Last time we checked in on them, the Stros were coming off a successful homestand and feeling pretty good about themselves. However, after an atrocious roadie in which they lost five straight (including three shutouts) to the division-leading Cardinals (15-8) and the pathetic Pirates (8-15), the Stros (10-13) came home licking their wounds. And after frittering away yet another strong Rocket pitching performance in the Friday night opening game of the weekend homestand against the Cubs (12-12), things just didn’t look good at all.
However, the Stros’ bats finally came alive against the Cubs’ sore aces Wood and Prior in the Saturday and Sunday games, and the club won both games comfortably. So, the Stros come into their upcoming three game set against the Pirates feeling at least competitive at the plate again.
Despite last week’s losing streak and a 1-10 road record, the Stros are only a game or two below where I thought they would be one month into the “B.B.R” (“before Berkman returns”) portion of the season (Berkman is pictured left on a rehab assignment at AAA Round Rock). One month into the season, the Stros hitters have not hit quite as well as I thought they would, but their pitchers have pitched even better than I thought they would. Except for some managerial malpractice by Phil Garner in hitting Everett (.240 AVE/.326 OBP/.400 SLG) at lead-off for most of the season and in inexplicably giving Lamb (.262/.354/.571) — whose grand salami off of Prior was the key hit in Sunday’s win over the Cubs — roughly half the at bats of Luke Scott (.154/.250/.205) to date, the Stros probably would have won a game or two more.
As expected, hitting has been the problem for this Stros club. As measured by the all-important statistic of runs created against average (“RCAA” explained here), the Stros are tied with the Brewers (11-13) as the second-to-last hitting team in the National League through the first month of the season, above only the utterly incompetent Pirates. Only Lane (.295/.330/.557) Lamb and Bags (.263/.366/.434) have positive RCAA’s, although frankly CF Taveras (.267/.333/.387) has to be rated a pleasant surprise at being able to maintain a -2 RCAA through the first month of the season given that his defense has been generally superior (he threw out three Cubs at the plate over during the weekend series). Similarly, the -2 RCAA of SS Everett — whose defense has been typically superior and who has shown signs of becoming at least an average National League hitter this season — is probably acceptable at this stage of the season. Finally, after a hot start, Bidg (.265/.322/.434) has tailed off to a -1 RCAA, but at least his track record indicates that he will improve as the season progresses.
On the other hand, Ausmus (.231/.310/.269), Burke (.238/.289/.262), Ensberg (.246/.342/.377) and Scott have all have -4 RCAA, meaning that each of them have produced four fewer runs than an average National League hitter would have produced so far this season using the equivalent number of outs that each player used. Ausmus has been particularly awful, even by his notoriously low standards. In 57 plate appearances, Ausmus has had 10 singles, two doubles and five walks — it’s clearly time to give the newly-acquired Quintero a chance with the big club. It is almost certain that he could not be worse than Ausmus.
Although getting Berkman back will certainly help, the Stros hitting problems are more than one great hitter can cure. Bags’ power drain — his slugging percentage last season and this season is down over .100 points from the 2001 season — appears to be permanent. Ensberg still has not regained the stroke from his breakout 2003 season, and at age 39, Bidg is certainly no sure bet to hit much better than an average National League hitter this season. Moreover, the Stros’ top hitting prospects at AAA (LF Todd Self) and AA (CF Josh Anderson) have shown little power in the minors. Consequently, absent a trade for another slugger to complement Berkman, the Stros are likely stuck with this group of generally unproductive hitters for the remainder of the season.
Meanwhile, the Stros’ pitching has been nothing short of remarkable so far this season. Ranking fourth best in the National League behind only the Marlins (14-9), Braves (15-10), and Cardinals, every pitcher on the Stros’ staff except for “Home Run” Duckworth and Backe have a positive runs saved against average (“RSAA” explained here), and Backe has actually pitched reasonably well except for this adventure in St. Louis. The ageless Clemens leads the National League in RSAA through the first month of the season and the remainder of the staff members appear to be on their way to solid seasons. Accordingly, if the Stros can simply figure out a way to be an average National League team in hitting, the Stros’ pitching is good enough to carry the club into contention for at least the Wild Card playoff spot.
Some food for thought — is it time for the Stros to use some of their pitching talent in a trade to acquire more hitting? The Stros are loaded with at least five top pitching prospects at AAA Round Rock (Astacio, Wandy Rodriguez, and Jared Gothreaux) and AA Corpus Christi (Fernando Nieve and Jason Hirsch). Perhaps dangling Burke with one of two of those prospects would generate interest from a pitching starved club such as the Reds so that they would dangle one of their young slugging outfielders. Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, or Wily Mo Pena would sure look good in a Stros uniform.
The Stros need to make some hay during the upcoming home series against the hapless Pirates because that series is followed by a seven game road trip to Atlanta and Miami, two places where wins are rare. Pettitte pitches the Monday game before Ezequiel Astacio gets his first Major League start in the Tuesday game. After the following seven game roadie, the Stros return to MinuteMaid Park on Thursday, May 12th for a seven game homestand against the Giants (13-11) and the Diamondbacks (14-10). If the Stros come into the San Francisco series with at least a 16-17 record, then my sense is that they would still be on course for this season.