In this earlier post about the Stros failed effort to re-sign Carlos Beltran, I observed that sometimes the best deals for a ballclub turn out to be the ones that the club doesn’t make.
Despite the overpriced contracts that the Stros’ gave Bags and Richard Hidalgo, and the lesser mistakes that the club continues to make by unnecessarily signing such awful players as Brad Ausmus and merely mediocre ones such as Jose Vizcaino, the Stros by and large have done a reasonably good job over the past decade of allocating their limited payroll resources. The result has been a very good run over that span in which the club has won the National League Central Division four times (1997-1999; 2001), made the League Championship Series once (2004), and finished below second place in its division only once (2000).
To make you appreciate the Stros even more, consider the case of the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers have been to the playoffs exactly once (1987) since winning the World Series 20 years ago in 1984. Over the past 12 seasons, the club’s best finish has been third in their division, and the club has only accomplished that feat three times. During that span, the Tigers have finished dead last in their division exactly half (6) of the time. To give you an idea of how bad it has gotten in Detroit, the club improved its record last season by 29 games from the previous season and the Tigers still finished with a 72-90 record! Consequently, just as the Stros have been one of the most successful clubs in Major League Baseball over the past decade, it is fair to say that the Tigers have been among the most dreadful.
To give you an idea of why the Tigers are so chronically bad, take a look at the contract that the club just gave Magglio Ordonez:

The Detroit Tigers snared the last remaining premier free agent of the offseason, agreeing to a $75 million, five-year contract with outfielder Magglio Ordonez, . . . Ordonez’s deal could be worth up to $105 million over seven seasons, . . .

Probably to avoid a malpractice lawsuit from their fans over this contract negotiation, the Tigers at least hedged their risk on this absurd deal somewhat by negotiating an effective $12 million option to terminate the deal after one season if Ordonez is unable to play in a specified number of games during the upcoming season. The reason for that hedge is that Ordonez is coming off of knee surgery last season that led to the rare complication of bone marrow edema. A second surgery that was performed in Austria has reportedly cleared up that problem, but no one has even seen whether Ordonez can run at full speed at this point. Nevertheless, if Ordonez can limp through one season with the Tigers as a full-time player, the Tigers are on the hook to him for at least $75 million over the next five seasons.
Now, I like Ordonez as a player. I even thought it would be worth it for the Stros to take a flyer on him if they could have locked him up with a one year contract for say, $5-6 million with an option for $7 million. But what the Tigers have just committed to is, in a word, ludicrous.
Look, Ordonez had a very good five year run with the the White Sox (1999-2003) in which he developed power and the ability to draw a walk. His eight year career numbers (.307BA/.364OBA/.525SLG) are quite a bit better than Beltran’s seven year career numbers over the same period (.284/.353/.490).
However, the big difference between Ordonez and Beltran is that Ordonez did not become a starter until he was 26, so there is a high probability that his five year with the Sox was his peak performance period. Ordonez is now 31 and coming off of knee surgery, and even if he is able to return to playing everyday, the risk is huge that this contract will turn into a Bagwell-type albatross for the Tigers.
What on earth are the Tigers going to do if Ordonez fulfills his first year playing requirements and then becomes a .266/.377/.465 hitter like Bags was last season? In short, the Tigers would simply be using Ordonez’s contract to replace the absurdly overpriced contract that they gave to the then 30 year old Bobby Higginson in 2000, who proceeded to go downhill to the point where he provided the Tigers a pitiful .246/.353/.388 performance this past season. The Tigers are currently attempting to unload the $8.85 million that they currently owe Higginson under that contract.
Thus, as we ponder what could have been had the Stros been able to sign Beltran and elected to exercise their $9 million option on Jeff Kent, remember the Tigers. Sometimes the expensive deals that a club doesn’t make turn out to the ones that give young players such as Jason Lane and Chris Burke an opportunity to shine. As the past decade has shown us, it is far more likely that the Stros will be a better ballclub over the long haul by relying on development of such good talent within the organization than the Tigers will be throwing money at high risk contracts as those they gave Higginson and Ordonez.