Prior posts here and here have highlighted the work of University of California at San Diego profeesor James D. Hamilton, who is one of the country’s foremost experts on the economics of energy prices.
In this recent post, Professor Hamilton analyzes the chances of whether the price of oil will hit $100 a barrel in the near future. Using the options market as a guide, Professor Hamilton estimates that there is about a 7 percent chance that the price will rise to that level by June 2006. On the other hand, there is about a 15 percent chance that the price will tumble below $40 a barrel by that same date. Which reminds me of the following exchange, noted in this earlier post, between a Wall Street Journal interviewer and Exxon Mobil CEO Lee Raymond on the rising price of oil:

WSJ Interviewer: Some people think prices will keep going up.
Mr. Raymond: Maybe. I’ll bet they’ll be lower at some point.