This blog has often noted (for example, here, here and here) the increased utilization of statistical analysis in professional sports to evaluate player performance.
Now, statistical analysis of professional golf is on the rise. This fascinating Jamie Diaz Golf Digest article reviews the PGA’s Shotlink program, which is a statistical engine that has measured every shot by every player in nearly every tournament (the four majors excluded) over the past two years. ShotLink compiles data in more than 250 statistical categories for every player. However, other than the occasional pearl that a television golf analyst might offer, the general public has not been provided with any meaningful analysis of the underlying data that Shotlink has gathered.
Mr. Diaz’s article changes that. As he notes:
[W]hen it comes to addressing pro golf’s most interesting question–what separates the best from the very good–ShotLink shines. . . [F]ive [statistical categories] have clearly emerged as leading indicators and predictors of success: “birdie average,” “par breakers,” “par-5 scoring average,” “par-5 birdie percentage” and “going for the green” (the percentage of times a player tries to drive a par 4 or hit a par 5 in two.) In these stats in 2004, the worst ranking recorded by any of the top five players in the world–Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods, Ernie Els, Retief Goosen and Phil Mickelson–was eighth (Goosen in par breakers and Lefty in par-5 birdie percentage). Singh finished first in all but par-5 birdie percentage (Goosen led with 55.3). Woods and Els were in the top five in all five categories.
Moreover, Mr. Diaz notes that certain statistics that were previously thought to be important performance indicators really are not:
Meanwhile, categories commonly considered crucial to success were not as correlative. In greens in regulation, for example, Singh was second, but Mickelson was 10th, Goosen 17th, Woods T-47, and Els T-83. John Senden and Chris Smith, top-10 finishers in GIR, finished 114th and 115th on the money list. Nor did the long-valued total driving category (the total of rank in driving distance and driving accuracy) prove vital, with Mickelson finishing T-33, Goosen T-53, Singh T-50, Woods T-87, and Els T-112. The category leader was Jeff Brehaut, who had to return to Q school.
In addition, Shotlink generates some flat out incredible statistics:
In 2004, 31 players hit measured drives longer than 400 yards, the longest being 476 by Davis Love III on the launching pad of the downhill 18th at Kapalua’s Plantation course, site of the Mercedes Championships. Brad Faxon went 362 holes without a three-putt, and Ernie Els ranked 113th in sand saves. Although Sergio Garcia is statistically the best on tour between 125 and 150 yards, in the 34 statistical categories that measured his shots within 75 yards of the hole he is 122nd or worse in all but four of them, and no better than 45th in any of them.
362 holes without a three putt? Folks, that is over 20 rounds under tournament pressure without a three putt. That has to be on par with Joe Dimaggio’s record of having a base hit in 56 consecutive MLB games.