The Texans actually made a game of it against high-powered Peyton Manning and the Colts, but Manning methodically picked away at the Texans defense for six 4th quarter points to salt this one away for the Colts. The Texans closed to within 17-14 with about six minutes to go in the 3rd quarter, but the Texans could not mount any meaningful offense against an average Colts defense for the rest of the game (only two first downs and 35 yards in the 4th quarter). No team is going to beat this Colts team scoring 14 points.
Texans’ QB David Carr continues to be unimpressive in his development, which is best reflected by the Texans’ sputtering offense the past two weeks under his control. Although the mainstream media continues to fawn over Carr, he simply is not performing at the level that a top draft choice should be in his third season in the NFL.
Carr’s recognition skills continue to be mediocre, and his unorthodox throwing motion makes it difficult for him to take full advantage of the passing lanes. Moreover, Carr’statistical performance has been mediocre. Carr was 16-21 for 167 yards and an interception against the Colts, which means that his yards-per-pass — the key statistic for evaluating an NFL QB’s performance — was a pathetic 5.5 yards today. For the season, his yards-per-pass is about 6.3 yards, and he has thrown for only 13 TD’s against 12 interceptions.
By way of comparison, check out the statistics of Drew Brees, a QB with comparable experience to Carr who plays for a team that was about equal in stature to the Texans coming into this season. Brees has thrown for 23 TD’s against only 6 interceptions, and his yards-per-pass is over a half yard per pass better than Carr’s. As a result, Brees’ QB rating is over 103, while Carr’s rating is less than 85. More importantly, the Chargers are 10-3 and the Texans are 5-8.
Inasmuch as the rest of the Texans’ team played well enough to win for the second week in a row, the Texans’ management has a huge problem developing with Carr. The Texans have a ton of money invested in him, but it’s becoming clearer with each game that Carr is nothing more than an average NFL QB, at best. With games at Chicago and Jacksonville the next two Sundays before closing at home on January 2nd against the Browns, the Texans’ management must begin addressing whether they have a bust on their hands with Carr. Inasmuch as the Texans’ offensive line still has not completely recovered from the failed Tony Boselli transaction, the Texans can ill-afford to have their overall offensive development stunted by a QB that is not developing at the same rate as the rest of the unit. And at this point, Carr certainly is not.
The Cowboys are the only organization in the NFL that begins printing playoff tickets with a 5-7 record. However, after the woeful Saints humiliated the Pokes at home on Sunday, the 5-8 Cowboys will now simply be playing out the string in their last three games against the Eagles, Redskins and Giants. The Cowboys have more personnel problems overall than the Texans, so this is a franchise that is clearly in a serious rebuilding mode.
It’s going to take at least two seasons for the Cowboys to have a realistic chance for the playoffs, and that assumes that they acquire a top flight QB as soon as possible. If they draft a QB, then this team is a good three seasons away from being a playoff team. It will be interesting to see if the Big Tuna has the stomach to stick around during a long rebuilding phase. My bet is that he does not.
You don’t think two first-round picks could jump start the Boys next year, along with a free agent like Drew Brees?
A guy can hope, can’t he? 🙂
On Carr, another question for you — a lot of people had similar doubts about Troy Aikman early on, until the Cowboys got rid of David Shula as offensive coordinator and brought in Norv Turner. Then things seems to take off. Do you think Palmer is around next year after this disappointing season and Carr’s depressing development?
Drew Brees’s father taught me Advanced Civil Litigation during law school. It seems both UT and aTm passed on Drew due to a knee injury…sheesh.
I hope Drew continues to develop.
Kev, the league scuttlebutt is that Brees is going to Green Bay to replace Favre, but you never know. I’m sure that Brees would love to play for the Cowboys if it could be arranged — His family still resides in Austin. However, absent that type of deal for an experienced QB, I just don’t see the Cowboys competing for a playoff spot anytime soon, even with the two first round draft choices in the next draft.
Given Bob McNair’s nature, I do not see major coaching staff changes being made after this season. The Texans’ management understands that their offensive line is still deficient, and my sense is that they are attributing at least a good part of Carr’s lagging development to that deficiency. Thus, I’m betting that this staff has at least another season before Casserly might recommend a change. And you can bet that Bob McNair will not make these types of changes with Casserly’s recommendation — Bob is keenly aware of the problems that meddling owners can cause in football operations (he saw Bud Adams operate for a long time). Bob simply will not operate in that way.
Oops, that last comment should read “‘without’ Casserly’s recommendation . . .”
I cannot understand what the Texans offense is doing. Andre Johnson, as he has demonstrated this year, is one of those rare WRs who has the ability to get the ball regardless of the coverage. The announcers were practically begging Carr to throw to Johnson–you’ve got to take some chances and throw him the ball, b/c if he’s around it, he’s athletic and strong enough to take it away from virtually any DB.
Or do what they did last week. Say hike and throw him the ball. He’s too big and too fast–it’s guaranteed 5 yds, and if he breaks just one tackle, it’s a first down for sure.
You have an amazing weapon at WR, one of the very best in the league. You HAVE TO THROW HIM THE DAMN BALL.
TP, in defense of the Texans’ offensive coaching staff, other teams have figured out how to deal with Johnson. They are playing a corner on him at the line of scrimmage and then providing deep help with a safety in a two deep coverage. The only way to make defenses pay for that scheme is to run the ball effectively so that the defenses have to move at least one of their safeties up to defend the run and throw effectively to the other WR’s to make the defenses pay for the attention that they are paying to Johnson.
The Texans are actually running the ball decently, but Carr’s poor recognition skills prevent him from making the defense pay for doubling down on Johnson. Against the Colts, it was obvious that Carr was not even looking downfield at his WR’s in deference to throwing underneath the two deep coverage to Davis. Unless that changes (and I don’t think it will because of Carr’s deficient recognition skills), defenses will gladly continue to take Johnson out of the game in the manner described above.
Interestingly, most of Carr’s long passes to Johnson season earlier this season involved getting single coverage on Johnson and then having Carr simply throw the ball up for Johnson to go get. The Texans won’t see that type of coverage on Johnson again until Carr makes defenses pay for the two deep coverage that they are currently using on Johnson.
Tom,
Being a Miami Hurricanes fan, I am all too familiar with two-deep coverage and the myriad ways to exploit it. To be sure, going over the top is difficult against a two-deep zone, but the Colts’ safeties are small (Mike Doss, Bob Sanders), and I’m not convinced they’re very good, either. In theory, the 2-deep zone makes it difficult to go over the top, but that theory changes dramatically depending on whom you are playing.
And when you are playing the Colts, a 2-deep zone absolutely should NOT preclude throwing deep to AJ a few times a game. He is signifcantly better than whomever is covering him from the Colts.
Moreover, 2-deep coverage is designed to take away the deep routes. There are many, many different routes a WR can run to take advantage of 2-deep coverage, especially if the secondary isn’t very good (and the Colts’ secondary isn’t). 2-deep coverage leaves the middle of the field wide freaking open. take a three-wide set, and run AJ from the slot position. Have him run a seam route, while the two outside WRs force the safeties to stay back. Easy play.
Or, play him outside and run him on a post or square in, while the slot WR runs an deep up and out to draw the safety.
There’s so many ways to attack 2-deep/bracket coverage. The failure to even attempt to get AJ the ball is mind-boggling, especially when, as you note, the running game was working.