The bloom is officially off the Stros‘ (63-54) streak after the lowly Pirates (51-67) took two out of three from the Stros over the weekend, including the last two in which the Stros could not manage a run. Ouch!
Thus, after getting back into the NL Wild Card playoff race with a 41-14 streak, the Stros are now 7-10 over their last 17 games. Unfortunately, that latter stretch is more representative of this Stros club’s ability-level. So, absent a late season acquisition of a strong hitter, it is not likely that this club will win the 27-30 games out of its last 45 that is probably necessary to clinch the Wild Card playoff spot.

The Stros continue to lead in the race for the NL Wild Card playoff spot, but the NL East teams that will probably overtake the Stros are gaining. The Phillies (63-55) and the Marlins (61-56) remain the strongest contenders, and the Nationals (62-55) continue to hang in the race although my sense is still that they will fade by Labor Day. Both the Cubs (57-61) and the Brewers (57-61) continue to fade from the race, although the Brewers are roughly as strong and certainly a better-balanced club than the Stros.
Combining each contending club’s runs created against average (“RCAA”, explained here) and its runs saved against average (“RSAA”, explained here) is a good measure of each club’s strength relative to the rest of the league, so here is how the clubs involved in the Wild Card race stack up:
Marlins 70 RCAA/1 RSAA = 71
Stros -21/79 = 58
Brewers 31/13 = 44
Mets 11/30 = 41 (59-58)
Phillies -32/58 = 26
Cubs 30/-14 = 16
Nationals -21/23 = 2
Thus, the Marlins remain the Stros’ strongest competition, and their pitching appears to be coming around at the right time. The Mets are better-balanced than the Stros, but may not be dominant enough in either the hitting or pitching area to string together the winning streak necessary to contend for the Wild Card. The Phillies continue to contend with even worse hitting than the Stros, so they are a prime candidate to fall back in the face soon.
Here are the Stros hitters’ individual RCAA through Saturday’s games, courtesy of Lee Sinins:
Morgan Ensberg 39
Lance Berkman 19
Craig Biggio 12
Orlando Palmeiro 12
Jason Lane 2
Jeff Bagwell 1
Eric Bruntlett -4
Luke Scott -4
Todd Self -4
Humberto Quintero -6
Jose Vizcaino -6
Willy Taveras -8
Raul Chavez -10
Chris Burke -15
Adam Everett -16
Mike Lamb -16
Brad Ausmus -17
The Stros team RCAA of -21 remains 11th among the 16 National League clubs. The Stros hitters continue to be well under-average as a group, even with productive performances from Ensberg (39/.394/.599/.993), Berkman (19/.403/.486/.889), Bidg (12/.339/.475/.814), and Palmeiro (12/.388/.513/.900), and Jason Lane (2/.312/.497/.809)’s second half surge toward respectability. One of the Stros’ biggest problems now appears to be Manager Phil Garner‘s incompetence, as he insists on giving substantial playing time to inferior players such as Taveras (-8/.333/.355/.688) and Burke (-15/.293/.304/.597). At this point in the season, there is no good reason to give substantial playing time to either Taveras or Burke in place of Palmeiro or Lane.
Which leads me to make an observation about Taveras, who is a good example of how many local media types (except for Charlie Pallilo, that is) and the Stros P.R. machine ignore facts in evaluating players. If you were to listen only to Milo Hamilton, then you would think Taveras is a viable Rookie-of-the-Year candidate and a sure-fire rising star as he is leading all MLB rookies in hits, batting average, games, singles, infield hits, bunt singles, and steals. And he may well be the Rookie-of-the-Year because the rookie class this season is relatively weak, and there is no question that Taveras has done a reasonably good job of making the difficult jump from Double A ball last season to the major leagues this season.
Nevertheless, Taveras is by no means a sure-fire star and — in the best of worlds — would have been better served by playing this season at Triple A Round Rock to work on his on-base percentage and slugging percentage. His lead in the above-described categories is nice, but a closer look shows that Taveras’ performance leaves a lot to be desired. He’s a below average hitter (-8 RCAA), a below average hitter for his position (CF) and thus, barely rates out as better than a replacement level player (i.e., the Stros would get about the same production from replacing Taveras with Eric Bruntlett (-4/.284/.425/.709). Taveras’ lack of power, the mediocre on-base percentage for a top of the lineup hitter, and his 74 strikeouts versus only 17 walks all raise serious questions about his future potential. Although he is only 23 and thus could improve with more experience, Taveras should not currently be an everyday player on a club that also is playing weak hitters such as Brad Ausmus (-17/.334/.295/.630)and Adam Everett (-16/.287/.366/.653).
By the way, run scoring is down considerably for the Stros this year. Their 2005 runs scored per game (R/G) is down over 14% from the 2004 season and 12.2% from their average R/G of 2002-2004. MLB-wide run scoring in 2005 is down just 3.5% from 2004, and just 1.6% from the cumulative 2002-2004 period. Consequently, don’t allow the Stros’ nice streak earlier in the season fool you — this club remains seriously hitting-deficient and needs to take bold steps in the off-season to bring in at least one far above-average hitter or at least two above-average hitters.
So, how have the Stros been able to overcome this abysmal hitting? Superior pitching can cover up a lot of warts, and the Stros have had outstanding pitching this season. Here are the Stros pitchers’ individual RSAA through Saturday’s games:
Roger Clemens 53
Roy Oswalt 33
Andy Pettitte 28
Dan Wheeler 14
Brad Lidge 10
Chad Qualls 4
Mike Gallo 3
Mike Burns 1
Chad Harville -3
John Franco -5
Russ Springer -7
Brandon Backe -10
Brandon Duckworth -12
Ezequiel Astacio -13
Wandy Rodriguez -17
The Stros team RSAA of 79 is 2nd among the 16 National League teams. Clemens (1st in NL RSAA), Oswalt (3rd in NL RSAA), and Pettitte (tied for 5th in NL RSAA) remain the strongest three starting pitchers on one team in MLB, while Lidge (despite a couple of blips over the weekend) and Wheeler are one of the strongest closing duos in the National League.
By the way, just to give you an idea of how good a level of pitching a club needs to overcome hitting as bad as this Stros team, Baseball Prospectus has a statistic called Runs Prevented (RP) that — similar to RSAA — measures how many runs a pitcher has kept from scoring relative to a league-average hurler throwing the same number of innings. If Clemens, Pettitte and Oswalt’s combined performance so far this season holds through the end of the regular season, then that trio’s combined RP total will be the best for three pitchers on one club in Major League Baseball history, better even than any season by the Braves’ troika of Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine during their heyday of the late 1990’s. Given that the Stros will certainly not win the NL Central with such superior starting pitching and may not make the playoffs at all, the foregoing is dispositive proof that this club needs a serious infusion of hitting talent to balance out a decidedly one-sided performance this season.
Finally, with this past Saturday night’s gem, Clemens reached 50 RSAA for the 5th time in a season. He is third in that category since 1900:
1 Lefty Grove 9
2 Randy Johnson 7
3 Roger Clemens 5
T4 Walter Johnson 4
T4 Pedro Martinez 4
T4 Greg Maddux 4
T7 Carl Hubbell 3
T7 Dazzy Vance 3
T9 Juan Marichal 2
T9 Hal Newhouser 2
T9 Steve Carlton 2
T9 Bobo Newsom 2
T9 Cy Young 2 (8 times total)
T9 Lefty Gomez 2
T9 Grover C Alexander 2
The Chronicle is reporting today that Clemens will undergo an MRI this week to determine the cause of his increasingly sore back, so stay tuned on that front. If the Stros lose Clemens for any appreciable amount of time, then their playoff chances are officially toast.
The Stros continue their long homestand this week against the Cubs and then the Brewers before making another West Coast swing after next weekend. The Stros really need to take four out of their next six games to have any reasonable hope of maintaining their slim lead in the Wild Card playoff race.