As you peruse the current projected path of Rita almost directly over Galveston Bay, contemplate Jeff Masters’ latest analysis of the situation:

The latest runs of two key computer models, the GFS and GFDL, now indicate that the trough of low pressure that was expected to pick up Rita and pull her rapidly northward through Texas will not be strong enough to do so. Instead, these models forecast that Rita will make landfall near Galveston, penetrate inland between 50 and 200 miles, then slowly drift southwestward for nearly two days, as a high pressure ridge will build in to her north. Finally, a second trough is forecast to lift Rita out of Texas on Tuesday. If this scenario develops, not only will the coast receive catastrophic damage from the storm surge, but interior Texas, including the Dallas/Fort Worth area, might see a deluge of 15 – 30 inches of rain. A huge portion of Texas would be a disaster area.

This scenario is similar to that of Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 that caused catastrophic flooding throughout the Houston metropolitan area. Moreover, with Allison, Houston did not have to deal with the catastrophic wind damage that is almost certain to result from Rita. Although the new projected path of Rita is not good news for Houston, the prediction that the storm might slow down at landfall and stall over Texas and Louisiana is even worse.