May 21, 2012
Those dang unintended consequences
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May 20, 2012
Reassessing risk for the terminally ill
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May 19, 2012
Nassim Taleb on J.P. Morgan
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May 18, 2012
The Leverage Cycle
John Geanakoplos, the James Tobin Professor of Economics at Yale University, discusses the perils of leverage in regard to the current global economic situation.
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May 15, 2012
Moms against the most senseless war
As the late Milton Friedman pointed out: "The case for prohibiting drugs is exactly as strong and as weak as the case for prohibiting people from overeating."
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May 14, 2012
A Terrible Law
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May 7, 2012
How to fix U.S. airports
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May 2, 2012
A 50-year energy plan
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April 26, 2012
Charles Murray on Coming Apart
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April 17, 2012
How to heal medicine?
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April 16, 2012
Bruce Schneier on the real security threats
Posted by Tom at 6:25 AM
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March 27, 2012
The missing link of renewable energy
M.I.T. professor Donald Sadoway explains the challenges of bringing renewable energy to market.
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March 22, 2012
T. Boone on the potential of natural gas
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March 19, 2012
Sex offender lepers
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February 28, 2012
Detained for Babysitting While White
Scott Henson authors the popular Austin-based blog Grits for Breakfast, which has been cited numerous times on this blog over the years on a variety of criminal justice issues.
Two Fridays ago, Henson and his wife were babysitting their five year-old granddaughter, Ty. After an evening at a neighborhood recreation center, Henson -- who is white -- and his granddaughter -- who is black -- started to walk to his home, which is just a few blocks from the rec center.
Some busybody saw Henson and his granddaughter walking home, called police and alleged that a kidnapping was in progress.
From that point on, all hell broke loose.
Henson and his granddaughter were stopped twice by different law enforcement agencies while walking home (remarkably, this wasn't the first time this sort of thing has happened to Scott and his granddaughter). The second stop -- which was recorded by the Austin Police Department below -- resulted in Henson being handcuffed and detained for over 10 minutes by a half-dozen or so APD officers while his terrorized granddaughter was hauled off to sit in the back of a squad car. An APD officer then contacted Henson's wife, Henson's wife contacted his daughter, who called and verified his relationship with Ty. APD then let Henson and Ty go home.
Subsequently, Henson blogged about the ordeal and got a couple of facts wrong. APD Chief Art Acevedo went on the offensive and claimed that Henson had lied about what he had been put through. As is usually the case in such matters, people then take sides and nothing productive is resolved.
I mean really -- how many kidnappers would be leisurely walking along a neighborhood sidewalk? When Henson informed officers that he lived two blocks away, was it really necessary for APD officers to handcuff Henson in front of his granddaughter, even while she was crying out "That's my grandpa!"? Despite the obvious close relationship between Henson and his granddaughter, there isn't much doubt that Henson would have been detained for much longer if his daughter had been in a movie or other activity in which she would have been unavailable to take a phone call.
It's unfortunate that Henson got a couple of facts wrong in his blog post, but I certainly understand how his recollection of events could be affected by the stress of the situation.
But it's far more unfortunate that Chief Acevedo views what happened to Henson as appropriate police work. Yeah, it certainly could have been handled worse. But APD's conduct still looks over-the-top and excessive to me, particularly in regard to a 22-year resident of a neighborhood.
And to add a final issue that no one involved seems to be addressing -- Just who the hell called in the report of the alleged kidnapping?
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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February 27, 2012
The Power of Medicine
Nobel Prize winner Peter Agre talks about the power of medicine, even in regard the knotty problem of North Korea.
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February 21, 2012
Richard Epstein on health care markets
H/T David Henderson.
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February 17, 2012
Testing Milton Friedman
Testing Milton Friedman - preview from Free To Choose Network on Vimeo.
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February 16, 2012
American Experience - "Clinton"
The American Experience biography of Bill Clinton premieres February 20-21 on PBS.
Watch Clinton Chapter 1 on PBS. See more from American Experience.
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February 13, 2012
The challenge of opening science
Physicist Michael Nielson explains Michael Nielsen explains why scientists should embrace new technological tools for collaboration that will facilitate discoveries. A related Q & A is here.
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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February 8, 2012
The unintended consequences of non-lethal weapons
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January 23, 2012
Ashdown on the global power shift
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January 20, 2012
QE explained
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January 18, 2012
Atheism 2.0
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December 23, 2011
"So much inconvenience for so little benefit at such a staggering cost"
Charles C. Mann meets security expert Bruce Schneier to assess the state of the Transportation Security Administration's security theater at U.S. airports:
Since 9/11, the U.S. has spent more than $1.1 trillion on homeland security.
To a large number of security analysts, this expenditure makes no sense. The vast cost is not worth the infinitesimal benefit. Not only has the actual threat from terror been exaggerated, they say, but the great bulk of the post-9/11 measures to contain it are little more than what Schneier mocks as "security theater": actions that accomplish nothing but are designed to make the government look like it is on the job. In fact, the continuing expenditure on security may actually have made the United States less safe. [. . .]
To walk through an airport with Bruce Schneier is to see how much change a trillion dollars can wreak. So much inconvenience for so little benefit at such a staggering cost. And directed against a threat that, by any objective standard, is quite modest. Since 9/11, Islamic terrorists have killed just 17 people on American soil, all but four of them victims of an army major turned fanatic who shot fellow soldiers in a rampage at Fort Hood. (The other four were killed by lone-wolf assassins.) During that same period, 200 times as many Americans drowned in their bathtubs. Still more were killed by driving their cars into deer. . . .
Read the entire article. It is a sad reflection of the increasing non-responsiveness of government that this utter nonsense continues to be foisted upon U.S. citizens.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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December 16, 2011
Voices from the front lines of America's worst war
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December 15, 2011
Inspiring action
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December 6, 2011
The paradox of income equality
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December 1, 2011
Can Technology be Society's Economic Engine?
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November 30, 2011
Philosophy in Prison
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November 21, 2011
Tory Gattis' Open City of Opportunity
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November 15, 2011
Protecting Houston from the next killer hurricane
Recommendations from Rice University's Severe Storm Prediction, Education and Evacuation from Disasters (SSPEED) Center. But do we have enough financial clout to pull this off while financing an array of expensive urban boondoggles?
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October 31, 2011
The Unintended Consequences of Prohibition
The futile and damaging nature of drug prohibition is a frequent topic on this blog, so check out this Nick Gillespie interview of Ken Burns on the unintended consequences of prohibition and then review this Radley Balko/Freedom Daily article on the enormous collateral damage of drug prohibition.
A truly civil society would find a better way.
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October 30, 2011
Gladwell on the Norden Bombsight
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October 29, 2011
Colbert and that entertaining form of corruption
Stephen Colbert provides his amusing spin on the corruption of big-time college sports by interviewing Taylor Branch, author of the e-book The Cartel, which is an expanded version of Branch's cover story from the October issue of The Atlantic, The Shame of College Sports (H/T Jay Christensen).
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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October 28, 2011
Epstein on the benefits of inequality
In less than ten minutes, Clear Thinkers favorite Richard Epstein lucidly explains the societal benefits of providing economic incentives that produce inequality in a market economy (H/T Bart Bentley).
Watch Does U.S. Economic Inequality Have a Good Side? on PBS. See more from PBS NewsHour.
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October 18, 2011
Barriers to Action
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October 6, 2011
The promise of the driverless auto
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September 20, 2011
Niall Ferguson on The Great Divergence
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September 19, 2011
Obama’s hypocrisy on drug prohibition
There are many reasons to be disappointed about Barack Obama's presidency, but arguably no reason is more galling than Obama's failure to back up his campaign promise to re-evaluate the federal government's dubious drug prohibition policy.
Jacob Sullum sums up Obama's hypocrisy on drug prohibition in this masterful Reason.com op-ed:
It is not hard to see how critics of the war on drugs got the impression that Barack Obama was sympathetic to their cause. Throughout his public life as an author, law professor, and politician, Obama has said and done things that suggested he was not a run-of-the-mill drug warrior....
[But] Obama's drug policies ... by and large have been remarkably similar to his predecessor's. With the major exception of crack sentences, which were substantially reduced by a law the administration supported, Obama has not delivered what reformers hoped he would. His most conspicuous failure has been his policy on medical marijuana, which is in some ways even more aggressively intolerant than George W. Bush's, featuring more-frequent raids by the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), ruinous IRS audits, and threats of prosecution against not only dispensaries but anyone who deals with them. "I initially had high hopes," says Marsha Rosenbaum, "but now believe Obama has abdicated drug policy to the DEA."
It would be going too far to say that Obama has been faking it all these years, that he does not really care about the injustices perpetrated in the name of protecting Americans from the drugs they want. But he clearly does not care enough to change the course of the life-wrecking, havoc-wreaking war on drugs....
We know how Obama responds when the question of marijuana legalization comes up in public: He laughs. The highest-rated questions submitted for his "virtual town meeting" in March 2009 dealt with pot prohibition. "I don't know what this says about the online audience," Obama said with a smirk, eliciting laughter from the live audience, "but...this was a fairly popular question."
Obama's dismissive attitude was especially galling in light of his own youthful pot smoking, which he presents in Dreams From My Father as a cautionary tale of near-disaster followed by redemption. "Junkie. Pothead," he writes. "That's where I'd been headed: the final, fatal role of the would-be black man." Judging from the reports of friends interviewed by The New York Times in 2008, Obama exaggerated his brush with addiction for dramatic effect. More important, he has never publicly acknowledged the plain truth that people who smoke pot rarely become junkies or suffer any other serious harm as a result -- unless they get caught.
As Richard Nixon's National Commission on Marihuana and Drug Abuse pointed out when Obama was all of 10 years old, the biggest risk people face when they smoke pot is created by the government's attempts to stop them. In 1977, when Obama was a pot-smoking high school student in Honolulu, President Jimmy Carter advocated decriminalizing marijuana possession, telling Congress that "penalties against possession of a drug should not be more damaging to an individual than the use of the drug itself."
That is hardly a radical position. Polls indicate that most Americans think pot smokers should not be treated like criminals...
In New York City, where marijuana arrests have increased dramatically since the late 1990s, blacks are five times as likely to be busted as whites. The number of marijuana arrests by the New York Police Department (NYPD) from 1997 through 2006 was 11 times the number in the previous 10 years, despite the fact that possession of up to 25 grams (about nine-tenths of an ounce) has been decriminalized in New York....
Obama attended Columbia University in the early 1980s, well before the big increase in marijuana arrests that began a decade later. There were about 858,000 pot arrests nationwide in 2009, more than twice the number in 1980, and the crackdown has been especially aggressive in New York City under Mayors Rudolph Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg (another former pot smoker). "The odds are not bad," observes Ethan Nadelmann, "that a young Barry Obama, using marijuana at Columbia, might have been arrested had the NYPD been conducting the number of marijuana arrests then that it is now."
A misdemeanor marijuana conviction could have been a life-changing event for Obama, interrupting his education, impairing his job prospects, and derailing his political career before it began. It would not have been fair, but it would have spared us the sorry spectacle of a president who champions a policy he once called "an utter failure" and who literally laughs at supporters whose objections to that doomed, disastrous crusade he once claimed to share.
Inasmuch as I do pro bono work in the juvenile justice system, I experience first hand the absurdly destructive effects of the drug prohibition policy on young people and their families. We get the quality of political representatives that we deserve, but Obama's disingenuousness and insensitivity with regard to the government's drug prohibition is reprehensible even by the low standards by which we evaluate U.S. politicians. That no Republican Presidential candidate other than Ron Paul is willing to take Obama to task for his hypocrisy is a reflection of the sad state of political discourse in this country.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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September 13, 2011
How to win this particular war
In the context of the ten-year anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, Spencer Ackerman reminds us of the point that James Fallows and others have been making for over five years - the most effective way to defeat terrorism is to refuse to be terrorized:
In case you haven't noticed, hysteria is what the terrorists want. In fact, it's the only win a decapitated, weakened al-Qaida can get these days. The only hope that these eschatological conspiracy theorists possess for success lies in compelling the U.S. to spend its way into oblivion and pursue ill-conceived wars. That's how Osama bin Laden transforms from a cave-dwelling psycho into a world-historical figure -- not because of what he was, but because of how we reacted to him.
And that points to the only way out of a trap that's lasted a decade. It has nothing to do with national security and everything to do with politics. The U.S. has to embrace the reality that terrorism is not anything remotely like the existential threat we make it out to be. We can honor those 2,996 without being permanently haunted by them.[. . .]
The risk, in other words, is a political risk. The culture of fear: It's a bipartisan race to the bottom. And it's why the National Security State constructed by the George W. Bush administration has found a diligent steward in President Obama. Asked recently if the post-9/11 security apparatus might diminish soon now that al-Qaida looks weak, Janet Napolitano, the secretary of homeland security, replied, "No." [. . .]
Only when citizens make it acceptable for politicians to recognize that the threat of terrorism isn't so significant can the country finally get what it really needs, 10 years later: closure.
Read the entire piece. That citizens still have to endure such outrages as security theater reinforces the truth of what Ackerman writes.
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September 5, 2011
"A cunning tax on everyone else"
If you don't read anything else this Labor Day weekend, check out this Nassim Taleb/Mark Spitznagel op-ed on the impact of dubious government bailout of Wall Street and big banks over the past several years:
For the American economy - and for many other developed economies - the elephant in the room is the amount of money paid to bankers over the last five years. In the United States, the sum stands at an astounding $2.2 trillion. Extrapolating over the coming decade, the numbers would approach $5 trillion, . . . That $5 trillion dollars is not money invested in building roads, schools and other long-term projects, but is directly transferred from the American economy to the personal accounts of bank executives and employees.
Such transfers represent as cunning a tax on everyone else as one can imagine. It feels quite iniquitous that bankers, having helped cause today's financial and economic troubles, are the only class that is not suffering from them - and in many cases are actually benefiting.
As I've been saying for years, it's not rocket science.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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August 29, 2011
Milton Friedman on the futility of changing legislators
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August 25, 2011
Three Myths about Capitalism
H/T Greg Mankiw.
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August 23, 2011
The flawed theory of bailout
A couple of items from over the weekend are well worth reading for those who are interested in financial health of the U.S.
First, the Wall Street Journal's Holman Jenkins, Jr. notes that Bank of America's declining value reflects that the federal government's bailout of Wall Street during the financial crisis of 2008 has been of dubious merit:
Let's revisit the theory of the bailout. The government holds a safety net under the financial system, preventing a worse panic, with consumers and business cutting back spending more radically, with more people losing jobs, with more houses going into foreclosure.
It made sense on paper and underlies claims today that the government has been a net profiter from its bailout activities.
But it becomes apparent that the 2008 crisis isn't over. And our bailout strategy?
In one presumed lesson of the Great Depression, a splurge of deficit-financed spending is supposed to support the economy while consumers and businesses get over their shellshock. But as George Soros noted to Der Spiegel, the U.S. government in the 1930s wasn't saddled with huge debt. Unless today's deficit spending is visibly directed at projects with a positive return, he says, it just frightens the public that the government itself is going bankrupt.
Meanwhile, this Bradley Keoun and Phil Kuntz/Bloomberg article reports that the Federal Reserve loaned an astonishing $1.2 trillion to Wall Street during the 2008 crisis. Interestingly, that amount is roughly equal to the amount that U.S. homeowners currently own on 6.5 million delinquent and foreclosed mortgages.
The foregoing does not surprise regular readers of this blog. Efficient operation of markets depend in large part on the allocation of losses based on who took the risk of loss. Remove the consequences of that risk and the result is that the politically well-connected profit, not necessarily those who carefully assessed and hedged risk.
Remember, it's not rocket science.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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August 22, 2011
So, why shouldn't the rich pay more taxes?
Warren Buffett's NY Times op-ed of last week generated a substantial dose of self-righteous indignation.
I mean, really. If someone as wealthy as Warren Buffett thinks that the mega-rich people should pay more taxes, then why shouldn't they?
Although the issue seems so simple, as with many things in life, it's not.
Apart from the fact that Buffett is not averse to taking positions that protect himself at the expense of others, the taxes that the mega-rich pay are already highly disproportionate.
And as Jeff Miron notes, assessing even an additional 10% surcharge on taxpayers earning over $1 million would not generate enough to make a meaningful difference in reducing the budget deficit. Miron zeroes in on Buffett's error in reasoning in the following passage:
Buffett errs, most fundamentally, by focusing on outcomes rather than policies. The right question is which policies promote differences in incomes that reflect hard work, energy, innovation and creativity, rather than reward the unethical, the politically connected and the tax-savvy.
In economics, as in sports, we should adopt good rules and insist that everyone play by them. Then we should stand back and applaud the winners.
Indeed, check out what David Logan discovered when he crunched the numbers:
So taking half of the yearly income from every person making between one and ten million dollars would only decrease the nation's debt by 1%. Even taking every last penny from every individual making more than $10 million per year would only reduce the nation's deficit by 12 percent and the debt by 2 percent. There's simply not enough wealth in the community of the rich to erase this country's problems by waving some magic tax wand.
Finally, to put everything in perspective, think about what would need to be done to erase the federal deficit this year: After everyone making more than $200,000/year has paid taxes, the IRS would need to take every single penny of disposable income they have left. Such an act would raise approximately $1.53 trillion. It may be economically ruinous, but at least this proposal would actually solve the problem.
And as Charles Koch and Harvey Golub note, it's not as if government has distinguished itself in the way in which it has used tax revenues.
Meanwhile, Peter Gordon insightfully points out why indulging in class warfare against the wealthy is dangerous.
Timothy Snyder's Bloodlands (Basic, 2010) reminds us of the horrors of what occurs when the dynamics of racial and class warfare collide.
Are those who fan such flames confident that similar outrages could not happen here and now?
Or do they even care?
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August 19, 2011
So, what's the plan?
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August 9, 2011
It's mostly about trust
In early 2005, back when Eliot Spitzer was taking his first pot-shots at American International Group, Inc., I wrote this blog post explaining how even mighty AIG could suffer a fate similar to that of Enron Corporation.
Inasmuch as AIG had a net worth of about $80 billion at the time coming off a previous year of $11 billion in net income on almost $100 billion in revenues, no one (including me) thought there was much of a chance that what I was suggesting could happen to AIG would actually happen to the firm.
Less than four years later, AIG would have suffered the same fate as Enron but for a massive federal government bailout.
The lesson here is that if creditors trust the federal government, then the government's credit standing will remain high regardless of what the New York analysts say. In reality, the market rates the government's credit continuously each moment of every day. Just look at fluctuations in interest rates on government debt.
So remember, regardless of what the Washington pols suggest, this is not rocket science.
Quite simply, it's mostly about trust.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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August 7, 2011
The one-dimensional man
The late Duke University philosophy professor Rick Roderick talks about, among other things, the underpinnings of the drug culture of the United States.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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August 1, 2011
The cult of overcriminalization
Last week, this Gary Fields/John Emshwiller article addressed an issue that this blog has hammered on for years - the absurd overcriminalization of life in the United States:
The U.S. Constitution mentions three federal crimes by citizens: treason, piracy and counterfeiting. By the turn of the 20th century, the number of criminal statutes numbered in the dozens. Today, there are an estimated 4,500 crimes in federal statutes, according to a 2008 study by retired Louisiana State University law professor John Baker.
There are also thousands of regulations that carry criminal penalties. Some laws are so complex, scholars debate whether they represent one offense, or scores of offenses.
Counting them is impossible. The Justice Department spent two years trying in the 1980s, but produced only an estimate: 3,000 federal criminal offenses.
The American Bar Association tried in the late 1990s, but concluded only that the number was likely much higher than 3,000. The ABA's report said "the amount of individual citizen behavior now potentially subject to federal criminal control has increased in astonishing proportions in the last few decades."
A Justice spokeswoman said there was no quantifiable number. Criminal statutes are sprinkled throughout some 27,000 pages of the federal code. [. . .]
Great point, but it would have been more meaningful had the WSJ admitted its complicity in promoting the overcriminalization culture in the first place.
Oh well. This Heritage Foundry post does a good job of placing the overcriminalization issue in perspective.
My question is this: Is it reasonable to think that it is possible for Congress to curtail overcriminalization when Congress to date has been incapable of striking down something as clearly unreasonable as the abuses of security theater?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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July 27, 2011
Rory Stewart on the Afghan War
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July 26, 2011
A brush with governmental bankruptcy
As Washington dithers over whether the federal government should default on its debt obligations, it is helpful to remember that New York City faced the same problem a generation ago.
This Financial Times video provides an excellent overview of the background and implications of that financial crisis.
Remember the government's fear mongers from 2008?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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July 25, 2011
Reflecting on the Space Shuttle
The space shuttle Atlantis' landing this past Thursday was the end of an era of U.S. space exploration.
Lawrence Krauss contends that the space shuttle was a dud and that we can do better in space exploration. Former shuttle program manager Wayne Hale disagrees and believes that the shuttle program was worthwhile.
Meanwhile, Neil deGrasse Tyson asserts in the video below that the space shuttle program was never really about the promotion of science in the first place.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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June 28, 2011
Why security theater survives
The latest security theater outrage from the Transportation Security Administration almost defies belief - forcing a dying, elderly woman in a wheelchair to remove her soiled diaper before she could board a flight to go die peacefully near her relatives.
And what is even more outrageous is the TSA's official response to public outcry over the incident:
"We have reviewed the circumstances involving this screening and determined that our officers acted professionally and according to proper procedure."
In other words, the TSA followed its self-prescribed "process," so what it did must have been right regardless of the consequences to a dying 95 year-old.
Such reasoning is preposterous, of course. But, as Cato's Jim Harper explains, the TSA and other governmental agencies routinely get away with such nonsense because of the bureaucratic prime directive - i.e., maximize discretionary budget:
The TSA pursues the bureaucratic prime directive--maximize budget--by assuming, fostering, and acting on the maximum possible threat. So a decade after 9/11, TSA and Department of Homeland Security officials give strangely time-warped commentary whenever they speechify or testify, recalling the horrors of 2001 as if it's 2003.
The prime directive also helps explain why TSA has expanded its programs following each of the attempts on aviation since 9/11, even though each of them has failed. For a security agency, security threats are good for business. TSA will never seek balance, but will always promote threat as it offers the only solution: more TSA.
Because of countervailing threats to its budget--sufficient outrage on the part of the public--TSA will withdraw from certain policies from time to time. But there is no capacity among the public to sustain "outrage" until the agency is actually managing risk in a balanced and cost-effective way. . . .
TSA should change its policy, yes, but its fundamental policies will not change. Episodes like this will continue indefinitely against a background of invasive, overwrought airline security that suppresses both the freedom to travel and the economic well-being of the country.
As with overcriminalization and drug prohibition policies, the TSA's policies are an ominous reflection of a federal government with bipartisan support that is increasingly remote and unresponsive to U.S. citizens.
Have the incumbent leaders of both political parties become too insulated to address these policies effectively and modify them?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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June 21, 2011
The Rule of Law
In an insightful scene from the Academy Award-winning movie A Man for All Seasons, one of Sir Thomas More's apprentices -- Richard Rich -- confronts Thomas while he is chatting with his wife, daughter, and his daughter's fiancee, Will Roper, who is an aspiring lawyer.
Rich proceeds to beg Sir Thomas for a political appointment, which Thomas refuses because he knows that Rich is prone toward corruption and would never be able to resist the bribes that he would be offered in such an appointment. Sir Thomas thought Rich should pursue a career as a teacher to avoid such temptations.
An embittered Rich proceeds to leave Sir Thomas and his family to take a political job with Thomas Cromwell, who has been ordered by King Henry to pressure Thomas to take the King's oath forsaking Catholicism and the Pope. It is obvious to everyone in the room that the resentful Rich will ultimately betray Sir Thomas, which indeed he does later in the story.
Rich's departure leads to the following exchange in which Sir Thomas lucidly explains to his family members the importance of maintaining the rule of law and not trumping up charges even in regard to an unsavory man who will betray him:
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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June 19, 2011
Resolved: America Should Legalize Drugs
Jeffrey Miron and Robert DuPont, M.D. debate at the Cato Institute whether the governmental policy of drug prohibition should be continued or ended.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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June 17, 2011
Energy Economics 101
Sounds as if Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Connecticut Senator Richard Blumenthal missed Energy Economics 101 in school. But that doesn't stop them from publicizing their utter ignorance (H/T Byron Hood) of basic energy economics:
Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. introduced legislation today that would require the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to impose strict regulations on oil speculators, who some blame for rising gasoline prices.
Sanders said if the agency failed to meet the two-week deadline outlined in his legislation, he would call for the resignation of commission chair Gary Gensler.
The legislation, if passed, would cap the amount of oil that speculators are allowed to buy and sell annually to 20 million barrels, increase the amount of money investors would have to back bets with from 6 to 12 percent and redefine investment banks as speculators rather than hedgers - investors who use the product they are buying for business.
The bill would limit speculators' influence over the energy futures market. [. . .]
"There is mounting evidence that the increased price of gasoline has nothing to do with supply and demand and everything to do with Wall Street speculators jacking up oil and gas prices in the energy futures market," Sanders said. [. . .]
Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., a co-sponsor of the bill, said: "These price increases have been absolutely crushing. We need to attack these increasing prices that are the result of gaming and gambling. The CFTC should have acted five months ago." [. . .]
The instinct of most politicians and much of the mainstream media is to embrace simple "villain and victim" morality plays when attempting to explain price increases in markets or investment loss.
The more nuanced story about the financial decisions that underlie the market fluctuations doesn't garner enough votes or sell enough newspapers to generate much interest from the politicians or muckrakers.
That's why we are again enduring demagoguery regarding speculators. Thus, it's important that citizens who are not familiar with the function of speculation in markets take a moment to learn about its beneficial nature.
For example, check out Mark Perry's excellent primer on futures trading here, here and here.
Or read University of Houston finance professor Craig Pirrong's fine overview of how speculation in oil and gas markets actually helps all of us in dealing with rising energy prices.
Or peruse this Matthew Lynn/Bloomberg piece on how bubbles in oil markets are a reason to celebrate.
In Texas, one has to look no farther than Southwest Airlines' success to understand the beneficial nature of speculation. Over most of the past decade, Southwest has taken advantage of futures markets to hedge its fuel costs (previous posts on Southwest's hedging program are here). That hedging program has been one of the major factors in allowing Southwest to become the most (and one of the only) profitable U.S. airlines.
So, what Sanders and Blumenthal are really trying to do is restrict the very markets that provided Southwest and many other businesses with the platform on which they hedged fuel-cost and other business risk. The wealth and lower prices that is generated from those hedges is not inconsequential.
Stay informed fellow citizens. Demagogues such as Sanders and Blumenthal can inflict real damage on all of us.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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June 10, 2011
Math of the Incarceration Nation
The appalling U.S. incarceration rate has been a frequent topic on this blog, so this Veronique de Rugy/Reason.com piece on the troubling numbers involved in the U.S. prison systems caught my eye:
In 2009, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, there were 1,524,513 prisoners in state and federal prisons. When local jails are included, the total climbs to 2,284,913. These numbers are not just staggering; they are far above those of any other liberal democracy in both absolute and per capita terms. The International Centre for Prison Studies at King's College London calculates that the United States has an incarceration rate of 743 per 100,000 people, compared to 325 in Israel, 217 in Poland, 154 in England and Wales, 96 in France, 71 in Denmark, and 32 in India.
Incredibly, de Rugy reports that research indicates that approximate 60 per cent of those prisoners are non-violent offenders (i.e., mostly possession of illegal drug defendants). What is one of direct costs of the drug prohibition policy?:
[S]tate correctional spending has quadrupled in nominal terms in the last two decades and now totals $52 billion a year, consuming one out of 14 general fund dollars. Spending on corrections is the second fastest growth area of state budgets, following Medicaid. According to a 2009 report from the Pew Center on the States, keeping an inmate locked up costs an average of $78.95 per day, more than 20 times the cost of a day on probation.
And, as de Rugy goes on to point out, these direct costs don't even approach the indirect costs of locking up non-violent offenders with hardened criminals and leaving the children of non-violent criminals without the support of a parent during the prison sentence.
A truly civilized society would find a better way.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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June 9, 2011
The Constitutional Case for Marriage Equality
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June 8, 2011
Miami Mega Jail
The closest that many citizens will get to the soft underbelly of the U.S. criminal justice system - i.e., its jails and prisons - is Louis Theroux's absolutely spellbinding BBC documentary on the Miami, Florida County Jail. Here are parts two, three and four.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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June 7, 2011
The Cease-Fire that is long overdue
America's dubious policy of drug prohibition has been a frequent topic on this blog, so I was pleased to see this Mary Anastasia O'Grady/WSJ column (previous posts on O'Grady's work are here) yesterday on the Global Commission on Drug Policy's statement last week calling for a "paradigm shift in global drug policy."
O'Grady's column is particularly noteworthy because of her citing of this fine Angelo Codevilla's/Claremont Institute piece that explains how one of the unintended consequences of the failed War on Drugs is the increasing militarization of America's borders. As Codevilla notes:
A friendly border is like oxygen: when you've got it, you don't think about it. Only when you lose it does its importance seize you. But by then it is difficult to remember the fundamental truth: if borders are friendly, you don't have to secure them; and if they are unfriendly, you must pay dearly for every bit of partial security, because ever harsher measures produce ever greater hostility.
Thucydides' account of the Peloponnesian War gives us what may be history's most poignant description of how a hostile border proved disastrous to a great power. In the war's 19th year, Sparta put a small garrison in Decelea, in their enemy's backyard, which, Thucydides tells us, "was one of the principal causes of [the Athenians'] ruin." "[I]nstead of a city, [Athens] became a fortress," with "two wars at once," and in a few years was "worn out by having to keep guard on the fortifications." Having lost a friendly border, Athens turned itself inside out trying to secure an unfriendly one.
For an excellent overview of why America's drug prohibition policy should be scuttled, check out this Milton Friedman argument. And if you are interested in how a regulatory structure for recreational drug usage could be devised, the University of Chicago's James Leitzel's TEDxUChicago presentation below provides a great starting point:
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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June 6, 2011
Who should pay for obesity surgery?
So, the NY Times reports that a company that makes lap band devices used in bariatric lap band surgery has applied to the FDA to lower the obesity threshold at which surgery can be performed. If successful, the application would double the number of obese people who would qualify for bariatric lap band surgery.
Some of the obese people who would become eligible for the surgery have health complications that make it difficult for them to lose weight without the surgery. But most of the consumers covered by the new threshold could lose weight and not require the surgery by educating themselves and following healthy nutrition regimens. With third party insurers footing most of the cost of surgery at the point that obesity becomes life-threatening, why bother wasting time learning about -- and adjusting a lifestyle to follow -- proper nutrition?
Bariatric lap band surgery is expensive. Should consumers who make the effort to control their weight and follow healthy nutrition protocols contribute a part of their health insurance premiums to subsidize surgery for consumers who choose not to do so?
If consumers elect to take the risk of health problems from being obese, then shouldn't they bear the cost of damages resulting from that risk? And shouldn't insurers be free to elect not to cover consumers who engage in such risky behavior? Doesn't shifting the cost of that risk to insurers (who pass it along to the all insureds) simply encourage the obese consumers to consume more health care and avoid confronting their unhealthy lifestyle?
As the late Milton Friedman was fond of saying, consumers will consume as much health care as they can so long as someone else is paying for it.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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June 4, 2011
Defending John Edwards
Longtime readers of this blog know that I'm no fan of John Edwards. He represented much of what is bad about American political leadership.
However, it occurs to me that any federal indictment that is premised on the allegation that "[a] centerpiece of the Edwards' candidacy was his public image as a devoted family man" should not be a criminal matter.
The fact that Edwards is an easy target should make no difference. While it is clear that Bunny Mellon and Fred Baron financed the cover-up of Edwards' mistress and love child, it's far from clear - and simply not provable beyond a reasonable doubt - that this financing constituted illegal political contributions rather than simply payment of Edwards' personal expenses that would have been made regardless of whether he was a candidate.
The bottom line on all of this is that the financing of a cover-up to save Edwards' marriage and preserve his public image is not a crime.
If the Federal Election Commission wanted to make an issue out of this, then it should have brought a civil action against Edwards.
But this has no business being a criminal case.
Even for someone like John Edwards.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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May 20, 2011
Geithner as matinee idol
As regular readers know, I have long thought that Timothy Geithner is in over his head as Treasury Secretary.
So, it stands to reason that many people continue to listen carefully to what he says, this time at the opening of the new HBO film based on Andrew Ross Sorkin's book about the most recent financial crisis, Too Big to Fail.
"You can't prevent people from making mistakes," observed Geithner philosophically. "Taking too much risk and making stupid mistakes may not be a crime."
Yeah, right. Try to persuade Jeff Skilling of that.
The reality is that there isn't much difference between the way in which Geithner and Skilling reacted to their respective crisis. Yet one remains in one of the most powerful positions in government, while the other wastes away in a prison cell.
There is simply no rational basis for the disparate treatment of these two men.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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May 16, 2011
"In Prison Reform, Money Trumps Civil Rights"
That's the title of this important NY Times op-ed by Michelle Alexander, who who is the author of The New Jim Crow: Mass Incarceration in the Age of Colorblindness (New Press 2010). The entire op-ed is essential reading, but this excerpt focuses on one of the reasons why reforming the policy of overcriminalization has become politically difficult:
Those who believe that righteous indignation and protest politics were appropriate in the struggle to end Jim Crow, but that something less will do as we seek to dismantle mass incarceration, fail to appreciate the magnitude of the challenge. If our nation were to return to the rates of incarceration we had in the 1970s, we would have to release 4 out of 5 people behind bars. A million people employed by the criminal justice system could lose their jobs . Private prison companies would see their profits vanish. This system is now so deeply rooted in our social, political and economic structures that it is not going to fade away without a major shift in public consciousness.
Sentencing expert Doug Berman comments insightfully:
However, I strongly believe that liberty, not fairness, needs to be the guiding principle in this major shift. After all, one big aspect of the modern mass incarceration movement has been an affinity for structured guideline reforms and the elimination of parole all in order to have greater fairness and consistency at sentence.
What we have really achieved is less liberty as much, if not more, than less fairness.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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May 11, 2011
No more exaggerated fish stories?
So, you mean to tell me that now even exaggerated fishing stories are criminal?
That's what the Texas Tribune is reporting (H/T Scott Henson):
Fraudulent fishermen better reel it in. The Senate passed a bill today to make cheating in a fishing tournament up to a third-degree felony, sending the measure on to the governor.
HB 1806 expands existing law to all fishing tournaments, from fresh to salt water. It would make it an offense for contestants to give, take, offer or accept a fish not caught as part of the tournament. It would also be an offense to misrepresent a fish.
"I've never altered the length of a fish," says Sen. Glenn Hegar, R-Katy, the Senate sponsor of the bill. But he's been told fishermen will cut the tail off a fish so it will fit the minimum length requirement. That way, they can add more fish to their bucket.
For minor tournaments, cheaters could be charged with a Class A misdemeanor and face up to a year in jail or a maximum $4,000 fine. But if the prize is more than $10,000, contestants could be charged with a third-degree felony, spend two to 10 years in prison and pay up to a $10,000 fine.
As Henson observes, Senator Hegar and the Texas Legislature apparently have not noticed the onerous overcriminalization that they and other legislative bodies have been imposed on U.S. citizens:
Texas had 2,383 felonies when the session started. No telling yet how many new ones the Lege will pass this year, but Grits' pre-session prediction was 55. Nobody really tallies them all comprehensively until the parole board must assign new felonies risk categories later this year. But there are a bunch of them. You'd never know the Lege is broke because they seem to think more incarceration can solve any and every social problem: Even dishonest, exaggerating fishermen.
A truly civil society would find a better way.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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May 5, 2011
The train wreck of entitlements growth
Another lucid presentation from Jeff Miron, this time on the inevitable insolvency that will result from current levels of entitlement spending:
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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April 27, 2011
Bruce Schneier on security theater
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April 20, 2011
National Security Wisdom from the Joker
Cato's Julian Sanchez brilliantly sums up the logic behind the national security policy that leads our government to impose this kind of absurd abuse on its citizens:
Batman's archnemesis the Joker--played memorably by Heath Ledger in 2008′s blockbuster The Dark Knight--might seem like an improbable font of political wisdom, but it's lately occurred to me that one of his more memorable lines from the film is surprisingly relevant to our national security policy:
"You know what I've noticed? Nobody panics when things go 'according to plan.' Even if the plan is horrifying! If, tomorrow, I tell the press that, like, a gang banger will get shot, or a truckload of soldiers will be blown up, nobody panics, because it's all 'part of the plan.'"
There are, one hopes, limits. The latest in a string of videos from airport security to provoke online outrage shows a six-year-old girl being subjected to an invasive Transportation Security Administration pat down--including an agent feeling around in the waistband of the girl's pants. I'm somewhat reassured that people don't appear to be greatly mollified by TSA's response:
"A video taken of one of our officers patting down a six year-old has attracted quite a bit of attention. Some folks are asking if the proper procedures were followed. Yes. TSA has reviewed the incident and the security officer in the video followed the current standard operating procedures."
While I suppose it would be disturbing if individual agents were just improvising groping protocol on the fly (so to speak), the response suggests that TSA thinks our concerns should be assuaged once we've been reassured that everything is being done by the book--even if the book is horrifying. But in a sense, that's the underlying idea behind all security theater: Show people that there's a Plan, that procedures are in place, whether or not there's any good evidence that the Plan actually makes us safer.
And this is not all about civil liberties, either. As David Henderson points out, citizens who throw up their hands in disgust with the TSA's security theater and elect to drive rather than take a short-haul flight risk a fatality rate that is 80 times higher per mile than travelers on a commercial airliner face.
In short, the TSA is killing people.
As with the overcriminalization of American life, the TSA is an ominous reflection of a federal government and major political parties that are increasingly remote and unresponsive to citizens.
Is it too late to change? That would be a good question for someone to ask President Obama, who was famously elected on the slogan of "change we can believe in."
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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April 11, 2011
The joke that is the budget compromise
Don Boudreaux sums up perfectly why the budget compromise that was reached late last week is a joke:
Suppose that in a mere three years your family's spending - spending, mind you, not income - jumps from $80,000 to $101,600. You're now understandably worried about the debt you're piling up as a result of this 27 percent hike in spending.
So mom and dad, with much drama and angst and finger-pointing about each other's irresponsibility and insensitivity, stage marathon sessions of dinner-table talks to solve the problem. They finally agree to reduce the family's annual spending from $101,600 to $100,584.
For this 1 percent cut in their spending, mom and dad congratulate each other. And to emphasize that this spending cut shows that they are responsible stewards of the family's assets, they approvingly quote Sen. Harry Reid, who was party to similar negotiations that concluded last night on Capitol Hill - negotiations in which Congress agreed to cut 1 percent from a budget that rose 27 percent in just the past three years. Said Sen. Reid: "Both sides have had to make tough choices. But tough choices is what this job's all about."
What a joke.
Which reminds me of what H.L. Mencken observed about the primary talent of successful politicians:
"Their power to impress and enchant the intellectually underprivileged."
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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April 10, 2011
More Security Theater
Security theater endures to absurd levels. Is this dispositive proof that citizens no longer can limit abuses of power by the federal government?:
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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April 6, 2011
It’s not rocket science, part II
With high levels of municipal debt reverberating around the country, Alex Pollack provides this timely post on the what happened when New York City couldn't find any buyers for its municipal bonds back in 1975.
As Pollack explains, despite dire warnings of disaster from the financial pundits of the day, the Ford Administration declined to have the federal government bail-out New York City from its bond default. After NYC defaulted, disaster did not occur and the world financial system did not collapse.
Does that fear-mongering remind you of anything that occurred more recently?
Remember, this really is not rocket science.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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March 21, 2011
The Great Retirement Swap
The concept of retirement is undergoing fundamental change. Does anyone really believe anymore that it's possible for most folks to live comfortably over the final third of their lives while essentially generating no income?
That changing dynamic is behind such ventures as the Great Retirement Swap:
The way that we think about retirement in America is fundamentally flawed. The current retirement system assumes that people must diligently invest in the stock market over an extended period of 30 years or more in order to buy things in the future - like food, shelter, and clothing.
But what if people are free to share, barter and swap for these goods? To travel to wherever they want, provided someone has a spare room for them to use? To have access to any item they need, as long as they have an item of similar value to swap? [. . .]
Well, what if we fundamentally change the way we think about retirement to take into account the new trend toward collaborative consumption? Call it The Great Retirement Swap. At a macro-level, Americans would be swapping a bleak version of retirement for a positive, hopeful one.
At a more tactical level, older Americans would be swapping for goods and services, rather than owning them. Wealth in retirement would become a relative issue - are you wealthier if you own a second home in Florida, or if you have unfettered access to apartments across Europe, at any time of the year? [. . .]
While all this sounds a bit "un-capitalistic," it's actually the free market at work, on a grand scale. When you barter for goods, there is a market price established for those goods. And best of all, it doesn't require 7% annual compounded returns in the stock market to succeed.
With millions of Baby Boomers set to start retiring within the next few years, retirement nest eggs shattered by the financial crisis, and even eternal optimists convinced that Social Security is no longer sustainable in the long-run, it's time to start thinking of a ground-breaking, innovative - dare I say it - radical solution for helping Americans attain the type of retirement they always dreamed of in their golden years.
Regardless of the feasibility of the Great Retirement Swap, what are the chances that government will do a better job than markets in providing choices for retirees?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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March 20, 2011
Elie Wiesel on the perils of indifference
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March 17, 2011
On why we need to protect Bradley Manning and R. Allen Stanford
Glenn Greenwald has done an outstanding job of directing the blogosphere's attention toward the U.S. Army's inhumane pre-trial imprisonment of Private Bradley Manning, who is accused of providing classified information to WikiLeaks, which in turn published the info for the world to read.
The Manning affair has been bubbling just below the surface of public controversy for the past nine months. However, it started to become a full-blown public scandal last week when President Obama - who campaigned on the disingenuous slogan of "change we can believe in" - endorsed the military's brutal treatment of this innocent young man while giving a feckless answer to a question about Manning's treatment during a press conference.
Now, the Manning affair is turning into a firestorm. In addition to this scathing NY Times editorial, Greenwald's latest post links to the international attention that our government's abusive treatment of Manning is now getting. Constitutional Law scholar Jack Balkin and his colleagues over at Balkinization have prepared and are circulating this excellent statement to the Obama Administration condemning the "degrading and inhumane" conditions of Manning's "illegal and immoral" detention.
I applaud Greenwald for focusing attention on the gross injustice of the Manning case and for the others who are now objecting publicly to this outrageous misuse of governmental power. As with the government's vapid security theater and overcriminalization of American life, Manning's treatment is another powerful reminder of just how remote and unresponsive the government has become to civilized society.
Meanwhile, though, I'm wondering about something.
Why is Manning's treatment - as barbaric as it is - generating much more outcry than the arguably worse treatment that R. Allen Stanford has received during his pre-trial incarceration?
If we are going to forego protecting the innocent because the accusations against them are serious and seemingly compelling, then - as Thomas More reminds us -- "when the last law was down, and the Devil turned 'round on you, where would you hide, . . . the laws all being flat?"
"This country is planted thick with laws, from coast to coast, Man's laws, not God's! And if you cut them down, . . . do you really think you could stand upright in the winds that would blow then?"
"Yes, I'd give the Devil the benefit of the law."
"For my own safety's sake."
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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March 9, 2011
The Regulatory Mindset
Richard Epstein is typically lucid in taking on the increasingly foreboding regulatory culture that creates barriers for entrepreneurial creation of jobs and wealth:
What is to be done about the compliance culture--a culture born in response to excessive regulation--that now threatens to compromise the technological advances that have long spurred innovation in the United States?
This sad chronicle of relative decline takes place in three separate stages.
The first involves the new mindset that too often finds harmful externalities and bargaining breakdowns in virtually all human endeavors.
The second involves the bulky remedial structures that government puts in place to respond to these newly identified perils.
The third stage involves the subtle alterations in the selection of the compliance culture: the rise government officials and key private officers and executives whose skills matter ever more in these more severe regulatory environments.
This three-fold progression is not specific to this or that industry, but applies across the board. . . . [. . .]
No one should be so reckless as to claim that these forces operate in all cases in all ways. We still have our wonderful success stories. Yet by the same token, no one should be so naïve as to think that these forces have no role to play in the loss of innovation and competitiveness in this country, a loss felt in both absolute and comparative senses. This loss has become an ever-larger feature of the modern United States.
Stated another way, it's not that rules are unnecessary for markets to perform efficiently. But what type of rules are better?
Rules that politicians enact and governmental officials enforce generally are far less efficient than rules that emerge as a result of the voluntary interactions of millions of individuals and companies. The successes and mistakes of those individuals and companies pursuing their own interests create rules that are the product of competition and personal responsibility. When those rules become sufficiently important in the fabric of a market economy, they become formalized as common law and precedent by courts.
The distinction between inefficient government-imposed rules and the decentralized rules that facilitate productive market economies is an important one to understand as we wade through the carnage of this current era of increasing governmental regulation.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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March 8, 2011
What are we doing to ourselves?
Overcriminalization of life in America has been a frequent topic on this blog.
Mark Perry's post places the topic in perspective.
A truly civil society would find a better way.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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March 3, 2011
Jeff Miron on Libertarianism
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March 1, 2011
Is entitlement reform our generational challenge?
Henry Blodget passes along this revealing Mary Meeker graph on how bloated entitlement programs now comprise a staggering 58% of federal government expenditures and a corresponding portion of the $1.3 trillion federal deficit.
In his wonderfully lucid style, the Wall Street Journal's Holman Jenkins follows up with this column in which he explains how this system is intrinsically unsustainable, but also fixable:
Nobody should be surprised that public-sector workers in Wisconsin and elsewhere are fighting to preserve every penny of their promised benefits.[ . . .]
. . . this fight was penciled in long ago, when politicians and union leaders made the strategic decision to negotiate benefits without negotiating for the funding to make good on them. The mock shock and horror is all the more laughable given that events in Wisconsin are a perfect microcosm of the battle that every sentient American knows, and has known for a generation, awaits Medicare and Social Security.
Medicare is the real killer. According to Eugene Steuerle of the Urban Institute, an average couple retiring last year can look forward to consuming Medicare benefits with a present value of $343,000, having paid Medicare taxes with a present value of $109,000. [. . .]
The flip side of this depressing consideration, though, is a happier one. Moving toward a system of real savings, in which payroll taxes would flow into some version of personal accounts controlled by the worker, would bring a big improvement to incentives. We could expect a sizeable growth dividend to help finance the transition.
By "finance the transition," of course, we mean today's workers having to reach into their own pockets twice, paying for their own retirement while also making up for the saving their parents and grandparents didn't do. When people talk about generational injustice, this is what they mean. But the pain can be lightened and spread more evenly with borrowing. Here's where we should not be afraid of debt. The bond market can be trusted to distinguish between good debt and bad debt--between borrowing to fix the system and borrowing to prop it up.
The global bond market demonstrably still has confidence in America even today, in the absence of a clear path of reform. How much more willing would investors be to advance us money if it were being used to put the entitlement state on a sound, pro-growth footing? By the same token, if we don't at some point justify the market's current confidence in our future, our comeuppance will be swift and overwhelming.
This is the entire political challenge today, and you cannot shower enough contempt on those politicians who try to stonewall reform by exciting fears in the elderly that they will be left out in the cold. . . .
Recent past generations of Americans survived the challenges of the Great Depression and World War II to help provide a prosperous economy and great wealth for citizens.
Will the current generations of Americans accept the responsibility to take on the challenge of sustaining that prosperity?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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February 23, 2011
Wisconsin, Myth vs. Fact
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February 21, 2011
The amazingly ineffective 40-year war
The dubious policies of overcriminalization and drug prohibition are two frequent topics on this blog, so this excellent Ethan Nadelmann essay on the utter failure of America's 40-year War on Drugs caught my eye. The entire piece is worth reading, but his final point is particularly illuminating:
Legalization has to be on the table. Not because it is necessarily the best solution. Not because it is the obvious alternative to the evident failures of drug prohibition. But for three important reasons:
First, because it is the best way to reduce dramatically the crime, violence, corruption and other extraordinary costs and harmful consequences of prohibition;
Second, because there are as many options -- indeed more -- for legally regulating drugs as there are options for prohibiting them; and
Third, because putting legalization on the table involves asking fundamental questions about why drug prohibitions first emerged, and whether they were or are truly essential to protect human societies from their own vulnerabilities. Insisting that legalization be on the table -- in legislative hearings, public forums and internal government discussions -- is not the same as advocating that all drugs be treated the same as alcohol and tobacco. It is, rather, a demand that prohibitionist precepts and policies be treated not as gospel but as political choices that merit critical assessment, including objective comparison with non-prohibitionist approaches.
My question is whether the elaborate law enforcement infrastructure that has been constructed to deal with drug prohibition policy become such a powerful political force that it effectively prevents Congress from changing this disastrous policy for the better good of the majority?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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February 9, 2011
Narcotic maintenance vs. Addiction
This recent WaPo article highlights one of the senseless incongruities of the U.S.'s dubious policy of drug prohibition:
Twice, the patient, a man in his mid-30s, said he lost his prescriptions for Valium and Percocet. Once, he said he was in a car accident that scattered his pills on the road. Another time, he said the medicine he was first prescribed was no good, so he "returned the pills." Another time, his wife called and said their house had been "searched by authorities" and the medicine had gone missing.
Each time, no matter the story, Peter S. Trent or Hampton J. Jackson Jr., doctors at the same orthopedic practice in Oxon Hill, refilled the prescription, according to the Maryland Board of Physicians. Over the course of 21/2 years, the doctors gave the patient 275 prescriptions, mostly for Percocet, a powerful, highly addictive painkiller.
Sometimes they wrote the patient more than one prescription for the drug on the same day. In a single month, they wrote him 11 prescriptions for Percocet, totaling 734 pills.
On one hand, maybe the patients had a "legitimate" need for large amounts of narcotics, but most doctors wouldn't write prescriptions for the drugs because they fear prosecution if they did so.
On the other hand, the patients may be addicts without a "legitimate" need for the drugs, but they seek to obtain the narcotics through prescription because it is safer and probably cheaper than buying them illegally.
Current U.S. drug policy mandates that the patients who have a "legitimate" need for the narcotics can buy them legally, but the addicts cannot.
What valid public policy purpose is served by that distinction? Such a distinction only leads to arbitrary and capricious enforcement of criminal laws that terrorizes citizens who desperately need treatment regardless of the cause of that need.
Irrespective of whether a patient has a "legitimate" need for narcotics or is simply an addict, the patient should be able to obtain the drugs legally through prescription. Such a policy would allow the patient to obtain a known product at a reasonable price without risking expensive incarceration. A reduction of the mass incarceration problem and the expensive and brutal black market for drugs would be two fringe benefits of such a change in policy.
The federal government already funds methadone clinics for heroin addicts. Why not extend such a policy to narcotic maintenance?
A truly civil society would find a way.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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February 8, 2011
The Persistant Financial Losses of U.S. Airlines
Could this have anything to do with security theater? Check out the synopsis from Severin Borenstein's new working paper:
U.S. airlines have lost nearly $60 billion (2009 dollars) in domestic markets since deregulation, most of it in the last decade.
More than 30 years after domestic airline markets were deregulated, the dismal financial record is a puzzle that challenges the economics of deregulation. I examine some of the most common explanations among industry participants, analysts, and researchers -- including high taxes and fuel costs, weak demand, and competition from lower-cost airlines. Descriptive statistics suggest that high taxes have been at most a minor factor and fuel costs shocks played a role only in the last few years.
Major drivers seem to be the severe demand downturn after 9/11 -- demand remained much weaker in 2009 than it was in 2000 -- and the large cost differential between legacy airlines and the low-cost carriers, which has persisted even as their price differentials have greatly declined.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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February 3, 2011
A low-cost concierge medicine model
The innovation of concierge medical practice has been a frequent topic here, so this recent NY Times article on the development of a low-cost concierge medical practice model caught my eye:
With 31 physicians in San Francisco and New York, [One Medical Group] offers most of the same services provided by personalized "concierge" medical practices, but at a much lower price: $150 to $200 a year.
One Medical Group doctors see at most 16 patients a day; the nationwide average for primary-care physicians is 25. They welcome e-mail communication with patients, for no extra charge. Same-day appointments are routine. And unlike most concierge practices, One Medical accepts a variety of insurance plans, including Medicare. [. . .]
. . . One Medical is the first to try to carry out such a model on a large scale. It now has several thousand patients and a growth rate of 50 percent a year, fueled largely by word of mouth. Dr. Lee said he planned to open a third office in Manhattan next month and expand to a third large city next year.
It will be interesting to see if this model still works on a larger scale, particularly if less healthy patients use a highly disproportionate amount of doctor time and resources.
However, as this latest disclosure regarding Obamacare reinforces, truly beneficial health care finance reform is more likely to come through innovations such as One Medical Group, not through government-managed overhauls.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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January 23, 2011
Civility in politics is short-term
| The Daily Show With Jon Stewart | Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c | |||
| Word Warcraft | ||||
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Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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January 21, 2011
Experts at self-deception
Americans' proclivity to embrace myths is a frequent topic on this blog, so this Will Wilkinson post regarding Paul Krugman and this engaging William Easterly post on complexity and spontaneous order (among other things) is right up our alley. As Wilkinson notes:
It's clear by now that Paul Krugman thinks there is something seriously wrong with Republicans. . . .
Though it is a challenge to accept that a man of Mr Krugman's intelligence truly believes America's ills flow exclusively from the intellectual and moral failures of the people who disagree with him, I don't believe he is arguing in bad faith. He really is that self-righteously Manichean. What drives Mr Krugman absolutely nuts is that people who are wrong about everything are just as self-righteously Manichean as he is. Where do they get off? [. . .]
. . .there is something quite significant about the evidently negative rhetorical charge of "welfare" and "food stamps" among smaller-government, freer-markets types. And there is something quite significant about Mr Krugman's evident confusion about American public opinion and his genuine alarm over libertarian "taxation-is-theft" rhetoric.
Although Americans left and right have remarkably consistent "ideologically conservative but programmatically progressive" preferences when it comes to redistributive social policy, it benefits political parties and party politicians to greatly exaggerate their differences. Partisan brand identity and distinction is achieved largely through a commitment to a certain stock of rhetorical tropes and symbolic gestures that float almost entirely free of the party's substantive commitments. People are suckers for rhetoric, which is why merely rhetorical differentiation works at both the grocery store and the polling station. It is also why we are prone to believing crazy things about what the other "side" believes. And this leads to a rhetorical atmosphere corrosive to the trust necessary to facilitate compromises over policy that would be agreeable to most everyone.
Our problem, and Mr Krugman's, is that we believe our own BS.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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January 18, 2011
The problem that no big city mayor wants to confront
The turmoil in the municipal bond markets over the past week got me thinking.
Bill King has done a great job (and see generally here) of explaining how Houston's unfunded public pension obligation represents an untenable burden on the city government's financial condition. The problem is not just Houston's, either.
So, it was refreshing to come across this Maria D. Fitzpatrick/Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research paper (H/T Craig Newmark) that indicates that now may be the best time for Houston and other over-stretched local governments to attempt to do something about this mess:
The results show that the majority of Illinois public school teachers are willing to pay just 17 cents for a dollar increase in the present value of expected retirement benefits. The findings therefore suggest substantial inefficiency in compensation as the public cost of deferred compensation exceeds its value to employees. . . . [. . .]
In this context, the main finding of this paper, that the majority of IPS employees value their pension benefits at about 17 cents on the dollar, has two important implications. First, it suggests a possible Pareto-improving and politically feasible solution to the current inability of states to pay their promised pension benefits to public employees. Governments could offer to buy back pension benefits from teachers and other public sector employees. If the results here generalize, governments may be able to buy back promised employee pension benefits, or at least some of these promised benefits, for as little as twenty cents on the dollar. Doing so would draw down the pension obligations of governments both significantly and immediately, rather than waiting for a reduction in benefits to take effect years in the future.
Meanwhile, in this WSJ op-ed, Roger W. Ferguson, Jr. passes along an innovative approach that Orange County, California - the site of one of the largest municipal bankruptcies in U.S. history back in the mid-1990's - is taking to deal with its unfunded pension obligations:
The plan is a hybrid model: It combines contributions by the county and its employees with both a traditional defined-benefit pension and individual accounts, which the worker can take with him from job to job.
Here's how it works: New hires can choose either the old defined-benefit plan or the new hybrid plan when they sign up for benefits. The plan maintains a strong traditional pension, but it reduces the requisite contribution for both the county and its employees. It also redirects a portion of that money into the defined-contribution part of the plan where the money can grow over time.
Unlike a typical 401(k), the defined contribution part of the hybrid plan emphasizes retirement income as the primary goal. It incorporates affordable deferred annuity options during employees' working years that can deliver income in retirement that compares favorably with what workers can expect from the traditional pension plan alone. The hybrid plan also increases workers' take-home pay because workers' contributions are lower than they are in the old defined-benefit plan.
This new program helps workers to think about how much monthly income they will need in retirement--as opposed to how big a nest egg they're building. [. . .]
Sometimes real change begins with compromise. A new approach on pensions won't close the gap between current pension promises and the public's ability to afford them. But it points the way forward and acknowledges the reality that we have to start somewhere to address our nation's public pension woes.
Are you listening, Mayor Parker?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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January 17, 2011
I Have a Dream
No question about it, Martin Luther King could flat out give a speech.
And here is Robert F. Kennedy's moving tribute to Reverend King immediately after his death:
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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January 11, 2011
Mary Anastasia O'Grady on Free Trade and Drug Prohibition in Latin America
The Mary Anastasia O’Grady – longtime WSJ Americas columnist -- is one of the most insightful commentators on Latin American politics and economics. In this ReasonTV interview, O’Grady comments on the impact of free trade and drug prohibition on Latin America:
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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January 10, 2011
Our broken tax system
File this excellent Cato Institute video on our governments’ absurdly complicated tax system in the “why do we do this to ourselves†category of out-of-control governmental policies that include such intrusions as security theater and overcriminalization:
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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January 4, 2011
Old narratives die hard
A Russian criminal court sentenced former OAO Yukos chairman and CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky to another seven years in prison last week. As if on cue, the mainstream U.S. media reported on the event as a reflection of the capricious and arbitrary nature of the Russian legal system.
We really are better than those corrupt Russians, aren't we?
Meanwhile, the mainstream media continues to neglect -- and often promotes -- similar mistreatment and persecution of business executives in the U.S. I mean, really. Would R. Allen Stanford fare much worse in a Russian prison than he has in U.S. jails?
And to that the unnecessary and shameful criminalization of large segments of American society in other respects and you start wondering whether those writing for the mainstream media have any idea of what is going on in their own backyards?
Yeah, Russian criminal justice system is corrupt. The U.S. system is far superior.
Old narratives die hard.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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January 1, 2011
So Long 2010
The only thing better than this political ad from the 2010 campaign was the target study that concluded that it would be effective. You gotta love Arizona politics:
And amazingly, the foregoing political ad was pretty restrained in comparison to this classic plaintiff's lawyer's ad:
By the way, while growing up in Iowa City, I never realized that Cedar Rapids 20 miles to the north was such an interesting place:
Happy New Year!
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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December 27, 2010
Deepwater Horizon and the Gulf
Don't miss a couple of interesting articles from this past weekend regarding the Deepwater Horizon blowout in the Gulf of Mexico this past April.
First, this thorough NY Times article (and accompanying slideshow) focuses on the destruction of the Horizon rig, which was a distinct from the blowout itself:
It has been eight months since the Macondo well erupted below the Deepwater Horizon, creating one of the worst environmental catastrophes in United States history. With government inquiries under way and billions of dollars in environmental fines at stake, most of the attention has focused on what caused the blowout. Investigators have dissected BP's well design and Halliburton's cementing work, uncovering problem after problem.
But this was a disaster with two distinct parts - first a blowout, then the destruction of the Horizon. The second part, which killed 11 people and injured dozens, has escaped intense scrutiny, as if it were an inevitable casualty of the blowout.
It was not.
Nearly 400 feet long, the Horizon had formidable and redundant defenses against even the worst blowout. It was equipped to divert surging oil and gas safely away from the rig. It had devices to quickly seal off a well blowout or to break free from it. It had systems to prevent gas from exploding and sophisticated alarms that would quickly warn the crew at the slightest trace of gas. The crew itself routinely practiced responding to alarms, fires and blowouts, and it was blessed with experienced leaders who clearly cared about safety.
On paper, experts and investigators agree, the Deepwater Horizon should have weathered this blowout.
This is the story of how and why it didn't.
Meanwhile, this Robert Nelson/Weekly Standard article points out that it now is becoming apparent that the Gulf of Mexico suffered remarkably little damage from the oil spill that resulted from the blowout:
Oddly enough, however, the ecosystem of the Gulf itself turns out to have suffered remarkably little damage from the continuous gushing of oil into the water from April 20 till July 15, when the leaking well was capped. One group of scientists rated the health of the Gulf's ecology at 71 on a scale of 100 before the spill and 65 in October. By mid-August, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) was having trouble finding spilled oil. This squared with the finding of researchers from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California that the half-life of much of the leaking oil was about three days. At that rate, more than 90 percent would have disappeared in 12 days.
NOAA explained one reason for this in a report in August: "It is well known that bacteria that break down the dispersed and weathered surface oil are abundant in the Gulf of Mexico in large part because of the warm water, the favorable nutrient and oxygen levels, and the fact that oil regularly enters the Gulf of Mexico through natural seeps." In other words, the organisms that normally live off the Gulf's large natural seepage of oil into the water multiplied extremely rapidly and went on a feeding frenzy. Another 25 percent of the spilled oil-the lightest and most toxic part-simply evaporated at the surface or dissolved quickly.
Damage to wildlife, too, was relatively sparse. As of November 2, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service reported that 2,263 oil-soiled bird remains had been collected in the Gulf, far fewer than the 225,000 birds killed by the Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska in 1989. Despite fears for turtles, only 18 dead oil-soiled turtles had been found. No other reptile deaths were recorded.
While more than 1,000 sea otters alone had died in the Alaska spill, only 4 oil-soiled mammals (including dolphins) had been found dead in the Gulf region. These are very small numbers relative to the base populations. Similarly, government agencies were unable to find any evidence of dead fish. Fish can simply swim away from trouble. Nor was evidence found of contamination of live fish. In one government test, 2,768 chemical analyses uncovered no signs of contamination.
In the latest irony, marine biologists this fall have actually been seeing surprising increases in some fish populations. It seems that the closure of large areas of the Gulf to fishing amounted to an unplanned experiment in fisheries management. According to Sean Powers, a University of South Alabama marine biologist, "It's just been amazing how many more sharks we are seeing this year. I didn't believe it at first." He attributed the change to the "incredible reduction in fishing pressure," and added, "What's interesting to me [is that] we are seeing it across the whole range, from the shrimp and small croaker all the way up to the large sharks."
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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December 22, 2010
Thinking about income redistribution
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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December 21, 2010
Casino Jack Abramoff
Kevin Spacey is a national treasure.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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December 20, 2010
Johnny Carson on Politicians
The late Ross Lence, my mentor in undergraduate school, used to laugh when his students decried the lies of politicians. Lence contended that we expect - indeed, we want - our politicians to lie in order to make us feel better about the myths that we rely on about ourselves and our country in our day-to-day lives.
The late Johnny Carson provides a hilarious take on politicians' lies in this classic video from almost 30 years ago. Enjoy.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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December 16, 2010
The 40-Year War
Gary Becker makes a good point about a frequent topic on this blog - the enormous cost of the government's drug prohibition policy:
[The Miron and Waldock study does] a good job of estimating the amount directly spent by the United States in fighting the war on drugs. They calculate about $41 billion is spent on this fight by state and local governments, and by the federal government, through policing efforts, the cost of court personnel and buildings used to try and convict drug offenders, and the cost of the guards and other resources used to imprison those convicting of drug offenses. . . . These estimated direct costs of the war are significant, yet they are regrettably only a small fraction of the total social costs due to the war on drugs. [ . . .]
Perhaps, however, the worse results of the American war on drugs are found in its effects on other countries, especially Mexico, Colombia, and other Latin American countries. Mexico is also engaged in a war on drugs, but it is a war almost entirely fought against drugs shipped from Mexico into the United States. The overwhelming majority of drugs that are either produced in Mexico, or that enter Mexico from other countries, are destined for shipment across the border to the United States. The two main drugs shipped from Mexico are marijuana and cocaine, the same two drugs that Miron and Waldock show constitute the vast majority of drugs used by American consumers.
Mexico is engaged in a real war, with advanced military equipment used by the drug gangs; often the gangs have better weapons than the army does. The casualties have been huge: an estimated 30,000 + persons have been killed in recent years as a result of the drug violence, far greater than the combined deaths of American and allied forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. Many of these deaths are of drug cartel members, but a considerable number also are of soldiers and policemen, journalists, and innocent bystanders.
After the drug lords discovered that they are very good at violence and intimidation, they expanded geographically and into other activities. They have spread out from concentration in enclaves near the border or in the West of Mexico into many other areas, including major cities like Monterrey. Some towns have become uninhabitable, as former residents fled from the violence, some entering illegally into the US. Drug lords have taken control in many places of prostitution, gambling, extraction of monies from businesses for "protection" services, and indirectly also various local governments. [. . .]
No one has estimated the social cost of American drug policy on Mexico, Colombia, and other countries, but it has to be immense. Perhaps these countries should just allow drugs to be shipped to the US, and put the full burden of stopping these shipments on American enforcement agencies. The American government would protest, but such a result would provide a clearer picture to the American people of the full cost of current policy, including the major costs imposed on other countries. One can hope that then we will get a serious rethinking of the American war on drugs, and some real political movement toward decriminalization and legalization of various drugs.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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December 7, 2010
Richard Epstein on Obama
Reason's Nick Gillespie recently interviewed Richard A. Epstein (previous posts here), who explains how misdirected governmental programs under both Republican and Democratic administrations are having a devastating impact on economic growth and prosperity.
The entire interview is well worth watching. However, the initial portion of it (excerpted below) is particularly interesting because Epstein passes along his personal observations about Barack Obama gained from his experiences with Obama while both served on the University of Chicago Law School faculty.
While certainly not as bad as this, Epstein's portrayal of Obama is but not particularly reassuring, either.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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December 2, 2010
How WikiLeaks is like the office holiday party
Inasmuch as I believe the hoopla over the WikiLeaks disclosures is mostly overblown, I'm not going to post much on it. Except to point out again that the FT's Gideon Rachman really has the right perspective toward it all:
It's amusing for the rest of us to read US diplomats' frank and sometimes unflattering verdicts on foreign leaders, and it's obviously embarrassing for the Americans.
It's a bit like somebody getting drunk at a party and making bitchy comments in too loud a voice. Nobody is incredibly shocked that such things happen. But it's still awkward to be overheard by the person you are talking about.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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December 1, 2010
A lesson on using other people’s money
Well, maybe it's not all so bad after all that the Harris County Sports Authority used junk debt to finance construction of Reliant Stadium. Check out what's going on in St. Louis (H/T Craig Depken):
Eight years ago, as the St. Louis Cardinals aimed to build a new baseball stadium, team owners signed an agreement with the city worth millions of dollars a year in tax breaks.
In exchange, the team agreed to a series of annual perks for the region's residents - 100,000 free tickets, 486,000 seats for under $12 and $100,000 in donations to recreation for disadvantaged youths.
The Cardinals also agreed to give the city a cut of profits made if any portion of the team was sold.
Then, last year, owners sold a sizeable chunk of the Cardinals - more than 13 percent. Now, a group of anti-public-stadium advocates is alleging that the team owes the city hundreds of thousands of dollars.
And, despite another multimillion-dollar budget gap anticipated for the coming year, the city isn't checking into it. City officials acknowledge that they have never really kept tabs on the agreement.
. . . Several city officials, including Barb Geisman, the former deputy mayor for development, said there was no reason to double-check. They trust the Cardinals.
Which reminds me of what the late Milton Friedman used to say about the dynamics of using other people's money:
"There are four ways in which you can spend money."
"You can spend your own money on yourself. When you do that, why then you really watch out what you're doing, and you try to get the most for your money."
"Then you can spend your own money on somebody else. For example, I buy a birthday present for someone. Well, then I'm not so careful about the content of the present, but I'm very careful about the cost."
"Then, I can spend somebody else's money on myself. And if I spend somebody else's money on myself, then I'm sure going to have a good lunch!"
"Finally, I can spend somebody else's money on somebody else. And if I spend somebody else's money on somebody else, I'm not concerned about how much it is, and I'm not concerned about what I get."
"And that's government . . ."
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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November 30, 2010
Defending WikiLeaks
Although my view of the latest WikiLeaks disclosures is much the same as FT's Gideon Rachman (I mean, really, who would have thought that Silvio Berlusconi is feckless and vain?), my sense is that Will Wilkinson's initial analysis correctly identifies the importance of these disclosures:
To get at the value of WikiLeaks, I think it's important to distinguish between the government-the temporary, elected authors of national policy-and the state-the permanent bureaucratic and military apparatus superficially but not fully controlled by the reigning government. The careerists scattered about the world in America's intelligence agencies, military, and consular offices largely operate behind a veil of secrecy executing policy which is itself largely secret. American citizens mostly have no idea what they are doing, or whether what they are doing is working out well. The actually-existing structure and strategy of the American empire remains a near-total mystery to those who foot the bill and whose children fight its wars. And that is the way the elite of America's unelected permanent state, perhaps the most powerful class of people on Earth, like it. [. . .]
If secrecy is necessary for national security and effective diplomacy, it is also inevitable that the prerogative of secrecy will be used to hide the misdeeds of the permanent state and its privileged agents. I suspect that there is no scheme of government oversight that will not eventually come under the indirect control of the generals, spies, and foreign-service officers it is meant to oversee.
Organisations such as WikiLeaks, which are philosophically opposed to state secrecy and which operate as much as is possible outside the global nation-state system, may be the best we can hope for in the way of promoting the climate of transparency and accountability necessary for authentically liberal democracy. Some folks ask, "Who elected Julian Assange?" The answer is nobody did, which is, ironically, why WikiLeaks is able to improve the quality of our democracy.
Of course, those jealously protective of the privileges of unaccountable state power will tell us that people will die if we can read their email, but so what? Different people, maybe more people, will die if we can't.
Reminds me of the debate that occurred as a result of similar disclosures over a generation ago.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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November 29, 2010
The Real Threat of Security Theater
Writing in the NY Times over the holiday weekend, Roger Cohen lucidly identifies the true threat of the elaborate security theater that the Transportation Security Administration has foisted upon us in our nation's airports:
I don't doubt the patriotism of the Americans involved in keeping the country safe, nor do I discount the threat, but I am sure of this: The unfettered growth of the Department of Homeland Security and the T.S.A. represent a greater long-term threat to the prosperity, character and wellbeing of the United States than a few madmen in the valleys of Waziristan or the voids of Yemen.
America is a nation of openness, boldness and risk-taking. Close this nation, cow it, constrict it and you unravel its magic. [. . .]
. . . During the Bosnian war, besieged Sarajevans had a word - "inat" - for the contempt-cum-spite they showed barbarous gunners on the hills by dressing and carrying on as normal. Inat is what Americans should show the jihadist cave-dwellers.
So I give thanks this week for the Fourth Amendment: "The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized."
I give thanks for Benjamin Franklin's words after the 1787 Constitutional Convention describing the results of its deliberations: "A Republic, if you can keep it."
To keep it, push back against enhanced patting, Chertoff's naked-screening and the sinister drumbeat of fear.
Amen.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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November 17, 2010
Putting the Pencil to the Federal Budget
Several days ago, I posted on Twitter about the NY Times federal budget calculator, which is receiving well-deserved praise around the blogosphere.
For example, economists such as Clear Thinkers favorites David Henderson and Arnold Kling -- as well as financial columnist James Pethokoukis -- provide their views on what spending cuts to make in balancing the budget within a reasonable period of time without raising taxes.
As John Goodman points out, though, the elephant in the parlor in cutting the budget is how to corral Medicare costs without causing corresponding harm to the elderly. Details, details . . .
Nevertheless, Professor Henderson sums up the importance of the calculator as an educational tool:
Here's a prediction: if the New York Times keeps this game up on its site, a whole lot of people are going to be more sympathetic to cutting government and more optimistic that it can be done.
One of my objections to Tea Partiers is how uninformed some of them are about the numbers. Now, thanks to the New York Times, they don't have to be.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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November 16, 2010
Will Security Theater Endure?
Regular readers of this blog know that I've been critical of the Transportation Security Administration's absurdly inefficient and largely worthless airport screening procedures for five years now.
Although always hopeful, I never thought that it was realistic to dismantle the TSA entirely. Sadly, it's become yet another governmental jobs program with its own vested interests lobbying for its existence in perpetuity.
Nevertheless, I remained hopeful that something could eventually be done to constrain the TSA's seemingly unfettered capacity to make airline travel an mostly miserable experience.
So, the recent groundswell of opposition to the TSA's latest outrage in screening procedures - as summarized in this Art Carden/Forbes article (see also pilot Patrick Smith's Salon op-ed here)- has been an unexpected but welcome movement. I mean, really. How many more TSA outrages such as the that John Tyner chronicled will have to occur before politicians who oppose constructive change will be at risk of losing their jobs?
As airlines brace for the possible negative impact that the TSA agents' boorish actions may have on the upcoming holiday travel season, David Henderson notes one of the unanticipated consequences of the TSA's chilling effect on airline travel:
. . . let's remember the stakes. It's not just our privacy, our dignity, and our right not to be sexually assaulted. It's also about our lives. People who decide to drive rather than take a short-haul flight will face approximately 80 times the fatality rate per mile that people on commercial airlines face.
The TSA is killing people.
Moreover, beyond the infantile behavior of TSA agents, the wasted time and expense resulting from these procedures is appalling. Michael Chertoff, the former head of Homeland Security, promoted the supposed benefits of the new scanners when he was in office, and now he is a lobbyist persuading TSA to buy them!
As with the overcriminalization of American life, the TSA is another symbol of a federal government that is increasingly remote and unresponsive to its citizens.
Is this a trend that can be changed? Perhaps the curious case of the TSA will answer that question.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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November 4, 2010
The politics of increasing state power
Will Wilkinson touches on an interesting dynamic of current political discourse in the U.S.:
It sometimes does seem as though the American left has more or less ceded the language of liberty to the right. . . . Why is that?
I think "the left's confusion over how to respond ideologically" to the right's libertarian-sounding arguments flows in part from the left's own confusion about what it stands for. If the contemporary right is an uneasy fusion of conservative and libertarian articles of faith, the contemporary left is an uneasy fusion of technocratic progressive and liberal-democratic conviction.
One sees progressive managerial elitism most clearly in the left's public-health and environmental paternalism. The rarely uttered idea is that the people who know best need to force the rest of us to do what's good for us. Whatever you think of this sort of state paternalism, it isn't liberal or liberty-enhancing in any non-tortured sense. The progressive technocrat's attitude toward liberty is: "Trust us. You're better off without so much of it."
The more the left is inclined to stick up for this sort of "activist government" as a progressive, humanitarian force, the less it is inclined to couch its arguments in terms of liberty. And that's just honest. More honest, I would add, than social conservatives who in one breath praise liberty and in the next demand the state imposition of their favourite flavour of morality.
I agree with [Peter] Beinart that engaging the right's worries about liberty by couching the left's agenda in the language of liberty would improve the Democrats' prospects. But I don't think he should discount the extent to which a consistently liberal philosophy of government clashes with cherished and deep-seated parts of the American left's identity. (For example, the part that insists on defending Woodrow Wilson despite the profound depths of his illiberalism.)
Those Americans currently agitated about the threat Democrats pose to liberty are not wrong to be worried. Where they go wrong is in thinking Republicans are better on this score. Democrats might be able to argue this point effectively if only their own commitment to liberty was less conflicted.
The inclination of both major political parties to increase state power has ominous implications for citizens. Is it possible to change?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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October 30, 2010
Security theater run amok
Security theater -- that is, the largely worthless waste of time that the federal government imposes on us in the security lines at our nation's airports - has been a frequent topic on this blog. Arguably, no other current governmental action represents better just how out of control our government has become from the true desires of its citizens.
Given what appears initially to be some unsophisticated attempts at terrorist attacks on Thursday, we will likely in the coming days be regaled with the additional measures that the TSA will propose to impose on us as a result of this latest security threat.
Meanwhile, as this Jeffrey Goldberg/The Atlantic article notes, the federal government will continue to ignore the much more serious violations of civil liberties and basic human decency that already take place daily in our airports.
When will this madness end?
In this recent TEDxPSU talk, security expert Bruce Schneier provides an overview on how we should reconceptualize security so as to address the true security threats in an effective and reasonable manner. More constructive thought goes into this 18-minute lecture than what went into constructing the entire federal government elaborate security theater apparatus.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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October 21, 2010
Who is afraid of Anonymous Political Speech?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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October 19, 2010
Metro, Proposition 1 and competing costs
Given the regularity of gully-washers in Houston, flood control is something near and dear to the heart of any Houstonian.
So, the Renew Houston organization reasons, who could possibly be against Proposition 1 in the upcoming election? That's the referendum that seeks to raise about $8 billion of dedicated taxes over the next couple of decades to fund flood control projects and other infrastructure improvements.
Well, I doubt many Houstonians oppose improving flood control and other reasonable infrastructure improvements. But reasonable folks can certainly differ over how to pay for it. And more precisely, whether local governments have already committed limited tax dollars to boondoggles such as the Metro light rail system that should have been used for the more beneficial projects that Proposition 1 proposes.
Metro's defenders - many of whom are supporters of Proposition 1 - typically rely on the 2003 referendum as the primary basis for their continued support of the light rail boondoggle. But the problem with the 2003 referendum and Proposition 1 is that they ask voters to approve large public projects in a vacuum while ignoring Peter Gordon's three elegantly simple questions regarding economic choices: 1) At what cost? 2) Compared to what? and 3) How do you know?
For example, let's assume that voters in 2003 had been informed that the expenditure of a billion or so of public money on building a lightly-used light rail system has real consequences, such as leaving inadequate funds available to make the improvements to Houston's flood control system and infrastructure that Proposition 1 now proposes.
No one knows for sure, but my bet is that voting results would have been dramatically different if the foregoing alternative had been a part of the 2003 referendum.
Unfortunately, the relatively small groups that benefit from urban boondoggles have a vested interest in preventing the voters from ever examining those threshold issues. The primary economic benefit of such public projects is highly concentrated in only a few interest groups, such as representatives of minority communities who tout the political accomplishment of shiny toy rail lines while ignoring their constituents need for more effective mass transit; environmental groups striving for political influence; engineering and construction-related firms that profit from the huge expenditure of public funds; and real-estate developers who profit from the value enhancement provided to their property from the public expenditures.
As Professor Gordon wryly-noted "It adds up to a winning coalition."
Unfortunately, once such coalitions are successful in establishing a governmental policy subsidizing boondoggles such as the Metro light rail system, it is virtually impossible to end the public subsidy of the boondoggle and deploy the resources for more beneficial projects.
How do these interest groups get away with this? The costs of such boondoggles are widely dispersed among the local population of an area such as Houston, so the many who stand to lose will lose only a little while the few who stand to gain will gain a lot. As a result, these small interest groups recognize that it is usually not worth the relatively small cost per taxpayer for most citizens to spend any substantial amount of time or money lobbying or simply taking the time to vote against a boondoggle such as a light rail system.
But would the citizenry react differently if they knew that their lack of action in the face of an urban boondoggle might prevent the funding of much more beneficial projects?
Writing about Phoenix's new light rail system, which is just as uneconomic as Houston's, Warren Meyer analogizes the funding of these systems to dubious household purchases:
[The] Phoenix light rail reminds me of a home I visited recently that had a $50,000 super-size 100-inch flat screen TV. That TV was gorgeous. Everyone who saw it immediately fell in love with it. It worked flawlessly, and everyone at the party wanted one. In fact, it was probably the greatest, most sensible and successful purchase of all time . . . as long as one never considered the cost. This is exactly how light rail seems to get evaluated.
In building a light rail system, did Houston buy an expensive flat-screen TV with funds that would have been better utilized taking care of the drainage problem in the back yard? Or are things going so well at work for Houston that it can do both?
We will soon find out.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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October 13, 2010
The collateral consequences of overcriminalization
The troubling overcriminalization of American life has been a frequent topic on this blog, but this Jack Chin/Balkanization post explores an underappreciated cost of the overcriminalization policy - the collateral consequences of a criminal conviction:
Conviction and punishment, it is said, are the ways defendants "pay their debt to society." But it turns out that criminal conviction is a debt that can never be paid. In every state and under federal law, there are hundreds of collateral consequences that apply automatically or on a discretionary basis, to people convicted of crimes. Most of these apply for life, apply based on convictions from other jurisdictions, and can never be removed, or can be relieved only through virtually unavailable methods like a pardon from the President. The rise of computer databases means that factual disclosure of convictions is inescapable.
These collateral consequences, depending on the crime, include such things as deportation for non-citizens, ineligibility for public benefits, and government licenses, permits, and public employment, ineligibility for private employment requiring security clearances or contact with vulnerable populations like children and the elderly, loss of civil rights like voting, office-holding and jury service, and loss of parental rights or ability to adopt or be a foster parent.
These collateral consequences are particularly harsh on the young, many of whom believe that they will never be able to overcome the adverse impact of a youthful indiscretion.
In short, the collateral consequences of our federal, state and local governments' overcriminalization policy inhibits hope. How does that make sense?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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October 7, 2010
Good Police Work
H/T Radley Balko.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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September 28, 2010
“A powerful and alarming documentary about America’s failing public school system”
That's what this NY Times reviewer calls Waiting for Superman, the much-anticipated documentary on the failure of the U.S. public school system. Here are the John Heilemann/New York Magazine, the Lloyd Grove/Daily Beast and John Nolte/Big Hollywood reviews (h/t Craig Newmark).
Watch and think about this one, folks. It's for our children and grandchildren.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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September 27, 2010
With Judge Porteous’ Friends
Who needs enemies? That's what Nola.com's James Gill is asking after sitting through U.S. District Judge G. Thomas Porteous, Jr.'s impeachment trial last week (previous post here). Several of the judge's friends testified for the defense about how they would slip him some money on the side:
Several of those friends were in the habit of slipping Porteous money, and Turley decided to put one of them, Don Gardner, on the stand. That was asking for trouble too, and Gardner promptly provided it by admitting that a federal litigant, alarmed to discover that the other side had retained some friends of Porteous, paid him $100,000 as a counterbalance.
Gardner conceded that he was recruited for the case, although he lacked any relevant expertise, as "a pretty face, someone who knew the judge." He added that he could have pocketed an extra $100,000 by persuading Porteous to recuse himself, but made no attempt to do so, not wanting to be a "whore."
Senators probably did not agree that Gardner's virtue was intact.
Which reminded me of one of the following joke about a crooked judge:
Taking his seat in his chambers, the judge faced the opposing lawyers.
"So," said the judge. "Each of you has presented me with a bribe."
Both lawyers squirmed uncomfortably.
"You, attorney Mohanty, gave me $50,000," observed the judge. "And you, attorney Venkat, gave me $60,000."
The judge reached into his pocket, pulled out $10,000, and handed it to attorney Venkat.
"Now that I've returned $10,000 to attorney Venkat," exclaimed the judge proudly, "I'm going to decide this case solely on its merits!"
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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September 25, 2010
The Embarrassing Ex-President
Who had the worst week in Washington? According to WaPo, former President Jimmy Carter.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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September 23, 2010
Stifling Competition
Special business interests commonly use governmental power to stifle competition. Nevertheless, you really couldn't make this example up (H/T Jeff Miron):
The folks who deliver beer and other beverages to liquor stores have joined the fight against legalizing marijuana in California.
On Sept. 7, the California Beer & Beverage Distributors gave $10,000 to a committee opposing Proposition 19, the measure that would change state law to legalize pot and allow it to be taxed and regulated. [. . .]
"Unless the beer distributors in California have suddenly developed a philosophical opposition to the use of intoxicating substances, the motivation behind this contribution is clear," Steve Fox, director of government relations for the Marijuana Policy Project, said in statement.
"Plain and simple, the alcohol industry is trying to kill the competition. Their mission is to drive people to drink."
Amazingly, the alcoholic beverage distributors don't realize that one of the unintended consequences of the misguided drug prohibition policy is that illegal drugs are often much less expensive than legal alcoholic beverages.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 PM
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September 16, 2010
Liberty or Equality?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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September 15, 2010
The Myth of Superiority
Clear Thinkers favorite Peter Gordon is a very astute fellow:
David Brooks wrote about The Genteel Nation and "gentility shift" last Friday. He was addressing long-term labor market problems that have nothing to do with aggregate demand or any lack of "stimulus," but rather with the tastes of young people making career choices. He cited the example of Michelle Obama, telling an audience of young women, "Don't go into corporate America ... become teachers. Work for the community. Be social workers. Be a nurse ... Make that choice, as we did, to move out of the money-making industry into the helping industry."
It's an old theme and many people think of the choices before them as between being self-serving and "helping people". I am not sure what sacrifices the First Lady has had to make in her personal life in order to get on the high road, but given a platform, we hold forth -- and also tell ourselves all sorts of stories about ourselves. There is always the lovely conceit that some of us are all about "helping people" and, thereby, so much better than the rest.
Labor markets provide their own signals (in terms of compensation packages as well as employment and unemployment prospects), but the problem with rhetoric such as the First Lady's in the Brooks cite is that it nourishes the idea that we see repeated on so often that our own pay is "unfair" in light of the job's assumed social worth.
Many public sector unions have managed to extract promises from their politician employers that these employers cannot keep. There is naturally unhappiness and resentment, but not at the employers. Rather, at the "stingy" taxpayers who just don't get it: those who have chosen to "help people" simply "deserve" more.
Labor markets signal facts of life that challenge the "gentility" view of the world. But the gentility view fortifies the idea that market signals are "unfair" and further politicization is the way. This is the way we get street demonstrations such as the ones we saw in Paris last week. We'll always have the barricades.
This dynamic is the other side of the coin from what leads us to ostracize famous people such as Ken Lay, Tiger Woods and Roger Clemens. We try in any way to avoid confronting our innate vulnerability, so we use myths to distract us. We rationalize that a wealthy and powerful person did bad things that we would never do if placed in the same position even though we really have no idea how we would react to such incentives. As a result, we scorn and ridicule the rich and powerful as we attempt to purge collectively that which is too shameful for us to confront individually.
Be wary of those who justify their world view on the supposed moral superiority of their cause versus how markets would reward that effort. As Gordon notes, this view assumes that market signals are unfair and that political corrections are the answer. The mob is never wrong in the moment of its action.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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September 14, 2010
What disaster is worse?
On one hand, the vested interests in America's unending War on Drugs continue to rationalize the enormous cost of drug prohibition by suggesting that the alternative is worse:
Every past administrator of the 37-year-old Drug Enforcement Administration is calling on the Justice Department to sue California if its voters decide to legalize marijuana in November.
Peter Bensinger, who ran the D.E.A. from January 1976 to July 1981, said legalizing the recreational use of pot, even in one state, would be a "disaster," leading to increased addiction, traffic accidents and trouble in the workplace.
Meanwhile, the WSJ's Mary Anastasia O'Grady writes about the wages of the War on Drugs just across the Texas border near El Paso:
Juárez is dying. Since the beginning of this year, more than 2,200 people in the city have been murdered. Since 2008, the toll is almost 6,500. On a per capita basis this would be equivalent to some 26,000 murders in New York City. Drug warriors play down these numbers by claiming that some 85% of the dead were themselves involved in trafficking. But that claim is dubious since in many of the murders-more than 90% of cases this year-there hasn't even been an arrest. And what about the hundreds of innocents, the other 15% of the victims, that the government admits were not criminals? [. . .]
In the 40 years since Richard Nixon declared war on drug suppliers abroad-because American consumers had consistently demonstrated that they had no interest in curtailing demand-illicit drug use in rich countries has remained fairly constant. Only preferences have shifted.
A report released in June by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime found that "drug use has stabilized in the developed world." Cocaine use in the U.S. has dropped in recent decades, but there is "growing abuse of amphetamine-type stimulants and prescription drugs around the world." The report also said that "cannabis is still the world's drug of choice." In other words, billions of dollars in warring has left us about where we started, except, according to the report, that the indoor cultivation of cannabis is now a major source of funding for criminal gangs.
As I've noted many times, America's War on Drugs is lost and it is long past time that we require our leaders to acknowledge that and end it.
Even if legalization would increase drug abuse and addition (not clear, but certainly possible), at least such a policy would allow the abusers to harm themselves rather than impose substantial risk of harm on innocent citizens.
The War on Drugs is dangerously close to becoming a war on us.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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September 9, 2010
You’ve got to be kidding me
No, really. Get a load of this:
The unexpectedly deep plunge in home sales this summer is likely to force the Obama administration to choose between future homeowners and current ones, a predicament officials had been eager to avoid.
Over the last 18 months, the administration has rolled out just about every program it could think of to prop up the ailing housing market, using tax credits, mortgage modification programs, low interest rates, government-backed loans and other assistance intended to keep values up and delinquent borrowers out of foreclosure. The goal was to stabilize the market until a resurgent economy created new households that demanded places to live.
As the economy again sputters and potential buyers flee - July housing sales sank 26 percent from July 2009 - there is a growing sense of exhaustion with government intervention. Some economists and analysts are now urging a dose of shock therapy that would greatly shift the benefits to future homeowners: Let the housing market crash.
When prices are lower, these experts argue, buyers will pour in, creating the elusive stability the government has spent billions upon billions trying to achieve.
As regular readers of this blog know, the notion that housing markets need to allocate risk of loss before those markets can stabilize and recover is not rocket science.
In fact, the government's dithering over the past two years in propping up these inflated housing markets has actually made the situation worse because it has postponed the transfer of misallocated resources in the housing markets to other markets.
Another day, another failed bailout. So it goes.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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September 8, 2010
Retiring thoughts
Clear Thinkers favorite Arnold Kling has had some insightful thoughts lately (see also here) about the economics of retirement lately:
[Megan McArdle's] main point is that if you live about 90 years and spend the last 30 of them not working, it is hard to maintain your standard of living no matter who pays for it. There is a lot of optimism about stock market returns built into state pension funds, individual retirement plans, and--I would say--even Social Security and Medicare. My argument is that without strong stock market returns, general tax revenues are not going to be robust, and Social Security and Medicare will go broke really soon without robust general tax revenues. [. . .]
For any given level of output, more consumption by one group (say, people over 65) is going to reduce what can be consumed by everyone else. As the ratio of people over 65 to everyone else goes up, this increases the ratio of state-confiscated income to total income required to keep Social Security and Medicare going. [To some] this higher confiscation rate represents a kinder and gentler society. But it may not feel kind and gentle to those who earn incomes and have them confiscated.
Kling's thoughts resonate when reading this WSJ article on teacher's pensions:
When it comes to shaking up the status quo, however, the most potent education reform may be the one that's too often considered a side issue: pension reform.
That's right, pension reform. Over the past 25 years, the private sector has moved from having four of five workers in a defined-benefit pension to having just one of five workers in such a plan. Mostly this means a shift to 401(k)s and the like, where payouts are related to what employees pay in.
Like most government employees, teachers have not made this shift. Their unions fight bitterly to retain the defined benefit plans underwritten by taxpayers. While these plans allow some lucky folks to retire in their 50s with a generous payout, they also feature perverse incentives that punish the young (more on this below) and encourage people to hang on for dear life even when they'd much rather leave. [. . .]
"A retired teacher paid $62,000 towards her pension and nothing, yes nothing, for full family medical, dental and vision coverage over her entire career," said [Governor Chris Christie]. "What will we pay her? $1.4 million in pension benefits and another $215,000 in health-care benefit premiums over her lifetime. Is it 'fair' for all of us and our children to have to pay for this excess?"
The article goes on to point out that the unintended consequence of these subsidized pensions is that - similar to the dynamic of employer-based health care policies - employees lose the incentive to pursue different and potentially more fulfilling careers because of fear that they will lose their non-portable benefits if they change jobs.
Does it really make sense to reward employees who simply wait out the system for the pot at the end of the rainbow that the rest of us cannot afford to provide?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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August 23, 2010
Again, why is Timothy Geithner still Treasury Secretary?
Regular readers know that I'm not a big fan of Treasury Secretary Geithner.
But after poorly-conceived governmental programs subsidizing mortgage loans played a not insubstantial part in the worst financial crisis in a generation, this NY Times article left me speechless for a few days:
Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, speaking Tuesday at a conference to discuss the possibilities [of reforming the government's role in housing finance], made clear that the administration was not pondering such radical kinds of surgery as it develops a proposal it hopes to unveil in January.
Rather, Mr. Geithner and the conference after his remarks focused largely on drafting a new and improved version of the current system, in which the government subsidizes mortgage loans made by private companies.
Mr. Geithner said continued government support was important to make sure that Americans can borrow at reasonable interest rates to buy a house even in a downturn. The absence of such support, Mr. Geithner said, would deepen future recessions because unsubsidized private companies would curtail lending.
I mean really. After what we've been through, why on earth should the government be involved in mortgage markets in any respect?
Government intervention in mortgage markets is simply a thinly-disguised redistribution of income. But even if you think government should be doing such things, creating moral hazard in mortgage markets is a very costly way to accomplish that goal.
Stated simply, the social benefits of home ownership result from homeowners building equity in their homes through saving and enhancing neighborhoods. Those social benefits are not generated from homeowners who borrow excessively to speculate on housing in which they have no equity.
As with proponents of publicly-financed sports stadiums, proponents of such redistribution policies should simply make their case that redistribution is sound public policy and not disguise it in expensive mortgage subsidies. They don't because of fear that voters would reject such a redistribution policy if they came to understand the true cost of these subsidies. Truth in advertising in politics is rare, indeed.
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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August 14, 2010
The irrelevance of drug prohibition
Check out this interesting letter to the editor of the Wall Street Journal yesterday from Robert Sharpe of Common Sense for Drug Policy:
What's interesting about the drop in violence associated with crack cocaine is the irrelevance of drug enforcement. During the peak of the 1980s crack epidemic, New York City applied the zero-tolerance approach. Meanwhile, Washington, D.C. Mayor Marion Barry was actively smoking crack and the nation's capital had the highest per capita murder rate in the country.
Despite very different leadership and law enforcement, crack use declined in both cities simultaneously. This parallel decline occurred when the younger generation saw firsthand what crack was doing to their older peers and decided for themselves that crack was bad news. Adding to what is already the highest incarceration rate in the world is not the answer to America's drug problem. Diverting resources away from prisons into cost-effective, substance-abuse treatment would save both tax dollars and lives.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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August 11, 2010
Too many laws, too many prisoners
The troubling overcriminalization of American life has been a frequent topic on this blog, so this excellent Economist article on the subject caught my eye.
After beginning with the example of the absurdly over-the-top local federal criminal case against local orchid importer George Norris, the article hammers home the stark statistics:
Justice is harsher in America than in any other rich country. Between 2.3m and 2.4m Americans are behind bars, roughly one in every 100 adults. If those on parole or probation are included, one adult in 31 is under correctional supervision. As a proportion of its total population, America incarcerates five times more people than Britain, nine times more than Germany and 12 times more than Japan. Overcrowding is the norm. Federal prisons house 60% more inmates than they were designed for. State lock-ups are only slightly less stuffed.
The system has three big flaws, say criminologists. First, it puts too many people away for too long. Second, it criminalises acts that need not be criminalised. Third, it is unpredictable. Many laws, especially federal ones, are so vaguely written that people cannot easily tell whether they have broken them.
In 1970 the proportion of Americans behind bars was below one in 400, compared with today's one in 100. Since then, the voters, alarmed at a surge in violent crime, have demanded fiercer sentences. Politicians have obliged. New laws have removed from judges much of their discretion to set a sentence that takes full account of the circumstances of the offence. Since no politician wants to be tarred as soft on crime, such laws, mandating minimum sentences, are seldom softened. On the contrary, they tend to get harder.
Of course, America's dubious drug prohibition policy fuels a substantial part of the prison industrial complex. Check out how supposedly enlightened Massachusetts handles certain drugs:
Massachusetts is a liberal state, but its drug laws are anything but. It treats opium-derived painkillers such as Percocet like hard drugs, if illicitly sold. Possession of a tiny amount (14-28 grams, or ½-1 ounce) yields a minimum sentence of three years. For 200 grams, it is 15 years, more than the minimum for armed rape. And the weight of the other substances with which a dealer mixes his drugs is included in the total, so 10 grams of opiates mixed with 190 grams of flour gets you 15 years.
And don't think for a moment that the ubiquitous law of unexpected consequences isn't at play with regard to this mess:
Severe drug laws have unintended consequences. Less than half of American cancer patients receive adequate painkillers, according to the American Pain Foundation, another pressure-group. One reason is that doctors are terrified of being accused of drug-trafficking if they over-prescribe. In 2004 William Hurwitz, a doctor specialising in the control of pain, was sentenced to 25 years in prison for prescribing pills that a few patients then resold on the black market. Virginia's board of medicine ruled that he had acted in good faith, but he still served nearly four years.
Here are previous posts dealing with the sad case of Dr. Hurwitz. And it gets worse:
There are over 4,000 federal crimes, and many times that number of regulations that carry criminal penalties. When analysts at the Congressional Research Service tried to count the number of separate offences on the books, they were forced to give up, exhausted. Rules concerning corporate governance or the environment are often impossible to understand, yet breaking them can land you in prison. In many criminal cases, the common-law requirement that a defendant must have a mens rea (ie, he must or should know that he is doing wrong) has been weakened or erased. [. . .]
"You're (probably) a federal criminal," declares Alex Kozinski, an appeals-court judge, in a provocative essay of that title. Making a false statement to a federal official is an offence. So is lying to someone who then repeats your lie to a federal official. Failing to prevent your employees from breaking regulations you have never heard of can be a crime. A boss got six months in prison because one of his workers accidentally broke a pipe, causing oil to spill into a river. "It didn't matter that he had no reason to learn about the [Clean Water Act's] labyrinth of regulations, since he was merely a railroad-construction supervisor," laments Judge Kozinski.
One of the most encouraging moments in the most recent presidential campaign was then-candidate Obama's willingness to address the overcriminalization problem by considering reform of America's abhorrent drug prohibition policy.
One of the most disappointing aspects of Obama's Presidency is his abandonment of that issue.
So it goes.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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July 25, 2010
Why is Timothy Geithner still Treasury Secretary?
I’ve been asking that question for almost a year now (see also here).
Craig Pirrong is asking the same question after Geithner’s comments about American business to a group of reporters at breakfast this past week.
Meanwhile, Larry Ribstein reviews the politics of supposedly “objective” governmental regulation.
Frankly, given abysmal leadership provided by both the Bush and Obama Administrations, it’s a testament to the resilience of American business that the economy hasn’t tanked worse than it has.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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July 21, 2010
Five myths about the death penalty
David Garland of New York University has a new book coming out later this year on a common topic on this blog, Peculiar Institution: America's Death Penalty in an Age of Abolition (Belknap 2010). He previews the book in this WaPo op-ed in which he addresses the following five myths of the death penalty:
1. The United States is a death-penalty nation.
2. The United States is out of step with Europe and the rest of the Western world.
3. This country has the death penalty because the public supports it.
4. The death penalty works.
5. The death penalty doesn't work.
Check out the entire article.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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July 20, 2010
And you thought the TSA was bad?
The silliness of the federal government’s security theater policy has long been a common topic on this blog. But if you thought that the government’s security theater jobs program is bad, check out this first installment of the Dana Priest-William Arkin/Washington Post series on the explosion in the hiring of government contractors and employees doing top-secret work for the government’s intelligence agencies and programs:
After nine years of unprecedented spending and growth, the result is that the system put in place to keep the United States safe is so massive that its effectiveness is impossible to determine. . . . Analysts who make sense of documents and conversations obtained by foreign and domestic spying share their judgment by publishing 50,000 intelligence reports each year – a volume so large that many are routinely ignored. . . . Every day, collection systems at the National Security Agency intercept and store 1.7 billion e-mails, phone calls and other types of communications. The NSA sorts a fraction of those into 70 separate databases. The same problem bedevils every other intelligence agency, none of which have enough analysts and translators for all this work.
The first Post installment goes to detail the utter failure of the matrix of government intelligence resources to generate the quantity or quality of intelligence that would justify the billions of dollars being spent on them, while telling the all-too-familiar tale of Congress failing to require any meaningful accountability from the intelligence agencies.
All of which prompts one to wonder. We already know what happens when Wall Street crashes.
But with the explosive growth in the intelligence and security theater bureaucracies, as well as the growth in government that is just beginning in regard to Obamacare and the 2,000-plus page Dodd-Frank financial regulation reform legislation -- and not to overlook the bloated bureaucracy that already exists to enforce the federal government’s absurdly-complex tax laws – what happens when out-of-control government growth crashes?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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July 12, 2010
The largest psychiatric hospital - America's prisons
An insightful Fault Lines segment examines how prison systems have become America's largest psychiatric hospitals, with a substantial focus on the Harris County and Texas prison systems.
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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July 11, 2010
The Most Dangerous Man in America
From First Run Features (H/T Rhetorics and Heretics).
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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July 9, 2010
The Politics of Ignorance
If you tire of the seemingly endless demagogic blather that governmental officials and pundits often pass off as discussion of key societal issues, then be sure to read this insightful Will Wilkinson post on the politics of ignorance:
The problem [of ideologues elevating doctrine over wisdom] is heightened by the fact that the reading public generally enjoys ideologues more than three-handed scholars, and so the more ideological among ideologues find themselves with larger audiences and more numerous and remunerative opportunities to publicly opine.
What results is not so much an exercise in public reason as a smash-em-up reputation derby, where elites vie to increase their pull with the public and policymakers by disparaging ideological competitors. Moves in the reputation game take many forms, from sniffs of imperious condescension, to bald “stupidest man alive” name-calling, to self-congratulatory above-the-fray comments like this one. There is no reason to trust that this is a process through which truth unfolds.
In the absence of institutions that limit the scope of democratic authority over intractably complex policy questions, the best we can hope for is perhaps a tad more self-awareness among opinion elites about their tendencies toward dogmatism and for the rise of norms that do more to reward the honestly judicious and penalize highly-regarded doctrinaire assholes.
As noted earlier here and here, the instinct of most politicians and much of the mainstream media is to embrace simple “villain and victim” morality plays when attempting to explain a particular trouble.
Take, for example, investment loss. The more nuanced story about the financial decisions that underlie a failed investment strategy doesn't garner sufficient votes or sell enough newspapers to generate much interest from the demagogues or muckrakers. That's why we periodically endure witch hunts, such as the recent one demonizing speculators. That’s also why it's important that our leaders who are ignorant about the function of speculation in markets take a moment to understand its beneficial purpose.
Morality plays are comforting because they make it easy to identify and demonize the villains who are supposedly responsible for trouble. The truth is usually far more nuanced and complicated, but ultimately more rewarding to embrace.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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July 2, 2010
Rational Optimism
Matt Ridley supplies a dose of good end-of-the-week vibes with this article based on his new book, The Rational Optimist (Harper 2010):
When I set out to write a book about the material progress of the human race, now published at The Rational Optimist, I was only dimly aware of how much better my life is now than it would have been if I had been born 50 years before. I knew that I have novel technologies at my disposal from synthetic fleeces and discount airlines to Facebook and satellite navigation. I knew that I could rely on advances in vaccines, transplants and sleeping pills. I knew that I could experience cleaner air and cleaner water at least in my own country. I knew that for Chinese and Japanese people life had grown much more wealthy. But I did not know the numbers.
Do you know the numbers? In 2005, compared with 1955, the average human being on Planet Earth earned nearly three times as much money (corrected for inflation), ate one-third more calories of food, buried one-third as many of her children and could expect to live one-third longer. All this during a half-century when the world population has more than doubled, so that far from being rationed by population pressure, the goods and services available to the people of the world have expanded. It is, by any standard, an astonishing human achievement.
We invent new technologies that decrease the amount of time that it takes to supply each other’s needs. The great theme of human history is that we increasingly work for each other. We exchange our own specialised and highly efficient fragments of production for everybody else’s. The ‘division of labour’ Adam Smith called it, and it is still spreading. When a self-sufficient peasant moves to town and gets a job, supplying his own needs by buying them from others with the wages from his job, he can raise his standard of living and those he supplies with what he produces. [. . .]
So ask yourself this: with so much improvement behind us, why are we to expect only deterioration before us? I am quoting from an essay by Thomas Macaulay written in 1830, when pessimists were already promising doom:
“They were wrong then, and I think they are wrong now.”
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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June 21, 2010
Visiting a prison cell
The troubling U.S. incarceration rate and the dubious governmental policy of overcriminalization have been frequent topics on this blog. The toll of the overcriminalization policy on citizens and their families is incalculable.
Part of the problem in modifying this destructive policy is that the constituency of current and former prisoners and their families is not powerful politically. But another aspect of the problem is that most well-meaning citizens who could make a difference on this issue politically have never experienced the hell that is most prisons in the United States. It’s human nature to avoid addressing even an important issue that one has never had to confront personally.
That’s why this A Public Defender post is important – it provides penetrating insight into the destructive nature of our government’s overcriminalization policy:
I sat in a prison cell yesterday. . . .
There was a bed – a small bed – that was the length of the room. At the foot of the bed a metal toilet, with no cover. Just beyond that the heavy metal door, with a slit for a window. The door was maybe 3 feet wide, if that. At the head of the bed, if you were laying on your right side, you’d be about half a foot away from an ugly metal desk with holes that pretended to be drawers. This could not have been more than a foot long. The bed was flush with one wall. The desk with the opposite.
The bed looked hard, cold and dirty. And that’s it. This particular cell happened to have a window at the head of the bed. A window looking out onto nothing. Any future inhabitant of this particular cell would have it good. It was a single. Across the narrow passageway from this cell was another, identical in every respect except two: it was a double cell and there was no window. (Here’s a post I wrote a while ago about a different take on prisons in a foreign country.) [. . .]
I willed myself to stand there, though, for a minute. To look around at the bare walls, the bare desk, the dirty toilet and imagine someone “living” there.
I even briefly closed my eyes and tried to picture myself there, day in and day out, for months, which turned into years, which turned into decades.
Would I survive? How does anyone? Would I give up and stop bathing, shaving, eating? Would I maintain my sanity or would I quickly decompensate? How long would it be before I’d want to kill myself? [. . .]
People in cells are lucky, though. The next portion of the tour took me to the dorm-style housing. Which is nothing like any dorm you’ve ever lived in. Imagine instead the makeshift MASH hospitals, or perhaps the busiest train station in your neighborhood at rush hour, except instead of standing, people are milling about a hundred bunk beds on that tiny platform.
There is no privacy, there is no solitude, there is no being left alone. You are part of a large crowd. You are in someone’s face and they are in yours. You are a collective. Day in and day out. You share your bedroom with 125 other people.
Leaving the prison, I asked my colleague: cell or dorm? There’s no debate. Cell. I’d rather lose my sanity by myself.
A truly civilized society would find a better way.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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June 18, 2010
What could possibly go wrong?
Earlier in the week, Steve Malanga wrote about the municipal debt racquet in this WSJ op-ed. Not surprisingly, a good part of the article examined dubious decisions that local governments have made in financing sports palaces:
State and local borrowing as a percentage of the country’s GDP has risen to an all-time high of 22% in 2010 from 15%, with projections that it will reach 24% by 2012.
Even more disconcerting is what the borrowing now often finances. One favorite scheme for muni debt is giant and risky development projects.
California’s redevelopment regime is an object lesson. Starting in the 1950s, the state gave localities the right to create public agencies, funded by increases in property taxes, which can issue debt to finance redevelopment. A whopping 380 such entities now exist. They collect 10% of all property taxes—nearly $6 billion annually—and they have amassed $29 billion in debt never approved by voters for projects ranging from sports facilities to concert venues to retail malls, museums and convention centers.
Critics, including taxpayer groups, say most such agency projects add little economic value. Sometimes the outcome is much worse.
In 1999, Fresno conceived plans to revive its downtown area with various projects, including a baseball stadium for the minor-league Grizzlies, which it had lured from Phoenix. The city’s redevelopment agency floated some $46 million in bonds to build the stadium. But the Grizzlies fizzled in their new home, demanded a break on rent, threatening to skip town and stick taxpayers with the entire $3.4 million annual bond payment on the facility. The team is now receiving $700,000 in annual subsidies to stay in the city.
Adding to the city’s woes: Last June, another development project, the Fresno Metropolitan Museum, went bust, leaving the city’s taxpayers on the hook for three-quarters of a million dollars in annual debt payments.
Cities now also use taxpayer-financed debt to engage in fierce bidding wars that benefit private enterprises. Charlotte, N.C., for instance, won the bidding for the new Nascar all of Fame with a $154 million offer, funded by a new hotel tax dedicated to servicing bonds for constructing the hall. But the venue employs only about 115 people—and an economic development study estimated the increased annual tourism from the venture won’t even equal what a single Nascar race generates.
Why did politicians offer the deal? For the dubious and hard-to-quantify purpose of “branding” the city with a major attraction, according to the Charlotte Observer.
Yeah, we in Houston know all about financing those minor league stadiums. Anyone taking into consideration what we are going to do with that thing if the Dynamo and/or the MLS doesn’t make it?
If that weren’t bad enough, the WSJ’s Chris Rhoads chimed in yesterday with this article on the wasting, publicly-financed “assets” that Greece built for the 2004 Olympic Games:
Georges Kalaras used to view with pride the sports hall built near his home here for the 2004 Olympic competition in rhythmic gymnastics and ping pong. Now, he gets mad every time he jogs by.
"Look, it's locked!" shouted the 38-year-old Mr. Kalaras, who works for the Athens city water company. Two stray dogs tangling with each other behind a padlocked metal fence accounted for the only activity in the complex, which seats 5,200 people.
Mr. Kalaras figured the steel and glass hall, costing taxpayers $62 million, would provide recreational space in his neighborhood. Officials envisioned concerts or shops.
Instead, when the Olympic torch went out after the Athens Summer Games six years ago, the doors closed here, as well as at many of the 30-odd other sites built or renovated for the Olympics that summer.
The vacant venues, several of which dominate parts of the city's renovated Aegean coastline, have become some of the most visible reminders of Greece's age of excessive spending. Sites range from a softball stadium and kayaking facility to a beach volleyball stadium and a sailing marina. [. . .]
Even boosters of the Olympics are having second thoughts.
George Tziralis, a technology investor, in 2007 co-authored a glowing report declaring the venues as "greatly improving the quality of life of the inhabitants of these areas, providing valuable resources to the community and the economy."
On a recent afternoon, staring at a pile of bricks on the unfinished entrance behind a locked metal fence encircling the Olympic sailing marina, he was less upbeat.
"I hope you're calling this article 'The Nonsense of the Olympics,'" he said. Boats filled about a third of the 120 slips at the marina, which remains closed to people who aren't boat owners.
Later, Mr. Tziralis, 28, gestured out the window of his Opel Corsa at a huge, locked complex of mostly vacant Olympic properties, located on the former site of the city's old airport.
"There's no way there shouldn't be a park here six years after the Games!" he shouted.
That complex, which cost taxpayers $213 million, includes stadiums for field hockey, softball and baseball—sports with little or no following in Greece. The facility for canoeing and kayaking slalom at the site was to become a water amusement park. It didn't.
In light of the foregoing and last week’s lessons on governmental decision-making, what could possibly go wrong with this?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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June 15, 2010
On Leadership
If you read just one article this week, make it this one (H/T Mike at Crime & Federalism) – William Deresiewicz’s lecture to the plebe class at the United States Military Academy at West Point last year. A snippet:
That’s really the great mystery about bureaucracies. Why is it so often that the best people are stuck in the middle and the people who are running things—the leaders—are the mediocrities?
Because excellence isn’t usually what gets you up the greasy pole. What gets you up is a talent for maneuvering. Kissing up to the people above you, kicking down to the people below you. Pleasing your teachers, pleasing your superiors, picking a powerful mentor and riding his coattails until it’s time to stab him in the back. Jumping through hoops. Getting along by going along. Being whatever other people want you to be, so that it finally comes to seem that, like the manager of the Central Station, you have nothing inside you at all. Not taking stupid risks like trying to change how things are done or question why they’re done. Just keeping the routine going.
I tell you this to forewarn you, because I promise you that you will meet these people and you will find yourself in environments where what is rewarded above all is conformity. I tell you so you can decide to be a different kind of leader. And I tell you for one other reason.
As I thought about these things and put all these pieces together—the kind of students I had, the kind of leadership they were being trained for, the kind of leaders I saw in my own institution—I realized that this is a national problem. We have a crisis of leadership in this country, in every institution. Not just in government. Look at what happened to American corporations in recent decades, as all the old dinosaurs like General Motors or TWA or U.S. Steel fell apart. Look at what happened to Wall Street in just the last couple of years. [. . .]
We have a crisis of leadership in America because our overwhelming power and wealth, earned under earlier generations of leaders, made us complacent, and for too long we have been training leaders who only know how to keep the routine going. Who can answer questions, but don’t know how to ask them. Who can fulfill goals, but don’t know how to set them. Who think about how to get things done, but not whether they’re worth doing in the first place. What we have now are the greatest technocrats the world has ever seen, people who have been trained to be incredibly good at one specific thing, but who have no interest in anything beyond their area of expertise. What we don’t have are leaders.
What we don’t have, in other words, are thinkers. People who can think for themselves. People who can formulate a new direction: for the country, for a corporation or a college, for the Army—a new way of doing things, a new way of looking at things. People, in other words, with vision.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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June 9, 2010
The futility of regulating failure
David Warren makes a remarkably lucid point about the dubious notion that governmental action is the proper remedy to any wrong:
Politicians try to pass laws against it; to create rules and regulations so complex and cumbersome that (as we saw in the BP disaster) an easily-corrupted "judgement call" bureaucracy must grant exemptions from them, in order for anything to function at all. When disaster strikes, they add more rules and regulations.
But more profoundly, the rules and regulations -- once they pass a point of irreducible complexity -- create a mindset in which those who should be thinking about safety are instead focused on rules and regulations. To those who see danger, the glib answer comes, citing all the safety standards that have been diligently observed.
From what we already know, this appears to be exactly what happened aboard Deepwater Horizon, and will not be rectified by the U.S. government's latest, very political decision, to use means both fair and foul to prosecute British Petroleum, and punish the rest of the oil industry for its mistakes.
Let me mention in passing that President Barack Obama was in no way responsible for the catastrophe, and that there is nothing he can do about it. He is being held to blame for "inaction," as wrongly as his predecessor was held to blame over Hurricane Katrina, by media and public unable to cope with the proposition that, "Stuff happens."
In a sense, Obama is hoist on his own petard. The man who blames Bush for everything now finds there are some things presidents cannot do. More deeply, the opposition party that persuades the public government can solve all their problems, discovers once in power there are problems their government cannot solve.
Alas, it will take more time than they have to learn the next lesson: that governments which try to solve the insoluble, more or less invariably, make each problem worse.
I like to dwell on the wisdom of our ancestors. It took us millennia to emerge from the primitive notion that a malignant agency must lie behind every unfortunate experience. Indeed, the Catholic Church spent centuries fighting folk pagan beliefs in things like evil fairies, and the whole notion the Devil can compel any person to act against his will -- only to watch an explosion of witch-hunting and related popular hysterias at the time of the Reformation.
In so many ways, the trend of post-Christian society today is back to pagan superstitions: to the belief that malice lies behind every misfortune, and to the related idea that various, essentially pagan charms can be used to ward off that to which all flesh is heir. The belief that, for instance, laws can be passed, that change the entire order of nature, is among the most irrational of these.
Sheer human stupidity is the cause of any number of human catastrophes -- including the stupidity of superstition itself. We need to re-embrace this concept; to hug the native incompetence within ourselves, and begin forgiving it in others.
Amen.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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June 2, 2010
Obfuscation is government’s secret weapon
Over the past couple of years, Bill King has done a great job (and see generally here) of explaining how Houston’s unfunded public pension obligation represents a horrific burden on the city government’s financial condition.
Given that such obligations are clearly unsustainable, why does the city government continue to provide them?
Edward L. Glaeser provides the following particularly lucid explanation of the dynamic that leads to such profligacy:
On Friday, The New York Times ran a front-page article about pensions that took note of a 44-year-old retired police officer who receives an annual pension of $101,333 despite never having earned more than $74,000 a year in base pay. The article reported that in Yonkers alone “more than 100 retired police officers and firefighters are collecting pensions greater than their pay when they were working” and that “about 3,700 retired public workers in New York are now getting pensions of more than $100,000 a year, exempt from state and local taxes.”
The emotional response of many people is to vilify the retirees, but that’s a mistake. The individual police officers and firefighters were following the rules. They have jobs that require them to risk their lives in service of their communities, and large pensions are one payoff for accepting those risks and accepting relatively lower wages up front. I’m sure many of them are no less impatient than the rest of us and would have preferred to get more money in their 20s and less in their 50s.
The fault lies in the political process that makes their negotiating partners — state and local governments — more impatient than their employees. State and local governments don’t want to face the short-term consequences of paying higher wages, so they structure compensation in ways that defer the costs of each new deal for years.
Politics doesn’t just favor delayed compensation; it also favors forms of compensation that are particularly hard for people to evaluate. Governments almost always love obfuscation. The appeal of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was that they could subsidize homeownership without appearing to cost the taxpayers anything. Of course, they ended costing us plenty, just like hard-to-evaluate pension promises.
The rest of Glaeser’s post is here.
Sort of reminds one of this, this and this, eh?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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May 27, 2010
Children of the Taliban
Another fascinating TED video.
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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May 20, 2010
Is freedom possible without wealth?
From the fine HBO John Adams mini-series, Thomas Jefferson and Alexander Hamilton debate the relative importance of the creation of wealth to American society. Amazingly, the debate lives on today.
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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May 18, 2010
I like Chris Christie's style
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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May 17, 2010
The shameful state of the Incarceration Nation
The troubling U.S. incarceration rate – a direct result of the governmental policy of overcriminalization – has been a frequent topic on this blog (here, here, here, here, here,here, here, here, here, here and here).
In this post from last fall, Scott Henson notes that Kings College in London now has available here its latest "World Prison Population List" that reflects that the United States remains a world leader in incarceration rate by a large margin:
The United States has the highest prison population rate in the world, 756 per 100,000 of the national population, followed by Russia (629), Rwanda (604), St Kitts & Nevis (588), Cuba (c.531), U.S. Virgin Is. (512), British Virgin Is. (488), Palau (478), Belarus (468), Belize (455), Bahamas (422), Georgia (415), American Samoa (410), Grenada (408) and Anguilla (401).
America’s dubious drug prohibition policy is one of the reasons for the high incarceration rate. However, as this Houston Politics/Chronicle blog post notes, this National Sheriffs’ Association survey (H/T Doug Berman) reports that the United States imprisons many more mentally ill citizens than treating them in hospitals. This press release on the survey summarizes the sad story:
Americans with severe mental illnesses are three times more likely to be in jail or prison than in a psychiatric hospital, according to "More Mentally Ill Persons Are in Jails and Prisons Than Hospitals: A Survey of the States," a new report by the Treatment Advocacy Center and the National Sheriffs' Association.
"America's jails and prisons have once again become our mental hospitals," said James Pavle, executive director of the Treatment Advocacy Center, a nonprofit dedicated to removing barriers to timely and effective treatment of severe mental illnesses. "With minimal exception, incarceration has replaced hospitalization for thousands of individuals in every single state."
The odds of a seriously mentally ill individual being imprisoned rather than hospitalized are 3.2 to 1, state data shows. The report compares statistics from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the Bureau of Justice Statistics collected during 2004 and 2005, respectively. The report also found a very strong correlation between those states that have more mentally ill persons in jails and prisons and those states that are spending less money on mental health services.
Severely mentally ill individuals suffering from diseases of the brain, such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, often do not receive the treatment they need in a hospital or outpatient setting. The consequences can be devastating – homelessness, victimization, incarceration, repeated hospitalization, and death.
"The present situation, whereby individuals with serious mental illnesses are being put into jails and prisons rather than into hospitals, is a disgrace to American medicine and to common decency and fairness," said study author E. Fuller Torrey, M.D., a research psychiatrist and founder of the Treatment Advocacy Center. "If societies are judged by how they treat their most disabled members, our society will be judged harshly indeed."
Recent studies suggest that at least 16 percent of inmates in jails and prisons have a serious mental illness. According to author and National Sheriffs' Association Executive Director Aaron Kennard, "Jails and prisons are not designed for treating patients, and law enforcement officials are not trained to be mental health professionals."
Ratios of imprisonment versus hospitalization vary from state to state, as the report indicates. On the low end, North Dakota has an equal number of mentally ill individuals in hospitals as in jails or prisons. By contrast, Arizona and Nevada have 10 times as many mentally ill individuals in prisons and jails than in hospitals.
Among the study's recommended solutions are for states to adopt effective assisted outpatient treatment laws to keep individuals with untreated brain disorders out of the criminal justice system and in treatment. Assisted outpatient treatment is a viable alternative to inpatient hospitalization because it allows courts to order certain individuals with brain disorders to comply with treatment while living in the community. Studies show assisted outpatient treatment drastically reduces hospitalization, homelessness, arrest, and incarceration among people with severe psychiatric disorders, while increasing adherence to treatment and overall quality of life. . . .
More evidence of the myth of American exceptionalism?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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May 14, 2010
The War on Drugs goes viral
The perverse damage that federal and state drug prohibition policies impose on American citizens and our neighbors has been a frequent topic on this blog over the years.
In this must-read Reason.com article, Radley Balko reviews how America’s drug prohibition policies are increasingly being used as a basis for conducting Gestapo-like raids on American citizens:
Last week, a Columbia, Missouri, drug raid captured on video went viral. As of this morning, the video had garnered 950,000 views on YouTube. It has lit up message boards, blogs, and discussion groups around the Web, unleashing anger, resentment and even, regrettably, calls for violence against the police officers who conducted the raid.
I've been writing about and researching these raids for about five years, including raids that claimed the lives of innocent children, grandmothers, college students, and bystanders. Innocent families have been terrorized by cops who raided on bad information, or who raided the wrong home due to some careless mistake. There's never been a reaction like this one.
But despite all the anger the raid has inspired, the only thing unusual thing here is that the raid was captured on video, and that the video was subsequently released to the press. Everything else was routine. Save for the outrage coming from Columbia residents themselves, therefore, the mass anger directed at the Columbia Police Department over the last week is misdirected.
Raids just like the one captured in the video happen 100-150 times every day in America. Those angered by that video should probably look to their own communities. Odds are pretty good that your local police department is doing the same thing.
Meanwhile, after suggesting on the campaign trail that drug prohibition policies needed to be changed, President Obama has cynically and hypocritically retreated and now supports the federal government’s drug prohibition policy. Meanwhile, the enormous costs of the dubious policy continue to pile up.
America’s War on Drugs is lost. It is way past time that we require our leaders to acknowledge that and end it. Their war has now become a war on us.
Update: Scott Henson has more.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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May 11, 2010
My favorite Mayor
Is unquestionably Las Vegas’ Oscar Goodman:
Q: Prior to politics, you represented accused organized crime figures. What’s the biggest difference between politics and the mob?
A: My clients gave me their word, and their word was their bond. They always paid me. They always thanked me at the end of the day.
In the political world, none of that happens. A politician’s word usually doesn’t mean a damn. His word is for the moment.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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May 5, 2010
The beneficial nature of derivatives
I don't watch much television news. But when I catch a glimpse these days, it always seems as if some politician is loudly declaring the need for more governmental financial regulation.
Mostly, the politicos contend that financial derivatives are dangerous instruments that are contrary to sound public policy. We have to protect those poor souls who bet against John Paulson, don't you see?
But the proponents of this view simply do not want to understand the nature of derivatives, just as most of the same ones didn't want to understand the valuable nature of the risk management of natural gas prices that Ken Lay and Jeff Skilling contributed to markets 20 years ago.
Derivatives are simply a way for an investor to warn by trading - that is, by putting his money where his mouth is - that he has information about an upcoming shift in the markets. That facilitates a transparent and well-informed marketplace.
However, heavily regulating traders from taking advantage of that valuable source of information only makes it more difficult for valuable information about market shifts to reach the marketplace. How is that good for investors seeking as transparent and well-informed marketplace as possible?
An underappreciated cause of the Wall Street crisis was the underlying information failure. As opposed to restricting trading, we ought to be finding ways to bring more information to the market faster so that prices can be adjusted promptly. Rather than demonizing folks who bet their money in bringing information to the marketplace, we ought to be encouraging them.
I won't hold my breath waiting for that to happen.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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April 29, 2010
Why do we do this to ourselves?
As we ponder how one governmental agency -- which couldn't uncover Bernie Madoff or Stanford Financial's sketchy affairs despite being told about them -- is going to make a fraud case against Goldman Sachs on a transaction between sophisticated investors who knew what was going on, let's check out another government agency's bumbling decision-making:
More than thirty organizations across the political spectrum have filed a formal petition with the Department of Homeland Security, urging the federal agency to suspend the airport body scanner program.
Leading security expert Bruce Schneier stated, "Body scanners are one more example of security theater.
Last year, the organizations asked Secretary Janet Napolitano to give the public an opportunity to comment on the proposal to expand the body scanner program. Secretary Napolitano rejected the request. Since that time, evidence has emerged that the privacy safeguards do not work and that the devices are not very effective.
"At this point, there is no question that the body scanner program should be shut down. This is the worst type of government boondoggle -- expensive, ineffective, and offensive to Constitutional rights and deeply held religious beliefs," said Marc Rotenberg, President of EPIC.
And if Bruce Schneier's opinion isn't good enough for you, take heed of what a leading security expert who is constantly on the front lines says about the scanners:
A leading Israeli airport security expert says the Canadian government has wasted millions of dollars to install "useless" imaging machines at airports across the country.
"I don't know why everybody is running to buy these expensive and useless machines. I can overcome the body scanners with enough explosives to bring down a Boeing 747," Rafi Sela told parliamentarians probing the state of aviation safety in Canada.
"That's why we haven't put them in our airport," Sela said, referring to Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion International Airport, which has some of the toughest security in the world.
Sela, former chief security officer of the Israel Airport Authority and a 30-year veteran in airport security and defence technology, helped design the security at Ben Gurion.
Despite what the experts say, he wasteful airport security process that we have allowed the Transportation Security Administration to impose on us continues unabated at a substantial direct cost and an even greater indirect one.
It's bad enough that the TSA's procedures do virtually nothing to discourage serious terrorist threats. What's worse is that the inspection process is really just "security theater" that makes only a few naive travelers feel safer about airline travel.
And if all that weren't bad enough, the worst news is that once a governmental "safeguard" such as the TSA procedures are adopted, Congress has no interest in dismantling it even when it's clear that process is ineffective, expensive and obtrusive to citizens. Stated simply, the TSA has become a jobs program for thousands of registered voters.
James Fallows sums up the absurdity of the situation well:
TSA + defense contractor + security theater vs Israeli expert + Schneier + common sense.
Hmmm, I don't know what to believe.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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April 26, 2010
A real bad mix
Regular readers of this blog know about the human carnage that results from abuse of the government’s prosecutorial power.
Also, the immense damage that overly-broad application of child predator laws is inflicting on many citizens has been a frequent topic on this blog.
But, as Bill Anderson has been chronicling over the past month in regard to the Tonya Craft case, when both of these dynamics are involved in a particular case, the results are so troubling that they seem surreal.
We like to think that we have evolved to a point at which witch hunts are no longer possible. But the truth is that we are still quite capable of mounting them.
As Ayn Rand observed about those who abuse state power to further their supposedly altruistic goals:
"[T]he truth about their souls is worse than the obscene excuse you have allowed them, the excuse that the end justifies the means and that the horrors they practice are means to nobler ends."
"The truth is that those horrors are their ends."
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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April 21, 2010
Representing society’s new lepers
The increasingly draconian application of child predator and pornography laws has been a frequent topic on this blog.
Norm Pattis does a good job of summarizing the ominous information that defense counsel should provide to defendants and their families face when ensnared in such a prosecution. The bottom line is that the prosecution itself and the usual resulting prison sentence is only the beginning of the defendant’s troubles. The aftermath is often even worse.
No one objects to putting away true child predators. But when the tough criminal laws that are used to imprison the child predators are turned against young people who made a mistake in an underage relationship or in viewing pornography, the stark penalties cause needless damage to lives, careers and families.
Organizations such as Texas Voices are informing the public of this tragic waste and the need for reform. It is a worthy cause for a constituency that has no political leverage. Consider lending them your support.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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April 18, 2010
Our troubling tax system
Another first rate Cato Institute video on the horrific cost of our overly complicated taxation system.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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April 15, 2010
Milton Friedman on poverty
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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April 12, 2010
The Death of American Virtue
I just finished Ken Gormley’s The Death of American Virtue: Clinton v. Starr (Crown 2010) and recommend it highly to anyone who is interested in a thorough examination of the dynamics and circumstances that lead to the abuse of the government’s enormous prosecutorial power.
What started out as an investigation into Bill and Hillary Clinton’s small investment in a failed real estate deal (Whitewater) turned into a tsunami of litigation that practically paralyzed the executive and legislative branches of the federal government for months. Essentially, when the attorneys involved in the investigation couldn’t pin anything of substance on the Clintons in regard to Whitewater, they jumped at the opportunity to set President Clinton up to lie in a civil deposition and before a grand jury in regard to his relationship with former White House intern, Monica Lewinsky.
Although few of the attorneys involved in either side of this battle come out looking good, this scrupulously even-handed book places most of the blame at the hands of Ken Starr and his Office of Independent Council prosecutorial team. The fact that Starr and his team thought they could get away with intimidating Lewinsky in a hotel room for over 12 hours without allowing her to contact her counsel speaks volumes of how out of touch they were with the pursuit of justice, not to mention legal ethics. That type of reasoning is why, on balance, Starr and his prosecutorial team come out looking worse than President Clinton and his defenders despite the fact that Clinton lied about his relationship with Lewinsky under oath on two occasions.
One of the most interesting of the dozens of fascinating anecdotes in the book involves Starr’s dubious decision to de-emphasize the Whitewater investigation in favor of the Clinton-Lewinsky investigation. Hickman Ewing, who was Starr’s deputy running the Whitewater investigation in Little Rock at the time the Lewinsky investigation exploded in Washington, had concluded that Hillary Clinton had committed crimes in regard to her involvement in Whitewater. I’m not as sure as Ewing that she did commit any crime – most of what Hillary did appeared to me to be the actions of a lawyer who was simply over her head in dealing with a faltering real estate development and a failing S&L.
At any rate, "[i]n Ewing's eyes, Mrs. Clinton had lied to the [Office of Independent Council], had lied to the grand jury, and would keep lying until the cows came home if she was not brought to justice," writes Gormley. Ewing went so far as to draft an indictment of Hillary for conspiracy to conceal her true relationship with the Madison Guaranty S&L in order to “avoid and evade political, criminal and civil liability, fraudulently secure additional income for the Rose Law Firm and safeguard the political campaigns of William Jefferson Clinton.” But because the focus of the investigation had turned toward President Clinton’s relationship with Lewinsky, Starr and the other prosecutors outvoted Ewing and elected not to dilute their investigation with a prosecution of Hillary.
Thus, with more than a touch of irony, Ewing observed, "Monica saved Hillary."
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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April 11, 2010
The Pope and the NY Times
It all seems so clear, doesn’t it?
As this Laurie Goodstein/Michael Luo/NY Times article presents, Pope Benedict XVI and a chronically corrupt Roman Catholic Church have been complicit in the protection of child-abusing priests.
But as this William McGurn/WSJ op-ed notes, the Times’ reporters undisclosed feeding of information from plaintiff’s lawyers who have made a cottage industry out of suing the Catholic Church raises as many questions as the ones the Times raises about the church’s handling of the sex-abuse cases. As McGurn notes:
The man who is now pope reopened cases that had been closed; did more than anyone to process cases and hold abusers accountable; and became the first pope to meet with victims. Isn't the more reasonable interpretation of all these events that Cardinal Ratzinger's experience with cases like Murphy's helped lead him to promote reforms that gave the church more effective tools for handling priestly abuse?
Yeah, but reporting that would not sell as many newspapers. And also not comply with the objectives of undisclosed agendas.
Morality plays are comforting because they make it easy to identify and demonize the villains. The truth is usually more nuanced and complicated, but ultimately more fulfilling to understand and less likely to generate witch hunts.
Update: Father Raymond J. De Souza provides more insight into the Kiesle case.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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April 9, 2010
Another absurd cost of security theater
How much wasteful spending on security theater is enough?
Bruce Schneier links to U.S. Representative John Duncan’s Congressional observation about the Federal Air Marshals Service:
Actually, there have been many more arrests of Federal air marshals than that story reported, quite a few for felony offenses. In fact, more air marshals have been arrested than the number of people arrested by air marshals.
We now have approximately 4,000 in the Federal Air Marshals Service, yet they have made an average of just 4.2 arrests a year since 2001. This comes out to an average of about one arrest a year per 1,000 employees.
Now, let me make that clear. Their thousands of employees are not making one arrest per year each. They are averaging slightly over four arrests each year by the entire agency.
In other words, we are spending approximately $200 million per arrest.
Let me repeat that: we are spending approximately $200 million per arrest.
One could quibble that spending per arrest is not an entirely fair measure of effectiveness. A good deterrent effect means fewer arrests, right?
Nevertheless, it’s a pretty good indication of misdirected resources if a law enforcement agency’s officers are more likely to be arrested than to make arrests.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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April 7, 2010
How will Obamacare ration care?
During the latter stages of the debate over reform of the American health finance system, one of the key issues that seemed to fade amidst the rhetoric was the question of how the revamped health finance system will ration care (see also here). Inasmuch as it is still not clear to me how care will be rationed under Obamacare, this recent Happy Hospitalist post caught my eye:
I'm down in the ER the other day when I see a chief complaint fly by on the radar. What is that chief complaint you ask? “Refused by Detox.”
The patient was so drunk, even the community detox center refused them. So how did this play out? The patient was taken by ambulance from his home to a small town community ER for altered mental status. There, he was booked into the ER and seen by a small town community
ER physicianfamily practice resident or PA or NP. Diagnosis you ask? “Acute alcohol intoxication. Plan: Discharge to community detox center.”The patient was then transported to detox by a cop where he was promptly refused by detox for being too drunk. Too drunk for detox. How sad is that. At this point another ambulance was called and the small town hospital refused to accept him back because he was "too drunk" for them to handle if he became comatose and critically ill.
So the ambulance drove him 75 miles to Happy's hospital which has to accept him, where he was promptly booked into the emergency department in front of the 28 year old with heart burn, the 19 year old looking to get a pregnancy test and the 14 year old who's mother brought her in because she just had her first period. What happened with our drunk? He was promptly placed in a room where stat lab confirmed what everyone else had suspected. He was drunk. The big city ER doctor billing $500 an hour proudly made his diagnosis and disposition plans known to the world: “Acute alcohol intoxication. Plan: Discharge to community detox.”
By now, the patient's alcohol level was down to 320 and he was awake, responsive and asking for a samich as the cops show up to take him away. Let's conservatively add it up:
Two ambulance rides $1,000 Two ER visits $3,000 Two ER physician visits $500Almost $5,000 to take care of a drunk in which doing nothing would have given you the same result. And you wonder why Medicaid is going bankrupt.
The Hospitalist goes on to point out how expenses such as the foregoing is eventually going to lead to failure of many inner-city hospitalists. But an equally troubling issue is whether anything will change in regard to future opportunities for misallocation of expenses under an increasingly subsidized health care system?
Frankly, I doubt it.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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March 23, 2010
Thoughts on health care finance reform
Inasmuch as America’s fractured health care finance system has been a common topic on this blog since early 2004, many friends and readers have asked my thoughts about the health care reform legislation that was passed yesterday. So here goes.
The legislation is fundamentally flawed because it imprudently foists a top-down reorganization plan on something as complex and disparate as financing health care. But frankly, I have no idea whether it will result in a worse finance system than the current one, which is pretty bad.
My biggest criticism with both the current system and the one contemplated by Obamacare is that the patient is not the customer, at least as it relates to non-catastrophic illness and injury. Without cost control – and customer decision-making is the most efficient one available - neither the current system nor Obamacare will be able to maintain delivery of high-quality care to an increasingly aging population.
However, the reality is that we now have two solid generations of Americans now who enjoy having someone else pay for their health care. So, it’s unrealistic to think that such a societal shift is going to change anytime soon. But it’s still important to understand how we got to this point.
Employer-based health insurance became popular during World War II because it was initially exempted from gross income as a way to circumvent wartime wage and price controls. After the war, marginal income tax rates were high and individual medical expenses were tax deductible, so at least some rational incentives were returned to the medical marketplace.
But all this changed in 1986 when the Reagan Administration made concessions to achieve bipartisan tax reform. Individual medical expenses were no longer deductible until they reached 7.5% of gross income, which virtually eliminated individual incentives in the medical marketplace. Not surprisingly, everyone was incentivized after tax reform to move all medical expenses to third-party-payor health insurance. As a result, individual out-of-pocket expenses in the health care market dropped from 22% in 1985 to less than than 10% of the market now.
So, in essence, the Reagan Administration horse-traded personal tax deductibility of medical expenses away, but figured that was acceptable because at least employer health insurance remained tax-free benefit. I’m sure if we could ask him now, President Reagan would tell you that he expected a future Congress would fix such perverse incentives after the dust settled on the benefits of tax reform. But alas, that never happened.
What happens now? The only certainly is that special interests will be descending upon Washington in droves to do their bidding over the transfers of wealth that will occur under the new legislation. At least it will be entertaining to watch who wins and loses.
But there are two big points that everyone should remember as we embark on this new world of health care finance.
First, the Obama Administration’s rationalization of future cuts in Medicare spending as a funding source for the health care legislation is utterly disingenuous, as Arnold Kling artfully explains:
Imagine that your crazy uncle Fred had bought a dozen cars on credit. As a result, he faces car payments far in excess of what he can afford. He comes to you and says he has a plan that in a couple of years will reduce his car payments by a few thousand dollars. "Now I have the money for a down payment on a boat!" he exclaims, as he runs off to the boat dealer.
The equivalent is for Congress to treat future cuts in Medicare as if they were a newfound source of wealth to be tapped. Once they adopt this precedent, they can increase spending on whatever they want, in unlimited amounts, while claiming deficit neutrality. Future Medicare spending is so high that you can always come up with cuts, as long as they deferred.
Second, as Greg Mankiw notes, projected Medicare cuts in payment rates for physician services portend the rationing of medical services that the promoters of the current legislation contend won’t occur. Because few consumers actually pay for their health care, most folks don’t realize that Medicare and Medicaid payment rates for physician services have already been cut by around 30% since the late 1990’s. That has led many doctors to limit substantially the number of Medicare and Medicaid patients who they are willing to treat in their practices. In my view, that trend is likely to continue under the new legislation. Who will tend to the medical needs of consumers who elect to rely on such insurance in the future?
Supporters of Obamacare generally argue that the legislation offers more equality through expanded insurance and redistribution of benefits. But the wealthy will always find ways to get around the rationing and other restrictions of a government-run health care system. On the other hand, the poor will have no choice but to accept the government health care, which is unlikely to be as high a quality as what the rich folks obtain from their private doctors. Accordingly, although the distribution of health care may be a bit more equal in the short term, I'm not sure that means more equality in health care in the long run.
Which leads me to this question: How long will it be before the federal government requires physicians, as a condition to being allowed to engage in private practice, to accept a certain number of patients under government-sponsored insurance plans that limit payments to the physicians far below what the physicians would otherwise accept?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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March 17, 2010
The Metro Train Wreck
The Metropolitan Transit Authority has been in the news recently mostly because of a good, old-fashioned document-shredding scandal and yet another spectacular crash.
But the more important issue facing Houstonians is that Metro is preparing to force large swaths of the community – including the key Uptown area near the Galleria -- to incur the enormous cost of enduring construction of its inefficient and impractical rail lines.
Bill King has spent a considerable amount of his time over the past several years studying Metro and Houston’s transit problems. In this devastating post, King finds that Metro is close to barreling completely out of any semblance of fiscal control:
There could hardly be a more fitting image for the close of the current Metro administration than the recent photographs for a wrecked Metro buses in front of Metro's headquarters after having been broad-sided by Metro's Main Street light rail. The last six years are likely to be remembered as the most ruinous time for public transportation in Houston's history as Metro has pursued a single-minded obsession to build its version of an at-grade rail system regardless of the cost, both in financial terms and in the degradation of the bus system on which over 100,000 Houstonians rely daily. Fortunately, Mayor Parker has ordered top-to-bottom review of the agency. Here is what that review is likely to find.
Decline in Ridership. Since 2004, Houston population has grown by over 10% from just over 2 million to 2.25 million. At the same time gas prices rose 47% from $1.81 per gallon to $2.67 per gallon. These two factors should have virtually guaranteed an increase in transit. However, exactly the opposite has occurred as bus boardings dropped almost 24% from 88 million in 2004 to 67 million in 2009. Instead of increasing bus service by 50% as it promised the voters in the 2003 referendum, Metro has slashed bus routes and increased fares by over 50%. Today Metro actually operates 225 fewer buses than it did in 2003. An outside performance audit in 2008 found that on-time performance fell by 29% from 2004 to 2008.
Financial Disaster. Since 2003, Metro's sales tax revenues have increased by 43%, rising from $357 million to $512 million. At the same time, its fare revenue increased by 41% from $42 million to $60 million by charging an ever dwindling ridership more. Yet, Metro is in the worst financial shape in recent history. At year end 2003 Metro's current assets exceeded its current liabilities by $125 million. The budget just adopted by the Metro board projects that it will have current accounts deficit of $165 million by the end of this fiscal year, a stunning loss of nearly $300 million in just five years. Over the same period, Metro's debt has swelled by nearly 50% from $546 million to $816 million. [. . .]
In the meantime, the cost of the [Metro’s Light Rail Transit lines] has risen from the $1.2 billion originally estimated to something well in excess of $3 billion. Metro is seeking to borrow $2.6 billion to build the LRT, over four times what it promised the voters would be the limit in the 2003 referendum. Originally, Metro assured voters that it could build the LRT without tapping the mobility payments that are so critical to the Houston and the other member cities. Metro's projections now show that it can only afford the LRT if those payments are terminated in 2014. [. . .]
In 2003, after a spirited public debate, this community approved, by a narrow margin, a consensus plan to enhance public transportation with a multi-modal approach. Part of that bargain was a limited experiment with a light rail system. The voters specifically limited the resources that Metro could devote to the light rail for fear that the cost might undermine the solid, dependable bus service that existed at that time. Metro's leadership has shredded that contract with the voters in favor of its own grandiose vision of transit that has little to do actually solving Houston's mobility problems. In the meantime, traffic congestion continues to get worse and working families that rely on public transportation to get their jobs everyday find riding Metro a more difficult and more expensive proposition.
Read King’s entire post. Metro’s defenders typically rely on the 2003 referendum as the primary basis for their continued support of such wasteful spending. But the problem with such referendums is that they ask voters to approve large public ventures such as Metro in a vacuum while ignoring Peter Gordon's three elegantly simple questions regarding economic choices:
1) At what cost?
2) Compared to what? and
3) How do you know?
For example, assume for a moment that voters were informed of the fact that the average urban freeway lane costs about $10 million per mile and that the average light rail line costs over $50 million per mile while carrying less than one-fifth as many people as the freeway lane. And these are only average figures.
Moreover, let's assume that voters were informed that the expenditure of a billion or so of public money on expanding a lightly-used light rail system has real consequences, such as leaving inadequate funds to make improvements to Houston's infrastructure that would dramatically decrease the risk of death and property damage from flooding. Or whether the billion or so being flushed down the light rail drain would be better used to fix various area traffic "hotspots" where accidents or bottlenecks occur with high frequency.
No one knows for sure, but my bet is that voting results would be dramatically different if the foregoing costs and alternatives were included as a part of the referendum.
Unfortunately, the relatively small groups that benefit from these urban boondoggles have a vested interest in keeping that threshold issue from ever being re-examined. The economic benefit of light rail is highly concentrated in only a few interest groups, such as political representatives of minority communities who tout the political accomplishment of shiny toy rail lines while ignoring their constituents need for more effective mass transit; environmental groups striving for political influence; construction-related firms that feed at the trough of Metro's poor investment decisions; and private real estate developers who enrich themselves through the increase in their property values along the rail line. As Professor Gordon wryly-noted in another post: "It adds up to a winning coalition."
Unfortunately, once such coalitions are successful in establishing a governmental policy subsidizing such boondoggles, it is much more difficult to end the public subsidy of the boondoggle than to start it in the first place.
None of these above-stated reasons for mass transit appeal to the vast majority of the electorate, so this amalgamation of interest groups continues to disguise their true interests behind amorphous claims that the uneconomic rail lines reduce traffic congestion (they do not), curb air pollution (they do not), or improve the quality of life (at least debatable).
How do these interest groups get away with this? The costs of such systems are widely dispersed among the local population of an area such as Houston, so the many who stand to lose will lose only a little while the few who stand to gain will gain a lot. As a result, these small interest groups recognize that it is usually not worth the relatively small cost per taxpayer for most citizens to spend any substantial amount of time or money lobbying or simply taking the time to vote against an uneconomic rail system.
Metro's rail system is a bad virus that has infected Houston. The cost of treating this civic virus is growing larger each month. Without immediate re-examination of Metro's light rail plan, the increasing costs of this plan risk turning this currently manageable problem into a major civic fiscal crisis that could negatively affect the Houston area's growth and prosperity.
As Bill King exhibits, real leadership involves recognizing that risk and addressing it, not indulging it.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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March 12, 2010
Exposing the myth of American exceptionalism
Conrad Black’s prison routine allows him time to think and write, which is a good thing in view of the enormous waste that results from his dubious imprisonment.
This week Lord Black takes aim at the myth of American exceptionalism promoted in this recent Richard Lowry and Ramesh Ponnurus essay (Walter McDougall has examined the origins of this myth in detail in the first two books of his fine three-part series on American history). In challenging the myth, Lord Black takes dead aim at a common topic on this blog – the overcriminalization of American life:
The wages of this [Cold War] victory have included the stale-dating of the authors’ claim that America “is freer, more individualistic, more democratic, and more open and dynamic than any other nation on earth.” It is more dynamic because of its size, the torpor of Europe and Japan, and the shambles of Russia.
But Americans do not do themselves a favor by not recognizing the terrible erosion of their country’s education, justice, and political systems, the shortcomings of U.S. health care, the collapse of its financial industry, the flight of most of its manufacturing, and the steep and generally unlamented decline of its prestige.
. . . Rampaging and often lawless prosecutors win 95 percent of their cases (compared to 55 percent in Canada), by softening the pursuit of some in exchange for inculpatory perjury against others, in the plea-bargain system. The U.S. has six to fourteen times as many imprisoned people as other advanced prosperous democracies, and they languish in a corrupt carceral system that retains as many people as possible for as long as possible. There are an astounding 47 million Americans with a “record,” and the country glories with unseemly glee in the joys of the death penalty. Due process and the other guarantees of individual rights of the Fifth, Sixth, and Eighth Amendments (such as the grand jury as any sort of assurance against capricious prosecution) scarcely exist in practice.
Most of the Congress is an infestation of paid-for legislators from rotten boroughs, representing the interests that finance their elections and exchanging earmarks with their colleagues like casbah hucksters. . . .
Lord Black can sure still turn a phrase -- “casbah hucksters.” Ha!
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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February 25, 2010
The future of the death penalty
University of Houston Law Professor David Dow’s book -- The Autobiography of an Execution (Twelve 2010) – prompted Time to ask Dow several questions about the death penalty. A couple of his answers are particularly interesting:
. . . I tell people that if you're going to commit murder, you want to be white, and you want to be wealthy — so that you can hire a first-class lawyer — and you want to kill a black person. And if [you are], the odds of your being sentenced to death are basically zero. It's one thing to say that rich people should be able to drive Ferraris and poor people should have to take the bus. It's very different to say that rich people should get treated one way by the state's criminal-justice system and poor people should get treated another way. But that is the system that we have.
And what about the future of the death penalty?
My prediction is that we're going to get rid of it for economic reasons. We spend at least a million dollars more on a death penalty case than on a non-death-penalty case. In the U.S., where we've executed 1,200 people since the death penalty [was reinstated in 1976], that's $1.2 billion. I just think, gosh, with $1.2 billion, you could hire a lot of policemen. You could have a lot of educational programs inside of prisons so that when people come out of prison they know how to do something besides rob convenience stores and sell drugs. There are already counties in Texas, of all places, that have said, this is just not worth it: let's fix the schools and fill the potholes in the streets instead of squandering this money on a death-penalty case. You don't need to be a bleeding heart to make that argument.
Supporters of the death penalty reason that there is nothing morally wrong about the state killing a person as punishment for murder where that person was lawfully convicted in a fair and accurate criminal justice process. But in making that moral justification the central tenet of their support, death penalty supporters are ignoring the glaring defects in the process that undermine their moral justification.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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February 24, 2010
No way to fight a war
Here we go again. U.S. military forces are put on the defensive because of what might be an unfortunate mistake in prosecuting the war against the Taliban.
When are we going to learn that fighting wars under unrealistic rules of engagement is a waste of time and precious resources?
A reasonable case can be made that the U.S. should not be conducting military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Similarly, a reasonable case can be made that such operations are necessary for the defense of the U.S.
But once the decision is made to commit military forces, no reasonable case can be made -- particularly given the enormous difficulties faced-- that U.S. Armed Forces should be constrained from winning the war by unrealistic rules of engagement.
If we are unwilling to stomach to do the dirty business that is necessary to win such wars, then we have no business getting involved in them in the first place. The defense summation in Breaker Morant brilliantly frames the issue in the context of Britain's involvement in the Boer War:
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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February 22, 2010
A culture of abuse
The big legal news over the weekend is the Department of Justice’s decision not to recommend disciplinary proceedings against Cal-Berkeley law professor John C. Yoo and federal appellate Judge Jay S. Bybee for their participation in a series of DOJ memos that provided the dubious legal basis for the use of torture against enemy prisoners after the attacks of September 11, 2001. John Steele has done a great job of cataloging the blogosphere’s reaction to the DOJ’s decision.
The DOJ’s report outraged Jack Balkin, who opined that “the standard for attorney misconduct is set pretty damn low, and is only violated by lawyers who (here I put it colloquially) are the scum of the earth. Lawyers barely above the scum of the earth are therefore excused.” On the other hand, the Wall Street Journal contends that the report vindicates Yoo and Bybee. Yoo provides his own defense here.
Although the DOJ’s report paints a fairly clear case of Yoo and Bybee providing a colorable legal cover for what the interrogation tactics that the Bush Administration wanted to pursue come hell or high water, that conduct is utterly unsurprising. The DOJ has been engaging in torture-like treatment over the past year of Allen Stanford, who is still awaiting trial. Similarly, the DOJ has regularly engaged in other astonishing abuses of power in connection with the prosecutions of Jeff Skilling, Jamie Olis and many others.
Our failure to hold governmental officials responsible for abuse of power toward our fellow citizens helped create the culture in which the leap to sanction torture against enemy combatants was a small one. That culture will be very difficult to change.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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February 16, 2010
How much is “affordable” health care?
Uwe Reinhardt posted this insightful Economix post last week in which he bores in on the key issue to be resolved in reforming the U.S. health care finance system:
I could easily offer every American family a health insurance policy it could afford, simply by varying judiciously the annual deductible, the coinsurance rate, upper limits on items ostensibly covered by the policy and exclusions from coverage of sundry services or products — for example, mental health services or certain specialty drugs.
The policy might be a sham; but it sure would be cheap.
Health insurance is just a means by which needed health care can be made “affordable” to Americans when they fall ill. Therefore the proper target of health policy should be the family’s total outlay on health care, including out-of-pocket spending. That total outlay on “needed health care” should be made “affordable.”
Which requires us to define concretely, for practical purposes, what we mean by “health care” and “affordable,” pedantic as that may sound. Politicians should be forced to be utterly clear about it. [. . .]
President Obama could make this idea practical by using a visual device such as the table [above]. In that table “disposable income” is defined as all personal income from whatever source minus all personal income tax payments and other government deductions. The numbers are annual. . . .
Professor Reinhardt makes a good point about the disingenuous nature of health insurance. As I noted here, most forms of health insurance – particularly the employer-based kind -- insulate consumers from understanding the truce cost of their health care choices. As a result, most consumers – and virtually all legislators in Washington – have no idea on what amount of health care costs are “affordable.” Most insureds are pleased that someone else is footing the bill and simply don’t want to lose that perk.
Health insurance is largely the product of bad governmental policy (wage controls during World War II) and, as is often the case with such policies, there are unintended consequences that are even worse than the misdirected governmental policy. In this case, we have two generations of Americans who have been largely insulated from needing to know the true cost of some of their most fundamental choices and needs in life.
Such ignorance is now hindering reform of the fractured U.S. health care finance system. But any health care finance reform that does not rely at least in part on reigniting a consumer market to control costs will likely be even more expensive and less satisfying than the current system.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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February 15, 2010
The common sense of civil unions
This WaPo article from last week on a recent WaPo/ABC News poll was interesting:
. . . opinions nationwide remain closely divided, but two-thirds of all Americans now say gay and lesbian couples should be able to have the same rights as heterosexual couples through civil unions.
In a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, 47 percent say gay marriages should be legal, with 31 percent saying they feel that way "strongly." Intensity is stronger among opponents, however: overall, half say such marriages should be illegal, including 42 percent who say so strongly.
Civil unions draw broader support. Two-thirds now say they favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to form civil unions that would give them many of the same legal rights as married couples.
Frankly, this is one of those contentious political issues for which there appears to be a simple solution. But implementing the solution will take some clear thinking, which is in short supply these days in our legislative circles.
The bottom line is that the state has no business being involved in the “marriage business.” That should be left to churches, some of which will approve gay marriages and some of which will not.
On the other hand, the state should provide for civil unions between same-sex and opposite-sex couples to promote societal stability through conferring the same rights relating to property, family, inheritance, etc. that are presently conferred through the institution of civil marriage.
For practical and legal purposes, such civil unions would be the same as civil marriages. And, as the poll numbers above reflect, most folks don’t have a problem with providing the same contractual and legal rights to gay couples through civil unions as opposite-sex couples presently enjoy through civil marriage. However, because most states presently only provide for civil marriage, the use of the term “marriage” becomes a hot button issue that provokes needless opposition to the implementation of the civil union concept in regard to same-sex couples to promote legitimate societal interests.
Thus, the solution is to have the state get out of the marriage business entirely and provide civil unions to opposite-sex and and same-sex couples. Many couples would still choose to get married in religious ceremonies, which is fine. But a couple that does not have access to marriage in a church would no longer be deprived of the legal and contractual rights that most states presently confer upon only married couples.
It sure seems as if this solution would solve the primary legal issues relating to continued state bans on gay marriages. Moreover, it would relegate the debate on marriage between same-sex couples to the churches and extract it from the political arena.
What’s not to like about that?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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February 12, 2010
Milton Friedman on freedom, capitalism and colonialism
Got to love the way Friedman ignores the contentious introduction to the questions and maintains the integrity of intellectual discourse. H/T Almost Chosen People.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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February 11, 2010
Lifestyle Nutritionists
In this clever sketch, That Mitchell and Webb Look channel the mentality behind the legislation discussed in yesterday’s post.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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February 8, 2010
The wisdom of Will
Tax simplification has been a frequent topic on this blog. So, I was enthused to see George Will knock the ball out of the park in describing the U.S. income tax system while addressing the issue in his WaPo Sunday column:
“Today's tax system was shaped by sadists who were trying to be nice: Every wrinkle in the code was put there to benefit this or that interest.”
The proposals that Will addresses would do more for the American economy than virtually any other proposal on the table at this point. Unfortunately, the proposals have virtually no chance of being implemented.
So it goes.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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February 5, 2010
Justice Kennedy notices a couple of troubling issues
Overcriminalization of life and the appalling condition of our country’s prison facilities have been frequent subjects on this blog over the years. At least one member of the U.S. Supreme Court has taken notice:
U.S. Supreme Court Justice Anthony M. Kennedy criticized California sentencing policies and crowded prisons Wednesday night, calling the influence that unionized prison guards had in passing the three-strikes law "sick."
In an otherwise courtly and humorous address to the Los Angeles legal community, Kennedy expressed obvious dismay over the state of corrections and rehabilitation in the country. He said U.S. sentences are eight times longer than those issued by European courts.
"California now has 185,000 people in prison at $32,500 a year" each, he said. He then urged voters and officials to compare that expense to what taxpayers spend per pupil in elementary schools.
"The three-strikes law sponsor is the correctional officers' union and that is sick!" Kennedy said of the measure mandating life sentences for third-time criminal offenders.
As Doug Berman points out, perhaps Justice Kennedy’s remarks are a prelude to the Supreme Court’s consideration of several important sentencing cases in its upcoming term. At some point, we need to ask ourselves the question – why are we doing this to ourselves?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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February 2, 2010
Running into the abyss
17th century philosopher Blaise Pascal observed in his Penses that we run heedlessly into the abyss after putting something in front of us to stop us seeing it.
Neil Barofsky, the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, observed something similar in his quarterly report regarding the troubled TARP program:
The government's bailout of financial institutions deemed "too big to fail" has created a risk that the United States could face a worse fiscal meltdown in the future, an independent watchdog assigned to review the program told Congress on Sunday.
The Troubled Assets Relief Program, known as TARP, has not addressed the problems that led to the last crisis and in some case those problems have festered and are a bigger threat than before, warned Neil Barofsky, the special inspector general at the Treasury Department.
"Even if TARP saved our financial system from driving off a cliff back in 2008, absent meaningful reform, we are still driving on the same winding mountain road, but this time in a faster car," Barofsky wrote.
Barofsky wrote the $700 billion financial bailout has encouraged more risk-taking because bank executives, who are still receiving massive bonuses, figure the government will come to the rescue the next time they steer their ships nearly aground. . . .
None of what Barofsky reports is a surprise to regular readers of this blog. It was not rocket science.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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January 8, 2010
A better kind of security theater
The Reason.tv video below puts the Transportation Security Administration's silly security theater policies in perspective, while Bruce Schneier provides another excellent post on the kind of security (including some security theater) that makes much more sense.
Is anyone in Washington, D.C. even listening?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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January 7, 2010
What killed F.D.R.?
This interesting Lawrence Altman/NY Times article examines the theory that that an undiagnosed melanoma contributed to the death of President Franklin Delano Roosevent in 1945.
Of course, regular readers of this blog know that another killer disease -- the dire implications of which were not well-known in 1945 -- was probably the main cause of FDR's death.
But despite the historical curiosity, the most important point to glean from FDR's demise is the importance of continued investment in clinical and scientific research.
We sometimes forget that it was the generation of doctors and researchers who came of age after World War II who embraced the optimistic view of therapeutic intervention in the practice of medicine, which was a fundamental change from the sense of therapeutic powerlessness that was taught to these men by their pre-WWII professors. In short, it has not been that long since medical science has understood that it could cure disease and prolong life.
For example, if FDR's doctors had known in 1945 what specialists in hypertension discovered in the two following decades, then those doctors would never have allowed FDR to be subjected to the stress of the Yalta Conference that doomed Eastern Europe to almost 50 years of totalitarianism and economic deprivation.
Stated simply, earlier discovery of the research into the implications of hypertension could well have changed the course of human history.
In fact, we all tend to under-appreciate the advancements in medicine since World War II. For male babies born in the U.S. in 1960, the life expectancy was about 66.5 years and for female babies a tad over 73 years. By 2005, the live expectancies had increased to over 75 and 80 years respectively. Although medical advances don't account for all of those gains, newly-discovered drugs and medical devices -- as well as enhanced understanding of disease -- have had an enormous impact on improving the quality of life of most Americans.
Thus, as Congress considers reforming the U.S. health care finance system, it is important for citizens to understand that American medical care and research remains the hope of the world. The current health care finance system has generated enormous investment in that medical innovation, which has been a crucial and treasured export of America to the rest of the world.
Let's think hard before radically changing a system that generated the investment that produced those benefits for us and the rest of the world.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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December 29, 2009
Thinking about security theater
Given the Homeland Security Department and Transportation Security Administration's typically over-the-top reaction (see also here) to the Christmas Day attempt to blow up a jet flying into Detroit from Amsterdam, one wonders at what point the government's elaborate "security theater" will finally make flying so miserable that it will choke the life out of the U.S. airline industry? Professor Bainbridge provides a good roundup of the blogosphere's discussion of that and related issues.
The latest incident also reminded me of this prophetic Bruce Schneier post from about a month ago. Schneier does the best job that I've read of explaining why a balance between legitimate and symbolic is helpful in deterring terrorism, but that most of Homeland Security's security theater is utterly misguided, as well as a waste of time and resources.
The entire post is excellent, but two points he makes are particularly important.
First, Schneier observes that the governmental impulse "to do something" in response to an attack is mostly misdirected:
Often, this 'something' is directly related to the details of a recent event: we confiscate liquids, screen shoes, and ban box cutters on aeroplanes. But it's not the target and tactics of the last attack that are important, but the next attack. These measures are only effective if we happen to guess what the next terrorists are planning . . . Terrorists don't care what they blow up and it shouldn't be our goal merely to force the terrorists to make a minor change in their tactics or targets . . .
Even more importantly, Schneier points out that the right kind of security theater -- that is, the best way to counteract the damage that terrorism attempts to inflict upon all of us -- is to act as if we are not scared of it:
The best way to help people feel secure is by acting secure around them. Instead of reacting to terrorism with fear, we -- and our leaders -- need to react with indomitability.
By not overreacting, by not responding to movie-plot threats, and by not becoming defensive, we demonstrate the resilience of our society, in our laws, our culture, our freedoms. There is a difference between indomitability and arrogant 'bring 'em on' ehetoric. There's a difference between accepting the inherent risk that comes with a free and open society, and hyping the threats . . .
Despite fearful rhetoric to the contrary, terrorism is not a transcendent threat. A terrorist attack cannot possibly destroy a country's way of life; it's only our reaction to that attack that can do that kind of damage.
Schneier is spot on. Rather than making air travel increasingly distasteful, Homeland Security and the TSA ought to be encouraging Americans to spit in the terrorists' collective eye by traveling even more by air under reasonably tolerable and legitimate security arrangements.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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December 1, 2009
Kay Bailey's health care finance confusion
What exactly is Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison's political appeal?
She has never seemed to me to have a particularly good grasp of even basic issues. But I never dreamed that she actually supported universal health insurance even while mimicking the GOP party line against such a mandate all these years.
Uwe Reinhardt provides the Senate subcommittee context for Hutchinson's revelation:
[Hutchison] was proposing that women should not have to decide between spending $250 of their own money to get a mammogram or go without it, and that the key here is to get someone else — either public or private health insurance — to pay for it.
I cannot recall a clearer statement of unreserved support for universal and comprehensive health insurance for America and a more straightforward definition of rationing health care.
I am sure that she would extend her remarkable dictum on rationing to cover routine screening for other cancers as well — e.g., to colonoscopies for colon cancer, to P.S.A. tests and biopsies for prostate cancer or to regular examinations for thyroid cancer.
Furthermore, I would assume that her concern for timely medical attention extends even beyond cancer to the prevention of all serious illnesses — e.g., the control of blood pressure for Americans with hypertension through drug therapy or the prevention of diabetes.
In a nutshell, whether she realized it or not, hers is a clear clarion call for comprehensive, universal health insurance in America.
I don't agree with Senator Hutchison's viewpoint regarding universal coverage. However, I understand it and acknowledge that it's not an unreasonable position. I just don't think it's the best way to control the cost of health care services and products.
But why isn't she honest about her true position?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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November 25, 2009
"People get put in jail for importing lobsters"
The disturbing trend of an increasingly powerful federal government criminalizing all sorts of conduct that should not be criminalized has been a frequent topic (see also here) on this blog.
Adam Liptak of the NY Times, who has written extensively about the over-criminalization of American society, reports that a bipartisan group is finally organizing to do something about it:
“It’s a remarkable phenomenon,” said Norman L. Reimer, executive director of the National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers. “The left and the right have bent to the point where they are now in agreement on many issues. In the area of criminal justice, the whole idea of less government, less intrusion, less regulation has taken hold.”
Edwin Meese III, who was known as a fervent supporter of law and order as attorney general in the Reagan administration, now spends much of his time criticizing what he calls the astounding number and vagueness of federal criminal laws.[. . .]
There are, the [Heritage Foundation] says, more than 4,400 criminal offenses in the federal code, many of them lacking a requirement that prosecutors prove traditional kinds of criminal intent.
“It’s a violation of federal law to give a false weather report,” Mr. Meese said.
“People get put in jail for importing lobsters.”
Nice quote from Meese, but Radley Balko points out that his involvement in the movement would mean more if he admitted his past involvement in the problem.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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November 18, 2009
Thinking about financial regulation
Peter Wallison and Steve Randy Waldman have each written a thought-provoking and important analysis of the effect of regulation on the recent financial crisis.
First Wallison:
What caused the financial crisis?
The widely accepted narrative, prominent in the media and pressed by the Obama administration, is that the crisis was caused by deregulation--the "repeal" of the Glass-Steagall Act and the failure to regulate both derivatives and mortgage brokers--which allowed excessive financial innovation, risk taking, and greed among financial players from mortgage brokers to Wall Street bankers.
With this diagnosis, the proposed remedy is more regulation and government control of the financial system, from the over-the-counter derivative markets to mortgage brokers and the compensation of CEOs.
The alternative explanation is that the crisis was caused by the government's own housing policies, which fostered the creation of 25 million subprime and other low-quality mortgages--almost 50 percent of all mortgages in the United States--that are now defaulting at unprecedented rates.
In this narrative, the fact that two-thirds of all these weak mortgages are now held by government agencies, or were produced by government requirements, shows that the demand for these mortgages--and the financial crisis itself--originated in Washington.
The problem for the administration's narrative is that its principal examples do not stand up to analysis: the repeal of a portion of the Glass-Steagall Act did not eliminate the restrictions on banks' securities activities (they were left unchanged), the mortgage brokers were responding to demand created by the government, and, there is no evidence that the failure to regulate credit default swaps (CDS) had any effect in causing or enhancing the financial crisis.
Without a persuasive explanation for the cause of the financial crisis, the administration's regulatory proposals rest on a mythic foundation.
And Waldman:
An enduring truth about financial regulation is this: Given the discretion to do so, financial regulators will always do the wrong thing.
Remember -- it's the incentives, folks.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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November 12, 2009
UPS vs. FedEx
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November 3, 2009
Why is Timothy Geithner still employed?
Last week, we learned that Timothy Geithner, while the head of the New York Fed, let Goldman Sachs and several other large investment banks fleece the Fed in connection with the AIG bailout.
Then, over the weekend, we learn that the Geithner-orchestrated $2.3 billion federal government investment in C.I.T. Group last fall without requiring debtor-in-possession financing protections under chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code is going to result in a total loss of that investment. Why? Because C.I.T. has decided to file bankruptcy now.
Now, in the big scheme of things, $2.3 billion is not all that much money when placed in the context of the federal budget and the American economy. Heck, it's not even close to as much as Geithner left on the table for the investment banks in regard to the AIG bailout.
But Geithner has proven beyond a reasonable doubt that he is in over his head. This bailout stuff is not rocket science.
Why is Geithner still Treasury Secretary?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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October 7, 2009
Fat chance
A couple of interesting health care-related items caught my eye today.
First, I went by my internist's office for my annual physical and noticed that another group of doctors had leased a much larger office across the hall from my doctor's office.
I peaked inside the new doctors' office window and noticed that the reception area was nicely furnished with plush leather sofas and chairs, flat screen TV's, handsome hardwood flooring and tasteful Persian rugs.
The opulence of the office prompted me to find out what kind of doctors were apparently doing so well, so I grabbed one of the doctor's cards from the reception area. It read (not the real name):
"John Smith, M.D., Laparoscopic Obesity Surgery"
Meanwhile, this NY Times article reveals the utterly unsurprising fact that New York City regulations requiring fast food restaurants to post the caloric content of their food did not induce obese consumers from eating less:
A study of New York City’s pioneering law on posting calories in restaurant chains suggests that when it comes to deciding what to order, people’s stomachs are more powerful than their brains.
The study, by several professors at New York University and Yale, tracked customers at four fast-food chains — McDonald’s, Wendy’s, Burger King and Kentucky Fried Chicken — in poor neighborhoods of New York City where there are high rates of obesity.
It found that about half the customers noticed the calorie counts, which were prominently posted on menu boards. About 28 percent of those who noticed them said the information had influenced their ordering, and 9 out of 10 of those said they had made healthier choices as a result.
But when the researchers checked receipts afterward, they found that people had, in fact, ordered slightly more calories than the typical customer had before the labeling law went into effect, in July 2008.
The findings, to be published Tuesday in the online version of the journal Health Affairs come amid the spreading popularity of calorie-counting proposals as a way to improve public health across the country.
“I think it does show us that labels are not enough,” Brian Elbel, an assistant professor at the New York University School of Medicine and the lead author of the study, said in an interview.
"Labels are not enough?" Makes one wonder what regulation Professor Elbel will suggest next -- maybe governmental rationing of fast food?
The argument in favor of these types of absurd governmental intrusions into our lives is that government subsidizes medical insurance, so government should attempt through regulation to decrease obesity, which unfairly heaps a portion of health-care costs relating to obesity on tax-paying citizens who are not obese.
But putting aside for a moment the debatable notion of whether obesity really increases health-care costs all that much, the far more effective regulation to decrease obesity would be to provide a financial incentive for citizens to lose weight. Namely, reduce the governmental subsidy of medical insurance for those who choose to remain obese.
Fat chance of that happening.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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September 6, 2009
Confession and Avoidance
As our own country confronts the difficult issues involved in conducting war, it seems appropriate to recall the closing defense argument in one of the all-time great lawyer movies, Breaker Morant.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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September 3, 2009
An illusion of safety, but at what cost?
The only two airline-security measures that really matter -- fortified cockpit doors and the awareness of the flying public as to what a hijacking can mean -- have been in place virtually since the attacks of September 11, 2001.
Nevertheless, as Patrick Smith explains, the wasteful airport security process that we have allowed the Transportation Security Administration to impose on us continues unabated at a substantial direct cost and an even greater indirect one.
It's bad enough that the TSA's procedures do virtually nothing to discourage serious terrorist threats. But what's even worse is that the incompetent inspection process is really just "security theater" that makes a few naive travelers feel safer about airline travel.
And if all that weren't bad enough, the worst news is that once a governmental "safeguard" such as the TSA procedures are adopted, Congress is not interested in dismantling it even when it's clear that process is ineffective, expensive and obtrusive to citizens.
Smith sums up the dilemma well:
The novelty of the Sept. 11 attacks notwithstanding, the primary threat to commercial planes is, was and shall remain the smuggling aboard of explosives, which is what happened on Pan Am 103 [the Lockerbie explosion twenty years ago whose instigator was recently set free]. The bomb came onboard in a suitcase. The hijack paradigm changed forever on 9/11, rendering the inflight takeover concept unworkable for a terrorist. . . .
Yet whether by virtue of incompetence or willful ignorance, TSA continues to waste untold time and untold millions of dollars on a tedious, zero-tolerance fixation with blades and sharps. This does nothing to make us safer, and in fact draws security resources away from worthy pursuits.
Yes, TSA scans most bags for explosives. Mandates were put in place after 9/11 that have greatly increased the percentage of bags that are run through high-tech detectors, with a goal of screening all of them. But eight years later, screening is still not fully comprehensive. It does not yet include 100 percent of luggage and cargo, and procedures remain inadequate at many overseas airports from which thousands of U.S.-registered jetliners depart each week. Neither is there widespread screening for explosive materials that somebody can carry on his or her person. Good luck getting a hobby knife through a concourse checkpoint, while a pocket full of Semtex is unlikely to be noticed. . . .
There is a level of inherent risk that we simply must learn to accept. But, if we are going to have an airport security apparatus, and if we are going to devote millions of tax dollars to the cause of thwarting attacks, can we please do it smartly and at least improve our odds? Am I the only one who finds it maddening, and even a little scary, that we can't get this right? Is it not a national disgrace that TSA should spend its time confiscating butter knives from uniformed pilots rather than focusing on deadly threats with a long historical precedent?
Where are the voices of protest? As I've said before, the airlines ought to be speaking out and pressuring TSA to revise its policies. I know it puts them in a tough spot, liability-wise -- carriers don't want to be perceived as opposing security, even when that security isn't helpful -- but much of what people despise about flying pertains to the TSA rigmarole.
And passengers, for their part, are apparently content with, or at least resigned to, the idea of security theater in lieu of the real thing. Indeed, rather than demand or expect change, hundreds of thousands of Americans have paid good money for the chance to simply circumvent the hassle of TSA.
Food for thought as Congress considers the creation of an even larger governmental apparatus as the "solution" to problems in the U.S. health care finance system.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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August 31, 2009
Rationing health care in a disaster
If you read one article health care-related this week, make it this extraordinary Sheri Fink/NY Times Magazine article on the impossible choices that the heroic doctors -- including Dr. Anna Pou -- faced at the former Memorial Medical Center in New Orleans in rationing limited medical and evacuation services for their patients during the chaotic aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.
Ms. Fink summarizes the issues raised by the issues that Dr. Pou and her colleagues well:
The story of Memorial Medical Center raises other questions:
Which patients should get a share of limited resources, and who decides?
What does it mean to do the greatest good for the greatest number, and does that end justify all means?
Where is the line between appropriate comfort care and mercy killing?
How, if at all, should doctors and nurses be held accountable for their actions in the most desperate of circumstances, especially when their government fails them?
Interestingly, after the federal, state and local governments largely failed the doctors, other workers and patients at Memorial in the aftermath of Katrina, get a load of how the government forces acted once the decision was made to arrest Dr. Pou:
AT ABOUT 9 P.M. on July 17, 2006 — nearly a year after floodwaters from Katrina swamped Memorial hospital — Pou opened the door of her home to find state and federal agents, clad in body armor and carrying weapons. They told her they had a warrant for her arrest on four counts of principal to second-degree murder.
Pou was wearing rumpled surgical scrubs from several hours of surgery she performed earlier in the day. She knew she was a target of the investigation, but her lawyer thought he had assurance that she could surrender voluntarily. “What about my patients?” she asked reflexively. An agent suggested that Pou call a colleague to take over their care. She was allowed to freshen up and then was read her rights, handcuffed and ultimately driven to the Orleans Parish jail. . . .
Read the entire article. Whose judgment do you trust more? Dr. Pou and her colleagues? Or that of those governmental officials who decided to arrest her?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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August 19, 2009
Robert D. Novak, R.I.P.
Longtime Washington political columnist and television political pundit Robert D. Novak died yesterday, ending a virtually unparalleled 60-year career of reporting on national politics from the nation's capitol. David Broder, Jack Shafer. Tim Carney, Stephen Miller, Jeffrey Bell and the WSJ Editors do a good job of putting this formidable career and fascinating man in perspective.
Inasmuch as I was not particularly interested in Novak's obsessive-style of political reporting in his columns and on television, I didn't appreciate Novak until late in life. That changed when a friend recommended Novak's The Prince of Darkness: 50 Years Reporting in Washington (Crown 2007) (prior post here), which I probably would never have read but for my friend's urging.
Turns out that The Prince of Darkness is a thoroughly enjoyable read, particularly because Novak passes along his reflections on the relationships he had with virtually every major figure in American politics over the past 60 years, which pretty well spans my lifetime. I went from not really being interested in Novak to not being able to put the book down. It remains one of the most unexpectedly delightful books that I've read in the past couple of years.
Characters such as Novak are rare these days, and we are not the better for that.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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August 8, 2009
A good sign
One of the many fascinating aspects of golf is that you can learn much about a person by playing a round of golf with them.
Based on this Time article (h/t Geoff Shackelford), President Obama sounds as if he would fit in quite well with the groups in which I play golf regularly.
That makes me feel better.
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August 3, 2009
Unintended Consequences
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June 20, 2009
The Defense of Freedom
There is no question that President Obama is confronted with a delicate diplomatic situation in regard to the ongoing political unrest in Iran. But it is ironic that the main issue that is bubbling over on the streets of Tehran is the same one that John Quincy Adams addressed in the U.S. Supreme Court in the case of the illegally imported slaves that is wonderfully portrayed in the Stephen Spielberg movie, Amistad. In a magnificent performance, Anthony Hopkins plays the elderly Adams defending the slaves before the Supreme Court. Enjoy.
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June 12, 2009
Not a good week for freedom
First, in the face of a duplicitous government prosecution and a draconian trial penalty, Kevin Howard was forced to plead guilty to a crime that he did not commit.
Then, the executive branch of the federal government, unchecked by feckless legislative and judicial branches, undermined the U.S. Bankruptcy Code by preferring certain Chrysler creditors over others while improperly using the TARP legislation (see also here) -- which was expressly limited to financial institutions -- as a basis to loan billions to Chrysler. Moreover, the government's shots in regard to such matters are being called by a rank rookie.
Finally, the federal government seized $34 million of American citizens' funds without notice or judicial process simply because those citizens enjoy playing poker.
One of the clearest lessons of the 20th century is that large governments have the capacity to cause unspeakable evil. As these injustices unfold with nary a protest from our leaders, is that important lesson already forgotten?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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May 12, 2009
How did it come to this?
That's the question I kept asking myself as I watched former U.S. District Judge Sam Kent be sentenced to 33 months in federal prison yesterday (previous posts here).
I had an early-morning hearing in federal court yesterday and another one in the mid-afternoon. So, instead of returning to my office between hearings, I decided to attend the sentencing hearing for Judge Kent. It's not every day that a federal judge is sentenced to prison.
The first hour or so of the hearing was stupefying as prosecutors and Kent defense attorney Dick DeGuerin argued over objections to the government's pre-sentencing report. The main reason for the boredom was that, for the most part, no one except the lawyers in involved in the case and U.S. District Judge Roger Vinson knew what they were talking about. That vacuum of information was a direct result of Judge Vinson's dubious decision to keep a substantial amount of the information about the charges against Kent under seal and away from public scrutiny.
Judge Vinson's decision in that regard might have been somewhat defensible had the two victims of Kent's sexual assaults requested secrecy to preserve what little privacy they could salvage from this ordeal. But neither of the victims requested such treatment, and my sense is that Kent didn't want it, either.
So, Judge Vinson decided to conduct this case largely outside the public eye for his own reasons. In my 30 years of practicing law, I have never seen the volume of information in a case placed under seal as was done in this case.
In sentencing Kent, Judge Vinson claimed that he was upholding the justice system by showing that even a powerful judge is not above the law. Unfortunately, he undermined that same system by preventing the public from learning the details of the accusations against Kent and Kent's responses to those allegations.
Although the first part of the hearing could have induced a snooze, the pace picked up dramatically when the two victims of Kent's assaults made their way to the podium to make their victim statements to the court (one of the victim's statements is here, courtesy of the Houston Chronicle). Both victims were extremely impressive in their presentations, describing the emotional and family carnage that Kent's assaults and abuse of power caused. We also learned tidbits of information that likely would have been already been revealed had Judge Vinson not maintained such tight control over information:
The case manager reported Kent's assaults to her supervisor, who did not take appropriate steps to report it to higher authorities out of fear for her job;
A "culture of fear" existed among employees at the Galveston federal courthouse as a result of Kent's manipulative behavior and frequent drunkenness; and
Kent is estranged from much of his family.
There was a good bit of discussion from the victims and the lawyers regarding Kent's alcoholism and his "serious" psychological issues, for which Judge Vinson ordered him to continue treatment. Also, Kent has been rendered virtually insolvent from his funding of the cost of defense of the case.
For his part, Kent did a good job in his statement to the court, apologizing to his accusers, his staff, his family, other judges and "the system." He promised Judge Vinson that he would continue to rehabilitate himself regardless of the sentence. My sense was that Kent was sincere.
I do not know Kent personally. I handled several hearings in his court over the years and never had a problem with him.
However, I know plenty of lawyers who found Kent insufferable and rude (see also here), and I heard the rumors about his alleged favoritism of certain Galveston lawyers, particularly in admiralty cases. In 2001, the Chief Judge of the Southern District of Texas took the unprecedented step of reassigning 85 cases away from Kent that were being handled by one of Kent's best friends.
And now it appears that Kent was drinking heavily for much of the past decade and that he was frequently intoxicated while at the courthouse. You have to wonder whether concerns about Kent's behavior impacted out-of-town parties' decisions in cases such as this one?
So, I circle back to the question I asked at the beginning of this post -- how did the judicial career of Sam Kent come to this sordid and sad ending?
Where were Kent's "friends" who knew about his excessive drinking and other personal problems, and were in a position to intervene and help him before it was too late?
What are we to make of the federal government's human resources apparatus that an entire federal courthouse could have been placed under a culture of fear by the abusive behavior of one man?
And doesn't the Fifth Circuit Judicial Council have some explaining to do on why it issued its agreed order of public reprimand of Kent without interviewing either of the victims during the council's investigation?
Finally what are we to conclude about our justice system that the Houston Chronicle -- which, along with its coverage of Hurricane Ike, should have been won a Pulitzer Prize for its reporting on the Kent case -- provides much more information to the public about the crimes of an abusive judge than the prosecution of that judge?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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May 1, 2009
American Violet
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April 20, 2009
Clear Thinking to begin the week
Former Cardinals and Pirates outfielder Andy Van Slyke from this recent interview ($) in Baseball Prospectus:
"Well, [former Astros pitcher] Mike Scott, to me, is the best pitcher to ever pitch in the big leagues. I went 1-for-38 against him. . . . Mike Scott, when he was at the apex of his career, was actually cheating very well. When he threw that forkball, and he scuffed it all up... he threw 97-98 mph, and then he'd throw a forkball that was in the 90s and I just couldn't hit him."
Q: Were there a lot of guys "cheating very well" in your era?
"I think there was more of it going on back then than there is today. You don't really see guys scuffing balls—you don't see guys with sandpaper—but it was very prevalent when I came to the big leagues. The guys... everybody knew who was doing it. It was just hard to catch them."
Arnold Kling on an upcoming debate that he will be having with Robert Kuttner regarding health care finance:
The debate should be about how the cost-benefit trade-offs and rationing will take place. I will argue that most health care spending should be paid for out of pocket, with insurance reimbursement only for very large expenses over a multi-year period. With consumers paying out of pocket, they will take price into account in making their choices, and they will self-ration. The alternative is to have government officials make the choices about what treatments people are to obtain. I do not think that this is a one-sided debate, in which one position is clearly better than the other. But I hope that Kuttner and I can have this debate, rather than go off into red herrings like drug company profits.
The Financial Times' Clive Cook chimes in on America's intractable but nonsensical drug prohibition policy ($) (other posts on drug prohibition are here):
How much misery can a policy cause before it is acknowledged as a failure and reversed?
The US “war on drugs” suggests there is no upper limit. The country’s implacable blend of prohibition and punitive criminal justice is wrong-headed in every way: immoral in principle, since it prosecutes victimless crimes, and in practice a disaster of remarkable proportions. Yet for a US politician to suggest wholesale reform of this brainless regime is still seen as an act of reckless self-harm. [. . .]
Strict enforcement, . . . has reduced drug use only modestly – supposing for the moment that this is even a legitimate objective. The collateral damage is of a different order altogether. Violence related to drug crimes has surged in Mexico and in US cities close to the border, giving rise to renewed interest in the topic. . . . [. . .]
Few policies manage to fail so comprehensively, and what makes it all the odder is that the US has seen it all before. Everybody understands that alcohol prohibition in the 1920s suffered from many of the same pathologies – albeit on a smaller scale – and was eventually abandoned. [. . .]
Is an outbreak of common sense on this subject likely? Unfortunately, no. Only the most daring politicians seem willing to think about it seriously. . . . [. . .]
Somebody in the White House should take a look. This national calamity is no laughing matter.
And finally, Mark Steyn notes the insidious nature of encroaching government regulation over citizens:
The proper response of free men to the trivial but degrading impositions of the state is to answer as [gun owner] Pierre Lemieux did. But it requires a kind of 24/7 tenacity few can muster - and the machinery of bureaucracy barely pauses to scoff: In an age of mass communication and computer records, the screen blips for the merest nano-second, and your gun rights disappear. The remorseless, incremental annexation of "individual existence" by technologically all-pervasive micro-regulation is a profound threat to free peoples. But do we have the will to resist it?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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April 11, 2009
Reason.tv on Tax Time
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April 3, 2009
The Tyranny of the Busybodies
"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.”
- C. S. Lewis, God in the Dock
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April 1, 2009
The Wavering Rule of Law
So, because of prosecutorial misconduct, the Justice Department decides to move for dismissal of the political corruption case against former Alaska senator Ted Stevens (previous posts here and here).
Meanwhile, Jeff Skilling, who created billions of dollars in wealth and thousands of jobs by revolutionizing risk management of natural gas prices for producers and industrial consumers, sits in a Colorado prison cell under the weight of a barbaric 24-year prison sentence. Skilling's conviction involved even more egregious prosecutorial misconduct than the Stevens case. The criminal case against Skilling was materially weaker than the case against Stevens, too.
It is a sad reflection of the current state of American rule of law that the DOJ readily concedes prosecutorial misconduct against an arguably corrupt legislator, but ignores it in a shaky case against a businessperson who created many jobs and great wealth.
And how bizarre is it that America's primary business newspaper rightly decries the government's abuse of Stevens' due process rights but continues to ignore even worse abuses with regard to a creative and productive businessperson?
Update: Larry Ribstein chimes in, too.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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The Postrel Health Care Finance Articles
Clear Thinkers favorite Virginia Postrel (previous posts here) is well-known in health care finance circles for her authorship of a reasoned critique of one-payor, centralized health care plans back in the 1990's. She now writes for The Atlantic.
Over the past year or so, Virginia has been experiencing serious health care issues, so she has recently penned two extraordinary articles in The Atlantic (here and here) chronicling her personal experience with America's Byzantine health care finance system. Both articles are must-reads for anyone interested in these important issues, but here are a couple of snippets from the second article that are representative of the wisdom that Virginia provides:
Mr. Daily [a critic] shares a common belief, expressed less dramatically in other letters, that there is somewhere a pot of money dedicated to “health care” which “society” divides between winners and losers. In the United States, at least, there is no health care pot, any more than there is a pot for housing or education or magazine subscriptions. There is simply an economy, which includes health care among other goods, and the amount we spend on health care grows out of the largely decentralized decisions made by individuals and organizations. As productivity increases and prices drop in some areas—food, clothes, entertainment—we can afford to spend more on health care (even without overall economic growth or increased health-care efficiency). [. . .]
. . . We do not currently treat health care as a right. That we don’t is, in fact, what most letter writers are objecting to. Neither do we regard it exactly as a privilege, to be allocated to the worthy few or even to be limited to those who can afford to pay for it, directly or indirectly. Rather, it is a good, produced and purchased in a complex marketplace through a combination of individual, organizational, and political decisions.
Even this formulation is misleading, however. Health care isn’t a single good, nor, like food, is it easily defined in terms of a minimum to sustain life. Studying other countries’ supposedly universal systems only demonstrates how fraught the concept of “health care” is: one bundle of services in British Columbia and a less-generous one in Nova Scotia, one in England and another in Scotland, one in New Zealand before the election and another afterwards. Arguably the U.S. already has universal care, in the sense that everyone can get some care—if only from an emergency room—for some things, and that citizens (a critical word in this context) without money are covered by Medicaid.
The real issue is how you define “health care.” What gets included is a matter not only of medicine and economics but of culture and politics.
What limitations on health care are Americans willing to accept in return for universal coverage? That is one of the core issues that those who are currently crafting health care finance reform are assiduously avoiding. But true reform will never occur without addressing that issue.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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March 30, 2009
Henderson on the Nature of Government
David Henderson makes an insightful point about the Ryan Moats/Robert Powell run-in in Dallas last week in which Powell (the policeman) exhibited an utter lack of common sense, much less prosecutorial discretion (and this incident is apparently not the first time that Powell has exhibited this type of behavior):
So what is the essence? The issue of control. Read the abridged transcript of the interaction or, better yet, watch the whole 20-minute video. What comes out loud and clear is that the policeman was upset because the driver, Ryan Moats, tried passionately to tell him the nature of the emergency, whereas what Robert Powell saw as being primary was that Moats wait patiently while Powell wrote him a ticket. Even once a nurse came out from the hospital and assured the policeman that Moats's mother-in-law was dying, Powell, writing the ticket, said, "I'm almost done." Must get that ticket written no matter why Moats jumped a red light. [. . .]
This is the nature of government whether the government employees are policemen with guns on their sides or sometimes in their hands or are teachers in government-financed schools. The whole Powell-Moats incident reminds me of a passage from Steven E. Landsburg's book, Fair Play: What Your Child Can Teach You About Economics, Values, and the Meaning of Life. Landsburg tells of the propaganda his daughter Cayley's teachers subjected her to about the importance of not letting the water run when she brushed her teeth. Landsburg writes:
[. . .]
Where is the pattern, then? What general rule compels us to conserve water but not to conserve on resources devoted to education? The blunt truth is that there is no pattern, and the general rule is simply this: Only the teacher can tell you which resources should be conserved. The whole exercise is not about toothbrushing; it is about authority.
The Moats-Powell incident is a micro example of the government's proclivity to exert power arbitrarily. That essential nature is being largely ignored as the Obama Administration runs headlong into seeking even greater governmental regulation over broad sectors of the economy.
Given that one of the clearest lessons of the 20th century is the capacity of large government to cause unspeakable evil, any effort to centralize more power in the federal government should be subject to the most careful scrutiny and not the type of superficial posturing that Congress has exhibited to date.
Count me as not confident that Congress will oblige.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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March 28, 2009
Our Congress at work
I swear, you can't make this stuff up.
As regular readers of this blog know, I thought the federal bailout of AIG and various other Wall Street firms was a bad idea from the start because it prevented our bankruptcy system from allocating the risk of loss among the creditors of the financially-troubled firms.
Nevertheless, after various forces stoked a climate of fear, Congress approved broad bailout legislation even though it was clear at the time that few of the legislators understood what they were approving.
Not surprisingly, various large creditors of the financially-troubled firms did very well for themselves under the bailout legislation. Can't blame them for protecting their shareholders' interests, now can you?
So now, confronted with the fact that the bailout primarily benefited these large institutional creditors, various members of Congress and New York AG ("Attorney General" or "Aspiring Governor," take your pick) Andrew Cuomo are starting investigations into why AIG did precisely what it was supposed to do -- i.e., pay its bills -- with the bailout funds.
A little late, don't you think?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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March 26, 2009
Losing the grip on AIG
The business blogosphere was abuzz yesterday over publication of AIG executive Jake DeSantis' remarkable resignation letter to AIG CEO, Ed Liddy.
But what was even more remarkable was the reaction of some commentators that makes abundantly clear that common sense often evaporates in the face of big money.
DeSantis is a longtime AIG executive who worked for one of AIG's profitable units. When AIG was going down the tubes last year because of losses incurred in the company's untethered CDS trading unit, DeSantis agreed to stay on at a nominal salary and continue making profits in his unit in return for a substantial, but not over-market, bonus.
Such arrangements are not unusual for financially-troubled companies and might very well have been arranged even had AIG gone into a chapter 11 reorganization rather than become the subject of an ill-advised government bailout. In short, it's a good thing for creditors of AIG -- including now U.S. taxpayers -- that the company retain people such as DeSantis who might make the company profitable and valuable again.
Or course, we all know what happened when AIG disclosed publicly that it had made the bonus payments to DeSantis and other AIG executives. They were demonized in a manner that has not been seen since Enron.
DeSantis' resignation letter lays this all out and notes the indisputable hypocrisy of AIG executives and government officials who knew about these compensation arrangements, but who flamed the public uproar rather than provide the quite simple and reasonable explanation for the bonuses.
I mean really. Who could argue that DeSantis and the other similarly-situated AIG executives were treated in an abominable manner?
Well, up to the plate steps one Brian Montopoli, a CBSNews.com political reporter, who establishes beyond any doubt that he needs to remain a political, rather than business, reporter:
Mr. DeSantis is not a plumber. He is a Wall Street executive who has made millions of dollars. And it’s safe to assume that most plumbers don’t believe he has gotten a bad deal, AIG scandal notwithstanding.
In essence, Montopoli reasons that other people are working just as hard as DeSantis and they would gladly trade places with him if they could have made as much scratch as he has earned over the years. Given that DeSantis made a lot of money while he was at AIG, Montopoli thinks he is "tone deaf" for pointing out the injustice of being unfairly demonized and cheated out of the compensation that was promised to him in return for staying on at AIG under extremely difficult circumstances.
In short, those evil capitalist roaders deserve most of our scorn and they should just shut the hell up.
In the face of such addled reasoning, it's hard to know where to begin. But let's start by pointing out that Montopoli ignores the rather important fact that no one has stopped him or anyone else from attempting to compete with DeSantis in his area of business and make just as much money as he has over the years. The reality is that there are relatively few people who do what DeSantis does well. That's why he commands a larger salary than most of us.
The fact that DeSantis makes more money than we do doesn't mean that it's OK to screw him out of his compensation or that he shouldn't be heard to set the record straight when such an injustice takes place.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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February 23, 2009
The Journal's curious case of myopia
Bully for the Wall Street Journal for running this editorial last week decrying the prosecutorial misconduct of the Justice Department in obtaining the conviction of former Alaska Senator Ted Stevens on ethics charges (Mike over at the Crime and Federalism blog has posted a copy of the defense motion describing the prosecutorial misconduct here).
However, where was the nation's leading business newspaper when even more egregious prosecutorial misconduct was involved in criminal cases that the DOJ brought in regard to Enron, particularly the prosecution of Jeff Skilling?
Could it be that the Journal was invested in the DOJ's myth regarding Enron?
How ironic that the WSJ condemns prosecutorial misconduct with regard to the case against a politician, but largely ignores it in cases against businesspeople.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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February 21, 2009
Quotes of the Week
"The market wants Churchill and they keep tossing it Chamberlains."
John Nash (via David Henderson) on his progress out of mental illness in the late 1980's:
"Then gradually I began to intellectually reject some of the delusionally influenced lines of thinking which had been characteristic of my orientation. This began, most recognizably, with the rejection of politically-oriented thinking as essentially a hopeless waste of intellectual effort."
"In reality, no one spends someone else's money better than they spend their own. The charade of the current stimulus package, chockablock with earmarks to favored pet constituencies and virtually devoid of national policy considerations, is the logical consequence of Keynesianism in action. It is about politics and power, not sound economics, and I believe that the American people will reject it."
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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February 14, 2009
An unintended consequence of drug prohibition
While this post from earlier in the week highlighted the historical backdrop to the United States' failed drug prohibition policy, this Telegraph.co.uk article passes along an unintended consequence of that policy that should put to rest any concerns about reconsidering it:
The Home Office has admitted that the street price of both cocaine and heroin has fallen by nearly half in the last ten years, making the most dangerous illegal drugs cheaper than they have ever been.
That means a line of cocaine can cost as little as £1, with an average price per line of between £2 and £4.
The average price of a pint of lager is around £2.75, although some pub chains have reacted to the credit crunch by cutting the price of a pint as low as 99p. A glass of wine typically costs £3.50. . . .
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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February 11, 2009
Interesting historical perspectives
Cato Unbound points us to a couple of articles that provide insightful observations on two of the crises that are swirling around us these days.
First, William Niskanen cautions us regarding the fear-mongering that supporters of the Obama Administration's fiscal stimulus plan are using to justify emergency passage of the plan:
This is the fifth time in my adult life that the president has asked for or asserted unprecedented authority on an expedited basis with little or no congressional review. Each of the prior occasions turned out to be a disaster. [. . .]
The only coherence in this plan is political, not whether it is an effective or efficient method to stimulate the economy. . . . Again, as in the four prior episodes, there is every reason not to rush to approve a program of such magnitude.
The primary reason for the current financial crisis is that many banks cannot evaluate their own solvency or that of their current or potential counter-parties, primarily because of the difficulty of valuing mortgage-backed securities and other complex derivatives, and neither TARP nor the fiscal stimulus plan addresses this problem.
Our political system, unfortunately, is strongly biased to try to protect people against the effects of a crisis without addressing the causes of the crisis. To Congress: Slow down. Make sure you understand the causes of the financial crisis and the potential solutions before you burden your children and your grandchildren with another trillion dollars of federal debt.
Your present course is best described as fiscal child abuse.
Meanwhile, as Texans continue to watch nervously to the south as the Mexican government teeters on the brink of losing control of large sectors of the country to drug kingpins, Dale Gieringer reminds us that the main cause of this crisis -- U.S. drug prohibition -- is the result of dubious public policy:
This week marks the centennial of a fateful landmark in U.S. history, the nation's first drug prohibition law. On February 9, 1909, Congress passed the Opium Exclusion Act, barring the importation of opium for smoking as of April 1. Thus began a hundred-year crusade that has unleashed unprecedented crime, violence and corruption around the world —a war with no victory in sight.
Long accustomed to federal drug control, most Americans are unaware that there was once a time when people were free to buy any drug, including opium, cocaine, and cannabis, at the pharmacy. In that bygone era, drug-related crime and violence were largely unknown, and drug use was not a major public concern. [. . .]
Early 20th-century Americans would be astounded to see what a problem drugs have become since the establishment of drug prohibition. Every year, two million Americans are arrested and 400,000 imprisoned for drug offenses that did not exist in their time. Drug laws are now the number-one source of crime in the U.S., with one-half of the entire adult population having violated them.
Long gone are the days when Americans were free to keep opium in their closet; today, even gravely suffering patients are denied pain-killing narcotics by their doctors out of fear of federal prosecution. While smoking opium has faded from the scene, the country is now rife with more potent and lethal narcotics, which are widely sold on the illegal market.
Seen in retrospect, drug prohibition ranks as one of the great man-made disasters of the 20th century. . . .
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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February 5, 2009
Thinking about Cheney's remarks
Many Americans were repulsed by the methods former Vice-President Dick Cheney used to consolidate and exercise war powers in the Executive Branch during the administration of George W. Bush.
Unfortunately, that controversy clouds many people's judgment on Cheney's many noteworthy accomplishments during his 30-year career in public service. He has been an extraordinary public servant.
My sense is that Cheney based his aggressive exercise of war powers during the Bush Administration in large part on classified information regarding the risk of more attacks on U.S. citizens after the attacks of September 11, 2001, a point that Barton Gellman notes in his seminal but generally critical book on the Cheney vice-presidency, Angler: The Cheney Vice-Presidency (Penguin 2008).
Cheney's public comments from earlier this week appear to be consistent with my impression regarding his assessment of the risk of further attacks.
Given that, when you have 25 minutes or so, take the time to watch the video below of Irwin Redlener's recent TED lecture on how the nature of a nuclear attack threat on the United States has changed, but our generally deficient approach to preparing for one has not.
As Dick Cheney says, fighting those who would levy such an attack on the U.S. is “a tough, mean, dirty, nasty business.”
Here's hoping that the Obama Administration is up to the task.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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January 25, 2009
Can Mayor White pull off another "win-win" deal?
Although the developers of the proposed Ashby high-rise condominium project didn't know it at the time, Houston Mayor Bill White did the developers a huge favor by putting up roadblocks to that project.
Can you imagine trying to peddle those condos in the current real estate market? Mayor White's blocking of the condos ended being a classic "win-win" deal.
Accordingly, I wonder if Mayor White might be inclined to do the same thing in regard to Houston's proposed soccer stadium?
Things aren't looking too rosy for MLS soccer these days:
Major League Soccer is not quite ready to carry its own night on TV.
After two years of anemic ratings that started low and finished lower, ESPN executives decided to cancel the league’s regular Thursday night telecast on ESPN2 this season. . . .
“We didn’t see the kind of ratings climb we’d like to, so we’re trying something different,” said Scott Guglielmino, ESPN vice president of programming.
The decision to cancel the regular Thursday night game marks a stunning turnaround for a league that two years ago believed it was creating destination programming that would increase interest in MLS. But even the 2007 arrival of David Beckham couldn’t boost MLS ratings.
MLS games averaged a 0.2 rating and 289,000 viewers on ESPN2 in 2007. Those numbers dropped to 0.2/253,000 viewers the following year. Its highest rating during that period was Beckham’s second regular-season game in August 2007 that earned a 0.6/658,000 households.
Canceling “MLS Primetime Thursday” is a tacit admission that MLS is not strong enough to anchor a regular prime-time slot on its own. ESPN is entering the third year of an eight-year rights deal that pays MLS $8 million annually.
So, MLS franchises are being downgraded by the most important sports programming network in the nation, which can't be good for the value of those teams. The attendance at MLS games is poor, at least outside Houston and a couple of other cities. And the perception in sophisticated soccer circles is that the MLS is decidedly minor-league.
Meanwhile, Mayor White has already had Houstonians invest $20 million or so in buying downtown property at a premium price for the proposed soccer stadium, despite the fact that the city already owned nearby property that would have been perfectly fine for such a stadium. Moreover, the city will be on the hook for tens of millions of dollars more in infrastructure improvements if the Dynamo owners somehow cobble together their private financing for the stadium.
Now, it's looking as if the Dynamo may not even have a viable league to play in by the time the proposed soccer stadium is completed in a couple of years.
Pull the plug on the soccer stadium, Mayor. It will be another "win-win" deal.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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January 24, 2009
Oral history of the Bush White House
When you have a spare hour or so, check out this "Oral History of the Bush White House" by Cullen Murphy, Todd Purdum and Philippe Sands in the current issue of Vanity Fair.
The format of the article is a timeline recreating of the last eight years with participants' observations on many of the major moments and a number of minor ones, which often end up being as instructive as the reactions to the major ones.
The entire article is a must-read, but the following observations of Kenneth Adelman, a member of former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s advisory Defense Policy Board, will give you a flavor.
The context of Adelman's comments are a confrontation that he had with the Defense Secretary several days after Rumsfeld had dismissed the significance of the breakdown of civil order in Iraq by publicly observing that "stuff happens":
So he says, It might be best if you got off the Defense Policy Board. You’re very negative. I said, I am negative, Don. You’re absolutely right. I’m not negative about our friendship. But I think your decisions have been abysmal when it really counted.
Start out with, you know, when you stood up there and said things—“Stuff happens.” I said, That’s your entry in Bartlett’s. The only thing people will remember about you is “Stuff happens.” I mean, how could you say that? “This is what free people do.” This is not what free people do. This is what barbarians do. And I said, Do you realize what the looting did to us? It legitimized the idea that liberation comes with chaos rather than with freedom and a better life. And it demystified the potency of American forces. Plus, destroying, what, 30 percent of the infrastructure.
I said, You have 140,000 troops there, and they didn’t do jack shit. I said, There was no order to stop the looting. And he says, There was an order. I said, Well, did you give the order? He says, I didn’t give the order, but someone around here gave the order. I said, Who gave the order?
So he takes out his yellow pad of paper and he writes down—he says, I’m going to tell you. I’ll get back to you and tell you. And I said, I’d like to know who gave the order, and write down the second question on your yellow pad there. Tell me why 140,000 U.S. troops in Iraq disobeyed the order. Write that down, too.
And so that was not a successful conversation.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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December 24, 2008
Playing fair
So, now Alaska Senator Ted Stevens is finding out that some federal prosecutors do not play fair (H/T Doug Berman). Of course, we've known that for quite some time down here in Houston.
Oh well, at least the mainstream media has strong incentives to expose such abuses in the case of a major political figure.
But do the same media incentives exist in the prosecution of a wealthy and unpopular businessperson?
What if the reporter most responsible for such a prosecution is, might we say, not particularly motivated to expose prosecutorial abuses? Or what if the reporter for the nation's most prominent business newspaper is so conflicted that he ignores the abuses even when they are playing out in front of him?
And the foregoing doesn't even consider what we should think when one of those reporters in another case actively attempts to help investors score on their positions at the expense of a company and its chief executives.
It's hard enough to maintain innocence against the overwhelming resources of the federal government when the prosecution plays fair. It's next to impossible to do so when it doesn't. What chance is there if the people responsible for exposing prosecutorial abuse have incentives that override that responsibility?
Ask Jeff Skilling.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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December 16, 2008
Blago blogging
The criminal troubles of an Illinois governor would not normally be one of this blog's topics, but this Michael Barone op-ed on the Rod Blagojevich affair is just too good not to pass along.
Barone is well-versed in the complicated web of influences that define Chicago politics, so he is right in his element explaining Blagojevich to other pundits not so steeped in Chicagoland:
The answer, . . . is that [Blagojevich is] not crazy, but simply stupid, hugely stupid. I've long since come to the conclusion that Rod Blagojevich is clearly the stupidest governor in all of our 50 states, and he may be the stupidest governor I've had occasion to write about in the four decades when I've been co-author of The Almanac of American Politics. And a stupid man (or woman) in high political office can be very dangerous to all concerned. I have long said that as a political operative I would prefer a smart opponent to a stupid opponent. If you're pretty smart yourself, you should be able to figure out what another pretty smart person will do. But whether you're smart or stupid, it's hard to figure out what a stupid person will do. That's even more true when the stupid politician is your political ally. Stupid people do all sorts of things that are against their own interests. Like tell the press on Monday that you wouldn't mind being taped, even when (as we learned on Tuesday) that you've been saying all kinds of things that you should have known could easily send you to the slammer.
Meanwhile, Joe Queenan compares Blago to Nero, and then wonders what we have come to when a governor of a big state can shake down Bank of America and nobody really notices:
The idea that the governor of a state as prosperous and important and sophisticated and upscale as Illinois would make this kind of threat is terrifying. Even more terrifying is that Bank of America saw no alternative but to give in. Yet even more terrifying is that nobody outside Chicago seems to have gotten terribly worked up about the situation, riveted as they are on the governor's more theatrical transgressions. But peddling a Senate seat or using scare tactics to shake down a newspaper are nowhere near so serious a menace to society as letting the government arbitrarily intervene in financial transactions between banks and creditors. A crooked governor we can all handle. But a governor who capriciously decides which commercial enterprises a bank must finance and which it can ignore is a scary proposition indeed.
Rome wasn't built in a day. But get the wrong politician in office, and you can burn it in a day.
Meanwhile, Patrick Fitzgerald, a prosecutor who is quite capable of pursuing a weak case that nevertheless puts him in the center of the media spotlight, ought to shut up about the Blagojevich case, says Victoria Toensing:
In the Dec. 9 press conference regarding the federal corruption charges against Gov. Blagojevich and his chief of staff, Mr. Fitzgerald violated the ethical requirement of the Justice Department guidelines that prior to trial a "prosecutor shall refrain from making extrajudicial comments that pose a serious and imminent threat of heightening public condemnation of the accused." The prosecutor is permitted to "inform the public of the nature and extent" of the charges. In the vernacular of all of us who practice criminal law, that means the prosecutor may not go "beyond the four corners" -- the specific facts -- in the complaint or indictment. He may also provide any other public-record information, the status of the case, the names of investigators, and request assistance. But he is not permitted to make the kind of inflammatory statements Mr. Fitzgerald made during his media appearance. [. . .]
Throughout the press conference about Gov. Blagojevich, Mr. Fitzgerald talked beyond the four corners of the complaint. He repeatedly characterized the conduct as "appalling." He opined that the governor "has taken us to a new low," while going on a "political corruption crime spree."
Of course, we know all about federal prosecutors violating such ethical duties down here in Houston.
Finally, the always insightful Larry Ribstein puts the Blagojevich affair in proper perspective:
Let's keep that in mind before we hand over more regulatory power to politicians because we think we can trust them more than the market participants who would be regulated.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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December 11, 2008
Would you buy a car from Congress?
The W$J's Holman Jenkins continues what should be Pulitzer Prize-winning commentary on the problems of the U.S. auto industry:
None of [Congress' complicity in the auto industry's problem] was mentioned at four days of congressional bailout hearings, because Detroit knows better than to suggest Congress has a role in the industry's problem. . .
. . . The tragedy of GM and Ford is that, inside each, are perfectly viable businesses, albeit that have been slowly murdered over 30 years by CAFE. Both have decent global operations. At home, both have successful, profitable businesses selling pickups, SUVs and other larger vehicles to willing consumers, despite having to pay high UAW wages.
All this is dragged down by federal fuel-economy mandates that require them to lose tens of billions making small cars Americans don't want in high-cost UAW factories. Understand something: Ford and GM in Europe successfully sell cars that are small but not cheap. Europeans are willing to pay top dollar for a refined small car that gets excellent mileage, because they face gasoline prices as high as $9. Americans are not Europeans. In the U.S., except during bouts of high gas prices or in the grip of a Prius fad, the small cars that American consumers buy aren't bought for high mileage, but for low sticker prices. And the Big Three, with their high labor costs, cannot deliver as much value in a cheap car as the transplants can.
Under a law of politics, such truths were unmentionable in last week's televised circus because legislators are unwilling to do anything about them. They won't repeal CAFE because they fear the greens. They won't repeal CAFE's "two fleets" rule (which effectively requires the Big Three to make small cars in domestic factories) because they fear the UAW. They won't hike gas prices because they fear voters. [. . .]
We hate to admit it, but the only good idea from the bailout debate is the proposal for a new "auto czar." Along with disposing of Chrysler and downsizing Ford and GM, his job should be to confront Congress with its own policy cowardice and failure. If saving gasoline and Detroit are both worthy goals, let's ditch CAFE and institute a gasoline tax to make consumers value the cars government is forcing auto makers to build. If Congress doesn't have the tummy for that, at least ditch the "two fleets" rule so Detroit can import small cars to meet the mandate.
Alas, Barack Obama's vaunted "change" apparently doesn't include spending the political capital to make Congress acknowledge the failure of CAFE. If he can't do better than throw taxpayer money at a dismal policy disaster like our fuel-economy regulations (and so far he seems to be joining Congress in pretending it's all Detroit's fault), we might as well give up on his presidency along with any hope of progress on the nation's other unresolved dilemmas.
His campaign never really answered the question of whether he was Chance the Gardener or Abraham Lincoln. We might as well find out now.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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December 6, 2008
Frost/Nixon looks interesting
Rick Perlstein, author of Nixonland: The Rise of a President and the Fracturing of America (Scribner 2008), provides more insight into Nixon's fascinating relationship with television.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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November 28, 2008
Thoughts on the attacks in Mumbai
Remember -- overcoming fascists of all stripes takes a fighting spirit.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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November 19, 2008
Progress on the bailout front?
So, less than two months after this previous post noted that chapter 11 reorganizations with possible government financing of reorganization plans were the best tools to shake out the current financial crisis, even the NY Times (here and here) is promoting that approach for restructuring the Big Three automobile companies.
I guess that's a sign of real progress.
Funny how the way we typically handle such things in the civil justice system usually is the most efficient solution to the problems.
It sure beats having this bunch fumble around looking for an alternative solution.
By the way, I've mentioned this before, but it merits passing along again. One of the best ways to keep up on developments in regard to the current financial crisis is to check in frequently on the following sites: Clusterstock, Dealbreaker, and Felix Salmon.
The blogosphere rules!
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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November 18, 2008
Thinking about markets
Now that folks have had at least a bit of time to reflect on the financial crisis on Wall Street, some good historical perspectives are starting to pop up, such as this Niall Ferguson Vanity Fair piece (previous posts on other Ferguson works are here). Toward the end, Ferguson makes an excellent point about market economies that is not widely understood:
The modern financial system is the product of centuries of economic evolution. Banks transformed money from metal coins into accounts, allowing ever larger aggregations of borrowing and lending. From the Renaissance on, government bonds introduced the securitization of streams of interest payments. From the 17th century on, equity in corporations could be bought and sold in public stock markets. From the 18th century on, central banks slowly learned how to moderate or exacerbate the business cycle. From the 19th century on, insurance was supplemented by futures, the first derivatives. And from the 20th century on, households were encouraged by government to skew their portfolios in favor of real estate.
Economies that combined all these institutional innovations performed better over the long run than those that did not, because financial intermediation generally permits a more efficient allocation of resources than, say, feudalism or central planning. For this reason, it is not wholly surprising that the Western financial model tended to spread around the world, first in the guise of imperialism, then in the guise of globalization.
Yet money’s ascent has not been, and can never be, a smooth one. On the contrary, financial history is a roller-coaster ride of ups and downs, bubbles and busts, manias and panics, shocks and crashes. The excesses of the Age of Leverage—the deluge of paper money, the asset-price inflation, the explosion of consumer and bank debt, and the hypertrophic growth of derivatives—were bound sooner or later to produce a really big crisis.
In short, markets are imperfect and sometimes quite messy. But they have stood the test of time in proving more efficient than the alternatives. Don't give up on them just yet.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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November 15, 2008
The Obama choices
Jan Greenburg sizes up the most likely chances that Obama will have to nominate justices to the U.S. Supreme Court.
The bottom line -- despite the advanced age of several of the justices, perhaps not as many as one would think.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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November 11, 2008
A stubbornly bad system
So, now that the Democrats have swept in a slate of judges to replace many longstanding GOP state district judges in Houston, the Chronicle runs an article about how some Republicans are calling for an alternative system for appointing judges.
Not surprisingly, the Democrats are not as enthusiastic, at least right now.
Of course, while the Republican judges have been controlling the courthouse over most of the past two decades, they weren't interested in rocking the boat to change the system, either.
However, the problem remains that, partisanship aside, doing nothing about the current Texas system of electing judges simply perpetuates a very bad system.
Thankfully, as Don Cruse reports, Chief Justice Wallace Jefferson of the Texas Supreme Court is showing leadership on the issue, just as the late John Hill and Tom Phillips did before him during their stints as Chief Justice.
But the potential for corruption in the Texas judicial election system perhaps best summed up by the following joke:
Taking his seat in his chambers, the judge faced the opposing lawyers.
"So," said the judge. "Each of you has presented me with a bribe."
Both lawyers squirmed uncomfortably.
"You, attorney Mohanty, gave me $50,000," observed the judge. "And you, attorney Venkat, gave
me $60,000."The judge reached into his pocket, pulled out $10,000, and handed it to attorney Venkat.
"Now that I've returned $10,000 to attorney Venkat," exclaimed the judge proudly, "I'm going to
decide this case solely on its merits!"
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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October 23, 2008
Stossel's Politically Incorrect Guide to Politics
If you didn't have the opportunity to watch or record it last Friday, then watch the following six YouTube segments of John Stossel's Politically Incorrect Guide to Politics when you have the time (the other five segments are below the break). The program is television at its best presenting and analyzing key issues involving government regulation of business and the impact of that regulation on the creation of jobs and wealth. Enjoy:
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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October 21, 2008
Security theater
While considering the abject vacuity of the presidential candidates' positions on the major issues this election season, I started thinking about some minor issues that might make a difference in my vote.
For example, if either major candidate came out in favor of dismantling the "security" apparatus that the federal government has foisted upon us to make airline travel an aggravation, at best, and an ordeal most of the time, then that candidate would probably get my vote.
Alas, neither candidate has proposed such a dismantling.
Nevertheless, don't miss this clever-but-serious Jeffrey Goldberg/Atlantic.com article on the utter uselessness of the Transportation Safety Administration's airport security procedures (prior post here).
Inasmuch as the only two airport-security measures that really matter -- fortified cockpit doors and the awareness of the flying public as to what a hijacking can mean -- have been in place virtually since the attacks of September 11, 2001, Goldberg zeroes in on the wasteful airport security process that we have allowed the TSA to impose on us at a substantial direct cost and an even greater indirect one.
Moreover, that process does virtually nothing to discourage serious terrorist threats. Rather, the inspection process is "security theater" that simply makes a few naive travelers feel safer about airline travel.
Finally, if all that weren't bad enough, the worst news is that once a governmental "safeguard" such as the TSA apparatus is adopted, few politicians are interested in dismantling it even when it's clear that process is ineffective, expensive and obtrusive.
That's food for thought as we get ready to endure implementation of the next round of governmental regulation of business.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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October 19, 2008
Why some people should not vote
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October 16, 2008
Playing the Jimmy Carter card
You know it's desperation time for McCain when Victor Davis Hanson plays the Jimmy Carter card against Obama:
A great many moderates and conservatives are worn out and tired of Bush and Bush hatred, the European furor, serial charges of racism and illiberalism, and finally, in their weariness, think that Obama will, in a variety of ways, just make all the ickiness go away-as if he will make all of us be liked abroad and end racial and red/blue fighting at home. They should ask themselves whether Jimmy Carter restored American popularity with his human rights campaigns, praise of left-wing dictators, dialogue during the hostage crisis (cf. "The Great Satan"), boasts of no more inordinate fear of communism, etc., or whether Obama, in his Trinity/Acorn/Pfleger years, brought racial healing and understanding to Chicago.
This post from four years ago surveys the disastrous effect that the Carter Presidency had on the Democratic Party, and here is an earlier Hanson broadside on Carter.
The playing of the Jimmy Carter card reminded me of the following portrait of Carter penned by his first Treasury Secretary, W. Michael Blumenthal. The description is included on page 338 of Robert D. Novak's The Prince of Darkness: 50 Years Reporting in Washington (Crown 2007), which is a rollicking good read:
I saw [Carter] in 1977 and 1978 with outside groups in various settings, and I always felt that he made a very good impression because he would ask questions and listen. But I realized after a while that it was a PR operation because he paid absolutely no attention to what they said. He wrote it down, but nothing would happen with it. After a while, you get a sense of it. This was his way of trying to impress people. . .
He has a deep sense of inferiority, a very deep sense of inferiority. I discovered it when I began to realize that he confided in no one. Charlie [Chief Economic Adviser Charles Schultze] would have a weekly meeting with him, and he would come out and say to me that he had never worked for a man like that before. He never reacts. Occasionally, he would ask a question. He never debates. He never disagrees. . . .
He doesn't want strong people. He ruled out [John] Dunlop [for Secretary of Labor] and he ruled out George Ball [for Secretary of State]. He ruled out when he knew the people were strong, aggressive, confrontational personalities. He didn't know me from Adam. Had he known me, he would never have invited me in . . .
He dislikes people who are very strong and successful. That is why he doesn't like major businessmen, bankers or people who run big labor unions. You have to watch him, and he is very uncomfortable with them. He has this outward sort of politeness and gives his little spiel, but his eyes glaze over and later on he frequently makes derogatory comments about them. He feels very put upon by these people, and it is essentially that he is afraid that they know more than he does . . . .
The danger of isolation is great, and flattery is a commodity in abundance. We had a few Cabinet meetings, and people were kissing his ass. I asked if he recognized it when it was subtle and indirect, and he responded that he could tell. I could see increasingly that flattery went very far with him -- a person who does not recognize when he is being shamelessly flattered and who enjoys it. . . .
He briefs very quickly with sort of a veneer of knowledge and he can give back in an orderly fashion, but he doesn't retain it for very long. . . . I think the President when he came into office was a very inexperienced and poorly informed man.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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October 9, 2008
Say what?
As noted earlier here and here, the lack of leadership involved in the current credit crisis and related Treasury bailout really has been appalling. You don't think so? Check this out:
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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October 8, 2008
Campaigning in 2008
Although things aren't going so well for the McCain-Palin campaign, it looks as if they have at least locked up The Villages, the golf-course retirement community in Florida that runs those cheesy commercials during PGA Tour golf tournament telecasts:
With thousands of supporters packing the streets and sidewalks of this massive retirement community, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin took the safe route Sunday and said she and John McCain would reform Washington, put America on the path to energy independence and nurse a struggling economy back to health. [ . . . ]
At one point while signing autographs for the sweltering crowd, a surprised Palin laughed when a supporter reached over and handed her a giant, plastic lipstick replica -- an obvious reference to a joke delivered by Palin at the Republican National Convention. Palin's comment about the only difference between a pit bull and a hockey mom being lipstick has since inspired a volley of campaign rhetoric. As the crowd cheered, a smiling Palin autographed the novelty before moving on for more autographs and handshakes.
Meanwhile, it appears that the Obama-Biden campaign has conceded The Villages to McCain-Palin. At least that's what Senator Biden seems to indicate in the video below:
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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October 5, 2008
Did McCain choose the wrong Palin?
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September 30, 2008
This is leadership?
I've already said my piece on the proposed Treasury Bailout of Wall Street, so I won't belabor that view.
In the meantime, there are much better places to keep up with the minute-by-minute political developments on the proposed bailout -- for example, check out Clusterstock, DealBreaker and Felix Salmon for astute and up-to-the-minute analysis.
However, one point from my previous post deserves further review -- that is, circumstances such as this provide us with a revealing view of our political leaders. Do they inspire positive and collaborative action in difficult times for the better good of society? Or do they attempt to generate support for their political position through fear-mongering and demagoguery?
In my view, President Bush's handling of the negotiations over the proposed bailout has been abysmal. As Jeff Matthews points out:
The President’s unfortunate choice of words—"this sucker could go down"—carry the same deer-in-headlights quality as his televised speech to the American people last week, in which he used the word “panic,” as we recall. At a minimum, it makes you nervous; at a maximum, it makes you want to throw up first and sell everything second.
What happened to the heroic, forward-looking rhetoric great leaders are supposed to provide in times of crisis?
FDR gave us “We have nothing to fear but fear itself.”
Churchill gave us “We shall fight on the beaches.”
George Bush cruises in with “This sucker could go down.”
We wonder: has a more irresponsible sentence been uttered, by anyone, during this entire crisis?
John Carney reports that President Bush wasn't any better today in responding to the House's rejection of the proposed bailout:
"We put forth a plan that was big because we got a big problem," Bush just said, sitting in a chair placed before a fireplace in the White House. He's meeting with advisers, he said. "I'm disappointed with the vote in Congress," the president said.
Was that his version of FDR's famous fireside chats? Bush looked annoyed he was being bothered with this stuff.
This from a President who failed to persuade more than a third of his own party members in the House for his position in response to a financial emergency?
Meanwhile, proving that dubious leadership is bipartisan, Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi provided us with a lesson on how not to win support for a position:
Finally, Tina Fey didn't even need to change any of Sarah Palin's words to drive home the point that John McCain certainly didn't bolster his lack of financial and economic acumen with his running mate selection:
Update: More "leadership."
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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September 26, 2008
Lord, help us!
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September 24, 2008
The Treasury Bailout is not rocket science
The debate over the proposed Treasury bailout of Wall Street firms is coming at a fortuitous time -- the election season. Be wary of any candidates who, after looking appropriately concerned about the dire predictions of the plan's promoters, throw up their hands and vote in favor of the bailout because "we just have to do something" even if they don't understand what they are doing.
The fear mongering that the promoters are using to sell the bailout is laughable. This is not rocket science.
For example, when Enron tanked in late 2001, it was the seventh largest public company in the U.S. Enron traded derivatives and other financial instruments with counterparties that were among Wall Street's biggest commercial and investment banks, which were heavily exposed to its losses. To make matters worse, these investments were concentrated in the energy sector, which is at least as important to the nation's economy as the housing sector that is at the center of the current crisis.
In short, at the time of its bankruptcy, Enron was one of the nation's largest publicly-owned companies, a vitally-important market-maker in the natural gas trading industry and a leader in hedging corporate risk through structured finance transactions.
Despite the huge wealth destruction that would result from Enron's insolvency, not one government or Wall Street leader proposed a bailout of Enron in order to preserve the huge value to the public of the natural gas trading industry and the market for structured finance transactions.
Enron's bankruptcy proceeded to cause enormous tremors through various industries -- particularly the energy industry -- because valuable resources for hedging risk of loss had evaporated seemingly overnight. The natural gas trading industry nearly fell apart completely, costing companies and their customers untold billions of dollars that they otherwise could have saved through hedging risk of loss. Similarly, the market for many structured finance transactions dried up, also costing companies another valuable avenue for hedging risk.
However, the nation's financial system did not break down. Companies adjusted to the changed circumstances and endured their additional costs as best they could. Markets also adjusted. Slowly but surely, both the natural gas trading industry and the market for structured finance transactions rebounded so that both are again providing companies with valuable alternatives for hedging risk and saving money.
Now, the tables are turned on Wall Street. Rather than facing the consequences of their risk-taking decisions in chapter 11, Wall Street's politically well-connected leaders are weaving their tales of doom for the overall economy to compliant governmental leaders who are only too willing to do their bidding.
In reality, each of these Wall Street firms should be required to endure the same thing that Enron and its creditors did -- a chapter 11 reorganization where equity gets wiped out and creditors either take a haircut on payment of their debts or convert their debt to equity in a reorganized firm that emerges from bankruptcy with a cleaned-up balance sheet.
That process ensures that investors and creditors who undertook the risk of investing or dealing with the bankrupt firms share the losses of their risk-taking. Moreover, it allows the firms that really are worth saving (as opposed to simply liquidating) to emerge from bankruptcy with an improved financial condition that should provide the firm with an enhanced opportunity to create wealth again.
What the bailout plan proposes to do is insulate investors and creditors from risk of loss by having the government -- funded by taxpayers such as you and me -- undertake that risk. There is simply no moral justification for foisting that risk on taxpayers and the only possible practical justification is that sorting all of these firms' problems out in chapter 11 might take awhile.
But even if the government saw fit to accelerate the Wall Street reorganizations to hedge the risk of a prolonged economic downturn, there is simply no reason for the government to overpay for assets from financially-troubled firms. Rather, the government should simply propose a plan that implements the going-concern liquidation and debt-for-equity reorganization features of chapter 11 on an accelerated basis in return for some reasonable financial contribution to the process. And you can bet that contribution doesn't need to be close to $700 billion.
Luigi Zingales, the Robert C. Mc Cormack Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance at the University of Chicago, has written the most cogent piece I've seen to date on why the bailout is a bad idea. Even though it was wrong for the government to contribute to the massive amounts of wealth destruction that resulted from the demonization of Enron, the government was right not to bail out Enron. The circumstances are different now, so perhaps a different approach is more prudent than simply allowing all of these Wall Street companies to be sorted out in chapter 11.
But throwing $700 billion at investors and creditors who should be sharing the losses of their risk-taking is not even close to the best way of doing it.
Update: I couldn't help but laugh out loud this morning as Warren Buffett and the promoters of the Treasury bailout plan point to Buffett's sweet $5 billion investment in Goldman Sachs as an endorsement of the plan.
I prefer to look at what Buffett is doing rather than what he is saying.
What he is not doing is what Paulson and Bernanke want the U.S. Treasury to do -- buy investment banks' toxic assets. Rather, Buffett is buying preferred shares in Goldman with a big yield and warrants to buy Goldman stock at $115 (its trading at over $130) so that he can recover the profit his investment helps foster while Goldman transitions from an investment bank to a bank holding company over the next couple of years.
Meanwhile, Paulson and Bernanke keep promoting their plan to throw $700 billion at whatever trashy assets that Wall Street serves up to them.
It does not engender much confidence that Buffett can cut a far better deal with Wall Street's best-run investment bank than Paulson and Bernanke propose to cut with the worst-run ones.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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September 21, 2008
This is too easy
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September 11, 2008
Hank's Thank-You Note
Mr. Juggles over at Long or Short Capital passes along this fictional thank-you note from Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson to American taxpayers after this week's seemingly inevitable federal bailout of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (prior posts here):
Dear US Taxpayer,
I would like to congratulate you on your recent purchase. I am glad I was able to convince you that now is the ideal time to offer an uncapped backstop on a $5.2 trillion book of mortgages. We here at the Treasury Dept (along with our sisters over at the Fed), appreciate your repeat business. I am confident that this acquisition will be a profitable one; perhaps even more profitable than your recent purchase of JPMorgan’s Bear Stearns’ liabilities!
Please know that we are actively seeking more deals on which we can work together. I am confident we will find more interesting opportunities before the end of the year.
Yours Truly,
Hank Paulson
Herbert Spencer got it right long ago (H/T Bryan Caplan):
"The ultimate effect of shielding men from the effects of folly, is to fill the world with fools."
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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September 4, 2008
Election 2008
Inasmuch as the 2008 U.S. Presidential campaign resembles a high school student council race in terms of sophistication, it appears that Jon Stewart and Comedy Central are going to have a field day between now and Election Day. Below are a recent segments on the "substance" of Obama's campaign and McCain's VP selection:
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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August 13, 2008
The fall of a demagogue
I wasn't going to blog anything about John Edwards' recent public admission to an affair with Rielle Hunter. As has been noted many times previously on this blog, Edwards is a demagogue who represents the worst in American national politics. I would have much preferred that Edwards' demagoguery be the reason for the demise of his political career rather than a tawdry affair that is hurtful to Edwards' innocent family members, even if it was "oncologically correct," as Maureen Dowd put it.
But turning to Ms. Hunter, check out this Jonathan Darman/Newsweek article. What a piece of work. Once Hunter decided to pounce, Edwards never had a chance. It almost makes one feel sorry for him. Almost.
By the way, while considering matters political, don't miss Josh Green's Atlantic piece on the demise of the Hillary Clinton campaign (previous posts here).
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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August 11, 2008
Barackroll
As political satire, the video below probably doesn't top this one, but it's close.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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July 28, 2008
Another innovative California industry
The New Yorker's David Samuels reports on how medical marijuana is changing a popular California industry:
Since 1996, when a referendum known as Proposition 215 was approved by California voters, it has been legal, under California state law, for authorized patients to possess or cultivate the drug. The proposition also allowed a grower to cultivate marijuana for a patient, as long as he had been designated a “primary caregiver” by that patient. Although much of the public discussion centered on the needs of patients with cancer, AIDS, and other diseases that are synonymous with extraordinary suffering, the language of the proposition was intentionally broad, covering any medical condition for which a licensed physician might judge marijuana to be an appropriate remedy—insomnia, say, or attention-deficit disorder. [. . .]
In 2003, the California State Legislature passed Senate Bill 420. The law was intended to clear up some of the confusion caused by Proposition 215, which had failed to specify how patients who could not grow their own pot were expected to obtain the drug, and how much pot could be cultivated for medical purposes. The law permitted any Californian with a doctor’s note to own up to six mature marijuana plants, or to possess up to half a pound of processed weed, which could be obtained from a patients’ collective or coöperative—terms that were not precisely defined in the statute. It also permitted a primary caregiver to be paid “reasonable compensation” for services provided to a qualified patient “to enable that person to use marijuana.” [. . .]
A drug-policy analyst named Jon Gettman recently estimated that in 2006 Californians grew more than twenty million pot plants. He reckoned that between 1981 and 2006 domestic marijuana production increased tenfold, making pot the leading cash crop in America, displacing corn. A 2005 State Department report put the country’s marijuana crop at twenty-two million pounds. The street value of California’s crop alone may be as high as fourteen billion dollars. [. . .]
I recently spent six months, off and on, with ["Captain"] Blue [a pot broker] — at his apartment, in private homes, on farms, in pot grow rooms, and in other places where “medical marijuana” is produced, traded, sold, and consumed in California. During that time, I saw thousands of Tibetan prayer flags. The flags identify their owners with serenity and the conscious path, rather than with the sinister world of urban dope dealers, who flaunt muscles and guns, and charge exorbitant prices for mediocre product. For Blue and tens of thousands of like-minded individuals, Proposition 215 presented an opportunity to participate in a legally sanctioned experiment in altered living. The people I met in the high-end ganja business had an affinity for higher modes of thinking and being, including vegetarianism and eating organic food, practicing yoga, avoiding prescription drugs in favor of holistic healing methods, traveling to Indonesia and Thailand, fasting, and experimenting with hallucinogenic drugs. Many were also financially savvy, working long hours and making six-figure incomes.
Read the entire article. Meanwhile, take a moment to read about one of the many costly reminders of the misguided nature of American drug prohibition policy.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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July 6, 2008
An excellent primer for the political season
The Heritage Foundation provides this outstanding series of charts (example to the left) reflecting various issues relating to federal revenue and spending.
Recommended reading before listening to any candidate during the upcoming political campaigns.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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June 28, 2008
U.S. Energy Policy
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June 26, 2008
Colbert on Hannity
Stephen Colbert channels Jessica Hagy in analyzing conservative talk-show host Sean Hannity.
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June 23, 2008
Clear thinking to begin the week
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June 8, 2008
Colbert v. Will
Clear Thinkers favorite Stephen Colbert finally meets his match -- syndicated columnist George Will:
By the way, check out Will's latest on Obama and McCain:
On Obama: "Obama's words mesmerize a nation accustomed to leaders who routinely use words with antic indifference to their accuracy."
On McCain: "If he really opposes torture, he will take pity on the public and master the use of a teleprompter."
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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June 6, 2008
Hillary's flaw
The strangely obsolescent presidential campaign of Hillary Clinton is one of the most intriguing stories of this political season. The Financial Times' Clive Cook provides a spot on foreigner's perspective:
[Clinton's] performance last night was stunningly ill-judged, and speaks volumes about her fitness to lead—or lack of it. Under the circumstances, one can understand, maybe, a reluctance to concede. But to declare moral victory; to insist, knowing that she had lost, that she remains the stronger candidate; to start positioning herself to demand the VP slot as of right: all this was not just remarkably ungracious, it was also patently counter-productive from a strictly selfish point of view. Can’t she see that she has made it easier, not harder, for Obama to keep her off the ticket?
One of the CNN analysts debating Hillary’s non-concession speech mentioned emails coming in which said that Tuesday “needed to be her night.” At this one of the others spluttered, “It had to be her night? Obama just won!”… before, in a valuable moment of reckless honesty, referring to “the Clintons’ deranged narcissism”. Yes, I thought (recalling, incidentally, Alistair Campbell’s comment that Gordon Brown was “psychologically flawed”). Read her speech, and compare it with Obama’s. His extravagant (and tactically shrewd) praise of her; a speech addressed not just to the whole Democratic party but to the whole country; calculated, of course, calibrated—with nothing in it that was smug or self-regarding or sectarian. Contrast that with her perfunctory acknowledgement of him, followed by a recitation of her achievements and the obstacles that had been put in her way: Enough about our nominee, this is my night and I want to talk about me.
Something tells me that she is not cut out to be Obama’s deputy. If he puts her on the ticket, I think he will be making a big mistake.
Clinton's inability to compete with Obama's charismatic articulation of a vision for the country definitely worked against her in the campaign. But my sense is that the genesis of her downfall was voters' distrust of her inner Tracy Flick.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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June 2, 2008
Ron Paul, we hardly knew ye
This post from last June noted Houston-area Congressman Ron Paul's deft media touch on Comedy Central's Daily Show. Now, a year later, Jim Henley sums up the utter failure that Paul's presidential campaign became:
This fellow can’t spell "candidate," but by being willing to come out and say that Ron Paul Lost, he’s closer to wisdom than the entire staff of Takimag. The full measure of Paul’s failure isn’t even that he’s not going to be the Republican nominee. It’s that, even since everyone else dropped out of the race but Paul and McCain, he’s still been losing to Mike Huckabee in every state where the Huckster was on the ballot except Pennsyvlania (Paul was born in Pennsylvania.) Idaho is the only other primary state where he broke 10%. (He hit low double-digits in a few caucus states.) He has 35 delegates by CNN’s reckoning. Huckabee has 275 and Romney 255. With his $30 million in donations, he’s barely breaking the million-bucks-a-delegate mark. That’s ten times the much-ridiculed rate of Mitt Romney.
Paul failed to win any states, to move the GOP debate in his direction, to accrue significant delegates or to leverage his fund-raising into a third-party run. And word is he’s staying quiet about endorsing an independent because he doesn’t want the Congressional GOP leadership to strip him of committee assignments come the fall. Paul accomplished the one thing he’s always been good at: using political appeals to get people to send money. I don’t feel freer.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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May 13, 2008
Ignoring the noise from next door
The problems that the obsolescent U.S. drug prohibition policy exacerbate along the Texas-Mexico border are a frequent topic on this blog, so this Mary Anastasia O'Grady/W$J article on the latest developments in the drug war just south of the border caught my eye:
American nonchalance about drug use stands in sharp contrast to what is happening across the border in Mexico. There lawmen are taking heavy casualties in a showdown with drug-running crime syndicates. On Thursday the chief of the Mexican federal police, Edgar Millán Gómez, was assassinated by men waiting for him when he came home, becoming the latest and most prominent victim of the syndicates. [. . .]
It's no secret that the narcotics trade is like a roach infestation. If you see one shipment or dealer, you can be sure that there are many others that go undetected. That's why such brazen behavior at [San Diego State University] should be disturbing to America's drug warriors. The signs of an infestation are everywhere, making a joke of their 40-year claim that any day now they will wipe out American drug use. [. . .]
The upshot: Americans underwrite Mexico's vicious organized crime syndicates. The gringos get their drugs and the Mexican mafia gets weapons, technology and the means to buy off or intimidate anyone who gets in their way. Caught in the middle is a poor country striving to develop sound institutions for law enforcement.
The trouble for Mexico is that, even if it understands that U.S. demand is not going away, it cannot afford to cede large swaths of the country to the drug cartels. Thus Mexican President Felipe Calderón has made confronting organized crime a priority since taking office in December 2006. His attorney general, Eduardo Medina Mora, told me in February that the goal is to reclaim the state's authority where it has been lost to the mafias.
But after 17 months of engagement, while San Diego students party on, victory remains elusive and the Mexican death toll is mounting. Most of the drug-related killings since Mr. Calderón took office seem to be a result of battles between rival cartels. Still, the escalating violence is troubling. The official death toll attributable to organized crime since the Calderón crackdown began now stands at 3,995. Of that, 1,170 have died this year.
Especially alarming are the number of assassinations among military personnel and municipal, state and federal police officers. The total is 439 for the 17 months and 109 so far this year. Many of these victims have been ordinary police officers whose refusal to be bought off or back off cost them their lives.
But as the murder of police chief Millan makes clear, high rank offers no safety. Two weeks before he was gunned down, Roberto Velasco, the head of the organized crime division of the federal police, was shot in the head. The assailants took his car, which leaves open the possibility that it was a random event, but most Mexicans are not buying that theory. Eleven federal law enforcement agents have been killed in ambushes and executions in the last four weeks alone.
If U.S. law enforcement agencies were losing their finest at such a rate, you can bet Americans would give greater thought to the violence generated by high demand and prohibition. Our friends in Mexico deserve equal consideration.
The most troubling aspect of all this is that spillover violence toward U.S. authorities would probably just be met with beefed-up prohibition efforts. Are the vested interests who benefit from the outmoded-but-lucrative prohibition policy simply too entrenched for there to be serious Congressional consideration given to a more humane and cost-effective drug policy?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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May 11, 2008
Nixonland
George Will gives Rick Perlstein, author of Nixonland (Scribner 2008), a history lesson.
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May 10, 2008
Worth a watch
For those of you interested in the vexing issues involved in application of the death penalty and child predator laws, the scene below from Boston Legal is worth ten minutes of your time (H/T David Feige). I don't agree with everything that Alan Shore says in his argument to the U.S. Supreme Court, and the scene is certainly far-fetched, but it's a thought-provoking performance nonetheless:
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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May 5, 2008
Chron: Sacrifice the local economy for the polar bears
Given the editorial slant of the Houston Chronicle over the past several years, it's not particularly surprising that the editors ran this editorial calling for polar bears to be declared an endangered species under the federal Endangered Species Act.
Unfortunately, it's also not surprising that the Chron editorial failed to mention that the oil and gas business -- a key source of jobs and wealth for Houston and the nation -- is likely to suffer considerable financial damage as a result of the polar bear listing push, which Hugh Hewitt notes "is not only an abuse of the ESA's original intent but also unsupported by the facts concerning the ice and the polar bears."
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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April 29, 2008
Fueling food riots
Peter Gordon observed the other day that "politicians are better at creating problems than addressing them. Schools, housing, health care, transportation and others suffer from too much political attention."
Echoing that idea, Clear Thinkers favorite James Hamilton writes about one of the underlying economic reasons for food riots that are occurring in developing nations in some parts of the world:
As a result of ethanol subsidies and mandates, the dollar value of what we ourselves throw away in order to produce fuel in this fashion could be 50% greater than the value of the fuel itself. In other words, we could have more food for the Haitians, more fuel for us, and still have something left over for your other favorite cause, if we were simply to use our existing resources more wisely.
We have adopted this policy not because we want to drive our cars, but because our elected officials perceive a greater reward from generating a windfall for American farmers.
But the food price increases are now biting ordinary Americans as well. That could make those political calculations change, and may present be an opportunity for a nimble politician to demonstrate a bit of real leadership. I notice, for example, that although Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) was among those who voted in favor of the monstrous 2005 Energy Bill that began these mandates, Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and John McCain (R-AZ) were among the 26 senators who bravely voted against it.
Wouldn't it be refreshing if one of them actually tried to make this a campaign issue?
Sigh. Read the entire post.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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April 27, 2008
Thoughts for a Sunday
The NY Times' Adam Liptak has penned a couple of interesting articles recently (here and here) on a frequent topic of this blog (here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here) -- the troubling incarceration rate in the United States.
With only 5% of the world's population, the U.S. now houses almost a quarter (2.3 million!) of the world's prisoners. One in 100 adults in the U.S. is now behind bars and 751 people are in U.S. prisons or jails for every 100,000 in population. The only other major industrialized nation that even comes close to that rate of incarceration is Russia with 627 prisoners for every 100,000 people. England’s rate is 151, Germany’s is 88 and Japan’s is 63. Attempting to keep all of this in perspective, Pepperdine University's James Q. Wilson provides this recent op-ed that puts the U.S. incarceration rate in a more favorable light with regard to reducing serious crime.
Among other things, these incarceration numbers certainly makes one wonder why on earth we are sending folks like Jeff Skilling, the NatWest Three, the Merrill Four and Jamie Olis to prison?
Meanwhile, in this five-part LA Times debate, Reason's Jacob Sullum takes on the Heritage Foundation’s Charles Stimson over one of the main reasons for the high U.S. incarceration rate -- drug prohibition. At least in this first installment, Sullum makes a much more compelling case than Stimson. And Peter Gordon has this sage observation about the genesis of drug prohibition.
Posted by Tom at 12:01 AM
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February 27, 2008
Dick Armey on immigration
I must admit, I never thought that former House Majority Leader Dick Armey would sound like a statesman to me. I was wrong. Watch the video to find out why.
Posted by Tom at 12:10 AM
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The diversity of Texas
Yes, Texas is a diverse place. It's a part of its charm. But following on this post from yesterday, that diversity does not make it an easy place to get one's arms around.
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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February 26, 2008
The importance of running a Presidential campaign
On the heels of the Frank Rich/NY Times column castigating the Hillary Clinton campaign team, one of the best business law professors in the U.S. explains why the ability to run a large political campaign is an important qualification of a President:
A virtue of our political system as it is operated today is that it ensures that no one can be elected president who cannot run a major organization. This may not be enough – Bush ran two smooth campaigns but has had more trouble running a war. But it should at least be the price of admission.
And candidates should keep all this in mind before they go bashing "big business." If the candidates can't achieve the same level of competence as the firms they bash in bringing order out of chaos, they should just stay in the Senate and let others do the more important jobs.
Read the entire post. As this Richard Murray post indicates, early voting trends in Texas do not look good for the Clinton campaign.
By the way, did you catch the following Jon Stewart crack during the Oscars?: "Away From Her is about a woman who forgets about her husband. Hillary Clinton called it the feel-good movie of the year."
Posted by Tom at 12:10 AM
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February 25, 2008
Rate Congress on free trade
Check out this excellent Cato Institute website that allows you to evaluate the voting record of each member of the past six sessions of Congress on free trade issues.
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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February 22, 2008
Hillary's redemption?
It's rare that I post on politics two days in a row (or even two times in a week, for that matter), but the meltdown of Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign has been one of those fascinating political developments that simply begs for analysis (yesterday's post is here).
David Berg, one of Houston's best trial lawyers and a longtime Democratic Party supporter, provides this insightful op-ed in the Chronicle yesterday explaining why he switched from supporting Clinton to Obama and why Clinton is suffering in comparison to Obama:
I guarantee you, as the oldest living man in America who has actually attended a Hannah Montana concert, my daughter is completely colorblind. From what I have seen of her generation, and that of my grown sons', that is the norm, not the exception. Racial politics simply won't work; not this time — and if all that good will seeps into the wider world — perhaps never again.I wish, frankly, that the Clintons, who in many ways helped make Obama's candidacy possible, could hear firsthand how they let down so many people who cared about them and supported them through many tough years — how by their divisive tactics they have become the people and politics they deplore.
In short, I wish they could have been there Tuesday night to understand clearly how times and mores have changed and, perhaps, to understand how important it is that a new generation be given a chance.
By the way, on more mundane topics, it appears that Clinton's management ability is not what her supporters crack it up to be. $11,000 on pizza and $1,200 on Dunkin’ Donuts?
Meanwhile, NY Times columnist David Brooks examines the new political syndrome -- Obama Comedown Syndrome (a/k/a "OCS").
Posted by Tom at 12:10 AM
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February 21, 2008
Bashing the capitalist roaders
Does it appear to anyone else that Hillary Clinton is getting a bit desperate in attempting to salvage her campaign for the Democratic nomination? Get a load of this:
Sen. Hillary Clinton took a swipe at [investment bankers], suggesting wealthy investment bankers and hedge fund managers on Wall Street aren't doing real 'work.' [. . .]"We also have to reward work more," Clinton told a small group of Ohio residents today. "and by that, I mean, I have people in New York working on Wall Street as investment managers, as hedge fund executives. Under the tax code, they can pay a lower percentage of their income in taxes on $50 million dollars, than a teacher, or a nurse, or a truck driver in Parma pays on $50,000. That's very discouraging to people." [. . .]
The line about investment fund and hedge fund managers has been introduced into Clinton's talking points as she campaigns across the economically struggling state of Ohio.
Investment bankers are certainly an easy target, but Clinton's statement that they don't do "real work" is either disingenuous or appallingly ignorant. Would Clinton say such a thing about other financial intermediaries such as real estate brokers? Investment bankers working on multi-billion dollar mergers are not all that different from real estate brokers -- they are financial intermediaries who get paid a commission for helping to originate and close deals. In short, they are being paid a fee for arranging a transaction between a willing buyer and a willing seller.
And believe me, for anyone who has ever seen investment bankers work a deal, it's definitely hard work. Finding potential buyers and sellers, persuading them to become involved in a transaction, and making the deal happen amidst the myriad of risks that could undermine it is not a cakewalk. Long hours, the ability to deal with rejection, the uncertainty of the fee until the deal closes, grinding travel and pressurized work conditions are just a few of the hardships that investment bankers endure.
Inasmuch as such work is hard, it's not for everybody. Thus, with really good investment bankers in short supply, they can command high compensation. And the good ones are well worth it. Where else will a seller or buyer find someone with a comprehensive list of direct contacts among potential parties to a transaction and extensive experience getting difficult deals closed? A principal to a transaction is simply renting those contacts and experience and, although often expensive, the investment banker is worth every penny if he or she can pull a deal together for the principal.
The foregoing is pretty basic stuff, so it's alarming that a Senator from a state with more investment bankers than any other would engage in demagoguery over them. John Carney over at Dealbreaker sums up the irony quite well:
"Now being the First Lady for eight years and a Senator from a state in which you've never lived, that's real work."
And lest the Obama crowd get too over-confident with Clinton's increasingly bizarre statements, get a load of this performance by Austin lawyer, former Austin mayor and current Texas state senator Kirk Watson, who has endorsed Obama:
Posted by Tom at 12:10 AM
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February 14, 2008
The aftermath of the Clemens hearing
Many folks have been asking me about my thoughts on the Roger Clemens saga, but I am so disappointed with the abysmal level of discourse regarding the Mitchell Commission Report and the issues involved with the use of steroids and other PED's in society that I find it hard to drum up much enthusiasm for addressing it. Compare the discussion of the issues from this earlier post with this live blog analysis of the questions and answers from Clemens hearing and you will see what I mean. Sort of makes you want to whipsaw the committee in the same manner as this Colman McCarthy/Washington Post op-ed, doesn't it? Art DeVany expresses similar sentiments.
Although I expressed reservations early on about the unconventional way in which Clemens' legal team has been defending the matter, I don't think the hearing measurably increased Clemens' risk of being charged criminally. In fact, in an odd way, the hearing may have actually mitigated that risk somewhat.
McNamee came across as such a manipulator that my sense is that it's doubtful that prosecutors would base a criminal case against Clemens primarily on McNamee's testimony. Thus, unless investigators come up with a conduit of the PED's who is willing to testify that the PED's were delivered to Clemens and McNamee, Clemens may avoid criminal charges. He is certainly not out of the woods yet, but the Congressional hearing probably hurt him more in the court of public opinion than it did with regard to a potential criminal case (Update: Peter Henning agrees with me).
Nevertheless, I'm not yet ready to bet on that prediction. At least without long odds in my favor.
Posted by Tom at 12:05 AM
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February 11, 2008
Vetting the Trans-Texas Corridor
This Ralph Blumenthal/NY Times article does a good job of summarizing the massive scale that is the proposed Trans-Texas Corridor project:
. . . the Trans-Texas Corridor, a public-private partnership unrivaled in the state’s — or probably any state’s — history, that would stretch well into the century and, if completed in full, end up costing around $200 billion. [. . .]The plan envisions a 4,000-mile network of new toll roads, with car and truck lanes, rail lines, and pipeline and utilities zones, to bypass congested cities and speed freight to and from Mexico. [. . .]
The corridor project grew out of the 2002 governor’s race when [Governor] Rick Perry, . . . surprised transportation experts by taking ideas they had discussed a decade earlier, to little interest, and “supersizing them,” as one recalled.
The project grew to consist of four “priority segments:” new multimodal toll roads up to 1,200 feet wide paralleling Interstates 35 and 37 from Denison in North Texas to the Rio Grande Valley; a proposed I-69 from Texarkana to Houston and Laredo; I-45 from Dallas-Fort Worth to Houston; and I-10 from El Paso to Orange on the Louisiana border. But the exact routes are years away from being designated.
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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February 9, 2008
Elevating form over substance
The McCain-Feingold campaign finance bill was not John McCain's finest hour. John Lott makes a good point about the utter hypocrisy of it all in connection with the Clintons' recent loan to Hillary's cash-strapped campaign:
Former President Clinton stands to reap around $20 million -- and will sever a politically sensitive partnership tie to Dubai -- by ending his high-profile business relationship with the investment firm of billionaire friend Ron Burkle. . . .Obviously Clinton has gotten a lot of money from other sources, so there is no need to single out Burkle, but Burkle obviously can't donate $10 or $12 million to Clinton's campaign. Yet, if he pays Clinton for work that isn't very obvious, Clinton can then turn around and spend it on a campaign. Does it really matter that Burkle can't give the money directly to Clinton?
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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February 4, 2008
A birthday wish
Don't miss Greg Mankiw's birthday wish:
My birthday wish is for all of us to stop asking what the government can do for us today. Instead, we should focus on what we can do together to prepare the economy for our children and grandchildren. That means getting ready to care more for ourselves in old age, perhaps by retiring later, perhaps by saving more. I hope that when I celebrate my 100th birthday in 2058, my descendants won’t look upon Grandpa and his generation as the biggest economic problem of their time.
Read the entire op-ed. Salient thought for a political season.
Posted by Tom at 12:05 AM
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An uncomfortable issue for John McCain
The hypocritical and unproductive nature of the government policy of drug prohibition has been a frequent subject on this blog (see here, here, here and here), so this Radley Balko post about Cindy McCain, John McCain's wife, caught my eye:
. . .the problem with the hypocritical practice of letting politicians’ family members get off for drug crimes that land normal people in prison is that it doesn’t seem to do much in the way of making them more sympathetic. It just hardens them into more militant drug warriors.
Read the entire post.
Posted by Tom at 12:02 AM
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January 31, 2008
The wisdom of U.S. Presidential campaigns
Much is wrong with U.S. Presidential campaigns. They last much too long, are far too expensive and the rhetoric is mostly mind-numbing.
However, for all its faults, the messy process does have a way of eliminating the candidates that need to be weeded out (see also here and here).
By the way, Megan McArdle has the New York City perspective on Giuliani's withdrawal.
Posted by Tom at 12:05 AM
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January 29, 2008
Hillary Clinton's Inner Tracy Flick
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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January 28, 2008
The costs of prohibition
The nature of the problems that confront Texans and law enforcement officers who live near the Texas-Mexico border have been a frequent topic on this blog (see here, here, and here). Those problems are exacerbated by the archaic nature of U.S. drug laws (see here and here).
This must-read Scott Henson post does an excellent job of defining the parameters of the increasingly serious problems on the Texas-Mexico border.
No Country for Old Men may be fiction, but the story it tells is very real.
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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January 27, 2008
A truly frightening thought
It's been comforting that John Edwards' demagoguery has not generated the type of buzz and political support that would make him a top contender for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination. However, this Robert Novak/Rasmussen blurb ended my sense of comfort:
Illinois Democrats close to Sen. Barack Obama are quietly passing the word that John Edwards will be named attorney general in an Obama administration.Installation at the Justice Department of multimillionaire trial lawyer Edwards would please not only the union leaders supporting him for president but organized labor in general. The unions relish the prospect of an unequivocal labor partisan as the nation's top legal officer.
What would an anti-business demagogue be like as attorney general? Here's a preview (another one here). That's not the way to encourage risk-taking for job and wealth creation.
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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January 23, 2008
At least he's consistent
Well, at least Rudy Giuliani behaved consistently both before and after becoming Mayor of New York City (Reason's David Weigel also provides this interesting Giuliani piece along the same lines).
Having said that, I don't think that's the type of consistency that most reasoned folks want in a U.S. President.
Posted by Tom at 12:10 AM
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January 22, 2008
Birds of a feather?
Perhaps coincidentally, I came across the following two news reports consecutively yesterday morning. First from this BBC article:
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has threatened to nationalise farms, in an effort to tackle food shortages.Government controls keep food prices low in shops to help even the poorest Venezuelans feed themselves.
But some farmers prefer to sell their produce in neighbouring countries where prices are higher, leading to shortages of bread, milk, eggs and meat.
In his weekly television show, Mr Chavez said farmers doing this should have their farms "expropriated". [. . .]
On Saturday, Mr Chavez threatened to nationalise banks which did not give enough low-interest loans to farmers.
Banks are not allowed to charge farmers interest higher than 15% - even though inflation last year ran at 22.5%.
"The bank that fails to comply must be sanctioned, and I am not talking about a little fine," he said. "The bank that does not comply must be seized." [. . .]
Critics say complying with government policy could drive some businesses into bankruptcy.
Then, a little closer to home, came this NY Times article on Democratic Party Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's views on government control of the economy:
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton said that if she became president, the federal government would take a more active role in the economy to address what she called the excesses of the market and of the Bush administration.. . . Mrs. Clinton put her emphasis on issues like inequality and the role of institutions like government, rather than market forces, in addressing them.
She said that economic excesses — including executive-pay packages she characterized as often “offensive” and “wrong” and a tax code that had become “so far out of whack” in favoring the wealthy — were holding down middle-class living standards. [. . .]
“If you go back and look at our history, we were most successful when we had that balance between an effective, vigorous government and a dynamic, appropriately regulated market,” Mrs. Clinton said. “And we have systematically diminished the role and the responsibility of our government, and we have watched our market become imbalanced.”
She added: “I want to get back to the appropriate balance of power between government and the market.” [. . .]
“We’ve done it in previous generations,” she said, alluding to large-scale public projects like the interstate highway system and the space program. “But we’ve got to have a plan.” [. . .]
“Inequality is growing,” Mrs. Clinton said. “The middle class is stalled. The American dream is premised on a growing economy where people are in a meritocracy and, if they’re willing to work hard, they will realize the fruits of their labor.”
So, on one hand, Chavez is demonstrating that, even with the economic benefit of having high-priced oil to export, a government can still lower the living standards of its citizens if it tries hard enough.
On the other hand, Hillary does not appear to recognize that her proposals are quite capable of accomplishing the same thing within the world's most dynamic economy.
Posted by Tom at 12:10 AM
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The Thompson plan
Last week, Ironman over at Political Calculations reviewed the Giuliani income tax simplification plan. This week, he tackles the even more impressively simple tax simplification plan advocated by GOP Presidential candidate, Fred Thompson.
Of course, as if on cue, Thompson dropped out of the GOP race today.
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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January 16, 2008
What's missing in the tax debate
Wouldn't it be nice if at least one of the Presidential candidates would embrace the basic reform that is really needed in the U.S. tax system? Simply simplification. Previous posts on tax simplification issues are here. Interestingly, one of my least favored Presidential candidates -- Rudy Giuliani -- has the best tax simplification proposal that I've seen so far during the campaign.
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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January 14, 2008
Myths about oil are hard to dispel
Amidst the demagoguery of a U.S. Presidential campaign, it's rare to find the mainstream media willing to run Robert Bryce's common sense on energy policy and oil prices. For example:
Myth 3: Energy independence will let America choke off the flow of money to nasty countries.Fans of energy independence argue that if the United States stops buying foreign energy, it will deny funds to petro-states such as Iran, Saudi Arabia and Hugo Chavez's Venezuela. But the world marketplace doesn't work like that. Oil is a global commodity. Its price is set globally, not locally. Oil buyers are always seeking the lowest-cost supplier. So any Saudi crude being loaded at the Red Sea port of Yanbu that doesn't get purchased by a refinery in Corpus Christi or Houston will instead wind up in Singapore or Shanghai.
Refer to this article whenever you are listening to the candidates from either party start talking about energy policy. Come to think of it, while considering political choices, you should also keep handy this Bryan Caplan/WaPo op-ed entitled 5 Myths About Our Ballot-Box Behavior.
Posted by Tom at 12:05 AM
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January 8, 2008
The power of words
James Fallows hits on what I believe is a very important dynamic in Barack Obama's surge past Hillary Clinton among Democrats -- the power of words:
Words and deeds. Talk and action. Poetry and prose. Presidents obviously do best when they can do both.But only Obama captured what is unique about a president's role. A President's actions matter -- Lyndon Johnson with his legislation, Richard Nixon with his opening to China -- but lots of other people can help shape policies. A President's words often matter more, and only he -- or she -- can express them. Grant led the Union Army, but Abraham Lincoln, in addition to selecting Grant, wrote and delivered his inaugural and Gettysburg addresses. Long before Franklin Roosevelt actually did anything about the Great Depression, his first inaugural address ("the only thing we have to fear...") was important in itself. The same was true of Winston Churchill just after he succeeded Neville Chamberlain. It would be years before the Nazi advance would be contained, but Churchill's words and bearing were indispensable to Britain's recovery.
On the other hand, George W. Bush's difficulty in expressing himself publicly has exacerbated the perception of a rudderless Administration. With that constant reminder over the past seven years, I'm surprised that Clinton's handlers don't have her better prepared to express herself well in public debates. Perhaps, as with Bush, she simply lacks the public speaking gift of her husband. But I am continually amazed at how often her extemporaneous public statements are littered with the ubiquitous "you know" crutch as she gathers her thoughts. That habit, as well as her instinct to default to a government solution on virtually every issue, fuels the perception that she lacks substance.
Posted by Tom at 12:05 AM
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January 5, 2008
The Great Debaters
My younger daughter, my wife and I took in Denzel Washington's new film the other night, The Great Debaters. Although the story was somewhat formulaic and the movie certainly not perfect, we found the movie to be hugely entertaining. The acting is superb, particularly the reliable Mr. Washington and newcomer Denzel Whitaker, a delightful young actor who literally steals the show as the youngest of the college debaters. Mr. Washington, who also directed, wisely decided to tell the story through Mr. Whitaker's character (James Farmer, Jr.), and Mr. Whitaker is more than up to the task. What a talent!
Interestingly, the always-excellent Forest Whitaker plays James Farmer, Sr., the father of the young Mr. Whitaker's character in the movie. However, despite their common last name, the two are not related.
At any rate, in discussing the movie on the way home afterward, my daughter observed that it sure is a good thing that the horrific racism depicted in the movie is not condoned in American society anymore. My reply was that brutal discrimination of blacks is still not as uncommon as we like to think. Scott Henson and Radley Balko comment on the unacceptable revelations of, at minimum, prosecutorial negligence in Dallas. Where is the outrage?
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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December 18, 2007
That governmental Ponzi scheme
At the end of this common sense post that mostly points out that no useful public policy is served by the government denying grandparents the right to establish Health Savings Accounts for the benefit of their grandchildren, the always entertaining Art DeVany makes the following observation about a common topic on this blog -- Social Security reform (previous posts are here):
By the way, there is no such thing as social security. There are only people who are more or less secure against contingencies. They might pool their risks against these contingencies, but there is no effective way for a society to avoid risk. As a program for risk pooling, Social Security is very ineffective. It is not insurance, it is redistribution among generations. It is a Ponzi scheme because the risk pool is allocated from one generation to another. And, it is fraught with demographic risk and political risk. It will eventually go under or have to be modified substantially by disavowing the contract between generations because it is not sustainable.
Posted by Tom at 12:05 AM
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December 17, 2007
Giuliani's ideas on transparent government
Jim Dwyer of the NY Times reports that Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani's ideas about transparency in government are quite similar to his crimebuster practices.
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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November 30, 2007
Say what, John Edwards?
Following on the previous post, have you heard about demagogue John Edwards' latest proposal?
A two-year ban on advertising for prescription drugs.
Paul Jacob suggests a common sense ban of another sort.
Posted by Tom at 12:10 AM
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The key issue in the 2008 Presidential race
As usual, the Onion identifies the issue with precision:
Poll: Bullshit Is Most Important Issue For 2008 Voters
Posted by Tom at 12:05 AM
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November 16, 2007
Remembering 1968
In 1968, I was a 15-year old concentrating on playing various high school sports in Iowa City, a Midwestern college town. However, even in that somewhat sheltered environment, it was impossible not to realize that 1968 was an unusually tumultuous year. This Daniel Henninger/Opinion Journal op-ed reminds us of just what a wild ride 1968 was:
In 1968, Nicolas Sarkozy was 13 years old. John McCain was 32 and Hillary Clinton was 21. Barack Obama was 7. It is not beyond imagining that the precocious Messrs. Sarkozy and Obama were alert to events in 1968, but for the first wave of baby boomers just touching adulthood that year, it was the beginning of a strange journey.Nearly any one of the events that went off in 1968 would have been enough to dominate another year. To list what actually happened that year even today boggles the mind, and spirit.
The year began with sales of the Beatles album, "Magical Mystery Tour." In retrospect, it was a premonition. In late January, North Korea captured the USS Pueblo and crew members. A week later, the North Vietnamese army launched the Tet offensive.
On Feb. 27, Walter Cronkite announced on CBS News that the U.S. had to negotiate a settlement to the Vietnam War. On March 12, Sen. Gene McCarthy defeated incumbent President Lyndon Johnson in the New Hampshire primary, aided by antiwar students that Sen. McCarthy called his "children's crusade." Two weeks later, LBJ announced on TV that he would not run for re-election. One week later, Martin Luther King Jr. was assassinated. It was only April 4.
There were race riots everywhere. On April 24, students occupied five buildings at Columbia University, protesting the war. In May bloody student riots erupted in France, likely witnessed by the impressionable Mr. Sarkozy.
On June 3, Valerie Solanas shot Andy Warhol in a New York City loft. Two days later, Sirhan Sirhan assassinated Robert F. Kennedy Jr. In August, the Soviet Union occupied Czechoslovakia. Seven days later, antiwar demonstrators at the Democratic convention fought pitched battles with the Chicago police.
On Nov. 4, having absorbed all this, the people of the United States voted. They gave 43.4% of their vote to Richard Nixon and 42.7% to Hubert Humphrey. Alabama Gov. George Wallace got 13.5%. Four years later, George Wallace was shot while running for president. 1968 lasted a long time.
Whatever civic culture the U.S. had until the 1960s, it was now transformed. After '68, we had a new kind of political and social culture, pounding like a jackhammer into the older bedrock. The country cracked. Look at those 1968 popular vote numbers; half the country went left and half went right.
Read the entire piece.
Posted by Tom at 12:02 AM
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November 15, 2007
Edwards returns to demagoguery
After an effective television ad, the John Edwards campaign returns to Edwards' usual form of demagoguery against business interests in the ad below:
By the way, one of Edwards' proposed ways in which to force Congress to take action on his call of universal health care coverage won't fly.
Posted by Tom at 12:05 AM
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November 7, 2007
Bad judgment alert
As if corruption in the Texas Youth Commission, the bursting state prison system, reform of the judicial selection system, or reorganization of TSU isn't enough to keep Texas legislators occupied. Now, a local state legislator is teaming up with a colleague to confront a truly important issue -- that Texans are not going to be able to watch certain NFL football games on certain cable television networks:
Cable companies and the NFL Network are competing for Texas lawmakers' support in their national fight over whether cable customers should be charged extra for the football channel.While some cable companies have agreed to carry the network's eight regular-season games, Time Warner Cable, the largest in Texas, has not come to terms with the network.
Pressure has been mounting on all parties as the Dallas Cowboys' Nov. 29 matchup with the Green Bay Packers approaches. The game will only be shown on the NFL Network.
"I've had a lot more people contact me about NFL football the last two months instead of child protective services, windstorm insurance or worker's compensation, which are frankly more important issues," said Rep. Corbin Van Arsdale, R-Tomball. "I don't control what constituents call me about." [. . .]
Van Arsdale and Sen. Kim Brimer, R-Fort Worth, said last week that they would consider introducing consumer-oriented legislation in the 2009 session if the two sides don't reach an agreement.
"Cable companies need to focus on giving their customers what they want, which is football," Brimer said. [. . .]
Five Democratic members of the Texas House from Bexar County have sent letters to the Federal Communication Commission asking it to intercede in the argument.
Of course, all of these games are readily available on the Dish Network, so no consumer is prevented from buying that product if they want to see these NFL Network games bad enough. However, that doesn't stop the seemingly limitless amount of bad judgment in legislative circles over defining a legitimate legislative issue.
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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November 5, 2007
Edwards scores
I've criticized John Edwards over the years for his demagogic tendencies. However, I must admit that the video below by the Edwards campaign is darn effective. Don't you know that Team Hillary will be working on those debating skills in the coming weeks?
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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November 1, 2007
Speaking with authority
I swear, you can't make this stuff up.
On Tuesday morning, Ohio congressman and chronic Democratic Party presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich questioned President Bush's mental health:
"I seriously believe we have to start asking questions about his mental health," Kucinich, an Ohio congressman, said in an interview with The Philadelphia Inquirer's editorial board on Tuesday. "There's something wrong. He does not seem to understand his words have real impact."
On Tuesday evening during a debate between Democratic Party presidential candidates, Kucinich confirmed that he had once seen a UFO and that it was O.K. because former President Jimmy Carter once admitted that he had seen a UFO, too.
As the blog post notes, at least Carter didn't admit it on national television.
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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October 31, 2007
Mayor White's L.A. moment
Houston Mayor Bill White is capriciously manipulating local governmental power to sidetrack development of a condominium project (nicknamed the "Ashby high-rise") in a neighborhood where he raises a substantial political campaign funds. The incident has received some national attention through this Wall Street Journal ($) article, which somehow suggests that Houston's phenomenal growth over the past 50 years has been in spite of -- rather than because of -- the city's lack of zoning and liberal land use policies.
At any rate, it's really a sad reflection of the state of political discourse in Houston that the Mayor has been given a pass on undermining a project for the benefit of his campaign war chest. The property was valued and sold to the present owners on the assumption that a large-scale redevelopment would be built there and the owners followed all the city's rules and regulations in obtaining the necessary permits to proceed with construction. When a few wealthy neighbors of the development pulled Mayor White's chain, he blithely ordered one of the city's approvals to be revised to delay the development and now is attempting to ramrod two ordinances through city council to stop the project altogether.
In short, the developers invested a substantial amount of money in buying the property and followed the laws in preparing the large-scale redevelopment, dozens of which dot Houston's landscape. Mayor White and his friends don't like the development, so White is changing the laws. And this is political leadership?
At any rate, all of this reminded me of this excellent Virginia Postrel/Atlantic.com article that compares the radically different land use policies of Los Angeles, on one hand, and Dallas (which are quite similar to Houston's), on the other. Suffice it to say that the likes of Mayor White favor the Los Angeles approach over that of Dallas and Houston. Think about that the next time you vote for mayor.
Update: The website for the group opposing the project is here. A copy of the proposed "emergency" ordinance is here.
Update 2: A recent West U Examiner article on the project is here.
Posted by Tom at 12:05 AM
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October 4, 2007
The genesis of bad regulations
I'm not an advocate of using cell phones indiscrimately while driving. In fact, I try to avoid it as much as possible. But every few months or so, some media outlet passes along another superficial story (see also here) on the latest study or tragic story that supposedly suggests that use of cell phones while driving leads to accidents and, thus, should be outlawed.
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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September 17, 2007
Jane Fonda, global warmer
Freakonomics authors Stephen J. Dubner and Steven D. Levitt discover the not insubstantial impact that actress Jane Fonda has had on the United States' continued reliance on coal and other fossil fuels rather than clean and cheap nuclear energy.
Of course, Larry Ribstein has been writing about this phenomenom for years.
Posted by Tom at 12:05 AM
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September 6, 2007
Considering Giuliani
Daniel Drezner has an interesting recent observation about Rudy Giuliani's presidential bid:
Take this for what you will:Over the past month, I've had at least two dozen conversations with various people about Rudy Giuliani's presidential campaign. A lot of these people are Democrats, but there were a healthy number of Republicans and independents as well. These are all smart observers of politics who generally do not make knee-jerk assessments. The one common denominator was that, at some point, all of these people had lived in the New York City area while Rudy was mayor.
What is astonishing is that, despite the fact that this collection of individuals would likely disagree about pretty much everything, there was an airtight conensus about one and only one point:
A Giuliani presidency would be an unmitigated disaster for the United States. That is all.UPDATE: Commenters have reasonably asked the "why?" question. For some answers from New Yorkers, click here and here.
Here is my contribution on why Giuliani should not be elected president.
Posted by Tom at 12:05 AM
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September 4, 2007
You don't say?
This NY Times article reports on more research that goes into the "who needs a research project to prove that?" category:
. . . the broader question — whether police officers in some towns are motivated by fund-raising as well as safety when writing traffic tickets — has been examined systematically by others. Michael D. Makowsky, a doctoral student in economics, and Thomas Stratmann, an economics professor, both at George Mason University, studied the issue in a recent paper, “Political Economy at Any Speed: What Determines Traffic Citations?”They examined every warning and citation written by police officers in all of Massachusetts, excluding Boston, during a two-month period in 2001 — over 60,000 in all. Their conclusion wasn’t shocking to an economist: money matters, even in traffic violations. They found a statistical link between a town’s finances and the likelihood that its police officers would issue a speeding ticket. The details are a little sticky, but they show that tickets were issued more often in places that were short on cash, and that out-of-towners received tickets more often than drivers with local addresses.
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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August 10, 2007
Spitzer channels Dr. Phil
Has the mainstream media sentenced the Lord of Regulation to sensitivity training?
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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August 8, 2007
The cultural legacy of politicizing religion
The pastor of the local church that my family and I attend has used the pulpit from time to time to advocate political positions and certain politicians, which I have always viewed as a dubious practice. I was reminded of my pastor's sermons as I read this Cathy Young/ReasonOnline article on the questionable cultural legacy of the late Jerry Falwell:
Though the movement Falwell helped launch was unable to enact much of its agenda into law, there is no question that it transformed the American political landscape. Even the battles it hasn’t won, such as the effort to teach “intelligent design” in schools on a par with evolution, are still battles it was able to force on its opponents.More broadly, it helped create a climate in which the language of politics is saturated with references to God, a political culture in which a major political magazine (Newsweek) can ask a presidential candidate (Howard Dean) whether he believes in Jesus Christ as the son of God and the path to eternal life.
Despite these political inroads, Falwell’s brand of religious conservatism has suffered losses in the culture wars. Feminism, its radical excesses mostly discarded, has become firmly integrated into America’s cultural mainstream. (Even, apparently, in Falwell’s own family: His daughter is a surgeon.) Acceptance of gays is now at a level that would have been unthinkable in 1980. Sexual content in mainstream entertainment has steadily increased, and adults-only material is more available than ever thanks to new technologies. While divorce rates have dropped somewhat, so have marriage rates; in much of America, sex between single adults is widely accepted as a social norm.
Along those same lines, this CNN article reports on a Kentucky church's "Court Watch" program in which volunteers attend court hearings to monitor how judges are handling drug-related cases. It's clear that the members of the church group are not interested in facilitating leniency in sentencing in such cases.
Several years ago, while sweating a jury in a civil case at the courthouse, I attended the daily initial appearance docket call in the juvenile criminal court next door. It was a heartbreaking experience and prompted me to begin doing pro bono work in the local juvenile criminal justice system. Since then, I've attended numerous such initial appearance dockets in the juvenile criminal justice system. I have never seen a member of any Christian organization attending one of those dockets.
Posted by Tom at 12:10 AM
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August 4, 2007
Latest on the Las Vegas Monofail
With the crunch worsening over the past several weeks in the credit markets, the bankruptcy reorganization forces are gearing up and eyeing potential debtors. Well, in this Heartland blog post, Thomas A. Rubin predicts one of the probable debtors that will need serious reorganization -- the Las Vegas Monorail Company (prior posts here):
In short, the Las Vegas Monorail appears headed straight down the path to bankruptcy by approximately the year 2010 with nothing on the horizon that could prevent it – other than, perhaps, an ill-conceived government bailout or the absolute dumbest group of investors/suckers in recent financial history.This result should come as a surprise to no one. Over the last several decades, I know of only one U.S. rail transit system, or quasi-transit system, that has come remotely close to covering its operating costs out of fares and other operating revenues (the Seattle Monorail), and none that have made any contribution what-so-ever to capital costs. However, the Las Vegas Monorail promoters assured everyone that operating revenues would not only cover operating costs, but would also cover all the debt service costs of the bonds sold to pay for the construction of the Monorail. [. . .]
One hopes that someone, somewhere, in a public sector decision-making capacity will tell the various casinos along the right of way that, if they want to see it continue to operate, well, it is all theirs.
Read the entire post, which lays out the public risks involved in even a privately-financed boondoggle of this nature. Meanwhile, this clever Political Calculations post comes up with an entertaining solution to achieving the same benefits of a light rail system at a far cheaper cost.
Posted by Tom at 12:26 AM
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August 2, 2007
The Incarceration Nation
Following on this post from yesterday on a troubling growth sector in the burgeoning prison industry, Doug Berman points to this daunting Boston Review piece by Glenn C. Loury, the Merton P. Stoltz Professor of the Social Sciences in the Department of Economics at Brown University. Loury reviews the increasingly brutal nature of punishment in American society:
Crime rates peaked in 1992 and have dropped sharply since. Even as crime rates fell, however, imprisonment rates remained high and continued their upward march. The result, the current American prison system, is a leviathan unmatched in human history.According to a 2005 report of the International Centre for Prison Studies in London, the United States—with five percent of the world’s population—houses 25 percent of the world’s inmates. Our incarceration rate (714 per 100,000 residents) is almost 40 percent greater than those of our nearest competitors (the Bahamas, Belarus, and Russia). Other industrial democracies, even those with significant crime problems of their own, are much less punitive: our incarceration rate is 6.2 times that of Canada, 7.8 times that of France, and 12.3 times that of Japan. We have a corrections sector that employs more Americans than the combined work forces of General Motors, Ford, and Wal-Mart, the three largest corporate employers in the country, and we are spending some $200 billion annually on law enforcement and corrections at all levels of government, a fourfold increase (in constant dollars) over the past quarter century.
Never before has a supposedly free country denied basic liberty to so many of its citizens. In December 2006, some 2.25 million persons were being held in the nearly 5,000 prisons and jails that are scattered across America’s urban and rural landscapes. One third of inmates in state prisons are violent criminals, convicted of homicide, rape, or robbery. But the other two thirds consist mainly of property and drug offenders. Inmates are disproportionately drawn from the most disadvantaged parts of society. On average, state inmates have fewer than 11 years of schooling. They are also vastly disproportionately black and brown. [. . .]
Despite a sharp national decline in crime, American criminal justice has become crueler and less caring than it has been at any other time in our modern history. Why? [. . .]My recitation of the brutal facts about punishment in today’s America may sound to some like a primal scream at this monstrous social machine that is grinding poor black communities to dust. And I confess that these brutal facts do at times incline me to cry out in despair. But my argument is analytical, not existential. Its principal thesis is this: we law-abiding, middle-class Americans have made decisions about social policy and incarceration, and we benefit from those decisions, and that means from a system of suffering, rooted in state violence, meted out at our request. We had choices and we decided to be more punitive. Our society — the society we have made — creates criminogenic conditions in our sprawling urban ghettos, and then acts out rituals of punishment against them as some awful form of human sacrifice.
This situation raises a moral problem that we cannot avoid. We cannot pretend that there are more important problems in our society, or that this circumstance is the necessary solution to other, more pressing problems—unless we are also prepared to say that we have turned our backs on the ideal of equality for all citizens and abandoned the principles of justice. We ought to ask ourselves two questions: Just what manner of people are we Americans? And in light of this, what are our obligations to our fellow citizens—even those who break our laws?
There is much, much more. Take the time to read the entire piece.
Posted by Tom at 12:15 AM
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August 1, 2007
A disturbing growth industry
This New York Times article reports on one of the expensive consequences of the increasing criminalization of everything -- already overcrowded state prisons looking to export inmates:
Chronic prison overcrowding has corrections officials in Hawaii and at least seven other states looking increasingly across state lines for scarce prison beds, usually in prisons run by private companies. Facing a court mandate, California last week transferred 40 inmates to Mississippi and has plans for at least 8,000 to be sent out of state.The long-distance arrangements account for a small fraction of the country’s total prison population — about 10,000 inmates, federal officials estimate — but corrections officials in states with the most crowded prisons say the numbers are growing. One private prison company that houses inmates both in-state and out of state, the Corrections Corporation of America, announced last year that it would spend $213 million on construction and renovation projects for 5,000 prisoners by next year. [. . .]
But while the out-of-state transfers are helping states that have been unwilling, or too slow, to build enough prisons of their own, they have also raised concerns among some corrections officials about excessive prisoner churn, consistency among the private vendors and safety in some prisons.
Moving inmates from prison to prison disrupts training and rehabilitation programs and puts stress on tenuous family bonds, corrections officials say, making it more difficult to break the cycle of inmates committing new crimes after their release. Several recidivism studies have found that convicts who keep in touch with family members through visits and phone privileges are less likely to violate their parole or commit new offenses. There have been no studies that focused specifically on out-of-state placements.
See related earlier posts here and here. By the way, if you are interested in understanding the main reason why we are dealing with this seemingly endless cycle of criminalization and imprisonment, then check out the clever minute and a half video below for the answer:
Scott Henson, the Texas blogger-expert on prison overcrowding, has more here.
Update: Has America become the Incarceration Nation?
Posted by Tom at 12:15 AM
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John Edwards, demagogue
Democratic Party presidential candidate John Edwards has been a frequent topic on this blog, but it's rare that his special style of demagoguery is captured as succiently as in this video of a bit over a minute. I don't know what's more disturbing -- Edwards' rantings, the audience's unquestioning acceptance of them, or the fact that the Edwards campaign is promoting the video as an example of Edwards' charm.
Posted by Tom at 12:10 AM
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July 25, 2007
A bully exposed
As noted in this post from a couple of weeks ago, more than a few folks are not losing any sleep over the fact that former crusading state attorney general and current New York Governor Eliot Spitzer is having trouble getting along with with his new playmates in Albany.
But now things are getting even more interesting. According to a report issued yesterday by Andrew Cuomo, Spitzer's successor as New York AG (and perhaps as governor sooner than we thought), Spitzer's aides used the state police to gather information about whether Spitzer’s chief political rival, Joseph Bruno, improperly used state-owned aircraft for political purposes. To make matters worse, when the improper use of state police was revealed, Spitzer’s communications director, Darren Dopp, concocted a false story as to why the aides sought the information. Although the Cuomo report concluded that the aides’ conduct was “not unlawful,” Spitzer suspended Dopp and conceded at a press conference that his administration had “grossly mishandled” the situation. And all this occurred despite the fact that Cuomo's report was not thoroughly prepared.
Spitzer has a lot of experience in the area of "grossly mishandling" situations. OpinionJounal notes the same thing.
The irony of Spitzer's plight has generated quite a few entertaining blog post titles around the blogosphere, the best of which are Ellen Podgor's (she of "Busted for Yoga" fame) "Spitzer Spitzered" and Nathan Koppel's "Spitzer Schadenfreude." Seems as if Spitzer is redefining the bully pulpit.
Posted by Tom at 12:11 AM
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July 23, 2007
Dalrymple on Tony Blair
The recent resignation of U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair provides an opportunity for British psychiatrist and author, Anthony Daniels (who writes under the pen name of Theodore Dalrymple), to provide this interesting early appraisal of the Blair years:
There undoubtedly were things to be grateful for during the Blair years. His support for American policy in Iraq won him much sympathy in the U.S., of course. He was often eloquent in defense of liberty. And under Mr. Blair's leadership, Britain enjoyed 10 years of uninterrupted economic growth, leaving large parts of the country prosperous as never before. London became one of the world's richest cities, vying with New York to be the global economy's financial center. Mr. Blair did inherit a strapping economy from his predecessor, and he left its management more or less to the man who succeeds him, Gordon Brown. Still, unlike previous Labour prime ministers, he did not preside over an economic crisis: in itself, something to be proud of.But how history will judge him overall, and whether it will absolve him (to adapt slightly a phrase coined by a famous, though now ailing, Antillean dictator), is another matter [. . .]
Tony Blair was the perfect politician for an age of short attention spans. What he said on one day had no necessary connection with what he said on the following day: and if someone pointed out the contradiction, he would use his favorite phrase, "It's time to move on," as if detecting contradictions in what he said were some kind of curious psychological symptom in the person detecting them.
Many have surmised that there was an essential flaw in Mr. Blair's makeup that turned him gradually from the most popular to the most unpopular prime minister of recent history. The problem is to name that essential flaw. As a psychiatrist, I found this problem peculiarly irritating (bearing in mind that it is always highly speculative to make a diagnosis at a distance). But finally, a possible solution arrived in a flash of illumination. Mr. Blair suffered from a condition previously unknown to me: delusions of honesty.
Check out the entire op-ed. It's worth the time.
Posted by Tom at 12:20 AM
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July 16, 2007
Fair tax?
Greg Mankiw provides this particularly lucid analysis of the current status of the progressive U.S. income tax system. Keep it handy when listening to the demagoguery over tax rates that will take place during the upcoming 2008 Presidential campaign.
Posted by Tom at 4:05 AM
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July 13, 2007
The McCain meltdown
The fellows over at Professors R-Squared are having a rather fun time chronicling the remarkably quick demise of the John McCain Presidential Campaign (see here and here). But the best line on the McCain campaign meltdown still came from Jay Leno earlier in the week:
"Sen. John Edwards began what he's calling his poverty tour today. He's visiting people who have no money and no hope. His first stop: John McCain's campaign headquarters."
Posted by Tom at 12:45 AM
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Myths of the war
My nephew Richard and I had a good laugh about the new Homeland Security Threat Level on the left that resulted from Michael Chertoff's ill-advised warning regarding the terror threat from earlier in the week. But kidding aside, following on this earlier post regarding James Fallows' Atlantic Monthly piece, this Steve Chapman RCP op-ed provides a level-headed analysis of the actual threat of an attack from Islamic fascists and the counterproductive nature of the Bush Administration's characterization of the conflict as a global "war on terror." Check it out.
Posted by Tom at 12:19 AM
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July 11, 2007
Spitzer is suffering?
So New York Governor Eliot Spitzer and his family just don't know whether the rough and tumble nature of politics at the state level of New York is worth the severe emotional toll.
I wonder what Theodore Sihpol, Hank Greenberg, John Whitehead, Richard Grasso and Kenneth Langone, among others, think about that?
Posted by Tom at 4:05 AM
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June 12, 2007
How the Presidents stack up
This Wall Street Journal Online provides this nifty graphic overview of the approval ratings of all U.S. presidents since Truman. Take a few minutes to check it out and enjoy the surprises of a quick history refresher. For example, I had forgotten about the length of the bounce in President Carter's approval ratings after the Iranian hostage crisis began in late 1979. Of course, that bounce didn't last as the hostage crisis dragged on for over a year, contributing substantially to Carter's loss to Ronald Reagan in the 1980 election.
Posted by Tom at 4:05 AM
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June 8, 2007
Snow Fall
Robin Moroney over at The Wall Street Journal's Informed Reader blog picks up on this interesting Ken Dermota/Atlantic ($) article that reports on the weird economics relating to the demand, the supply and the price of cocaine:
Demand for cocaine stays steady, Colombia’s coca fields are destroyed, yet the drug’s street price in the U.S. continues to fall . . . [as] drug smugglers and dealers have eked out efficiencies in their operations to keep their prices low. The U.S. Coast Guard has been able to catch only a small percentage of the drugs entering the country since President Nixon declared a “war on drugs” in 1971. In 2000, the U.S. decided to switch tactics and take the fight to Colombia, which produces 90% of the cocaine sold in the U.S. Since then, it has spent $4.7 billion fighting rebels who grow and sell the crop, as well as spraying coca fields from the air.The price of cocaine—the pure version, not crack—has kept falling. In the early 1980s, the price of a gram of cocaine was about $600. By the late 1990s the price had fallen to about $200. According to the Drug Enforcement Administration, the street price of a gram of cocaine in 2005 was $20-$25 in New York, $30-$100 in Los Angeles and $100-$125 in Denver.
Some of the price decrease has come from more efficient distribution networks. Some New York smugglers have chosen to eliminate the middleman and pick up their drugs directly from Colombia, offering “factory-to-you” prices. The surging trade with Mexico has increased the nooks and crannies for drugs to be hidden as they cross the border, making smuggling both safer and cheaper.
Labor costs also have decreased. Street vendors take a smaller cut of the drug’s proceeds. A lot of the drug dealers who fell prey to an aggressive imprisonment campaign in the 1990s are now leaving prison. Their felony conviction and minimal job experience means they have few other ways to make money and are willing to take a pay cut.
The falling street price also reflects the lower risk of handling the drug. The violence of the 1980s crack boom has faded and, since 2001, federal drug prosecutions have fallen 25% as agents get diverted to the hunt for terrorists.
While the Atlantic article focuses on why the price of cocaine continues to drop even though the supply sources are declining, what's particularly interesting is that the demand for cocaine is not rising dramatically as the price declines. Given its addictive nature, it makes sense that the demand for cocaine would be somewhat price inelastic, but it seems logical that demand would increase at least to some extent as the price falls. This does not appear to be happening. Sounds like a good exam question for an economics course.
Posted by Tom at 4:14 AM
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It's not been a good week for federal agencies
First, it was the dubious decision of the Federal Trade Commission to sue to enjoin the proposed merger between natural foods grocers Whole Foods Markets and Wild Oats Markets.
Then, as this Daniel Drezner post notes, Federal Communications Commission chairman Kevin Martin chose a rather interesting way to criticize the Second Circuit Court of Appeals decision this week striking down the FCC's policy governing "fleeting expletives" on television.
So it goes in the wacky world of governmental regulation.
Posted by Tom at 4:07 AM
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June 7, 2007
Giuliani's hypocrisy
Doug Berman notes that Rudy Giuliani thinks that Scooter Libby got a raw deal. That is unquestionably correct, but what Giuliani failed to mention is that he is one of the politicians primarily responsible for the culture of criminalization that gobbles up productive citizens such as Libby.
As noted earlier here and here, Giuliani's politically-motivated prosecution of Michael Milken and related destruction of Drexel Burnham during the late 1980's ignited the criminalization of business interests that reached its peak with the destruction of Arthur Andersen, the prosecution of former Enron executives Jeff Skilling and Ken Lay last year and the ongoing trial of former Hollinger CEO Conrad Black this year. Indeed, the Bush Administration's willingness to toss business interests into the cauldron of internecine criminal prosecutions for transient political purposes has largely undermined the Republican Party's credibility in challenging the motives of dubious white collar prosecutions of businesspersons or politicians.
And lest you think that rich and powerful people are the only ones affected by what Giuliani has helped wrought, remember the name of Lisa Jones. As Daniel Fischel brilliantly explains in his book Payback: The Conspiracy to Destroy Michael Milken and his Financial Revolution (Harper-Collins 1995), Jones is a remarkable American success story -- a teenage runaway and high school dropout who worked her way up through the ranks of Drexel to become the top assistant to one of Drexel's most successful traders. Giuliani threatened to indict Jones in an effort to get her to turn on Milken (sound familiar?), but Jones refused to give in and remained loyal to Milken and Drexel to the end. Giuliani eventually prosecuted and convicted Jones for crimes that were never proven (sound familiar?) and she was sentenced to a year and a half in prison, later reduced to ten months. Other than Milken, Jones was the only longtime employee of Drexel Burnham who ever spent time in prison.
I don't know about you, but that's not the political legacy I'm looking for in a presidential candidate.
Posted by Tom at 4:15 AM
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Ron Paul shines on The Daily Show
Republican Congressman and GOP Presidential candidate Ron Paul from the Houston area exhibits a deft media touch while handling an interview by Jon Stewart of The Daily Show.
Banjo Jones must be proud.
Paul's political warts and quirks -- and there are many -- will become exposed as the campaign wears on. However, his willingness to speak his mind -- a rarity in American Presidential campaigns -- is refreshing.
Posted by Tom at 4:10 AM
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June 2, 2007
Edwardsian demagoguery
As if on cue after this post from yesterday, Democratic Presidential candidate John Edwards is engaging in his usual brand of demagogery (earlier examples here):
Democratic presidential hopeful John Edwards says a wave of mergers in the oil industry should be investigated by the Justice Department to see what impact they have had on soaring gasoline prices.During a campaign stop in Silicon Valley Thursday, Edwards planned to berate the oil industry for "anticompetitive actions" and outline an energy plan he says would reduce oil imports "and get us on a path to be virtually petroleum-free within a generation."
"Vertically integrated companies like Exxon Mobil own every step of the production process -- from extraction to refining to sale at the pump, enabling them to foreclose competition," says an outline of Edward's energy plan.
Now, you can peruse the "Economics-Energy Prices" category archive of this blog and find many credible resources that utterly debunk Edwards' theory regarding the cause of rising gasoline prices. But Andrew Morriss, one of Larry Ribstein's colleagues at the University of Illinois College of Law, provides this handy SSRN paper in which he cogently explains that governmental interference with gasoline markets has a far larger impact on gasoline prices than anything Exxon Mobil does:
Rising gasoline prices have brought energy issues back to the forefront of public policy debates. Gasoline markets today are the result of almost a hundred years of conflicting regulatory policies, which have left them dangerously fragmented. In this article, I analyze that regulatory history, highlighting the unintended consequences of regulation that have pushed the United States into a series of loosely connected regional markets rather than a broad, deep national market. This fragmentation leaves the American economy is vulnerable to natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and foreign dictators in ways that it need not be. It also produces higher prices for consumers and reduced innovation by refiners.
TigerHawk understands, too.
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM
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June 1, 2007
What is it about John Edwards?
Presidential politics is outside the usual scope of this blog, but Democratic candidate John Edwards is a lawyer and was so underwhelming as the 2004 Democratic Vice-Presidential candidate that he became a fairly regular topic with his frequent gaffes. Well, along those lines, in this article in this week's Time magazine, former Kerry campaign advisor Bob Shrum new book is previewed and here's some of what Shrum has to say about Kerry's first meeting with John Edwards when he was considering him as the VP candidate:
Kerry talked with several potential picks, including Gephardt and Edwards. He was comfortable after his conversations with Gephardt, but even queasier about Edwards after they met. Edwards had told Kerry he was going to share a story with him that he'd never told anyone else—that after his son Wade had been killed, he climbed onto the slab at the funeral home, laid there and hugged his body, and promised that he'd do all he could to make life better for people, to live up to Wade's ideals of service. Kerry was stunned, not moved, because, as he told me later, Edwards had recounted the same exact story to him, almost in the exact same words, a year or two before—and with the same preface, that he'd never shared the memory with anyone else. Kerry said he found it chilling . . . [. . .]Kerry also wanted a specific reassurance. He asked Edwards for a commitment that if he was chosen and the ticket lost, Edwards wouldn't run against him in 2008. Edwards agreed "absolutely," as Kerry recalled him saying. If Kerry had shared this at the time, I would have told him what I did later: it was naive to think he could rely on a promise like that.
Shrum also alleges that Edwards told him that wanted to vote against the Iraq War, but didn't do so because he thought it would hurt his career.
Now, Shrum has not been the most successful political advisor, so perhaps these allegations should be taken with a grain of salt as the sour grapes of a bitter man with an ax to grind. But much of it sure seems consistent with what was revealed about Edwards during the 2004 campaign. Given his lackluster performance during the 2004 campaign, and now with a former prominent Democratic Party advisor throwing him under the campaign bus, how does Edwards remain a serious political candidate?
Perhaps the answer lies somewhere in this development.
Posted by Tom at 4:10 AM
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May 31, 2007
Mapping political contributions
This is interesting. Maplight.org is a new Web site that attempts to correlate lawmakers’ voting records with the money they’ve accepted from special interest groups. Other sites such as OpenSecrets.org provide information on the source of candidates financing, but to my knowledge, Maplight.org is the first site that attempts to establish the relationship between money given and votes actually cast.
Click the "Video Tour" button on the home page and the site takes you through a six-minute video that illustrates the site's purpose. In deliberating on the U. S.- Oman Free Trade Agreement, the video reveals that special interests in favor of the bill -- such as pharmaceutical companies and aircraft manufacturers -- gave each senator an average of $244,000. On the other hand, lobbyists for the anti-poverty and consumer groups that opposed the bill could generate only $38,000 per senator. Under the "Timeline of Contributions" button, you can see that the contributions increased during the six weeks leading up to the vote and a hyperlink is provided to the name of each member of Congress so that you can see how much money each legislator received.
Oh yeah, in case you had any question about it, the bill passed. ;^)
Maplight.org is not particularly user-friendly, but the folks who designed the website are still adding features and data to the site. It's definitely worth plugging around for awhile and checking back in on from time to time. As they say in the smoke-filled rooms, it's always good to know who is for sale in Washington. ;^)
Posted by Tom at 4:15 AM
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April 25, 2007
Go Barney Go!
Barney Frank, that conflicted anti-business Congressional crusader (see here and here) who is nevertheless challenging the federal government's ludicrous prohibition of internet gambling, has decided to introduce legislation to overturn the prohibition, and he thinks it has a chance of passing.
Good for Barney. But how sad is it that Rep. Frank -- who is essentially a socialist with regard to economics, business and big government issues -- is one of the only national politicians who is willing to advocate reasonable and common sense restraints on the federal government's prosecutorial power against business interests?
Posted by Tom at 4:30 AM
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April 22, 2007
Protecting the Metroplex from the evils of poker
This post from late last year reported on the dubious policy of the Dallas Police Department to deploy SWAT teams to bust peaceful poker games. To update that precarious state of affairs, Radley Balko passes along this long email from a fellow who was arrested during one of the raids, even though he was simply chopping veggies for the gamblers to eat. The following is a glimpse of what occurred during the raid:
The raid occurred around 7:40 p.m. I was in the kitchen area which was just inside the front door when suddenly there was loud banging from the door. Within seconds, the room was full of Dallas SWAT officers yelling for everyone to put their hands in the air. Behind the Dallas SWAT team came many more law enforcement officers and several camera crews for the A&E reality show, Dallas SWAT. The camera crew’s chests were clearly marked as “A&E Film Crew.”Bear in mind that, prior to police entering, the place was virtually quiet. There was the sound of poker chips in the air, but not much else. The players were essentially professionals and working stiffs having fun…there were doctors, lawyers, accountants, and other professionals. There was hardly anything “dangerous” about the place at all. In fact, the cops found no weapons in the facility or on anyone there. The show of force and weaponry brought by the cops was simply outrageous and unjustified, given the circumstances, but, then again, are they enforcing the law or making a TV show?
Read the entire post. Feel safer?
Posted by Tom at 12:01 PM
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April 18, 2007
Thoughts on the tragedy at Virginia Tech
Sympathy was not enough at the time of Columbine, and eight years later it is not enough. What is needed, urgently, is stronger controls over the lethal weapons that cause such wasteful carnage and such unbearable loss.
The Virginia Tech tragedy reminds me, sadly, of what John Lott said in his article that I posted a few days ago. He said students were sitting ducks because of college gun laws. If only one student had been carrying a gun -- and guys in Blacksburg know how to handle guns -- it might have been very different.
The simple truth is that Americans themselves remain unwilling to take drastic measures to restrict gun availability. This is rooted deep in the American belief in individual freedom and a powerful suspicion of government. Americans are deeply leery of efforts by government to restrict the freedom to defend themselves. A sizeable minority, perhaps a majority, believe the risk that criminals will perpetrate events such as yesterday’s is a painful but necessary price to pay to protect that freedom.
William Anderson, commenting on Columbine after the 9/11 attacks, but equally applicable to Virginia Tech:
When the police arrived after hearing reports of a massacre under way inside Columbine High School, they did not storm the building to catch the criminals. Instead, these heavily armed officers, wearing their famous coalscuttle helmets, surrounded the outside of the school, "sealing the perimeter," according to their spokesmen.Inside the high school, Eric Harris and Dylan Kliebold were running freely through the halls, merrily killing and wounding unarmed teachers and students as they tried to escape. In the end, the police didn’t even have to fire a shot, as the two miscreants ended their own lives. Thus, people were treated to a worthless show of force by the authorities, which did almost nothing to save anyone caught in the building.
David Kopel channels that thought in this WSJ ($) op-ed:
At Virginia Tech's sprawling campus in southwestern Va., the local police arrived at the engineering building a few minutes after the start of the murder spree, and after a few critical minutes, broke through the doors that Cho Seung-Hui had apparently chained shut. From what we know now, Cho committed suicide when he realized he'd soon be confronted by the police. But by then, 30 people had been murdered.But let's take a step back in time. Last year the Virginia legislature defeated a bill that would have ended the "gun-free zones" in Virginia's public universities. At the time, a Virginia Tech associate vice president praised the General Assembly's action "because this will help parents, students, faculty and visitors feel safe on our campus." In an August 2006 editorial for the Roanoke Times, he declared: "Guns don't belong in classrooms. They never will. Virginia Tech has a very sound policy preventing same."
Actually, Virginia Tech's policy only made the killer safer, for it was only the law-abiding victims, and not the criminal, who were prevented from having guns. Virginia Tech's policy bans all guns on campus (except for police and the university's own security guards); even faculty members are prohibited from keeping guns in their cars.
Few differences are as clarifying as attitudes towards "gun control". (The quotation marks give me away.) (1) Control advocates trust the authorities to protect us -- and to somehow enforce gun control (consider long-standing attempts at heroin control and consider how carefully the DMV screens auto drivers); and (2) Gun control advocates cannot distinguish between the gun and the owner. Mere access makes us all equally dangerous. I have problems with both thought patterns.
And even amidst the terrible carnage, courage and humanity still shine:
A 76-year-old Jewish-Romanian lecturer was hailed a hero after blocking his classroom door long enough for many of his students to escape the Virginia Tech gunman, before being shot dead.Liviu Librescu, a Holocaust survivor, pressed himself against the door of the classroom while shots were fired in the corridor and surrounding rooms. He stood firm, attempting to barricade the door, while his students clambered out of the windows.
The last person to see Professor Liviu Librescu alive appears to have been Alec Calhoun, a student at Virginia Tech who turned as he prepared to leap from a high classroom window to see the elderly academic holding shut the classroom door. The student jumped, and lived. Minutes later, the professor was shot dead.
There is no meaningful distinction between one relative’s grief and another’s sorrow as the bereaved converge on Blacksburg from as near as Roanoke and as far as India. But it is worth reflecting on the significance of Professor Librescu’s life of quiet heroism, which encompassed the Holocaust, a career of internationally admired teaching and research, and a final act of sacrifice that saved at least nine other lives.
The son of Romanian Jewish parents, he was sent to a Soviet labour camp as a boy after his father was deported by the Nazis. He was repatriated to communist Romania only to be forced out of academia there for his Israeli sympathies. A personal intervention by Menachem Begin enabled him to emigrate with his wife to Israel, from where he visited the US on a sabbatical in 1986, and chose to stay. The appalling ironies of his murder by a crazed student after a life of such fortitude and generosity will not be lost on anyone who hears his story.
Yet neither should those who mourn him forget the role that America played in his life. As for so many other survivors of the mid-20th century’s genocidal convulsions, the US was for this inspiring teacher both a beacon of hope and a welcoming new home. Founded on the idea of liberty, it also made, for him, a reality of that idea. Let those he saved now make the most of it.
Update: The NY Times has more on Professor Librescu here.
Posted by Tom at 4:15 AM
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April 10, 2007
Washington's biggest business
The Washington Post has just concluded this 27 installment series over the past couple of months on lobbying in Washington, D.C. Although not particularly analytical in terms of evaluating the costs and benefits of lobbying, the series is well worth reading as a thorough review of the enormous growth of the business over the past generation. The following is from the final installment:
As the reach of the federal government extended into more corners of American life, opportunities for lobbyists proliferated. . . Over these three decades the amount of money spent on Washington lobbying increased from tens of millions to billions a year. The number of free-lance lobbyists offering services to paying clients has grown from scores to thousands. [Lobbyist Gerald S.J.] Cassidy was one of the first to become a millionaire by lobbying; he now has plenty of company.The term "lobbyist" does not do full justice to the complex status of today's most successful practitioners, who can play the roles of influence peddlers, campaign contributors and fundraisers, political advisers, restaurateurs, benefactors of local cultural and charitable institutions, country gentlemen and more. They have helped make greater Washington one of the wealthiest regions in America.
The entire series is here.
Posted by Tom at 4:20 AM
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March 26, 2007
The Gonzales affair
I leave to the political blogs the current spat over former Houstonian and current Attorney General Alberto Gonzales' handling of the firing of eight U.S. Attorneys from various parts of the country, but I did chuckle over Jay Leno's comment from one of his monolouge's from late last week:
President Bush held a news conference where he accused the Democrats of playing politics with the firing of the U.S. attorneys. You know, the attorneys he fired for not playing politics.
I don't know enough about the facts of this affair to make an informed judgment on what ought to be done. However, it does occur to me that the President should be a bit troubled that his Attorney General does not know how to fire some subordinates properly. The database of emails relating to the firings is here.
Posted by Tom at 4:20 AM
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March 9, 2007
Levinson and Balkin on the Dred Scott case
Longtime University of Texas Law Professor Sandy Levinson has teamed up with Jack Balkin of Balkinization fame to author a new SSRN paper, 13 Ways of Looking at Dred Scott. For a provocative abstract, check the following out:
Dred Scott v. Sanford is a classic case that is relevant to almost every important question of contemporary constitutional theory.Dred Scott connected race to social status, to citizenship, and to being a part of the American people. One hundred fifty years later these connections still haunt us; and the twin questions of who is truly American and who American belongs to still roil our national debates.
Dred Scott is a case about threats to national security and whether the Constitution is a suicide pact. It concerns whether the Constitution follows the flag and whether constitutional rights obtain in federally held lands overseas. And it asks whether, as Chief Justice Taney famously said of blacks, there are indeed some people who have no rights we Americans are bound to respect.
Dred Scott remains the most salient example in debates over the legitimacy of substantive due process. It subverts our intuitions about the relative merits of originalism and living constitutionalism. It symbolizes the problem of constitutional evil and the question whether responsibility for great injustices lies in the Constitution itself or in the judges who apply it.
Finally, Dred Scott encapsulates the central problems of judicial review in a constitutional democracy. On the one hand, Dred Scott raises perennial questions about the judicial role in cases of profound moral and political disagreement, and about judicial responsibility for the backlash and political upheaval that may result from judicial review. On the other hand, the political context of the Dred Scott decision suggests that the Supreme Court rarely strays far from the wishes of the dominant national political coalition. It raises the unsettling possibility that, given larger social and political forces, what courts do in highly contested cases is far less important than we imagine.
Posted by Tom at 4:47 AM
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March 7, 2007
The politics of destruction
In this International Herald Tribune article, Michael Oxley -- the "Oxley" of the Sarbanes-Oxley corporate governance statute -- confirms the vacuous nature of the politicians who passed that destructive law and encouraged the destruction of Arthur Andersen and various Enron executives:
Presiding over a recent dinner in Paris for more than 200 accountants, Oxley -- the former Republican congressman from Ohio and co-author of the Sarbanes-Oxley corporate governance law -- was asked during the question period whether he realized he had helped create one of the most crushing financial burdens ever imposed on business.Was Oxley aware, his questioners asked, that the law that he and Senator Paul Sarbanes, a Maryland Democrat, rushed onto the books five years ago after the collapse of Enron and WorldCom had contributed to a sharp decline in listings on U.S. stock exchanges? And, knowing what he knows now about the cost and effects of the law, would Oxley -- who retired in January after 25 years in Congress -- have done it any differently?
"Absolutely," Oxley answered. "Frankly, I would have written it differently, and he would have written it differently," he added, referring to Sarbanes. "But it was not normal times." [. . .]
"Everybody felt like Rome was burning," Oxley, 62, recalled during an interview after the dinner in Paris. "People felt like they were getting cheated. It was unlike anything I had ever seen in Congress in 25 years in terms of the heat from the body politic. And all the members were feeling it."
Until that moment, a bill to tighten corporate controls had been languishing in the Congress for years, held back by lobbying by big business. But suddenly, the impetus was there, and the firestorm led Oxley, then head of the House committee that oversees America's financial services industry, to quickly push forward a solution based on that measure to calm the hysteria of voters.[ . . .]
in the summer of 2002, with pressure also mounting from the administration of President George W. Bush, there was no question that the bill needed to be pushed through, however imperfect.
"The president called Paul and I down to the White House almost immediately after the Senate passed its bill, 97 to 0" on July 15, Oxley recalled.
"I remember it was in the Cabinet Room and you could see the pressure he was under because the Democrats were pressing his relationship with 'Kenny boy'" -- a reference to Kenneth Lay, the chief executive of Enron, who had sought help from the administration to avoid a bankruptcy filing in the weeks before the giant energy trading company collapsed.
"The president basically said, 'Get this wrapped up,'" Oxley said. The House and Senate quickly agreed on a new draft, and Bush signed the bill into law on July 30. [. . .]
A month later, Arthur Andersen, the accounting firm that had been convicted of obstructing the government's investigation into the collapse of Enron, declared bankruptcy after 89 years in business, crushed by Enron-related liabilities.
The Andersen prosecution was "a White House decision," Oxley said. "They had to really look tough and so they decided at the highest levels they were just going to give the death penalty to Arthur Andersen."
"I think at the end of the day virtually anyone would agree it was a terrible decision, because you eliminated a major accounting firm," he added, "and you just sent a chill through the accounting industry."
Read the entire article. Yet another example of the legislative overreaction to a perceived problem being far worse than the problem itself.
Posted by Tom at 4:50 AM
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March 1, 2007
Al Gore's big utility bill
Drudge and parts of the political blogosphere made a big deal out of Al Gore's supposed hypocrisy in personally consuming more than average amounts of energy while advocating conservation of energy to reduce global warming. But my sense is that James H. Joyner, Jr. has the right perspective on Gore's energy usage:
Regardless of what Al Gore preaches about these matters, the way he lives strikes me as reasonable. He was of the manor born, to be sure, but he has earned a lot of money on his own. He has every right to a ginormous house, a fleet of cars, and to be flown around the world in private planes to speak out against the dangers of global warming. While it’s funny in microcosm, it strikes me as a perfectly defensible trade-off to use a thousand times more energy than the average guy in an effort to influence macro-level energy and environmental policy.Where Gore and I differ is that my aim is for more people to get to live like Gore. While environmental degradation in general and global warming in particular are real problems, certainly a serious case can be made that they pale in comparison with the ravages of poverty. Further, if millions of people not starving to death isn’t its own reward, UC-Berkeley professor emeritus of energy and resources Jack Hollander explains in The Real Environmental Crisis: Why Poverty, Not Affluence, Is the Environment’s Number One Enemy, that, contrary to conventional wisdom, as societies become more affluent, they produce less pollution. That’s not particularly surprising, when you think about it, as those whose basic human needs are met have both the inclination and resources to worry about cleaning up their environment.
Read the entire piece.
Posted by Tom at 4:11 AM
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February 27, 2007
Barack Obama's questionable economics
The exceedingly clear thinking Thomas Sowell (earlier posts here and here) is reviewing Democratic Party Presidential candidate Barack Obama's positions on economic policy and doesn't much like what he sees:
Senator Barack Obama recently said, "let's allow our unions and their organizers to lift up this country's middle class again."Ironically, he said it at a time when Detroit automakers have been laying off unionized workers by the tens of thousands, while Toyota has been hiring tens of thousands of non-union American automobile workers. [. . .]
Senator Obama is being hailed as the newest and freshest face on the American political scene. But he is advocating some of the oldest fallacies, just as if it was the 1960s again, or as if he has learned nothing and forgotten nothing since then. [. . .]
Senator Obama is not unique among politicians who want to control prices, as if that is controlling the underlying reality behind the prices. [. . .]
The underlying reality that politicians do not want to face is that here, too, prices convey a reality that is not subject to political control. . .
One of the hardest things for politicians to resist is indulging most voters' tendency to believe economic fallacies. Unfortunately, most politicos do the easy thing and give the voters what they want to hear. That is probably a good approach to getting elected, but it's a lousy one for governing.
Posted by Tom at 4:01 AM
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February 19, 2007
More on the outrage that is the Harris County Jail
Even as things change in Harris County government, the chronic problems of the Harris County Jail remain the same.
A Houston Chronicle review of state and county records reveals that from January 2001 through December 2006, at least 101 inmates — an average of about 17 a year — have died while in the custody of the Harris County Jail. In 2006 alone, after three consecutive years of failing to be in compliance with state standards, the jail recorded 22 in-custody deaths.At the time of their deaths, at least 72 of the inmates — more than 70 percent — were awaiting court hearings and had yet to be convicted of the crimes that led to their incarceration.
Records and interviews show that almost one-third of the deaths involve questions of inadequate responses from guards and staff, failure by jail officials to provide inmates with essential medical and psychiatric care and medications, unsanitary conditions, and two allegations of physical abuse by guards.
In at least 13 cases, relatives or documents raise questions over whether inmates received needed medications prior to their deaths. Additionally, 11 of the deaths involve infections and illnesses suggesting sanitation problems. In 10 other cases, death reports suggest possible neglect, . . . [ . . .]
Prisoners also claim they have been forced to sleep on mattresses on cellblock floors — sometimes next to toilets. They maintain that the crowded living conditions at the jail are ripe for disease and bacteria, particularly methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, or staph, a potentially lethal blood infection.
As a result, numerous inmates contend they have contracted staph infections while incarcerated. Jail records show that between January 2001 and April 2005, there were 60 medical quarantines at the jail. The records show at least two of the quarantines were related to staph infections. The causes of 11 other quarantines are not listed.
Apparently with the exception of the Harris County Commissioners, most everyone agrees that something needs to be done about the Harris County Jail. Yet, as has been the case for the almost 30 years now that I've been practicing law in Houston, while most everyone agrees, nothing ever gets done.
Government generally -- and Harris County government in particular -- is responsive to those constituencies that wield political power. Prisoners have no political power and are generally unpopular with those who do. Inasmuch as most voters never set foot in a jail and have no first-hand experience of the abysmal conditions, it is easy to understand why nothing is ever done about this outrage, at least from a political standpoint.
But that doesn't make the condition of the Harris County Jail any easier to stomach. At a time when Governor Perry is bowing to the powerful political forces that want to build even more prisons, it's high time that voters realize the scam that state and local politicians have foisted on them in bowing to the powerful political forces that support the endless cycle of building more and more prisons. The problem with the Harris County Jail is largely the result of too many non-violent or petty criminals being locked up there for too long. Until the politicians do the hard work necessary to reform the barbaric policies that have caused that condition, the jail problem is unlikely to change. Kudos to the Chronicle for keeping this problem on the frontburner. Charles Kuffner and Burnt Orange Report have more.
Posted by Tom at 4:03 AM
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January 17, 2007
The struggle of recovery made worse
Although the Bush Administration's troubles in devising and implementing a workable strategy for bringing civil order to Baghdad receives most of the mainstream's media attention, the failure of government to facilitate order in New Orleans and rebuilding throughout the Hurricane Katrina-ravaged Gulf Coast region is a more appalling failure (earlier post here).
It's not as if my expectations for government in the New Orleans region are all that high -- I'd be satisfied with ensuring law and order, making sure that basic services are provided and creating an environment where entreprenuers will take the risk of starting businesses that will create badly-needed jobs for the residents of the area. In this NY Times article, Adam Nossiter continues his series of excellent series of articles over the past year regarding the failure of the local and state governments in New Orleans to ensure law and order and the devastating effect that failure is having on the region.
Meanwhile, in another not as well-reported failure of government, this NY Times article reports on the Oreck Corporation's decision to move its maufacturing facility and 500 jobs from the Gulf Coast region of Mississippi to Tennessee, in large part because of the company's difficulties in arranging insurance for its operations in Mississippi. As Ted Frank observes, the lack of insurance coverage is the direct result of Mississippi courts expansion of the coverage of insurance contracts beyond their plain terms and the state legislature's response to those court decisions, which "has [made] things worse: criticize the businesses who have left, and seek to further regulate the price of insurance, despite thousands of years of evidence that limiting the price will reduce the amount supplied and lead to shortages."
But at least the region has (for this season anyway) a good professional football team, which continues to exist in New Orleans only because local and state governments in Louisiana found the time and resources to arrange several hundred million in emergency funding for the team and its facilities. And even that subsidy might not work in the long run. As usual, the government has its priorities in order.
By the way, while on the subject of interesting Ted Frank blog posts, don't miss this one.
Posted by Tom at 4:16 AM
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January 2, 2007
Government Finance 101
In this post from almost three years ago, I noted the utter hypocrisy of Congress regularly vilifying big business for attempting creative financing mechanisms to hedge risk. So, over the holidays, this letter to Washington Post from the Comptroller General of the United States caught my eye:
The largest employer in the world announced on Dec. 15 that it lost about $450 billion in fiscal 2006. Its auditor found that its financial statements were unreliable and that its controls were inadequate for the 10th straight year. On top of that, the entity's total liabilities and unfunded commitments rose to about $50 trillion, up from $20 trillion in just six years.If this announcement related to a private company, the news would have been on the front page of major newspapers. Unfortunately, such was not the case -- even though the entity is the U.S. government.
To put the figures in perspective, $50 trillion is $440,000 per American household and is more than nine times as much as the median household income.
The only way elected officials will be able to make the tough choices necessary to put our nation on a more prudent and sustainable long-term fiscal path is if opinion leaders state the facts and speak the truth to the American people.
The Government Accountability Office is working with the Concord Coalition, the Brookings Institution, the Heritage Foundation and others to help educate the public about the facts in a professional, nonpartisan way. We hope the media and other opinion leaders do their part to save the future for our children and grandchildren.
DAVID M. WALKER
Comptroller General of the United States
Government Accountability Office
Washington
Posted by Tom at 4:42 AM
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December 20, 2006
The Brownback judicial litmus test fails
This previous post reported on the political posturing of Republican Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas, who was blocking a long-delayed judicial nomination by President Bush because the nominee had attended a commitment ceremony between a couple of gay friends. Well, Senator Brownback has finally backed off, but he still sounds demagogic even when he tries to do the right thing:
Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas, who blocked the confirmation of a woman to the federal bench because she attended a same-sex commitment ceremony for the daughter of her long-time neighbors, says he will now allow a vote on the nomination.Mr. Brownback, a possible contender for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008, said in a recent interview that when the Senate returned in January, he would allow a vote on Janet Neff, a 61-year-old Michigan state judge, who was nominated to a Federal District Court seat.
Mr. Brownback, who has been criticized for blocking the nomination, said he would also no longer press a proposed solution he offered on Dec. 8 that garnered even more criticism: that he would remove his block if Judge Neff agreed to recuse herself from all cases involving same-sex unions.
In an interview last week, Mr. Brownback said that he still believed Judge Neff’s behavior raised serious questions about her impartiality and that he was likely to vote against her. But he said he did not realize his proposal — asking a nominee to agree in advance to remove herself from deciding a whole category of cases — was so unusual as to be possibly unprecedented. Legal scholars said it raised constitutional questions of separation of powers for a senator to demand that a judge commit to behavior on the bench in exchange for a vote.
Senator Brownback "did not realize" that his proposal violated the separation of powers upon which the federal government is based?
Posted by Tom at 4:13 AM
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December 18, 2006
Is Tony Blair's Princess Di premonition coming true?
During a scene of Stephen Frears' clever film, The Queen, British Prime Minister Tony Blair's staff is relishing the public disdain for the Royal Family's restrained response to Princess Diana's death because it makes Blair -- who made a passionate public response -- look good in comparison. Blair -- played brilliantly by Michael Sheen -- grows frustrated with his staff's gloating because he knows that the same public venom that is being directed toward the Royal Family could just as easily be directed toward him.
Based on this Daily Telegraph article, Blair may be receiving precisely what he feared:
We have become like any other nation. No more can we tell ourselves that British corruption scandals are qualitatively different from those of hot countries, or that the peccadilloes that shake our polity would barely make the newspapers in Italy. In 1994, in his first major speech as Labour leader, Tony Blair promised that, under his leadership, Britain would never again be out of step with Europe. Now, in a grisly kind of way, his ambition has been fulfilled.With so many sleaze stories in our news pages, it is easy to become confused. A prominent Labour donor has been profiting from the recommendations of his own task-force. Gordon Brown's supporters accuse Mr Blair of seeking to drag their man into the mire with him. Meanwhile, the Government has ordered an abrupt halt to the inquiry into allegations of hidden arms commissions, just as others begin to suspect corruption.
The sheer blizzard of allegations can leave us snow-blind. Perhaps, we tell ourselves, this is what all governments do. Perhaps Labour is no different from its predecessors. After all, wasn't John Major brought down after a series of sexual and financial scandals?
Yes, he was. But what is happening now is of a different order. The central accusation against this ministry – that it has sold favours, possibly even places in the legislature, to secret donors – is one that has not been seriously levelled at a British government since the introduction of the universal franchise. [. . .]
Tony Blair's belief in the superiority of his motives leads him to reason that, when the New Labour project is at stake, the ends justify the means.
We saw this within weeks of his accession when he sought to explain the Ecclestone affair – the first of many cash-for-favours scandals – on the basis that he was a pretty straight kinda guy. That, essentially, remains his attitude: he regards complaints about probity as petty next to what he is doing for Britain.
A decade later, parliament is cheapened, and the police have been called into Downing Street. That, more than the transformation of his party, more than Scottish devolution, more even than Iraq, will be his legacy.
Posted by Tom at 4:29 AM
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December 13, 2006
Not another dime
Charles Kuffner, one of Houston's best political bloggers, notes a small sign of progress (also here) in the seemingly relentless and misguided campaign of local governments to build expensive and unnecessary fiefdoms in the guise of large jails:
State Sen. John Whitmire, D-Houston, said there is no need for [Harris County] to spend at least $267 million building two jails when it could cut the inmate population at the county jail by allowing non-dangerous offenders out on bail before trial."I am very suspect whether there is a need for jail space," said Whitmire, who chairs the Senate Criminal Justice Committee. "Harris County wouldn't have an overcrowding problem at all if it had an effective pretrial release program."
Whitmire said the Legislature, in the upcoming session, may look at ways to help reduce jail overcrowding, such as shorter sentences for some crimes.
Commissioners Court likely will ask voters next November to approve bonds for new jails that would add 4,600 beds.
County Judge Robert Eckels and other members of Commissioners Court said the jails are needed to reduce overcrowding now and in the coming decades.
As noted earlier here, the condition of the Harris County Jail has long been a civic embarrassment, but the solution is not simply to build more jails. As noted earlier here, Scott Henson has written this thorough and insightful analysis of the true problem with the Harris County Jails, which is overcrowding from sloppy and lazy processing of prisoners who do not need to be incarcerated pending their trial.
There are some powerful political forces -- county commissioners, contractors, police unions, etc. -- that benefit from and support this unending spiral of jail construction, while the constituencies supporting prisoners are not as powerful or well-funded. However, it is clear that the solution is not simply to build bigger and more expensive jails. Rather, building additional facilities should not even be a consideration unless or until Harris County adopts a sensible pre-trial release policy that frees up literally thousands of existing jail cells that are being wasted on folks who should not be in jail. Moreover, the county should also be required to fix the chronically deplorable condition of its existing jails before seeking to build more. This is a community issue -- and in other communities as well -- that should transcend party politics. But I doubt that it will.
Posted by Tom at 4:57 AM
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December 3, 2006
Why don't you tell us what you really think?
The NRO Corner's John Podhoretz in this NY Daily News op-ed makes clear that he is not buying into that whole "elder statesman" thing that the NY Times reported last week regarding James Baker, III's co-chairmanship of the Iraq Study Group:
As Dana Milbank reports in The Washington Post, on Monday the [Iraq Study Group's] "co-chairmen, James Baker and Lee Hamilton, found time . . . to pose for an Annie Leibovitz photo shoot for Men's Vogue."[. . .]Baker, Hamilton and their crew of old Washington hands (and I mean old, like Metheuselah-level old) are recommending a "gradual pullback" of American troops but without a timetable. That basically translates into a nice, long, slow defeat - the "graceful exit" of which the president spoke so harshly.[. . .]
This is the consensus view of the Iraq Study Group, which is very proud that it reached consensus.
Its members also reached a consensus view that Depends is a really fine brand of adult diaper, and that they love reruns of "Murder, She Wrote."You perhaps note that I am writing with extreme disrespect toward the Iraq Study Group. That's because its report is a scandal and an embarrassment; it's flatly immoral to seek to make or guide policy in this fashion.
Look, if its members believe the war is lost, they should say so. They should bite the bullet and advocate a pullout of American forces sooner rather than later.
If its members could not actually achieve consensus on that point - if, in other words, some of its members still believe the war can be won while others believe there's no way to achieve victory - then it was simple vanity on the part of the Gang of 10 that led to the creation of a "consensus" document that split the difference.
There's no way to split the difference, unless you're hurrying off to have your mug immortalized by Annie Leibovitz and want to bang down the gavel so you can get plenty of time to get hair and makeup done.
America and its allies are either going to win this war or we're going to lose. We will either conclude our military actions in Iraq with terrorists and insurgents dead or fled and an imposition of civil order in the country by its elected government, or we will turn tail and leave the place in chaos and ruins.
What's even more appalling, if true, is the group's other key recommendation - which is that America should try to find answers to its problems through an international conference that would include Syria and Iran.
What do Syria and Iran want more than anything else in the world? To see an American defeat in Iraq. To see an America so crippled that they can work their will in the Middle East without fear of retribution. Syria could swallow up Lebanon whole once again. Iran could do whatever it chooses inside and outside its borders (develop and peddle nuclear weaponry, sponsor terrorism against Israeli and Western targets) with impunity.
They're going to be a great help. But then, that's Baker for you. Give him a problem and he'll tell you your best hope of solving it can be found in sucking up to an Arab dictator.
Read the entire op-ed. The Chronicle's Anne Belli chimes in with a more respectful profile of Baker here.
Posted by Tom at 7:19 AM
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December 2, 2006
Divided over powerful government
The late Milton Friedman commented recently that he had concluded that the best political make-up for the federal government was one that had the greatest likelihood to develop gridlock because of the damaging policies that the government enacts when one party or the other controls both the legislative and executive branches. In this TCS Daily op-ed, Arnold Kling of EconLog channels that thought:
The conventional wisdom is that we would be better off if politically powerful leaders were less mediocre. Instead, my view is that we would be better off if mediocre political leaders were less powerful. [. . .]We have to expect mediocrity from political leaders. They are selected by a very unreliable process. In general, I try to avoid contact with narcissists who spend their time pleading for money. Those are hardly the intellectual and emotional characteristics that make someone admirable, yet they are the traits of people who go into politics. [. . .]
The libertarian view is that private institutions, both for-profit and non-profit, are better at problem-solving than government institutions. Regardless of whether political leadership is wise or mediocre, our goal should be to limit the damage that public officials can do. Do not demand that they "solve" health care, "fix" education, or launch a "Manhattan project" for energy independence. Even for experts, those are impossible tasks. The harder we press our existing leaders to address these issues, the more trouble they are going to cause.
The belief that the problem with government is the particular individuals in power is dangerous. The myth is that somewhere out there we could find great leaders who could use government to solve all of our problems. Instead, we need to be vigilant against the enlargement of government, by either mediocre or expert leaders.
Do not look upon the electoral process as a search for great leaders. At best, it gives us an opportunity for damage control.
Posted by Tom at 7:40 AM
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November 27, 2006
Houston's Mr. Fix-It returns to Washington
This NY Sunday Times article reviews Former White House Chief of Staff, Secretary of State and Secretary of Treasury James Baker, III co-chairmanship of the Iraq Study Group, which is currently scheduled to deliver its report to the President by mid-December. Mr. Baker, who spends most of his time these days at the Baker Institute at Houston's Rice University, is described in the article as wanting the chairmanship of the Iraq Group to be the template for his role as an elder statesman in the coming years:
Now, at 76, Mr. Baker is in high diplomat mode, on a mission, friends and supporters say, to aid his country and his president — and, while he is at it, seal his legacy in the realm of statesmen, a sphere he cares about far more than politics.“I think he’d like to be remembered as a 21st-century Disraeli,” said Leon Panetta, a Democratic member of the group, referring to the 19th-century British statesman and prime minister. “I think deep down he is someone who believes that his diplomatic career, in many ways, helped change the world.”
Read the entire article.
Posted by Tom at 4:26 AM
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November 22, 2006
The story of the open road
As many of us get ready to hit the road over the holiday weekend, Ralph Bennett in this TCS Daily article provides an excellent overview of the birth of the nation's Interstate Highway System during the Eisenhower Administration. We tend to take the system for granted these days, but it is truly an engineering and economic marvel that is one of our many blessings for which we will give thanks this holiday weekend.
Posted by Tom at 7:35 AM
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November 21, 2006
Does anyone take John Edwards seriously anymore?
As noted in this post from late 2004, a decent case can be made that former Democratic vice-presidential candidate was the difference in costing John Kerry the close 2004 Presidential election, particularly after his Benny Hinn imitation on the campaign trail.
But now as Edwards postures toward a run for the Democratic Party presidential nomination in 2008, he provided us an exhibition of hypocrisy that is brazen even by Washington, D.C. standards. On the same day that Edwards was bashing Wal-Mart on a conference call with labor leaders, an Edwards "aide" was requesting that the local Wal-Mart bump the former senator to the front of the line to get a Playstation 3 for his son. Reason's Jeff Taylor wryly observes:
The alternative to a Democratic presidential campaign marked by a downward spiral of Pythonseque depravation one-upsmanship might actually address issues like the federal entitlement explosion or comprehensive income tax reform, two areas where Republicans have failed miserably to advance any coherent solution. Should Edwards or Hillary Clinton or someone find away to talk about these things without class-warfare cant, they'll have a head start on the general election.In any event, maybe the best thing for Wal-Mart to do is stop chortling and go ahead and give John Edwards a PS3 and a couple games. Throw in a flat-panel too. Maybe that way he'll reacquaint himself with American prosperity and abundance and be a better candidate for the experience.
Is Hillary Clinton even going to have any competition for the 2008 Democratic Party presidential nomination?
Posted by Tom at 4:06 AM
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November 20, 2006
Liberty and Justice for all?
The chronically overcrowded and abysmal condition of the Harris County Jail has been a frequent topic on this blog (most recently here), so this Bill Murphy/Houston Chronicle article from over the weekend caught my eye because it concerned the changing views of one of the formerly toughest sentencing judges in the Harris County District Courts:
State District Judge Michael McSpadden once believed that long sentences would deter drug sales and drug use.But after more than two decades hearing felony cases in Harris County, the former prosecutor is calling on the governor and Legislature to reduce sentences for low-level drug possession.
"These minor offenses are now overwhelming every felony docket, and the courts necessarily spend less time on the more important, violent crimes," he recently wrote to Gov. Rick Perry.
Nearly twice as many defendants in Harris County were sent to state jails last year for possessing less than 1 gram of a drug than in Dallas, Tarrant and Bexar counties combined.McSpadden recommended making delivering or possessing a small amount of drugs a Class A misdemeanor carrying no more than a year in county jail. [. . .]
The judge said the Houston Police Department and District Attorney's Office are clogging court dockets and causing crowding in the county jail and state jails by bringing so many drug-possession cases against those found with pipe residue or a sugar packet's worth of cocaine.
Scott Henson over at Grits for Breakfast recently touched on the overcrowding issue and the related waste of resources issue in connection with the arrest in the Houston area of Doug Supernaw, the Bryan-born Texas country and western music star, for possession of a roach clip with a small amount of marijuana. Scott also blogged a post on the McSpadden story, and he has compiled a valuable series of posts on why Texas prisons are overcrowded, what counties can do about it, and the particular reasons why the Harris County jails remain such a mess.
Meanwhile, Doug Berman over at the Sentencing Law and Policy blog posted this piece on this Fact Sheet from the National Council on Crime and Delinquency that compares United States incarceration rates with those of other countries around the world. The data does not reflect well on the U.S.:
The U.S. has less than 5% of the world’s population but over 23% of the world’s incarcerated people.
The U.S. incarcerates the largest number of people in the world.
Some individual US states imprison up to six times as many people as do nations of comparable population.
The incarceration rate in the U.S. is four times the world average.
Crime rates do not account for incarceration rates.
The U.S. imprisons the most women in the world.
Professor Berman observes: “And we are supposedly a country founded on freedom? We may talk the talk about liberty, but we certainly do not walk the walk in the way we approach and apply our criminal justice system.”
The overly-harsh and wasteful sentences handed down to businessmen such as Jamie Olis and Jeff Skilling tend to receive the most publicity, but the equally harsh sentences meted out in Texas and much of the rest of the US over minor drug offenses and the like is a national disgrace. As the late Milton Friedman observed in this letter to former drug czar Bill Bennett, we all should be "revolted . . . by the prospect of turning the United States into an armed camp, by the vision of jails filled with casual drug users and of an army of enforcers empowered to invade the liberty of citizens on slight evidence."
Posted by Tom at 4:17 AM
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November 19, 2006
The Friedman influence
Several clever recent posts reflect the tremendous influence that Milton Friedman has had on economics and politics.
First, Larry Ribstein -- who doesn't touch on politics much but always provides keen insight when he does -- reflects Friedman's view on government interference in markets with this observation about the current political scene:
Senate Democrats, who need 60 votes to anything, have 51, and that includes some diverse agendas (e.g., Joe Lieberman). The House Speaker-to-be got thoroughly trampled by her own party on her first move. The WP quotes Jim Moran as threatening revenge on people who voted against Murtha (who, by the way, thinks ethics rules are "crap"). Meanwhile, the last time I checked, GWB was still President, a lame duck thinking about the history books.In short, the U.S. government appears to be totally paralyzed for the next two years, incapable of doing much more than impotently holding hearings.
I guess the fact that the stock market has been setting records every day must be just a coincidence.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal's ($) Washington Wire blog passes along this anecdote about Friedman from none other than John Kenneth Galbraith:
[A]t a lunch in Geneva in 1955, India’s statistician mentioned to [Galbraith] that the Indian government had asked several economists, including Milton Friedman, to visit and comment on Indian’s next five-year plan. [Galbraith] replied:“Asking Milton Friedman to comment on a five year plan is like asking the Pope to comment on the running of a birth control clinic.”
Over at Cafe Hayek, Don Boudreaux recounts Professor Friedman's legendary debating skill:
Mr. Friedman also was a virtuoso debater. When, to endorse conscription over the volunteer military, Gen. William Westmorland said that he did not want to command "an army of mercenaries," Mr. Friedman piped up and asked, "General, would you rather command an army of slaves?"Mr. Westmoreland replied, "I don't like to hear our patriotic draftees referred to as slaves." To which Mr. Friedman then retorted, "I don't like to hear our patriotic volunteers referred to as mercenaries. If they are mercenaries, then I, sir, am a mercenary professor, and you, sir, are a mercenary general; we are served by mercenary physicians, we use a mercenary lawyer, and we get our meat from a mercenary butcher."
Finally, Lawrence Summers does a fine job of placing Professor Friedman's impact on the worlds of economics and politics in perspective in this NY Sunday Times op-ed.
Posted by Tom at 7:39 AM
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November 14, 2006
The indiscriminate Hammer
Ben Witherington is a noted New Testament scholar at Asbury Theological Institute in Wilmore, Kentucky near Lexington, which is not the typical place that former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay would normally have been trolling for money during his heyday in Congress. In this post explaining the danger for Evangelical Christians in aligning themselves with either major political party, Dr. Witherington passes along the following anecdote about DeLay:
Several years ago I was contacted by Tom DeLay. He figured since I was a well known white Evangelical I must be on his side on a host of things. I was invited to the White House, and I was named Kentucky Business Man of the Year. I have the plaque sitting in my office framed to prove it. Now, I am no businessman. Just ask my wife. For five years I ran a little coffee shop in Wilmore for our Christian students as a ministry to them-- its called Solomon's Porch, and its still up and running, employing and feeding students and helping them work their way through college and seminary. Its a good ministry, but its not a business that made money. In fact I lost $40,000 helping those students during that time. I was definitely not a Kentucky Businessman of the Year! There were many who did better than I, and I could talk at length about the plight of small businesses which are taxed right out of existence. Several previous restaurants in that spot had not lasted more than about six months. Wilmore is only a town of some 5,000 souls.
You see Delay was running a scam on Evangelical Protestants. It worked like this--- you call someone, and send them an award, whether they deserve it or not. You invite them to D.C. to meet influential people. Delay gets the photo-op with small business persons, but the real purpose of all this is raising money. I got endless calls out of Delay's office to send money to this, that or the other fund running out of his office to further his causes etc.In other words, I wasn't given an award for anything. Obviously they were oblivious to the fact that my business was failing from an economic point of view, though not from a ministry point of view. What I was given was a carrot, hoping for a whole bunch of carrots in return. It was purely a quid pro quo deal. What I won was endless phone calls about races, and causes etc. some of it more or less connected to Delay's office directly. It is not a surprise to me that the man was drummed out of office. It is also not a surprise to me that he was a major player in that party and a close ally of George Bush from way back in Texas. "All power corrupts, and ultimate power corrupts uiltimately" is a wise saying.
Posted by Tom at 4:32 AM
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November 7, 2006
To vote or not to vote
It's Election Day 2006, and Houston's foremost political Charles Kuffner passes along that the Texas Secretary of State is predicting that only 36 percent of the registered voters in Texas will cast ballots.
On first impression, such a small turnout seems pretty pathetic.
But on second thought, Greg Mankiw explains why maybe that's not such a bad thing.
Nonetheless, I hope you vote in the election.
Posted by Tom at 4:30 AM
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November 2, 2006
Those all-important quart-sized bags
I swear, you can't make this stuff up. The Wall Street Journal's airline travel reporter Scott McCartney reports ($) (see McCartney's follow-up article here) about the Transportation Security Administration's latest campaign to make airline travel a complete and utter aggravation:
An airport security screener sat at a Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport checkpoint beside a plastic tub filled with small cans of shaving cream and tiny tubes of toothpaste.Were they contraband items that ran afoul of safety rules?
"No, people didn't have quart-size plastic bags," the Transportation Security Administration official said.
Where's Seinfeld when you need him? In a quintessential bureaucratic bedevilment, the TSA allows small bottles and tubes of liquids to be carried aboard airplanes only if they are enclosed in a quart-size, zip-top plastic bag. No gallon bags. No fold-over sandwich bags. Even if you have only one bottle on you, it must be carried in a quart-size, zip-top plastic bag. Screeners confiscate any nonconforming items or send travelers to ticket counters to check luggage.
That's just one of the frustrations travelers have found as TSA began implementing new rules on liquids last month and, in the eyes of some travelers, seemingly prohibited common sense. [. . .]
Either frustrated or confused by the new rules, or unable to squeeze all they need into a quart-size bag, passengers continue to check baggage at elevated rates, airlines say. And TSA is encouraging that for passengers who don't want to mess with quart zip-top bags.
All of this to reassure us that airline travel is safe from terrorists? Seems more like security theater to me.
Posted by Tom at 4:23 AM
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November 1, 2006
All in the Family
Based on this article, it's safe to say that the family get-togethers of New Orleans Saints and former Austin Westlake High School quarterback Drew Brees aren't the stuff of a Norman Rockwell painting:
New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees has asked his mother to stop using his picture in TV commercials touting her candidacy for a Texas appeals court."I think the major point here is that my mother is using me in a campaign, and I've made it known many times I don't want to be involved."
In commercials running on Austin stations, Mina Brees had been using a picture of her son in the uniform of his former team, the San Diego Chargers, to emphasize her ties to football.
"I think the major point here is that my mother is using me in a campaign, and I've made it known many times I don't want to be involved," Drew Brees said Monday.
Mina Brees, an Austin attorney, is running as a Democrat for a spot on Texas' 3rd Court of Appeals. She said replacement commercials that omit any mention of her son were taped last week and sent to stations on Friday.
She said she did not anticipate upsetting her son and that "everything in the ad was true."
She said her connection to football is relevant to her campaign because her father, a successful high school coach, used sports to teach her a strong work ethic that she would bring to the judicial bench.
Drew Brees, who won a state football championship with Westlake High School in suburban Austin, said he got no response from his mother when he first heard about the ads and called her to ask that she stop using them. His agent sent her a letter Oct. 20 threatening legal action, he said.
He called his relationship with his mother "nonexistent" after it crumbled six years ago when he refused to hire her as his agent.
Mina Brees said her son's allegations were a mischaracterization and that she had no intention of becoming his agent.
"I love Drew very much, and I'm very proud of him. But sometimes when people are following a career path, they change," she said.
Sounds as if Mrs. Brees and Marc O'Hair ought to get together and compare notes on child rearing.
Posted by Tom at 4:33 AM
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October 25, 2006
Litmus test run amok
Earlier in the week, it was the Democrats making silly. But today, this Washington Post editorial reports that a Republican senator from Kansas is one-upping the Democrats in the absurdity department:
IF YOU THOUGHT that fights over judicial nominations couldn't get any worse, consider the case of Janet T. Neff, whom President Bush has nominated to a federal district judgeship in Michigan. Judge Neff, who serves on the Michigan Court of Appeals, is part of a multi-judge deal between the White House and Michigan's two Democratic senators resolving a long-standing fight over federal court nominees from that state. Yet in reaching an accommodation with the home-state senators, Mr. Bush finds himself with another problem. For Judge Neff, it turns out, once attended a commitment ceremony for a lesbian couple -- and that has Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback (R) reaching for the smelling salts and blocking the nomination.Mr. Brownback has said he wants to satisfy himself that the judge was not presiding over an "illegal marriage ceremony" in Pittsfield, Mass., in 2002 -- before the state legalized same-sex marriage. He has written to Judge Neff asking for an explanation, his spokesman says, and will hold up her nomination until he learns the nature of the ceremony and its legality. . . . An administration official says Judge Neff has told Mr. Brownback that she didn't preside [over the ceremony].
Blocking a long-delayed judicial nomination by your party's President because the nominee attended a commitment ceremony between a couple of gay friends? Even had the judge "presided" over the non-binding, symbolic ceremony, what difference does that make? What on earth is Brownback thinking?
President Bush has got to be thinking that his Crawford ranch is looking better every day.
Posted by Tom at 4:02 AM
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October 23, 2006
The worst political ad of the year
I've been a tad hard on the Republican Party recently (here, here and here).
But it's not as if the Democratic Party is distinguishing itself during this political season. Take a look at the political ad below, which is surely the worst political ad of the year, courtesy of the Democratic Party.
Posted by Tom at 4:50 AM
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October 19, 2006
Stunning ignorance
Jeff Stein, the national security editor at Congressional Quarterly, reports on in this NY Times article some questions he has been asking folks in Washington recently:
For the past several months, I’ve been wrapping up lengthy interviews with Washington counterterrorism officials with a fundamental question: “Do you know the difference between a Sunni and a Shiite?” [. . .]. . . so far, most American officials I’ve interviewed don’t have a clue. That includes not just intelligence and law enforcement officials, but also members of Congress who have important roles overseeing our spy agencies. How can they do their jobs without knowing the basics? [. . .]
Take Representative Terry Everett, a seven-term Alabama Republican who is vice chairman of the House intelligence subcommittee on technical and tactical intelligence.
“Do you know the difference between a Sunni and a Shiite?” I asked him a few weeks ago.
Mr. Everett responded with a low chuckle. He thought for a moment: “One’s in one location, another’s in another location. No, to be honest with you, I don’t know. I thought it was differences in their religion, different families or something.”
That's the vice-chairman of a House intelligence subcommittee? And he doesn't even make this top 10 list of the dumbest members of Congress.
God save us.
By the way, while on matters religious, don't miss this NY Times article that reports on the hardships faced by Iraq's dwindling Christian population.
Posted by Tom at 4:24 AM
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October 9, 2006
The NY Times on James Baker's new book
Former White House Chief of Staff, Secretary of State and Secretary of Treasury James Baker, III, who spends his time these days at the Baker Institute at Rice University, has written a new book entitled “Work Hard, Study . . . and Keep Out of Politics!” Adventures and Lessons From an Unexpected Public Life." The title of the book is the legendary advice of Baker's grandfather, James Addison Baker, who was one of the founders of the venerable Houston law firm, Baker & Botts.
This NY Times review of Baker's new book belittles the current Bush Administration, even though the book does no such thing. That passes for a book review in the NY Times these days.
Posted by Tom at 5:03 AM
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October 4, 2006
A Democratic Party statesman?
This post from yesterday noted the failed leadership of the Republican Party as we approach this fall's elections. In the interests of balance, however, I pass along this delicious post from Victor Davis Hanson in which he takes stock of the current state of the Democratic Party, including one of its standard-bearers, former President Jimmy Carter (earlier post here):
Jimmy Carter . . . almost immediately was back in the news claiming that the United States was one of the world’s great abusers of civil rights (I wonder how our internecine body count in Plains, Georgia stacks up with that in Rwanda, Kosovo, or Dafur?). He adds that all Presidents—except the current one—have been supporters of human rights.In his dotage, Carter is proving once again that he is as malicious and mean-spirited a public figure as he is historically ignorant. And for all his sanctimonious Christian veneer, and fly-fishing, ‘aw shucks' blue-jeans image, he can’t hide an essentially ungracious and unkind soul.
Does he have any idea of Lincoln and Andrew Johnson suspending habeas corpus and shutting down newspapers, Woodrow Wilson jailing political dissidents, FDR interning American citizens and executing German agents in secret military tribunals? Do we have currently a Nixon’s enemies list? And can Carter point to just one aspect of current American life where civil liberties are materially curtailed, in which an American can’t do what he wants? Getting on a plane without shampoo doesn’t count—or not having your family at the gate when you land either: all thanks to al Qaeda, not George Bush. [. . .]There is another disturbing element to Cartesian maliciousness. He asks us to forget all the dilemmas of being President, the necessity of making bad choices when the alternative is usually worse. And, of course, he seems to have amnesia about his own failings that put this country in grave jeopardy. He sanctimoniously lectured us on our Cold War fixation on communism—and got a murderous Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. He talked of a post-Vietnam reappraisal in the midst of the Cambodian Holocaust. “Human Rights” was an admirable banner, but did not include any such audit of Sandinista Communists.
He wept for the middle class, but adopted policies that led to double-digit interest rates and inflation, ensuring that only the upscale could borrow for a house or ensure their salaries would keep up with the cost of living. No need to mention his energy policy or gas lines.
Carter’s Waterloo, of course was the Iranian hostage crisis. It was not just that his gutting of the military helped to explain the rescue disaster. Far more importantly, we can chart the rise of radical political Islam with the storming of the American embassy in Teheran and the impotent response of Jimmy Carter.
Long before George Bush was elected to anything, crowds in Teheran gave us the genesis of the Great Satan and “Death to Carter”. Does he remember that so great was the Iranian Islamist hatred of him, that Iran deliberately delayed the brokered release of the hostages until he was out of office—a lesson that appeasement wins contempt as the additional wage of its failure.
There's more, so read the whole thing. Then try to figure out the lesser of two bad choices.
Posted by Tom at 5:24 AM
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October 3, 2006
GOP cruising for a bruising?
I'm certainly no political prognosticator, but a couple of matters caught my eye over the past week or so that indicate to me that the Republican Party has become dangerously concerned with maintaining power rather than providing leadership.
The first thing that caught my attention was the political wrangling that occurred in regard to the silly GOP initiative to ban Internet gambling, a ban that leads to absurd abuses of power such as this. Senate Republican Leader Bill Frist was criticized last month for attempting to attach the Internet gambling ban on to a defense appropriations bill, so what does he do? Senator Frist attaches the Internet gambling ban to a port security bill at the last minute to ensure that there would be no debate over the ban and also to make sure that anyone who voted against the port security bill because of such shenanigans would be labeled as being soft on port security. In short, Frist crammed a needless and paternalistic law down our throats while stifling debate on the measure and not allowing for an honest and straightforward vote on the ban.
Elsewhere, over in the scandal sheets, it was bad enough that Florida Republican House member Mark Foley liked to send salacious emails to 16-year old House pages, now it appears that House Republican leadership hoped Foley’s indiscretions could be covered up until after the upcoming election. John Miller at The Corner sums the lurid affair up pretty well:
Foley could become the new Jack Abramoff. Except that whereas the details of Abramoff’s were always a bit complicated for the public to follow closely, the accusations now leveled at Foley are much simpler and more appalling. Foley is on the verge of becoming the poster child of a party that is concerned about little more than preserving its power.
By the way, Foley championed child predator laws as a representative, so there is at least a reasonable chance that he will be prosecuted under the same law that he sponsored. Meanwhile, the NY Times' John Tierney also chimes in ($) on the affair with a sound understanding of the economics of political power:
The justification for the page program is that it gives teenagers an insider’s glimpse of how Congress works. But why disillusion them at such a tender age? If they stayed in school, they could maintain their innocence by reading the old step-by-step textbook version of how a bill becomes law. By going to Capitol Hill, they see how the process has changed:1. A bill is introduced to build highways.
2. A congressman receives a donation from a constituent who wants to open a go-kart track.
3. The congressman persuades his committee chairman to slip in a $350 million “earmark” for an “alternative sustainable transportation research facility” in his district.
4. The chairman quietly adds similar earmarks for all members of the committee.
5. The bill is passed unanimously.
6. The president complains about the “wasteful spending” but signs it into law anyway.
7. The congressman attends a fund-raiser at the new go-kart track.
What lesson has the page learned? That Congress is the closest thing in modern America to a medieval court: an enclave governed by arcane ancient rules of seniority, a gathering of nobles who spend their days accepting praise and dispensing favors to supplicants.
They’re so secure in their jobs, and so used to being surrounded by groveling minions, that they assume the privileges of feudal lords when dealing with pages and other lieges. Which is why, on occasion, they try to exercise the droit du seigneur.
And the foregoing doesn't even include the Bush Administration's failure to put a stop to the Justice Department's policy of criminalizing unpopular business interests during the post-Enron era, an unsupervised regulatory scheme that has cost U.S. communities billions of dollars in losses and tens of thousands of jobs. Not to mention that badly-needed health care finance reform has been largely ignored, nothing has been done about income tax simplification, wasteful farm subsidies have been increased, inefficient tariffs have been placed on various products (including steel, lumber, and even shrimp), a massive new prescription drug governmental subsidy has been created, poorly-conceived amendments to the U.S. Bankruptcy Code were touted and then enacted, and airline security was nationalized into a huge and ineffectual bureaucracy.
Frankly, the most troubling thing about all this is that the Democratic Party is so unfocused that they are not routing these guys.
Posted by Tom at 4:10 AM
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August 31, 2006
Amazing arrogance
Virginia Republican Senator George Allen is in a fight for his political life, which is not what one would normally expect from a candidate who was recently mentioned as Presidential timber. Senator Allen has been hammered in the media for some apparently patronizing remarks that he made to a minority student, but my sense is that the attitude reflected in this Washington Post article is a far bigger problem for Allen with voters than his impolite remarks to a student.
The article reports that last week “the Secret Service asked Virginia officials if they would be kind enough to shut down all of the HOV lanes on I-395 from 1 to 7 p.m. the next day so President Bush could get where he needed to be,” which was a fundraiser for Senator Allen. State traffic experts explained the likely results of closing the HOV lane to accomodate President Bush and Senator Allen:
There will be approximately 8,600 cars using the HOV lanes over a three hour period (4 to 7 pm). This equates to approximately 20,000 to 22,000 people. If the HOV lanes are closed, according to the District’s estimate the back up of traffic in the general purpose lanes will not be cleared until 10 p.m.
Despite that effect, local officials apparently had quite a time talking the Secret Service out of the plan.
When a couple of politicians expose an attitude that they could not care less about how much they inconvenience 20,000 of their citizens so long as one of the politicians can get to a rubber-chicken fundraiser for the other one on time, that's a pretty good signal that it's time for a change.
Hat tip to Gene Healy for the link to the WaPo article.
Posted by Tom at 5:18 AM
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August 28, 2006
A disturbing growth industry
This Newspaper.com story summarizes several articles and resources that examine a troubling growth industry among Texas municipalities:
Red light cameras and cash seizures are taking money from motorists and funding uncontrolled spending sprees in small Texas cities. . . . In the South Texas city of San Juan, population 26,200, police have begun seizing ever greater amounts by taking both cash and vehicles from motorists. In 2005, officers collected $4400. This year, however, the force has collected $67,000. Pharr, with a population of 47,000, collected $422,000 last year. McAllen, a bigger city with 106,000 residents, collected $484,000. A federal appeals court ruling this week concluded that driving with a large amount of cash is sufficient justification for police to confiscate it, even if there is no evidence that a crime has been committed.Each South Texas city has said its priority is to use the money to fund or expand a SWAT team, . . .
As Cato Institute policy analyst Radley Balko shows in this Cato study, small municipalities frequently misuse SWAT squads for routine police work, which has led to an increasing number of botched raids resulting in injury or even death to innocent citizens. And local politicians of small Texas cities are encouraging liberal confiscation policies by police as a convenient means to funding this type of questionable activity?
Posted by Tom at 5:30 AM
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August 27, 2006
Taking stock in New Orleans
The NY Times continues today with another installment in its excellent The Katrina Year series focusing on the status of the rebuilding of New Orleans. To the surprise of no one who has ever been involved in the interplay of business development nad government bureaucracy, the re-development of areas of the city that are most attractive for investment has actually gone reasonably well, while the areas in which government subsidies are necessary to induce private capital to invest have lagged. Also not surprising is the fact that local governmental entities still have not been able to put together a plan for providing basic governmental services for redevelopment. So it goes.
As noted in posts here and here last year in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, one of the biggest problems confronting redevelopment of the New Orleans area was the storm's destruction of small businesses, which on an aggregate basis was the largest provider of jobs in the New Orleans area. This NY Times article reports on the struggles that small businesses in New Orleans have confronted in attempting to stay afloat in the year after Katrina and how many of the pre-Katrina small businesses have little hope of coming back.
Update: In this Opinion Journal editorial, the Wall Street Journal editorial board eviscerates the federal government's handling of the enormous amount of federal aid thrown at New Orleans in the year since Katrina.
Posted by Tom at 8:16 AM
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August 24, 2006
Hoop Nazis
I recognize that the University Park area of Dallas is a nice place to live and all, and I also concede that the residents there are rightly attentive to maintaining property values and the decorum of the area. But this recent Dallas Morning News article reports on an initiative that establishes fairly convincingly that a number of the UP residents simply do not have enough to do:
Hoops could be shot down in this wealthy community thanks to a proposed ordinance banning basketball goals in front yards. The reason? To some city officials, they don't look too good.That's the basis of a proposed University Park ordinance prohibiting portable and permanent basketball hoops. On Tuesday, council members postponed a decision on the ordinance until their Aug. 22 meeting so revisions could be made, . . .
Under the proposal, violators could be fined up to $2,000 a day. [. . .]
The ordinance the Planning and Zoning Commission and city staff originally recommended would have allowed residents to keep portable basketball goals in their front yards for up to 30 days a year. Council members wanted none of that, though.
They went back and forth for about 15 minutes at their Tuesday meeting on whether to allow swings, soccer goals and basketball goals in front yards at all. Some wanted to allow them certain months of the year, others only during daylight hours.
Portable soccer goals and badminton nets were deemed allowable because they could be moved inside every night. So were one-seat swings, provided they don't swing into the street.
Trampolines and basketball goals weren't as lucky.
"It's just not as pleasing to the eye," [the] Mayor . . . said about the goals.
Posted by Tom at 6:05 AM
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The risk of supporting a former girlfriend
It's reasonably clear that Texas Supreme Court Justice Nathan Hecht didn't think anything of it when he gave dozens of media interviews last year supporting President Bush's nomination to the US Supreme Court of his former girlfriend and fellow parishoner, trusted Bush White House advisor Harriet Miers.
But the Texas Commission on Judicial Conduct didn't view Justice Hecht's politicking on behalf of Miers in the same way. In May, the Commission issued an ethics rebuke to Justice Hecht, determining that he had improperly used the prestige of his office to support the nomination of Miers. Earlier this week, Justice Hecht appealed that decision to a three-judge panel during a hearing in Ft. Worth (hat tip to Peter Lattman for the link).
The Commission accused Justice Hecht of going “on a specific mission, a campaign, in connection with certain parties in the White House and their operatives” and, in so doing, violated two canons of the Texas Code of Judicial Conduct:
“A judge shall not lend the prestige of judicial office to advance the private interests of the judge or others;” and“A judge . . . shall not authorize the public use of his or her name endorsing another candidate for any public office.”
In response, Justice Hecht contends that the Commission misapplied the canons because Miers was not a political candidate, was not involved in a political election race and had no election opponent. Moreover, Justice Hecht observed that reporters were interested in his views about Miers because of his three-decade friendship with her, not because of his status as a Texas Supreme Court Justice.
The three-judge panel has 60 days in which to issue a ruling. The panel's decision may be appealed directly to the US Supreme Court, which Hecht lawyer Chip Babcock contends that he will if the Commission's rebuke of Justice Hecht is upheld.
Posted by Tom at 4:50 AM
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August 22, 2006
What's really behind the Andrew Young-Wal-Mart flap
This NY Times article reports on the flap over the recent remarks of Andrew Young, the colleague of Martin Luther King who went on to become the first black congressman from Georgia since Reconstruction and one of Atlanta's most prominent politicians.
Young had recently become a consultant for Wal-Mart, but that particular job didn't last long after Young was quoted during a recent interview "defending" Wal-Mart as not being so bad for black people because Jewish, Arab and Korean store owners had traditionally “ripped off” black neighborhoods by “selling us stale bread and bad meat and wilted vegetables.” Concluding that Young's defense of the company was faint praise, Wal-Mart understandably let him go.
As would be expected, the Times article focuses on the angst that Young's remarks has generated among the folks who are preoccupied with race relations, but Larry Ribstein observes the much more troubling dynamic that is truly behind Young's remarks:
I don't believe civil rights hero Young is a bigot. But unfortunately the bigoted nature of his remarks will draw attention from the real prejudice here -- against capitalism. It's really all about people who want to make a profit, and those who insist that this is a zero sum game that has to be ripping off the customers.The result of this attitude is anti-Wal-Mart laws like the one coming up in Chicago that hurt the very people Young fought to defend. Even when hired to defend Wal-Mart, Young couldn't resist bashing it, and others who tried to make a buck.
Meanwhile, along the same lines, Jeff Matthews analyzes Senator Joe Biden's recent anti-Wal-Mart remarks and how they reveal the leadership void within the Democratic Party. Check it out.
Update: The always-insightful Holman Jenkins of the Wall Street Journal chimes in with this column ($) echoing the same thoughts and more.
Posted by Tom at 5:40 AM
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August 21, 2006
An Enronesque public scam
This NY Times article reveals a scam that New York AG ("attorney general" or "aspiring governor," take your pick) Eliot Spitzer won't touch with a ten-foot pole:
Every year since 1999, New York City has reported that it has all the money it needs to pay for the pensions that have been promised to city workers.
With the retirement plans said to be financially sound, state politicians have happily showered city employees with generous pension enhancements — annual cost-of-living increases, holiday bonus payments, early retirement with full benefits — that are the envy of private-sector workers, whose pension benefits have eroded.But a close inspection of city pension records shows that the funds committed to the plans may fall well short of the city’s promises to hundreds of thousands of current and retired workers. They look fully funded chiefly because the city has been using an unusual pension calculation that does not comply with accepted government accounting rules. Even the city’s chief actuary, who helps produce the annual reports, says the official numbers are “meaningless” when it comes to showing the plans’ financial health.
The chief actuary, Robert C. North, has prepared a little-noticed set of alternative calculations showing that the gap in the pension funds could be as wide as $49 billion. That is nearly the size of the city’s entire annual budget and the equivalent of the city’s publicly disclosed outstanding debt.[ . . .]
Senior New York City officials bristled at the suggestion that their annual reports were flawed and strongly disagreed with any suggestion that the pension plans might be under-funded.“The city’s pension funds are 99.6 percent funded by acceptable methods for evaluating and disclosing pension fund assets and liabilities,” said Martha Stark, the New York City finance commissioner. . . .
Ms. Stark said that she was sure of the pension funds’ health because the city was contributing responsibly to them every year, and because she was confident that the investments in the funds would meet their targets of 8 percent average annual returns over the long haul. Many other public plans have investments targets in this range. [. . .]
Asked why the pension funds appeared to be fully funded back in 1999, when they were swollen with gains from the stock market boom, and still appear to be almost fully funded now — after losing billions of dollars in the stock market and granting billions of dollars worth of new benefits — she said that the numbers were “smoothed” to avoid short-term fluctuations. She also noted that the city had been increasing its annual contributions in recent years.
Arnold Kling observes that "if you assume 8 percent annual returns, many things are possible. Until the actual returns come in." As noted in this earlier post regarding accounting for other government liabilities, the government bears the entire risk of a shortfall in regard to these public pension plans and, thus, the only way they remain viable is through the same type of alleged accounting gimmicks and deficient disclosure for which the Justice Department prosecuted Arthur Andersen out of business, Ken Lay to death and Jeff Skilling to prison, probably for much of his remaining life.
So, what is Spitzer or the Justice Department going to do about the same type of activity in regard to public pensions?
Posted by Tom at 6:59 AM
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August 18, 2006
Now, let me get this straight
I am not astute politically, so I usually leave analysis of such matters to more politically savvy bloggers, such as local pundits Charles Kuffner at Off the Kuff, as well as Kevin Whited and Anne Linehan over at blogHouston.net.
And I also certainly don't condone public officials using their clout to obtain favorable treatment for their family members and friends who mess up and find themselves embroiled in the criminal justice system.
However, after reading this article, it occurs to me that the attorney general of New Jersey was forced to resign earlier this week essentially because she forgot some some items in her boyfriend's car and the boyfriend wasn't wearing a seatbelt.
What am I missing?
Posted by Tom at 6:47 AM
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August 14, 2006
Nice gig if you can get it
Cato Institute tax director Chris Edwards -- author of Downsizing the Federal Government (Cato 2005) -- addresses in this Washington Post article the myth that a job in the federal government involves much of a sacrifice of what the "servant" could earn in the private sector:
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released data this month showing that the average compensation for the 1.8 million federal civilian workers in 2005 was $106,579 -- exactly twice the average compensation paid in the U.S. private sector: $53,289. If you consider wages without benefits, the average federal civilian worker earned $71,114, [which is] 62 percent more than the average private-sector worker, who made $43,917.The high level of federal pay is problematic in and of itself, but so is its rapid growth. Since 1990 average compensation for federal workers has increased by 129 percent, the BEA data show, compared with 74 percent for private-sector workers.
Why is federal compensation growing so quickly? For one thing, federal pay schedules increase every year regardless of how well the economy is doing. Thus in recession years, private pay stagnates while government pay continues to rise. Another factor is the steadily increasing "locality" payments given to federal workers in higher-cost cities.
Rapid growth in federal pay also results from regular promotions that move workers into higher salary brackets regardless of performance and from redefining jobs upward into higher pay ranges. [. . .]
According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the rate of layoffs and firings in the federal workforce is just one-quarter the rate in the private sector. [. . .]
One sign that federal workers have a sweeter deal than they acknowledge is the rate of voluntary resignation from government positions: just one-quarter the rate in the private sector, the BLS data show. Long job tenure has its pros and cons, but the fact that many federal workers burrow in and never leave suggests that they are doing pretty well for themselves.
And that's not even considering the enormous cost to businesses and lives resulting from the misguided work of some of those well-paid federal employees.
Posted by Tom at 6:17 AM
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August 3, 2006
The more things change, the more they stay the same
Several posts from last year (here, here and here) addressed one of the constants of my 27-year legal career in Houston -- the chronically abysmal condition of the Harris County Jail. With this article, the Chronicle's Steve McViker continues the Chronicle's series on the problem that no Harri County official seems to want to solve. Despite showing a "good faith effort" to correct problems at the jail, the Texas Commission on Jail Standards has concluded that the jail will remain decertified for the third straight year.
During an inspection of the jail earlier this month, commission officials found that "although there were over 700 available beds, there were 548 inmates without bunks," which followed a 2005 commission report in which it noted that just under 1,300 inmates were sleeping on the floor. Meanwhile, Harris County officials continue to dawdle over increasing staffing at the jail and even are dragging their feet in regard to the Chronicle's open records requests regarding jail matters.
Last year, Scott Henson over at Grits for Breakfast wrote a fine series of posts that addressed the reasons for the problems at the Harris County Jail and what needed to be done to correct those problems. As has been the case for decades in Houston, Harris County officials continue to do the minimum necessary to avoid a state-mandated closing of the jail while avoiding the difficult work of actually addressing the causes of the jail's problems by implementing necessary changes in the jail's administration and the local criminal justice system.
A community's soul is often reflected by how the community deals with constituencies who are unpopular and have no political power. In the case of Houston and the people most impacted by the Harris County Jail, that reflection is ugly and -- as shown by this community's remarkable response to the Gulf Coast evacuees last year after Hurricane Katrina -- not an accurate indication of our community's conscience. It is well-past time that Harris County officials prepare and implement a plan to resolve the local jail's chronic problems once and for all, and here's hoping that the Chronicle and the TCJS stay on their tails until they do. Houston deserves better.
Posted by Tom at 5:53 AM
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July 31, 2006
Colbert strikes yet again
Eventually, Congressional staffers are going to refuse to allow their bosses to be interviewed by Comedy Central's Stephen Colbert (previous posts here).
However, until they do, let's continue to enjoy Colbert exposing the hilarious (and somewhat frightening) lack of perspective among our nation's members of Congress, this time of Eleanor Holmes Norton of the District of Columbia (remember, it's not a state):
Posted by Tom at 7:28 AM
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July 28, 2006
Let's do lunch

Yes, lunch in LA can be so interesting.
You remember Barry Munitz, don't you? Former UH wunderkind president, Maxxam executive, California state university administrator and besieged Getty Museum director, the talented Mr. Munitz certainly knows how to get around the key social circles in SoCal. Previous posts on Munitz are here.
And remember California attorney general Bill Lochyer? He is that gem of statesmanship who told an interviewer in 2001 during the aftermath of the California power crisis that "I would love to personally escort [the late former Enron chairman and CEO Ken] Lay to an 8-by-10 cell that he could share with a tattooed dude who says, 'Hi, my name is Spike, honey.'" Of course, left unsaid by Lockyer was that Lay and Enron had little to do with that crisis, which was caused primarily by California state politicians (including then state senator Lockyer) who botched deregulation of electric utilities by freezing retail power rates while utilities bought juice from a newly-created wholesale market at prices that had no caps. Lockyer is the sort of politician who prefers to rely on myths and appeal to resentment rather than confront the truth.
Lockyer's office launched an investigation of then Getty Museum chief Munitz in mid-2005 after the LA Times reported that Munitz had made grants to friends, demanded a raise amid cost-cutting, traveled lavishly, expense and used staff to perform personal errands, all at the expense of the non-profit Getty (subsequent post here). Munitz resigned as the Getty Museum CEO this past February, agreeing to forgo more than $2 million under his contract with the Getty and to reimburse the non-profit $250,000 to resolve "continuing disputes."
However, it's now almost August and still nothing has been heard from Lockyer's investigation of Munitz. So, the LA Times started nosing around and asking questions and, earlier this week, Lockyer responded to the Times by admitting that he and Munitz had met in mid-January for lunch (at LA's Rocket Pizza, which has very good crust), smack dab in the middle of Lockyer's investigation of Munitz and a month before Munitz bailed out from the Getty.
Lockyer, who is now running for California state treasurer (can't this guy get a real job?), is in full retreat over the disclosure. He actually told the Times that the get-together did not violate his unwritten policy of not meeting alone with targets of an investigation because the probe was not discussed.
"This was, in my mind, lunch with a personal friend that I've known for a long time and it didn't have anything to do with the case," he said. . . "I was being a good listener, kind of consoling him as he leaves a job that he loves," said Lockyer, characterizing the discussion, which eventually shifted to books and movies, as "therapy with a friend."
I bet the pizza was good, too.
Posted by Tom at 4:57 AM
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July 18, 2006
Innocence as a distraction
David Dow, a University Distinguished Professor of Law at the University of Houston, is one of nation's leading experts on the death penalty and the author of Executed on a Technicality: Lethal Injustice on America's Death Row (Beacon 2006) (previous death penalty posts here). Rick Garnett passes along this NY Times op-ed from several weeks ago in which Professor Dow makes the interesting point that "innocence is a distraction" in the political and legal debate over capital punishment:
For too many years now, though, death penalty opponents have seized on the nightmare of executing an innocent man as a tactic to erode support for capital punishment in America.Innocence is a distraction. . . [M]ost people on death row did what the state said they did. But that does not mean they should be executed.
Focusing on innocence forces abolitionists into silence when a cause célèbre turns out to be guilty. When the DNA testing [proved that such a defendant] was a murderer, and a good liar besides, abolitionists wrung their hands about how to respond. They seemed sorry that he had been guilty after all.
I, too, am a death penalty opponent, but I was happy to learn that [the defendant] was a murderer. I was happy that the prosecutors would not have to live with the guilt of knowing that they sent an innocent man to death row. . . .
As Justice Scalia has said elsewhere, of course we are going to execute innocent people if we have the death penalty. The criminal justice system is made up of human beings, and fallible beings make mistakes.
But perhaps that is a price society is willing to pay. If the death penalty is worth having, it might still be worth having, despite the occasional loss of innocent life. . .
[We] ought to focus on the far more pervasive problem: that the machinery of death in America is lawless, and in carrying out death sentences, we violate our legal principles nearly all of the time.
Professor Dow nails the key issue in the death penalty debate. Proponents of the death penalty reason that it is not wrong for the state to kill a person as punishment for murder where that person was lawfully convicted in a fair and accurate criminal justice process. However, reasonable proponents of the death penalty must confront the reality that errors will occur in carrying out the death penalty in even a morally-justified criminal justice system. By making the above-stated moral justification the central issue in the debate, proponents of the death penalty are overlooking the glaring defects in the process that undermine the moral justification.
Posted by Tom at 5:08 AM
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July 14, 2006
Nice gesture, but what about these folks?
This NY Times article reports on Utah Senator Orrin G. Hatch's intervention recently on behalf of Dallas Austin, a 35-year-old, black record producer who had been arrested, convicted and sentenced to four years in prison in Dubai for possession of about a gram of cocaine. Kudos to Senator Hatch for helping prevent a talented man from enduring an injustice over a victimless crime.
But as noted in this previous post, the American criminalization of drug possession is a costly nightmare on many fronts. Currently, over 350,000 people languish in American prisons for drug possession. Commenting on Senator Hatch's intervention on behalf of Austin, David Boaz over at the Cato @ Liberty blog observes:
Surely Hatch thinks regular old Americans are due the same consideration as a Grammy-winning singer. He’d advocate the release of any American convicted of possessing 1.26 grams of cocaine, right?Or are politicians hypocrites? Could it be that they think average Americans like Richard Paey should go to jail for using large amounts of painkillers, but not celebrities like Rush Limbaugh? Could it be that they laugh about their own past drug use while supporting a policy that arrests 1.5 million Americans a year, as a classic John Stossel “Give Me a Break” segment showed? (Not online, unfortunately, but you can read a commentary here.)
Putting people in jail for using drugs is bad enough. Putting the little people in jail while politicians chortle over their own drug use and pull strings to get celebrities out of jail is hypocrisy on a grand scale.
Posted by Tom at 5:21 AM
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July 12, 2006
"Could adversely effect public safety?"
The legal and political maneuvering in regard to former Houston Congressman and House Majority Leader Tom DeLay is hard to keep up with, so I rely on Kuff and others to keep me informed of what's going on in that ongoing saga. However, this Austin American-Statesman article on a seemingly innocuous aspect of the legal battle caught my eye.
Seems as if the Chronicle filed a request in March under Texas' open records law for vouchers, travel receipts, budget documents, memos and e-mails in regard to the expenses of Travis County DA Ronnie Earle's investigations of DeLay and related cases of DeLay's associates. Earle rejected the Chronicle request and appealed to Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott, who ruled that that the law requires disclosure of "information in an account, voucher, or contract" relating to the expenditure of public monies.
Rather than simply complying with what appears to be a straightforward open records request and ruling, Earle announced this past Monday that he had sued Abbott in an attempt to avoid public disclosure of the information, claiming that such a release "could adversely effect public safety."
Release of travel receipts "could adversely effect public safety"? (I think Earle meant "affect"). H'mm. Stayed tuned on this one. Kevin Whited has more here. Hat tip to Letter of Apology for the link to the article.
Posted by Tom at 6:59 AM
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June 30, 2006
Feds finally get Scrushy
After failing to convict former HealthSouth chairman and CEO in a highly-publicized business fraud prosecution almost exactly a year ago, federal prosecutors obtained a conviction of Scrushy and former Alabama governor Don E. Siegleman on multiple bribery, conspiracy and mail fraud charges relating to Scrushy's alleged bribe to Siegleman of $500,000 to procure a seat on a state regulatory board that oversees hospital construction projects. Two other defendants -- a onetime Siegleman aide Paul Hamrick and former head of the Alabama transportation department, Gary Roberts -- were acquitted on all charges.
Interestingly, the Scrushy-Siegleman jury had reported to the judge on several occasions over the 11 days of deliberations that It was deadlocked, and it is not immediately clear from news reports what ended the deadlock. In this particular case, Scrushy's defense team attempted to sway the predominantly black jury by comparing Scrushy to civil-rights figures of the 1950's and 60's who suffered injustice in Alabama and the deep South. Scrushy's defense team even included Alabama lawyer Fred D. Gray, who represented Rosa Parks when she was arrested in 1955 for refusing to give up her seat on a Montgomery, Alabama bus. As you might expect, prosecutors denounced the Scrushy defense team's strategy as a racially-motivated attempt to influence the jury while contending that Scrushy was simply using his money and power to gain political influence to help HealthSouth.
The 53-year-old Scrushy was convicted on six counts and faces a potential sentence of over 20 years in prison. Sentencing is expected to take place this fall.
Posted by Tom at 4:16 AM
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June 29, 2006
In a split decision, the winner is the Texas GOP. For now.
The Supreme Court issued its long-awaited decision yesterday (earlier posts here) ordering congressional districts in south Texas redrawn because a 2003 redistricting map orchestrated by former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay was designed to disenfranchise Hispanic voters so that vulnerable Republican incumbent Rep. Henry Bonilla could maintain his seat. However, a sharply-split Court rejected a broader Democratic challenge to the DeLay redistricting plan that prompted the new Republican majority in the Texas Legislature to throw out existing districts in favor of new ones designed for partisan benefit. Charles Kuffner, who has followed the redistricting case closely, has more here and an extensive archive on the case here. Amy Howe passes along what appears to be an interesting error in the opinion, a pdf of which is here.
The bottom line on this incredibly split-decision (the justices filed six separate opinions concurring and dissenting from parts of the ruling) is that that Justice Anthony Kennedy's controlling opinion leaves open the possibility that the Court could step in someday to set limits for partisan gerrymanders if future litigants find "a manageable, reliable measure of fairness" for doing so. Four liberal-leaning justices joined Justice Kennedy in concluding that the south Texas districts violated the Voting Rights Act and must be redrawn. But Justice Kennedy and the four more conservative justices concluded that the state-wide map complied with Constitutional requirements and that a second district -- which Democrats claimed disenfranchised black voters in Austin -- posed no voting-rights violation. Just to give you an idea of how the Court is all over the place on these issus, Justices Thomas and Scalia would have simply dismissed the case as beyond the scope of the courts to resolve, while several Justices -- including Samuel Alito and John Roberts -- were in a group that left open the possibility that the Court might in the future come up with a legal test to be applied in this type of case.
Posted by Tom at 5:06 AM
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June 17, 2006
The Lord of Regulation flunks geography
According to this NY Times article, Eliot Spitzer needs to bone up a bit on his western New York geography.
Posted by Tom at 11:27 AM
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May 24, 2006
Lloyd Bentsen, R.I.P.
Former WWII hero, Texas senator, Dukakis Vice-Presidential candidate and Clinton Administration Treasury Secretary Lloyd Bentsen died Tuesday in Houston. He was 85 at the time of death and had been largely out of the public eye for the past seven years or so after suffering a stroke. The Houston Chronicle story on his life is here.
Bentsen was a genuinely charming man and successful businessman who often seemed somewhat out of place in the dog-eat-dog world of politics in Texas and Washington. His political mentor was former legendary House speaker, Sam Rayburn, but Bentsen was not particularly close to the other Texas political icon of the 1950's and 60's, former President Lyndon B. Johnson. Most of Bentsen's political career occurred after Johnson had left office.
Bentsen was a member of the traditional part of the Texas Democratic Party that dominated Texas politics for over a century after Reconstruction, and he re-entered politics in the early 1970's to run against the standard-bearer of the more liberal faction of the party, Ralph Yarborough. Thus, Bentsen often sided with Republicans in political decisions, although he resisted the temptation to switch to the Republican Party as his Texas Democratic Party contemporary, former Texas Governor John Connally, did in the early 1970's.
Bentsen's popularity in Texas is perhaps best reflected by the fact that he won the 1988 Senate race by a large margin despite the fact that the Dukakis-Bentsen Presidential ticket lost the state to the Bush-Quayle ticket. Although Bentsen was able to help stem the demise of the Texas Democratic Party for a couple of decades, he and others in his faction of the party ultimately lost the war as the Republican Party began dominating Texas politics about the time that Bentsen retired from politics in 1994. After his retirement, Bentsen prepared an oral autobiography of his political and business career, which will remain confidential for five years after the date of his death.
A memorial service for Bentsen is tentatively scheduled for next Tuesday at First Presbyterian Church in Houston after a private graveside service at Forest Park Lawndale Cemetery.
Posted by Tom at 4:32 AM
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May 14, 2006
The one-time Wonderboy of the Texas Democratic Party
If you have any interest in Texas politics, then you will want to check out this NY Sunday Times article on Ben Barnes, pictured on the far right with former House Speaker Gus Mutscher, former Governor Preston Smith, former president Lyndon Johnson. Barnes is the now 68 year-old elder (some would say elder gadfly) of the Texas Democratic Party who was Speaker of the Texas House at the age of 26, Lieutenant Governor at 30 and washed up in politics at 34 in the wake of the Sharpstown scandal. The NY Times article notes the publication of Barnes' semi-autobiographical book, Barn Burning, Barn Building (Big Sky Press 2006) about his political career and the future of the Texas Democratic Party.
Despite leaving government 34 years ago, Barnes remains a fascinating character of Texas politics. He and the late John Connally made headlines in the late 1980's when their highly-leveraged real estate development business melted down into bankruptcy, although neither faced any criminal prosecution as a result of the business failure (high-profile bankruptcies did not necessarily result in criminal prosecutions back in those days). In the 1990's, Barnes was a member of a group that banked $23 million in a buyout of their lobbyist contract with Gtech, the gambling industry company that ran the Texas lottery under then Texas Lottery chairperson and current White House counsel, Harriet E. Miers. A subsequent lawsuit generated the 1999 deposition in which Barnes alleged for the first time that he had pulled strings as Speaker of the Texas House in 1968 to get President Bush into the National Guard and out of possible service in Vietnam. In a later highly-publicized 60 Minutes II interview during the 2004 presidential campaign, Barnes said he regretted that he had done so. Recently, Barnes has ruffled feathers in the Texas Democratic Party by supporting an independent candidate, Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, rather than the Democratic Party nominee, Chris Bell.
Over the past fifteen years or so, the Democratic Party has become an afterthought in Texas politics, which has not been a healthy development for the state. Barnes' book likely will include at least some insight into why that has occurred and, in so doing, perhaps provide some guidance on how the party can resurrect itself. If so, that just might be Barnes' most valuable contribution to Texas politics.
Posted by Tom at 8:47 AM
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April 19, 2006
The Texas Untouchables?
While perusing the Chronicle over the past couple of days, I came across this article about the Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission quietly suspending a program of stepping up arrests of intoxicated bar patrons after state legislators scheduled a hearing this week to investigate complaints from the public — and legislators — about how the arrests were being carried out.
I'm not a patron of bars, so I didn't think much more about the article until yesterday, when I read this follow-up article about the hearing. State Senator John Whitmire of Houston, who co-chaired the hearing and is usually quite supportive of the TABC, was reportedly outraged by the "cowboy attitude" exhibited by TABC agents, which included storming targeted bars while outfitted in full-SWAT team gear. Other committee members reported stories of patrons forced up against a wall en masse. In fact, a number of witnesses testified about being arrested without a sobriety test and, in one case, of being arrested after passing a Breathalyzer test. At one point, TABC even invited a local television camera crew to film their sting operations!
Now, let me get this straight. Alcohol control agents are dressing in SWAT gear to raid bars where people are drinking, all for a spot on the 10 o'clock news?
My sense is that we could use a bit of housecleaning at the TABC.
Posted by Tom at 5:35 AM
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April 9, 2006
An inside perspective on DeLay's fall
This Sunday Washington Post op-ed by John Feehery, Tom DeLay's former Communications Director, provides an interesting perspective on DeLay's fall -- that DeLay's strength of being willing to delegate was offset by his attraction to those who were willing to cut corners to win:
The overwhelming majority of DeLay's staffers were professional, honest and working in Congress for the right reasons. But Tom prized the most aggressive staffers and most often heeded their counsel . . . A former hockey player, Tony Rudy was DeLay's enforcer; he wasn't evil, but lacked maturity and would do whatever necessary to protect his patron. Ed Buckham, DeLay's chief of staff, gatekeeper and minister, constantly pushed DeLay to be more radical in his tactics and spun webs of intrigue we are only now beginning to unravel. And Michael Scanlon, who, in my experience, was a first-class rogue and a master of deception. People like Rudy and Scanlon pleased DeLay because they were always pushing the envelope . . . I don't know if Tom always knew what his staff was doing -- I know that I didn't. But I had my suspicions, and now I have seen them borne out.
Check out the entire piece. Hat tip to Josh Marshall.
Posted by Tom at 8:20 AM
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April 7, 2006
She's everywhere!
On the heels of her cameo at the Lay-Skilling trial, the ubiquitous one -- Houston Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee -- gets more camera time standing next to colleague Cynthia McKinney apologizing about waylaying a Capital Hill police officer. Slampo will be pleased.
Meanwhile, Eric Berger reports that Ms. Jackson Lee has gotten her way with regard to a matter of utmost importance to the Gulf Coast region.
You can't make this stuff up.
Posted by Tom at 8:21 AM
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April 4, 2006
DeLay is done
This NY Times article and this WaPo article are reporting that Houston Congressman and former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay will announce today that he is leaving Congress and pulling out of his ongoing re-election bid. Earlier posts on DeLay's mounting troubles over the past couple of years are here. Although DeLay won the Republican primary last month in his re-election bid, he still faced a tough re-election race against former Rep. Nick Lampson in November.
Once one of the most powerful politicians in Washington, DeLay was indicted in Travis County (Austin) last year for his role in allegedly routing illegal campaign contributions into Texas during the 2002 elections that followed a controversial redistricting effort in Texas that cemented Republican dominance of the Texas Congressional delegation. DeLay is also at the center of an increasingly broad Justice Department corruption probe of former Republican lobbyist and top DeLay fundraiser Jack Abramoff and former DeLay aides. Two of DeLay's former aides have pleaded guilty in the investigation and Abramoff was sentenced last week to over five years in prison after copping a plea deal earlier. DeLay has not yet been accused of a crime in the probe, but he appears to be a target of the ongoing investigation.
However, even if DeLay is not charged, he clearly displayed poor judgment in his personnel decisions. As this Wall Street Journal ($) editorial observed today:
What caused this outbreak of greed is impossible to know for sure. Clearly a sense of entitlement set in among some Republicans, who forgot why they were elected and began to believe that power was its own reward. We can recall when Republicans, back in the early 1990s, proposed to reduce the size of their Capitol Hill staffs in order to reduce the scope of Congressional mischief. That idea went away pretty fast once they became a majority.
Could this be the reason?
Posted by Tom at 4:32 AM
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March 29, 2006
Cap Weinberger, R.I.P.
Reagan Administration Secretary of Defense Casper Weinberger died Monday at the age of 88 after a short illness. Weinberger is best remembered for a combative style that likely had something to do with his indictment in the Iran-contra affair (for which he was later pardoned), but his impact on the American armed services is his far more important legacy.
At the time that Weinberger took over the Defense Department in 1980, the Pentagon was still in its post-Vietnam War funk that was exacerbated by the malaise of the Carter Administration. Although the Pentagon is a notoriously tradition-bound institution where new ideas that do not come through the normal chain of command are viewed by top Pentagon brass with skepticism, Weinberger developed a culture at the Defense Deparment that increasingly embraced intellectual ideas from non-conventional sources.
For example, Andrew Marshall in the late 1970's and early 80's argued from an obscure Pentagon office that wars could be revolutionized by precision bombs, unmanned planes and wireless communications that would allow the American military to destroy enemies from a distance. Similarly, the work of the late Pentagon iconoclast John Boyd and his acolytes in revolutioning the way in which the American military approaches war in the late 20th and early 21st century has been well-chronicled in Robert Coram's book, Boyd: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War (Little, Brown 2002).
The Pentagon brass often fought tooth and nail against the innovative ideas of people such as Boyd and Marshall -- and continues to do so today with regard to Donald Rumsfeld's ongoing reorganization of the Defense Department -- primarily because those new ideas often ran contrary to the sacred cow military appropriations that the Pentagon brass traditionally protect. However, Weinberger was instrumental in instituting the cultural changes at the Pentagon that altered that institutional mentality, and leaders such as Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney, and Colin Powell over the past two decades opened up and accepted recommendations from non-traditional Pentagon sources that have revolutionized and dramatically improved America's ability to conduct war in places such as Afghanistan and Iraq.
But for Cap Weinberger's leadership, the traditional Pentagon brass would have likely squelched those innovative ideas before they would have ever seen the light of day. That is not what you will read about in the traditional obituaries of Weinberger, but it may be his most important contribution as a governmental servant.
Posted by Tom at 5:42 AM
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March 28, 2006
The state of talk radio political discourse

First, outspoken actor Alec Baldwin goes on a radio talk show.
Then, Fox News pundit Sean Hannity calls in.
The result?
A quintessential example of the state of political discourse on talk radio.
Demogoguery continues to sell well in America.
Hat tip to TigerHawk for the link to the story.
Posted by Tom at 9:05 AM
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March 22, 2006
On federal deficits and debt ceilings
Clear Thinkers favorite James Hamilton points out in this post the seemingly non-partisan point that it is hypocritical for politicians in Washington to vote, on one hand, for spending and tax measures that generate the federal deficit while voting, on the other hand, against an increase in the debt ceiling necessary to service the deficit.
Then, commentators to Professor Hamilton's post promptly take his non-partisan point and turn it into a partisan issue.
Hilarity ensues.
Posted by Tom at 5:28 AM
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The Murray Plan
In this intriguing WSJ Opinion Journal op-ed, American Enterprise Institute scholar Charles Murray -- author of the new book, In Our Hands (AEI Press 2006) -- takes dead aim at the American welfare state:
This much is certain: The welfare state as we know it cannot survive. No serious student of entitlements thinks that we can let federal spending on Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid rise from its current 9% of GDP to the 28% of GDP that it will consume in 2050 if past growth rates continue. The problems facing transfer programs for the poor are less dramatic but, in the long term, no less daunting; the falling value of a strong back and the rising value of brains will eventually create a class society making a mockery of America's ideals unless we come up with something more creative than anything that the current welfare system has to offer.So major change is inevitable -- and Congress seems utterly unwilling to face up to it. Witness the Social Security debate of last year, a case study in political timidity. Like it or not, we have several years to think before Congress can no longer postpone action. Let's use it to start thinking outside the narrow proposals for benefit cuts and tax increases that will be Congress's path of least resistance.
Murray goes on to lay out his proposal, which he dubs as "the plan":
[The federal government] makes a $10,000 annual grant to all American citizens who are not incarcerated, beginning at age 21, of which $3,000 a year must be used for health care. Everyone gets a monthly check, deposited electronically to a bank account. If we implemented the Plan tomorrow, it would cost about $355 billion more than the current system. The projected costs of the Plan cross the projected costs of the current system in 2011. By 2020, the Plan would cost about half a trillion dollars less per year than conservative projections of the cost of the current system. By 2028, that difference would be a trillion dollars per year.
Murray concedes that there are many technical issues that need to be sorted out before implementing such a system, but addressing those is not the purpose of his piece. Rather, he addresses why such an alternative to the current system of federal entitlements is preferable from a policy standpoint:
[D]o we want a system in which the government divests itself of responsibility for the human needs that gave rise to the welfare state in the first place? I think the reasons for answering "yes" go far beyond the Plan's effects on poverty, retirement and health care. Those issues affect comparatively small minorities of the population. The more profound problem facing the world's most advanced societies is how their peoples are to live meaningful lives in an age of plenty and security. . .If you believe . . . that the purpose of life is to while away the time as pleasantly as possible, . . . then it is reasonable to think that the purpose of government should be to enable people to do so with as little effort as possible. But if you agree with me that to live a human life can have transcendental meaning, then we need to think about how human existence acquires weight and consequence.
. . . Aristotle was right. Virtue is a habit. Virtue does not flourish in the next generation because we tell our children to be honest, compassionate and generous in the abstract. It flourishes because our children practice honesty, compassion and generosity in the same way that they practice a musical instrument or a sport. That happens best when children grow up in a society in which human needs are not consigned to bureaucracies downtown but are part of life around us, met by people around us.
Read the entire piece. Regardless of whether you agree with Murray's plan, his ideas on the underlying individual and societal qualities that American governmental policies should promote is the type of clear thinking that we need in addressing the inevitable reorganization of the American welfare state.
Posted by Tom at 5:00 AM
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February 16, 2006
The power-law theory of homelessness
Malcolm Gladwell, he of Tipping Point fame, has authored this fascinating New Yorker article on homelessness, which includes a particularly interesting discussion of the health care costs for the chronically homeless. One example that Gladwell uses is the story of a Reno, Nevada homeless man nicknamed "Million Dollar Murray," who -- when all his health care and substance-abuse treatment costs were calculated for the ten years that he had been on the streets -- probably ran up a medical bill as large as anyone in the state of Nevada. As one sage Reno cop observed: “It cost us one million dollars not to do something about Murray.”
The entire article is a must read, and here is a snippet to give you a flavor for it:
In the nineteen-eighties, when homelessness first surfaced as a national issue, the assumption was that the problem fit a normal distribution: that the vast majority of the homeless were in the same state of semi-permanent distress. It was an assumption that bred despair: if there were so many homeless, with so many problems, what could be done to help them? Then, fifteen years ago, a young Boston College graduate student named Dennis Culhane lived in a shelter in Philadelphia for seven weeks as part of the research for his dissertation. A few months later he went back, and was surprised to discover that he couldn’t find any of the people he had recently spent so much time with. “It made me realize that most of these people were getting on with their own lives,” he said.Culhane then put together a database—the first of its kind—to track who was coming in and out of the shelter system. What he discovered profoundly changed the way homelessness is understood. Homelessness doesn’t have a normal distribution, it turned out. It has a power-law distribution. “We found that eighty per cent of the homeless were in and out really quickly,” he said. "In Philadelphia, the most common length of time that someone is homeless is one day. And the second most common length is two days. And they never come back. Anyone who ever has to stay in a shelter involuntarily knows that all you think about is how to make sure you never come back."
The next ten per cent were what Culhane calls episodic users. They would come for three weeks at a time, and return periodically, particularly in the winter. They were quite young, and they were often heavy drug users. It was the last ten per cent—the group at the farthest edge of the curve—that interested Culhane the most. They were the chronically homeless, who lived in the shelters, sometimes for years at a time. They were older. Many were mentally ill or physically disabled, and when we think about homelessness as a social problem—the people sleeping on the sidewalk, aggressively panhandling, lying drunk in doorways, huddled on subway grates and under bridges—it’s this group that we have in mind. In the early nineteen-nineties, Culhane’s database suggested that New York City had a quarter of a million people who were homeless at some point in the previous half decade —which was a surprisingly high number. But only about twenty-five hundred were chronically homeless.
It turns out, furthermore, that this group costs the health-care and social-services systems far more than anyone had ever anticipated. Culhane estimates that in New York at least sixty-two million dollars was being spent annually to shelter just those twenty-five hundred hard-core homeless. “It costs twenty-four thousand dollars a year for one of these shelter beds,” Culhane said. “We’re talking about a cot eighteen inches away from the next cot.” Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program, a leading service group for the homeless in Boston, recently tracked the medical expenses of a hundred and nineteen chronically homeless people. In the course of five years, thirty-three people died and seven more were sent to nursing homes, and the group still accounted for 18,834 emergency-room visits—at a minimum cost of a thousand dollars a visit. The University of California, San Diego Medical Center followed fifteen chronically homeless inebriates and found that over eighteen months those fifteen people were treated at the hospital’s emergency room four hundred and seventeen times, and ran up bills that averaged a hundred thousand dollars each. One person—San Diego’s counterpart to Murray Barr—came to the emergency room eighty-seven times.
Hat tip to Tom Mayo for the link to Gladwell's article.
Posted by Tom at 6:21 AM
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January 11, 2006
George Will nails the GOP
It's never pretty for the Republicans when George Will lays the wood to them, this time over the Abramoff scandal:
The national pastime is no longer baseball, it is rent-seeking -- bending public power for private advantage. There are two reasons why rent-seeking has become so lurid, but those reasons for today's dystopian politics are reasons why most suggested cures seem utopian.The first reason is big government -- the regulatory state. This year Washington will disperse $2.6 trillion, which is a small portion of Washington's economic consequences, considering the costs and benefits distributed by incessant fiddling with the tax code, and by government's regulatory fidgets.
Second, House Republicans, after 40 years in the minority, have, since 1994, wallowed in the pleasures of power. They have practiced DeLayism, or ``K Street conservatism.'' This involves exuberantly serving rent-seekers, who hire K Street lobbyists as helpers. For House Republicans the aim of the game is to build political support. But Republicans shed their conservatism in the process of securing their seats in the service, they say, of conservatism.
. . . ``K Street conservatism'' compounds unseemliness with hypocrisy. Until the Bush administration, with its incontinent spending, unleashed an especially conscienceless Republican control of both political branches, conservatives pretended to believe in limited government. The last five years, during which the number of registered lobbyists more than doubled, have proved that, for some Republicans, conservative virtue was merely the absence of opportunity for vice.
Read the entire piece.
Posted by Tom at 8:22 AM
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December 20, 2005
Where is the Lord of Regulation when you really need him?
Ted Frank asks that salient question in regard to the New York City transit workers strike.
Or does such an action not meet Spitzer's lofty standards?
Inquiring minds want to know.
Update: On second thought, maybe Spitzer isn't needed, after all.
Posted by Tom at 7:55 AM
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December 13, 2005
SCOTUS agrees to consider Texas redistricting cases
The Supreme Court on Monday agreed to review the controversial 2003 redrawing of Texas congressional districts that Democratic Party officials claim was unconstitutional because it disenfranchised Democratic voters and was improperly designed primarily to ensure the Republican Party's control of Congress. In so doing, the high court took on four cases that could have considerable impact on the next year's House and Senate elections.
The Texas districts were redrawn in 2003 under the direction of former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, who is currently fighting state criminal charges that were the result largely from the Republicans' financing of the redistricting initiative. The Texas redistricting that was in effect during 2004 election had a considerable impact, as four incumbent Democratic members of the Texas congressional delegation lost re-election, one switched parties, and one open Democratic seat went Republican. The Texas net gain of six seats was enough to offset other Republican congressional losses, and prevented the Democratic Party from strengthening its minority by three seats. If the Supreme Court strikes down the Texas redistricting plan, then the decision could give the Democrat Party a considerable boost during next year's elections by giving Democratic candidates a Supreme Court decision on which to base charges of cronyism and abuse of power against the GOP.
The cases revolve around the requirement that all states each decade must use revised census data to redraw congressional districts to adjust for population shifts. In order to fulfill the "one person, one vote" doctrine, each district should include about 600,000 individuals, but whatever party that controls Congress at a particular time has traditionally gerrymandered districts to facilitate the party's chances of retaining seats (and thus, power) in Congress. The Supreme Court will consider a number of issues in the four cases, including whether Texas violated the one person, one vote doctrine by using outdated census data in drawing the new districts, whether the plan constituted "partisan gerrymandering," and whether the redistricting map is constitutional under the Voting Rights Act. The Justice Department's Civil Rights Division recommended against approval of the 2003 Texas redistricting plan under the Voting Rights Act, but the Department and approved it, anyway.
Lyle Denniston over at the Scotus Blog provides the following analysis in his post the Supreme Court's decision to hear the cases:
When the new cases are heard, the focus will be on Justice Anthony M. Kennedy, who provided the decisive fifth vote on April 28, 2004, to keep alive the possibility that a judicial standard could be developed to judge political gerrymanders' constitutionality. He did so in the case of Vieth v. Jubelirer, a Pennsylvania congressional redistricting case. After that, in October 2004, the Court sent the Texas redistricting challenges back to the U.S. District Court that had rejected those claims, with instructions to reconsider the plan in the light of the Vieth decision. The three-judge District Court on June 9 of this year again rejected the challenges, putting new emphasis this time on the claim of a one-person, one-vote violation in the partisan gerrymandering.By the time the new cases come up for argument, there may be two new Justices joining in the review -- Chief Justice John G. Roberts, Jr., of course, but also Justice-nominee Samuel Alito, Jr., if the Senate has confirmed him by then. Roberts replaces the late Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist and Alito would replace Justice Sandra Day O'Connor. Both of those had voted in Vieth to deny judicial review of partisan gerrymander challenges, but that view did not prevail then.
The preliminary indication from the the Supreme Court is that oral argument in the cases will take place in the afternoon session on March 1, 2006.
Posted by Tom at 4:58 AM
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December 12, 2005
Kinky Friedman interview
Michael Schaub posts this interesting interview with Texas author, songwriter (The Ballad of Charles Whitman, They Ain’t Makin’ Jews Like Jesus Anymore and Get Your Biscuits in the Oven and Your Buns in the Bed), musician and independent gubernatorial candidate Kinky Friedman, which includes the following pearls of wisdom from the self-styled original Texas Jewboy:
Q: Do you think you’d be able to work with the Democrats and the Republicans in the state legislature?Absolutely. I will charm their pants off. Invite ‘em over, we’ll have some barbecue, smoke some cigars together, and we’ll get this thing rolling. And a lot of things can be done without the legislature, . . . I’d like to rename four state highways after Waylon Jennings, Willie Nelson, Bob Wills, and Buddy Holly. Not toll roads, by the way.
Q: (State) Senator Jeff Wentworth objected to naming a road after Willie Nelson this year.
That’s right! (Laughs.) But it was a toll road! Willie said he’s worked hard his whole life, and doesn’t want a toll road named after him, and that maybe the electric chair would be good.
Q: Who do you think was the last great governor that Texas had?
Great? Probably Sam Houston. It’s been downhill from there. I always like to quote Henry Kissinger, who said that 90 percent of politicians give the other 10 percent a bad name.
Q: You’ve talked about your “anti-wussification” campaign for Texas. What does that involve?
Making it okay to say “Merry Christmas.” Making it okay to smoke where you want to. Bringing back the Ten Commandments. I may have to change their name to the Ten Suggestions. I want to bring them back to the public schools. They were taken out not because of church and state, but because of political correctness. Some atheist came up and said he didn’t like the Ten Commandments. We all know what happens when an atheist dies. His tombstone reads “All dressed up and no place to go.” By the way, I’ve written my own epitaph, Mike, which is: “If you can read this, you’re standing on my head.” It’s a good one, ain’t it?
Read the entire interview. If Friedman stays in the race, then the television ratings for the upcoming Texas gubernatorial debates in 2006 may set records. ;^)
Posted by Tom at 6:40 AM
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December 11, 2005
Eugene McCarthy and Richard Pryor, R.I.P.

Former senator and Presidential candidate Eugene McCarthy and comedian Richard Pryor died yesterday. Here are McCarthy's NY Times and WaPo obituaries, and here are Pryor's NY Times and LA Times obituaries, along with this rather touching and sad post by Roger Simon. Moreover, Riehl World has this compilation of links to some very funny Pryor stand-up routines.
McCarthy's first and only serious Presidential campaign came during the tumultuous year of 1968. McCarthy's campaign was based primarily on opposition to the Vietnam War and it effectively ended the Presidency of Lyndon Johnson, who elected not to run for the Democratic Party nomination after McCarthy's anti-war campaign showed unexpected strength early in the campaign. After fellow Democratic Party candidate Robert F. Kennedy was assassinated in June (which occurred just two months after the assassination of Martin Luther King), the Democratic Party convention that year took place in Chicago amid riots and civil strife, and ended up nominating Senator Hubert Humphrey, who lost a close election to Richard Nixon. Although McCarthy went on to become somewhat of a Democratic Party gadfly over the ensuing decades, there is no question that his 1968 Presidential campaign sparked societal forces that changed the American political landscape dramatically -- the Democratic Party held the White House for 36 of the first 68 years of the 20th century, but has held it for only 12 of the past 37. McCarthy was 89 at the time of his death.
Pryor was a talented stand-up comedian and comedic actor whose career was cut short by self-destructive behavior. He almost died in 1980 after he set himself on fire while free-basing cocaine, but he ended up using the incident as a joke in his routine -- "You know something I noticed? When you run down the street on fire, people will move out of your way." Pryor was 65 at the time of death and had been suffering from the effects of multiple sclerosis for many years.
Posted by Tom at 5:26 AM
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November 22, 2005
Phil Gramm, comedian
This CNN article reports that former Texas senator and presidential candidate (for about 15 minutes) Phil Gramm cut the crowd up yesterday while testifying as a witness in the public corruption trial of former Illinois Governor, George Ryan.
While running for President in 1996, the Gramm campaign paid a rather large "fee" to a Chicago-based "consultant" who turned around and funneled the money to Ryan's daughters and two aides while Mr. Ryan was serving as Illinois Secretary of State. Prosecutors allege that the consulting fee was Mr. Ryan's requirement for endorsing Mr. Gramm in the Illinois Presidential Primary that year. Asked by prosecutors whether he would have approved of the payments to the Ryan daughters and aides if he had known about them, Mr. Gramm replied that he would not have approved of them, explaining:
"It's sort of like the difference between love and prostitution," the folksy former Texas senator testified, drawing gasps and laughter from spectators at a hearing with the jury out of the room. "You don't pay people to like you."
By the way, a Gramm aide also testifed that, when questioning a Ryan aide about the unusually large size of the proposed "consulting fee," the Ryan aide told him:
"That's the way we do things in Chicago."
Hat tip to the ever-alert Ellen Podgor for the link to the CNN article.
Posted by Tom at 7:42 AM
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November 21, 2005
Disassembling the case against DeLay
This earlier post noted the weak nature of the indictment against former House Speaker Tom DeLay, although the Republican outrage over the indictment rings somewhat hollow. But following up on the thought about the dubious basis of the indictment, former chairman of the Federal Election Commission, Bradley A. Smith, does the best job that I have seen to date of disassembling the case against DeLay in this Wall Street Journal ($) op-ed:
To summarize, the theory against Mr. DeLay goes something like this: Corporations made legal contributions to TRMPAC; and then TRMPAC made a legal contribution of this soft money to the RNSEC, which, as required by federal law, kept the funds in a separate account. The RNSEC then used an account containing individual contributions (hard money) to make otherwise legal contributions to 42 candidates for state or local office in Texas, including seven who may have been specifically recommended to them by Mr. DeLay and others. Somehow this series of legal transactions constitutes money laundering.
Two questions result. First, is it "laundering" when the law specifically allows corporate contributions to be used for administrative costs, and a party or PAC uses individual contributions thereby freed up to make increased candidate contributions? Second, even if so, in light of the unprosecuted and public ubiquity of the practice, on both state and federal levels, is it consistent with basic due process to now charge Mr. DeLay and his associates with a crime for which the possible penalties include life imprisonment?
Read the entire piece, which does an excellent job of explaining how politicians from both major parties routinely took advantage of loopholes in state and federal campaign finance law to engage in precisely the same conduct for which DeLay now stands indicted. This is the flipside of the same coin that reflects the increasing criminalization of merely questionable business transactions in the post-Enron era, a trend that has already resulted in grave injustices and daunting prosecutorial misconduct. If litigation over such issues is justified at all, these matters are best left for civil cases, where responsibility for any wrongdoing can be sorted out among multiple parties, the prejudicial effect of such litigation on future beneficial risk-taking can be minimized, and citizens going about their jobs are not in fear that, but by the grace of God, the government is not turning its overwhelming prosecutorial power in their direction.
Posted by Tom at 4:23 AM
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November 14, 2005
Rationalizing a bad system
Being independent politically, I tend to look for political issues where the right position is so clear that advocacy of the opposing view is an indication of a politician who is interested in something other than improving government. This Chronicle article addresses one such issue -- Texas' utterly unsupportable system of electing judges. This earlier Daily Texan article does the same.
Texas' system of judicial elections is, at best, not a good way to choose judges and, at its worst, a corrupt one. Along with former Texas Attorney General and state Supreme Court Justice John Hill, former state Supreme Court Justice Tom Phillips and many others, I have been supporting for over 20 years a new system for appointing judges in the Texas state courts similar to the appointment process that is used in the federal judicial system. This is not to say that the system in which federal judges is selected is perfect and does not generate a bad judge from time to time. But the risk of a bad judge reaching the bench in the federal system is far less than it currently is under the Texas system of judicial selection.
Although a growing number of Texans agree that elections are not the best way to choose judges, the tendency in Texas politics is for the party in control of the statehouse to support the current system because most of the elected judges are from that party. Inasmuch as the Republicans are now solidly in control of Texas state government, the GOP state leaders are in no hurry to change even a flawed system so long as it produces judges mainly from their party.
That is unfortunate. Virtually no Texas citizen knows all of the best candidates for the various judicial positions. For example, even though I have an active civil trial practice in both Harris and Montgomery Counties, I rely on the opinions of friends who practice criminal law to advise me regarding the best candidates for the criminal judgeships because I do not practice much in the criminal courts. Moreover, most lawyers are not trial lawyers, so even they have no or little experience on which to base an informed judgment about the best judicial candidates. Generally, lay people do not have the foggiest notion of who to select in Texas judicial races. Most folks simply look for a familiar name or two, sigh, and just make the best guess possible under the circumstances. Not exactly a sterling example of democracy at work.
Finally -- and perhaps most telling -- few of the best state court judges in Texas support the system. Few, if any, of the good judges enjoy the tedious and unbecoming process of soliciting campaign funds from the lawyers and law firms who practice in their courts. Moreover, the bad judges often favor attorneys who contribute to their campaigns and build huge campaign war chests that creates a disincentive for any good challenger to mount a campaign. Finally, as we have seen during the recusal motions in the Tom DeLay prosecution, the political affiliations of the judges often undermines not only the efficient administration of justice, but the public's perception of the integrity of the judicial system altogether.
Thus, this is one of those issues where -- regardless of your political affiliation -- the right answer is clear. Only a politician who is more interested in maintaining power than in improving the administration of justice would support the current flawed system. In that connection, please take note from the Chronicle article the position of Texas Governor Rick Perry regarding the issue -- he supports the current system.
Posted by Tom at 5:09 AM
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November 1, 2005
Criminalizing everything
George Melloan, the deputy editor, international, of The Wall Street Journal, has recently written two columns (here and here) in which he has addressed a common topic on this blog -- i.e., the increasing criminalization in American society of ordinary business practices. Following on those columns, Mr. Melloan notes in this WSJ ($) column that the equally dubious criminalization of politics that is evident in the Scooter Libby indictment is a likely precursor of an even greater threat to freedom in American society:
The prosecutorial tsunami that has swept through a land teeming with lawyers and litigants has now come lapping up on the shores of the First Amendment. Now that politics has been criminalized, can reporting on politics be far behind?If that sounds far-fetched, think how far prosecutors and state attorneys general have managed to stretch the reach of the law, tolerated by judges and a gullible press. A huge accounting firm, Arthur Andersen, was wiped out by an indictment because it failed to uncover the Enron fraud, something accountants are ill-equipped to do. Sarbanes-Oxley makes it hazardous to manage a company or sit on a corporate board because of the new liabilities it imposes. . . And then there's Eliot Spitzer, an AG who specializes in extracting confessions to non-crimes.
The next big story will be the debate over Mr. Bush's new nominee for the Supreme Court, Appeals Court Judge Samuel Alito. Advance word is that he, like sitting Justice Antonin Scalia, is concerned about abuses of constitutional law. That won't save Scooter Libby from the ordeal he faces, but the high court is very much in need of such views.
Finally, as noted earlier here, having encouraged abuse of state power against unpopular business executives, the Bush Administration and Republican-controlled Congress are now in no position to rein in similar abuses toward the unpopular politician of the moment.
What a mess!
Posted by Tom at 6:50 AM
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October 23, 2005
Longhorn football and Harriet Miers
Here's a good trivia question for your next tailgate party this football season -- What's the connection between Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers and Texas Longhorn football?
Larry Ribstein has the story about Ms. Miers' involvement in her former firm's settlement of claims arising from its representation of former All-American Longhorn placekicker, Russell Erxleben.
Posted by Tom at 8:11 AM
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October 20, 2005
Miers on business
Larry Ribstein notes in this post that, based upon Harriet Miers' investment track record, it may be a mistake to presume that she will be as adept on business-related issues as a Supreme Court Justice than a proven Judge such as, say, Edith Jones would be. But Professor Ribstein shares my view that we should wait to evaluate Ms. Miers' performance in the Judiciary Committee hearing before deciding whether to support her nomination, although he wryly notes:
I’m still reserving judgment until I see Miers’ performance in the Senate. But, then, I’m still expecting Ernie Banks to some day lead the Cubs in the World Series.
Gordon Smith shares Professor Ribstein's skepticism of Ms. Miers' track record on business-related issues.
Posted by Tom at 8:01 AM
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October 19, 2005
But Mr. Bork, what do you really think about the Miers nomination?
Robert H. Bork, whose own nomination to the Supreme Court generated the verb "to bork" in American political lexicon, lays the wood to President Bush's nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court in this Opinion Journal piece, which includes these gems:
There is, to say the least, a heavy presumption that Ms. Miers, though undoubtedly possessed of many sterling qualities, is not qualified to be on the Supreme Court. It is not just that she has no known experience with constitutional law and no known opinions on judicial philosophy. It is worse than that. As president of the Texas Bar Association, she wrote columns for the association's journal. David Brooks of the New York Times examined those columns. He reports, with supporting examples, that the quality of her thought and writing demonstrates absolutely no "ability to write clearly and argue incisively."
The administration's defense of the nomination is pathetic: Ms. Miers was a bar association president (a nonqualification for anyone familiar with the bureaucratic service that leads to such presidencies); she shares Mr. Bush's judicial philosophy (which seems to consist of bromides about "strict construction" and the like); and she is, as an evangelical Christian, deeply religious. That last, along with her contributions to pro-life causes, is designed to suggest that she does not like Roe v. Wade, though it certainly does not necessarily mean that she would vote to overturn that constitutional travesty.
This George Bush, like his father, is showing himself to be indifferent, if not actively hostile, to conservative values. He appears embittered by conservative opposition to his nomination, which raises the possibility that if Ms. Miers is not confirmed, the next nominee will be even less acceptable to those asking for a restrained court. That, ironically, is the best argument for her confirmation.
Read the entire piece, which is quite devastating. By the way, Mr. Bork includes as a part of the op-ed one of the best shorthand descriptions of the judicial philosophy of originalism:
Originalism simply means that the judge must discern from the relevant materials -- debates at the Constitutional Convention, the Federalist Papers and Anti-Federalist Papers, newspaper accounts of the time, debates in the state ratifying conventions, and the like -- the principles the ratifiers understood themselves to be enacting. The remainder of the task is to apply those principles to unforeseen circumstances, a task that law performs all the time. Any philosophy that does not confine judges to the original understanding inevitably makes the Constitution the plaything of willful judges.
Posted by Tom at 6:06 AM
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Income tax panel announces overhaul proposals
Income tax simplification is a recurring subject on this blog, so I took notice of this NY Times article regarding yesterday's announcement that President Bush's tax-overhaul panel had agreed to offer two alternatives to the present tax code -- one alternative that essentially streamlines the current income tax and a second, bolder alternative that would replace it with a progressive tax on consumption. Although both proposals would do away with the deduction for state and local taxes, limit the current deduction for home-mortgage interest and tube the unpopular alternative minimum tax, the two plans differ in their approach to taxing business.
Both proposals will be included in the panel's final November 1 report to the Treasury Department, and the report is expected to be the framework for legislative proposals regarding overhauling the tax code next year. The income tax that the panel approved in principle yesterday is based on the following basic framework:
Creating four income-tax brackets of 15%, 25%, 30% and 33%, which is below the current top rate of 35%;Reducing the top corporate-tax rate to 32% from 35%, eliminating the corporate alternative minimum tax and eliminating the tax on profits from active businesses overseas so that firms could repatriate overseas profits tax-free;
Reducing the tax on capital gains to 25% of the ordinary income-tax rate, or a top rate of 8.25%, which is less than the current 15%;
Eliminating the tax on dividends;
Creating a new limit on health insurance provided tax-free by employers of about $11,000 for families, $5,000 for individuals;
Replacing the mortgage-interest deduction with a tax credit equal to 15% of mortgage interest paid, but limiting it to interest on mortgages between $172,000 and $312,000 depending on the geographic region;
Eliminating the "marriage penalty" by providing a family credit of $1,650 for singles and $3,300 for couples;
Simplifying tax breaks for savings; and
Reducing the Form 1040 tax return to 32 lines from 75.
The second, bolder alternative would fundamentally change the U.S. tax code toward an approach of taxing spending rather than income in an effort to encourage saving, investment and economic growth. For individuals, it would have two major exceptions from the other alternative -- its four tax brackets would be 15%, 25%, 30% and 35%, and it would impose a flat 15% tax on dividends, capital gains and interest.
However, the second alternative would take a very different approach in tax policy toward business, although the top corporate rate would remain at 32%. Companies would be allowed to expense all capital spending in the first year (rather than of depreciating it over time), but businesses would no longer be allowed to deduct interest payments.
As the blogosphere digests these two proposals over the next several days, I will provide links to insightful expert analysis of the proposals.
Posted by Tom at 4:44 AM
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October 13, 2005
All about Miers
Here are a couple of sites that provide comprehensive information regarding President Bush's nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court:
This University of Michigan Law Library site is a good resource for background materials on Ms. Miers (hat tip to Tom Mighell for the link);and
This Legacy Network site that provides a comprehensive outline of, and background materials on, the pro and con arguments in regard to the Miers nomination (hat tip to Gordon Wood for the link).
Better, I think, to focus one's evaluation of the nomination based on information gleaned from these resources than this type of thing.
Posted by Tom at 8:32 AM
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October 12, 2005
Miers nomination = the Peter Principle?
Although not particularly impressed by the nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court, I decided to wait to evaluate her performance during the Judiciary Committee hearings before finally deciding whether to support or not support her nomination (as if anyone cares what I think, anyway!) ;^).
However, several bloggers are doing a good job discussing the implications of the nomination, particularly Stephen Bainbridge and William Dyer. Most of the debate from such responsible bloggers is well-reasoned and above-board, but David Frum weighed in a couple of days ago (see post "What the Insiders are Saying") with a post based on alleged well-placed confidential sources who contend that the Miers nomination is the product of the Peter Principle.
Welcome to the big leagues of petty politics, Harriet.
Posted by Tom at 8:36 AM
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October 7, 2005
Louie Freeh goes J. Edgar on Bill Clinton
Does it ever seem as if, whenever 60 Minutes needs a rating boost, they do a Bill Clinton-scandal story?
At any rate, get ready for another such segment. Former Clinton Administration FBI Director Louis J. Freeh is promoting his new book My FBI: Bringing Down the Mafia, Investigating Bill Clinton, and Fighting the War on Terror (St. Martin's Press 2005), and this Washington Post article indicates that his 60 Minutes interview with Mike Wallace will be a general hammering session on former President Clinton:
Former FBI director Louis J. Freeh has denounced Bill Clinton over the scandals that marred his presidency and for his record on terrorism, saying the level of distrust was so great that he stayed in his post so Clinton could not appoint his successor.In a forthcoming book and "60 Minutes" interview, Freeh, whose strained relations with Clinton were no secret, says he was so determined to distance himself from Clinton that he sent back a White House pass so that all his visits would be deemed official. This, he said, antagonized Clinton.
The WaPo report triggered the crack Clinton Scandal Response Team into action:
Clinton spokesman Jay Carson said last night: "This is clearly a total work of fiction by a man who's desperate to clear his name and sell books, and it's unfortunate he'd stoop to this level in his attempt to rewrite history." He noted Freeh contributed nearly $20,000 to Republicans, including President Bush, in the last campaign.
Gosh, seems like old times, eh? In fairness to the Clintonites, Mr. Freeh's tenure at the FBI is not without its bipartisan critics.
Posted by Tom at 5:48 AM
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October 3, 2005
Can't say I expected this
President Bush has nominated White House counsel and Dallas-based attorney Harriet Miers to replace Sandra Day O'Connor on the Supreme Court of the United States. Ms. Miers has never been a judge before, the first such non-judge nomination since that of the late Chief Justice William Rehnquist.
Ms. Miers was the first woman to be president of the State Bar of Texas and, for a time during the President's stint as a businessman, she was his personal lawyer.
Howard Bashman has an extensive list of developing links on Ms. Miers. And Professor Bainbridge asks very reasonable questions and makes challeging observations regarding the nomination here. And Tom Goldstein and Lyle Denniston over at SCOTUSBlog are already expressing skepticism that the Senate will approve the nomination. On the other hand, William Dyer provides an impassioned defense of a nomination of a non-jurist to the Supreme Court.
Posted by Tom at 7:34 AM
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October 1, 2005
The real Republican deficit
Following on a theme addressed in this earlier post from last fall, this timely OpinionJournal op-ed points out that the real problem to the Republican Party represented by Tom DeLay is not his dubious ethics, but that he is devoid of ideas other than self-preservation:
The real danger for Republicans now isn't ethics; it is that, like those 1994 Democrats, they seem to have grown more comfortable presiding over the government than changing it. No one typified this more than Mr. DeLay, who has always been more fiercely partisan than he is conservative. . .. . . [T]he GOP Congress has become mostly about its money and muscle--and the incumbency it helps to sustain. The policy and intellectual fervor, such as it was, has all but vanished. Nothing typified that more than Mr. DeLay's comments on September 13, when he declared post-Katrina that there was nothing left in the federal budget to cut. They had already trimmed all the fat. . .
Read the entire piece. As OpinionJournal points out, if voters come to the conclusion that the GOP's primary ambition is simply to remain in power, then "no amount of money or muscle will save Republicans at the polls."
Posted by Tom at 10:47 AM
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September 30, 2005
The hypocrisy of Republican outrage over the DeLay prosecution
In reading the various Republican statements (see here and here) alleging that Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle is engaging in an outlandish abuse of power in regard to his decision to indict House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, a thought occurred to me.
For the past several years, the Justice Department under the Bush Administration has engaged in numerous and similar abuses of power. As a result, where is the Republican outrage over the sad cases of Daniel Bayly, William Fuhs, Arthur Andersen and Jamie Olis, to name just a few?
As I have noted many times, Sir Thomas More explains in the following passage from A Man for All Seasons why it is important to uphold the rule of law to constrain the abuse of overwhelming state power, even where doing so means that the Devil himself cannot be prosecuted unless he actually commits a crime:
"And when the last law was down, and the Devil turned 'round on you, where would you hide, Roper, the laws all being flat? This country is planted thick with laws, from coast to coast, Man's laws, not God's! And if you cut them down -- and you're just the man to do it, Roper! -- do you really think you could stand upright in the winds that would blow then?""Yes, I'd give the Devil the benefit of law, for my own safety's sake!"
The Bush Administration, Mr. DeLay and many of the Republicans who are criticizing Mr. Earle failed to uphold the rule of law in preventing prosecutions of business executives whose only "crime" was to be involved in arguably questionable business transactions that, at most, should have been the subject of civil litigation. Thus, the Republicans' irresponsible sacrifice of these executives' careers to the mantle of fickle public opinion has now contributed to the current environment where their own attempts to take advantage of loopholes in campaign finance laws is being criminalized.
Although abuse of state power against controversial politicians should not be condoned any more than abuse of state power against unpopular business executives, the Republicans' criticism of the DeLay prosecution rings hollow. They should have listened to Sir Thomas.
Posted by Tom at 7:11 AM
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September 29, 2005
The Hammer's indictment
In one of the least surprising developments in Texas politics over the past couple of years, a Travis County (Austin area) grand jury on Wednesday charged Houston Congressman and House Majority Leader Tom DeLay and two political associates -- John Colyandro, former executive director of the Texas political action committee that Mr. DeLay helped form, and Jim Ellis, who heads Mr. DeLay's national political action committee -- with criminal conspiracy in an alleged campaign finance scheme that has been under investigation for almost two years. That investigation and Mr. DeLay have been frequent topics on this blog, as posts here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here reflect. Here is a copy of the indictment.
In a press release and news conference on Wednesday afternoon, Mr. DeLay insisted he was innocent and called Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle a partisan fanatic, which is not a compelling criticism of Mr. Earle. Nevertheless, Mr. Earle has made some imprudent public statements about Mr. DeLay during the investigation. By the way, Fred Graham of Court TV made one of the funniest comments that I've heard on television recently when, after hearing Mr. DeLay's press release and news conference, he observed "if a press release could froth at the mouth, this would be foaming."
Criminal conspiracy is a state felony punishable by six months to two years in a state jail and a fine of up to $10,000. The indictment forced Mr. DeLay to step down temporarily as House Majority Leader under House Republican rules.
Although a bit skimpy on the allegations relating to specific criminal acts, the indictment accuses Mr. DeLay of a conspiracy to "knowingly make a political contribution" in violation of Texas law outlawing corporate contributions. It alleged that DeLay's Texans for a Republican Majority political action committee accepted $155,000 from several companies, deposited the money in an account, wrote a $190,000 check to an arm of the Republican National Committee and then provided the committee with the names of Texas State House candidates and the amounts they were supposed to received in donations. Thus, Mr. Earle is apparently contending that the Texas PAC simply used the GOP National Committee organization as a conduit to funnel the illegal corporate contributions to the GOP candidates. The indictment against Mr. DeLay came on the final day of the grand jury's term and followed earlier indictments of a state political action committee founded by Mr. DeLay and three of his political associates.
The background of this mess harkens back to 1990 or so when the re-energized Republican Party in Texas decided that it could wrest the Texas House away from the Democratic Party. GOP party leaders aimed to take control in the 2000 so that the House, the Senate and the state's Republican governor could have control of redrawing the state's congressional district lines when the Legislature met after the 2000 census. After spending an extraordinary amount of money, the GOP fell short in 2000 and the Democratic House speaker refused to go along with the governor and Senate's effort to reconfigure the state's district lines so that a half-dozen more congressional seats could be won by Republicans.
That's when Mr. DeLay went to work. He created a political action committee in Texas that was modeled on his own very successful national PAC. Texans for a Republican Majority was equally successful, raising $1.5 million and electing 15 or so new Republican members to the state House. Thus, the GOP took control of the Texas House for the first time in about 125 years and then, with a GOP Texas House Speaker, Mr. DeLay oversaw the redrawing of the state's congressional districts that provided the GOP with I believe six new seats in Congress.
However, at the end of the day, this is a very weak indictment. From a strategic standpoint, Mr. Earle doesn't want to show too much of his hand at this point, but a prosecutor should be required to state with a fair degree of specificity the criminal acts that he contends occurred. Mr. Earle has not done that in regard to Mr. DeLay in the current indictment.
By the way, Mr. DeLay has purchased a first-rate defense team, which includes well-known Houston defense attorney, Dick DeGuerin. You may recall that Mr. DeGuerin recently obtained a rather extraordinary acquittal for a client who had far more difficult problems than Mr. DeLay does.
Finally, Dick DeGuerin -- like Mr. Earle, the prosecutor -- is a Democrat. So, one of the leading Republicans in the U.S. Congress is going to be prosecuted and defended by Democrats.
Only in Texas. ;^)
Local Houston blogger Charles Kuffner has followed the DeLay case closely, and is a very good informational resource on the background of the investigation.
Update: Professor Bainbridge adroitly sums up his feelings about the DeLay affair with a joke that is as good as Fred Graham's above comment on the DeLay news conference.
Posted by Tom at 4:04 AM
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September 27, 2005
More trouble for DeLay friend?
This NY Times article reports that the Justice Department's inspector general and the F.B.I. are looking into the November, 2002 demotion of Frederick A. Black, a veteran federal prosecutor whose reassignment shut down a criminal investigation that he had been pursuing of Washington lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Mr. Abramoff is a well-known Washington lobbyist and a major Republican Party fund-raiser who is a close confidant of Houston congressman and House Majority Leader, Tom DeLay. Here are the previous posts relating to a broad corruption investigation of Mr. Abramoff focusing on accusations that he defrauded Indian tribes and their gambling operations out of millions of dollars in lobbying fees.
The focus of this newly-revealed investigation is different from the broader corruption probe involving Mr. Abramoff. In this case, the subject is Mr. Black's demotion only days after he had notified the department's public integrity division in Washington that he had opened a criminal investigation into Mr. Abramoff's lobbying activities for federal judges in Guam, who had sought Mr. Abramoff's help in blocking a bill in Congress to restructure the island court system. In addition, Mr. Black was subsequently blocked from participation in public corruption cases after his demotion. According to the Times article, no evidence has been uncovered to date that indicates that any Justice Department official took the action against Mr. Black in response to any communication from or on behalf of Mr. Abramoff, and evidence does exist that the Bush Administration had been preparing to install a permanent U.S. Attorney to replace Mr. Black at the time.
Nevertheless, the timing of Mr. Black's demotion sure stinks. Stay tuned.
Posted by Tom at 6:49 AM
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September 19, 2005
Do you ever feel this way?
Theodore Dalrymple is probably best known for his weekly columns in The Spectator and his essays in the American quarterly City Journal. He is a psychiatrist working in an inner city area in Britain where he is affiliated with a large hospital and a prison. His columns report on the lifestyles and ways of thinking of Britain's growing underclass, and in his book, Life at the Bottom, he warns that this underclass culture is spreading through society.
In his latest City Journal piece, Mr. Dalrymple expresses the frustration that he feels in responding to the various pooh-bah theories that seem to abound these days:
In Australia recently, I shared a public platform with an educationist, who had won awards for social innovation in the field of education for disadvantaged minorities. I was looking forward to what she had to say.I was soon in a towering rage, however. She uttered some of the most foolish cliches of radical education theory, now about 40 years old—theories that I had fondly thought were now behind us, . . .
Halfway through my own reply, however, I suddenly became bored. Why do I spend so much time arguing against such obvious rubbish, which should be both self-refuting and auto-satirizing the moment someone utters it? Why not just go and read a good book?
The problem is that nonsense can and does go by default. It wins the argument by sheer persistence, by inexhaustible re-iteration, by staying at the meeting when everyone else has gone home, by monomania, by boring people into submission and indifference. And the reward of monomania? Power.
Read the entire piece. Hat tip to Craig Newmark for the link to Mr. Dalrymple's latest.
Posted by Tom at 5:43 AM
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September 15, 2005
Tom DeLay said what?
This Washington Times article refers to House Majority Leager Tom DeLay's recent comments regarding the Bush Administration's record on government spending:
House Majority Leader Tom DeLay said yesterday that Republicans have done so well in cutting spending that he declared an "ongoing victory," and said there is simply no fat left to cut in the federal budget.Mr. DeLay was defending Republicans' choice to borrow money and add to this year's expected $331 billion deficit to pay for Hurricane Katrina relief. Some Republicans have said Congress should make cuts in other areas, but Mr. DeLay said that doesn't seem possible.
On the contrary, the Bush Administration compares poorly with past administrations in terms of cutting non-defense governmental spending, approved outrageous and poorly-administered pork barrel spending, ushered in a huge unfunded increase in the government's future liabilities through the Medicare prescription drug benefit package, and has arguably presided over the biggest and most reckless deterioration of America's finances in history.
In what parallel universe is Mr. DeLay operating?
Hat tip to Arnold Kling for the link to the Washington Times article.
Posted by Tom at 7:21 AM
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Incredibly bad judgment
Sometimes I am left to scratch my head and ponder whether there is any adult supervision left in Washington, D.C. these days. The latest incident giving me pause is the disclosure that Senate Democrats have designated John W. Dean III as a potential witness today during Judge John Roberts' confirmation hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee.
Now, most of us older bloggers know all about John Dean, but younger folks might not. Mr. Dean is the convicted felon who somehow crafted his legacy of breaching the attorney-client privilege and testifying to Congress against his client (former President Richard M. Nixon) during the Watergate Scandal in the early 1970's into a job as an "expert" legal commentator for FindLaw.com. An example of his "scholarship" is this article in which he took the dubious position that Senator John Kerry would have a pretty good defamation claim against Swift Boat veteran John O'Neill, who is a longtime and well-regarded Houston attorney.
Recently, Mr. Dean has been writing articles on FindLaw.com opposing the confirmation of Judge Roberts and contending that the White House should release Mr. Roberts' documents from his time in the Solicitor General's office during the 1980's. Unfortunately for Mr. Dean, every Soliciter General in recent memory has taken the position publicly that such documents are covered by the attorney-client privilege and should remain confidential.
So, rather than rely on the advice of previous Solicitor Generals, the Democrats on the Judiciary Committee tap a convicted felon who violated the attorney-client privilege during the Watergate hearings to testify that the privilege should be violated again with regard to Judge Roberts' work on behalf of the Solicitor General.
What on earth are these people thinking?
Posted by Tom at 5:49 AM
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September 12, 2005
Bush = Carter?
The inimitable Professor Bainbridge is not happy with President Bush for a variety of valid reasons, and recently observed that the President may be becoming the Republican Party's equivalent of what former President Jimmy Carter has been for the Democratic Party.
The Professor's criticism of President Bush has merit. Regardless of what one thinks about the Administration's venture into Iraq, the Bush Administration has overseen a tremendously damaging criminalization of business interests, largely ignored health care finance reform and income tax simplification, increasd farm subsidies, installed tariffs for various products (including steel, lumber, and even shrimp), created a massive new prescription drug benefit, promoted dubious amendments to the U.S. Bankruptcy Code and nationalized airline security by folding it into a huge and ineffectual bureaucracy. That's not exactly a slate of accomplishments that exudes Presidential greatness.
But as bad as Jimmy Carter? No way. Refresh your memory of just how bad Mr. Carter was (and continues to be) in these reviews (here and here) of Steven F. Hayward's book about Mr. Carter, The Real Jimmy Carter. Even as bad as President Bush has been, he cannot limbo under the low bar that Mr. Carter established.
Along these lines, this Opinion Journal piece discusses a recent poll of historians who ranked Mr. Bush's performance as average among Presidents. Mr. Carter ranked as below-average, just a cut above "failure."
Posted by Tom at 5:19 AM
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August 21, 2005
Posner v. the Media
Three weeks ago, 7th Circuit Judge Richard Posner (prior posts here) penned this "review" of eight books on the media in the NY Times Review of Books. "Review" is in parenthesis because the piece was not so much a review of the eight books as a forum for Judge Posner to pass along his always entertaining views, this time on the media in America. Among his many observations, Judge Posner discounted the ability of even conscientious reporters and editors to put their personal beliefs aside to generate fair and honest journalism.
Well, in an interesting development, New York Times executive editor Bill Keller has written this Letter to the Editor (scroll down to the second letter) of his own newspaper in which he harshly criticizes Judge Posner's article on the media as, among other things, "tendentious and cynical." Bill Moyers and Eric Alterman also chime in. Finally, Dean Velvel provides this more extensive analysis on Judge Posner's article, and Professor Ribstein has an interesting view of the journalists' protective reaction to Judge Posner's criticism.
I look forward to Judge Posner's response, which will probably be published here.
Posted by Tom at 10:27 AM
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August 12, 2005
Abramoff indicted
Jack Abramoff, a lobbyist who is a top Republican fund-raiser and political ally of Houston congressman and House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, was indicted yesterday in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida on charges of defrauding two lenders in his purchase of a casino cruise line five years ago. Mr. DeLay is not mentioned in the indictment and apparently had no involvement in the activities that led to this particular indictment. As noted in these previous posts, the Justice Department is also investigating Mr. Abramoff for allegedly bilking four Indian tribes he represented in connection with his lobbying business.
The grand jury indicted Mr. Abramoff and a business partner for allegedly using a fake $23 million wire transfer in 2000 to help secure loans needed to purchase 11 cruise ships, 2,300 slot machines and 175 gambling tables in a deal for the $147.5 million SunCruz Casinos business operation. The indictment alleges that two lenders agreed to lend Mr. Abramoff and his partner $60 million for the purchase on the condition that the pair ponied up $23 million on their own. Mr. Abramoff and his partner are accused of falsifying wire transfer receipts to make it appear as if they had the $23 million. SunCruz later ended up filing a chapter 11 case.
Mr. DeLay's relationship with Mr. Abramoff came under media scrutiny and an ethics controversy earlier this year after it was reported that Mr. Abramoff or his clients had paid for Mr. DeLay to take several expensive tours of Scotland, London and Russia. Inasmuch as members of Congress are not allowed to accept trips from lobbyists, the matter has been under investigation by the House Ethics Committee, although the investigation has appeared to bog down over the past several months.
Posted by Tom at 5:08 AM
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August 11, 2005
The Power of Pork
Tory Gattis and I recently generated some interesting discussion regarding mass transit generally and light rail in particular in a series of posts (here, here and here). Part of the psychology in favor of the light rail projects discussed in that blog thread is that the federal government -- regardless of economic merit -- is going to throw some political pork barrel funds at light rail projects, so light rail proponents reason that we might as well claim our fair share.
Although that line of reasoning is understandable, it doesn't really make me feel any better about the pork being distributed in the first place. This Washington Post article provides a good analysis of the politics of the new transportation bill:
Three years ago, President Bush went to war against congressional pork. His official 2003 budget even featured a color photo of a wind-powered ice sled -- an example of the pet projects and alleged boondoggles he said he would no longer tolerate.Yesterday, Bush effectively signed a cease-fire -- critics called it more like a surrender -- in his war on pork. He signed into law a $286 billion transportation measure that contains a record 6,371 pet projects inserted by members of Congress from both parties.
$286 billion in 6,371 pet projects? Let's see, we have 535 representatives and senators in Congress. So, that's about 12 pet projects per representative or senator. But if the number and cost of those projects troubles you, just remember that it's all relative:
[White House spokesperson Trent] Duffy replied [to a question about the bill's cost] that Bush pressured Congress to shave billions of dollars off the bill, and he said spending is "pretty modest" when spread out over five years. The transportation bill, at $57 billion a year, is a fraction of Medicare's $265 billion.Besides, Duffy said, "the president has to work with the Congress."
In other words, we are supposed to feel better because the annual cost of the pork, when spread over five years, is only about 20% of the blackhole of annual Medicare expenditures.
Somehow, that doesn't make me feel all that much better. Here is another critical analysis of the bill.
Posted by Tom at 7:34 AM
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July 31, 2005
The psychology of light rail
Tory Gattis (Houston Strategies) recently authored this insightful post that explores the vexing question of why many people passionately support light rail in the face of the overwhelming economic arguments against it? Tory concludes that it has something to do with an unexpressed human psychological need to be liked -- sort of like, "Here, check out and play with my light rail toy, and you will probably think better of me."
Tory is clearly on to something in that there appears to be an element of a civic inferiority complex underlying some folks' support for light rail. However, Tory's point still does not explain why people who need mass transit the most -- i.e., folks who cannot afford the cost of buying and maintaining a car -- support light rail, which certainly does not improve their mobility and, by drawing resources away from mobility projects that would, probably harms it.
My sense is that that question lies somewhere between the human demand for entitlement and lack of viable choices. As previously noted on this blog, the true economic benefit of light rail is highly concentrated in only a few interest groups -- political representatives of minority communities who tout the political accomplishment of shiny toy rail lines while ignoring their constituents need for more effective mass transit, environmental groups that are striving for political influence, construction-related firms that feed at the trough of light rail projects, and private real estate developers who enrich themselves through the increase in their property values along the rail line. Inasmuch as none of these reasons for mass transit appeal to the part of the electorate who actually need mass transit, this amalgamation of interest groups continues to disguise their true interests behind amorphus claims that the uneconomic rail lines reduce traffic congestion (they do not), curb air pollution (they do not), or improve the quality of life (at least debatable). The literature on all this is public and volumnious -- check out demographia.com, cascadepolicy.org, and americandreamcoalition.org.
So, how do these interest groups get away with this? The costs of such systems are widely dispersed among the local population of an area such as Houston, so the many who stand to lose will lose only a little while the few who stand to gain will gain a lot. As a result, these small interest groups recognize that it is usually not worth the relatively small cost per taxpayer for most citizens who do not use mass transit to spend any substantial amount of time or money lobbying or simply taking the time to vote against an uneconomic rail system.
Meanwhile, the light rail interest groups garner support for light rail from the part of the electorate that actually needs mass transit by simultaneously limiting the mass transit choices and threatening that part of the electorate with loss of the governmental funds for mass transit if they fail to support light rail. Thus, a referendum on mass transit issues is never promoted with choices between alternatives such as a light rail system, one one hand, and a cheaper and more effective bus-based system system, on the other. It's simply an "all or nothing" choice, and folks who need mass transit will understandably vote in favor of getting their share of public transportation funds even if it does not improve their mobility one iota. Indeed, given the cost of light rail systems, one wonders how those citizens who actually need mass transit would vote if the alternative were a light rail system, on one hand, and a new Toyota Prius for each such citizen, on the other? Frankly, the cost of the latter alternative would likely be cheaper than most any light rail plan.
So, at the end of the day, where does that leave us? Is it wrong that people who need mass transit vote in favor of something that does not really address their needs? No, it does not, but it troubles me when they are misled in doing so. As Anne Linehan and Kevin Whited (blogHouston.net) have repeatedly pointed out, a part of Metro's pitch for its light rail plan was that light rail would enhance Metro's bus system and service. Inasmuch as that representation has turned out to be patently false, it seems reasonable that our public officials should at least be required to point out publicly that Metro's most utilized and efficient mass transit system -- i.e., the bus system -- will likely continue to erode as Metro continues to invest heavily in light rail.
In the meantime, it would also be nice if public officials would admit publicly that the usual economic justifications for light rail are also dubious. If mass transit users and other citizens want to allow Houston's public officials to continue to throw money at a light rail system in the face of the economic truth about such a system, then I can live with that result despite my compassion for those citizens who are not being provided the mass transit that they need. But at least let's require truth in advertising in connection with having citizens vote on such matters. A similar sentiment is shared in this interesting Owen Courr?ges post (Lone Star Times) in which he takes the Chronicle to task for suggesting that Metro's political opposition -- rather than Metro itself -- is misleading the public about Metro's expanded light rail plan.
Finally, Tory points out that we should take some comfort in the fact that Houston's light rail plan is at least not as big an economic boondoggle as similar plans proposed for Seattle and Denver. Similarly, a couple of commentators to Tony's post chime in that the marginal cost of the light rail system to Houston area citizens is relatively small for a civic asset that will impress citizens and visitors alike for many years to come. That latter point may have some validity, but let's make sure that we are talking about the correct marginal cost.
A big difference between the light rail system and the publicly-funded stadiums that Houston has built over the past several years are that the stadiums have tenants who pay the vast majority of the cost of maintaining the facilities. In comparison, Metro's light rail system does not come close to generating enough revenue to pay its ongoing costs, as was brought home by Metro's recent announcement of desultory operating results coupled with the expenditure of $104 million more on the three-year-old rail line to fix problems caused by construction errors and add more rail cars. In that regard, even the $1.5 million that Harris County spends annually to mothball the Astrodome pales in comparison to underwriting the ongoing cost of the light rail system. The bottom line is that light rail systems eat voraciously, and any analysis of the true marginal cost of such a system to citizens has to take into consideration the high cost of feeding that appetite.
Posted by Tom at 12:45 PM
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July 29, 2005
Judge Roberts and Rome
Over time, politicians will manage to stand just about any issue in American politics on its head.
Houston played host to one of the most important speeches of John F. Kennedy's 1960 Presidential campaign. Conventional political wisdom at the time was that a Catholic could not be elected President of the United States because of Protestants' perception that a Catholic would have to obey the Pope's commands over those of the U.S. Constitution. Mr. Kennedy finally decided to address the issue head-on, and on September 12, 1960, he delivered this statement to the Greater Houston Ministerial Association, in which Theodore White observed that "he knocked religion out of the campaign as an intellectually respectable issue."
Despite Mr. Kennedy's victory in the 1960 election, anti-Catholicism in American politics was not eradicated. This fact was reflected again earlier this week when Sen. Richard Durbin (D., Ill.) supposedly asked Supreme Court nominee John R. Roberts, Jr. during an informal interview "what he would do if the law required a ruling that his church considers immoral" and Sen. Durbin reported that Judge Roberts supposedly answered that he would consider recusal. Although Sen. Durbin quickly backpedaled, but, in the meantime, Jonathan Turley wrote this over-the-top L.A. Times op-ed (free regis. required) that challenged his "fitness to serve as the 109th Supreme Court justice" over that response. The L.A. Times followed that op-ed with this confusing editor's note, which noted the following about Mr. Turley's story regarding Judge Roberts' supposed recusal answer to Sen. Durbin's question:
Tuesday, Durbin's office said the story was inaccurate.Aides acknowledged that a question about faith and public policy had been asked, and that Roberts had discussed recusals ? but they said that the recusal answer wasn't in response to the question about faith.
Turley, however, says it was Durbin who gave him the original information in an on-the-record conversation. Turley says he then confirmed the substance of that conversation with another person who had been at the meeting.
Amidst all that confusion, Douglas W. Kmiec -- a Constitutional Law professor at Pepperdine University and the former dean of The Catholic University of America School of Law -- straightens everything out in this Opinion Journal op-ed. After noting Sen. Durbin's confusion and the fact that a religious litmus test for Supreme Court nominees would violate Article VI of the Constitution (the prohibition of religious oaths) and the First Amendment's free-exercise guarantee, Mr. Kmiec notes as follows:
Yes, the Catholic Church is a defender of life. It has even issued statements that sound suspiciously like a certain famous declaration of self-evident truth -- that we are all created equal, with an unalienable right to life. But the church is also resident in a world where Supreme Court precedent has tragically elevated personal preference over any once-proud declaration of right. What does the church expect of public officials in such an environment?First and foremost, to be observant of church teaching in one's personal life. The church asks Judge Roberts and his fellow parishioners to pray to end abortion and, in social outreach, to create the conditions that make it less pressing. The church seeks to convert individual souls to the love of God and neighbor; it has no armies to compel either.
Yes, the late Pope John Paul II admonished Catholic public officials to work legislatively to limit abortion -- something that even most Democrats proclaim to be doing at least during general elections. But there is not one iota of church teaching demanding that a judge or justice exceed the scope of his office to undo, on solely religious grounds, the public law of abortion or any other matter.
And, in explaining why a Catholic need not recuse themselves from judging the legality -- as opposed to the morality -- of abortion or the death penalty, Mr. Kmiec observes as follows:
These are matters of constitutional, not moral, authority. When [Sir Thomas] More was asked why he didn't arrest a man directly for being "bad," he replied . . . that, though he set man's law "far below" God's, he was most certainly "not God," and he wanted to draw "attention to [that] fact.""The currents and eddies of right and wrong, which [others] find such plain sailing," More said, "I can't navigate . . . But in the thickets of the law, oh, there I'm a forester. I doubt there's a man alive who could follow me there, thank God."
As with Sir Thomas, there are few matches for Judge Roberts in those "thickets of the law," which is where Democrats would be wise to evaluate Judge Roberts.
Meanwhile, while on the abortion issue, Todd Zywicki over at the Volohk Conspiracy notes that Fifth Circuit Judge and Clear Thinkers favorite Edith Jones' recent opinion in the McCorvey case -- noted in this earlier post -- was really more about stare decis than abortion.
Finally, did you know that Professor Zywicki has the first selection in his Fantasy Football League?
Update: Don't miss Professor Bainbridge's thoughtful analysis on Justices' religious faith and their legal decisions.
Posted by Tom at 6:09 AM
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July 28, 2005
Kelo ripples hit the Cowboys stadium project
As noted in this earlier post, the U.S. Supreme Court's recent decision in Kelo v. City of New London inevitably will have ripples, including the use of government's eminent domain power to increase the value of privately-owned professional sports franchises at the expense of private property owners.
Thus, it is not surprising that Arlington landowners have filed the first lawsuit over the City of Arlington's use of its eminent domain power to seize the landowners' land for the benefit of Jerry Jones and his Dallas Cowboys stadium project. The landowners contend that the stadium project -- although tacitly owned by the City -- is beneficially owned and certainly controlled by Mr. Jones through a long-term ground lease, and that using the government's eminent domain power to take private property from one person and give it to another is unconstitutional. Sounds like Kelo II, doesn't it?
In essence, this litigation is over who should be negotiating the sales price of the landowners' property -- Mr. Jones, who does not have the threat of eminent domain power, or the City of Arlington, which does? Inasmuch as Mr. Jones does not have as good a bargaining position as the City, the lawsuit brings into focus the key defect in the Kelo decision -- the shifting of leverage in negotiation over land prices in favor of the private developer and away from the landowner.
My sense is that this lawsuit and others similar to it will likely settle long before the legal issue ever gets to trial or an appellate court because the cost of such settlements is a fraction of the overall cost of the project. But that does not change the fact that the Supreme Court made a serious error in Kelo by holding that a "reasonably well thought out plan of [private] economic development" that may generate jobs and taxes for a local government is enough to trigger the government's use of eminent domain to hand over private land to a developer. In so doing, the Supreme Court has replaced the efficiency of market forces with the expediency of government fiat, which is why we have economic boondoggles such as those described in this post.
Craig Depken -- who has the best compendium of posts regarding the Cowboys stadium project -- has further astute thoughts here.
Posted by Tom at 7:11 AM
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A personal experience with Judge Roberts
Although I do not agree with the writer's conclusion, this post tells a personal story about Supreme Court nominee John G. Roberts, Jr. that reflects why he is one of my favorites for a spot on the Supreme Court and certainly will not result in this type of embarrassment. Hat tip to Craig Newmark for the link to the post on Judge Roberts.
Posted by Tom at 6:10 AM
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July 26, 2005
City Hall, San Diego style
A couple of former City of Houston aides have had a rough spot lately, but frankly our corruption is blase' compared to what's going on at City Hall in San Diego recently.
First, the San Diego mayor resigned a couple of weeks ago amidst a pension fund scandal. Then, after about 60 hours on the job, the mayor's interim successor -- along with another member of the San Diego City Council -- was convicted of conspiracy, extortion, and fraud in connection with a scheme to receive money for changing a city law to benefit strip club owners. With a new interim mayor and another mayor to be elected in a special election, that makes four mayors by my count in the space of just a few months. All of which prompted economist and San Diego resident James Hamilton to observe:
Forgive me if this sounds paranoid, but isn't this the same crowd to whom the Supreme Court gave the power to kick me out of my home in order to hand it to some developer? Not that any City Council members would ever let how much money they got from that developer influence their decision on something like that.
Posted by Tom at 5:31 AM
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Judge Roberts in action
Orin Kerr over at the Volokh Conspiracy refers us to this recent D.C. Circuit decision in which U.S. Supreme Court nominee John G. Roberts, Jr. wrote a lively dissent and, in so doing, provides a glimpse of why he was one of my favorites for nomination to the Supreme Court.
The decision involves a search and seizure case. The defendant was driving a car with the license plate light out. After police stopped him, it turned out that he did not have a driver's license on him, that his license had been suspended, and that the car had stolen tags. During the stop, the police could find not find anything that indicated that the car was properly registered. Thus, the police arrested the defendant and then they searched the car's trunk, where they found a gun. Wallah! The defendant was charged with a gun possession crime and we now have a search and seizure case.
When the officers searched the trunk, was there a reasonable probability that there would be additional evidence in the trunk? That's the search and seizure question being addressed in this particular decision. The majority opinion concludes that it's unlikely that there would be additional evidence in the trunk of the crimes that the police knew about at the time of the search. Judge Roberts dissents, reasoning that the arresting officers had a reasonable basis upon which to conclude that the car was stolen and thus, the search was justified because evidence of the true owner could well have been in the trunk.
However, as Mr. Kerr notes, the most interesting aspect of the decision is Judge Roberts' style. Non-combative but direct, he makes his essential point with a nice touch of understatement and pragmatism, while noting that the case was a close call:
Sometimes a car being driven by an unlicensed driver, with no registration and stolen tags, really does belong to the driver?s friend, and sometimes dogs do eat homework, but in neither case is it reasonable to insist on checking out the story before taking other appropriate action . . .
I wholeheartedly subscribe to the sentiments expressed in the concurring opinion about the Fourth Amendment?s place among our most prized freedoms. See Conc. Op. at 1, 5. But sentiments do not decide cases; facts and the law do. There is no dispute here on the law: if the officers had probable cause, they did not need a warrant; if they did not have probable cause, no warrant would issue in any event. As for the facts, the officers encountered at 1:00 a.m. an unlicensed driver operating an unregistered car with a broken tag light and stolen tags. The experienced district court judge concluded ? and I agree ? that "the circumstances were suspicious enough to amount to probable cause to search the trunk." Memorandum Order, at 5. Right or wrong, nothing about that determination reflected insensitivity to constitutional values, any more than a contrary determination would have reflected insensitivity to the needs of law enforcement.I respectfully dissent.
This is the work of a first rate appellate judge. Check it out.
Posted by Tom at 4:53 AM
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July 19, 2005
President nominates a Clear Thinkers favorite for the Supreme Court
President Bush's selection of D.C. appellate judge John G. Roberts Jr. to replace Sandra Day O'Connor on the U.S. Supreme Court is a solid one and should not lead to much of a confirmation fight. As noted in this post from earlier this year, Judge Roberts was my favorite candidate for one of the Supreme Court openings, a superb thinker and writer while on the D.C. Court of Appeals.
Stuart Buck passes along notes that, before Judge Roberts took the bench, Justice Scalia told one of Stuart's friends that he and several other Supreme Court Justices thought that Roberts was the best Supreme Court litigator in the country. The reason? Because he never became flustered during questioning and was always able to answer any question calmly while skillfully weaving in the substantive points that he wanted to make in the first place. As usual, the SCOTUS Blog has a fine compendium of resources on the Roberts nomination, including this post that reviews some of his decisions while on the D.C. Court of Appeals.
My sense is that the nomination of Judge Roberts means that there is a good chance that President Bush intends to nominate a woman to replace Chief Justice Rehnquist when he retires as expected in the near future. Hopefully, Houstonian and Fifth Circuit Judge Edith H. Jones will be in the running for that nomination.
Posted by Tom at 8:49 PM
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July 16, 2005
The abysmal condition of the Harris County Jail
Over my 26 year legal career, a local issue that has been continually discussed among Houston attorneys is the horrid condition of the Harris County Jail.
This is not an easy issue. The constituency most interested in the issue -- prisoners -- is neither attractive nor important to politicians. Similarly, the issue brings into sharp focus a public policy conflict that governments have ducked for decades -- i.e., the tendency of politicians to indulge the public demand for tougher sentencing for political purposes while attempting to avoid responsibility for most government's booming deficits and debt. Stated simply, politicians are not particularly interested in dealing with the fact that governments either have to accept that tougher sentencing means more prisoners and more money spent on building prisons or -- if government is not willing to spend the money -- fewer and shorter prison terms for offenders.
With that backdrop, it's not particularly surprising that, after noting that almost 1,300 inmates are sleeping on mattresses on the floor of the Harris County Jail while large sections of the jail are unused because of a guard shortage, the Texas Commission on Jail Standards has decertified the Harris County Jail for the second year in a row. This Steve McVicker/Bill Murphy Chronicle article reports on the Commission findings.
So, how are our politicians responding to this embarrassing problem? As you might expect, by blaming anyone other than themselves:
Calling the panel "a bunch of arrogant fools," Precinct 3 County Commissioner Steve Radack said Friday that the Texas prison system helped cause the problem by failing to take inmates off the hands of Harris and other counties on schedule."The state wants to send a proctologist down here to see what the problem is. And the problem is, (state officials) are the ones that have stacked up the system," Radack said. "If the state of Texas got its prisoners out of our jails and kept them themselves, we wouldn't have all these problems."
Unfortunately, there is a small problem with Commissioner Radack's criticism of the state prison system -- it isn't true:
Under an agreement between the state and the counties, TDCJ has a 45-day window to transport prison-ready inmates to state facilities. The prison system's Mike Viesca says the state is averaging 22 to 23 days in getting county inmates moved to state custody.
Meanwhile, Texas Governor Rick Perry is doing his part to ensure that the problem is not addressed responsibly:
State Sen. John Whitmire, D-Houston, expressed concern this week about a possible return to overcrowding in state prisons and county jails. . . Whitmire, chairman of the Senate Criminal Justice Committee, . . . voiced disappointment about Gov. Rick Perry's recent veto of Whitmire's legislation that would have lowered mandatory probation terms from 10 years to five ? a measure that Whitmire said would have reduced the prison population.
And it's not as if the governor and legislators are uninformed about the brewing problem:
In January, Texas prison officials told state lawmakers they expected to run out of prison space this year and may need an emergency appropriation to lease space in county jails. . . The prison system was at 97 percent of capacity then, with more than 150,000 inmates.
Meanwhile, Harris County Sheriff Tommy Thomas concedes that there are serious staff shortages at the jail, but for some reason has failed to bring this issue to the attention of the Harris County Commissioners in the form of a request for increased funding of the county jail system.
It has been often observed that the state of society's prisons are an accurate reflection of that society's values. The horrific conditions in the Harris County Jail are an outrageous and embarrassing reflection of our community's values. Take note of the politicians who continue to avoid addressing the problem, for they are the ones who fiddle while Rome burns. Unfortunately, they are so clueless that they do not know that they are fiddling, nor that Rome is burning.
Posted by Tom at 7:00 AM
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July 7, 2005
Chronicle weblog on terrorist attacks in London
Dwight Silverman, the excellent technology columnist for the Houston Chronicle who has sheparded the Chronicle's increasing contribution to the blogosphere, is contributing to this handy blog on the terrorist attacks of earlier today in London.
Check it out, as Dwight has included lots of good links to commentary and up-to-the-minute news reports. This "instant blog" on a breaking news story is yet another example of how weblogs are redefining the way in which information is delivered to the public.
Posted by Tom at 4:05 PM
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June 20, 2005
More on the City of Houston's troubled hotel investments
Anne Linehan over at blogHouston.net alerts us to this Chronicle article that updates the situation facing the City of Houston in regard to its investment in two downtown Houston hotels, The Magnolia and the Crowne Plaza. This earlier post examined the City's problem investments in the hotels, while this post addressed the soft market for hotel rooms in downtown Houston.
As Anne notes, not much has changed in regard to the situation since the prior report on the hotels' financial problems. The hotels are still not generating enough revenue to service the City's subordinated debt on the hotels, and it is not at all clear from the article that the hotels are even generating positive cash flow from operations exclusive of debt service. Thankfully, the City's total investment in both hotels is under $15 million, which is a drop in the bucket compared to this other dubious investment.
Nevertheless, after throwing a few $15 millions around, you could be talking about some real money, so the City needs to address the situation responsibly. As noted in the earlier post, despite its notes on the properties, the City is really just a preferred equity investor in these hotels. Consequently, the main issue at this point is whether the hotels are being managed properly and whether there is a reasonable chance that they can generate enough revenue to break even from an operations standpoint. Assuming a "yes" answer to those two questions, then the City simply needs to look at these properties as long-term (make that very long-term) investments that need to be monitored as a part of its long-term investment portfolio. The hotels could also be productively used as poster children from time to time whenever some City official floats the idea that it is good economically for the City to loan money on a project that private financing will not support.
On the other hand, if either of the answers to the foregoing questions is "no," that raises additional issues that a City government is institutionally incapable of handling well. In that event, some second or third buyer of one of these hotels might just be able to turn a profit on the City's dime.
Posted by Tom at 5:21 AM
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Updated roster of Supreme Court Justice candidates
Following on the NY Times list contained in this post from earlier this year, this Washington Post article reviews the likeliest pool of candidates that President Bush would draw from in nominating a new justice to replace any of the several elderly Justices who could retire in the near future from the U.S. Supreme Court.
The WaPo list is the same as the earlier NY Times list, except that the WaPo list includes Fifth Circuit Judge Emilio Garza as one of the candidates.
My personal favorite in this group remains John J. Roberts, who has been a clear thinker and superb writer while on the D.C. Court of Appeals.
Posted by Tom at 4:25 AM
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June 14, 2005
The legacy of Lee Brown?
This Dan Feldstein/Chronicle article reports that the brother of former Houston mayor Lee P. Brown was implicated this morning during the opening stages of the federal corruption trial of Cleveland, Ohio businessman Nate Gray:
[O]n the first day of a major bribery trial here of three other men, prosecutors played a wiretapped cell phone conversation in which Cleveland businessman Nate Gray brags that "the mayor's brother and I are like this.""I can go into Houston and have more juice than a local guy," Gray told a young attorney who wanted to learn the ropes of Gray's consulting business.
"Greasing palms" was how to get things done, said Gray, who faces 44 counts of bribery-related charges.
Two other people Gray allegedly gave cash and gifts were Houston city officials ? former Brown chief of staff Oliver Spellman and building services director Monique McGilbra.
Both pleaded guilty to accepting bribes and are expected to testify against Gray. . .
Prosecutors said Brown got monthly payments totaling thousands of dollars and even a payment specifically for promising to talk to his mayoral brother about a pending contract.
Here is a previous post regarding Ms. McGilbra's plea deal, and Kevin Whited over at blogHouston.net (more here) has been covering these developments from the beginning.
Where there is smoke in such matters, there is often fire. Stay tuned on this one.
Posted by Tom at 10:45 AM
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June 13, 2005
NASA shakeup continues
As noted in this earlier post, new NASA chief administrator Michael D. Griffin is shaking things up at the space agency. This Washington Post article reports on Mr. Griffin's latest moves, which include the building of a less political and more scientifically-oriented management team to implement the initiative to return humans to the moon by 2020 and eventually send them to Mars. One particularly interesting part of the article is the following:
"[Mr. Griffin] wanted to be NASA administrator for a long time and has given a lot of thought to what has been done well or badly," one congressional source said. "Because of that, he is not going to take a year or two to get to know the organization."Instead, the sources said, he expressed dismay that NASA over the past several years had put a lot of people in top management positions because of what one source described as "political connections or bureaucratic gamesmanship -- not merit."
Several sources spoke of a corps of younger scientists and engineers, including Griffin, who had been groomed in the 1970s and 1980s as NASA's next generation of leaders only to be shoved aside during the past 15 years. They said Griffin hopes to bring them back.
"The people around him will be quite outstanding," one source said. "The philosophy is that good people attract outstanding people. This is going to be a very high-intensity environment, and NASA needs experienced, outstanding people."
Posted by Tom at 5:39 AM
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June 9, 2005
Fiddling while Rome burns
It's a good sign that it's not going to be a good day at the office for a Republican politician when the morning's edition of the Wall Street Journal has both an editorial and an op-ed piece critical of the politician.
But that's precisely what Texas governor Rick Perry is confronting today. In this WSJ editorial ($) aptly entitled "What's the Matter with Texas?", the Journal editors pick up on a theme that was noted earlier in this post -- that is, the utter lack of leadership being exhibited by Republican politicians:
Republicans control every lever of political power in Austin for the first time since Reconstruction and had promised a sweeping reform agenda. Property tax relief. Vouchers for kids in failed inner-city public schools. An end to Robin Hood school financing. And passage of a fiscally tight budget.This entire legislative agenda was ambushed. The school voucher pilot program for 20,000 mostly minority kids was rejected by the very Democratic legislators representing the families who would have benefited from the opportunity to attend private and parochial schools that actually work. The depressing fact that nearly half of the black and Hispanic children in the state fail to graduate from public high schools wasn't perceived as a sufficient crisis to give choice a chance.
Most of the other failings of this legislature must be laid at the feet of the Republicans.
The Journal goes on to note that the Republicans are playing with serious political fire by failing to address the problem of spiraling property taxes in Texas:
But it's almost inconceivable that the legislature would adjourn until 2007 without chopping property taxes. Skyrocketing appraisals are taxing Texans out of their houses, and infuriated home owners are ready to march on Austin. One Dallas legislator reported that he was accosted by irate voters at his kid's swim meet this week. . .[I]f property taxes aren't cut meaningfully right now, the Republicans might not be coming back to Austin after the next election.
Meanwhile, over at OpinionJournal, J.R. Labbe, senior editorial writer and columnist for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, pens this op-ed that addresses the challenges from within the Texas Republican Party that Mr. Perry is expected to face in the upcoming election campaign, and notes in particular that Mr. Perry's recent political staging of a signing ceremony for parental consent legislation in the gymnasium of a Ft. Worth church could backfire:
But the community of faith, even in the Lone Star State, is not a monolith. Plenty of Texan Christians were put off by what they perceived as Gov. Perry's use of religion as a theatrical prop. Witnessing oneself as a godly governor might be more effectively demonstrated if religion weren't turned into a sideshow.
As I observed to Charles Kuffner during lunch yesterday, I'm not sure what's worse -- the risk that government will embrace the worst characteristics of certain Christian churches, or that those churches will embrace the worst characteristics of government.
Posted by Tom at 5:21 AM
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June 8, 2005
The Enron Airline?
A sure sign that a discussion on a particular subject has deteriorated to an unrecoverable level is a participant's allegation that the other side's position defends Nazism in some respect. With regard to discussions about business, it's quickly becoming evident that such discussions have degenerated into uselessness when one participant accuses the other side's position of defending Enron.
This NY Times article reports on a Congressional hearing yesterday in which Delta Air Lines Chief Executive Gerald Grinstein, Northwest Airlines President and Chief Executive Officer Douglas Steenland, and UAL Chairman, President and CEO Glenn Tilton testified in favor of proposed legislation that would allow airlines to freeze pension plans and extend their current obligations over 25 years. Last month, United Airlines obtained Bankruptcy Court approval to shift its employee-pension plans -- including their nearly $10 billion shortfall -- on to the federal government's Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp.
In response to the airline executives' rather reasonable comments in support of common-sense legislation, Senator Charles Grassley (Rep. Iowa) called United Airlines a "catastrophe" and compared United Airlines to Enron Corp., saying the carrier used "illusory investment gains" to "hide and disguise" the true financial condition of its pension plans. "Unlike Enron, however," concluded Sen. Grassley. "Everything United did was perfectly legal."
Well, playing the Enron card may make for a good sound bite, but it's a sure sign that Mr. Grassley wants to avoid addressing what's really troubling the airline industry -- i.e., Big Labor supported by compliant politicians. Let's take United as a case in point. At a time when unions owned over 50% of the company, controlled three board seats, and effectively hired and fired the company's CEO, the unions decided to increase their retirement compensation by approving unfundable pension obligations while, at the same time, extracting maximum current wage benefits that made United uncompetitive from an operations standpoint. Thus, United's owner-employees effectively looted the company with high current compensation benefits while, at the same time, effectively insuring that they would also ultimately loot the federal government's Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, which they knew would be the guarantor of at least a substantial portion of United's unfundable pension obligations.
Frankly, even the Enron sharpies didn't think of such a scheme.
Posted by Tom at 5:18 AM
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June 7, 2005
George Will on the Wright Amendment
Washington Post columnist George F. Will adds this column to the growing body of opinion that the Wright Amendment -- which restricts Southwest Airlines from flying to most states from its Dallas Love Field hub -- is at least obsolescent and probably bad public policy in the first place. Here are previous posts on the Wright Amendment.
In his column, Mr. Will passes along a humorous anecdote from Herb Kelleher, Southwest's chairman, regarding the Wright Amendment and the beginning of the airline:
In 1971, after years of harassing litigation by two airlines averse to competition, Southwest Airlines was born. It had just three aircraft and flew only intrastate, between Dallas, Houston and San Antonio. This first of the no-frills, low-cost airlines, under the leadership of its ebullient founder Herb Kelleher, was to democratize air travel and revolutionize the airline industry.The cities of Dallas and Fort Worth, and the Dallas/Fort Worth airport, which opened in 1974, tried unsuccessfully to force Southwest to move its operations from close-in Love Field out to DFW, arguing that the new airport depended on this. Today Kelleher laughingly recalls telling a judge:
"If a three-aircraft airline can bankrupt an 18,000-acre, nine-miles-long airport, then that airport probably should not have been built in the first place."
Posted by Tom at 8:50 AM
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June 6, 2005
A picture of Metro, 30 years from now?
This post from last year addressed the economic failure of the urban rail system in Washington, D.C. Now, the Washington Post is running a series of articles (first one here) that is examining the dubious economics and management of D.C.'s subway system. Here are other posts on various urban rail boondoggles.
Tory Gattis over at Houston Strategies picks up on the same WaPo article and observes the following regarding the failed economics of most urban rail systems:
Quite the depressing and scary litany. It's really hard to have good management at a public agency, and transit is a seriously complicated and expensive business with billions of dollars at stake, especially rail transit. Amtrak's a mess. DC's a mess. NY, Chicago, SF/San Jose, and LA all have serious problems with their transit agencies. What makes us think Houston Metro can buck this trend?
Posted by Tom at 7:15 AM
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June 4, 2005
More thoughts on Deep Throat
As noted in this previous post, Mark Felt admitted earlier this week that he was the mysterious "Deep Throat" source for Washington Post reporters Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein during the Watergate scandal that brought down the Nixon Administration. Although generally hailed as a hero in the mainstream media, some alternative views are starting to circulate.
Former Nixon White House special counsel Charles W. Colson is one of the most interesting participants in the Watergate scandal. After serving a stint in jail during the scandal for leaking confidential FBI files, Mr. Colson abandoned politics and founded Prison Fellowship Ministries, which is an outreach program to convicts, victims of crime, and justice officers. In this interview, Mr. Colson expresses skepticism regarding the propriety of Mr. Felt's leaking of information:
Many others have voiced disagreement with you about this, saying Felt brought down a corrupt White House and should be applauded. Doesn't that argument have some merit?That's the curse of relativism. That's the era we live in that is so dangerous. That is saying, "I could sit there and make a judgment about what is right even when the law says something else." This is not a case of civil disobedience like Martin Luther King in the Birmingham jail, in which he appeals to a higher law saying that the law at the time was unjust and therefore he couldn't obey it. That was a principled position. He was correct. But that's not the case of Mark Felt. Mark Felt had an obligation to report obstruction of justice to the officials and to a grand jury, if necessary?not to leak it to reporters.
You basically believe he should have just gone to the President and then, if necessary, held a press conference?
What he could have done is gone first to the director of the FBI and say, "There's criminal activity going on in the White House, and these guys are obstructing justice." If the director of the FBI wouldn't go with him to the President, then if Mark Felt had called me, I could tell you, guarantee you, I would have gotten him in to see the President because, I would have been afraid that if [we] didn't, the FBI would bring down the President. And the President would have done something immediately, not out of moral compunction but out of self-interest, because you can't have the No. 2 official in the FBI believing there is obstruction of justice in the White House.
What would have happened differently if he'd taken the route that you suggest?I think it would have precipitated an immediate crisis. If the No. 2 guy in the FBI says, "There's wrongdoing out in the White House and they won't listen to me, I'm resigning," the President would clean house in a hurry, or the impeachment would have taken place within two weeks, instead of nine more months.
Meanwhile, former Nixon speechwriter Pat Buchanan, never one to shy away from defending a difficult position in a debate, lays the wood to Mr. Felt in this Chicago Tribune op-ed:
And so the great mystery, "Who was Deep Throat?" reaches its anticlimax. He turns out to be a toady who oversaw black-bag jobs for J. Edgar, violated his oath and, out of malice and spite, leaked the fruits of an honest FBI investigation to the nest of Nixon-haters at the Washington Post, then lied about it for 30 years.Why did Felt lie? Because he knew he had disgraced himself and dishonored everything an FBI agent should stand for.
He didn't want his old comrades to know what a snake he had been. Linda Tripp, savaged by the same press lionizing Felt, at least had the moral courage to go public and take the heat when she blew the whistle on Bill Clinton.
And Mr. Buchanan remains equally unimpressed with the mainstream media's self-congratulatory treatment of the entire affair:
When you look back at it, what was Watergate all about? A black-bag job at Larry O'Brien's place like the ones "hero" Felt used to run for Hoover. Liddy and Hunt on an escapade to get Daniel Ellsberg's file from his shrink, which probably would have been too heavy to carry anyway. And, oh yes, 200 pizzas Segretti sent with those 30 African ambassadors in native costume to Ed Muskie's D.C. fundraiser.Not one miscreancy committed by Nixon's men did not have its antecedent in the White Houses of JFK or LBJ. But they got away with it, including the distribution to the press of dirt on Martin Luther King, picked up by secret FBI photo and wiretap.
Wednesday night, sipping on a glass of Chalk Hill, I watched as Ted Koppel, at his most oleaginous and unctuous, fed up one cheese ball after another to Ben Bradlee.
What do you think of Buchanan calling Felt a "traitor?" said Koppel, misquoting me.
"Gimme a break!" croaked Bradlee.
Well, you give us a break, Ben. All this bullhockey about how you and the Great Stenographers saved the republic is getting so thick the tourists will need to rent chain saws to cut through it.
Finally, don't miss this John Tierney op-ed in the NY Times in which he notes that it is not Mr. Felt who ultimately profited from the Watergate scandal:
I hope Mark Felt and his family get the big payoff they want, but they've already hurt their chances by ignoring his famous advice as Deep Throat. They didn't follow the money.They didn't appreciate how seriously we journalists take our ethical standards. We are bound by the sacred vow we make to our sources: if the information you give us turns out to be profitable, we will keep the money.
Mr. Felt's family tried profiting from his revelation, but the news cartel held firm. People and Vanity Fair both rejected the family's overtures and held to their policy of not paying sources for news.
The best their lawyer could manage for disclosing the greatest secret in journalism was a fee from Vanity Fair for writing the article. He got about $10,000, which is less than what the magazine has paid for articles in which movie stars disclose they have a major motion picture about to open in a theater near you.
Without [Mr. Felt's] actions, Richard Nixon might well have stayed in office and the University of Texas library would never have paid $5 million for the papers of Mr. Woodward and Carl Bernstein. Even if they'd brought down the president without him, "All the President's Men" would never have sold so many copies and movie tickets without Mr. Felt's dramatic touches - the coded signals he devised, the secret meetings in the parking garage.Now the reporters are rushing out another book, and Mr. Felt is still not supposed to get any money from it. He deserves a cut, not only for what he did for them but for what they and their editor did to him. He risked his career to expose corruption in the White House, and they ensured that his name will be forever linked in the annals of history with a 1970's porn flick. They owe him.
Posted by Tom at 12:48 PM
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June 1, 2005
Deep Throat revealed
Mark Felt, a retired high-ranking FBI official during the Nixon Administration, confirmed yesterday the Vanity Fair magazine story in its July issue that he was "Deep Throat," the confidential shadowy source for Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein, the Washington Post reporters who helped unravel the Watergate scandal that resulted in the resignation of President Richard Nixon over 30 years ago. Here is the exhaustive Washington Post coverage on the story.
The movie based on Woodward and Bernstein's decent book about the affair -- All the President's Men -- does a reasonably entertaining job of telling the story about the Watergate scandal. However, for a more complete and compelling source of information about the Watergate scandal, read the late J. Anthony Lukas' Nightmare: The Underside of the Nixon Years (Viking 1976).
Posted by Tom at 4:28 AM
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May 31, 2005
Implications of the "Non" revolt
This Telegraph article provides a nice summary of the potential implications to French business interests of the vote over the weekend by French voters to reject the proposed European Union constitution.
The French left's vote heavily influenced the election, with two thirds of the Socialist base voting no, including over 70 per cent no vote levels in hard-Left strongholds such as Calais. French employers are clearly worried about the implications of the vote, which they believe will stymie employment reforms that would allow the French economy to become more competitive with the U.S. and emerging economic powers such as China and India.
By the way, Marginal Revolution's Tyler Cowen notes in this post that it's already not easy to find a plumber in France.
Meanwhile, Forbes Paul Maidment provides this insightful summary of the political implications of the vote, including this observation:
The French campaign united some strange political bedfellows. Witness the Trotskyite far left making common eurosceptic cause with the conservative right, The "no" camp was also boosted by the unpopularity of President Jacques Chirac and the cautious economic reform-minded Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin, both advocates of the draft constitution.But the pre-vote polling reflected a growing mistrust of Europe's institutions, not confined to France, we should note, as well as wider economic and social anxieties. The proposed EU constitution was attacked by its French opponents for being an Anglo-Saxon neoliberal document that threatens the integrity of the French social economy. (In the U.K, of course, the constitution is mainly opposed because it is a Franco-German neo-statist document that threatens the integrity of the British market economy.) So caution is required in interpreting the outcome of Sunday's poll.
And, Jane Galt of Asymmetrical Information sums up the implications of the vote this way:
I'll tell you what is a big deal for the EU, though: the euro. The disparities between euro-zone economies are not shrinking as everyone had hoped; in some places, they're growing. That is making it nearly impossible to craft monetary policy that is both hawkish on inflation, and doesn't throw huge economies (i.e. Italy and Germany) deeper into the slough of economic despond. Italy, meanwhile, is managing to disprove the adage that "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon" by having stagflation, a recession, and an inflation hawk at the monetary helm. If the euro falls apart, it could have major repercussions for the EU, as it would be a full scale retreat from "ever-closer union".
Posted by Tom at 4:18 AM
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May 26, 2005
Brewing rebellion against Metro?
Tory Gattis runs the smart blog, Houston Strategies. In this post, Tory notes Metro's less-than-robust rail ridership figures (see this earlier post) and then describes litigation that Metro could be facing in the near future if Metro's ridership trends continue.
Great. Add litigation attorneys as another interest group favoring misguided rail plans. ;^)
Posted by Tom at 7:59 AM
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May 21, 2005
The Chronicle makes a point about DeLay that it failed to make about Enron
A good, old-fashioned snit between Texas political opponents gave the Houston Chronicle an opportunity this week to make a good point about the rule of law and the integrity of governmental investigations. But in so doing, the Chronicle highlighted its failure to apply precisely the same standard to far more egregious examples of prosecutorial impropriety, a good bit of which is taking place in the Chronicle's own backyard.
As this Washington Times article reports, Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle (first picture left) -- who is investigating House Minority Leader Tom DeLay's campaign finance methods (previous posts here) -- characterized Mr. DeLay as a "bully" in a speech at a Democratic Party fundraiser in Dallas. Among Mr. Earle's comments were the following:
"This case is not just about Tom DeLay. If it isn't this Tom DeLay, it'll be another one -- just like one bully replaces the one before. This is a structural problem involving the combination of money and power. Money brings power and power corrupts."
Well, level-headed liberals and conservatives agreed that Mr. Earle should not have sullied the integrity of the investigation into Mr. DeLay's campaign finances by taking potshots at Mr. DeLay during a partisan gathering. But Mr. DeLay's hometown newspaper -- the Chronicle -- went even further and published this stinging editorial questioning Mr. Earle's judgment:
Earle's attendance and remarks attacking DeLay at a Democratic fund-raiser last week in Dallas damaged the credibility of his investigation with a stunning display of prosecutorial impropriety.
[I]t is inappropriate for a prosecutor to discuss a case under investigation in a political setting, or to single out a potential target of that probe for criticism.The fact that Earle refuses to recognize his blunder and would do it again calls into question whether he has the necessary impartiality and judgment to conduct the investigation . . .
The Chronicle's broadside toward Mr. Earle was made all the more surprising by the fact that the local newspaper has been a frequent critic of Mr. DeLay. So, the Chronicle editorial definitely scores some points for objectivity.
However, before the Chronicle editorialists pat themselves on the back too much for their fairness in defending Mr. DeLay against Mr. Earle's imprudent remarks, they need to answer the following question:
Where has that objective viewpoint been over the past several years as other "stunning displays of prosecutorial impropriety" have been perpetrated on business executives, including many right under the nose of the Chronicle in Houston?
In that connection, it has become commonplace for officials of the federal government to conduct a virtual political rally as they flame already well-stoked local emotions against former executives of that favorite corporate pariah, Enron:
"[T]he president's corporate task force, which celebrates its second anniversary tomorrow . . . [has demonstrated that] just the mention of the name Enron evokes images of duplicity and greed," said Linda C. Thomsen, director of enforcement for the Securities and Exchange Commission;"[T]he corporate culture of Enron guided by Mr. Lay is now synonymous with corporate fraud and greed at its worst. And Enron's crooked 'E' logo depicts the corporate management team at Enron -- crooked," opined Internal Revenue Service Commissioner Mark W. Everson; and
In a December, 2004 interview, the Chronicle reported that Andrew Weissmann (second picture above), director of the Enron Task Force, compared Enron executives to New York mobsters that he previously prosecuted.
Literally dozens of other examples of inflammatory public statements from Enron prosecutors and government officials could be cited.
Meanwhile, as noted in this earlier post, the Lord of Regulation went on the Sunday talk show circuit recently to condemn Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, one of the targets of the Lord's ongoing investigation into American International Group, Inc.:
"These are very serious offenses," stated Mr. Spitzer gravely. "Over a billion dollars of accounting frauds that A.I.G. has already acknowledged. . . That company was a black box, run with an iron fist by a C.E.O. who did not tell the public the truth. That is the problem."
Now, let's take stock here. In each matter described above, prosecutors have made inflammatory public statements about subjects of their highly-publicized criminal investigations. In Mr. Earle's case, the Chronicle condemns his one imprudent remark in the strongest terms. But what has the Chronicle had to say about the multiple comments of the Enron prosecutors and Mr. Spitzer, which frankly are much more numerous and egregious than Mr. Earle's relatively tame comments?
Nothing. Nada. Zilch.
The Chronicle's blindspot is typical of the mainstream media's apathy toward the prosecutorial misconduct that is taking place these days as big government criminalizes big business. The existence of business fraud at companies such as Enron, WorldCom, Tyco and maybe even AIG does not necessarily mean that there is more misconduct in big business than in any other relatively large organization, such as big government or even big news organizations. Nevertheless, prosecutors such as Mr. Spitzer and those on the Enron Task Force are publicizing these instances of business fraud to generalize arbitrarily against those who are easy and popular targets -- i.e., wealthy (and apparently greedy) businessmen. The Chronicle has embraced this public relations tactic while portraying the Enron Task Force as the defender of noble egalitarianism fighting against the forces of corrupt capitalism.
In the wake of such seemingly simple morality plays, many legitimate business transactions -- most notably structured finance transactions that most prosecutors and journalists neither understand nor do the homework necessary to understand -- are unfairly and incorrectly portrayed as complex business frauds. Completely ignored in the process is the fact that such transactions build wealth in companies for the benefit of shareholders, and that such transactions are usually reviewed and approved by multiple professionals who are experts in such transactions. The misguided nature of the government and the Enron bankruptcy examiner's criminalization of Enron's valid structured finance transactions has been well-chronicled by University of Chicago business professor and structured finance expert Christopher Culp in his recent books, Corporate Aftershock (Cato 2003) and Risk Transfer (Wiley 2004).
So, three and a half years now after Enron spiraled into bankruptcy, the Enron Task Force has completed one trial, and obtained one conviction and one acquittal of former Enron executives (the Task Force is currently conducting a trial against five former Enron executives in the Enron Broadband case). Rather than prosecute clearly criminal conduct, the preferred approach of the Task Force has been to sledgehammer former Enron executives with multi-count indictments so that each of the executives is faced with the prospect of what amounts to a life prison sentence if they risk exercising their Constitutional right to defend themselves against the charges. Yale Law School Professor John Langbein has written and spoken extensively about how the government is manipulating this plea bargain system to pressure people to buckle and accept a plea, even if they are innocent.
Admittedly, some of the former Enron executives who copped pleas -- notably Andrew Fastow, Ben Glisan and Michael Kopper -- stole from Enron and thus, certainly engaged in criminal conduct. However, many others who have entered into plea deals did not engage in any clearly criminal conduct. Rather, they entered into those deals simply because they could not risk either the financial drain or the long prison term that they faced if they attempted to defend themselves against the Task Force's sledgehammer.
In the meantime, just to make sure that public perception remains inflamed against big business targets, Mr. Spitzer and the Enron Task Force continue to make inflammatory public statements and disclosures about their targets that strongly imply guilt and wrongdoing. Again, what has the Chronicle had to say about this unsavory use of the government's overwhelming prosecutorial power?
Nothing. Nada. Zilch.
The preservation of our freedom is inextricably tied to upholding the rule of law, and that includes restraining the government when it attempts to erode the rule of law to convict an unpopular defendant. As noted many times on this blog, this principle is precisely what Sir Thomas More was talking about in A Man for All Seasons when he made the following comments to young lawyer Will Roper, who had just confirmed that he would abuse the rule of law in order to achieve the laudable goal of convicting the Devil of a crime:
"Oh? And Roper, when the last law was down, and the Devil turned 'round on you, where would you hide, Roper, the laws all being flat? This country is planted thick with laws, from coast to coast, Man's laws, not God's! And if you cut them down -- and you're just the man to do it, Roper -- do you really think you could stand upright in the winds that would blow then?""Yes, I'd give the Devil the benefit of law, for my own safety's sake!"
The Chronicle is right that even Tom DeLay is entitled to the protection of due process of law in the face of the overwhelming power of a governmental prosecution. But so are former Enron and AIG executives. Not only for their protection, but for ours.
Posted by Tom at 12:00 PM
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May 20, 2005
The black hole that is Metro
The economic lunacy of light rail has been an occasional topic on this blog (here, here, here, and here). However, blogHouston.net has a much more impressive archive of insightful posts over the past year on the foibles of the Houston Metropolitan Transit Authority, which has completely redesigned Houston's public transit system over the past decade from a flexible one based primarily on bus transit to an inflexible one based primarily on light rail.
Well, as this Anne Linehan post from today points out, that inflexible light rail system is turning out to be a rather expensive one, too. This Chronicle story reports the shocking news:
Metro wants to spend an additional $104 million on its Main Street light rail line to almost double the number of trains and fix costly problems it blames on construction errors.Metropolitan Transit Authority president and CEO Frank Wilson laid out his wish list to the agency's board Thursday, shortly after releasing statistics that show surging rail ridership but decreased numbers of bus riders and overall customers.
The cost Metro estimates for the improvements would raise the bill for what Metro calls its Red Line ? the 7.5-mile route from downtown to Reliant Park ? by about a third.
At the same time, the agency is seeking federal money to help build four light rail extensions with a combined price tag of $1.7 billion.
The Chronicle goes on to report that, although light rail ridership has increased, the total number of people using Metro mass transit (i.e., light rail and buses) has declined by 3% over the past year.
Not exactly the return on investment that one would wish for after plunking down $325 million to build the 7.5 mile light rail system.
At any rate, Ms. Linehan uses her skill in translating Metro-speak to explain why Metro officials believe that spending another cool $104 mil on the existing light rail line is a good idea:
"We cut corners building the 7.5 miles of downtown light rail; we have dismantled bus and trolley service in order to feed the light rail; we don't have a consistent method for collecting fares so we can't talk about 'paid ridership;' we are bleeding passengers systemwide even though Houston's population has increased; and now we'd like an extra $100 million to help fix our mess."
Thus, the scam of this publicly-financed rail system continues to eat money voraciously with no end in sight. The economic benefit of light rail is actually highly concentrated in only a few interest groups, such as elected officials who enjoy touting their political "accomplishment," environmental groups who seek to gain political influence, construction-related firms who can soak the public till, and real estate developers who enjoy the increase in the value of their property along the rail line. Inasmuch as none of these reasons for mass transit are particularly appealing to the vast majority of the electorate, the interest groups disguise their goals behind disingenuous claims that rail lines will reduce traffic congestion, curb air pollution, or -- the one I like best -- make a city "world class." In reality, rail transit has never been an efficient means to reduce either congestion or air pollution, and a rail line has certainly never made a city "world class."
On the other hand, the costs of such systems are widely dispersed among the local population. Thus, the many who stand to lose will lose only a little while the few who stand to gain will gain a lot. As a result, it is usually not worth the relatively small cost per taxpayer for most citizens to spend any substantial amount of time or money lobbying against even an uneconomic rail system. With political leadership more interested in shiny toys than pro forma operating statements, the publicly-financed rail systems continue to infect metro areas like a bad virus, and the cost of treating this civic virus grows larger each month.
Finally, the foregoing analysis does not even count the cost associated with this carnage.
Where is the Lord of Regulation when you really need him? ;^)
Posted by Tom at 3:33 PM
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McGilbra scandal implicates Houston businessmen
This Dan Feldstein/Houston Chronicle article reports on the cozy relationship between two prominent Houston businessmen and Monique McGilbra, former head of Houston's Building Services Department, who pleaded guilty earlier this month to federal bribery charges. Local political weblog blogHouston.net has been discussing this corruption story about officials from former Mayor Lee Brown's administration for some time, and it appears that Mr. Feldstein is bearing down on a story that could shake up Houston City Hall.
The Chronicle article reports that prosecutors claim in court documents that Keystone Group, through its principals Alan Schatte and Michael Surface, paid Garland Hardeman -- who was McGilbra's boyfriend at the time -- $3,000 a month as a "consultant" when Keystone was seeking deals from the City of Houston through McGilbra.
Mr. Schatte is a well-connected local businessman with Democratic Party ties who has specialized in making deals with the City of Houston and made a small fortune from dealings with local governments that occasionally court controversy. He was one of the founders of BSL Golf, which renovated and now manages the municipal Hermann Park Golf Course for the City of Houston. Mr. Surface is chairman of the Harris County Sports & Convention Corp. that runs Reliant Park for the county. He and Mr. Schatte were the original owners in Keystone Group, which specializes in government-leased real estate projects.
The Chronicle reports that, through a spokesman, Mr. Schatte disclosed that federal authorities have not advised him that he is a target of a criminal investigation and that he denies any wrongdoing with regard to the McGilbra affair. The Chronicle could not reach Mr. Surface for comment.
Posted by Tom at 5:02 AM
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May 19, 2005
The Owen nomination goes to the Senate floor
Texas Supreme Court justice and former Houston lawyer Priscilla Owen's nomination to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans will finally reach debate on the Senate floor today. This Washington Post article provides a good summary of how the Republicans intend to use the expected Democratic filibuster over Justice Owen's nomination to force a vote on the nomination with a simple majority instead of the three-fifths majority that is currently required under Senate rules.
Politics aside, it's unfortunate that Justice Owen's nomination has become a political football in the Congressional battle over the President's proposed judicial selections. In reality, she is precisely the type of talent that our nation needs in the federal appellate courts. She was a law-review editor at Baylor Law School and the top graduate from that school at the ripe old age of 23. After posting the top score on the Texas bar exam, she entered private practice with Andrews & Kurth in Houston where she became a partner and developed an excellent reputation as a litigator in oil and gas law over a 17 year period. Since entering the judiciary, Justice Owen has served on the Texas Supreme Court for the past 10 years, where -- during her last election to that court -- she was supported by a larger percentage of Texans than any of her colleagues and enjoyed the endorsement of every major Texas newspaper. She has received the highest rating possible ? a unanimous "well qualified" ? from the American Bar Association, which is certainly no bastion of Republican Party politics. Thus, under normal circumstances, the Senate would confirm Justice Owen's nomination in a heartbeat and without reservation.
Alas, these are not normal times. Jack Balkin makes the political case against Justice Owen's nomination, but -- as has been far too often the case in recent years -- the Democrats are not picking their spots wisely. While the Democrats' argument has merit when applied to judicial nominees of dubious quality, it falls flat when used to oppose candidates of the quality of Priscilla Owens.
Posted by Tom at 6:44 AM
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May 16, 2005
Senate report implicates Bayoil with helping Kremlin in Oil for Food Scandal
This Washington Post article reports that a Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations investigation into the U.N.'s oil-for-food program has concluded that Houston-based oil trading company, Bayoil, "paid millions of dollars in illegal, under-the-table surcharges" to the Iraqi regime of Saddam Hussein regime under the program and that Hussein used the illicit proceeds from the oil sales to buy weapons, among other things. The Senate Subcommittee report was made public last night in advance of a hearing today on the matter. Here are earlier posts on the oil-for-food scandal.
The report concludes that the Bayoil payments were part of a scheme under which Iraq sought to influence and reward the Russian government for supporting the Hussein regime in U.N. Security Council deliberations regarding sanctions against the Iraqi government. The Senate report contends that Bayoil played a key role in numerous transactions with the Iraqi government, and that Bayoil arranged transactions between Iraq and former prominent Russian politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky under which a Russian entity would purchase the oil and, without ever taking possession, sell it to Bayoil. Apparently, the Senate report includes a copy of a letter from Bayoil described how the company paid an "agreed premium" to Mr. Zhirinovsky for his cut of the transaction.
Posted by Tom at 5:32 AM
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May 9, 2005
The Lord of Regulation's latest abuse of power
Jay Bryant writes this Tech Station Central piece in which he criticizes New York Aspiring Governor Eliot Spitzer's latest abuse of power -- i.e., his investigation of some of the nation's biggest banks to determine whether they had discriminated against minority groups in setting mortgage rates and fees in the sub-prime mortgage market.
The sub-prime lending industry provides the valuable service of lending money for home loans at higher interest rates to those who cannot qualify for a conventional mortgage because of insufficient income, lack of assets or credit problems. Of Mr. Spitzer's latest foray into political image-making, Mr. Bryant warns:
[I]f Spitzer's ominous letters are any indication, he is about to insert himself and his publicity-seeking machine into the sub-prime lending industry, and if he's not careful, he could destroy it. [His investigation will likely] damage the industry, reduce the number of people it can profitably serve and scale back the growth rate in home-ownership.As former Senator Sam Hayakawa famously observed, you can't expect people to climb the ladder of success if you kick out the bottom rungs. That's the central point about home ownership: that it provides, for people of modest means, the best opportunity they will ever have to build equity. For a great many of them, this equity will mean that before long they will be able to refinance their mortgage at a better rate, their newfound equity having served to improve their creditworthiness. They will, in other words, have moved up the ladder a few rungs. This sort of movement happens all the time.
The threat Spitzer represents is very real, but its victims are not the ones he pretends to threaten. If the bankers who got Spitzer's letters don't make money by sub-prime lending, you may be sure they will find another way to make it. But whether the low-income family trying to climb the ladder to prosperity through home ownership can find another way to make it -- that is a much less likely proposition.
Posted by Tom at 7:16 AM
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New NASA chief is shaking things up
This Washington Post article reports on new NASA Administrator Michael D. Griffin's ambitious plan to shave four years off the timetable for building a next-generation spaceship to replace the obsolescent space shuttle. Dr. Griffin's accelerated plan is to launch the new spaceship by 2010.
As noted in this previous post, Dr. Griffin faces entrenched opposition within the federal government and from government contractors to his efforts to revitalize NASA. This is story worth following closely, for its outcome will have a dramatic impact on the future of U.S. spaceflight, NASA, and the local Houston economy.
Update: Aerospace engineer Rand Simberg comments on Mr. Griffin's initiatives in this TCS piece.
Posted by Tom at 5:18 AM
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May 8, 2005
Pearland's politico pastor and the judiciary
Following on this post from yesterday on misguided efforts to restrict the independence of judicial branch of government, this Washington Post article profiles Rick Scarborough, the Pearland, Texas Baptist minister turned political operative. Mr. Scarborough is a leader in the movement within the Republican Party to persuade Senate Republicans to change the rules so that Democrats cannot use filibuster to block President Bush's federal judicial nominees. In 2002, Jerry Falwell publicly touted Mr. Scarborough as one of the new leaders of the religious right in America.
Meanwhile, George Washington University Law Professor Orin Kerr over at the Volokh Conspiracy takes a good-natured jab at those such as Mr. Scarborough who disingenuously claim that the fight over the judiciary is based on Constitutional principles and not good ol' fashioned American politics. Professor Kerr observes the following about a prominent Supreme Court Justice:
If you think about it, [this Justice] is directly or indirectly responsible for many of the problems with the modern judiciary. Not only did [this Justice] personally fail to intervene in the Schiavo case, ignoring the will of Congress, but he has repeatedly urged judges to simply ignore Congressional intent. He refuses to cite legislative history, woodenly following the "text" rather than deferring to clear statements of what Congressional leaders intended to do. This kind of judicial hubris is simply unacceptable.His activist opinions have invented new constitutional rights for marijuana growers, given thousands of convicted criminals a "get out of jail free" card, and tried to limit the President's ability to fight the war on terror. In addition, [this Justice] has relied heavily on foreign legal sources to interpret allegedly ambiguous provisions of the Bill of Rights (see part II.A). Indeed, [this Justice's] contempt for our system of Government is so great that he admits he wants to see the Constitution "dead."
Who is the Justice taking such outrageous positions? That's right, Mr. Scarborough's favorite, Justice Antonin Scalia.
Also, University of Texas Law Professor Brian Leiter points to this statement approved by the deans of the United States' top law schools (including Dean William Powers of the UT Law School and Dean Nancy Rapoport of the University of Houston Law Center), which provides the following common sense advice:
Recent threats of retaliation against federal judges by members of Congress and others harm the rule of law and the important constitutional principle of separation of powers. We strongly oppose these threats of retaliation. Regardless of whether we agree or disagree with their opininons, we express our full support for judges who properly discharge their constitutional responsibilities by deciding the cases before them as they believe the law requires.We recognize that Americans wil often disagree, as do we, with particular judicial opinions. But the legislative and executive branches have constitutional means available to them to seek to alter the law as declared by the judiciary. An effort to use those means is part of our tradition of separation of powers and is entirely proper. But it is irresponsible and harmful to our constitutional system and to the value of a judiciary that is independent, in fact and appearance, when prominent individuals and members of Congress state or imply that judges may be impeached or otherwise punished because of their rulings. We urge them to stop.
Posted by Tom at 1:37 PM
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May 7, 2005
The Grand Old Spending Party
Check out the following executive summary of this Cato Institute paper entitled The Grand Old Spending Party: How Republicans Became Big Spenders:
President Bush has presided over the largest overall increase in inflation-adjusted federal spending since Lyndon B. Johnson. Even after excluding spending on defense and homeland security, Bush is still the biggest-spending president in 30 years. His 2006 budget doesn?t cut enough spending to change his place in history, either.Total government spending grew by 33 percent during Bush?s first term. The federal budget as a share of the economy grew from 18.5 percent of GDP on Clinton?s last day in office to 20.3 percent by the end of Bush?s first term.
The Republican Congress has enthusiastically assisted the budget bloat. Inflation-adjusted spending on the combined budgets of the 101 largest programs they vowed to eliminate in 1995 has grown by 27 percent.
The GOP was once effective at controlling non-defense spending. The final non-defense budgets under Clinton were a combined $57 billion smaller than what he proposed from 1996 to 2001. Under Bush, Congress passed budgets that spent a total of $91 billion more than the president requested for domestic programs. Bush signed every one of those bills during his first term. Even if Congress passes Bush?s new budget exactly as proposed, not a single cabinet-level agency will be smaller than when Bush assumed office.
Republicans could reform the budget rules that stack the deck in favor of more spending. Unfortunately, senior House Republicans are fighting the changes. The GOP establishment in Washington today has become a defender of big government.
This Slate op-ed provides historical perspective to the findings of the Cato Institute study. Hat tip to Tyler Cowen over at Marginal Revolution for the links.
Posted by Tom at 10:41 AM
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Ron Chernow on the independent judiciary
Ron Chernow -- the author of The House of Morgan (1990), The Warburgs (1994), Titan: The Life of John D. Rockefeller, Sr. (1998), and last year's marvelous Alexander Hamilton (2004) -- writes this interesting NY Times op-ed in which he provides insightful historical perspective on the current political battle that is brewing over the misguided proposals of certain Republican Party politicians to cut off federal financing for the judiciary and even abolish some lower-level federal courts.
After explaining how President Thomas Jefferson and the Republicans attempted to undermine the independence of the American judiciary during the early 1800's after former President John Adams and the Federalist Party had stacked the federal judiciary immediately before Adams had left office, Mr. Chernow observes wisely:
So, before they starve the lower courts of funds, Republicans in Congress and the conservative evangelicals who support them would be wise to ponder these events of the early 1800's. For all the talk today of tyrannical judges, the judiciary still relies on Congress for its financing and on the executive branch to enforce its decisions. It could easily, once again, end up at the mercy of the other two branches, upsetting the delicate balance the framers intended.
Or, stated another way, if a leader of the stature of Thomas Jefferson almost compromised the independence of the judiciary, just think what damage Tom DeLay could do.
Posted by Tom at 7:12 AM
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April 11, 2005
Paul Johnson on JP2
British historian Paul Johnson (author of "Modern Times," "History of the Jews," "History of Christianity," "A History of the American People," and his more recent "Art, A New History," among others) is one of my favorites. In Modern Times, one of his dominant themes is the development in the 20th century of huge governments and their exponential capacity to do evil, particularly to human life.
In this insightful Opinion Journal op-ed on Pope John Paul II, Mr. Johnson notes that the world has lost one of its staunchest supporters of the sanctity of human life:

This great pontiff was essentially a defender, promoter, protector and enhancer of life: life in all its forms, as God created them, but especially human life.He sought to limit, almost to vanishing point, the occasions on which the state, let alone individuals, might legitimately extinguish or frustrate life. He had spent his manhood largely under the tyranny of the two vilest anti-life systems the world had ever seen: Nazism and Communism, together responsible for the unnatural deaths of over 120 million people in Europe and Asia. He had seen at close quarters the appalling consequences which inexorably follow when authority is directed by philosophy contemptuous of life.
John Paul was, perhaps, most vehement in his condemnation of abortion, especially when practiced under the sanction of law and on a huge scientific scale, in the clinics specially created to smother the spark of life before birth, which he compared to the death camps erected by Nazi and Soviet mass murderers. It was a sharp sword in his heart which filled him with righteous indignation that, after the world had been scourged for more than 50 years by the mass killings of totalitarianism, anti-life politicians, above all in the democracies, should have set up a holocaust of the unborn which has already--as he often asserted with awe and anger--ended the existence of more tiny human creatures than all the efforts of Hitler, Stalin and Mao combined.But it should not be thought that John Paul's defense of life was conducted on principles seen as conservative. He was an absolute and implacable opponent of capital punishment, an issue on which he parted sorrowfully from many of his warmest admirers. He was most reluctant to admit the admissibility of war in almost any circumstances. He was wary of giving any kind of approval to President Bush's active war on terror, and plainly opposed the invasion of Iraq. It was his view that a righteous ruler, however tempted by the urge to end wicked regimes, should not set in motion events which would soon move out of control and perhaps cause evils far worse than those it was designed to end.
Not that the pope condoned terrorism in any form. He was never among those clergy in the West who mitigated their disapproval by pointing to legitimate grievances.
Indeed it would be hard to imagine a greater contrast between Pope John Paul, who spent his entire existence searching perpetually to prolong and preserve life, and that evil caricature of a spiritual leader Osama bin Laden, who from the moment he awakes, throughout the day, until he falls into a troubled sleep, directs his agents to end as many lives as possible, including their own (but never his). In their cataclysmic duality, these two men came as close as ever human beings do to embodying the principles of Good and Evil.
Posted by Tom at 6:12 AM
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April 7, 2005
It's The Masters and Martha time
The Master's Golf Tournament cranks up today and, almost on cue, Martha Burk is railing against the capitalist roaders wasting money on such nonsense. Writing in today's Wall Street Journal ($), Ms. Burk asserts that corporate sponsorship of a rich man's club that does not allow women members is only part of the good ol' boys network that prevents an equal number of women from becoming members of corporate boards:

Augusta National Golf Club, which openly and proudly discriminates against women, will produce its Masters Golf Tournament with considerable help from the masters of corporate America. After two years without sponsors, the tournament will again be underwritten -- by stockholders and customers of IBM, SBC and ExxonMobil. The companies will spend between $7 million and $12 million for the privilege of sharing four commercial minutes per hour on the air. Even so, CBS will lose money on the broadcast, giving its stockholders -- male and female alike -- the opportunity to pick up the slack.With the return of corporate sponsorships, there will no doubt be a return of corporate entertainment. Citigroup, Coca-Cola, Bank of America, and others will spend up to a million dollars apiece on lavish meals, liquor, housing, transportation, and gifts to customers. And that doesn't count hidden overhead expenses such as use of the company plane, staff time, and cash-only "all-night entertainment services."
It's hard to imagine this kind of corporate involvement with a club that flaunted its race discrimination. In a parallel situation in 1990, when the subject was exclusion of blacks at the Alabama club hosting the PGA Championship, IBM pulled its sponsorship with the statement: "Supporting even indirectly activities which are exclusionary is against IBM's practices and policies." Yet because the subject is now gender discrimination, IBM repudiates these selfsame policies, and other corporate lemmings follow suit. If it's good enough for Big Blue, why not?
The harm to stockholders pales beside the harm to working women. If the largest companies can send the message that sex discrimination is acceptable, it has a legitimizing effect that goes far beyond Augusta. It trickles down to frontline management, it permeates the culture, and it stifles women's progress. If women were fully represented on corporate boards, it is doubtful they would approve company entertainment at places that keep females out, or nominate new board members who condone sex discrimination by belonging to such clubs. But females constitute only 10% of boards in the Fortune 500.
Why?
Well, maybe because of the good ol' boy network, which happens to be the focus of Ms. Burk's new book, Cult of Power, published this week by Scribner. But I'm sure that Ms. Burk would not use the purity of her criticism regarding corporate support for Augusta National Golf Club to promote her new book.
Apparently, Ms. Burk has a policy of advocating rather odd views. Apart from the dubious notion that a corporation's support for a popular golf tournament means that it is supporting a golf club's policy of discriminating against women, Ms. Burk's argument fails to acknowledge that wealthy businessmen -- as well as strident women -- have the right in America to associate in a private organization with whomever they want. Those of us not in the organization may not like it, but about the time that we start advocating that the government do something about the club excluding people like us, we better start worrying about what else that a government so empowered can do. And believe me, a government so empowered can generate much greater injustice to women than anything Augusta National can do.
By the way, The Master's website has a pop-up screen that allows you to watch players on the practice tee hitting balls while warming up and on a couple of holes on the course. Check it out. That is, if you can tolerate using the website of a club comprised of a bunch of rich, white guys.
Posted by Tom at 5:05 AM
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April 4, 2005
City of Houston Housing Department slammed in audit
Coming on the heels of this earlier story regarding HUD's decision to freeze over $48 million of federal funds allocated to the City of Houston until the City corrects serious problems in the City's Housing and Community Development Department, this Chronicle article reports on a Jefferson Wells audit report that essentially concludes that the Authority has been run as the personal fiefdom of some of its directors for over a decade.
The report identifies serious deficiencies in every area of the department, including a dysfunctional management culture and ineffective systems for verifying such basic things as whether contractors were doing their jobs and ensuring repayment of loans. Probably only the department's system for setting up directors' travel arrangements worked without a hitch.
The findings in the report are no surprise to anyone who has attempted to deal with the City of Houston Housing Department in an honest and businesslike manner. Tip to Mayor White: Clean house.
Posted by Tom at 5:21 AM
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March 24, 2005
The Schiavo case
A number of friends have asked me why I have not blogged on the Terri Schiavo case, to which I have stolen Eugene Volokh's reply that "I know nothing about the Schiavo matter, and -- despite that -- have no opinion."
As we have seen with the Enron case, when a case becomes as sensationalized in the MSM as the Schiavo case has over the past several weeks, battle lines get drawn politically, increasingly shrill views compete for the public's limited attention, and wise perspectives tend to get lost in the shuffle. Bloggers can find thoughtful views -- such as those of Professors Bainbridge and Ribstein -- but, let's face it, the vast majority of the public do not read blogs.
At any rate, I wanted to pass along a couple of informative articles on the Schiavo case that will appear in next month's New England Journal of Medicine. Timothy Quill, M.D. is a nationally-recognized expert in palliative care and end-of-life issues who is a professor of medicine, psychiatry, and medical humanities at the University of Rochester, School of Medicine and Dentistry. In this article, Dr. Quill dispassionately reviews what has occurred in the Schiavo case, and then makes the following observation:
In considering this profound decision, the central issue is not what family members would want for themselves or what they want for their incapacitated loved one, but rather what the patient would want for himself or herself. The New Jersey Supreme Court that decided the case of Karen Ann Quinlan got the question of substituted judgment right:If the patient could wake up for 15 minutes and understand his or her condition fully, and then had to return to it, what would he or she tell you to do?If the data about the patient?s wishes are not clear, then in the absence of public policy or family consensus, we should err on the side of continued treatment even in cases of a persistent vegetative state in which there is no hope of recovery. But if the evidence is clear, as the courts have found in the case of Terri Schiavo, then enforcing life-prolonging treatment against what is agreed to be the patient?s will is both unethical and illegal.
In the same issue, George P. Annas, J.D., the Edward R. Utley Professor and Chair Department of Health Law, Bioethics & Human Rights at Boston University School of Public Health, pens this article in which he reviews the legal precedent relating to the Schiavo case and criticizes Congress for ignoring it. In so doing, Professor Annas observes the following:
There is (and should be) no special law regarding the refusal of treatment that is tailored to specific diseases or prognoses, and the persistent vegetative state is no exception. "Erring on the side of life" in this context often results in violating a person?s body and human dignity in a way few would want for themselves. In such situations, erring on the side of liberty ? specifically, the patient?s right to decide on treatment ? is more consistent with American values and our constitutional traditions.
Hat tip to the HealthLawProf blog for the links to these articles.
Posted by Tom at 8:17 AM
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March 22, 2005
Rocket Boy disses the Space Shuttle program
Homer Hickam, the former NASA engineer and author whose brilliant October Sky was made into one of the best family films of the past decade, urges President Bush to discontinue the obsolescent Space Shuttle program in this devastating Wall Street Journal op-ed ($), in which he observes:
I left NASA in 1998 to pursue a writing career. I'm glad I did, because I could no longer stand to work on the Space Shuttle: 24 years after it first flew, what was once a magnificent example of engineering has become an old and dangerous contraption. It has killed 14 people and will probably kill more if it continues to be launched. It has also wasted a generation of engineers trying to keep it flying on schedule and safe. Frankly, that's just not possible and most NASA engineers in the trenches know it. Einstein reputedly defined insanity as repeating the same behavior and expecting different results. The Shuttle program is a prime example of this.
Mr. Hickam describes a phenomena of big governmental agencies that Robert Coram examined in regard to the Defense Department in Boyd: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War -- i.e., the tendency of power elites in governmental agencies to perpetuate their pet projects at the expense of progress and innovation. Secretary Rumsfeld is confronting much the same inertia in the Defense Department as he attempts to transform America's military, a topic that is addressed in these earlier posts. This is not a story that the MSM covers to any meaningful degree, but it remains one of the most important to America's survival as a superpower.
Posted by Tom at 6:17 AM
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March 16, 2005
New John O'Neill interview
Houston attorney John O'Neill of Swift Boats Veterans fame is the subject of this American Enterprise Institute interview.
Speaking of O'Neill, that reminds me of this incredibly bad idea that cropped up during last year's Presidential campaign. Thankfully, the trial balloon that was referred to in that post blew away and that was the end of the speculation.
Posted by Tom at 9:05 AM
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March 6, 2005
"The D.A. and Tom DeLay"
That's the name of a segment on "60 Minutes" this evening, according to this Washington Post article, which examines the ongoing criminal investigation in Austin over House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's involvement in various campaign finance violations. Here are the previous posts on the investigation of Mr. DeLay.
By the way, when you hear Mr. DeLay's aides deride the investigation as a politically-motivated witch hunt of Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle, just remember this.
Update: Here is the transcript of the 60 Minutes segment.
Posted by Tom at 6:35 AM
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March 3, 2005
Is DeLay vulnerable?
Probably not, but this Washington Post article notes sure signs that the DeLay camp is concerned.
Posted by Tom at 7:26 AM
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March 2, 2005
Victor Davis Hanson interviewed
Posted by Tom at 8:10 AM
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February 28, 2005
An evening chat with U.S. Senate candidate Barbara Radnofsky
Greg's Opinion brings us this post in which he describes an evening chat with Vinson & Elkins partner and Democratic Party candidate for U.S. Senator, Barbara Radnofsky of Houston. Barbara is a formidable candidate who will be interesting to watch as her campaign develops. If she can overcome the name recognition hurdle, my sense is that she could give any Republican candidate for the Senate a real run for their money.
Posted by Tom at 6:31 AM
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February 27, 2005
New ethics complaint involving DeLay?
Gosh, this is getting monotonous.
This Raw Story article reports that the National Journal is prepared to report that prominent lawyer and former lobbyist Jack Abramoff, who federal authorities are investigating for his lobbying efforts on behalf of an Indian tribe and his relationship with House Majority Leader and Houston area congressman Tom DeLay, paid thousands of dollars for DeLay and DeLay?s staff?s stay in an expensive London hotel in mid-2000. Earlier posts on the Abramoff-DeLay investigation can be reviewed here.
House rules stipulate that members or members? employees cannot accept payment from a registered lobbyist to cover travel costs.
Posted by Tom at 7:27 AM
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February 8, 2005
The Trans-Texas Corridor
This Washington Post article examines the political implications of the Trans-Texas Corridor, which is the biggest highway project since the Interstate Highway project of the 1950s. The $184 billion, 50-year plan provides for building 4,000 miles of six high speed toll lanes for cars and trucks, six rail lines, and easements that would provide space for petroleum, natural gas and water pipelines, and electric, broadband and other telecommunications lines.
Posted by Tom at 8:20 AM
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February 5, 2005
Sizing up some Texas politicians
In this post, James Wolcott endorses Kinky Friedman's candidacy for Texas governor because of Kinky's stated reason for running -- he wants "to move into the governor's mansion because he needs more closet space."
Among other observations, Mr. Wolcott describes the looming Republican Primary battle between Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison and current Texas governor Rick Perry:
It has been rumored that Senator Kay Bailey Thurston Howell the Third is planning to step down from the Senate to run for the governor's seat, presently occupied by Rick Perry, whom even other Republicans consider a ceramic idiot. She would be a formidable candidate, unlike the current dolt.
Meanwhile, don't miss Banjo Jones' hilarious analysis of the lengths that Houston U.S. Representative and notorious camera hog Sheila Jackson Lee went to in order to obtain maximum camera time during President Bush's State of the Union speech earlier this week.
Posted by Tom at 10:09 AM
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January 31, 2005
A diplomatic coup?
Texan and U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Tony Garza is engaged to marry María Aramburuzabala, who is reportedly Mexico's richest woman and who is dubbed "the Beer Queen."
Posted by Tom at 5:54 AM
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January 27, 2005
Making Congressional voting transparent
This post by Tom Mighell over at Inter Alia reminded me to pass along GovTrack (www.govtrack.us), a new site that will provide you email notification of up-to-the-minute information about Congress.
GovTrack differentiates itself from other sites devoted to Congress in that it sends users e-mail updates anytime there is activity on legislation that they want to monitor. GovTrack lets users track activity of specific legislators. It can also send updates via RSS, or Real Simple Syndication, which is the most efficient way to organize and review such updates, as well as blog updates. The site collects information from Thomas (thomas.loc.gov), which is the Library of Congress's legislation tracking site, as well as the websites for the House of Representatives and the Senate. Check it out.
Posted by Tom at 8:19 AM
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Clear thinking on Social Security reform
The Bush Administration's initiative to reform the Social Security system has been criticized recently as being premature because the system is not really in crisis and there are more pressing fiscal problems, such as reforming the health care finance system. Well, Social Security is clearly not in as bad a shape as say, Medicare, but to put off reforming Social Security for that reason is akin to reasoning that there is no need to tend to that long overdue tune up of the family's better car because it seems to be driving better than the family's clunker.
In this Wall Street Journal ($) Capital column, David Wessel interviews Edward "Ned" Gramlich, a U.S. Federal Reserve governor who chaired the Social Security advisory commission during the Clinton Administration and is the former dean of the University of Michigan's School of Public Policy. Although not enamored of the Bush Administration's initial proposal for reforming Social Security, Mr. Gramlich nevertheless is a strong proponent for Social Security reform now:
I don't think the system is in crisis. But we can make much more desirable changes if they're made early. The problem with waiting until the car is about to go off the road is that our options are constricted. It's hard to make sensible benefit cuts if people have already retired or are close to retirement. It's easier to do if cuts are well-advertised. In the past, we have waited, the benefit system has expanded and we've raised the payroll tax. At some point, we can't do that.
We can do much more sensible things if we act early. But it's hard to generate the requisite urgency when the system is projected to be paying full benefits for the next 40 years or so. I'm not an advocate of the president's general approach, but I have sympathy for arguments that the president's people are making about the wisdom of acting now.
Posted by Tom at 6:40 AM
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January 22, 2005
The risks of the Texas-Mexico border
This Washington Post article reports on a troubling development that many Texans prefer to ignore -- that is, the increasing number of missing persons who are being abducted in the Mexican border towns along the border of Texas and Mexico.
21 U.S. citizens have been kidnapped or disappeared between August and December of last year. Of those 21, nine were later released, two were killed, and 10 remain missing. Moreover, law enforcement officials report an alarming rate of kidnappings that are occurring across Mexico, including what are dubbed "express" kidnappings that are performed for "quick cash" ransoms.
The Rio Grande Valley of Texas -- or "the Valley" as Texans call it -- has always been a fascinating and troubling part of Texan culture. Larry McMurtry portrayed the late 19th century version of the area brilliantly in his Pulitzer Prize winning novel, Lonesome Dove, which was made into one of the best television mini-series of all time in 1989 with Robert Duvall and Tommie Lee Jones in the main roles. Filmmaker John Sayles provides an equally remarkable portrayal of the area during the 1950's and 1980's in his fine 1996 film, Lone Star, which includes Valley native Kris Kristofferson in the flat out best performance of his acting career. The area is among the lowest in terms of per capita income in the United States, yet even that chronically depressed economy is a fantasy of riches for many of those living in the poverty of the teeming Mexican border towns.
The region's problems are complex and difficult, which makes the area prone to being ignored. The increased violence of late is the natural result of such neglect, and the usual response to such spikes in violence along the border -- i.e., heightened law enforcement -- is only a short term solution that often contributes to the animus that many of the Hispanic citizens of the area have toward the state. The area is desperate for leadership and a vision for solving its problems, yet those intractable problems tend to repel those in government who are in a position to do something about them. In short, the Valley needs statesmen, which are in short supply in the polarized American political landscape of the early 21st century.
Posted by Tom at 7:21 AM
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January 21, 2005
Noonan and Ignatius on the Inauguration
Following Paul Gigot's thoughts in this post from yesterday, Peggy Noonan writes this Opinion Journal op-ed today regarding President Bush's Inaugural speech, in which she observes the following:
There were moments of eloquence: "America will not pretend that jailed dissidents prefer their chains, or that women welcome humiliation and servitude, or that any human being aspires to live at the mercy of bullies." "We do not accept the existence of permanent tyranny because we do not accept the possibility of permanent slavery." And, to the young people of our country, "You have seen that life is fragile, and evil is real, and courage triumphs." They have, since 9/11, seen exactly that.And yet such promising moments were followed by this, the ending of the speech. "Renewed in our strength -- tested, but not weary -- we are ready for the greatest achievements in the history of freedom."
This is -- how else to put it? -- over the top. It is the kind of sentence that makes you wonder if this White House did not, in the preparation period, have a case of what I have called in the past "mission inebriation." A sense that there are few legitimate boundaries to the desires born in the goodness of their good hearts.
One wonders if they shouldn't ease up, calm down, breathe deep, get more securely grounded. The most moving speeches summon us to the cause of what is actually possible. Perfection in the life of man on earth is not.
Along the same lines, David Ignatius of the Washington Post observes in this op-ed:
The late congressman Phil Burton of California used to say that government officials got in trouble when they began to believe that all the show and pomp of Washington was "for real." By that, he meant that officials were led astray when they began to think it was about themselves and their party rather than the nation. That delusion is especially easy in a second term, after four years in the adulatory echo chamber of the capital. Just ask survivors of the Nixon administration.
Posted by Tom at 5:51 AM
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January 20, 2005
Can the Republicans lead?
In this brilliant op-ed today, Wall Street Journal ($) editorial page editor Paul Gigot throws down the gauntlet and challenges the Republican Party to elevate substance over form and show that the party can lead America. In a stinging rebuke of the party's leadership over the past generation, Mr. Gigot lays it on the line for the Republicans:
Whatever one thinks of its policies, the Democratic Party surely made a difference during its 20th-century heyday. Set aside its last, corrupted years in power. When liberalism was ascendant, from the 1930s through the 1970s, Democrats permanently altered the face of government.They ended poverty for the elderly with cross-generational entitlement programs, broke Jim Crow's hold in the South with civil-rights laws, built the alphabet soup of regulatory agencies that bedevil American business every day, turned our courts into quasi-legislative bodies, and planted the seeds of government-run health care that continue to grow today. As the party of government, they built institutions and processes that have consistently expanded its scope.
What, in the decade since they've retaken the House, have Republicans done that is consequential in the same way? If the GOP majorities vanished tomorrow, what couldn't Democrats easily repeal? I've asked the latter question of numerous Republicans in recent days, and the only confident answer I get is "welfare reform." By requiring in 1996 that the poor enter the world of work, Republicans stopped the development of a permanent American underclass. Yet despite that historic success, it is striking that they still haven't had the nerve or clout to pass an extension of even that reform through the Senate. . .
In fact, it is depressing to consider how much of what Republicans wanted to do under a Democratic president in the '90s they have abandoned now that they control both sides of Pennsylvania Avenue. The regulatory reform requiring "cost-benefit" analysis that came within a vote of passing the Senate in 1995 has never returned. The excellent Medicaid reform vetoed by Bill Clinton has also gone nowhere, despite pleas from many governors to revive it. The Freedom to Farm Act was gutted.
Even the congressional budget process that Democrats designed to make spending easier remains entirely unchanged. Fourteen years ago, Congressman Chris Cox was able to win upward of 180 votes for such budget changes; last year he got 88, and he had to buck the rest of the GOP leadership to get even those.
Some of this can be blamed, first, on having a Democrat in the White House, and later having only small majorities on Capitol Hill, especially in the Senate. But not anymore. After November's victory, Republicans don't have any more excuses.
Read the entire piece. Mr. Gigot's point is a variation on the theme that Milton Friedman touched on awhile back:
To summarize: After World War II, opinion was socialist while practice was free market; currently, opinion is free market while practice is heavily socialist. We have largely won the battle of ideas (though no such battle is ever won permanently); we have succeeded in stalling the progress of socialism, but we have not succeeded in reversing its course. We are still far from bringing practice into conformity with opinion.
With a Republican president and solid majorities in both houses of Congress, the Republicans no longer have any excuses for failing to address America's pressing problems in such areas as health care finance, tax policy, and intelligence reform, to name just three.
The Republicans have exploited the Democratic Party's obsolescence in these areas to seize the reins of leadership. Now, it is time for the Republicans to lead or risk, as Mr. Gigot puts it, becoming "as evanescent as the Whigs."
Posted by Tom at 5:20 AM
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January 19, 2005
Only in New York
In a rare moment of candid introspection, the NY Times concedes that only New York could come up with a political race where Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the son of the late senator, would run for state attorney general (to replace Eliot Spitzer, of all people) against his brother-in-law, Andrew Cuomo, who is getting a divorce from Mr. Kennedy's sister, Kerry.
When I mentioned this to my wife, she thought I was talking about an episode in a T.V. sitcom.
Posted by Tom at 7:39 AM
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More Econoblog -- Social Security reform
The Wall Street Journal ($) is continuing its interesting Econoblog series, in which the WSJ hosts two experts in economics debating hot issues of the day. In this most recent segment, bloggers Arnold Kling and Max Zwicky debate the merits of Social Security reform. This is a first rate discussion of the issue, and includes further reading materials on the Social Security system. Don't miss it.
Posted by Tom at 6:41 AM
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The Bush Administration's second term agenda
This Economist article does an excellent good job of summarizing and analyzing the Bush Administration's second term agenda.
Posted by Tom at 5:49 AM
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January 17, 2005
Paul O'Neill on Social Security reform
Former Bush Administration Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill criticized the Bush Administration for a lack of meaningful policy analysis in his book, The Price of Loyalty. Mr. O'Neill is a bright and independent thinker about matters of financing governmental policy, so it's prudent to consider his ideas carefully.
In this NY Sunday Times op-ed, Mr. O'Neill proposes a debt-financed transition of the current Social Security system under which those younger than their mid-thirties would save in broad-based, low-cost index funds, on a trajectory that would return to them a $1 million annuity at retirement. Mr. O'Neill calculates that this would would require about $1 trillion in temporary financing. In short, stop the existing system for new entrants, phase out the existing system as older citizens die, and cover the transition costs with debt to be repaid out of the absence of traditional benefits to the younger entrants in future years. This is a similar plan to the one that Arizona State economics professor and Nobel Prize winner Ed Prescott proposed in this earlier post.
The most interesting observation in the op-ed is Mr. O'Neill's blunt and disdainful analysis of the politics of Social Security reform:
As I write this I can imagine the chorus of pundits saying, "This isn't politically possible." Why not? Because it is too complicated for people to understand? Or because the only way to approach change in our society is through small incremental steps, like the president's tepid notion of a limited, voluntary diversion of Social Security taxes into small private accounts?Baloney, I say. What stands between a truly worthy aspiration for our society and its realization is political leadership with the courage to dream big.
Posted by Tom at 5:58 AM
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January 7, 2005
Attempting to cure the PBGC blues
This earlier post noted the growing concern in the business community that the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation -- the quasi-governmental insurer of private company pensions -- is facing a string of large company bankruptcies and pension defaults that could lead to another multibillion-dollar taxpayer bailout similar to the Savings and Loan bailout of the late 1980's.
Now it appears that the growing private pension problem is being noticed at the highest levels of government. This article from today's NY Times reports that officials in the Bush administration are close to unveiling a rescue plan for the PBGC.
The PBGC is a government-owned insurance company that Congress created in 1974 after a string of corporate bankruptcies left retirees without pensions. The PBGC's mission is to provide a limited guarantee of private defined-pension plans, which are pensions that provide retired workers with a set amount each month based on wages and years worked. If a pension plan terminates without adequate resources to meet its obligations to its retired workers, then the PBGC guarantees up to $45,614 annually for employees who retire at age 65.
To finance its activities, the PBGC collects annual premiums from employers with defined-benefit plans that are required to participate in the program. Last year, the premiums totaled about a billion dollars. The PGBC also receives funds from terminated pension plans that it is forced to take over.
With five U.S. airlines already wallowing in bankruptcy court, the PGBC is under an incredible load of financial pressure. Yesterday, the US Airways Group, Inc. bankruptcy court approved the turnover of three employee pension plans to the PBGC at a cost of a cool $2.3 billion. Likewise, last week, the PBGC took over the UAL Corp. (the parent of United Airlines) pilots' pension plan in UAL's pending chapter 11 case. The takeover is likely to cost the PBGC at least another $1.25 billion. With these kinds of growing liabilities, a taxpayer-funded bailout of the agency is inevitable unless an overhaul of the pension-insurance system is approved quickly.
The Bush administration will probably propose to prop up the pension guaranty fund with increased premiums for all participating companies, including higher fees for businesses that are on the brink of bankruptcy. However, that latter proposal shows how misguided this type of "reform" can be. Charging higher premiums to companies that are already at heightened risk of bankruptcy will actually make it harder for the companies to avoid bankruptcy. Thus, that proposal could well place PGBC fund at higher risk rather than making it more secure.
Moreover, passing any reform through Congress will not be a cakewalk. Business groups and labor unions -- recognizing that a federal bailout is likely under the currently broken system -- are already raising concerns about how far the changes should go. Employee groups and unions contend that imposing higher premiums or stiffer rules could prompt some companies to freeze or eliminate the lucrative but uneconomic current pension plans. Labor unions simply prefer an immediate government bailout, as they see the writing on the wall. Last year, the PGBC had a deficit of $23.3 billion, which was double the prior year's decifit. So, we are clearly dealing with an agency here that is is bleeding badly.
And the projections are not rosy, either. The Center on Federal Financial Institutions (a Washington think tank) estimates that the PBGC will run out of cash and rack up a $78 billion deficit within the next 16 years.
As with Social Security, there will be political voices who contend that the PGBC's current problems are not all that bad and that the reforms are just part of the Bush Administration's pro-business and anti-labor bias. However, you can take this to the bank -- the first loss on a problem such as this is the least expensive one. If we put off dealing with the problem, the cost of the bailout will increase substantially.
Posted by Tom at 6:18 AM
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Hammering the Hammer
Earlier this week, House Republicans reversed course and rejected dubious Ethics rules changes that were proposed late last year that would have allowed members indicted by state grand juries to remain in a leadership post. Earlier posts on the rules changes are here and here.
The rule changes were transparently proposed to benefit Houston congressman and House Majority "Leader" Tom DeLay in the event a Travis County grand jury indicts him in connection with an investigation of campaign financing that has already resulted in the indictment of three of his political political associates.
In today's Washington Post, David Ignatius provides this interesting profile of the Colorado representative -- Joel Hefley -- who decided to take on Mr. DeLay over the change in the ethics rule and, in so doing, pulled out an unlikely victory for Congressional ethics. Read the entire informative piece, which concludes with an astute observation about Mr. Hefley and Congress:
He will pay the price, but he doesn't seem to mind. He knows he did the right thing. May his number increase.
Posted by Tom at 5:26 AM
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January 4, 2005
Posner on planning for unlikely catastrophes
Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals Judge, law professor, economics and law guru, and author Richard Posner has written -- in light of the recent Indian Ocean Tsunami disaster -- a timely new book, Catastrophe: Risk and Response (Oxford, Oct. 1, 2004), in which he argues that governmental planning for even unlikely disasters makes economic sense. Peter Singer reviews Judge Posner's new book here.
Judge Posner summarizes his argument in that regard in this Wall Street Journal ($) op-ed, and makes the following point that should give pause to those who advocate further cuts in NASA's budget:
An even more dramatic example [of lack of planning for unlikely disasters] concerns the asteroid menace, which is analytically similar to the menace of tsunamis. NASA, with an annual budget of more than $10 billion, spends only $4 million a year on mapping dangerously close large asteroids, and at that rate may not complete the task for another decade, even though such mapping is the key to an asteroid defense because it may give us years of warning. Deflecting an asteroid from its orbit when it is still millions of miles from the earth is a feasible undertaking. In both cases, slight risks of terrible disasters are largely ignored essentially for political reasons.In part because tsunamis are one of the risks of an asteroid collision, the Indian Ocean disaster has stimulated new interest in asteroid defense. This is welcome. The fact that a disaster of a particular type has not occurred recently or even within human memory (or even ever) is a bad reason to ignore it. The risk may be slight, but if the consequences, should it materialize, are great enough, the expected cost of disaster may be sufficient to warrant defensive measures.
Posted by Tom at 6:20 AM
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December 29, 2004
More Ed Prescott on Social Security reform
2004 Nobel Prize in Economics recipient Edward C. Prescott wrote this earlier Wall Street Journal ($) piece advocating a restructuring of the current Social Security system to one based on mandatory individual retirement accounts.
In this op-ed from today's WSJ, Professor Prescott again makes the case for converting Social Security to a system based on mandatory savings accounts, and makes his case with powerful reasoning based on simple common sense:
Social Security was developed at a time when the number of workers paying into the system greatly outnumbered those who were receiving funds, and thus the promise made by government was easily kept. But times change while policies atrophy, and Social Security has evolved into a system that places an increasingly onerous burden on the young; the ratio of workers to elderly has shifted from 41-to-1 in the 1930s, to 3-to-1 today.
Professor Prescott points out that it is rational for young workers to protest having to pay a disproportionate amount to subsidize such a system by working less to support such a system. Thus, he argues, let's change the system to address such rational behavior:
Would such changes in tax rates and changes in government promises affect labor supply? Theory says "yes," the statistical evidence agrees, and common sense concurs. These young workers are rational. They make labor/leisure choices on the margin, and these marginal choices add up.
So what to do? How to move from a pay-as-you-go welfare system to a self-funding retirement system that benefits from individual maximizing incentives? Again, the answer begins with the insight that labor supply is responsive to tax rates. We simply cannot keep cranking up Social Security taxes with impunity. What we need to do is turn the present tax-and-transfer system into a bona fide individual retirement system that is in line with individual incentives.In short, the answer is to establish a system of mandatory investment accounts for retirement. Why mandatory accounts? Because without mandatory savings accounts we will not solve the time inconsistency problem of people under-saving and becoming a welfare burden.
And Professor Prescott observes that private retirement investment accounts must be made mandatory precisely because people are rational with their money:
The reason we need to have mandatory retirement accounts is not because people are irrational, but precisely because they are perfectly rational -- they know exactly what they are doing. If, for example, somebody knows that they will be cared for in old age -- even if they don't save a nickel -- then what is their incentive to save that nickel? Wouldn't it be rational to spend that nickel instead?So, indeed, people are acting rationally when they choose not to save. We have rational people making choices based on the rules. The trick is to get the rules right. A mandatory retirement system, properly designed, would establish effective rules.
And then with the wisdom that generated a Nobel Prize, Professor Prescott bores in on the main problem confronting Social Security reform and advises on how to overcome it:
No sooner did talk get serious about fixing Social Security in recent weeks than the political boo-birds went to work scaring people away from new ideas. It's rare to open a newspaper editorial page these days and not find some Cassandra screeching about evil policy-makers and cranky politicians who are trying to destroy Social Security. Why a politician from any party would want to intentionally destroy a retirement program meant to benefit the elderly is beyond me. Such political claptrap makes me glad I'm an economist. Granted, politics is a game with its own rules and incentives, and people will rationally play by those rules for political gain, but such political role-playing certainly complicates matters, at best, and makes for bad policy, at worst.Maybe one way to help avoid ad hominem attacks and political labeling would be to recast the Social Security question from one of reform to one of reconstruction. Let's stop talking about reforming Social Security -- let's rebuild it. In other words, if we could wipe the slate clean, what kind of government retirement program would we build from scratch today? It's one thing to snipe at new proposals, but it takes a plan to beat a plan, and I'm willing to bet that the best minds of both political parties, given such a charge, would not come up with a government retirement program as it currently exists.
Read the entire piece. Ed Prescott is a true clear thinker.
Posted by Tom at 6:30 AM
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December 28, 2004
IRS Code overhaul being placed on backburner
When my Republican friends ask me why I am not a Republican (I am assiduously independent politically), I pass along to them articles such as this.
Posted by Tom at 6:20 AM
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The Las Vegas Monofail
Houston's light rail boondoggle has been the subject of several previous posts here. Given that misery loves company, this Washington Post article provides Houstonians with some comfort that Las Vegas may have managed to generate an even bigger rail boondoggle than Houston's:
When it debuted in mid-July, this city's sleek $650 million monorail was supposed to be the envy of the nation, a high-tech public transit system paid for without taxpayer money that would be so popular it could even turn a profit.But during a busy convention season, bits and pieces of the trains started falling off, potentially endangering anything below, and the system was shut down indefinitely for major repairs. By Thanksgiving, newspaper cartoonists and tourists alike were dubbing it "monofail" and deriding the futuristic cars sitting idle on the costly tracks.
After being closed for 3 1/2 months, at a cost of more than $9 million in fare revenue, the system reopened over Christmas weekend, just in time for Las Vegas's busiest tourist week of the year. It was a Christmas gift from Clark County officials to monorail operators who hope to erase the memory of one of the city's most humiliating and expensive debacles.
However, the Las Vegas monorail has an interesting characteristic that is not shared by most rail systems -- it was not built with government funds and is not designed for commuters:
Unlike any of the nation's other transit systems, the Las Vegas Monorail is not designed to aid local commuters or even to alleviate roadway congestion. The traffic reduced by this train is in the casino corridor, making visitors its chief beneficiary.
The Las Vegas Monorail deal is unique . . . Transit Systems Management is a private entity that reports to the Las Vegas Monorail LLC, a board appointed by the governor. . . it is largely a privately operated venture funded by construction bonds sold to investors using the state's bond rating but with debt insurance so Nevada taxpayers are not liable in a default.
Nevertheless, the ubiquitous governmental subsidy of the system appears to be on the horizon:
[F]ederal and county funds will be used for future legs of the monorail -- including a $450 million, 2.9-mile stretch to the downtown casino center northeast of the Strip, planned to open in 2008 but now pushed back by the closure. The monorail also is slated to be extended to McCarran International Airport to the south by 2012, using taxpayer money.
Thus, as with publicly-financed stadiums, the scam of these publicly-financed rail systems lives on because the benefits of light rail are highly concentrated in a few interest groups such as elected officials, environmental groups, labor organizations, engineering and architectural firms, developers and regional businesses. On the other hand, the costs of such systems are widely dispersed among the general population. Consequently, the many who stand to lose will lose only a little while the few who stand to gain will gain a lot.
This is why a politically savvy minority can con a large group of taxpayers facing relatively small costs into voting for an uneconomic rail system based on perceived benefits such as helping the poor, reducing congestion and pollution, and fostering development. Even though these benefits are exaggerated, it is usually not worth the relatively small cost per taxpayer for most taxpayers to spend any substantial amount of time lobbying against the cost-ineffectiveness of the rail system. With political leadership usually more interested in reading tea leaves than balance sheets and pro forma operating statements, these uneconomic rail systems just continue to perpetuate like a bad virus.
Of course, if other public projects are proposed where the overall costs outweigh benefits, then the small cost to the taxpayer per project could add up to quite a hefty boondoggler?s bill after awhile. Las Vegans should think about that as they consider publicly financing both the extensions of the monorail and a stadium to attract a Major League Baseball team.
Posted by Tom at 5:36 AM
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December 23, 2004
Death in Texas
Sister Helen Prejean is a member of the Sisters of St. Joseph of Medaille in Louisiana. She is America's leading abolitionist with regard to the death penalty and the author of Dead Man Walking, which was made into one of the best movies about the death penalty.
In the most recent issue of the New York Review of Books, this article is adapted from Sister Prejean's new book, The Death of Innocents: An Eyewitness Account of Wrongful Executions that Random House is releasing next month. Sister Prejean sharply criticizes then-Governor George Bush's denials of clemency to a large number of Texas death row defendants in Texas, noting that he distanced "himself from his legal and moral responsibility for executions." The entire article is compelling reading, as the following excerpt reflects:
George W. Bush during his six years as governor of Texas presided over 152 executions, more than any other governor in the recent history of the United States. Bush has said: "I take every death penalty case seriously and review each case carefully.... Each case is major because each case is life or death." In his autobiography, A Charge to Keep (1999), he wrote, "For every death penalty case, [legal counsel] brief[s] me thoroughly, reviews the arguments made by the prosecution and the defense, raises any doubts or problems or questions." Bush called this a "fail-safe" method for ensuring "due process" and certainty of guilt.He might have succeeded in bequeathing to history this image of himself as a scrupulously fair-minded governor if the journalist Alan Berlow had not used the Public Information Act to gain access to fifty-seven confidential death penalty memos that Bush's legal counsel, Alberto R. Gonzales, whom President Bush has recently nominated to be attorney general of the United States, presented to him, usually on the very day of execution.[1] The reports Gonzales presented could not be more cursory. Take, for example, the case of Terry Washington, a mentally retarded man of thirty-three with the communication skills of a seven-year-old. Washington's plea for clemency came before Governor Bush on the morning of May 6, 1997. After a thirty-minute briefing by Gonzales, Bush checked "Deny" ? just as he had denied twenty-nine other pleas for clemency in his first twenty-eight months as governor.
But Washington's plea for clemency raised substantial issues, which called for thoughtful, fair-minded consideration, not the least of which was the fact that Washington's mental handicap had never been presented to the jury that condemned him to death. Gonzales's legal summary, however, omitted any mention of Washington's mental limitations as well as the fact that his trial lawyer had failed to enlist the help of a mental health expert to testify on his client's behalf. When Washington's postconviction lawyers took on his defense, they researched deeply into his childhood and came up with horrifying evidence of abuse. Terry Washington, along with his ten siblings, had been beaten regularly with whips, water hoses, extension cords, wire hangers, and fan belts. This was mitigation of the strongest kind, but Washington's jury never heard it. Nor is there any evidence that Gonzales told Bush about it.
The article concludes with the following observation:
As governor, Bush certainly did not stand apart in his routine refusal to deny clemency to death row petitioners, but what does set him apart is the sheer number of executions over which he has presided. Callous indifference to human suffering may also set Bush apart. He may be the only government official to mock a condemned person's plea for mercy, then lie about it afterward, claiming humane feelings he never felt. On the contrary, it seems that Bush is comfortable with using violent solutions to solve troublesome social and political realities.
Posted by Tom at 8:36 AM
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December 7, 2004
"AG" means "Aspiring Governor"
New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer - for whom New York Governor George Pataki's press secretary once noted that "AG" stood for "Aspiring Governor" - confirmed today what everyone who has not lived the past few years on a deserted island already knew -- that he will run for governor of New York in 2006.
Mr. Spitzer's political agenda is downright frightening for anyone trying to make a living running a business, as his investigations into investment banking, mutual-fund trading, and business insurance have shaken those industries to their core. Indeed, those investigations have arguably made him a more powerful regulatory force than the federal and state agencies that are chartered to regulate those industries.
Consequently, Mr. Spitzer will likely portray himself in the governor's race as the crusading protector of the common investor against the Republican-backed behomeths of Wall Street. However, it's far from clear at this point that Governor Pataki will even seek a fourth term in 2006. Interestingly, early polls show that Mr. Spitzer would beat Governor Pataki in a head-to-head race, but that former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani would beat Mr. Spitzer handily in head-to-head polls. Nevertheless, Mr. Giuliani may well not not run for governor in order to keep his options for higher political office open.
Meanwhile, as far as horse races go, I'm pulling for Dick Grasso to kick Mr. Spitzer's ass in their upcoming lawsuit over Mr. Grasso's compensation and severance from the New York Stock Exchange. In fact, I hope that Mr. Grasso kicks Mr Spitzer's rear decisively.
For a particularly good archive of well-reasoned analysis of Mr. Spitzer's damaging methods of regulation, check out Professor Bainbridge's resources on the topic.
Finally, if you want a taste of how the fawning mainstream media naively views Mr. Spitzer, check out this ludicrous Loren Steffy column from the Houston Chronicle.
Posted by Tom at 6:54 PM
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November 26, 2004
The politics of statutes at UT
This NY Times article reports on the squabble that has arisen over the University of Texas at Austin's decision to honor famed Houston trial lawyer Joe Jamail with his second statute on the UT campus:
Of the more than a dozen statues peppering the University of Texas campus here, one glorifies the first native-born governor, two pay tribute to deceased American presidents, and others honor Confederate leaders.Another statue is poised to join the cast on Friday, honoring a graduate who is a successful trial lawyer.
The subject, Joe Jamail, a Houston alumnus who has donated $21.7 million to the university and its athletic programs, already has one bronze likeness at the law school and his name is on several campus sites. The newest statue of Mr. Jamail, who won billions of dollars for Pennzoil in a landmark suit in the 1980's, is scheduled to be unveiled inside the football stadium before the annual game against archrival Texas A&M.
But not everyone looks forward to another likeness. The statue, . . makes Mr. Jamail the only person with two on the 350-acre campus, university officials say, and that distinction has rankled some faculty members.
"One is enough, with due respect to whoever," said a journalism professor, Gene Burd.
The 78 year old Jamail is most famous (notorious?) for persuading a Houston state court jury in 1985 to award a record $11 billion in damages against Texaco for tortiously interfering with Pennzoil's attempted acquisition of Getty Oil. The subsequent judgment prompted Texaco to file a chapter 11 case, which eventually resulted in a settlement of Pennzoil's claim for $3 billion in 1987. Already a wealthy plaintiff's lawyer, Mr. Jamail took the case on a contingency fee, so his piece of the settlement made him one of the wealthiest attorneys in the world.
Over the past 20 years, Mr. Jamail has become a philanthropist, and UT has been the main beneficiary of his philanthropy. Sites at the university named for Mr. Jamail include the swim center, the football field, the law school pavilion that contains the first statute of him, and the law school's legal research center. The newest statue of Mr. Jamail planned for a corner of the football stadium will be placed near a new statue of the former national champion football coach and UT legend Darrell Royal. By the way, Mr. Jamail paid for the statute of Coach Royal.
To this day, the Pennzoil-Texaco case is most remembered in Houston legal circles for the catastrophic trial decision that Texaco's general counsel made. Texaco's main defense was that it was justified in competing with Pennzoil for Getty Oil and, thus, could not have tortiously interfered with Pennzoil's takeover attempt. However, in support of an alternative defense, Texaco's trial counsel recommended that Texaco put on expert testimony that would contradict Pennzoil's evidence of alleged damages. Texaco's general counsel decided that putting on countervailing damages testimony would be a signal to the jury that Texaco did not confidence in its primary defense, so he directed Texaco's trial counsel not to put on any expert damages testimony.
Consequently, when the jury found in favor of Pennzoil on the liability issue, the only damages evidence in the trial record was Pennzoil's. Thus, the $11 billion jury verdict ensued, and the trial record contained inadequate evidence upon which an appellate court could base a decision to reduce the damages.
As they say in defense circles, "Ouch!"
Posted by Tom at 7:35 AM
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November 25, 2004
Bill Moyers is retiring
Bill Moyers will retire next month from full-time broadcasting at the age of 70. This Rocky Mount Telegram article explores the life and work of Mr. Moyers, who has been one of the most thoughtful journalists regarding public affairs during his long career in journalism. Raised in Marshall, Texas, Mr. Moyers met Lyndon Johnson during his 1954 Senate campaign and then served as deputy director of the Peace Corps under President Kennedy and as President Johnson's chief advocate for the Great Society and the War Against Poverty from 1963-67.
Although I have not always agreed with Mr. Moyers' views, I have always appreciated the thoughtful manner in which he has presented them. During these times of increasingly polarized views, such an advocate of reasoned debate will be missed.
Posted by Tom at 7:47 AM
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November 24, 2004
The political landscape for tax reform
This Washington Post article does a good job of describing the political landscape that confronts the Bush Administration in proposing and enacting tax reform legislation. The sponsors of the 1986 Tax Reform legislation -- Dan Rostenkowski and Robert Packwood -- are not particularly optimistic that the administration's approach to the issue will result in successful reform. Check it out.
Posted by Tom at 6:51 AM
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November 23, 2004
Political hack alert
This earlier post noted that the brewing controversy in Dallas over the Wright Amendment provides a ripe field for politicians to reap financial windfalls so long as they are willing to make bad policy decisions that favor certain private business interests.
It appears that their is an inexhaustible supply of issues in which politicians can parley the sale of their political soul into a nice financial return for their campaign war chests. This Wall Street Journal ($) article reports that telecom companies are lobbying elected officials around the country to rationalize support for legislation that restricts free or inexpensive WiFi service for their constituents:
Dozens of cities and towns across the country are rushing to provide low- or no-cost wireless Internet access to their residents, but the large phone and cable companies, fearful of losing a lucrative market, are fighting back by pushing states to pass legislation that could make it illegal for municipalities to offer the service.
Philadelphia announced during the summer that it would hook up the entire city with Wi-Fi. Its current Wi-Fi service is free, but it hasn't decided whether that would continue with wider deployment; it may charge a small fee. "There are some very specific goals that the city has that are not met by the private sector: affordable, universal access and the digital divide," says Dianah Neff, the city's chief information officer. She says that less than 60% of the city's neighborhoods have broadband access.However, last week, after intensive lobbying by Verizon Communications Inc., the Pennsylvania General Assembly passed a bill with a deeply buried provision that would make it illegal for any "political subdivision" to provide to the public "for any compensation any telecommunications services, including advanced and broadband services within the service territory of a local exchange telecommunications company operating under a network-modernization plan." Verizon is the local exchange telecommunications company for most of Pennsylvania, and it is planning to modernize the region using high-speed fiber-optic cable. The bill has 10 days for the governor to sign it or veto it.
The Pennsylvania bill follows similar legislative efforts earlier this year by telephone companies in Utah, Louisiana and Florida to prevent municipalities from offering telecommunications services, which could include fiber and Wi-Fi.
Rather than encouraging municipalities to provide free or inexpensive broadband internet access for its citizens, telecom companies argue that legislators should be more concerned with protecting the telecom companies from competing with local governments to provide WiFi service. Even such palpably superficial reasoning is resonating with Pennsylvania legislators, who apparently need to replenish their campaign war chests:
The Pennsylvania bill, first introduced in 2003, was passed by the state Senate late Thursday night and then passed for a second time by the state House of Representatives late Friday night by wide margins. Senate supporters agreed with Verizon's view of the legislation. Don Houser, a spokesman for Senator Jake Corman, the Senate sponsor of the bill, said "the thinking was the telephone companies didn't want to have local municipalities using tax dollars to compete with private dollars."
Well, citizens are perfectly capable of replacing their elected officials if they do not want their local municipalities competing with private business in providing WiFi service. Pennsylvania Gov. Edward G. Rendell has until November 30 to act on this legislation and has not yet declared which route he will choose. It's not a close cal that he should reject the legislation, but money talks in politics and the telecome companies are willing to throw it around. Keep an eye on this one.
By the way, have you noticed that elected officials do not seem to mind having government compete with private financiers in connection with providing governmental financing for a new stadium?
Posted by Tom at 5:30 AM
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November 20, 2004
GOP Doublespeak
Professor Bainbridge continues to do a good job of criticizing the Republican Party for its rather shameless lack of leadership in its indulgence of House Minority Leader Tom DeLay that was the subject of this earlier post.
What is most curious about the GOP's witch hunt allegations regarding Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle -- whose office is prosecuting three former DeLay aides -- is that Mr. Earle is a well-regarded prosecutor in the legal community who has traditionally been quite even-handed. In fact, 12 of 15 elected officials who Mr. Earle has prosecuted over the years have been fellow Democrats, including former Attorney General Jim Mattox, former Speaker Gib Lewis, former Treasurer Warren G. Harding and former Lt. Gov. Bob Bullock.
As an aside, a funny anecdote arose after Mr. Earle's unsuccessful prosecution of the late Mr. Bullock, who became a somewhat beloved figure in his declining years and a confidant of GOP Governor George W. Bush. After Mr. Bullock's death, Mr. Earle -- who clearly enjoyed the colorful former Lieutenant Governor -- disclosed that Mr. Bullock had subsequently confided to him that he was "guilty as hell."
Posted by Tom at 11:00 AM
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November 18, 2004
More on playing both sides off against the middle in Washington
This Washington Post article follows up on this earlier post regarding Congressional hearings over Washington lobbyist Jack Abramoff and public relations consultant Michael Scanlon's shenanigans in 2002 involving the Tigua Indian Tribe's casino in El Paso.
Playing both sides off against the middle, Messrs. Abramoff and Scanlon originally worked with conservative religious activist Ralph Reed to help the State of Texas shut down the Indian tribe's casino, and then Messrs. Abramoff and Scanlon's turned around and persuaded the the tribe to pay them $4.2 million to try to get Congress to reopen it. Messrs. Abramoff and Scanlon are now embroiled in Congressional and grand jury investigations over an incredible $82 million in lobbying and public relations fees they collected from six tribes that operate gambling casinos.
By the way, Mr. Scanlon, 34 is a former aide to House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, whose name seems to be bandied about in just about every Congressional scandal in Washington or Austin these days.
Charles Kuffner has been all over this story, so check out his blog for more analysis of the situation.
Posted by Tom at 6:38 AM
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November 17, 2004
The GOP's idea of leadership?
If this is the Republican Party's idea of wise leadership, then we are in for a long four years. Professor Bainbridge provides his usual insightful thoughts.
Posted by Tom at 7:10 AM
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November 16, 2004
An endorsement for Judge Edith Jones
Professor Ribstein provides a nice endorsement for 5th Circuit Judge Edith H. Jones of Houston as the next Associate Justice for the U.S. Supreme Court, and I wholeheartedly concur.
Judge Jones is widely recognized as an outstanding jurist and one of the nation?s leading experts on bankruptcy law. A 1974 graduate of the University of Texas Law School, Judge Jones served as an editor of the Texas Law Review and, upon graduation, she joined the law firm of Andrews, Kurth, Campbell & Jones, L.L.P. (now Andrews & Kurth, L.L.P.), where she was the first woman to make partner in the history of the firm. While at Andrews & Kurth, Judge Jones became involved in the small but emerging Texas Republican Party and, in so doing, created her strong political ties with the Bush Family.
Judge Jones was nominated by President Reagan to become a judge on the Fifth Circuit, and she was confirmed by the U.S. Senate on April 3, 1985. During her almost 20 years on the bench, Judge Jones has written nearly six hundred opinions and she has served as a member of the Advisory Committee on Bankruptcy Rules for the Judicial Conference of the United States and the National Bankruptcy Review Commission. Judge Jones has also authored or coauthored more than 15 publications on the topics of bankruptcy law, mass tort litigation, arbitration, religion and the law, judicial workloads, and the judicial selection process. When Justice William J. Brennan, Jr. resigned from the Supreme Court in 1990, President George H.W. Bush considered Judge Jones for the Supreme Court before he ultimately nominated Justice David H. Souter to replace Justice Brennan.
If Judge Jones is nominated, then there is little question that opposition to her candidacy will coalesce arround her recent concurring opinion in McCorvey v. Hill, No. 03-10711 (5th Cir. Sept. 17, 2004). In that opinion, Judge Jones wrote both a panel opinion turning aside a new challenge to abortion rights by the original "Jane Roe" -- Norma McCorvey -- and a passionate concurring opinion in which she recommends that the Supreme Court reconsider its controversial decision in Roe v. Wade.
Although she was the original plaintiff in Roe, Norma McCorvey has since become an anti-abortion activist. In that role, she began a new challenge to Roe in U.S. District Court in June 2003. McCorvey filed a Rule 60(b) motion, which allows a federal court to relieve a party from an earlier judgment under certain limited circumstances.
In the District Court case, McCorvey's lawyers offered more than 5,000 pages of affidavits and other written evidence in seeking to undermine the foundation of the decision in Roe v. Wade. Included among the materials were 1,000 affidavits from women who had had abortions expressing regret over their choice. The District Court summarily denied the motion on the grounds that it was simply too late to revisit the original judgment.
The appeal of that decision went to the Fifth Circuit and oral argument on the appeal was scheduled for this past February. However, oral argument was cancelled and the Fifth Circuit panel promptly issued its decision, which was written by Judge Jones. The panel decision upheld the District Court's denial of McCorvey's motion, but not on the finding that she was pursuing her case too late. Rather, the panel held that the controversy had become moot -- inasmuch as Texas no longer seeks to criminalize abortion after Roe, the panel reasoned that there is no current controversy giving a court power to decide McCorvey's motion.
However, attached to the panel's rather straightforward opinion is Judge Jones' separate concurring opinion (it is somewhat unusual that the author of the panel's opinion also writes a concurring opinion, but not unheard of). In her concurring opinion, Judge Jones points out that the evidence supporting McCorvey's motion "goes to the heart of the balance Roe struck between the choice of a mother and the life of her unborn child." Judge Jones also notes that the evidence suggests that women may suffer for years after an abortion, that several other Supreme Court assumptions in Roe are probably wrong, and that new medical science suggests how much pain a fetus suffers:
"In sum, if courts were to delve into the facts underlying Roe's balancing scheme with present-day knowledge, they might conclude that the woman's 'choice' is far more risky and less beneficial, and the child's sentience far more advanced, than the Roe Court knew."
Nevertheless, Judge Jones goes on to point out that the Supreme Court's decision in Roe to constitutionalize abortion policy has had the consequence of creating a situation in which the Supreme Court likely will not be able to re-examine the factual assumptions of Roe in the context of a court record because no 'live' controversy can arise over the issues involved. As Judge Jones notes, "the Court's constitutional decisionmaking leaves our nation in a position of willful blindness to evolving knowledge. . ."
Opinions such as this may make Judge Jones politically untenable for the Supreme Court confirmation process. But change does not come easily, and here's hoping that the Bush Administration has the political courage to nominate this independent thinker to our country's highest court.
Posted by Tom at 6:51 AM
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November 15, 2004
The effect of the Swift Boat Vets
One of the stories from the just completed Presidential campaign that historians will debate for many years is the effect that the Swift Boat Veterans had on the just completed Presidential campaign. Here are earlier posts on the Swift Boat Veterans.
This John Fund article on OpinonJournal.com is a useful review of the story of these Vietnam veterans groups that raised doubts during the campaign about John Kerry's fitness to serve as commander in chief. The setting for the story is the Restoration Weekend, an annual gathering of political activists that David Horowitz organizes. Mr. Horowitz is a former left-wing radical who opposed the Vietnam War effort as an editor of Ramparts magazine, but who is now conservative writer and political activist.
The article does a good job of summarizing the Swift Boat Veterans' activities during the campaign, and includes the following insightful observation:
As the evening proceeded and one Vietnam veteran after another shared the story of how veterans felt compelled to attack Mr. Kerry for his 1971 testimony branding fellow veterans as war criminals, former CBS News correspondent Bernard Goldberg leaned back in his chair in amazement."I think some of them are too intense," he told me. "But screwing with these guys by accusing them of atrocities was one of the biggest mistakes John Kerry ever made. Thirty years later he woke a sleeping giant."
Posted by Tom at 10:10 AM
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November 11, 2004
Jimmy Carter's sabotage of the Democratic Party
Jimmy Carter's laudatory remarks today about the dubious leadership qualities of Yasser Arafat reminded me of this pithy book review that the Weekly Standard's Noemie Emery wrote earlier this year regarding Steven F. Hayward's book about Mr. Carter, The Real Jimmy Carter: How Our Worst Ex-President Undermines American Foreign Policy, Coddles Dictators and Created the Party of Clinton and Kerry. The gist of Ms. Emery's review and Mr. Hayward's book is that, as bad as the Carter Presidency was for America generally, it was absolutely devastating to the Democratic Party.
First, Ms. Emery stands in awe of Mr. Carter's incredible ability to take either the wrong position on a political issue or alienate those on his side even when he was on the right side of an issue:
Carter is surely one of the worst failures in the history of the American presidency, but he is a failure of a special sort: He did not overreach, as did Lyndon Johnson, or seek to deceive, as did Richard Nixon. Rather, like Herbert Hoover, he seems a well-meaning sort overcome by reality. But while Hoover was blindsided by the depression, Carter failed on a broad range of matters and faced few crises he didn't first bring on himself. Most presidents, even the good ones (sometimes especially even the good ones) leave behind a mixed record of big wins and big errors, but with Carter, the darkness seems everywhere: He is all Bay of Pigs and no Missile Crisis, all Iran-contra and no "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall."
PBS, whose American Experience series on the presidents has done some fascinating things with such novelistic lives as those of Reagan, Kennedy, Nixon, Johnson, and both the Roosevelts, seemed (in a two-part series first aired two years ago and now reappearing) at a loss for how to handle this long dirge-like story, and, to its credit, the program did not flinch from portraying his actual presidency as the total disaster it was.
Ms. Emery notes that Mr. Carter's domestic policies were an utter mess:
As a domestic manager, his crowning achievement was to take the old liberal creed of big government and hitch it to the new liberal creed of "limits to growth" and create incoherence. "We have learned that 'more' is not necessarily 'better,' and that even our great nation has its recognized limits," he scolded, taking on two hundred years of the American temperament. Thus he tried to damp down the consumption machine that drives the economy, while balking at the tax cuts that might have spurred on investment. The result was stagflation, a condition economists had once thought impossible, of soaring inflation and no growth in jobs. Interest rates soared, and Carter's approval ratings sank into the thirties. For this he blamed the American people, for being too immature to realize the good times were over for good.
And even though Mr. Carter's domestic policies were bad, his foreign policy was even worse:
In an address at Notre Dame on May 22, 1977, [Carter] denounced the "inordinate fear of communism" that had produced the containment theory that had kept the peace for three decades. In his first month in office he announced his intention to withdraw nuclear weapons and ground troops from South Korea, cut six billion dollars from the defense budget, cancel development of the Trident nuclear submarine, and defer construction of the neutron bomb.All of these proposals were made unilaterally, with no effort to induce concessions by the other side. Cyrus Vance, Carter's first secretary of state, was described by Democrat Morris Abram as the closest thing to a pure pacifist since William Jennings Bryan, and by Defense Secretary Harold Brown as a man who believed the use of force was always mistaken. Paul Warnke, Carter's chief arms-control negotiator, held views described by George Will as "engagingly childlike"--believing that if we disarmed, the Soviet Union would follow us. . .
Even Carter's much vaunted human-rights effort, which gave some people hope he would use it as a moral weapon against the Soviet Union, quickly lost much of its power and luster when it became evident that he intended to use it less against Communists than against the more marginal despots in the non-Communist orbit. Thus he embraced Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev at the 1979 arms-control summit and assured an assemblage of East Europeans that "the old ideological labels have lost their meaning," even as they remained under the Soviet boot. In Carter's State Department, the Sandinistas were thought to be moderates and the Ayatollah Khomeini a saintlike figure surrounded by "moderate, progressive individuals" with a notable "concern for human rights."
Ms. Emery goes on to mention many of the other debacles of the Carter Presidency that Mr. Hayward's book addresses, but then points out that Mr. Carter has perhaps exceeded the incompetence of his presidency by being arguably the worst former president in American history:
Carter the ex-president has been more destructive than Carter the president, and, if possible, still more annoying, undermining later presidents with the ruthless ambition that marked his career.
Herbert Hoover accepted the verdict of history when he lost in 1932 to Franklin Roosevelt, keeping a profile so low he was all but invisible. Carter instead reacted as if he had retired by choice with the thanks of the nation. He did some good work for general charities, and he was useful at least twice in his international forays: in Panama in 1986 when he faced Noriega, and unexpectedly in 2002 in Cuba when he went against type to tell Castro off. He also acquired a lengthy record of criticizing, weakening, and undercutting a series of American presidents.He publicly attacked Reagan's morals and competence. In 1990 and 1991, as George Bush was assembling the Gulf War coalition, Carter wrote secretly to Margaret Thatcher, Francois Mitterrand, Mikhail Gorbachev, and a dozen others, asking the U.N. Security Council not to back Bush. (Bush only found out what had happened when a stunned Brian Mulroney called Dick Cheney up to complain.) Bill Clinton soured on the ex-president after Carter's trip in 1994 to North Korea, in which he publicly embraced the dictator Kim Il Sung and negotiated a wholly worthless treaty banning production of nuclear weapons, which that country proceeded to break.
Carter of course made the same vehement objections to George W. Bush's war on terror as he had made to his father's war in the Gulf ten years earlier, going so far as to happily accept an award from the Nobel Prize committee that was given to him solely for the purpose of giving a black eye to America. "It should be interpreted as a criticism of the line that the current administration has taken," the Nobel committee chairman said helpfully, "a kick in the leg to all those that follow the same line as the U.S." Carter's "Lone Ranger work has taken him dangerously close to the neighborhood of what we used to call treason," Lance Morrow wrote in Time. As Hayward notes, Carter's successors have done far more than he did for human rights and for the nation's security. Iran and Nicaragua, the twin targets of his attention as president, turned on his watch into hell holes. And we can safely say that had he been reelected, or had his way afterward, the Soviet Union might still be in existence, and the oil fields of Kuwait and possibly Saudi Arabia might be in the hands of Iraq.
Finally, Ms. Emery notes that the Democratic Party has ultimately borne the brunt of the consequences of Mr. Carter's monumental lack of judgment:
No man has done more than he to create and empower the modern Republican party, which, when he became president, seemed down for the count. If he had been the man he seemed when he was running for president--an integrationist but a social conservative, a small businessman and ex-naval officer, a Rickover protege with a keen sense of power--he might have recreated the party of Truman and Kennedy. As it was, his incompetence and his blundering, coming after McGovern's extremism and the implosions of Humphrey and Johnson, was the last straw for a great many Democrats, who decided the chances they were willing to give to their party had more or less run their course. Under his goading, millions who had never believed they could vote for a Republican president crossed over to vote for an ex-movie actor.
The end of the Democrats as the national majority begins with Carter--as does the end of liberalism as the national creed. A lot has been written about the maturation of the conservative movement from Goldwater to the present day, but this of course is only one half of the story. It was not enough for the Republicans to become more poised and accessible. The Democrats had to collapse, freeing millions of voters to look at an alternative. No one symbolized this collapse more than did Jimmy Carter, victim of rabbits and America's muse of malaise.
Read the entire review. Ms. Emery and Mr. Hayward may be too harsh on Mr. Carter, who at least had the good sense to promote Paul Volker for the Federal Reserve chairmanship late in his term in office. But there is no question that his presidency was an unmitigated disaster for the Democratic Party in this country, and one from which the party is still attempting to recover to this day.
Posted by Tom at 7:29 PM
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Prescott on Social Security
2004 Nobel Prize in Economics recipient Edward C. Prescott writes this outstanding Wall Street Journal op-ed in which he makes a persuasive case that the time for transition of the current Social Security system to one based on mandatory individual retirement accounts is now:
The time is right to act, and we don't need a special commission to analyze the problem and recommend solutions because we already had one, and it submitted its report three years ago next month -- The President's Commission to Strengthen Social Security. The trouble is that little has happened since. It's time to dust off that report, sharpen our policy pencils and get to work on reforming our Social Security system before it's too late.The main contribution of that 2001 bipartisan commission was to propose the establishment of a system of voluntary personal accounts, which would increase national savings as well as increase labor-force participation -- more on that later. But this contribution is also the commission's main flaw, for the proposal does not go far enough. We need to establish a system of mandatory savings accounts for retirement, not voluntary. Without mandatory savings accounts we will not solve the time-inconsistency problem of people under-saving and becoming a welfare burden on their families and on the taxpayers. That's exactly where we are now.
Professor Prescott debunks the notion that individual retirement acccounts are somehow riskier than the current Social Security system:
Some politicians have vilified the idea of giving investment freedom to citizens, arguing that those citizens will be exposed to risks inherent in the market. But this is political scaremongering. U.S. citizens already utilize IRAs, 401Ks, PCOs, Keoghs, SEPs and other investment options just fine, thank you. If some people are conservative investors or managing for the short term, they direct their funds accordingly; if others are more inclined to take risks or looking at the long run, they make appropriate decisions. Consumers already know how to invest their money -- why does the government feel the need to patronize them when it comes to Social Security?It would be one thing if the government's Social Security system paid a decent return, but as the President's Commission reported, for a single male worker born in 2000 with average earnings, the real annual return on his currently-scheduled contributions to Social Security will be just 0.86%. And for a worker who earns the maximum amount taxed (then $80,400), the real annual return is a negative 0.72%. A bank would have to offer a pretty fancy toaster to get depositors at those rates of return.
Indeed, as Professor Prescott points out, the trend internationally is to such individual retirement accounts:
Further, about two dozen countries have reformed their state-run retirement programs, including Chile, Sweden, Australia, Peru, the U.K., Kazakhstan, China, Croatia and Poland. If citizens in these countries can handle individual savings accounts, especially citizens in countries without a history of financial freedom, then U.S. citizens should be equally adept. At a time when the rest of the world is dropping the vestiges of state control, the United States should be leading the way and not lagging behind.
In fact, Professor Prescott notes that the economic benefits of such accounts are substantial:
The benefits of such reform extend beyond the individual retirement accounts of U.S. citizens (although that would be reason enough for reform) -- they also accrue to the economy. As noted above, national savings will increase, as will participation in the labor force, both to the benefit of society. On the first point, more private assets means there will be more capital, which will have a positive impact on wages, which benefits the working people, especially the young. More capital also means that the economy will have more productive assets, which also contributes to more production.Regarding labor supply, any system that taxes people when they are young and gives it back when they are old will have a negative impact on labor supply. People will simply work less. Put another way: If people are in control of their own savings, and if their retirement is funded by savings rather than transfers, they will work more. And everyone is better off. These are the type of win-win situations that politicians and policy makers should be falling over themselves to accomplish.
And what about the horrendous "transition costs" that we hear would undermine the transition from the current Social Security system to one based on mandatory individual retirement accounts? Professor Prescott keenly dispenses with that objection:
Some analysts have suggested that we can't move from a transfer system to a saving system because current retirees will be left in the lurch. Who will pay for them if workers' money is suddenly shifted to individual savings accounts? There will indeed be a period of time, likely no more than 10 years, when narrowly defined government debt relative to gross national income would increase before decreasing. But government debt is small relative to the present value of the Social Security promises that currently exist. Further, the sum of the value of government debt and the value of these promises will start declining immediately.Under a reformed system there will always be some individuals who, owing to disabilities or other reasons that prevent them from working, will not have sufficient savings in their old age. The solution is to include a means-tested supplement to ensure that those citizens receive a required payment -- just like they receive today. Nobody gets left behind under this new system, and most will move ahead. U.S. citizens deserve more than a minimum payment, and the U.S. economy deserves more than to have its savings, capital and labor weighed down by an increasingly costly tax-and-transfer system.
And how would such a system work? Professor Prescott touts one:
Have three-quarters of employer and employee Social Security contributions (currently 12.4% of wages, salaries and proprietors' income up to $87,900) put into an individual savings account. This would be deferred income with taxes paid when people receive their retirement benefits. The other one-quarter of Social Security contributions would finance welfare and increase the labor supply, resulting in higher output and an increase in tax revenues.
Read the entire piece. Ed Prescott is definitely a clear thinker.
Update: Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution makes the case against forced savings accounts and for turning Social Security into a welfare program for the elderly.
Posted by Tom at 6:09 AM
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Alberto R. Gonzales is nominated to be U.S. Attorney General
Former Houston attorney (former partner at Vinson & Elkins) and current White House counsel Alberto Gonzales was nominated by President Bush Wednesday to succeed Attorney General John Ashcroft, who announced Tuesday that he is stepping down after serving as attorney general during the first Bush Administration.
Mr. Gonzales is a close, longtime adviser to President Bush. The 49-year-old Mr. Gonzales has been frequently mentioned as a possible nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court, but my sense is that there are numerous more qualified jurists for that position. The AG post is a much better fit for Mr. Gonzales. Mr. Gonzales would be the nation's 80th attorney general and the first Hispanic to hold the job.
Mr. Gonzales has a remarkable background. The son of Mexican immigrant parents, Mr. Gonzales was born in San Antonio and grew up sharing a two-bedroom house in Houston with his migrant-worker parents and seven siblings. From there, he went on to graduate from Houston's Rice University and Harvard Law School, and then to become a prominent Houston attorney who was involved in many community and state affairs. Mr. Gonzales has been with President Bush virtually from the start of his political career, as he served with then-Gov. Bush in Texas as general counsel, secretary of state and then as a Texas Supreme Court justice before becoming White House counsel.
Inasmuch as the Texas Supreme Court handles only civil cases, Mr. Gonzales had little experience in international law, national security law, or in criminal law when he came to Washington. But boy, did that change after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on New York and Washington. As White House counsel, Gonzales transformed that office from one that concentrated on domestic issues to one increasingly focused on fighting the war against the radical Islamic fascists. Under Mr. Gonzales's leadership, administration lawyers in the National Security Council, the Pentagon and the Justice Department elaborated on views that the war against the radical Islamic fascists was a new arena not covered by domestic laws or the Geneva Conventions and other treaties.
In particular, one potential blip in the confirmation process could be the Jan. 25, 2002 legal memo to the President in which Mr. Gonzales described the Geneva Convention on humane treatment of prisoners of war as "quaint" and "obsolete" in the war on terror. That legal opinion was intended to advise the President on the handling of al Qaeda and Taliban prisoners captured in the war in Afghanistan. The Bush administration views those combatants as not covered by the Geneva protections and other treaties.
Nevertheless, most political pundits believe that Mr. Gonzales will be confirmed with little trouble, probably early in 2005.
Posted by Tom at 5:25 AM
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November 10, 2004
The new Dallas sheriff
Lupe Valdez is a woman, a Hispanic, a Democrat and a lesbian. She is also the new sheriff of Dallas County. Read about here here in this Washington Post profile.
Posted by Tom at 7:42 AM
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November 9, 2004
Ray Fair assesses the election results
Yale professor Ray Fair's model for predicting Presidential elections were the subject of these prior posts here and here. In this new piece, Professor Fair tries to explain why his model predicted that President Bush would win 57.4% of the two-party popular vote when he actually got only 51.5% (he speculates that the war hurt Bush more than projected), and provides this early prediction regarding the 2008 race:
It is possible to use the current vote equation to make a prediction for 2008. There will be no incumbent running again (PERSON = 0), and the Republicans will have a negative duration effect (DURATION = 1). If, say, GROWTH is 3.0, INFLATION is 3.0, and GOODNEWS is 2, which is a moderately good economy, the vote prediction for the Republicans is 50.1 percent, a dead heat. So the main message for 2008 is that the election will be close if the economy is moderately good. It would take a quite strong economy for the equation to predict a comfortable Republican win, and it would take a quite weak economy for the equation to predict a comfortable Democratic win. The Democrats clearly have a much better shot in 2008 than they had in 2004 according to the equation.
Posted by Tom at 8:57 AM
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November 8, 2004
The Rovenian Candidate
Professor Ribstein of Ideoblog -- whose broad expertise in business law includes extensive knowledge on how business is portrayed in cinema -- continues development here of a sure-fire winning screenplay on how President Bush won the 2004 election. Enjoy.
Posted by Tom at 6:23 AM
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The politics of tax policy
This NY Times article reviews the growing consensus within the Bush Administration that something needs to be done with the federal government's absurdly complex and special interest-riddled income tax system. There is no real economic analysis of the alternatives here, just a review of the political implications of such a movement. The most hopeful quote in the article comes from a Democrat:
"It strikes me that there's consensus in the country, and hopefully in Washington, that the tax system is too complex, that it's full of loopholes that are exploited by special interests and that we need to simplify them," said Senator-elect Barack Obama of Illinois, a Democrat who won easy election to an open seat.Mr. Obama, speaking on "This Week" on ABC, said, "If we can arrive at a tax simplification agenda that is not resulting in a shift toward a more regressive tax system, but is instead genuinely making it simpler for ordinary Americans to file their tax returns without a lot of paperwork and gobbledygook, then I think that's something we could work together on."
Amen.
Posted by Tom at 5:53 AM
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November 6, 2004
John Edwards' political future, RIP?
No astute political analyst am I, this Economist article reflects my amateur political analysis towards John Edwards' political future:
Mr Edwards is well on the way to becoming a man with a brilliant future behind him. What did he add to the Democratic ticket other than a boyish smile and a well-honed stump speech? He failed to deliver either of the Carolinas to the party (even though he was born in the southern one and represented the northern one in the Senate). He has no clear ideological constituency.
In addition to the foregoing, Edwards' Senate seat was won by a Republican, he was surprisingly poor in his debate performance against Dick Cheney, and he made an incredibly inept gaffe late in the campaign after the death of Christopher Reeve. In view of all of this, my sense is that a decent case can be made that Edwards cost Kerry the election in a reasonably close race. That's not much of a foundation upon which to build a political future.
Posted by Tom at 9:16 AM
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Cancer in the House
Jamie Malanowski, a New York-based writer, pens this Washington Monthly op-ed on Houston congressman Tom DeLay and provides the following overview to a discussion of the various ethics complaints and criminal investigations that are currently dogging Mr. DeLay:
Tom DeLay is the most odious character in American politics today. He does not lack for competition, of course, but what sets him apart is that all of his perversions have been accomplished under the radar screen. Apart from his colorful name ?the Hammer,? DeLay has no public identity, and even that nickname will more likely inspire people outside the Beltway to think of old jocks like Fred Williamson or Dave Schultz than the beady-eyed former exterminator who terrifies Capitol Hill. . . Tom DeLay is a cancer cell, silently metastasizing.
Statesmanship is not a word that comes to mind when thinking about Tom DeLay.
Posted by Tom at 7:30 AM
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Liberal Dutch question Muslim assimilation
This Economist article addresses the second political murder in the Netherlands in the space of two years. The murder of outspoken and provocative film director, Theo van Gogh, by a Muslim radical has shocked Dutch society, which has long been the European epitome of tolerant and liberal values. Dutch people fear that they may now live in a place where violence has become a way of settling differences of opinion, especially over rocky relations with a growing Muslim minority. The article is an insightful account of the difficulties that even the most liberal Western culture faces in assimiliating intolerant Muslim fascism.
Posted by Tom at 7:14 AM
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November 5, 2004
Election map analysis
William J. Stuntz is a smart professor at Harvard Law School, and in this Tech Central Station article, provides an excellent and non-biased analysis of the voting patterns from Tuesday's Presidential election, including the following observation:
The best way to see how the two sides stack up is to look at one of those red-and-blue maps that seem to breed these days. Divide the country into three parts: Kerry's base, Bush's base, and the Midwest. Kerry's base is the Northeast -- everything North of the Potomac River and East of Ohio -- together with the Pacific Coast and Hawaii. (They don't call it the "left coast" for nothing.) Kerry swept his base 194-0. Bush's base is the South and the rest of the West. Bush swept his base too, by an electoral score of 237-0, assuming the New Mexico vote holds up. But Bush's base is bigger. Which means Kerry needed to nearly sweep the Midwest to catch up. He did carry the Midwest, but not by much: 58-49 in the electoral college. Bush carried Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, and Iowa -- and he could have lost any of the last three without changing the result.
Posted by Tom at 8:37 AM
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November 4, 2004
Scandal in the House of Representatives
This Washington Post editorial examines the scandal that is the self-perpetuating nature of the House of Representatives:
Out of 435 House races, incumbents lost only seven -- an even more impressive survival rate than that of two years ago, when eight incumbents were defeated. In nearly all House races, moreover, there was no serious doubt about the outcome: 95 percent of races were decided by a margin of more than 10 percent, according to the Center for Voting and Democracy, and an astonishing 83 percent were decided in 20-point-plus landslides.
How has this happened? Just take a look at the way in which we allow our Congressional districts to be established:
The main cause of the incumbents' success is the country's scandalous system for designing voter districts. Instead of entrusting the design to nonpartisan technocrats, the U.S. system entrusts it to state legislatures, allowing the majority party to promote partisan ends. The partisans feed demographic and polling data into their computers and come up with district boundaries that give their sides as many safe seats as possible. Because this process involves crowding opposition voters into a handful of opposition districts, it creates safe seats for both parties and an incentive for incumbents on both sides not to rock the boat.
And who has been at the forefront of this wrangling of Congressional districts? Of course, Tom DeLay and his friends:
The darkest wizardry occurred in Texas. There, the state Republican Party redrew the districts of five white Democrats, hoping to unseat all of them so that the Democrats would become identified as the party of minorities. The plan succeeded in four cases (outside Texas, a grand total of three incumbents were defeated anywhere). Rep. Charles W. Stenholm, a long-serving conservative Democrat who had been forced to run in a Republican-leaning district against a Republican incumbent, went down in defeat, as did three others who had pulled the Democratic caucus toward the center.The Texas redistricting faces a court challenge. But whatever the legal outcome, it's clear that these schemes are an inversion of democracy: Politicians get to choose their voters, rather than the other way around. Incumbent members of Congress face little threat of being unseated and so have little reason to be responsive to voters; their chief vulnerability lies in the threat of a primary, which encourages them to play to party activists.
The upshot of all of this is increased polarization in the political process:
[I]ndependent moderates are a shrinking force in the House of Representatives. In the 1970s, on the partisan roll calls, the average member backed the party position 65 percent of the time. In the 1980s, the average degree of partisan loyalty rose to 73 percent; in the 1990s, 81 percent; and in 2001-02 the partisanship index hit a remarkable 87 percent.
Quare: Is it time for judicial intervention over the legislative gerrymandering of Congressional districts?
Posted by Tom at 6:07 AM
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November 1, 2004
Ray Fair's updated prediction on the Presidential race
This earlier post from several months ago passed along an article about Yale Economics Professor Ray Fair's interesting model for predicting the results of Presidential elections. Here is Professor Fair's updated prediction, which forecasts President Bush winning 57.50% of the two-party vote.
On the other hand, Professor Bainbridge points out a less complicated indicator that favors Senator Kerry.
Posted by Tom at 7:01 AM
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October 30, 2004
Was Abe gay?
This LA Weekly article reviews the late C.A. Tripp's forthcoming book -- The Intimate World of Abraham Lincoln (Free Press 2005) -- in which the author concludes that there is a reasonable probability that Abraham Lincoln was gay. There actually has been speculation about Tripp's conclusion in historical circles for quite some time. Indeed, I recall Gore Vidal stating in television interviews years ago that, in researching his 1984 historical novel Lincoln, he began to suspect that Lincoln was gay. Give the article a look, and then wait for the return volleys from the more traditional Lincoln biographers.
Posted by Tom at 10:38 AM
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October 28, 2004
Where is your polling place?
Tom Mighell points us toward My Polling Place, where you can input your address and zip code, and the site provides you the address of the polling place where you are to vote and a map to the the polling place. Very handy. Check it out.
Posted by Tom at 9:25 AM
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October 26, 2004
And if you want to know what I really think . . .
Writing in this National Journal op-ed, Stuart Taylor is not particularly impressed with the quality of the two major parties' Presidential candidates this year:
One candidate is an intellectually shallow, closed-minded, strangely smirking, free-spending, hard-right culture warrior who combines smug ideological certitude with stunning indifference to facts and evidence, who is obsessed with shifting the tax burden from the wealthiest Americans to future generations, who claims virtually unlimited power to suspend constitutional liberties, who has alienated millions of America's onetime admirers abroad, and who has never made a mistake he would not repeat.The other is a both-sides-of-tough-issues, unlikable, aloof, cheap-shotting, free-spending political careerist whose domestic policies might make the Bush deficits even worse, whose Iraq policy shifts with every political wind, and who has long been close to his party's quasi-pacifist, lawsuit-loving Left.
Ouch!
Posted by Tom at 3:50 PM
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October 25, 2004
Hard to get a word in edgewise
As noted in this earlier post, John O'Neill is a prominent Houston attorney and Swift Boat Veteran who is a co-author of Unfit for Command that is highly critical of John Kerry's Vietnam War service and subsequent anti-war activities. Mr. O'Neill had a hard time getting a word in edgewise in this hilarious television interview with MSNBC analyst and Kerry supporter, Lawrence O'Donnell.
I must say that it is impressive that Mr. O'Donnell's performance made moderator Pat Buchanan appear to be absolutely moderate! ;^) Hat tip to the TigerHawk for the link to this interview.
Posted by Tom at 8:34 AM
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More on Bush Administration's discretionary spending policies
Following up on the analysis noted in this previous post, Victor over at the Dead Parrot Society has posted the second part of his analysis on the Bush Administation's record on domestic, non-defense, non-homeland security, discretionary spending. Inasmuch as the Bush Administration has come under criticism (including here) for its apparent profligacy in this area, I highly recommend reviewing Victor's analysis, which concludes as follows:
Bush's record on discretionary spending is not nearly as clear cut as the conventional wisdom would suggest. Bush has dramatically increased discretionary spending in certain specific areas like education. But if we are to try to glean information from his first-term record in order to predict his second term, the evidence is mixed. He isn't as frugal as Reagan, but isn't necessarily profligate, either. Upon examining his record in this much detail, I truly cannot say with much certainty whether a second Bush term would be fiscally conservative or whether his view of "compassionate conservatism" necessarily means more spending.(All of this analysis, of course, ignores the elephant in the room which is the Medicare Prescription Drug bill. But again, there, I'm not sure he'll do something like that again.)
Posted by Tom at 7:22 AM
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October 23, 2004
Daniel Drezner is voting for Kerry
Daniel Drezner, the assistant professor of poli sci at the University of Chicago who runs the smart Daniel W. Drezner blog, has decided to vote for John Kerry for president, albeit unenthusiastically. His post in which he publishes his decision links to a series of posts over the past several weeks in which Professor Dresner evaluates the pros and cons of each candidate. The series of posts is a highly informative resource for evaluating the positions of the candidates, particularly in the foreign policy arena.
I believe that Professor Drezner places too much emphasis in making his decision on criticism of the Bush Administration's tactical decisions in Iraq. History instructs us that even successful battlefronts rarely are without significant tactical errors -- unfortunately, such is the essential nature of the messy business of war. However, Professor Drezner's point about the lack of reasoned policy analysis and lack of intellectual flexibility in the Bush Administration is a valid criticism and reflects my biggest reservation about the current administration.
Posted by Tom at 9:04 AM
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October 22, 2004
The Bush Administration's discretionary spending
Victor over at the Dead Parrot Society has performed this interesting analysis of this earlier American Enterprise Institute study (linked in this earlier post via Marginal Revolution) in which the author of the AEI study -- Virginia de Rugy -- concluded that the Bush Administration compares poorly with other administrations over the past 40 years in terms of reducing the amount of major governmental agency or department spending. Victor focuses on comparing the second Clinton Administration's spending with the Bush Administration, and concludes as follows:
The numbers are ambiguous. By focusing only on discretionary expenditures, much -- but not all -- of the cyclical impact of the recession has been removed from the data. When you do this, Bush's spending looks much better outside of the well documented cases where he has made a conscious push to increase spending (like education). However, he still has not achieved a real reduction in any federal agency.But if you look at the actual Budget Authority levels, his administration actually has achieved a few reductions.
In both cases, of course, this has occurred in an environment where many agencies are adding homeland security requests to their budgets; I have only anecdotally adjusted for that. Regardless, the overall spending picture isn't quite as dreary as implied by DeRugy's original analysis.
Read the entire post. And as noted in this previous post, the prospect is remote that a Kerry Administration would be more restrained in terms of governmental spending than a second Bush Administration.
Quare: Is the difference between the increase in discretionary spending that would likely occur during the next four years under a second Bush Administration as compared to the increase that would likely take place under a Kerry Administration so marginal that it is not really a meaningful reason to favor one administration over the other?
Posted by Tom at 8:37 AM
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October 20, 2004
Paul Johnson on tough Presidential campaigns
British historian Paul Johnson (author of "Modern Times," "History of the Jews," "History of Christianity," "A History of the American People," and his more recent "Art, A New History," among others) is one of my favorites. In this WSJ ($) op-ed, Mr. Johnson notes that the nastiness of the 2004 Presidential Campaign really does not hold a candle to the campaign of 1928 between Andrew Jackson and John Quincy Adams:
[The 1928 campaign] inaugurated the habit of long campaigns, since Tennessee nominated Jackson for president as early as Spring 1825, more than three years before the vote. . .Adams's supporters retaliated by the campaign poster known as the Coffin Handbill, listing 18 murders Jackson was supposed to have committed. Those who claim the current election is the dirtiest know little about 1828. An English visitor, shown a school in New England (where Adams was paramount), put questions to the class, including "Who killed Abel?" A child promptly replied "General Jackson, Ma'am." An Adams pamphlet accused Jackson of "trafficking in human flesh," another accused his wife of being a bigamist and adulterer. After seeing it, she took to her bed and died shortly after the election. To his dying day Jackson believed his political enemies had murdered her. On his side, pamphlets accused Adams of fornication, procuring American virgins for the Tsar while serving as ambassador in Russia, and being an alcoholic and sabbath-breaker. A White House inventory listing a billiard-table and a chess-set led to the accusation that Adams had introduced "gambling furniture." (His most curious presidential habit, of taking a daily swim in the Potomac stark naked, went unnoticed.)
Jackson won the popular vote in this first razzmatazz election, 647,276 to 508,064, and the College by a clear majority. His inauguration was followed by a saturnalia in which thousands of his supporters invaded the White House and engaged in a drinking spree. The Spoils System (a new term) was inaugurated by the ejection of Adams's men from public offices, a process called The Massacre of the Innocents.
And what does Mr. Johnson think about the qualitiy of the current campaign? Apparently, not much:
In recent decades the most significant election was 1980, when Reagan beat Jimmy Carter and so inaugurated the policies which demolished the "Evil Empire" of the Soviet Union, and ended the Cold War in a Western victory. Reagan won this election, which I covered closely, with wit and one-liners. The current election is likely to be significant, too, in deciding the strategy and tactics of the war against terrorism. But wit, alas, will play little part.
Posted by Tom at 7:19 AM
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More on Kerry's income taxes
This post from last week addressed the hypocrisy of John Kerry's political position that the federal government should raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans while his wife continues to use loopholes in the tax laws to pay a lower percentage of taxes than most other Americans.
In this editorial, the Wall Street Journal ($) takes deal aim at the issue and points out the advantages that super-rich folks such as Mrs. Heinz-Kerry have over working stiffs, starting with Ms. Heinz-Kerry's avoidance of the payroll (i.e., Social Security) tax:
One point we failed to mention is that Mrs. Kerry paid only a token Social Security tax. That's because the payroll tax is assessed on wages, and Mrs. Kerry declared very little wage income. She gets most of her income from dividends and interest, as many wealthy people do. This is fine by us, but it is one more advantage she has over the vast majority of Americans who draw a weekly paycheck and must (with their employer) cough up the 15.3% payroll levy.
And that advantage is just one of many that super-rich folks such as Ms. Heinz-Kerry enjoys under that income tax system that Mr. Kerry seeks to perpetuate:
Our main point is that this is one more advantage Mrs. Kerry would have over working stiffs on salary if her husband wins the White House and follows through on his plan to raise taxes.It's very hard to dodge a tax increase on salary income, especially for middle-class folk who need the money. Many couples who earn more than $200,000 a year are non-wealthy Americans who happen to be at the peak of their earning years and have big bills (such as college educations) to meet now or down the road. They haven't had time -- or been lucky enough to marry rich -- to build up the assets to be able to live off tax-free investments the way Mrs. Kerry can. The super-rich, as opposed to the merely successful, are the ones who are really able to avoid taxes -- which, come to think of it, may be why so many billionaires are supporting John Kerry.
The data on average tax rates actually reflects the highly progressive nature of the tax system, except for the super-rich who can hire lawyers and accountants to avoid paying taxes:
As it happens, the IRS has just released its data on individual income tax returns for 2002. And they reinforce our point about average tax rates. Recall that Mrs. Kerry paid an average tax rate of 12.4% on her declared income of $5.07 million. In 2002, even after the first round of Bush tax cuts, the average rate paid by all taxpayers was still higher than that at 13.03%.As for the folks in her wealthy neighborhood, in 2002 the top 1% of taxpayers paid an average rate (also known as the effective tax rate) of 27.25%. By the way, the income threshold for getting into that 1% group was only $285,424, down substantially from 2000 and 2001. And that same top 1% of earners paid 33.7% of all income taxes in 2002. The way to think about these numbers is that, despite the Bush tax cuts that allegedly so favored the rich, the tax code remains highly progressive. And these people kept paying the lion's share of all taxes even though their earnings declined amid the recession and stock-market slump.
But the most interesting question in regard to Ms. Heinz-Kerry's tax return is the following:
But back to Mrs. Kerry: Some readers wondered how she could be worth nearly $1 billion (as the Los Angeles Times has estimated) and earn only $5.07 million in 2003. Good question. It's impossible to tell given that Mrs. Kerry has disclosed only two pages of her 1040 form and declines to explain how her assets are deployed. But we agree with those readers who suggest that much of her wealth must be tied up in trusts and estates that don't require a declaration of income. Like many of the super-rich, Mrs. Kerry can afford to hire lawyers and accountants to create these shelters for her and her heirs.The late, great Wall Street Journal editor Barney Kilgore used to say that the rich don't mind high taxes because they already have their money. Mrs. Kerry and her husband are cases in point.
Inasmuch as the Bush Administration has done nothing during its first four years on making the income tax system in the U.S. simpler and more transparent, it is disappointing to me that the Democratic challenger's platform in this area is a hypocritical and demogogic appeal for votes rather than a substantive proposal for reform of a broken system.
Posted by Tom at 6:55 AM
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October 19, 2004
Oscar Wyatt's deal with the devil
This NY Times article follows up on last week's news that longtime Houstonian Oscar Wyatt is one of three individuals and four companies that federal investigators are focusing on for who allegedly receiving vouchers for oil from Saddam Hussein as he sought to flout United Nations sanctions. The Times article notes the close relationship between Mr. Wyatt and Saddam:
Mr. Wyatt . . . traveled to Baghdad as recently as early 2003, as the United States was preparing for war, to meet with officials in Mr. Hussein's government. Mr. Wyatt - once called in Texas Monthly magazine "the most hated oilman in Texas" - met Mr. Hussein in 1972, just after Iraq's oil industry had been nationalized, and eventually became one of the biggest United States importers of Iraqi oil.The two met again in 1990, after Iraq invaded Kuwait and Mr. Wyatt flew to Baghdad on a company jet to help negotiate the release of nearly two dozen American oil workers whom Mr. Hussein had turned into "human shields."
The relationship was so close that when the United Nations authorized Iraq in 1996 to begin selling oil again, under the Oil for Food program, Mr. Wyatt and Coastal secured the first tanker shipment to leave the country.
And that close relationship is at the heart of the criminal investigation into Mr. Wyatt's activities:
The years of effort on Mr. Wyatt's part to court Iraqi officials and build a venture to export Iraqi oil to the United States produced ample rewards: he and companies that he has been linked to earned an estimated $23 million in profit in the seven years of the Oil for Food program, according to sales and profit estimates included in the C.I.A. report by Charles Duelfer; Mr. Wyatt disputes that figure.
And, lest we forget, Mr. Wyatt's used his relationship with Saddam to attain a humanitarian achievement:
By the late 1980's, Coastal was importing as much as 250,000 barrels of oil a day from Iraq. As these oil imports became more and more important to Coastal's operations, Mr. Wyatt became more outspoken in his opposition to any threatened or standing trade sanctions by the United States in the Middle East, . . . including a move by Congress to impose restrictions on trade with Iraq after Mr. Hussein used poison gas against the Kurds.It was Mr. Wyatt's surprise trip to Baghdad in December 1990, however, that finally brought his relationship with Iraq into the spotlight. He met then with Mr. Hussein to negotiate the release of American hostages. The effort was opposed by the administration of George H. W. Bush, but Mr. Wyatt came home a hero and he wept at a meeting of the released hostages and their families.
"It was not a stunt," said Bobby Parker, a drilling rig electrician who had been held for 128 days before being rescued. "Oscar Wyatt is just not that type of person."
The hostages were safe, but ultimately, Mr. Wyatt's goal had not been fully achieved. He had hoped to prevent a military move by the United States on Iraqi-occupied Kuwait, a war that, he said, the United States had no reason to start.
Five years later in 1996, Mr. Wyatt's relations with Iraq were again in the news:
Mr. Wyatt's ties to Iraq again raised eyebrows, when the first tanker laden with crude oil sailed out of Mina al-Bakr, Iraq's main export oil terminal, in December 1996, in Iraq's legal return to global oil markets.The ship had been chartered by one of Mr. Wyatt's companies.
This was the start of the Oil for Food program, which ultimately would result in the export of 3.4 billion barrels, earning $65 billion for the Iraqi government over the next seven years, money that was used to buy food and medicine, maintain oil fields and pay reparations from the first gulf war, among other spending.
My Wyatt, through spokespersons, declines to comment on any of this other than to deny that he engaged in any wrongdoing with regard to his business relations with Iraq. However, the Times article notes that one competitor characterized Mr. Wyatt's propensity to enter into difficult business deals in the following manner:
"He is not afraid of the devil."
Posted by Tom at 4:12 PM
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Bush's trouble with Treasury Secretaries
The WSJ's ($) Alan Murray is spot on with regard to his analysis in his weekly Political Capital column that the Bush Administration's second Treasury Secretary -- John Snow -- has been just as ineffective as the Bush Administration's first Treasury Secretary, Paul O'Neill:
Even some of the administration's closest allies wonder: Why has Mr. Bush failed in his first four years to find an effective Treasury secretary? And can he be expected to do any better in a second term?Messrs. O'Neill and Snow have proved the least effective in recent memory. And it is worth asking: Why? Part of the answer comes from the fact that national-security concerns have pushed economic matters to the back burner. The secretaries of state and defense have been in the spotlight in this administration, and economic policy has been secondary.
But much of the answer comes from the fact that, for this administration, economic policy has been a direct extension of political strategy. The tax cuts that characterized President Bush's first term were forged during the campaign, and were as much a plan for election and re-election as for economic reinvigoration. The Treasury secretary's job was taken over, in effect, by political adviser Karl Rove.
If Mr. Bush is re-elected, that could change. He won't be running for a third term and he won't be pushing tax cuts. Yawning budget deficits make that certain. And unless Brother Jeb Bush signs him on, Karl Rove will have lost his client.
That could be the chance for a new approach to economic policy. President Bush has suggested an ambitious agenda for his second term. He wants to rewrite the tax code, to encourage savings and eliminate loopholes. He wants to give Americans more control over their health-care plans. And he wants to remake the Social Security system, restoring its finances while creating private accounts for younger workers. If he is serious about all this, he will need a very strong Treasury secretary at his side.
Quare: Each of the policy initiatives mentioned in the foregoing paragraph make sense and would be supported by the vast majority of Americans. Given the Bush Administration's track record, is it more likely that such initiatives would be seriously pursued in a second Bush Administration or in a Kerry Administration?
Posted by Tom at 11:32 AM
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The Birthplace of Bush Paranoia
Several months ago, Professor Ribstein commented on the phenomena in this election of Bush-bashing, which the Professor observed is premised on "an assumption that Bush and his supporters are not credible -- that they are all idiots or worse."
Along those lines, this Weekly Standard article by Andrew Ferguson examines how the political culture of Austin, Texas facilitated the Bush-bashing phenomenom. As Mr. Ferguson notes, Austin is . . . well, different from most other places in Texas:
With its university-town origins, its large population of musicians and artists, its long tradition of political liberalism, Austin is, as Jeff says, the "anti-Texas," where "Texans who don't really like Texas" choose to live. More important, it has also, in a larger sense, exported its own peculiar brand of Bush hatred to Democrats from one coast to the other.
And Mr. Ferguson points out that Austin's brand of political opposition to President Bush may backfire big-time:
Austin has a lot to answer for, whether you're a Democrat or a Republican. Ponder for a moment the strange course the presidential campaign has followed these last 18 months. Judged by the simplest, crudest criterion--comparing the state of the world as it was the day he took office with the world as it will be on the day he stands for reelection--George W. Bush should be the most easily beatable presidential incumbent since Jimmy Carter. A frontal assault on Bush's record, repeated endlessly and packaged cleverly, might well have resulted in a walkaway win for whoever the Democrats had chosen to oppose him.It hasn't worked out that way, as we know. Bush's opponents instead find themselves in a tight race they well might lose. There are lots of reasons why, but one surely is that instead of mounting a substantial critique of what the president has done and hasn't done, his Democratic adversaries have obsessed over piecing together odd, paranoid caricatures of the man who's driving them nuts--Bush as the agent of Halliburton, Bush as the idiot son of Robber Baron privilege, Bush the religious crank, the right-wing ideologue, the draft-dodger, the front man for Enron or Rove or the Saudi royals or J.R. Ewing.
Interestingly, Mr. Ferguson notes that the trouble with the Austin-style of opposition to Mr. Bush is the underlying insecurity of those who promote it:
[An essential characteristic of the Bush-haters is] hatred for themselves as Texans. "Keep Austin weird" is the cute, self-congratulatory, semi-official motto the city's residents repeat insistently, and there is, sure enough, something weird here. But the city isn't weird in the way Austinites think it is. No matter where in Austin you find yourself--the waiting room of an auto body shop, the men's room of a beer joint--you'll be confronted with a community bulletin board coated thickly with fliers announcing a poetry contest or some new development in Hatha Yoga technique. In that way Austin is no weirder than any other college town. It's weirdness lies in the fact that, unlike every other college town--Madison, Wisconsin; Lawrence, Kansas; Eugene, Oregon--it has never made peace with its home state. Texas progressivism sets itself in opposition to its surroundings, defines itself by what it isn't. It depends on a blend of boosterism (for Austin and for a few progressive neighborhoods in Houston) and contempt (for everything else north of the Rio Grande Valley and south of the Mason Dixon line). "The feeling you get in Austin sometimes," Nathan Husted told me, "is like we're all living in West Berlin during the Cold War."
Even the flap over the now infamous 60 Minutes segment that relied on a untested forged document regarding Mr. Bush's National Guard service has its genesis in the Austin culture of hatred toward Mr. Bush:
For our purposes, however, what was most interesting about the 60 Minutes imbroglio was the light it shed on the tiny, hermetic world of Texas Bush-hating. Rather himself--perhaps the world's most prominent Texas Bush-hater--has a daughter, Robin, who is an activist in, and future contender for the chairmanship of, Austin's Travis County Democratic party, which Rather once helped raise money for and whose chairman at that time, David Van Os, now serves as the attorney for Bill Burkett, who gave 60 Minutes the bogus documents and who has worked as a source for James C. Moore, who discovered the Austin4Kerry tape and whose book, Bush's Brain, was co-written by Wayne Slater, Austin bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News, whose News colleague, Mark Wrolstad, is married to Mapes, who produced the 60 Minutes segment and who knew Moore when both were TV reporters in Houston, where Mapes still lives. It's dizzying to think what Bush-haters would do with this web of intimacies if they were on the other side.
Read the entire piece. Quare: Is the Bush-bashing phenomena the natural result and counterbalance to the proliferation of demogogic right wing pundits that have arisen over the past decade (i.e., Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, etc.)? Or did the latter naturally evolve in response to the former?
Posted by Tom at 10:10 AM
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October 18, 2004
DeLay's bid to buy the Texas Legislature
Lou Dubose -- co-author of The Hammer: Tom DeLay, God, Money, and the Rise of the Republican Congress (Public Affairs 2004) and Shrub: The Short but Happy Political Life of George W. Bush (Vintage 2000) -- pens this LA Weekly article summarizing the development of the multiple criminal and Congressional investigations into U.S. Representative Tom DeLay's allegedly illegal campaign fund-raising scheme that had as its goal the Republican takeover of the Texas Legislature. Mr. Dubose notes the background of DeLay's fundraising effort:
For 10 years the Republican Party had been trying to capture the Texas House. Party operatives aimed for 2000 so the House, the Senate and the state?s Republican governor could have absolute control of redrawing the state?s congressional district lines when the Legislature met after the 2000 census. Despite years of spending record sums on campaigns, in 2000 they fell short. And the Democratic House speaker refused to go along with the governor and Senate?s effort to reconfigure the state?s district lines so that a half-dozen more congressional seats could be won by Republicans.That?s when Tom DeLay came home to Texas. Working with one of his Washington operatives, he created a political-action committee in Texas, modeled on his own national PAC. Texans for a Republican Majority was spectacularly successful. It raised $1.5 million and elected 17 new Republican members of the state House, seizing control of the body for the first time in 130 years. With his handpicked Texas House speaker in place, DeLay personally presided over the redrawing of the state?s congressional districts. The map he put in place will provide the Republicans five to seven new seats in Congress.
As Mr. Dubose notes, there is a small problem with Mr. DeLay's fundraising efforts:
Since 1905, it?s been against state law to raise or spend corporate money in Texas [political campaigns]. And DeLay?s Texas PAC raised three-quarters of a million corporate dollars. They reported their corporate contributions only with the IRS in Washington, avoiding disclosure to the state agency that regulates elections in Texas. Ronnie Earle, a D.A. with statewide prosecutorial authority, caught them. He also found they were doing some odd things with their money, like sending $190,000 corporate ?soft? dollars to the Republican National State Election Committee in Washington in exchange for $190,000 non-corporate ?hard? dollars that can be legally spent in Texas.
Mr. Dubose also does not find Mr. DeLay's protestations about his relative non-involvement with Texans for a Republican Majority to be particularly credible:
DeLay insists he had little to do with Texans for a Republican Majority, which seems odd since he founded it. And the PAC?s Texas director said under oath that DeLay was consulted on PAC activities. DeLay has said he raised no corporate money himself, but a June 24, 2002, letter I found in the exhibits of a civil suit filed in Austin suggests otherwise:Dear Congressman DeLay:On behalf of the Williams Companies Inc., I am pleased to forward our contribution of $25,000 for the [Texans for a Republican Majority] that we pledged at the June 2 fund-raisers.
With best wishes . . .
Read the entire piece. Regardless of whether DeLay fades an indictment over his campaign fundraising, his designs on the Speaker of the House's chair in Washington are (thankfully) no longer viable.
Posted by Tom at 6:07 AM
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October 15, 2004
Crossing the line
Charles Krauthammer thinks John Edwards crossed the line, and he supports his argument with wisdom generated from personal experience:
This is John Edwards on Monday at a rally in Newton, Iowa:"If we do the work that we can do in this country, the work that we will do when John Kerry is president, people like Christopher Reeve are going to walk, get up out of that wheelchair and walk again."In my 25 years in Washington, I have never seen a more loathsome display of demagoguery. Hope is good. False hope is bad. Deliberately, for personal gain, raising false hope in the catastrophically afflicted is despicable.
Where does one begin to deconstruct this outrage?
First, the inability of the human spinal cord to regenerate is one of the great mysteries of biology. The answer is not remotely around the corner. It could take a generation to unravel. To imply, as Edwards did, that it is imminent if only you elect the right politicians is scandalous.
Second, if the cure for spinal cord injury comes, we have no idea where it will come from. There are many lines of inquiry. Stem cell research is just one of many possibilities, and a very speculative one at that. For 30 years I have heard promises of miracle cures for paralysis (including my own, suffered as a medical student). The last fad, fetal tissue transplants, was thought to be a sure thing. Nothing came of it.
As a doctor by training, I've known better than to believe the hype -- and have tried in my own counseling of people with new spinal cord injuries to place the possibility of cure in abeyance. I advise instead to concentrate on making a life (and a very good life it can be) with the hand one is dealt. The greatest enemies of this advice have been the snake-oil salesmen promising a miracle around the corner. I never expected a candidate for vice president to be one of them. . .
Politicians have long promised a chicken in every pot. It is part of the game. It is one thing to promise ethanol subsidies here, dairy price controls there. But to exploit the desperate hopes of desperate people with the promise of Christ-like cures is beyond the pale.There is no apologizing for Edwards's remark. It is too revealing. There is absolutely nothing the man will not say to get elected.
My sense is that the Kerry-Edwards Campaign staff will be deploying a trap door device for Mr. Edwards if he does this Benny Hinn imitation again before Election Day.
Posted by Tom at 7:21 AM
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October 11, 2004
On the politics of income taxes
Count me as one who is skeptical of John Kerry's position that soaking the rich with more income taxes is the way to relieve middle class tax rates and to reduce the federal government's deficit. Similarly, I am not particularly sanguine about the prospects for income tax reform and simplification in a second Bush Administration. However, it is somewhat galling to listen to Mr. Kerry decry income tax "loopholes" for wealthy Americans while, at the same time, taking advantage of those loopholes personally.
In this Wall Street Journal op-ed, Stephen Moore of the Club for Growth takes dead aim at the hypocrisy of Senator Kerry's position on the income tax:
According to the Kerrys' own tax records, . . . the couple had a combined income of $6.8 million in income last year and paid $725,000 in income taxes. That means their effective tax rate was a whopping 12.8%.
Under the current tax system the middle class pays far more than the Kerry tax rate. In fact, the average federal tax rate -- combined payroll and income tax -- for a middle-class family is closer to 20% or more. George W. and Laura Bush, who had an income one-tenth of the Kerrys', paid a tax rate of 30%.
Of course, there is delicious irony in the Kerry family tax-return data. Here is the man who finds clever ways to reduce his own tax liability while voting for higher taxes on the middle class dozens of times in his Senate career. He even voted against the Bush tax cut that saves each middle-class family about $1,000.The Kerrys have unwittingly made the case for what George W. Bush says he wants to do: radically simplify and flatten out the tax code. Dick Armey and Steve Forbes have persuasively argued over the years that America should have a flat tax with a rate of 17% to 19%. John Kerry has consistently opposed a flat tax, because he says it would be a tax break for the rich. But the truth is with a 19% flat tax, some rich people with lavish tax shelters, like John Kerry, would pay more taxes. I calculate that the Kerrys would pay another $500,000 of taxes if we had a flat tax.
Meanwhile, Steven Pearlstein in this Washington Post op-ed takes a look at the current corporate tax bill in Congress and throws up his hands:
It remains a mystery why Congress feels such a need to reduce corporate tax burdens even further. Despite what you hear from politicians and the National Association of Manufacturers, there is precious little economic evidence linking reductions in corporate profit taxes to job creation. Struggling firms don't have profits, while successful ones with ample cash flow are likely to base hiring decisions on whether the new employees will generate new profits.This is largely a Republican bill reflecting the majority party's tax-cutting philosophy and increasingly strong corporate ties. But it says something about the moral and intellectual bankruptcy of congressional Democrats -- and their lack of political imagination -- that they haven't rallied behind a Senate filibuster of this legislative abomination. If, at a time of record federal budget deficits, a self-proclaimed "party of the people" can't take a principled stand against the biggest corporate tax giveaway in a generation, maybe it doesn't deserve to be the majority party.
And finally, check out Professor Maule's analysis of the candidates' statements in regard to taxation policy, a part of which follows:
Listening to these two candidates spar over taxes was unpleasant. They toss about sound-bite phrases but I would be shocked if they really understood the underlying issues.Though each candidate tried to paint the other?s tax philosophy as bringing a significantly different approach to the table, neither one persuaded me that they get it. Both hold philosophies that complicate the code. Neither one addressed the flaws inherent in taxing capital gains and dividends at lower rates; the plans advocated by each candidate would continue to treat these types of income as less deserving of taxation than are wages.
Update (10/12-13/04): Trent, a reader of the blog, points us to this Kerry-Edwards Campaign press release from May of this year regarding Ms. Heinz-Kerry's tax return, and Buster points us to another site that purports to refute Mr. Moore's analysis.
The press release and the website analysis are both somewhat ambiguous because they make assertions that cannot be verified without reviewing the actual tax returns (or at least having an independent expert review them). However, Trent fairly points out that the Mrs. Heinz-Kerry paid taxes equal to a more reasonable 32% of their taxable income, and that Mr. Moore's 12.8% rate appears to be based on total income, which includes non-taxable income. The other website's analysis -- i.e., that the Kerrys' lower taxable income was purely the result of the Kerrys' charitable donations -- is not at all clear to me from the available information.
However, the fact remains that the Kerrys take advantage of loopholes in the tax laws by sheltering roughly half of their income in tax-exempt investment vehicles. Frankly, I see nothing wrong with this as the Kerrys are simply doing what our antiquated tax laws allow. Nevertheless, Mr. Kerry would be more credible to independent voters such as me if he would advocate reasonable income tax reform and simplification -- an area in which the Bush Administration has failed miserably -- rather than engaging in divisive demagoguery regarding tax loopholes while enjoying the benefits of those same loopholes.
Posted by Tom at 6:10 AM
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October 7, 2004
The public policy failure of the Texas Robin Hood school finance system
Virginia Postrel of Dallas, who runs the smart Dynamist.com blog, does an excellent job of explaining in this NY Times article the public policy failure that is the current Texas Robin Hood public school finance system.
As Ms. Postrel notes, the problem is not with equalizing benefits between rich and poor school districts, but rather the structure under which such equalization was to be achieved:
Robin Hood does not just move money from rich school districts to poor school districts. It does so in a way that destroys far more wealth than it transfers, and that erodes the tax base on which school funding depends.To understand why Robin Hood is so destructive, consider the market price of a given house. The home's value depends not just on how big the house is or whether it has walk-in closets and granite countertops.
Property taxes depress the value of a house. The amenities those taxes buy, including good schools, increase the value. The final price reflects the net value of the taxes the homeowner pays.
Robin Hood essentially raises taxes while reducing benefits, creating a downward spiral in home values and property tax receipts. For each district, the state divides the total assessed value of property in the district by the number of pupils. (Districts get higher per-pupil weightings for such factors as students with learning disabilities or limited English proficiency.)
The state then compares this number with a confiscation threshold. The district keeps the taxes on the property base below the threshold. But every single penny collected on the property value above the threshold goes to the state.
Not surprisingly, Ms. Postrel notes that, when homebuyers no longer get as much education for their taxes, buyers will not pay as much for houses:
During the 1990's, "a period of unusually rapid income growth for the wealthy," the economists note, the property value per pupil actually fell in the state's wealthiest 5 percent of school districts, even without accounting for inflation.That drop was bad news for everyone. Robin Hood assumed that house prices would stay pretty much the same, so that property-rich districts would continue to provide ample tax dollars to the rest of the state. Instead, every year the tax base became smaller in the rich districts.
To meet its commitments to poor districts, the state effectively lowered the real value of the confiscation threshold. Corrected for inflation, the threshold was $340,000 per weighted pupil in 1994, when the system was established. By 2002, it had fallen to $305,000.
But lowering the threshold further depresses home values. A death spiral sets in.
As homebuyers switch from the once-rich districts into moderately priced districts, property values hit the threshold in those districts, setting yet another spiral in motion.
And while the state is pushing down the confiscation threshold, districts try to keep up by raising their property tax rates, pushing down home values even more.
Ms. Postrel notes that correcting the system is certainly not impossible:
[The solution is to bring] well-established principles of efficient taxation to bear on school finance. Transfers . . . should be funded through a statewide tax, while local taxes pay for local amenities.But even local taxes could be more efficient. Instead of confiscating 100 percent of everything above a certain property-value threshold, . . . the state could take a much smaller percentage of the whole tax base.
"One of the principles of public finance is that having a high tax rate on a small base is very inefficient, whereas having a lower tax rate on a larger base is less distortionary, " observes Ilyana Kuziemko, a Havard University economist who co-wrote with Caroline M. Hoxby a new working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research entitled Robin Hood and His Not-So-Merry Plan: Capitalization and the Self-Destruction of Texas' School Finance Equalization Plan.
As noted in this earlier post, the handling of public school finance by the Republican-dominated Texas Legislature has been so inept that it gives rise to reasonable questions regarding whether a Republican-controlled state government is capable of addressing such public policy issues in a responsible and effective manner. However, Professors Hoxby and Kuziemko note that the primary reason for the public policy failure of the Robin Hood public school finance system is much simpler than poor political leadership:
"Lawyers, not economists, designed the system.''
Posted by Tom at 9:16 AM
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October 1, 2004
The hypocrisy of the Feds suing Big Tobacco
In his WSJ ($) Business World column this week, Holman Jenkins, Jr. addresses the Justice Department's latest lawsuit against the big tobacco companies, and notes that the public relations benefit of such lawsuits far outweighs any meaningful public benefit:
Were there a single element of human or policy interest in the trial launched by the Justice Department last week, it would be the department's conspicuous pride in admitting that it had spent an unprecedented $139 million preparing the case. To what end? In its dubious interpretation of racketeering law, the government seeks "disgorgement" of profits earned over half a century from selling cigarettes to smokers who started before age 21 -- a newly identified demographic category that Justice calls the "youth addicted population."But those 50 years of profits were long ago distributed to shareholders. They won't be found around the premises in a vault at Philip Morris, er, Altria.
Indeed, just who is the real owner of the big tobacco companies? It might surprise you to find out:
[G]overnment already gets the lion's share of the proceeds of their continued smoking. Consider: A pack costs about $2.15 at the factory gate, of which the industry's after-tax profit is about 17 cents. Federal excise tax takes 39 cents, while state taxes range from Virginia's 37 cents to New Jersey's $2.73.Then there's the additional, and novel, new "tax" imposed by the 1998 settlement with 46 states, which comes to about 50 cents a pack, though no legislator was ever obliged to cast a vote to impose this price hike on smokers.
Bottom line: The industry's shareholders long ago were reduced to the role of cutouts, allowed to keep collecting a small piece of the pie so politicians can go on posing as scourges of "Big Tobacco" even as government has become, effectively, the "beneficial owner" of the major tobacco companies.
And the public relations benefit to the federal government from these lawsuits also has a rather stark cost:
Revenuers, after all, have imbibed a great deal of free-lunchism from the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids, which shouts in one of its press releases: "Raising State Tobacco Taxes Always Increases State Revenues." Ditto the World Bank, which officially estimates that a 10% tax hike causes only a 4% decline in consumption. The bank goes out of its way to applaud governments like Greece's and Turkey's, which get upwards of 10% of their revenue from cigarette taxes.Of course, a less decorous way of saying the same thing is that governments have learned to be calculating exploiters of the "inelastic" demand of addicted cigarette smokers.
But Mr. Jenkins points out that this ruse likely will not on much longer, but for economic reasons, not good public policy ones:
What might torpedo it politically, if not legally, however, is evidence that the lines are crossing and higher prices are leading to lower revenues.We're already there: Revenues under the state settlement have lately begun declining at 4.5% a year, twice as fast as predicted and faster than can be explained by smuggling or smokers switching to renegade brands or roll-your-own.
If this keeps up, we may find out whether the government is really interested in curbing smoking -- or in profiting from it.
Read the entire piece. This reminds me a bit of the Texas Republicans' proposal earlier this year to subsidize state public school finance through an increase in notoriously volatile taxes on gambling within the state. Republicans should be wary that independent voters will figure out that something is terribly skewed about government raising money from activities such as gambling and smoking that it really ought not to be promoting.
Posted by Tom at 6:08 AM
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September 27, 2004
Kerry's management style
My sense is that the upcoming Presidential election is going to be a much closer race than many Bush Administration supporters currently think, so this NY Sunday Times article on John Kerry's management style is timely in that it provides some insight into how a President Kerry would go about making decisions.
Mr. Kerry, who is a former prosecutor, is a four term senator without any meaningful management experience in terms of running a business, so his management style is primarily reflected on how he runs his campaign:
Mr. Kerry is a meticulous, deliberative decision maker, always demanding more information, calling around for advice, reading another document ? acting, in short, as if he were still the Massachusetts prosecutor boning up for a case.He stayed up late last Sunday night with aides at his home in Beacon Hill, rewriting ? and rearguing ? major passages of his latest Iraq speech, a ritual that aides say occurs even with routine remarks.
In interviews, associates repeatedly described Mr. Kerry as uncommonly bright, informed and curious.
But Mr. Kerry's curiousity brings with it an indecisiveness borne of a tendency to become deluged in what I refer to as "data dumps:"
But the downside to his deliberative executive style, they said, is a campaign that has often moved slowly against a swift opponent, and a candidate who has struggled to synthesize the information he sweeps up into a clear, concise case against Mr. Bush.Even his aides concede that Mr. Kerry can be slow in taking action, bogged down in the very details he is so intent on collecting, as suggested by the fact that he never even used the Medicare information he sent his staff chasing.
His attention to detail can serve him well on big projects, as it did when he sent aides scurrying across the country to find long-lost fellow Vietnam veterans who could vouch for his war record. But sometimes, his aides say, it is a distraction, as it was in early 2003, when they say he spent four weeks mulling the design of his campaign logo, consulting associates about what font it should use and whether it should include an American flag. (It does.)
His habit of soliciting one more point of view prompted one close adviser to say he had learned to wait until the last minute before weighing in: Mr. Kerry, he said, is apt to be most influenced by the last person who has his ear.
And whereas President Bush rarely makes management changes in his top circle of advisors, Kerry often does:
Mr. Kerry has also, in this campaign and earlier ones, repeatedly upended his staff, edging longtime advisers aside or dismissing aides outright when things threatened to run off the tracks. As a result, while some stalwarts from Mr. Kerry's first campaign have stuck with him since 1972, the senior staff of his campaign includes few people who call themselves his friends or are personally loyal to him.
And there is a hint of the Jimmy Carter micromanager management style in Kerry's approach:
Mr. Kerry's circle is as wide and changing as Mr. Bush's is constricted and consistent. He is always calling one more friend, and the campaign lineup has shifted so often that rumors of staff changes have become part of the daily gallows humor at Kerry headquarters on McPherson Square in downtown Washington.Instead of delegating authority to a single adviser, Mr. Kerry relies on different people for different advice. And, he made a point of saying in the interview, none of them have too much authority. "I am always in charge," he said.
And though he is constantly seeking out advice, Kerry does not always follow it:
For all his eagerness to seek advice, Mr. Kerry does not always take it.
After he delivered a 35-minute speech at the University of Pittsburgh last spring, Gov. Edward G. Rendell of Pennsylvania gently tried to reinforce a message Mr. Kerry's aides had been struggling to impart."I said I thought it was a little long for an outdoor speech," Mr. Rendell recalled. "My rule of thumb for an outdoor speech is 15 to 20 minutes."
That night at the Philadelphia Convention Center, Mr. Rendell prepped Mr. Kerry by saying the crowd was full of party veterans and urging him to keep his speech short. He talked for 32 minutes.
When Mr. Kerry arrived in Allentown early this month for a rally at the fairgrounds, Mr. Rendell did not even mention his 20-minute outdoor rule. "I've given up," Mr. Rendell said. "He listens sometimes, and he doesn't listen sometimes."
Mr. Kerry spoke for 38 minutes.
Posted by Tom at 6:23 AM
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September 26, 2004
Playing both sides against the middle
This Washington Post story reports on Washington lobbyist Jack Abramoff and public relations consultant Michael Scanlon's efforts in 2002 working with conservative religious activist Ralph Reed to help the state of Texas shut down an Indian tribe's El Paso casino, and then Messrs. Abramoff and Scanlon's incredible activities in persuading the tribe to pay $4.2 million to try to get Congress to reopen it once it had been closed. In the end, Messrs. Abramoff and Scanlon failed to get the casino reopened. Here is an earlier post from Charles Kuffner on the early stages of the investigation into the matter.
H'mm, let's see now. Work the political process to get a casino closed so that you can then work the political process to get the casino reopened. Not bad work if you can get it.
Posted by Tom at 7:16 AM
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September 22, 2004
Three DeLay aides indicted in Austin
A Travis County, Texas grand jury indicted three people closely linked to Houston-based U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay Tuesday along on charges of illegally using corporate money to help Republican Texas House candidates during the 2002.
The indictments focused on the DeLay-founded Texans for a Republican Majority Political Action Committee, which raised corporate money to help Republicans take control of the Texas House for the first time since Reconstruction. TRMPAC chief John Colyandro, fund-raiser Warren RoBold and DeLay political director Jim Ellis were the DeLay aides that were indicted. Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle, who is a Democrat, said the investigation continues into possible campaign-finance violations by TRMPAC, the Texas Association of Business and the election of GOP Texas Speaker Tom Craddick of Midland. This was the third grand jury to hear the investigation and Earle disclosed the investigation will continue when a new grand jury is impaneled in October. He would not say whether DeLay is a target of the investigation.
TRMPAC raised almost $600,000 from corporations, which usually contributed at fund-raisers in which DeLay was the featured guest. The money was used to pay for additional fund-raising and political activity to help Republican candidates win about 20 House seats. Texas Ethics Commission opinions have said corporate money can be used only to pay a political committee's basic expenses, such as rent and utilities. However, TRMPAC supporters contend that the state law is trumped by the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution and applicable federal law at the time.
Posted by Tom at 6:23 AM
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September 17, 2004
San Diego public financing emulates Enron
This post from earlier this year pointed out the similarity between the federal government's accounting and financing of Medicare and Social Security benefits with Enron's accounting and financing of its infamous off-balance sheet partnerships.
This NY Times article reports that San Diego's municipal government is now facing a municipal reorganization under chapter 9 of the Bankruptcy Code because of its dubious accounting and financing of public pension fund earnings.
Consistent with the government's prosecution of former Enron executives involved in such questionable accounting and financing schemes, can we now expect criminal prosecutions of San Diego public officials who condoned the same type of accounting and financing practices that have caused San Diego's current dance with municipal insolvency?
Posted by Tom at 8:33 AM
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September 11, 2004
The Massachurian Candidate
Professor Ribstein is already a formidable business law and business movie expert. However, from this post, it appears that he may also be a budding Hollywood screenwriter.
Posted by Tom at 8:56 AM
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September 8, 2004
The prospects for real Social Security reform
In his weekly Business World column today, the Wall Street Journal's ($) Holman Jenkins, Jr. lays out the case that a second Bush Administration may be the one time that realistic reform of Social Security could actually take place:
People become inordinate risktakers to protect something they have. Once voters figure out the true extent of the entitlement morass, even those summering Nantucket editors might be expected to rush to the barricades and, whatever their cultural affinity, cast their vote for Mr. Bush for the simple reason that entitlement reform is inescapably a second-term activity.. . . President John Kerry would be sure to lay back too while re-election sugarplums still danced in his head, and who'd want to bet on him to beat the Democratic curse and win a second term? If not, nine years would be the soonest reform could start, by which time another $18 trillion in unfunded retirement obligations would have piled up.
Nope, it's Mr. Bush or bust. Congress is no help. Wonder why, in the dog days of August, GOP House Speaker Denny Hastert became a sudden convert to a flat tax? He was hoping to divert the Bush White House's attention from Social Security reform. His members, facing re-election every two years, still believe that Social Security is an untouchable "third rail," notwithstanding a few GOP thrillseekers who've lately done handsprings on the third rail and lived to tell the tale.
Democrats, of course, can be expected to resist ferociously, and for reasons going beyond mere sentimental attachment to the FDR/LBJ welfare state. Anything that turns the adult population into wealth holders would change voting behavior forever, and not to Terry McAuliffe's advantage.
All this makes Mr. Bush's apparent willingness to tackle entitlements a once-in-a-generation planetary alignment, not to be passed up by a society that cares about its future.
Mr. Jenkins goes on to explain the "creative" accounting that the federal government engages in to mask the true cost of its Social Security obligations:
[A]dvocates need to get busy helping the public master a peculiarity of federal accounting. To wit, promises made to bondholders show up in the national debt. Promises made to future retirees don't.Thus the officially recognized national debt is about $3.9 trillion, while the unfunded Social Security obligation alone represents an IOU of $10 trillion in present value. Throw Medicare onto the bonfire and that's another $62 trillion.
Keep in mind these figures represent only the "unfunded" portion, not the part covered by monies already credited to notional federal trust funds or to be collected in payroll taxes from now till eternity. It would take $3.9 trillion today to retire the visible national debt, and $72 trillion today to pay off unfunded promises to retirees. Yet only the first debt is reported to voters. That's the kind of accounting "oversight" that, in the private sector, leads straight to a cellblock.
That makes Enron's shifting of a mere $40 billion of debt into off balance sheet transactions look rather trivial, doesn't it? And why are these huge hidden costs important to understand? Mr. Jenkins answers:
Because suddenly the $1 trillion in "transition costs" to finance the creation of the Bush-touted private retirement accounts for younger workers doesn't seem so outlandish compared to the real federal debt, visible and invisible.
Interestingly, Mr. Jenkins then focuses on the main impediment to true Social Security reform -- risk aversion:
Unreasoning risk aversion is a hallmark of the human mind, and Democrats and their pet economists are already doing all they can to encourage the stand-pattism of certain voting blocs, especially single women and oldsters. John Kerry never tires of frightening these voters with the Satans of Wall Street and Ken Lay. He says instead a "tweak here, tweak there" will tide Social Security over without any "risky" reforms.Here we must summon the heavy guns of "behavioral economics," whose adherents have been winning Nobel Prizes lately. Their most firmly established insight is that real people, as opposed to the rational maximizers of the economic texts, suffer from an excess of caution. "Prospect theory," pioneered by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, shows that people overvalue their fear of loss and undervalue the prospect of gain, leaving themselves worse off than they would be if they were willing to entertain reasonable risks.
I agree with Mr. Jenkins that real Social Security reform is more likely in a second Bush Administration than in a Kerry Administration. But given the Bush Administration's aversion to balanced policy analysis, I question whether there is really much of a prospect for reform even in a second Bush Administration. I guess we can dream, can't we?
Posted by Tom at 5:55 AM
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September 4, 2004
Observations on Bush's convention speech
Arnold Kling has this excellent analysis of President Bush's acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention.
And Professor Maule has some insightful comments on the President's proposals regarding income tax simplification.
Sigh.
Posted by Tom at 1:15 PM
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September 1, 2004
What top Democrats are saying about Kerry
Al Hunt is executive Washington editor for The Wall Street Journal ($). His WSJ responsibilities include writing the weekly editorial page column, "Politics and People," and directing the paper's political polls.
This week, Mr. Hunt is writing his column from the Republican Party Convention in New York, but his subject in today's column is the coming shakeup in the John Kerry's campaign staff resulting from President Bush's recent run-up in the polls. Mr. Hunt describes what Mr. Kerry's supporters are saying about his management style:
The Kerry campaign, like most, ultimately reflects the candidate. The cautious indecisiveness and occasional vacillations have become Kerry trademarks.Leading Democrats describe a command structure often frozen -- or at least tempered -- by too many chefs, a too-heavy reliance on polls or focus groups and an aversion to risks. As a result, the message often is muddled and the reaction to hard-hitting attacks from Republicans often is slow and unconvincing.
With friends like these . . .
Posted by Tom at 5:31 AM
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August 28, 2004
VDH on John Kerry's military service
This interesting Victor Davis Hanson column on John Kerry's military service is respectful and insightful, and Professor Hanson's conclusion is absolutely brilliant:
So I conclude with empathy for John Kerry, whom I appreciate as a veteran who served his country ? even if I would not now vote for him. He should have been aware of the god Nemesis. Still, in a spirit of magnanimity and appreciation for his months on a boat in a very inhospitable landscape, Americans perhaps should remember the words of Pericles, as recorded by Thucydides shortly after the outbreak of the Peloponnesian War: "For there is justice in the claim that steadfastness in his country's battles should be as a cloak to cover a man's other imperfections; since the good action has blotted out the bad, and his merit as a citizen more than outweighed his demerits as an individual."
Posted by Tom at 12:29 PM
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The silent supporter of the Texas GOP
This Austin American-Statesman (free online subscription required) article provides a profile on Bob Perry, the Houston-based homebuilder who has become the largest contributor to Texas Republican political candidates.
On one hand, Mr. Perry is reported to be an unassuming contributor:
At the state level, several office-holders said Perry never asks anything of them.Patterson was the state senator for Perry's district before becoming land commissioner.
"In 20 years, he's never asked me for anything," Patterson said. "When I was in the Senate, there were issues he was interested in, but he never called up and said, 'Can you help me on this?' "
Agriculture Commissioner Susan Combs agrees.
"He doesn't lobby me," she said. "I lobby him. I know he has contacts."
She said she asked his advice on how to encourage home construction in rural areas. He also organized a meeting of Houston ministers in minority communities when she wanted to talk about schoolchildren's diets.
When Bob Deuell was running against a Democratic incumbent for a Dallas-area Senate seat, he got help from Perry before ever meeting him.
"I just started getting these checks from him," Deuell recalls. When Deuell phoned to thank Perry and ask for a meeting, Perry said there was no need. "I know who you are," Deuell remembers Perry telling him.
By Election Day, the checks totaled more than $250,000.
On the other hand, Mr. Perry has received some valuable business consideration for his hefty political contributions:
Perry got plenty for the $3.8 million he spent on the 2002 elections.In 2003, a Republican-controlled Legislature curbed the ability of consumers to file lawsuits against businesses.
Krugh, the lawyer for Perry Homes, also helped write legislation that created the Texas Residential Construction Commission, a new state agency to create rules for dispute resolution between home builders and consumers. The governor then appointed Krugh to the nine-member commission.
Opponents see the new agency as a hurdle to consumers suing home builders; the builders defend it as a quicker, fairer way to resolve disputes.
"Bob Perry was highly rewarded with his own state agency," said Rep. Garnet Coleman, D-Houston. "In Texas you can buy your own state agency, then regulate yourself."
Doesn't Governor Perry and the Texas Republican Party stand for less governmental regulation? Or is it that they stand for less governmental regulation except in those cases where more regulation will benefit their largest contributor?
Posted by Tom at 8:22 AM
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August 27, 2004
The latest twist in the wild world of Equatorial Guinea
As noted in this earlier post, Equatorial Guinea is one fascinating place. Now, this NY Times article reports on the latest bizarre development in the affairs of this little African oil enclave. Here are all earlier posts on Equatorial Guinea.
With true stories like these, who needs novels?
Posted by Tom at 6:04 AM
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John O'Neill defends the Swift Boat Vets
In case you have tuning out the world over the past month or so, you already know that prominent Houston attorney John O'Neill is the author of the best-selling book "Unfit for Command" and has been at the forefront of the group known as the Swift Boat Veterans that has been waging a public campaign against John Kerry's candidacy for President. In this Wall Street Journal ($) op-ed today in which he defends the SWV's right to campaign against Mr. Kerry. First Mr. O'Neill debunks the notion that the SBV's are a mouthpiece for the Bush-Cheney campaign:
Are we controlled by the Bush-Cheney campaign? Absolutely not. The Swift boat veterans who joined our group come in all political flavors: independents, Republicans, Democrats, and other more subtle variations. Had another person been the presidential candidate of the Democrats, our group never would have formed. Had Mr. Kerry been the Republican candidate, each of us would still be here.We do not take direction from the White House or the president's re-election committee, and our efforts would continue even if President Bush were to ask us directly to stop.
Then, Mr. O'Neill explains simply why the SBV's have come forward:
Why have we come forward? As explained in "Unfit For Command," Mr. Kerry grossly exaggerated and lied about his abbreviated four-month tour in Vietnam. He disgraced all legitimate Vietnam War heroes when he falsely testified to Congress that we were war criminals, daily engaged in atrocities that had the full approval of all levels in the chain of command. So, once Mr. Kerry decided to apply for the commander in chief's job with a war-hero resumé, we felt compelled to come forward to explain why he is "unfit for command."
And, in this related WSJ op-ed, the WSJ's Daniel Henninger shakes his head at the way Mr. Kerry is responding to the SBV's:
How can this be happening? Why didn't John Kerry months back -- if not years -- find some gracious way to make peace with the John O'Neills of the world? Why didn't one wise head among the Democrats point out the obvious difficulties of the Kerry candidacy once past the party's primary voters? This is a man who would be running as both a hero of Vietnam and a famous accuser of the war's heroes. This is an election, not a Shakespearean tragedy. How come John Kerry never worked out, before the final leg of his long odyssey, a let-bygones statement, admitting the hyperbole (at the least) of his accusations of atrocity before Congress in 1971, honoring the service of colleagues who never felt obliged to apologize for Vietnam, but reserving his right to oppose that troubled war?
As I noted in this earlier blog post on Mr. O'Neill from several months ago, John is a highly regarded attorney in Houston legal circles and independent politically. The Kerry campaign's attempts to discredit him as a Republican shill are doomed to failure.
John Kerry has recently admitted that he used poor judgment and engaged in youthful indiscretion in condemning many of his co-Vietnam veterans publicly during the early 1970's. Was that earlier criticism truly a product of youthful indiscretion? Or is Mr. Kerry's response to serious critics such as John O'Neill prove that he simply has poor judgment and that he has not really changed from his earlier indiscretion?
By the way, before commenting, please know that I am also independent politically.
Posted by Tom at 5:27 AM
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August 25, 2004
The folly of campaign finance "reform"
Washington Post columnist George Will's column today is an outstanding analysis of the inane implications of the McCain-Feingold campaign finance "reform" legislation. Mr. Will relates the absurd suppression of free speech -- the suppression of a dealership's car ads that use the dealership's name, which happens to be the same as a Republican candidate for senator -- and observes the following:
A core principle of an open society is that, in the words of Thomas Hobbes, liberties "depend on the silence of the law" -- what is not forbidden is permitted. However, because of the com- plexities and vagaries of McCain-Feingold and the rest of the government's metastasizing regulations of political activity, prudent participants in poli- tics must assume that everything is forbidden until the government gives permission.
The Supreme Court's affirmation of McCain-Feingold was a watershed in the nation's constitutional experience. The First Amendment will be forever open to statutory dilution, at least as it pertains to political speech. (The court has placed pornography essentially beyond the reach of regulation.) Henceforth, the guarantee of freedom of political speech is being steadily circum- scribed in the name of political hygiene. The right of free expression can be trumped by the supposed imperative of combating "corruption" or "the appearance" thereof, which is to say, where probably no actual corruption exists.Common Cause's desire to regulate car ads has no conceivable connection to preventing corruption. But the "corruption" rationale merely disguises the reformers' real agenda, which is to extend government supervision of speech whenever they think extension serves their partisan advantage.
And in deriding President Bush's late criticism yesterday of the use of section "527" organization funding for political ads, this Wall Street Journal ($) editorial reminds us that McCain-Feingold is a product of bipartisan misjudgments:
One reason 527s are so prominent now is because Mr. Bush made the mistake of signing the McCain-Feingold campaign finance "reform" that barred big donations to political parties. So 527s have become the new alternative vehicle that Americans passionate about politics are using to exercise their First Amendment rights to free speech. The difference is that now the campaigns can't control how that money is spent.If Mr. Bush wanted the two major parties to better control their campaign messages, he could have vetoed McCain-Feingold. Some of us urged him to do so, but his political advisers whispered not to worry, the Supreme Court will take care of it. Well, Sandra Day O'Connor failed too, but in any event since when are Presidents supposed to pass the buck to judges?
In our view, this was among the worst moments of Mr. Bush's term. Having helped to midwife the current campaign-finance system, it ill behooves him to blame others for the way this world works.
Posted by Tom at 7:44 AM
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August 16, 2004
Kerry's spending proposals
This post from a few days ago addressed the Bush Administration's rather lackluster record in regard to fiscal policy.
Now, American Enterprise Institute fellows Eric M. Engen and Kevin A. Hassett provide this analysis of John Kerry's spending promises combed from his public statements, policy memos, and other information provided by his campaign staff. the Kerry spending promises add up to an extraordinary amount of money. Their best estimate is that Kerry's proposals would increase federal spending $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion over the next ten years. Mr. Hassett comments:
[R]oughly half of this additional spending is attributable to Senator Kerry's health care proposals that would add more than $900 billion in federal outlays. Education expenditure accounts for nearly one quarter of Kerry's new spending, with almost $500 billion added over ten years. A $400 billion expansion of military personnel and benefits for veterans comprises most of the remainder of Kerry's spending plans, with the balance distributed among numerous social programs and increases in international aid.
Hat tip to the Marginal Revolution for the link to this foreboding analysis.
Posted by Tom at 6:51 AM
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August 14, 2004
VDH on the Politics of bashing
Victor Davis Hanson's NRO column this week picks up on the phenomenom that Professor Ribstein noted some time ago -- the almost pathological hatred of President Bush exhibited by some on the political left. The entire column is well worth reading, but Professor Hanson's conclusion is particularly insightful and also cautionary:
In short, the Left hates George W. Bush for who he is rather than what he does. Southern conservatism, evangelical Christianity, a black-and-white worldview, and a wealthy man's disdain for elite culture ? none by itself earns hatred, of course, but each is a force multiplier of the other and so helps explain the evolution of disagreement into pathological venom.September 11 cooled the furor of these aristocratic critics, but Iraq re-ignited it. Not voting for George Bush is, of course understandable and millions in fact will do precisely that. But for those haters who demonize the man, their knee-jerk disgust tells us far more about their own shallow characters than it does anything about our wartime president.
And there is a great danger in all these manifestations of pure hatred. We are in a war. And in these tumultuous days, the Left's unhinged odium will resonate with and embolden not only our enemies abroad, but also the deranged, dangerous folk here at home.
Posted by Tom at 11:16 AM
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The next big threat - EMP Blast
This Opinion Journal piece discusses the likely outcome of an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) attack on the United States, which Department Department officials have been being discussing just below the public surface for the past few years. Not a pretty prospect.
Posted by Tom at 10:50 AM
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August 12, 2004
Fiddling while Rome burns
Peter G. Peterson is founder of the Blackstone Group and founding president of The Concord Coalition, which is a bi-partisan citizen's group organized in 1992 for the purpose of building a constituency of fiscal responsibility.
In this New York Times book review, Financial Times and Weely Standard columnist Christopher Caldwell reviews Mr. Peterson's new book entitled "Running on Empty" in which Mr. Peterson lays out the case that politicians in both political parties have abandoned any pretense of fashioning responsible fiscal policy. That has resulted in the highly-leveraged state of various government entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare:
How we reached this pass can be stated simply: Republicans undertax, while Democrats overspend. For decades, Mr. Peterson writes, Democrats ''labored patiently to purge America of its traditional aversion to deficits," bribing voters with jobs and social-service programs that the country could not afford. Starting with the Emergency Recovery Tax Act of 1981, though, Republicans have learned that tax cuts and write-offs can be used as bribes in exactly the same way. Dependent on deficit spending, both parties have blown through every institutional constraint erected against reckless tax cuts and benefit expansions, from the Gramm-Rudman deficit ceilings of the 1980's to the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990. And they have blown the Social Security-tax surpluses meant to offset predictable future shortfalls.
And although he blames both political parties for this fiscal debacle, Mr. Peterson takes dead aim at the Bush Administration:
While Mr. Peterson blames both parties for conniving against fiscal common sense, he puts the present administration in a class of its own. George W. Bush has discarded traditional Republican qualms against big government, replacing the old Democratic model of tax-and-spend with his own model of borrow-and-spend. Thanks to three unaffordable tax cuts and an unfinanced Medicare drug benefit that will eventually cost $2 trillion a decade, Mr. Peterson writes, ''this administration and the Republican Congress have presided over the biggest, most reckless deterioration of America's finances in history."
But even more interesting is why politicians continue to ignore these clear warning signs of fiscal disaster? Mr. Peterson has a theory:
''[O]ur national leaders are providing the American people with precisely what they want." Debt, he notes, is particularly alluring in periods of partisan intransigence. If the two sides cannot compromise on priorities, each can take what it wants while dumping the bill on future generations. Americans used to understand this temptation and flee it. Thomas Jefferson warned: ''To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our election between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude."
Mr. Peterson's book highlights the watershed nature of this year's Presidential election. The Bush Administration has done precious little during its first four years to merit the support of voters who yearn for prudent fiscal reform of government entitlement programs. On the other hand, the Democrats have nominated a candidate with an extraordinarily weak record on the same issues.
Is Peterson correct that most voters simply do not care anymore about fiscal responsibility of government? Or has the public simply given in to the dark side of using debt to pay for our government's lack of fiscal responsibility? Interesting questions with no easy answers.
And to get a good idea of just how far the Bush Administration has strayed from sound economic policy, Tyler Cowen over at Marginal Revolution outlines what he believes the Bush Administration's economic platform should be.
Posted by Tom at 6:58 AM
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August 11, 2004
Where have all the fiscal conservatives gone?
Before you dismiss this season's Presidential race as an easy one between a profligate Democrat and a fiscally-restrained Republican, review this W. James Antle III piece from the The Foundation for Economic Education:
. . .over the past few years the Republicans have enjoyed unified control over both houses of Congress and the White House. Instead of a renaissance of spending restraint and economic freedom, government has grown at a prodigious clip.According to the Cato Institute, total federal outlays are scheduled to rise by 29 percent between 2001 and 2005 while discretionary nondefense spending in particular will climb 36 percent over this same period. During President Bush's first term, we have seen three of the five largest annual increases in real discretionary spending of the past 40 years.
This is not to suggest that Mr. Kerry would enact policies to reduce this trend if he is elected President. However, it is important to remember when you hear the inevitable drumbeat from the Republicans that Mr. Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress are acting in a fiscally responsible manner.
Hat tip to the good folks at Southern Appeal for the link to this article.
Posted by Tom at 8:13 AM
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August 9, 2004
It's going to be close, folks
Pejman Yousefzadeh, who was noted in this earlier post regarding his work on the benefits of futures markets in predicting terrorist attacks, has this interesting analysis of how the Electoral College vote is stacking up in regard to the upcoming Presidential election based on the current status of future markets. Check it out.
Posted by Tom at 6:28 AM
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August 6, 2004
More on tax simplification
Bob Formaini is a Senior Economist and Public Policy Advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. In this TCS Central column, Mr. Formaini addresses a fundamental absurdity of the income tax system in the United States:
You might be wondering why, this year, my return has become something that, as I gaze on its small novel length, reads as if it were written in some foreign language. It's simple. My wife and I are dealing with the death of her mom and an inheritance that involves two trusts, dozens of stocks, and three limited partnerships. I can understand the W2s okay. But the heart of my return is completely alien to me. I have no idea what it says or whether it is accurate. We have placed our fate in the hands of a very competent tax accountant, but even though his name is on the return along with ours, I remain somewhat uneasy signing a document that I can't understand.
Then, Mr. Formaini addresses the real heart of the matter:
There is something wrong with a tax code that requires so much paperwork, so many hours of preparation, so much frustration with the endless record keeping that the law demands. And that's just for individuals. The burdens on business are staggering. Even so, our return no doubt is, for our accountant, a baby sort of thing. I doubt that he even worked up a mild sweat. Compared with the returns he does for a living -- a living created by Congress and their inability to have a simple tax code and for which I certainly do not begrudge him -- our return is probably a laugher. And yet, to a guy like me with four college degrees including a PhD, it might as well be written in Klingonese. I have become, along with most of my fellow citizens, just another helpless dunce who can't deal with the complexities that our wonderful politicians yearly serve up.
Which leads Mr. Formaini to a very provocative thought regarding this ludricrous situation that we have allowed our leaders to place us in:
The upside, assuming there is one, of being a helpless dunce is that one can no longer be held responsible. Unless Congress, "simplifying the tax laws" once more, decides that the old legal doctrine of mens rea is no longer the standard for criminal behavior. If that happens, were all potentially in some very serious trouble.
Amen.
Posted by Tom at 6:39 AM
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August 4, 2004
Lessons from another '04 campaign
Check out this interesting TCS Central piece by San Diego attorney and former Harvard history professor Michael Rosen that compares this year's Presidential campaign with that of 1904. Good stuff.
Posted by Tom at 7:49 AM
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The psychology of leading
The Wall Street Journal's ($) Holman Jenkins weighs in today with this column regarding the ideas regarding the psychology of leading of Stanley Renshon, who is a psychologist and political scientist at the City University of New York Graduate Center.
Mr. Renshon has written a new book set for publication in September called "In His Father's Shadow," in which Mr. Renshon addresses George W Bush's emergence from an "erratic commitment to conventional success" in early adulthood to an "embrace of responsibility and sustained success that would have been little expected from his performance until then." Mr. Renshon is also the author of a number of other works on the psychology of American presidents, inlcuding the award-winning account of Bill Clinton's first term, "High Hopes."
Mr. Renshon first notes that the public's pre-election evaluation of Mr. Bush's leadership style overlooked an important part of his personality. As Mr. Jenkins notes:
He came to office promising to be a "uniter not a divider"; his reputation in the traditionally weak Texas governor's office was that of a consensus seeker. Those who expected more of the same in the White House have been pleasantly (or unpleasantly) surprised because, says Mr. Renshon, they overlooked an aspect of Mr. Bush's character: His rare capacity to "stand apart," even from friends and supporters, and withstand abuse and criticism when he believes a policy course is the right one.
He also ended up with a political character noticeably different from that of his loved and admired papa, who famously derided the "vision thing" and sought compromise with every critic. "Mr. Bush is a president who is comfortable taking controversial stands and sticking with them," Mr. Renshon writes. "He is able to do so through sometimes severe storms of public anxiety and critics' cries to change course."
Using Mr. Renshon's analysis, Mr. Jenkins speculates on the probable course of Mr. Kerry's leadership style if elected president:
GOP harping on Mr. Kerry's "liberal" record would seem to imply he has philosophical commitments that he's prepared to sacrifice for. The label "Massachusetts liberal" perhaps points closer to the truth. Unlike Mr. Bush, he built his life and self-image around elective office, and in a state and party where survival required adhering to certain unfashionable and arguably obsolescing norms. He's risk averse where Mr. Bush is a risk taker.His leadership style is strongly at odds with Mr. Bush's -- and one that Democrats are hoping Americans are in the mood for right now. That's the real message of his constant invoking of Vietnam. That's the real strength of his campaign: I was daring and adventurous then, and had my fill. Witness my career ever since: cautious, "nuanced," utterly lacking in the "go for it" certainty of my opponent.
Contrary to much campaign rhetoric, the difference probably wouldn't be felt in the war on terror, to which both parties are now committed. It's on domestic issues that history has trapped Democrats in the role of reactionary party, reflexively defending a status quo.
On Social Security, Medicare, education, you name it: Republicans at least grapple realistically with the need to reshape these programs to keep them solvent and delivering value in the 21st century. Democrats don't. A lot of voters would be pleasantly (or unpleasantly) surprised by Mr. Kerry if he turned out to be a politician willing to court controversy and criticism to change that.
I do not agree with Mr. Jenkins' assessment that the Republican Party is "at least grappling" with the issues relating to reshaping the above-cited governmental programs. On the contrary, the only reason that this Presidential race is likely to be a close one is because the electorate senses that this Republican Administration and Republican-controlled Congress have largely failed to take any constructive action in addressing these issues.
Nevertheless, Mr. Jenkins is correct that the success of either a second Bush Administration term or a Kerry Presidency will likely depend on the willingness of the leader to take risks and to adhere to unpopular positions that will lead to a sound goal. Bush has proven that he has the capacity to do that in regard to his foreign policy against the Islamic fascists. Does Kerry have that attribute?
Posted by Tom at 6:58 AM
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July 31, 2004
John Edwards' vision through the prism of John O'Quinn
In this American Spectator piece, New York Sun columnist William Tucker relates to his past interview with famed Houston plaintiffs' attorney John O'Quinn in interpreting fellow trial lawyer and Democratic Party vice-presidential candidate John Edwards' world view:
When it came to defining his core vision, here's what Edwards said:"Tonight, as we celebrate in this hall, somewhere in America, a mother sits at the kitchen table. She can't sleep because she's worried she can't pay her bills. She's working hard trying to pay her rent, trying to feed her kids, but she just can't catch up.It didn't use to be that way in her house. Her husband was called up in the Guard. Now he's been in Iraq for over a year. They thought he was going to come home last month, but now he's got to stay longer.
She thinks she's alone. But tonight in this hall and in your homes, you know what? She's got a lot of friends.
We want her to know that we hear her...
So, when you return home some night, you might pass a mother on her way to work the late shift, you tell her: Hope is on the way."
Let's look at what's going on here. First and foremost, we've got a lonely woman. There's a passing reference to Iraq and her husband, but that's basically to get him out of the house and out of the picture. (Remember, these are the same people who brought you the welfare system, also designed to get men out of the house and out of the picture.)
She has no friends, no relatives, no religion, no community, nothing to rely on. Her husband? Well, he doesn't even seem to write anymore. And so she sits by herself at the kitchen table, waiting for someone to come along.
What a beautiful vision of America -- a nation of lonely, isolated women, in dire need of help, abandoned by everyone, waiting for some handsome trial lawyer to come knocking on their door.
Hope is on the way.
Read the entire piece. Hat tip to Michael over at Southern Appeal for the link.
Posted by Tom at 11:00 AM
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July 27, 2004
The usual government solution
Count the Wall Street Journal's ($) George Melloan as skeptical that the 9/11 Commission's recommendation of a new cabinet department headed by a "National Intelligence Director" is a good idea:
The late William E. Simon, Treasury secretary in the Nixon and Ford administrations, once described to a small group of Journal editors the origin of what would later become the U.S. Department of Energy.As deputy to Treasury Secretary George Shultz in 1973, he had been sitting in for his boss at a Nixon cabinet meeting and offered a report on the energy "crisis." Mr. Nixon chewed on his pencil for a moment and then, inspired by a thought, told Mr. Simon that he was putting him in charge of a White House energy policy office, a job that later earned him the title of "energy czar." In 1977, Congress and Jimmy Carter created a full-blown cabinet-level department to try to deal with the still-unsolved "energy crisis." Today, the DOE has wide-ranging powers and a budget of roughly $20 billion.
The interesting thing about this story is that it was a clumsy attempt to correct a problem the government itself had created. The "energy crisis" had been caused primarily by the price controls President Nixon adopted in 1971 as a response to inflation, also of the government's own making. That's one way government grows, or metastasizes if you will. It adds new functions to try to correct the problems of existing functions. This new cell growth is always popular inside the Beltway, because it creates jobs and opportunities.
Mr. Melloan notes that the Commission's recommendation of bringing all intelligence under one master and coordinating the exchange of information sounds like a good idea on the surface, but is it really?:
A new department, Homeland Security, was created under Secretary Tom Ridge only two years ago. It already has spent $70 billion and wants $40 billion more next fiscal year, notes Forbes magazine. The DHS is hard at work, organizing better security for nuclear plants, arranging point-of-origin certification of shipboard containers, asking banks to monitor transfers from places like Saudi Arabia. But Forbes still rates these risks at the "yellow" level and gives a high-risk "red" to the threat of computer network hacking.
Mr. Melloan then points out that more government bureaucracy may be the problem, not the solution:
It wasn't that the U.S. had no defenses [before the 9/11 attacks]. It has many thousands of law enforcement officers at all levels of government and as many as 20,000 people in the CIA alone. But all of these people, many of them very able, were trapped in a morass of government bureaucracy.
Some of the restrictions are mind-boggling. Most big cities in the U.S. have "sanctuary" ordinances, pressed on them by "civil rights" groups, which prohibit city employees, especially the police, from checking with the Immigration and Naturalization Service on the immigration status of anyone who runs afoul of the law. As a result, thousands of illegal aliens are at large in the U.S. and encounter no trouble with the INS even if they are picked up for theft or drunken driving. And of course, airport screeners, under the same "civil rights" pressures, are barred from "profiling" passengers and thus, in the words of one critic, must accost a "blue haired 70-year-old woman with an aluminum walker" and nine other average travelers for every able-bodied 30-year-old Mideast male.The INS also has little coordination with the overseas consular offices of the State Department, which approve visas for visitors to the U.S. The State bureaucracy is responding to homeland security fears by tightening up on visa grants, but with no evident system for distinguishing between possible terrorists and innocent students, business travelers and the like. The CIA's failure to insert spies into al Qaeda was a major shortcoming. One wonders what it does with its estimated $40 billion budget.
Congress is itself fragmented, politically polarized and mired in the oversight methods of yesteryear, and so is not up to the requirements for legislating a more streamlined and efficient defense against terrorism. For example, Secretary Ridge has had to testify to 80 committees and subcommittees since taking office. What they do with all that duplicative information and how he finds time to do anything else is a mystery.
Posted by Tom at 5:37 AM
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July 26, 2004
More on the politics of bashing
Awhile back, Professor Ribstein and I discussed (here, here. and here) the unique nature of current vitriolic criticism of President Bush.
Today, the always insightful Virginia Postrel weighs in with one possible reason for the intensity of the Bush-bashing:
When I was in New York a few weeks ago, a friend in the magazine business told me he thinks the ferocious Bush hating that he sees in New York is a way of calming the haters' fears of terrorism. It's not rational, but it's psychologically plausible--blame the cause you can control, at least indirectly through elections, rather than the threats you have no control over. I thought of that insight today when I glanced at Maureen Dowd's column and read this sentence, "Maybe it's because George Bush is relaxing at his ranch down there (again) while Osama is planning a big attack up here (again)."That is the voice of a petulant child, angry that she has a tummy ache while Daddy is at work or Mommy is visiting a friend, or the voice of a grouchy wife angry that she has a migraine while her husband is out coaching the kids' baseball team. You're upset that you're in pain (we've all been there), so you get mad at someone whose presence wouldn't make the pain any better.
Professor Ribstein is not buying Ms. Postrel's speculation, and contends that an underlying condescending nature is the root of the Bush bashing.
Posted by Tom at 7:06 AM
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July 24, 2004
Kerry's financial support
This Washington Post article does a good job of analyzing the financial support for John Kerry's Presidential campaign. Mr. Kerry's supporters are made up of several disparate group, which WaPo summarizes as follows:
? Lawyers, especially trial lawyers, are the engine of the Kerry fundraising operation. Lawyers and law firms have given more money to Kerry, $12 million, than any other sector. One out of four of Kerry's big-dollar fundraisers is a lawyer, and one out of 10 is an attorney for plaintiffs in personal injury, medical malpractice or other lawsuits seeking damages.? Much of the seed money for the Kerry presidential campaign was collected through donors to his Senate campaigns, including lobbyists with interests before two of the Senate committees on which Kerry serves: the Finance Committee and the Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee.
? Fueling Kerry's money surge havebeen credit card collections on the Internet, a technique pioneered by his onetime rival Howard Dean in 2003 but used with even greater success this year by the presumptive Democratic nominee. Kerry has been raising more than $10 million a month on the Internet, for a total of more than $65 million, compared with $8.7 million for Bush in the past year, according to officials with both campaigns.
? Kerry appears to have succeeded in creating a new class of donors for the Democratic Party. Dozens of his fundraisers are relative neophytes in big-money politics and have not been active in making their own contributions. A review of federal campaign contributions of the big Kerry fundraisers shows that one-third of them have not made more than $20,000 in campaign contributions since 1990.
? Kerry's donor base is overwhelmingly bicoastal. Almost half of the big-money fundraisers hail from either California or New York. Seventeen of the fundraisers are from Kerry's home of Massachusetts. Kerry has substantially outraised Bush in California and New York, $39.7 million to $28.5 million; Bush has crushed the Democrat in Florida and Texas, $36 million to $8 million.
WaPo also compares the fundraising base of Mr. Kerry with that of President Bush's:
Overall, Kerry's fundraising base is much different from Bush's. Kerry draws heavily on professionals with advanced degrees, academics, scientists and technology workers, in contrast to Bush's strong base in the business community. Bush has close to 100 major fundraisers -- Pioneers or Rangers, as the president's campaign calls them -- from the agribusiness, energy and power, construction, and transportation industries, compared with no more than half a dozen for Kerry.According to PoliticalMoneyLine, five times as many corporate CEOs, presidents and chairmen gave to Bush as Kerry: 17,770 to 3,393. Conversely, the number of professors who gave to Kerry is 11 times the number of those who gave to Bush, 3,508 to 322. Actors split 212 for Kerry, 12 for Bush; authors, 110 to 3; librarians, 223 to 1; journalists, 93 to 1; and social workers, 415 to 32.
Posted by Tom at 2:38 PM
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Tax simplification
James Edward Maule is a professor of tax law at Villonova University School of Law who authors a blog in which he frequently opines on various issues relating to tax policy. Today, the issue is income tax simplification and he is not optimistic about the prospects for reform:
The Democrats are trying to make tax simplification a highlight of their campaign promises. This is an amusing thought, but it?s also frightening because there are people who will believe it.The Democrats, after all, were the pioneers in modern tax hypercomplexity. Beginning with Kennedy?s investment tax credit and magnified by a huge array of other credits, deductions, and exclusions, the tax law was made even more complicated through the enactment of phaseouts, scalebacks, and other hidden tax increases.
Not to be outdone, it didn?t take the Republicans long to get on the special interest complexity tax train. Absurd capital gain rate structures, a new cluster of credits, and all other sorts of finely tailored specially-directed provisions were crammed into an already bloated code. To use an analog from an astrophysics lecture I attended yesterday, the tax universe is expanding at a constant rate and is moving toward increasing disorder. Just like the cosmos.
Professor Maule then evaluates the Kerry Campaign's proposals for tax simplification:
John Kerry?s tax proposals are inconsistent with the notion of tax simplification, so it will be interesting to see how the Democrats reconcile the party?s ?tax simplification? message and Kerry?s proposals. To be fair, Kerry cannot be blamed for all of the tax complexity in the Code or even all of the complexity bestowed on us by the Democrats in Congress. He isn?t even to blame for some of the stuff enacted while he was in the Congress.Nonetheless, why is Kerry willing to make his proposals within the confines of a Republican tax design? The tax on dividends is a fine example. The Republicans create complexity by making most dividends (a selection process that is itself complex) subject to lower tax rates essentially the same as the bizarre rate structure applicable to capital gains. As readers of my blog and listserv posts know, this is an approach wholly inconsistent with fairness, implification, and common sense. Kerry proposes to eliminate this rate twist by restricting it to taxpayers with incomes under $200,000. This creates yet another layer of complexity onto the already complex dividend taxation structure.
I?d be far more impressed if Kerry took the following position: ?Look, folks, dividends are just one form of income. A person with a lot of income, no matter its source, ought to pay tax at a higher rate than someone with much less income. A person with interest income from certificates of deposit is no less entitled to a low rate than is a person with dividend income. In other words, the basic tax rate structures ought to reflect this principle, and favoritism of one sort of income over another is wrong, no matter the income level. To tax a retired person who has no pension and lives on social security and $30,000 of dividend income at a lower rate than her neighbor who has no pension income and lives on social security and $30,000 of interest income is flat out wrong and contrary to all principles of fairness.?
So, why doesn't the Kerry Campaign from addressing this issue in such a common sense manner?:
What stops Kerry (or his advisors) from tackling this head on? Surely it has something to do with trying to make everyone think he or she is better off under Kerry?s proposals (which in fact is not the case). In an election campaign directed pretty much at the 10% of the voters who are ?swing votes? where?s the advantage in Kerry?s existing proposals? It doesn?t make much sense politically. So I?m wondering if in fact the Kerry tax advisors don?t quite know how to cut the Gordian knot of taxation.
Which leads Professor Maule back to where we always seem to be after each election campaign (with the notable exception of the Reagan Administration). Both political parties initially talk about tax simplification, but then promptly ignore the issue while dividing pork to special interests through tax "policy":
So as far as I?m concerned, with the exception of a few individual members of Congress whose voices of common sense are drowned out in a sea of special interest tax pandering, both major parties and both major Presidential candidates don?t earn any points on the tax question.So no matter who wins, the tax law will become even more disordered. Will it end as the astrophysicists predict the cosmos will ?end?? Will the system collapse of its own weight, becoming a black hole that swallows all? Does anyone other than a few ?tax mavens? even understand the seriousness of the problem?
Right now, I?m going to go back to looking in 360 degrees at two shades of blue. I?ll let my brain process tax stuff later.
As an independent voter, one of my greatest disappointments with the Bush Administration and the Republican-controlled Congress is their failure to address and propose enactment of meaningful tax simplification reform. As with reform of America's broken health care finance system, the Republicans talk a good game, but then generally buckle to pressure from special interests that lobby to maintain the status quo. Professor Maule makes a good point that a Kerry Administration likely would not be any better in regard to tax simplification reform. Nevertheless, my sense is that the Republican Party badly underestimates the frustration of independent voters with their inaction on the issues of tax simplification and health care finance reform.
Given this Administration's inaction on these issues, I think it is fair to ask the following question: Are we at a point where only a Democratic Administration initiative on these issues -- modified through responsible Republican Congressional opposition -- is the only (albeit messy) route to meaningful reform legislation?
Posted by Tom at 12:52 PM
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July 22, 2004
The politics of bashing
Professor Ribstein has been noting the increasingly polarized nature of political debate in America, best reflected by the tendency of many critics of President Bush to eschew fair criticism for ad hominem attacks.
Although Professor Ribstein is correct that Bush-bashing is prevalent, I'm not certain that this is all that unusual. American Presidential campaigns have often been ribald affairs in which strident supporters of one candidate have characterized the opposing candidate as evil, immoral, moronic, or worse.
For example, the campaigns immediately after George Washington's terms in office were no picnic, and later, Andrew Jackson's opponents used many of the same tactics that the Bush-bashers use now. Even Abe Lincoln endured a good deal of these types of attacks in the 1864 election, and more recently, Barry Goldwater in 1964 and Richard Nixon in 1972 were often characterized as the epitome of evil by their opponents. Particularly during the 1980 election, opponents of Ronald Reagan often portrayed him as an idiot mouthpiece controlled by others.
However, the WSJ's ($) Alan Murray in his Political Capital column this week may point to the reason that the Bush-bashers are using this particular technique during this Presidential campaign:
To an unprecedented degree, Americans already have decided how they are going to vote in November. Polls differ, but all suggest that between 43% and 45% of voters plan to vote for George W. Bush and won't give any consideration to John Kerry, and an equal percentage plan to vote for Sen. Kerry, and won't give any consideration to President Bush.That leaves just 10% to 15% of voters who say they remain uncertain about how they will vote. And Republican pollster Bill McInturff says his research shows even most of the undecided voters are less malleable than the label indicates. "The polarization is exceptional," says Democratic pollster Peter Hart. "Even the independents break down into pro-Bush and anti-Bush groups." Kerry strategist Mark Mellman goes further: "All the evidence suggests we are fighting over less than 10% of the electorate, and probably less than 6%." Says Mr. McInturff: "I've never seen anything like this in my 25-year career."
Could it be that the Bush-bashers have concluded that their approach is the most effective means by which to persuade a majority of this 10% undecided group? Or is it simply a means by which to maintain the passion of the base of Bush opponents to ensure that base turns out on election day? Or both?
Update: Professor Ribstein notes the difference in the nature of the current Bush bashing with previous President bashing.
Posted by Tom at 6:28 AM
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July 16, 2004
Homeland Security?
If you read nothing else today, read this harrowing account of a family's experience in a recent domestic flight.
Please pass this along the next time you hear someone complain that there is no reason to sacrifice any civil liberties in order to fight the war against the radical Islamic fascists.
Michelle Malkin is running posts on her blog attempting to verify the accuracy of the events described in the account. The skeptics speculate that, if the events happened at all, that the men were either praying or members of a musical group. Which, in my mind, is no justification for allowing such behavior to occur on a commercial airline flight.
Hat tip to Instapundit for the link to this article.
Posted by Tom at 8:54 AM
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July 9, 2004
John Travolta Edwards
Check out Professor Ribstein's insightful observations regarding Hollywood's molding of public perceptions toward trial lawyers and businessmen.
Posted by Tom at 6:10 AM
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June 13, 2004
Bush Administration's record on cutting the bureaucracy
Tyler Cowen posts this analysis over at Marginal Revolutions reflecting that the Bush Administration compares poorly with other administrations of the past 40 years in terms of reducing the amount of major governmental agency or department budgets. As Mr. Cowen notes:
George W. comes in tied for last with Clinton II. This is a highly imperfect proxy, but when you are 0 for 15 it is hard to blame measurement error alone.
As noted in here just the other day in regard to the issue of tax simplification, the Bush Administration's inaction on these types of issues is, in my view, more likely to cause a loss in the upcoming election than anything that is likely to occur in the Middle East.
Posted by Tom at 11:06 AM
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June 12, 2004
Reagan funeral eulogies
The four eulogies that Margaret Thatcher, Brian Mulroney, George H.W. Bush, and George W. Bush gave at Ronald Reagan's funeral service were very good. Here is the text of Lady Thatcher's, Mr. Mulroney's, Mr. Bush41's, and Mr. Bush43's.
Also, Ron Reagan's eulogy for his father at the graveside service was quite good. The text is here.
Finally, this Heritage Foundation mulitmedia tribute to President Reagan is very well done.
Posted by Tom at 10:39 AM
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June 11, 2004
Virgina Postrel on the 1960's and 70's
Virgina Postrel in this post looks back at the 1960's and 70's, and relates those times to Ronald Reagan's election as president. Read it. Virginia hits the nail on the head on this one.
Posted by Tom at 8:27 PM
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2004 Presidential Election Trackers
The LA Times (free online registration requried) has this cool 2004 Presidential Election Map Tracker.
Also, the Wall Street Journal Online Edition ($) continues to provide an excellent overview of the battleground states in the election. Just scroll down to the "Interactive Features" section and click on the "Battleground States" hyperlink.
Posted by Tom at 8:10 AM
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June 9, 2004
William Buckley interviewed about Ronald Reagan
In this interview, William Buckley reminisces about his old friend, Ronald Reagan. The entire interview is well worth reading, and includes the following anecdotes:
Q: How was it when there was disagreement?A: It was sometimes vigorous, but never sundering. For instance, he was opposed to ratifying the Panama Canal treaty, and we debated the subject for two hours on television, each of us with illustrious assistants. We punched each other pretty hard. A couple of months later I was scheduled for dinner at his home in Bel Air. He got me on the telephone: "Drive slowly up the drive, real slow." I did -- and came upon, every 20 yards, huge hand-drawn signs: "WE BUILT IT." "WE PAID FOR IT." "IT'S OURS!"
Q: Did he offer you a job when he became president?
A: Yes/No. I had written him during the campaign that I didn't want a job. He answered back that he was disappointed: "I've had it in mind to appoint you ambassador to Afghanistan." Big joke, the Soviet Union having just taken over there. But in correspondence thereafter he always referred to me as "Mr. Ambassador," and the week before leaving the White House he wrote to commend me on the Soviet withdrawal -- "and you did it," he wrote, "without leaving Kabul for a minute." Good-humored fantasies played long with Ronald Reagan.
Posted by Tom at 7:35 AM
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June 8, 2004
Telegraph Reagan obituary
The London Telegraph's thorough obituary on Ronald Reagan is here.
Also, Lou Cannon, Mr. Reagan's biographer, wrote this measured Washington Post obituary.
Posted by Tom at 9:15 AM
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Ronald Reagan's economic legacy
Jane Galt over at Asymmetrical Information has an intriguing post regarding Ronald Reagan's economic legacy. First, Ms. Galt dispels the myth that Reagan's policies were solely responsible for improving America's economic malaise of the late 1970's:
I think it was Grover Norquist, saying that Reagan was great because when he took office, unemployment was 10% and interest rates were sky-high, and when he left office everything was boom-a-riffic.This is every bit as fine a bit of data mining as Democrats who make similar claims for Clinton -- the economy sucked when he took office, and was booming when he left. When Clinton took office, the economy was already recovering from a recession; when he left, it was sliding into another one. That's luck, not talent. (Rubinomics buffs, peace out. I'll deal with you later.)
Similarly, high unemployment and interest rates under Reagan were not because Democrats Had Been Driving the Economy Into the Ground Until the Grownups Took Over. High inflation was the result of a dozen years of bad fiscal and monetary policy under two Republicans -- Nixon and Ford -- and two Democrats -- Johnson and Carter -- that was brought under control only when Paul Volcker, the Carter-appointed head of the Federal Reserve, jammed interest rates up to national-heart-attack levels and left them there until inflationary expectations were well and truly tamed. Reagan had nothing to do with unemployment and interest rates falling; that was the inevitable result of a drastic monetary tightening finally working its way through the economy.
Ms. Galt also debunks the supply-side economics myth that budget deficits have no effect on interest rates:
While we're here, can we put to bed the oft-quoted supply side factoid that you can tell budget deficits have no effect on interest rates because interest rates fell under Reagan, even though the budget deficit expanded? Interest rates fell because once inflationary expectations were overcome, the natural interest rate for the US was well below the 20% it reached at the start of Reagan's presidency. But they might have fallen even farther without the budget deficits.Then again, they might not. As far as I can tell, there's no evidence that budget deficits have a significant effect on interest rates. One can theorize that it should, and indeed the theories make a great deal of sense. It's just that you can't find any actual good data to support them in the Real World. This is one of the major sources of my skepticism about Rubinomics.
Ms. Galt goes on to opine that the single greatest economic achievement of Reagan's presidency was tax reform, and not so much marginal rate reduction as the simplification of the tax code that was enacted in the Tax Reform Act of 1986. Then, Ms. Galt views Reagan's overall legacy:
Oh, it was not a perfect legacy. It wasn't as sweeping as some people, like, say, me, would have liked; there were a lot of silly deductions left in, like the home mortgage interest deduction. And the Clinton administration and their accomplices in congress did their best to undo his good work, by introducing thousands of new loopholes. Though, recognizing that loopholes are damaging to the economy and the cohesion of civil society, they did at least try to mitigate the damage: they stopped calling them "loopholes" and instead referred to them as "targeted tax cuts".By forcing a showdown with the air traffic controllers union, Reagan helped forestall the sorts of public employee quiet riots common in Europe whenever the government suggests that maybe eight weeks vacation and retirement at 55 are quite generous enough already.
He advanced the deregulation begun under Carter, which wasn't always good for the regulated companies, but was great for those of us who remember the rotary telephones and extortionate long distance rates of Ma Bell.
He helped bring down the Soviet Union. Oh, I agree with liberals that he didn't do it singlehandedly, but hey, Communism and Soviet imperialism really sucked, so isn't advancing its demise by fifteen years a pretty damn worthy accomplishment? Plus he had the guts to tell Gorbachev to tear down the Berlin wall, which was more than any of his predecessors had done.
And he pulled us out of the doldrums of the 1970's. He got the country to stop taking Europe's word for it that we were a bunch of rubes and know-nothings, fit for nothing except Continental security guard.
Plus, he made a bunch of movies. All in all, I think it likely that he'll be remembered alongside Roosevelt as one of the two greatest president's in the twentieth century. And they'll be remembered that way not because of the events they presided over, but because they recognized an evil empire when they saw it, and they led the country into battle against it.
We should all be able to claim so much.
Amen!
Posted by Tom at 8:29 AM
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Ronald Reagan's leadership
Franklin L. Lavin is the U.S. ambassador to Singapore and previously served on President Reagan's White House and National Security Council staff. In this Wall Street Journal ($) Manager's Journal column, Ambassador Lavin provides an interesting insight about President Reagan's leadership skills and tells an even better story about Reagan. First, Mr. Lavin outlines the basis of Reagan's leadership skills:
Don't be afraid of friction. Friction, or even unpopularity, can be the price for trying to change the status quo. If elected leaders view their job as simply finding the center of gravity on every issue, they might retain their popularity -- but all they will have done is encapsulate public opinion, not lead it. On the other hand, if political leaders want to shape a new consensus, they have to risk alienating those who support the current status quo. Reagan knew that his job was not to make everybody like him, but to help move America in the right direction.Focus on a few key goals. For Reagan, his goals were to confront Soviet expansionism, reduce the tax burden and place limits on the size of government. He proved to be highly successful on the first two goals, and only abstractly successful on the latter. The federal government expanded substantially during Reagan's presidency, even if we allow for military growth. But let's not confuse an inability to implement goals with the desirability of the goals. Reagan did change the debate about the nature of government and the open-ended expansion of the welfare state.
Don't confuse expertise with leadership. As a political leader, Reagan was masterful. He combined a clear sense of purpose with natural stagecraft and the charming occasional idiosyncrasy. He also understood that as president, you didn't need to be an expert, you could hire experts, and he did.
Be upbeat. People want to believe in their leadership, believe in their country, and believe in themselves. A president has to paint a picture of a better country and come up with the program to help get us there. There is an old saying in politics. "People don't care what you know until they know that you care."
And then Ambassador Lavin passes along a story that provides a glimpse of Reagan's humanity that helped make him a great leader:
Reagan was in Alabama once and visited a special school for handicapped kids. He offered a few minutes of remarks and took questions from the kids. It was a terrific -- dare I say Reaganesque -- moment, because simply by spending time with these kids he was endowing their experience with a bit more worth.Then came a moment of terror. One of the kids had a severe speech impediment. He asked his question, and no one in the room could understand it. The president asked him if he could repeat it and again no one could understand what was said. The staff froze. The teachers froze. What was to have been an upbeat day was turning into a disaster. Instead of allowing these wonderful kids to forget about their handicap, this kid was going to be reminded of it.
Reagan to the rescue:
"I'm sorry," he said with a smile, "but you know I've got this hearing aid in my ear. Every once in a while the darn thing just conks out on me. And it's just gone dead. Sorry to put you through this again, but I'm going to ask one of my staff people to go over to you so you can tell him directly what your question is. Then he can pass the question back to me."
Rather than make the kid feel small, Reagan brought his own handicap to the forefront.
Posted by Tom at 7:56 AM
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June 6, 2004
Ronald Reagan, R.I.P.
National Review Online has the best group of articles on the late former President.
The Wall Street Journal ($) also has an excellent overview of President Reagan's life and career, and op-eds by former Reagan speechwriters Peggy Noonan and Peter Robinson that provide excellent insights into this American hero.
Brian Leiter has a good summary of contrary views on the Reagan Presidency.
And Jack Balkin has this balanced piece on President Reagan's legacy.
Posted by Tom at 1:16 PM
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Disassembling Dowd
Maureen Dowd is a New York Times columnist who consistently writes below her considerable talent level. In this article, Catherine Seipp, a Los Angeles-based writer, dissects Ms. Dowd's columns from the month of May, and it is not a pretty. I hope someone passes it along to Ms. Dowd's editor. Hat tip to Pejmanesque for the link to this clever piece.
Posted by Tom at 10:38 AM
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June 5, 2004
Why did Tenet resign?
The always entertaining Gordon Prather has a theory.
Posted by Tom at 2:29 PM
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June 4, 2004
VDH on the New Defeatism
One of the most insightful social commentators of our time, Victor Davis Hanson, posts his weekly article on NRO in which he opines on the real problem in the prosecution of the war against the radical Islamic fascists:
Our Real Dilemma. We do have a grave problem in this country, but it is not the plan for Iraq, the neoconservatives, or targeting Saddam. Face it: This present generation of leaders at home would never have made it to Normandy Beach. They would instead have called off the advance to hold hearings on Pearl Harbor, cast around blame for the Japanese internment, sued over the light armor and guns of Sherman tanks, apologized for bombing German civilians, and recalled General Eisenhower to Washington to explain the rough treatment of Axis prisoners.We are becoming a crazed culture of cheap criticism and pious moralizing, and in our self-absorption may well lose what we inherited from a better generation. Our groaning and hissing elite indulges itself, while better but forgotten folks risk their lives on our behalf in pretty horrible places.
As usual, Professor Hanson closes by placing the current troubles in Iraq into perspective:
Historic forces of the ages are in play. If we can just keep our sanity a while longer, accept our undeniable mistakes, learn from them, and press on, Iraq really will emerge as the constitutional antithesis of Saddam Hussein, and that will be a good and noble thing ? impossible without America and its most amazing military.
Posted by Tom at 9:26 AM
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Paul Johnson reflects on D-Day and Iraq
British historian Paul Johnson (author of "Modern Times," "History of the Jews," "History of Christianity," "A History of the American People," and his more recent "Art, A New History," among others) is one of my favorites. In this Wall Street Journal op-ed from several days ago, Mr. Johnson makes the following poignant point about the planning and implementation of the D-Day invasion during World War II, and relates it to the Allies' current situation in Iraq:
The history of D-Day, and the fortnight that followed, showed the value of meticulous preparations, rehearsals, elaborate testing of every kind of equipment, and the study of logistics. Having secured the bridgehead, the Allied buildup was so rapid that, within a month, the Germans had palpably lost the battle in the West and with it the war. But that did not mean an early Nazi capitulation. Granted the Allied war aim of unconditional surrender, Hitler would clearly fight on to the end, and that meant we had to destroy his large-scale fighting capacity by breaking up all major units and occupying territory. But how, exactly? Montgomery was all for the rapid thrust by armored divisions deep into Germany, backed by overwhelming air-power. "Berlin by Christmas" was one phrase used. This was a fighting soldier's strategy and one which the Germans, in a similar situation, would certainly have used. Indeed, to some extent it was used by Gen. Patton and his armor. But it was risky. The faster the spearhead moved, the more extended its lines of communication became and the more likely it was that the Germans would be able to mount a devastating lateral attack which might sever the advanced armored units from their tail.In the end, Eisenhower decided it was too risky and overruled Montgomery's enthusiasm. Instead, a "broad front" strategy was adopted, the Allies advancing slowly, steady and always as a continuous mass, forward units never out of touch with their companions to left or right. This virtually ruled out the possibility of German counterattack breaking right through the front and nipping off a spearhead. It was the safe approach, and typical of Eisenhower's minimum-risk attitude to warfare.
But of course such an approach involved penalties. It allowed the Germans to keep their line, to regroup and reinforce, and to maintain morale. Not until the very last weeks of the war did their front collapse, and individual units begin to surrender freely. Moreover, the political consequences were enormous. Instead of the war ending in autumn or early winter 1944, it lasted until the end of April 1945. Instead of the U.S. and Britain occupying Berlin and most of central Europe, it left these spoils to the Russians. The broad-front policy set the stage for 40 years of Cold War. Indeed, had it not been for the firmness of President Truman in reversing Roosevelt's policy of appeasing Stalin, it is quite possible that Western Europe too might have fallen victim to communism, and that the frontiers of Stalin's empire would only have ended at the English Channel.
These reflections of D-Day and its aftermath remind us that military decisions can never be entirely separated from their political consequences. Geopolitics is like a game of chess: You have to think a dozen moves ahead. This is as true today as in 1944-45. When President Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair decided to destroy Saddam Hussein's military power, they took a risk that was abundantly justified both geopolitically and morally. But they paid insufficient attention to the possible political consequences.
Unlike Montgomery in 1944, who never underestimated the German genius for counterattack, and made provision against it, the allies this time did not study and prepare for the peculiar Arab genius for counterattack, which is to carry out prolonged and vicious guerilla warfare, completely disregarding human life, including their own. Moreover they did not study and prepare for the difficulties of meeting this form of counterattack against the political background of a free society at home, reacting nightly to what it sees on TV, and reading highly critical reports from the front written by journalists who have their own opinions and agendas and feel under no obligation to pursue the war (and peace) aims of the allied commanders. Both Mr. Bush and Mr. Blair are currently suffering from their lack of provision and foresight.
Given patience and determination, all will be well in time: Democracy and the rule of law will grow in the Middle East, and the roots of terrorism will be destroyed. But we are learning, once again, that the lessons history has to teach are inexhaustible and that statesmen should never plunge into the future, as we did in Iraq, without first examining what guidance the past could supply.
Posted by Tom at 8:29 AM
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May 30, 2004
Archibald Cox dies
Here is the NY Times obituary on Archibald Cox, the Harvard Law School constitutional law professor who became famous as the special prosecutor who investigated the Watergate scandal during the second Administration of the late president, Richard M. Nixon. President Nixon's firing of Mr. Cox during a crucial phase of the investigation into the Watergate scandal eventually was a galvanizing event that eventually led to Nixon's resignation of the presidency and the granting of a pardon to Nixon by his successor, Gerald R. Ford.
Mr. Cox was a solicitor general of the United States in the Kennedy Administration and a Harvard Law School professor when he took over the the Watergate scandal investigation in May, 1973. He was appointed to that position largely because of his friendship with his former student, then Attorney General Elliot L. Richardson. The appointment of Mr. Cox came on the heels of President Nixon's announcement in late April 1973 of the forced departure from his administration of four top- level appointees after they were swept up in the Watergate affair. The scandals had begun with the June 1972 burglary of the Democratic National Committee's offices in the Watergate office complex during 1972 Presidential election campaign between Nixon and Democratic nominee, George McGovern.
As the special prosecutor, Mr. Cox soon wound up in a constitutional confrontation with the White House. After the discovery of secret tape recordings of Nixon's Oval Office conversations, Mr. Cox subpoenaed those tapes and, when the White House refused to comply with the subpoena under principles of Executive Privilege, Mr. Cox sought to enforce the subpoena through the federal courts and won.
When Nixon resisted the federal courts' orders requiring him to turnover the tapes and Mr. Cox persisted, Nixon ordered Attorney General Richardson to fire Mr. Cox, but Richardson refused as a matter of principle. As a result, Richardson resigned and Nixon then ordered the deputy attorney general, William D. Ruckelshaus, to fire Mr. Cox. Mr. Ruckelshaus refused and was then fired. Finally, Robert H. Bork, the solicitor general, finally complied with Nixon's order to fire Mr. Cox. Many powerful people in the U.S. government never forgave Mr. Bork's compliance with Nixon's order to fire Mr. Cox, and that probably had more to do with Mr. Bork's eventual rejection years later as a Supreme Court Justice than any of his more relevant views on application of constitutional law.
These extraordinary events were eventually dubbed "the Saturday Night Massacre" of the Watergate scandal, and the resulting public outcry against Nixon was the beginning of the end of his Presidency. Nixon eventually appointed famed Houston trial attorney Leon Jaworski to replace Mr. Cox as special prosecutor, and Mr. Jaworski continued Mr. Cox's relentless pursuit of the tapes. Nixon eventually turned them over to Mr. Jaworski, their contents proved Nixon's involvement in the cover up of the Watergate burglary, and Nixon resigned the Presidency in disgrace shortly thereafter.
After his involement in the Watergate affair, Mr. Cox returned to Harvard, where he taught constitutional law and became a professor emeritus in 1984. Rest in peace, Professor Cox.
Posted by Tom at 12:38 PM
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May 26, 2004
WSJ on the Presidential election
The Wall Street Journal ($) is doing a particularly good job in reporting on the polling pertaining to the upcoming Presidential election. This article reports on the WSJ's latest data and analysis. The entire article is highly informative reading, and the following summarizes the WSJ's analysis:
George W. Bush and John Kerry may be speaking to all of America, but their campaign advisers are focusing on a narrower slice of the population and targeting the candidates' messages to voters in states that were decided by a narrow margin in 2000. These battleground states may tip the outcome again in November.To take the pulse of voters in many of these key states, Zogby Interactive, a division of polling and research firm Zogby International, is conducting online polls twice a month through Election Day in 16 states selected by WSJ.com. Participation in the polls is controlled and the results are weighted, Zogby says, to make them representative of what a poll of the overall U.S. voting population would find.
Results of the first poll, conducted May 18-23, show Mr. Kerry leading in 12 of the 16 states in this poll, including five states that Mr. Bush won in 2000. Mr. Bush leads in four states, including one -- Iowa -- that voted Democratic in 2000. The 12 states in which Mr. Kerry leads have a total of 148 votes in the Electoral College, while the four in which Mr. Bush is ahead have 29 electoral votes.
Mr. Bush won eight of these 16 battlegrounds in his 2000 victory, but if the election were to be held tomorrow, it looks unlikely that the president would fare as well. But more than half of the states that Mr. Kerry leads fall within the polls' margins of error. All of the states that Mr. Bush leads are within the margins of error.
In short, although the election is five months away, Mr. Bush is in trouble. However, Mr. Kerry is not a strong candidate and is having difficulty capitalizing on Mr. Bush's problems. Looks like a close race is shaping up. Stay tuned.
Posted by Tom at 9:30 AM
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May 19, 2004
Texas GOP: please read this
From this Dallas Morning News Editorial (free online subscription required):
The GOP Challenge: Can Republicans govern Texas?
With school finance blowing up on the GOP leadership in Austin, you have to wonder if Texas Republicans will learn from history.Back in the 1950s and 1960s, conservative Democrats like Govs. Allan Shivers and John Connally commonly fought with liberal party members. The feuds became so prominent that the disputes left room for the state's infant GOP to quietly but steadily develop. By the start of the 1980s, the Texas GOP was on the rise while the Texas Democratic Party was on its decline.
We point this out because Texas Republicans now are at their own crossroads. They are skirmishing like Democrats of old.
The Legislature's failure to come up with a fix for school funding wasn't because Republicans and Democrats were brawling, although there were conflicts between the parties. The breakdown came because Republicans couldn't agree with Republicans. The GOP controls the governorship, the House and the Senate. And that's where the feuding has mostly taken place over the last month.
Now, some of the fight is about honest disagreements. But the real quarrel is about whether the Legislature should raise business taxes to put more money into Texas schools. Gov. Rick Perry hasn't wanted to do that, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst fortunately is willing, and House Speaker Tom Craddick is somewhere in between.
Republicans need to recognize the state needs a new pool of funds to improve schools. And they need to come to that reality fast.
Since 2002, when Republicans took over all parts of the state's government for the first time in 100-plus years, the Legislature has broken down into bitter fights over the state's budget, congressional redistricting and, now, school funding. If Texas Republicans don't fix this situation, then Texans will have a right to wonder if the GOP knows how to govern.
Republicans may want to check in with the state's Democratic elders on this point, too. They know what it's like for voters to take away their power.
In the meantime, I will not hold my breath waiting for the Texas legislature to begin considering such innovative approaches as are reviewed in this prior post.
Posted by Tom at 9:58 AM
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May 8, 2004
Kerry as a lawyer
Jeffrey Toobin of the New Yorker has written this interesting story on John Kerry's background as a lawyer before his career as a politician. There is nothing earth shattering in the article, but it is nevertheless provides interesting insight into Kerry. As Toobin notes:
John Kerry graduated from Boston College Law School in 1976, when he was thirty-two years old and on the brink of obscurity. His celebrity as the former leader of Vietnam Veterans Against the War was fading. The war was over, and his much heralded testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee was five years in the past. He had entered law school after losing a congressional election in 1972, a race he was widely expected to win. A story about him in the Boston Globe during this time ran under the headline ?once a hot political property.?Kerry practiced law for six years. During that period, he began inching back into public view in Massachusetts, rebuilding a reputation both for aggressive investigation and for showmanship which he still enjoys today. The issues that mattered to him then have dominated his subsequent legislative career, and it is his brief career as a lawyer, more than his record as a protester, that could suggest what kind of President he would make.
And somewhat surprisingly, Kerry was not a bleeding heart criminal defense lawyer:
Given his background in the antiwar movement and progressive politics, Kerry might have seemed like a natural for a public defender?s office. ?That?s a stereotype of the worst order and a total knee-jerk reaction,? Kerry told me during a recent conversation about his legal career. ?I always had a prosecutor?s mind and a prosecutor?s bent. It was always what I wanted to do, even in law school. There was a rule in Massachusetts that allowed law students to prosecute misdemeanor trials in front of six-person juries, and I got an unbelievable amount of experience before I even graduated.? For a politically ambitious young lawyer like Kerry, especially one who was known only as a protester, it also made sense to earn a law-enforcement credential.
Hat tip to Ernie the Attorney for the link to this piece.
Posted by Tom at 11:53 AM
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May 4, 2004
A question of judgment
John E. O'Neill is a longtime Houston attorney with the firm the local litigation boutique, Clements, O'Neill, Pierce, Wilson and Fulkerson and a leading Swift Boat Veteran. In this Wall Street Journal ($) op-ed, O'Neill lays the wood to John Kerry's judgment regarding his actions after returning from the Vietnam War. O'Neill replaced Kerry as the skipper of the six-man boat, the PCF-94 and, like Kerry, is a decorated veteran of the Vietnam War. The entire op-ed should be read, but here are a few highlights:
Despite our shared experience, I still believe what I believed 33 years ago -- that John Kerry slandered America's military by inventing or repeating grossly exaggerated claims of atrocities and war crimes in order to advance his own political career as an antiwar activist. His misrepresentations played a significant role in creating the negative and false image of Vietnam vets that has persisted for over three decades. * * * John Kennedy's book, "Profiles in Courage," and Dwight Eisenhower's "Crusade in Europe" inspired generations. Not so John Kerry, who has suppressed his book, "The New Soldier," prohibiting its reprinting. There is a clear reason for this. The book repeats John Kerry's insults to the American military, beginning with its front-cover image of the American flag being carried upside down by a band of bearded renegades in uniform -- a clear slap at the brave Marines in their combat gear who raised our flag at Iwo Jima. Allow me the reprint rights to your book, Sen. Kerry, and I will make sure copies of "The New Soldier" are available in bookstores throughout America.
And why should Mr. Kerry's Vietnam experience matter today? Mr. O'Neill responds:
Since the days of the Roman Empire, the concept of military loyalty up and down the chain of command has been indispensable. The commander's loyalty to the troops is the price a commander pays for the loyalty of the troops in return. How can a man be commander in chief who for over 30 years has accused his "Band of Brothers," as well as himself, of being war criminals? On a practical basis, John Kerry's breach of loyalty is a prescription of disaster for our armed forces.John Kerry's recent admissions caused me to realize that I was most likely in Vietnam dodging enemy rockets on the very day he met in Paris with Madame Binh, the representative of the Viet Cong to the Paris Peace Conference. John Kerry returned to the U.S. to become a national spokesperson for the Vietnam Veterans Against the War, a radical fringe of the antiwar movement, an organization set upon propagating the myth of war crimes through demonstrably false assertions. Who was the last American POW to die languishing in a North Vietnamese prison forced to listen to the recorded voice of John Kerry disgracing their service by his dishonest testimony before the Senate?
Mr. O'Neill -- who, like me, is politically independent -- closes with why he is coming forward now:
Since 1971, I have refused many offers from John Kerry's political opponents to speak out against him. My reluctance to become involved once again in politics is outweighed now by my profound conviction that John Kerry is simply not fit to be America's commander in chief. Nobody has recruited me to come forward. My decision is the inevitable result of my own personal beliefs and life experience.Today, America is engaged in a new war, against the militant Islamist terrorists who attacked us on our own soil. Reasonable people may differ about how best to proceed, but I'm sure of one thing -- John Kerry is the wrong man to put in charge.
Probably because I did not serve in the Vietnam War, I am more sympathetic to Mr. Kerry's explanation that his anti-American post-Vietnam activities were largely the product of youthful indiscretion. However, public skepticism of Mr. Kerry's ability to lead the U.S. military remains a huge problem for him in the upcoming Presidential campaign. Mr. Kerry's record as a politician on that issue is clearly more revealing than his youthful indiscretions, but frankly -- unlike President Bush -- his political stances on military issues have generally reinforced the public's impression that Mr. Kerry is not a strong supporter of the U.S. military forces. Unless Mr. Kerry and the Democrats can change that public perception, my sense is that Mr. Kerry will not be able to beat President Bush in what appears to be stacking up as a very close race.
Posted by Tom at 6:54 AM
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April 29, 2004
This fellow should not apply for a job in the Phoenix area
This is dispositive proof that some newspapers confuse poor judgment with First Amendment rights.
Posted by Tom at 9:20 AM
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April 27, 2004
Texas public school finance reform
Marc Levin is associate editor of The Austin Review, a conservative monthly journal, and President of the American Freedom Center. He writes this op-ed today in the Chronicle proposing an alternative to the rather mundane public school finance proposals currently being floated in the special session of the Texas Legislature:
One almost universal assumption in the school finance debate is that everyone must pay the same type of tax. While no tax is pleasant, what if Texans could choose how they want to pay their share of the cost of public education? The Legislature should consider completely replacing the property tax for education with an increased statewide sales tax coupled with an opt-out for Texans who choose to pay a flat income-based assessment instead.Such a system would have many benefits. First, it would allow for the complete elimination of highly unpopular school property taxes, which are subject to the vagaries of the appraisal process. As our society has become increasingly mobile and driven by technology, real property has become a less reliable measure of a person's wealth.
The business property tax for education, which this proposal would also eliminate, is even more antiquated. Today, many highly profitable businesses have little physical property.
Furthermore, to encourage businesses to locate in Texas as opposed to the other 49 states, most economists agree that ideally there should be no state taxes on business. The current business property and franchise taxes, a gross receipts tax, or any other business tax make Texas less attractive for business investment and undermine the competitiveness of Texas businesses in exporting goods and services.
In addition to abolishing the residential and business school property tax, this proposal would also allow for full statewide equity in school funding without recapture. No longer would school districts be dependent on the taxable value of the property within their boundaries.
On the other side of the ledger, such a system would also provide greater revenue stability for the state. The drawback of a sales tax is that revenues can decline in absolute terms during a recession. However, average income tends to increase, or at least remain constant, during all economic periods. Therefore, those who choose an income assessment would provide a buffer that would help even out state revenues over time.
Read the entire op-ed, which is quite well-reasoned and, as a result, probably has a zero chance of being noticed in the current legislative session. I don't know about you, but it seems to me rather pathetic that Texas legislators are considering basing something as important as public school finance on notoriously unreliable revenue generated from taxes on use of slot machines, consumption of cigarettes, and viewing of exotic dancers.
Posted by Tom at 8:51 AM
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Making peace with pot
Eric Schlosser writes this interesting op-ed in the NY Times on the continued high costs associated with the criminalization of marijuana use, in which he observes:
This year the White House's national antidrug media campaign will spend $170 million, working closely with the nonprofit Partnership for a Drug-Free America. The idea of a "drug-free America" may seem appealing. But it's hard to believe that anyone seriously hopes to achieve that goal in a nation where millions of children are routinely given Ritalin, antidepressants are prescribed to cure shyness, and the pharmaceutical industry aggressively promotes pills to help middle-aged men have sex.
Posted by Tom at 4:55 AM
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April 20, 2004
More Shelby Steele on gay marriage
This earlier post reviewed a Shelby Steele op-ed on gay marriage as a civil rights issue. Now, Mr. Steele has posted this additional New Republic Online piece that responds to Andrew Sullivan's criticism of his original piece. This is good and measured writing on a needlessly divisive issue. Review it with pleasure.
Posted by Tom at 9:06 AM
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April 19, 2004
Kerry on Meet the Press
Tim Russert grilled John Kerry yesterday on his prior statements about Vietnam, and Kerry fumbled badly in answering the questions. Here is the transcript of the interview, via Powerline.
Posted by Tom at 8:09 AM
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April 15, 2004
Stone and Castro: aging irrelevances
America's most overrated movie director, Oliver Stone, has interviewed his old pal, Fidel Castro, for yet another mind-numbing documentary. The Miami Herald's Glenn Garvin has written this piece on the latest Stone-Castro lovefest, and he captures the absurdity of the moment wonderfully:
Having revived the Western with Deadwood and the gangster genre with The Sopranos, HBO is taking on science fiction/fantasy. Looking For Fidel, Oliver Stone's latest round of pattycake with Fidel Castro, resembles nothing so much as one of those old the-land-that-time-forgot movies, with a couple of lumbering stop-action dinosaurs wrestling harmlessly in front of a crowd of natives that's trying hard not to look bored while it waits for evolution to take its course.Looking For Fidel came about after Castro cracked down on dissidents last May, just as an earlier Stone documentary, Comandante, was about to debut on HBO. The network, embarrassed to be screening a kissy-face hagiography at the same time Castro was carrying out assembly-line executions and clapping his political opponents in prison by the score, ordered Stone to go back to Cuba and interview Castro about the crackdown.
The result is this collision of two aging irrelevancies, an antiquarian dictator who has already outlived his ideology and a once-talented director whose face is as puffy and dissolute as his films.
Stone occasionally prods Castro with an uncomfortable question about free speech or secret trials. But followups are non-existent, and mostly Stone allows the dictator to stage his own little set pieces for the cameras. In one, Castro generously meets with some accused hijackers, who with straight faces say 30 years in prison would be a generous sentence.
In another, he walks among adoring throngs of Cubans, whose burbling praise for the Revolution was so wildly delusional (they claim, among other things, that Cuba is the only country in the world where blacks are permitted to own businesses) that I had to wonder if they weren't a deliberate attempt at sabotaging the documentary.
At times, it's hard to tell who is less lucid, Stone or Castro.
Stone, halting and distracted, seems to be reciting a list he learned 20 years ago as he ticks off the Latin American countries supposedly less democratic than Cuba -- including Brazil and Chile, both now governed by socialists.
Castro, meanwhile, suffers through some seriously senior moments. What are we to make of this impromptu little speech? ''Today, with a computer and a dozen compact disks, you can hold all the literature ever written,'' he tells Stone. ``So many things have changed. I do not know why the world has been making so much progress to end up in this. I am so sorry for the younger generation.''
Other times, his meaning is all too clear. If Cuba is poor, Castro insists, it's because of the U.S. embargo. If people are so desperate to leave Cuba that they'll fling themselves into the ocean on inner tubes, it's because the United States encourages them. If any Cubans oppose him, it's because they're on the CIA payroll. Anything and everything that's wrong in Cuba can be traced back to a policy made in Washington, never in Havana.
If it were otherwise, Castro swears, he would quit at once: ''If you can prove to me that under the current circumstances in Cuba, that would be the best thing for the country and the most useful thing for this country, I would be willing to step aside.'' Yes, comandante, we have a word for that in English. We call it elections.
Hat tip to Virginia Postrel for the link to this hilarious review.
Posted by Tom at 9:00 PM
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Tax Day thoughts
This Journal Economic Committee report does a good job of concisely explaining the progressive nature of the United States' income tax system. The report contains this classic observation:
Collectively, the bottom 40% of earners thus pays little or nothing in income taxes. (Like all taxpayers, however, they do face the time, frustration, and monetary costs of preparing their taxes and complying with the complex tax code.)
While I have no problem with the progressive nature of the American tax system, the complexity of the system continues to be one of those outrageous aspects of American life that seems impervious to change. The Republicans occasionally talk about tax simplification, but then do nothing meaningful about it. The Democrats don't even talk about it. Granted, the politics of simplifying the American income tax system is fraught with interest group obstacles. However, there are few political initiatives that would do more to improve Americans' perception of their government than income tax simplification.
Meanwhile, Penn psychology professor Jonathon Baron and USC professor Edward J. McCaffery have published "Masking Redistribution (or its Absence)", the abstract of which provides as follows:
Research has shown that people vary widely in their support or opposition to progressive taxation. We argue here that the perception of progressiveness itself is affected by the nature of the tax system and by the way it is framed, or presented. Experiments conducted over the World-Wide Web and using within-subject design demonstrate that subjects suffer from a range of heuristics and biases in understanding and supporting progressive or redistributive taxation. After reviewing some prior results, we report three new studies. Two of them indicate that people do not sufficiently appreciate the reduction of progressiveness that results from the use of tax deductions to partly reimburse private expenditures. The third indicates that people do not fully appreciate the reduction in progressiveness that results from cuts in government services.
Hat tip to the Law and Economics blog for the link to this article.
Posted by Tom at 4:51 AM
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April 14, 2004
Governing by Crisis
The Washington Post's Robert J. Samuelson in this op-ed makes the following interesting observations regarding the way in which our government tends to deal with problems:
One truth is that government often operates by crisis. People do hard things only when forced by events. A superb example is the aging of baby boomers. As is well known, the over-65 population will double between now and 2030. With Social Security, Medicare and other retiree programs representing about two-fifths of the federal budget, this aging threatens huge spending increases, big tax increases, larger deficits, or -- to minimize those problems -- significant cuts in retiree benefits or other spending. Faced with these realities, what have successive presidents and Congresses done? Absolutely nothing. Here's the connection with terrorism: Even when problems are widely understood, pragmatic politicians avoid unpopular measures. In this they usually reflect public opinion. Everyone knows baby boomers will strain future budgets, yet there's no clamor for corrective policies. We lapse into willful ignorance, hoping -- against evidence and logic -- that what we suspect must happen somehow won't. So it was with terrorism, though with more excuses. The facts there weren't well known (the terrorists weren't telling us their plans). Ordinary Americans and foreign policy "experts" alike didn't grasp the threat or what might be done to oppose it. Only Sept. 11 awakened us.Until recently this common-sense appraisal seemed to describe the prevailing views of the public, the media and most politicians. Clarke changed that. The resulting controversy rests on the unstated notion that if the Bush administration had only taken his advice more seriously, it might somehow have prevented Sept. 11. This is a fiction, but it's a fiction that must be maintained, because if it isn't, then Clarke's criticisms -- and their political overtones -- lose much of their practical relevance. So we get Hollywood-on-the-Potomac. Politicians and the media engage in sanctioned make-believe. They splice together memos and meetings and, by silence and innuendo, suggest that Sept. 11 was preventable. Therefore, someone's to blame.
And what does this dilemma in American government portend for the future? Mr. Samuelson is not optimistic:
Whoever wins in November must face the larger dilemma of American democracy. Government can adopt painful policies only with public support. But that materializes only if most Americans believe that the problem being addressed is real and worth the requested sacrifices -- in money, inconvenience or lives. Sadly, what it often takes to convince the public is suffering the very problem we're trying to prevent. The solution to the dilemma proposed sanctimoniously by scholars and pundits is "leadership." Politicians (particularly presidents) should convince the public of the need to act before it's too late.Sounds simple, but it's risky in practice, as Bush has shown. In Iraq, he offered just such leadership. Believing Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction -- but not knowing for certain -- he presented the strongest case possible to the public or (to critics) deliberately overstated the case. Now, he's suffering a backlash because the weapons haven't materialized and the war's aftermath has proved obstinately messy.
Political hazards explain why presidents are usually unwilling to get too far ahead of public opinion or even to lead it. We think we control our destiny when we've often consigned it to chance and crisis. Clarke testified that before Sept. 11, a basic problem in strengthening anti-terrorism programs was that "we were not able to point to -- and I hate to say this -- body bags. You know, unfortunately, this country . . . requires body bags sometimes to make really tough decisions."
Hat tip to Asymmetrical Information for the link to Mr. Samuelson's piece. Also, check out Ms. Galt's piece on Hindsight Bias on that blog. Very insightful.
Posted by Tom at 6:35 AM
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April 7, 2004
This is pretty lively for Ft. Worth
Posted by Tom at 7:54 AM
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April 6, 2004
Move to the money
This BusinessWeek Online article provides a good summary of the groups and individuals who are throwing big bucks at the Presidential candidates. It's always good to have this information handy when evaluating the integrity of a politician's position on a particular issue.
Posted by Tom at 12:06 PM
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April 3, 2004
Legislating stereotypes
This NY Times article reports on author David Horowitz's efforts is spearheading a campaign to end what he calls discrimination against conservative faculty and students in America's universities. Mr. Horowitz has written an "academic bill of rights" that asks universities, among other things, to include both conservative and liberal viewpoints in their selection of campus speakers and syllabuses for courses and to choose faculty members "with a view toward fostering a plurality of methodologies and perspectives."
This strikes me as an incredibly bad idea. First, can you imagine the difficulty that universities would have in defining what are "conservative" and "liberal" viewpoints? For example, my various viewpoints are regularly categorized as either conservative or liberal to the point that it is virtually impossible for me to determine with any degree of reasonable precision what constitutes a conservative or liberal viewpoint.
Similarly, Mr. Horowitz's latter recommendation sounds good in theory ("fostering a plurality of methodologies and perspectives"), but attempting to enforce such a guideline fails miserably in reality. Any speaker or teacher with good judgment who desires to persuade will necessarily incude different perspectives to his or her position. On the other hand, a speaker or teacher who does not have such good judgment may not. Should a university attempt to control the free flow of ideas within its community simply because the advocate of a certain position does not possess good judgment? Sometimes, even people who possess poor judgment have very good ideas.
Mr. Horowitz would be much better served in his efforts to begin an endowment program at various universities that would attract professors who would teach and perform research along the lines that he desires to promote. That would be putting his money where his mouth currently is. His "academic bill of rights" smacks of attempting to legislate good judgment, which is usually an abysmal failure.
Posted by Tom at 9:04 AM
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April 2, 2004
Couldn't he just become an Episcopalian?
That's what it appears the Catholic Church is saying under its breadth.
Posted by Tom at 4:57 AM
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April 1, 2004
"Against Selected Enemies"
After conceding that I have not had a chance to read Richard Clarke's new book "Against All Enemies" yet, I nevertheless made the following observation regarding the Clarke affair in a post last week:
[T]o the extent that Mr. Clarke's position is that the Bush Administration is more culpable for the 9/11 attacks than any one of the previous five (three Republican, two Democrat) administrations, his position is fundamentally flawed. America's intelligence failures over the past generation have been the result of a litany of bipartisan mistakes. If Mr. Clarke is suggesting that the Bush Administration's failures in this area are any more egregious than those of its predecessors, then he is doing his country a grave disservice and, in fact, is engaging in precisely the type of political posturing that has been so damaging to the intelligence community over the past 25 years.
In this Wall Street Journal ($) book review, Richard Miniter -- author of "Losing Bin Laden: How Bill Clinton's Failures Unleashed Global Terror" -- echoes that thought and more:
A year ago, I thought Richard A. Clarke, President Clinton's counterterror czar, was a hero. He and his small band of officials fought a long battle to focus the bureaucracy on stopping Osama bin Laden long before 9/11. For my own book, I interviewed Mr. Clarke extensively and found him to be blunt and forthright. He remembered whole conversations from inside the Situation Room.So I looked forward to reading "Against All Enemies" (Free Press, 304 pages, $27). Yes, I expected him to put the wood to President Bush for not doing enough about terrorism -- a continuation of his Clinton-era complaints -- and I expected that he might be right. I assumed, of course, that he would not spare the Clinton team either, or the CIA and FBI. I expected, in short, something blunt and forthright -- and, that rarest thing, nonpartisan in a principled way.
I was wrong on all counts. Forthright? One momentous Bush-era episode on which Mr. Clarke can shed some light is his decision to approve the flights of the bin Laden clan out of the U.S. in the days after 9/11, when all other flights were grounded. About this he doesn't say a word. The whole premise of "Against All Enemies" is its value as an insider account. But Mr. Clarke was not a Bush insider. When he lost his right to brief the Cabinet, he also lost his ringside seat on presidential decision-making.
Mr. Miniter goes on to detail how Mr. Clarke's book simply ignores the numerous known incidents of coordination between Iraq and al Qaeda:
He dismisses, as "raw," reports that show meetings between al Qaeda and the Mukhabarat, Iraq's intelligence service, going back to 1993. The documented meeting between the head of the Mukhabarat and bin Laden in Khartoum, Sudan, in 1996 -- a meeting that challenged all the CIA's assumptions about "secular" Iraq's distance from Islamist terrorism -- should have set off alarm bells. It didn't.There is other evidence of a connection between Iraq and al Qaeda that Mr. Clarke should have felt obliged to address. Just days before Mr. Clarke resigned, Secretary of State Colin Powell told the United Nations that bin Laden had met at least eight times with officers of Iraq's Special Security Organization. In 1998, an aide to Saddam's son Uday defected and repeatedly told reporters that Iraq funded al Qaeda. South of Baghdad, satellite photos pinpointed a Boeing 707 parked at a camp where terrorists learned to take over planes. When U.S. forces captured the camp, its commander confirmed that al Qaeda had trained there as early as 1997. Mr. Clarke does not take up any of this.
Mr. Miniter then notes Mr. Clarke's failure to address the intelligence failures of the Clinton Administration, of which Mr. Clarke was a key player:
Curiously, about the Clinton years, where Mr. Clarke's testimony would be authoritative, he is circumspect. When I interviewed him a year ago, he thundered at the political appointees who blocked his plan to destroy bin Laden's camps in Afghanistan in the wake of the October 2000 attack on the USS Cole. Yet in his book he glosses over them. He has little of his former vitriol for Clinton-era bureaucrats who tried to stop the deployment of the Predator spy plane over Afghanistan. (It spotted bin Laden three times.)He fails to mention that President Clinton's three "findings" on bin Laden, which would have allowed the U.S. to take action against him, were haggled over and lawyered to death. And he plays down the fact that the Treasury Department, worried about the effects on financial markets, obstructed efforts to cut off al Qaeda funding. He never notes that between 1993 and 1998 the FBI, under Mr. Clinton, paid an informant who turned out to be a double agent working on behalf of al Qaeda. In 1998, the Clinton administration alerted Pakistan to our imminent missile strikes in Afghanistan, despite the links between Pakistan's intelligence service and al Qaeda. Mr. Clarke excuses this decision -- bin Laden managed to flee just before the strikes -- as a diplomatic necessity.
To make matters worse, points out Mr. Miniter, Mr. Clarke's book is just plain sloppy:
Or, better, "Against All Evidence." Mr. Clarke misstates a range of checkable facts. The 1993 U.S. death toll in Somalia was 18, not 17. He writes that Khalid Shaikh Mohammed became al Qaeda's "chief operational leader" in 1995; in fact, he took over in November 2001. He writes (correctly) that Abdul Yasim, one of the 1993 World Trade Center bombers, fled to Iraq but adds the whopper that "he was incarcerated by Saddam Hussein's regime." An ABC News crew found Mr. Yasim working a government job in Iraq in 1997, and documents captured in 2003 revealed that the bomber had been on Saddam's payroll for years.Mr. Clarke gets the timing wrong of the plot to assassinate bin Laden in Sudan; it was 1994, not 1995, and was the work of Saudi intelligence, not Egypt. He dismisses Laurie Mylroie's [author of "The War Against America: Saddam Hussein and the World Trade Center Attacks: A Study of Revenge"] argument that Iraq was behind the 1993 World Trade Center blast as if there is nothing to it. Doesn't it matter that the bombers made hundreds of phone calls to Iraq in the weeks leading up to the event? That Ramzi Yousef, the lead bomber, entered the U.S. as a supposed refugee from Iraq? That he was known as "Rasheed the Iraqi"?
Finally, Mr. Miniter sums up Mr. Clarke's book as follows:
In recent days we have been subjected to a great deal of Mr. Clarke, not least to replays of his fulsome apology for not doing enough to prevent 9/11. But he has nothing to apologize for: He was a relentless foe of al Qaeda for years. He should really apologize for the flaws in his book.
Posted by Tom at 6:42 AM
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March 30, 2004
Polarized political discourse
Richard Clarke's book "Against All Enemies" that criticizes the Bush Administration's role in the war on terror is already No. 1 on the Amazon.com bestseller list. Does that spell trouble for Mr. Bush's re-election? Maybe not, says Alan Murray in this Wall Street Journal ($) column today:
The Amazon Web site says the Clarke book is being bought by the same readers who've already purchased titles like "Big Lies: The Right-Wing Propaganda Machine and How it Distorts the Truth" by liberal journalist Joe Conason, and "The Lies of George W. Bush" by liberal journalist David Corn. Those books, in turn, are sold to folks who've already read Michael Moore's "Dude, Where's My Country?" and Al Franken's "Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them." This is a group that already believes George W. Bush is the nation's prevaricator-in-chief, that he plundered working families to fatten the wallets of his CEO cronies, and that his major contribution to the war on terror was secretly shuttling bin Laden's relatives out of the country. In comparison, Mr. Clarke's charge -- that the president didn't pay enough attention to terrorism before Sept. 11 -- is almost quaint.
Mr. Murray goes on to point out a disturbing trend in American political discourse:
To Mr. Hannity, all Democrats are "appeasers" and "moral relativists" -- members of a political party that "has become unhinged." Mr. Savage goes further, tagging Hillary Clinton and Howard Dean as the "modern-day descendants of Benedict Arnold." Al Franken labels Republicans as "Chicken hawks" and racists, while Michael Moore blames President Bush himself -- as well as those of us who drive SUVs -- for fomenting terror.Why write such tirades? Because they sell. . .
The bipolar bestseller list is just one more symptom of the disease that now infects American politics. The nation is becoming increasingly polarized. The left and the right view each other with distrust and disdain -- even though their policy proposals often remain strikingly similar. Sane compromise in the center has become all but impossible.The media -- defined broadly -- plays a big role in this unfortunate trend. The problem is not the power of "big media" -- as some would have you believe. Rather, it is the unprecedented power of consumers to choose exactly what kind of media they wish to receive. Conservatives can get their news by watching Sean Hannity's television show at night, listening to Rush Limbaugh's radio show during the day, and creating a customized Internet newspaper that caters to all their biases -- "The Daily Me," as computer guru Nicholas Negroponte calls it. Liberals can do much the same -- even more so after tomorrow, when Mr. Franken and friends launch Air America, a liberal radio network. Both sides have their prejudices constantly reinforced; neither has to confront the challenge of opposing views.
That leaves little tolerance for the kind of balanced, bipartisan inquiry that former Rep. Lee Hamilton and former Gov. Thomas Kean were trying to conduct last week. More power to them; they are members of a dying breed.
Posted by Tom at 6:53 AM
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March 29, 2004
The Uses of Failure
Lee Harris over at Tech Central Station has this interesting piece on Americans' distaste for failure. Mr. Harris notes as follows:
If Americans have one collective shortcoming, it is that we have no use for failure. Success alone is what counts for us; and though we are apt to applaud those who have given their best to come in at second or third place, we all tend to shrink back from complete and abject failure.That is why, whenever a President looks around for men to be by his side, to guide him and to give him counsel, he will look to those who have been successful at everything that they have put their hand to. It is one of our cherished mottos that success breeds success; and we are confident that if we appoint only successful men to positions of prominence, any project undertaken by these men is bound to be successful, too.
This is our form of paganism, since underlying the American myth of success is the primitive belief that some people are just plain lucky -- just as certain numbers are, or certain days, or certain arrangements of the planets.
Mr. Harris goes on to discuss the Greek notion of hubris, which necessarily flows from success, and then recommends as follows:
Failure has lessons to teach us that are often far more valuable than those of success. Success all too often reassures us that we are right, and often with little reason. The man who sells everything he owes in order to buy lottery tickets, and who loses, becomes a little wiser. But the man who sells everything, and wins, will remain a fool forever.Which is why I am hereby proposing a new department for the United States -- the department of human failure, whose secretary should be appointed purely on the basis of his lack of worldly success. He will be required to attend every cabinet meeting, and at the end of each discussion, all the successful men around the table must listen in silence for the fiftieth time as the Secretary of Failure tells them how he lost his business, or how he gambled away a fortune, or how his summer vacation in Florida turned into the worst nightmare of his life.
True, it would not ascend to the lofty heights of Sophocles and Euripides; but it would help.
Thanks to my friend Bill Hesson for the link to Mr. Harris' piece.
Posted by Tom at 8:55 AM
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March 24, 2004
John Cornyn and Barney Frank debate (?) gay marriage
Texas senator John Cornyn and Massachusetts congressman Barney Frank spiced a Senate Judciary Committee hearing yesterday by getting into it on the issue of gay marriage.
For what it's worth, I am not sold on gay marriage, but conclusory statements such as those made by Senator Cornyn yesterday do little to advance the political debate over gay marriage. What is his basis for the statement that gay marriage will undermine the institution of marriage? Statistical evidence? Scientific evidence? Or is his statement based on religious opposition to gay marriage? I do not know the basis for Senator Cornyn's opposition to gay marriage, but the only way to have a productive political debate is to support one's pronouncement on the issue with a persuasive (or even non-persuasive, if that is the case) basis for such pronouncement.
This related story deals with an issue that has the divorce lawyers salivating.
Posted by Tom at 4:11 AM
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March 23, 2004
Methodist trial of lesbian pastor
My buddy J.D. Walt of Asbury Seminary passes along this NY Times article regarding the just concluded Methodist Church trial in which a jury of 13 Methodist clergy members found that a fellow minister did not violate Methodist church law by being in a lesbian relationship.
The prosecution had argued that the case for conviction was cut and dried, because the law of the Methodist church as set forth in the Book of Discipline has included a passage that says homosexuality is "incompatible with Christian teaching." The prosecution called only one witness. On the other hand, the defense team presented over 20 witnesses, including several Methodist legal scholars, who argued that the Book of Discipline and the Bible contain unclear and contradictory passages about homosexual relationships.
Although it appears that the prosecution may have thrown in the towel on this case before it ever started (one witness? no rebuttal witnesses?), the outcome nevertheless raises an interesting question on the related issue of gay marriage. That is, if Christian churches are allowing their leadership to be involved in gay relationships (note that the Episcopalians recently endorsed a gay bishop), and assuming that those same churches are not ready to endorse gay marriage, then are these churches going to support civil (i.e., non-religious) unions for gay couples?
Posted by Tom at 9:06 AM
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March 21, 2004
The intersection of drug policy and prison policy
This Brent Staples' NY Times Review of Books article that reviews "Life on the Outside, The Prison Odyssey of Elaine Bartlett," Jennifer Gonnerman's new book about how the government's criminalization of its drug policy has led to a large and growing portion of society that is chronically disenfranchised, at enormous societal cost. Ms. Gonnerman, who has wrote extensively about drug policy as a staff writer for the Village Voice, tells the story through the family of Elaine Bartlett, a young mother of four who received a sentence of 20 to life for her selling cocaine to an undercover cop in a motel near Albany, her first offense. As Ms. Gonnerman notes:
The United States is transforming itself into a nation of ex-convicts. This country imprisons people at 14 times the rate of Japan, eight times the rate of France and six times the rate of Canada. The American prison system disgorges 600,000 angry, unskilled people each year -- more than the populations of Boston, Milwaukee or Washington . . .Ex-cons are marooned in the poor inner-city neighborhoods where legitimate jobs do not exist and the enterprises that led them to prison in the first place are ever present. These men and women are further cut off from the mainstream by sanctions that are largely invisible to those of us who have never been to prison. They are commonly denied the right to vote, parental rights, drivers' licenses, student loans and residency in public housing -- the only housing that marginal, jobless people can afford. The most severe sanctions are reserved for former drug offenders, who have been treated worse than murderers since the start of the so-called war on drugs. The Welfare Reform Act of 1996, for example, imposed a lifetime ban on food stamp and welfare eligibility for people convicted of even a single drug felony. The states can opt out of the prohibition, but where it remains intact it cannot be lifted even for ex-prisoners who live model, crime-free lives.
* * *
Mass imprisonment has not hindered the drug trade. Indeed, drugs are cheaper and more plentiful today than ever. In addition, many of the addicts who are held in jail for years at a cost of more than $20,000 per inmate per year could be more cheaply and effectively dealt with in treatment. What jumps out at you from ''Life on the Outside'' is the extent to which imprisonment has been normalized, not just for adults from poor communities but for children who visit their parents in prison. Spending holidays and birthdays behind bars for years on end, these children come to think of prison as a natural next step in the process of growing up.
Although both major political parties share blame for failing to address America's drug policy in a responsible manner, the Bush Administration's failure in this area -- coupled with its failure to address such major issues as health care finance reform, income tax reform, and environmental policy reform -- provides a solid basis for the Democrats to attack the Bush Administration in the upcoming election. Although the Bush Administration has performed admirably under difficult circumstances in prosecuting the war against Islamic fascists, its performance on domestic issues such as those mentioned above has been abysmal. If President Bush loses the election this November, that lack of leadership on those key issues will likely be the reason why.
Posted by Tom at 11:38 AM
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March 20, 2004
Q&A with Victor Davis Hanson
Victor Davis Hanson is accepting email questions on his new website and answering them when he has the time. The following is an insightful answer to one of the current questions:
Question: The wealth and power that Rome accumulated within a couple of generations, it seems, led to two civil wars and the destruction of the Republic. I feel as though our political situation is becoming as partisan and could very well end in some type of civil strife within another generation. Am I way off base here?Hanson: I can?t quite adjudicate all your comparisons, but I share your worry about polarization and think this next campaign will be the nastiest in some time. I didn?t really dislike personally Bill Clinton, although I felt he weakened the United States abroad. But there were many on the Right who did?and gave him no fair hearing, especially about his commendable though belated attack on Milosevic. Yet, their animus has been trumped by Bush-haters. And we are now in a spiral whose logical end is sort of frightening.
Posted by Tom at 7:20 PM
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David Warren: One Year Later
David Warren's latest is "One Year Later."
Posted by Tom at 12:52 PM
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The Latest Coup
The New York Times has its faults, but it continues to be one of the best sources of international news reporting. Today, Times foreign correspondence Michael Wines writes this incredible story about the latest coup attempt in Equitorial Guinea, the poor Western African country that has been the site of an oil and gas drilling boom over the past decade. The entire story is the stuff from which entertaining movies are made, and the following will give you a flavor for it:
This malarial West African dictatorship quashed another coup attempt this month, which is like saying the corner 7-Eleven served up another Slurpee. Quashed coups (five since 1996) are a political staple here, so routine that some say the government stages and then quashes them to burnish its image of invincibility.But the coup this month was different. Nobody could make this coup up.
The coup attempt of 2004 features a dysfunctional ruling family, a Lamborghini-driving, rap-music-producing heir apparent and a bitter political opponent in exile who insists that Equatorial Guinea is run by a gonad-eating cannibal. It is said to involve a Lebanese front company, a British financier, an opposition figure living in exile in Spain and some 80 mercenaries from South Africa, Germany, Armenia and Kazakhstan.
With such a polyglot cast, this whodunit has become almost a parlor game among Africa watchers. Not since Christmas 1975, when Moroccan palace guards shot 150 suspected plotters in the city soccer stadium to a band's rendition of "Those Were the Days, My Friend" has a botched takeover set tongues wagging so briskly.
* * *
. . . [t]oppling Equatorial Guinea's government would be no mean feat, because removing the president would barely scratch the surface. The military is peppered with Mr. Obiang's cousins and nephews. One of his sons is the natural resources minister. A brother-in-law is ambassador to Washington.A brother, Armengol Ondo Nguema, is a top internal security official and, according to a 1999 State Department report, a torturer whose minions urinated on their victims, sliced their ears and rubbed oil on their bodies to lure stinging ants.
Finally, a second son, Teodoro Nguemo Obiang, is the infrastructure minister and his father's anointed successor. To the dismay of some relatives, he also is a rap music entrepreneur and bon vivant, fond of Lamborghinis and long trips to Hollywood and Rio de Janeiro, who shows few signs of following his father's iron-fisted tradition.
* * *
The entire plot, he said, was hatched by Severo Moto, an Equatorial Guinean opposition figure and longtime fomenter of quashed coups who lives in exile in Madrid. Mr. Moto's coup was said to be financed by $5 million from a British businessman, washed through a front company in Lebanon.Mr. Moto makes no secret of his hatred of President Obiang: on Spanish radio this month, he called him a demon who "systematically eats his political rivals."
"He has just devoured a police commissioner. I say `devoured,' as this commissioner was buried without his testicles and brain," he said, adding that Mr. Obiang hungered for his body parts as well.
"We are in the hands of a cannibal," he warned.
Posted by Tom at 9:43 AM
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March 19, 2004
VDH on the History of Democracy
Victor Davis Hanson's latest National Review Online op-ed is online. As usual, the entire piece is well worth reading, and Professor Davis concludes with the following observation:
Indeed, we are in one of the rare periods of fundamental transformation in world history ? as the United States has pledged its blood and treasure in both a dangerous and daring attempt to bring the Middle East, kicking and screaming, into the family of democratic nations and free societies. So while American soldiers fight, build, patrol, and sometimes die in Iraq and Afghanistan, the world at large ? the Saudi royal family, President Musharraf, Mr. Khaddafi, the mullahs in Iran, the young Assad, the kleptocracy on the West Bank, and the weak and triangulating Europeans ? wonders whether the strong horse will prove to be the murderous bin Laden and his Arab romance of a new Dark Age, or George Bush's idea of a free and democratic Middle East.
Posted by Tom at 9:49 AM
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March 18, 2004
Victor Davis Hanson on Spain, Europe, America and the Middle East
FrontpagMag.com interviews the always insightful Victor Davis Hanson regarding the recent events in Spain and the Middle East, and how Americans and Europeans have reacted to them. Thanks to Occam's Toothbrush for the link. The entire interview is a must read, but one sentence about what could defeat America stands out:
I am talking about a secular religion of anti-Americanism brought on by our very success that allows such utopianism and cheap caring-and it does weaken and tire our efforts to win this war.
Posted by Tom at 5:24 PM
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ChevronTexaco: Enough already
Clearly worn down by the prospect of dealing further with the Harris County Commissioner's Court, ChevronTexaco announced yesterday that it had closed the deal to buy the former Enron Building in downtown Houston. In light of the County's recalcitrance, I suspect that the seller threw come additional consideration to ChevronTexaco to get the deal done.
As noted in this earlier post on the matter, this closing frees Harris County taxpayers from having to deal with Commissioner Steve Radack's delusions about having the County buy the building.
Posted by Tom at 9:00 AM
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Medicare prescription drug controversy intensifies
The Bush Admininistration's conduct in promoting the Medicare prescription drug legislation last year is coming under increasing scrutiny. Already of dubious financial merit, this NY Times article reports on the opening of a House inquiry into bribery allegations that are based on a Republican congressman's public comments made immediately following the close vote last year over the controversial bill.
In related news, this WSJ ($) article and this NY Times article report on the controversy swirling around Richard Foster, Medicare's chief actuary. Mr. Foster was warned last year that he could be accused of "insubordination" if he shared information with Congress about the White House-backed prescription-drug bill without the approval of his politically appointed superiors, according to e-mails from the top aide to Thomas Scully, who was then the Bush Administration's administrator for the health-care program. A WSJ copy of the email can be reviewed here. The gist of the story is that Mr. Foster was pressured to reduce the estimated ten year cost of the Medicare prescription drug program by about 30% in order to make it more politically palatable. While Republican leaders say the allegations are overblown, no one doubts that release of the higher cost estimates last fall would have probably killed the prescription drug bill, which only passed by one vote after hours of arm-twisting in the House in November.
Again, my sense is that the Bush Administration's handling of health care finance issues is a major, and largely underappreciated (at least by administration officials), political problem for the administration in the upcoming election.
Posted by Tom at 8:35 AM
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Shelby Steele on gay marriage
Hoover Institute fellow Shelby Steele writes this Wall Street Journal op-ed in which he criticizes the notion that the gay marriage is a civil rights issue analogous to that of the struggle to end racial segregation in America. Mr. Steele, who favors civil unions for gay couples, nevertheless does not favor gay marriage. The entire op-ed is well worth reading, and here are a few of Mr. Steele's poignant observations:
But gay marriage is simply not a civil rights issue. It is not a struggle for freedom. It is a struggle of already free people for complete social acceptance and the sense of normalcy that follows thereof -- a struggle for the eradication of the homosexual stigma. Marriage is a goal because, once open to gays, it would establish the fundamental innocuousness of homosexuality itself. Marriage can say like nothing else that sexual orientation is an utterly neutral human characteristic, like eye-color. Thus, it can go far in diffusing the homosexual stigma.In the gay marriage movement, marriage is more a means than an end, a weapon against stigma. That the movement talks very little about the actual institution of marriage suggests that it is driven more by this longing to normalize homosexuality itself than by something compelling in marriage. . .
But marriage is only one means to innocuousness. The civil rights framework is another. To say that gay marriage is a civil rights issue is to imply that homosexuality is the same sort of human difference as race. And even geneticists now accept that race is so superficial a human difference as to be nothing more than a "social construct." In other words, racial difference has been made officially innocuous in our culture, and its power to stigmatize has been greatly reduced. Evidence of this is seen in the steady, yet unremarked, rise in interracial marriage rates for all of our races. So if gay marriage, like race, is about civil rights, then homosexuality is a human difference every bit as innocuous. Thus, America should treat homosexuality like it treats race and give gays the "right" to marry as it once gave blacks the right to vote.
* * *
The civil rights movement argued that it was precisely the utter innocuousness of racial difference that made segregation an injustice. Racism was evil because it projected a profound difference where there was none -- white supremacy, black inferiority -- for the sole purpose of exploiting blacks. But there is a profound difference between homosexuality and heterosexuality. In the former, sexual and romantic desire is focused on the same sex, in the latter on the opposite sex. Natural procreation is possible only for heterosexuals, a fact of nature that obligates their sexuality to no less a responsibility than the perpetuation of the species. Unlike racial difference, these two sexual orientations are profoundly -- not innocuously -- different. Racism projects a false difference in order to exploit. Homophobia is a reactive prejudice against a true and firm difference that already exists.Institutions that arise to accommodate these two sexual orientations can never be exactly the same. Across time and cultures, marriage has been a heterosexual institution grounded in the procreative function and the responsibilities of parenthood -- this more than in either love or adult fulfillment. Marriage is simply the arrangement by which humans perpetuate the species, whether or not they find fulfillment in it.
The true problem with gay marriage is that it consigns gays to a life of mimicry and pathos. It shoehorns them into an institution that does not reflect the best possibilities of their own sexual orientation. Gay love is freed from the procreative burden. It has no natural function beyond adult fulfillment in love. If this is a disadvantage when children are desired, it is likely an advantage when they are not -- which is more often the case. In any case, gays can never be more than pretenders to an institution so utterly grounded in procreation. And dressing gay marriage in a suit of civil rights only consigns gays to yet another kind of mimicry. Stigma, not segregation, is the problem gays face. But insisting on a civil rights framework only leads gays into protest. But will protest affect stigma? Is "gay lovers as niggers" convincing? Protest is trying to hit the baseball with the glove.
The problem with so much mimicry is that it keeps gays from evolving institutions and rituals that reflect the true nature of homosexuality. Assuming, as I do, that gays should have the option of civil unions that afford them the legal prerogatives of marriage, isn't it more important after that to allow quiet self-acceptance to lead the way to authentic institutions?
The stigmatization of homosexuals is wrong and makes no contribution to the moral health of our society. I was never worried for my children because they grew up knowing a gay couple that lived across the street, or because several family friends were gay. They learned early what we all know: that homosexuality is as permanent a feature of the human condition as heterosexuality. Nothing is gained in denying this. But neither should we deny that the two are inherently different. The gay marriage movement denies this difference in order to borrow "normalcy" from marriage. Thus, it is a movement born more of self-denial than self-acceptance, as if on some level it agrees with those who see gays as abnormal.
Meanwhile, in this Atlantic Monthly piece, Jonathon Rauch argues that principles of American federalism call for the gay marriage issue to be determined on a state-by-state basis.
Posted by Tom at 7:44 AM
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March 17, 2004
UT Prof and NRO: Things are not always as they appear
Earlier today, I blogged this post about this National Review Online op-ed by Hunter Baker, who is described in the preface of the article as a "Texas freelance writer." Mr. Baker's article is highly critical of UT Law Professor, Brian Leiter, for Professor Leiter's earlier criticism of the student author of a Harvard Law Review note that was complimentary of Baylor philosophy professor Francis Beckwith's new book, "Law, Darwinism, & Public Education." Professor Leiter subscribes to Darwin's Theory of Evolution, while Professor Beckwith is as proponent of what is known as the "Intelligent Design Theory," which is an outgrowth of creationism.
At any rate, my earlier blog was critical of Professor Leiter, not so much because of his views on evolution, which he presents very well. Rather, I was critical of the Professor's accusation that the student author of the Harvard Law Review note had engaged in academic fraud, which I did not think was clearly reflected by the note.
Well, the student reviewer may be pristine as driven snow, but Mr. Baker -- the author of the National Review Online piece -- is not. Turns out that Mr. Baker is a graduate student of Baylor Professor Beckwith! And to make matters worse, Mr. Baker did not bother to disclose his close association with Professor Beckwith in his NRO article.
In the last paragraph of his NRO article, Mr. Baker suggests that Professor Leiter owes the student author of the Harvard Law Review note an apology. I initially agreed with that sentiment. However, now I apologize to Professor Leiter for my earlier post, and suggest to Mr. Baker that he owes him one, too.
Posted by Tom at 5:58 PM
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UT Professor criticizes Harvard Law Review
Brian Leiter is the Joseph D. Jamail Centennial Chair in Law, Professor of Philosophy, and Director of the Law & Philosophy Program at the University of Texas at Austin. Professor Leiter advocates a Darwinian materialist vision of the world from his weblog, The Leiter Reports. Professor Leiter is also the author of The Philosophical Gourmet Report, which is a respected ranking of graduate philosophy programs in academia.
Hunter Baker reports in this NRO article, Professor Leiter recently criticized Harvard Law Review and Harvard law student Lawrence VanDyke for giving Baylor professor Francis Beckwith's new book, "Law, Darwinism, & Public Education," a positive review in the January 2004 issue of the Harvard Law Review. In the following passage, Professor Leiter accuses Mr. VanDyke of "scholarly fraud", which Mr. Baker reasonably interprets as an indictment if the student reviewer were ever to seek an academic position after finishing his education at Harvard:
The author of this incompetent book note . . . is one Lawrence VanDyke, a student editor of the Review. Mr. VanDyke may yet have a fine career as a lawyer, but I trust he has no intention of entering law teaching: scholarly fraud is, I fear, an inauspicious beginning for an aspiring law teacher. And let none of the many law professors who are readers of this site be mistaken: Mr. VanDyke has perpetrated a scholarly fraud, one that may have political and pedagogical consequences.
Mr. VanDyke is not backing off of his positive review despite Professor Leiter's criticism:
He defends the substance of his book note and charges that Leiter's attack represents "an effort to make sure all students recognize that if they step outside the bounds of Leiter's orthodoxy, their careers will be in serious jeopardy." He adds, "This is pretty amazing considering my book note actually talks about the 'hostility and censorship of the evolutionary establishment.' If anything, Mr. Leiter acts as if it his goal to prove me correct."
Mr. Baker closes his NRO article with the following observation:
Unless he gets his temper under control, Brian Leiter won't continue to have the influence in the academy he currently enjoys. Threatening the career of a young law student because he dared to differ is a sorry spectacle. Let's hope a chastened Leiter will get a lesson in freedom of inquiry and expression from his fellows and then will be man enough to apologize to the promising student whose destruction he proposed.
Subsequently, Professor Leiter has penned responses on his blog to criticism over his attack on Harvard Law Review and Mr. VanDyke, which can be reviewed here and here. To his credit, Professor Leiter's responses are well-prepared and contain many good links to the scientific basis for the theory of evolution, the lack of which is his main criticism of the Intelligent Design theory espoused by Professor Beckwith and others.
Thanks to Logos for the pointer to Mr. Baker's article.
Posted by Tom at 9:15 AM
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March 16, 2004
David Warren on Rotten Europe
David Warren has another compelling article, this time on Spanish capitulation to the Islamic fascists who are apparently responsible for the March 11th bombing that killed over 200 immediately before the Spanish national elections. The entire article is a well worth reading, but here are a couple of tidbits:
Analysis and homily must converge in what I have to say today. There is no ambiguity in what has happened in Spain. The rotten heart of Europe has been exposed. The best comparison one can make is to Europe in 1940, when the entire continent had capitulated to Nazism and fascism, leaving Britain alone to fight. It thus came to be known as "Churchill's war", rather than "Hitler's war", only to revert when the Allies had won it, and a generation of Europeans, who had not lifted a finger, decided retrospectively that they had been in the Resistance.
A good question might be asked of the Bush administration, in light of the Spanish election. It was articulated by an American friend yesterday: "Before we waste another drop of blood trying to create democracies in the Middle East, shouldn't we reflect a bit on how easily democracy in Spain was subverted by terrorists?"One must not, under the present circumstances, sound an uncertain trumpet. All men of goodwill, regardless of nation, are fighting the Jihadists in Afghanistan and Iraq, as we fought the Nazis in Italy and France; and if the Americans must fight them alone, so be it. Then as now we made a lot of blather about "democracy". But screw democracy, we are fighting an enemy of civilization, an embodiment of real evil. There is no compromise with such an enemy, no capitulation to him, no way to avoid casualties, no easy way out. We defeat him, or he defeats us.
We do not retreat because our allies are cowards. We continue to fight, for ourselves, for our children, and for their children.
Posted by Tom at 7:20 PM
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INSCOM apologizes
This Austin American-Statesmen article follows up on an incident that occurred last month at the University of Texas Law School, as reported in this earlier post. The U.S. Army Intelligence and Security Command (INSCOM) officials said they would provide refresher training for all U.S. Army intelligence personnel as a result of their investigation after a Feb. 4 conference entitled "Islam and the Law: A Question of Sexism" at the UT Law School. INSCOM has concluded that military intelligence agents acted inappropriately when they requested a roster of people attending a conference on Islamic law at the University of Texas. Army investigators had not decided whether any of the agents or the commander involved would be reprimanded or disciplined.
Posted by Tom at 6:18 AM
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March 15, 2004
Kerry's Health Plan
This Wall Street Journal ($) article describes the Kerry Campaign's health care finance plan. The entire article is well worth reading, and includes the following summary of the plan:
Mr. Kerry has vowed to restore higher tax rates for those earning more than $200,000 a year, yielding about $300 billion in revenue over the next decade. Sweeping estate-tax changes and corporate subsidies are two more targets. But he also is betting -- some say unrealistically -- that his emphasis on better information technology and disease-management practices ultimately will yield big long-term savings.
. . .He also proposes to have Washington step in to reinsure high-cost patients, and thereby reduce premiums charged to private companies and their workers.
It already makes a striking contrast with Mr. Clinton's more controlling attempt to revamp the nation's health-care system 10 years earlier. At the time, nothing less than universal coverage was the president's goal, which forced the party into a set of employer mandates and cost caps that provoked huge resistance in the small-business community.By comparison, Mr. Kerry chooses two core social principles: caring for poor children and better sharing the cost of the sickest patients. He never attempts to achieve universal coverage and devotes huge sums to help those trying to keep what they already have.
Posted by Tom at 6:24 AM
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March 13, 2004
Coincidence?
This NY Post article is the first that I have seen that points out that there were exactly 911 days between the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks and the latest bombing attacks in Madrid.
Meanwhile, the Iberian Notes blog has a helpful list of evidence that points to either the ETA or Al Qaeda being the perpetrator of the Madrid attack.
Posted by Tom at 9:29 AM
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Lewis: Avoid the Algerian Precedent
Occam's Toothbrush points us to this Jerusalem Post interview with Princeton University Professor Emeritus Bernard Lewis, America's preeminent expert on Middle East affairs (author of "What Went Wrong"), in which Professor Lewis comments on the present situation in Iraq:
Are you in favor of immediate elections in Iraq?I don't want us to repeat what happened in Algeria, where elections quickly devolved into a massacre. We need to tread very carefully. Elections have to stabilize Iraq, not upset it. Otherwise, countries like Iran and other Middle Eastern dictatorships have an interest in seeing to it that democracy never takes root. Much of the funding and organizational support for terrorist groups comes from Iran.
Do you have faith that, in spite of everything, democracy will prevail?
Saddam Hussein, a Ba'athist-minority dictator, was nourished by Nazism first and then by communism, both European totalitarian ideologies. If anything, the risk of not succeeding in dismantling these fragile Middle Eastern dictatorships today lies more in the history of the rapport between the Muslim and the Western worlds than it does in Muslim roots. Islam, which has been weak for two centuries, has always sought backing to help it fight the enemy - Western democracy. First it supported the Axis against the Allies, then the communists against the US: two disasters. Today it is seeking the protection of Europe against the US, which it sees as its principal enemy. And Europe is facing a difficult debate between those who want to accept that role and those who don't. Please, I have no intention of comparing Europe to Nazi Germany or the USSR, I'm only talking about the position in which the Arab world is trying to put the old continent.
Posted by Tom at 7:48 AM
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March 12, 2004
The Saudi War on George Bush
Via Instapundit, Ed Lasky, a contributor to The American Thinker, posits in this article that Saudi Arabia has launched an undeclared war on President Bush in an effort to sabotage the long term success of America?s war on Islamic fascism. Mr. Lasky points out that President Bush has fundamentally altered the previous cozy relationship between the Saudi Royal Family and the Bush Family:
The terror attacks convinced George W. Bush that America?s approach to the Middle East needed to be drastically changed, to ensure America?s safety. His campaign to oust the Taliban from theocratic rule in Afghanistan and his defeat of Saddam Hussein sent a message to the Saudis that ?business as usual? was a thing of the past. In calling for liberalism throughout the Arab world and for the acceptance of other religions, Bush challenged the support structure of the Saudi royal family, whose legitimacy is predicated on their role as defender of Islam?s holy sites and propagator of the faith.Much more importantly, in severing the ties that once bound, Bush II has declared that the ties of filial duty, which both animate and constrain the dynamics of the Saudi royal family, do not matter so much in his family. Not anymore, at least, no matter what the former appearances. In doing so, George Bush has become an apostate to the Saudis. It is not merely a matter of interests, but rather an issue of deep principle, fundamentally linked to their own way of life, and to their survival.
From the vantage point of the Saudis, Bush II is not just unreliable, but also a danger. He is a self-identified born-again Christian, and is closely allied with the religious wing of the Republican Party. In a theocratic nation which forbids the practice of Christianity, a leader linked to rival religion is anathema. In their eyes (as well as those of some of President Bush?s most ardent opponents) he may seem to be something of a theocrat himself, but from a longstanding historical rival religion.
When the President?s Christian moorings are combined with the exaggerated role that Jewish neo-cons supposedly have in the White House (once again the fevered imaginations of the Saudis bear some resemblance to those of the President?s most extreme domestic antagonists), trouble of the most fundamental sort looms for their regime. All along, the fanatic Wahabbi wing of the clergy has preached that a holy war exists with the West, and that accommodation with the infidels can only be a tactical pause in the eventual all-out war. From their perspective, it is easy to understand why George W. Bush -- the Christian ?puppet of the Jews,? and thus the embodiment of Wahabbi nightmares -- needs to be removed from office.
Mr. Lasky goes on to predict that the Saudis will attempt to use their power within the OPEC to increase energy prices that would create a lag on the U.S. economy, which would lead to voter disenchantment with President Bush in November. I am not convinced of the economic viability of that theory, but Mr. Lasky's views on the Saudi Royal Family's view toward President Bush appear to be on target.
Posted by Tom at 8:17 AM
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March 11, 2004
LA Times on Joe Barton
This LA Times piece profiles Texas Republican congressman Joe Barton the new chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee. Two of the revelations from the article -- Rep. Barton is not a "Hollywood-type guy" and he enjoys playing poker.
Posted by Tom at 8:08 AM
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UN oil for food scandal
Today's Wall Street Journal ($) contains this devastating op-ed by Therese Raphael about the corrupt United Nations' "Oil for Food" program that Saddam Hussein and his henchmen used to line their pockets during the final years of Iraq's fascist regime. The entire article is well worth reading, and concludes as follows:
There is no doubt that the U.N. relief effort in Iraq has been a global scandal. A monstrous dictator was able to turn the Oil-for-Food Program into a cash cow for himself and his inner circle, leaving Iraqis further deprived as he bought influence abroad and acquired the arms and munitions that coalition forces discovered when they invaded Iraq last spring.A U.N. culture of unaccountability is certainly also to blame. And Security Council members share responsibility for lax oversight, no doubt one reason there is so little appetite for an investigation.
But Saddam's ability to reap billions for himself, his cronies and those who proved useful to him abroad depended on individuals who were his counterparties. These deserve a full investigation if the U.N.'s credibility is to be restored and its role in Iraq and elsewhere trusted. Especially now, with the U.N. taking a more active role in Iraq, it's time we knew more about how the Oil-For-Food scandal was allowed to happen.
Posted by Tom at 7:50 AM
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March 10, 2004
More on the Muslim World's Holy War
Following this post here from last week, Daniel Drezner has an excellent blog discussion contending that last week's attacks on Shiite Muslims reflect that Islamic fascists are becoming more desperate and less powerful.
Posted by Tom at 8:44 AM
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March 9, 2004
VDH's finally has a website
As readers of this blog know, Victor Davis Hanson is one of my favorite commentators on America's position in the world and its war against Islamic fascists. Dr. Hanson finally has his own website. I suspect that this site will go on more than a few favorite lists over the several days.
Posted by Tom at 1:09 PM
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Remember to vote!
Today is the Texas Primary election, so remember to vote. Here is the prior post in which I provide my recommendations in the Republican primary judicial races.
Posted by Tom at 6:10 AM
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March 7, 2004
Interesting political analysis of Bush and Kerry
Dr. Keith Poole is a bright political science professor at the University of Houston. Daniel Drezner points us today to this Chicago Tribune article by Assistant Professor Jeffrey A. Jenkins of Northwestern University that concludes, based upon this methodology developed by Dr. Poole, that President Bush and Senator Kerry are both more moderate than their respective opponents represent. Professor Jenkins notes:
As it turns out, Bush is positioned near the dividing line between the center-right and right quartiles of the party. So, while clearly right of center, he is not part of the most conservative segment of the party, anchored historically by the likes of Sens. Phil Gramm and Jesse Helms. He is considerably more conservative than Dwight Eisenhower and Gerald Ford, somewhat more conservative than Richard Nixon, slightly more conservative than his father, George H.W. Bush, but less conservative than Reagan.What about Kerry, the would-be president? Should he become president, what should we expect? How does this left-leaning moderate compare to other recent Democratic presidents? In fact, only Lyndon Johnson appears more conservative than Kerry; Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton appear slightly more liberal; and John F. Kennedy, to whom Kerry is often compared, appears considerably more liberal than the Massachusetts senator trying to follow in his footsteps.
Posted by Tom at 2:49 PM
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March 6, 2004
The Muslim World's Holy War
Some 140 Iranian and Iraqi Shiite pilgrims died earlier this week in suicide bombings in Baghdad and Karbala, and another 43 Pakistani Shiites were killed in Quetta, Pakistan. Moreover, yesterday, Shiite Muslims in Iraq refused to sign the U.S. sponsored Iraqi Constitution unless changes are made to strengthen Shiite power. These developments highlight a grave problem that confronts American foreign policy -- i.e., the conflict between Shiite Muslims and Sunni Muslims in Iraq threatens a religious war throughout Muslim regions of the Middle East and Asia. In this David Warren piece and in this Vali Nasr piece, Mr. Warren and Professor Nasr examine Wahhabi Sunni Muslim antipathy toward Shiite Muslims, and the growth of the conflict between those two factions of Islam over the past decade. These are excellent analyses of this primary barrier to stability in Islamic countries.
Posted by Tom at 8:32 AM
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March 5, 2004
Tony Blair's Speech
Tony Blair is the clearest communicator on the international political stage right now. This is his most recent speech defending the Iraq War.
Posted by Tom at 4:49 PM
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Victor Davis Hanson's latest
Victor Davis Hanson's weekly column takes a look at the big picture and calls for steady leadership in the face of change. Mr. Hanson will also be the guest on Book TV's March 7 In Depth program.
Posted by Tom at 4:42 PM
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Nuclear deal-making
Seymour Hersh has written an article in the most recent New Yorker entitled "Why is Washington going easy on Pakistan's nuclear black marketers?" According to Mr. Hersh, the answer is that the U.S. agreed to let Pakistani President Musharraf pardon a known dealer in nuclear-weapons materials so that President Musharraf would allow the U.S. to operate in a region of Pakistan that would facilitate the capture of Osama bin Laden. As usual with Mr. Hersh's work, fascinating reading.
Posted by Tom at 4:11 PM
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A Kerry endorsement?
This endorsement is one that the Kerry Campaign could do without.
Posted by Tom at 10:07 AM
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Why politics is not for the fainthearted
In this Austin American Statesman story, Texas Governor Rick Perry responds to and denies salacious rumors that have been circulating over the Internet for the past month that his marriage is on the rocks because of alleged infidelity and that Mr. Perry is preparing to resign. Although a couple of fringe magazines had alluded to the rumors earlier, this is the first major news media acknowledgement of the rumors despite the fact that several blogs -- notably The Agonist and the Burnt Orange Report -- have been irresponsibly reporting the rumors as virtual fact for the past several weeks, prompting Texas Democratic Party Chairman Charles Soechting to refer to the rumors at a Feb. 24 political rally in Houston.
I am independent politically and vote for Republicans and Democrats candidates in virtually every election. However, the response of Mr. Soechting to Mr. Perry's announcement reinforces my belief that the Texas Democratic Party's leadership in Texas is sadly misguided. Here is Mr. Soechting's response:
"What crosses the line of everything decent is the utter hypocrisy of Rick Perry injecting his mean-spirited politics into everyone else's personal life while insisting his own personal life is off limits. What is truly indecent is the state of children's health care, public schools and insurance rates under Perry's regime," Mr. Soechting said in a statement issued by the Texas Democratic Party.
In other words, "so long as we disagree with the Governor's political stances, it's O.K. to spread salacious rumors about the Governor's personal life." With that kind of judgment behind its political decisions, it is little wonder that the Texas Democratic Party has become an afterthought in Texas politics.
In fact, if the Texas Democratic Party had any remaining political savvy whatsoever, it would immediately fire Mr. Soechting as chairman and denounce the rumor campaign against Governor Perry. With the paucity of statesmen that exist in either state or national politics, how can the political parties expect to attract the men and women with the potential to become statesmen when the parties encourage this type defamation of public figures?
One other observation is in order for the bloggers who have been circulating these rumors. Many of these blogs contain interesting information and provocative insights. However, they undermine their most important quality -- i.e., credibility -- when they engage in the type of rumor mill that they have engaged in with regard to Governor Perry. Once you have lost your credibility, you have lost your ability to persuade, which means that you are left to discuss matters only with people who agree with you. That is a tremendously limiting experience.
Posted by Tom at 7:48 AM
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March 2, 2004
Primary races for state judgeships
Texas' system of judicial elections is not a good way to choose judges. For over 20 years, I have been supporting a new system for appointing judges in the Texas state courts similar to the appointment process that is used in the federal judicial system. That process has produced a superior federal judiciary.
Although a growing number of Texans agree that elections are not the best way to choose judges, the tendency in Texas politics is for the party in control of the statehouse to support the current system because most of the elected judges are from that party. Inasmuch as the Republicans are now solidly in control of Texas state government, the GOP state leaders are in no hurry to change a flawed system that nevertheless produces judges mainly from their party.
That is unfortunate. Virtually no Texas citizen knows all of the best candidates for the various judicial positions. For example, even though I have an active civil trial practice in both Harris and Montgomery Counties, I rely on the opinions of friends who practice criminal law to advise me regarding the best candidates for the criminal judgeships because I do not practice much in the criminal courts. Moreover, most lawyers are not trial lawyers, so even they have no experience on which to base an informed judgment about the best judicial candidates. Generally, lay people do not have the foggiest notion of who to select in Texas judicial races. Most folks simply look for a familiar name or two, sigh, and just make the best guess possible under the circumstances. Not exactly a sterling example of democracy at work.
As a result of the foregoing, family members, friends, and clients often ask me for my recommendation on the best candidates in the various state and county judicial races. Most of these races will be decided in the upcoming Republican Primary because of the paucity of Democratic Party candidates for these positions in the fall election. Accordingly, the following are my recommendations in the upcoming Republican Primary races:
Statewide: Supreme Court of Texas, Place 5: Paul Green.Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 2: Guy James Gray.
Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 5:Patricia Noble.
Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 6:Michael E. Keasler.Harris County
14th Court of Appeals: Eva Guzman.281st District Court: David Bernal.
334th District Court: Reece Rondon.
Appointed incumbents running for election for the first time, both of these judges are young and smart, and both possessed solid experience in private practice before taking the bench. We are fortunate to have young lawyers of this caliber on the bench.177th Criminal District Court:: Adam Brown.
228th Criminal District Court: Clint Greenwood.Montgomery County
1st Court of Appeals: Charles Kreger410th District Court: Michael Mayes
This race is a good example of the flawed Texas judicial election system. Judge Mayes is a first rate trial judge, puts cases to trial, and thus promotes prompt resolution of cases in his court. Texas needs to be supporting good lawyers who are willing to make the sacrifices necessary to be a judge, not requiring them to incur the cost of a re-election campaign.
Early voting is going on right now, so get out and cast your vote!
Posted by Tom at 7:16 PM
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February 29, 2004
The similiarities between Enron and U.S. Govt. financing
A substantial part of the Justice Department's criminal cases against former Enron executives Jeff Skilling and Richard Causey involves their complicity in Enron's liberal use of "off-balance sheet" partnerships that Enron used to shift risk on debt that otherwise would have diluted Enron's net worth. In an ironic twist, history professor Niall Ferguson and economist Laurence Kotlikoff explain in this insightful paper how the United States Government uses the same off balance sheet liabilities in accounting for its Medicare and Social Security liabilities to mask the true financial condition of the Government. The entire paper is well worth reading, and here are a couple of tidbits:
During the Clinton Administration, the CBO routinely projected that, regardless of inflation or economic growth, the federal government would spend precisely the same number of dollars, year in and year out, on everything apart from . . . entitlements. At the same time, the CBO confidently assumed federal taxes would grow at roughly 6 percent each year. As a result, it was able to make dizzying forecasts of budget surpluses . . . These phantom surpluses were the money Al Gore promised to spend on voters and George W. Bush promised to return to them during the 2000 election.[T]he crisis of the American welfare state remains a latent one. Few people, least of all in the government, wish to believe it is real. But the crisis could manifest itself with dramatic suddenness if there is a significant shift in the expectations of financial markets at home or abroad. And when the finances of the United States "go critical," there will inevitably be moves to cut back any federal program that lacks strong popular support. Though relatively inexpensive, and not in themselves a cause of American overstretch, "nation-building" projects in far-away countries will surely be among the first things to be axed.
Messrs. Ferguson and Laurence Kotlikoff also argue that our politicial leaders, the public, and bond market investors are all in denial about the large future liabilities that the government faces. This is provocative economic analysis and essential reading for anyone interested in understanding the financing of our government's future liabilities.
Posted by Tom at 12:40 PM
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February 27, 2004
VDH's latest
Victor Davis Hanson's latest column at National Review Online addresses America's supposedly new preemption policy in its overall foreign policy. Mr. Hanson observes in a part of his piece:
Despite the current vogue of questionable and therapeutic ideas like "zero tolerance" and "moral equivalence" that punish all who use force ? whether in kindergarten or in the Middle East ? striking first is a morally neutral concept. It takes on its ethical character from the landscape in which it takes place ? the Israelis bombing the Iraqi reactor to avoid being blackmailed by a soon-to-be nuclear Saddam Hussein, or the French going into the Ivory Coast last year, despite the fact that that chaotic country posed no immediate danger to Paris. The thing to keep in mind is that the real aggressor, by his past acts, has already invited war and will do so again ? should he be allowed to choose his own time and place of assault.Hitler was ruthless in starting a war against Poland. Yet he could have been stopped far earlier in 1936 or so ? had the democracies preempted him. Indeed, a failure to preempt is often far worse than the act itself. Serbia posed no "imminent" threat to the United States in 1998; but President Clinton ? with no U.N. sanction, no U.S. Congress resolution ? finally decided to act and end that cancer before it spread beyond the Balkans.
Posted by Tom at 10:15 AM
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Rise and fall of a 'Haitian Mandela'
This Christian Science Monitor article details the signs that Jean-Bertrand Aristide was doomed to failure as President of Haiti. The CSM notes:
How a man hailed as a potential Nelson Mandela for his impoverished and oppressed nation of 8 million could fall so far appears to be as much a tale of wishful thinking by desperate Haitians and the international community that backed him, say experts, as it was a tale of the old cliché that "absolute power corrupts absolutely."Aristide was given that rarest of political gifts - a second chance. But, reinstalled in the presidency in October 1994 by a multinational military force, he used his resurrection to perfect an autocratic style, say even those close to him who were interviewed for this story.
Today, having infuriated, humiliated, and - some allege, killed - any once-devoted followers who crossed him, Aristide has few political allies left. Even his strongest credential - his election to a second term in 2000 - counts little as rebels gobble up territory and threaten to take the capital.
Languishing in that familiar pre-coup limbo that is a trademark of modern Haitian presidencies, Aristide is a symbol of a political culture that has been bankrupt nearly since it began as a slave revolt 200-plus years ago. . .
Posted by Tom at 7:43 AM
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February 26, 2004
Gore's Revenge
Comedian Argus Hamilton is offering a strategy that would give Al Gore sweet revenge for Ralph Nader's costing him the 2000 Presidential election while guaranteeing that Mr. Nader wouldn't collect enough Democratic votes to alter this year's election outcome. "There's only one way Al Gore can get even with Ralph Nader," Mr. Hamilton advises. "He's got to wait for the crucial moment in the campaign and then endorse him."
Posted by Tom at 5:43 PM
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DeLay records subpoenaed
As noted in earlier posts here and here, a political action committee ? Texans for a Republican Majority ? that House majority leader Tom DeLay of Houston created is the subject of a grand jury investigation in Austin. Yesterday, the Travis County District Attorney's office released information on over 50 subpoenas that it has issued in the investigation over possible criminal misuse of corporate funds in the 2002 legislative campaign. Here is the Chronicle article on this development.
Posted by Tom at 6:32 AM
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February 25, 2004
What a surprise! (just joking)
A recent study shows that United States Senators stock portfolios regularly outperformed the market by an average of 12% a year.
Posted by Tom at 10:22 AM
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Harvard Prof on Gay Marriage
Harvard University Law Professor Mary Ann Glendon has a Wall Street Journal op-ed ($) today that addresses several important issues that are often overshadowed by the supporters' casting of the debate as one over civil rights issues:
Those judges are here in Massachusetts, of course, where the state is cutting back on programs to aid the elderly, the disabled, and children in poor families. Yet a four-judge majority has ruled in favor of special benefits for a group of relatively affluent households, most of which have two earners and are not raising children. What same-sex marriage advocates have tried to present as a civil rights issue is really a bid for special preferences of the type our society gives to married couples for the very good reason that most of them are raising or have raised children. Now, in the wake of the Massachusetts case, local officials in other parts of the nation have begun to issue marriage licenses to homosexual couples in defiance of state law.A common initial reaction to these local measures has been: "Why should I care whether same-sex couples can get married?" "How will that affect me or my family?" "Why not just live and let live?" But as people began to take stock of the implications of granting special treatment to one group of citizens, the need for a federal marriage amendment has become increasingly clear. As President Bush said yesterday, "The voice of the people must be heard."
Indeed, the American people should have the opportunity to deliberate the economic and social costs of this radical social experiment. Astonishingly, in the media coverage of this issue, next to nothing has been said about what this new special preference would cost the rest of society in terms of taxes and insurance premiums.
The Canadian government, which is considering same-sex marriage legislation, has just realized that retroactive social-security survivor benefits alone would cost its taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars. There is a real problem of distributive justice here. How can one justify treating same-sex households like married couples when such benefits are denied to all the people in our society who are caring for elderly or disabled relatives whom they cannot claim as family members for tax or insurance purposes? Shouldn't citizens have a chance to vote on whether they want to give homosexual unions, most of which are childless, the same benefits that society gives to married couples, most of whom have raised or are raising children?
Posted by Tom at 7:43 AM
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February 24, 2004
Incompetence defined
As noted earlier in this post, the street rebuilding project that has been going on in downtown Houston during almost the entire administration of former Mayor Lee Brown has been one of the mostly poorly managed public works projects in recent Houston history. This Chronicle article gives a good example of the legacy of this mess that new Mayor Bill White has inherited.
Posted by Tom at 9:31 AM
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February 22, 2004
Civil liberties and the War on Terror
Ethan Bronner, deputy foreign editor of the NY Times, has a review in today's New York Times Book Review on several recent books that share a central theme -- i.e., that the War on Terror combined with Attorney General John Ashcroft, as one book put it, ''are responsible for some of the most egregious civil liberties violations in the history of our nation.'' Mr. Bronner is much more measured than that statement, and the entire article is well worth reading. Here are a couple of tidbits:
If you believe these changes are eroding the liberties that make this nation great, these books are for you. They will give texture and sharpness to your rage. You can pick from among them based on your level of concern. If you are incensed, go for the Brown essay collection, ''Lost Liberties.'' In it, Aryeh Neier says, ''We are at risk of entering another of those dark periods of American history when the country abandons its proud tradition of respect for civil liberties.'' And Nancy Chang of the Center for Constitutional Rights says that executive measures taken in the wake of the Patriot Act ''are responsible for some of the most egregious civil liberties violations in the history of our nation.'' Given the suspension of the writ of habeas corpus during the Civil War, the Palmer raids in World War I and the internment of Japanese-Americans in World War II, both of these statements seem to me hard to defend.Of course, one legitimate complaint that Ashcroft and many others could lodge against nearly all these books is that they fail to spend any time on the threat to liberty not from Ashcroft but from Al Qaeda. Liberty is meaningless without security, as Viet Dinh, the former assistant attorney general who wrote much of the Patriot Act, has often said. Stuart Taylor Jr., a legal journalist, put it this way in The National Journal in December 2002: ''Should we eschew fishing expeditions through Ryder truck rental records and fertilizer purchases? Not if we want to prevent terrorist mass murders. And I, for one, am a lot less worried about the government snooping through my credit card bills and psychiatric records than about being anthraxed in the subway or killed by a nuclear explosion in my downtown Washington office.'' While this strikes me as too far in the other direction, such words are useful to keep in mind while reading of Ashcroft's sins.
Posted by Tom at 12:57 PM
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February 20, 2004
Austin grand jury subpoenas House speaker's campaign contribution records
As noted in an earlier post, a political action committee ? Texans for a Republican Majority ? that House majority leader Tom DeLay of Houston created is the subject of a grand jury investigation in Austin. Yesterday, the Chronicle and the Austin American Statesman report that the investigation turned to Texas House Speaker Tom Craddick and six other Republican lawmakers Thursday as Travis County prosecutors subpoenaed records of the speaker's race. the primary issue in the investigation is whether Texans for a Republican Majority improperly used corporate contributions to help finance the campaigns of more than 20 Republican candidates for the Texas House of Representatives in 2002. Campaign finance watchdog organizations believe the investigation will affect whether "soft money" ? that is, unlimited contributions from corporations, unions and wealthy individuals ? will become a primary financing source for state and local elections.
Posted by Tom at 7:23 AM
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February 18, 2004
President Bush and his National Guard service
For those interested in a thorough analysis of President Bush's service record in the Air National Guard, you should read this Bryon York article. If you prefer to criticize the President on this issue regardless of the facts pertaining to his Air National Guard service, then you should ignore Mr. York's article.
Meanwhile, Phil Carter of the Intel Dump blog pens this objective Chicago Tribune op-ed on why President Bush's Air National Guard service record matters as a campaign issue.
Posted by Tom at 8:22 PM
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February 16, 2004
DeLay created PAC under investigation
The NY Times reports that a political action committee ? Texans for a Republican Majority ? that House majority leader Tom DeLay of Houston created is the subject of a grand jury investigation in Austin. The investigation follows a complaint filed with the Travis County District Attorney last year by Texans for Public Justice campaign watchdog group.
According to sources for the Times article, the primary issue in the investigation is whether Texans for a Republican Majority improperly used corporate contributions to help finance the campaigns of more than 20 Republican candidates for the Texas House of Representatives in 2002.
Campaign finance watchdog organizations believe the investigation will affect whether "soft money" ? that is, unlimited contributions from corporations, unions and wealthy individuals ? will become a primary financing source for state and local elections.
Posted by Tom at 9:50 AM
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February 15, 2004
WaPo calls for clarity from Kerry
This pragmatic Washington Post editorial (free registration required) calls on Senator Kerry to clarify his position on several key issues, including the following:
The most important confusion surrounds Mr. Kerry's position on Iraq. In 1991 he voted against the first Persian Gulf War, saying more support was needed from Americans for a war that he believed would prove costly. In 1998, when President Clinton was considering military steps against Iraq, he strenuously argued for action, with or without allies. Four years later he voted for a resolution authorizing invasion but criticized Mr. Bush for not recruiting allies. Last fall he voted against funding for Iraqi reconstruction, but argued that the United States must support the establishment of a democratic government.Mr. Kerry's attempts to weave a thread connecting and justifying all these positions are unconvincing. He would do better to offer a more honest accounting. His estimation of the cost of expelling Iraq from Kuwait in 1991 was simply wrong; and if President Bush was mistaken to think in 2003 that there was an urgent need to stop Saddam Hussein from stockpiling weapons of mass destruction, Mr. Kerry made the same error in 1998.
Posted by Tom at 1:37 PM
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February 14, 2004
Army Intelligence agents investigate UT Islamic women's conference
The Austin American-Statesman (registration required) reports that University of Texas law students, lawyers and civil rights advocates are contending that Army Intelligence questioning of people on the UT campus in Austin was an unjustified attempt to dampen free speech on the campus. The agents visited the UT Law School this past Monday to request a list of participants in a Feb. 4 conference at the UT Law School on women's issues in Muslim countries. When informed that the conference was open to all citizens and that no such list existed, the agents interviewed students and asked for the contact information of the female who organized the conference.
Although the investigation of this conference is perhaps a bit over the top, the self-righteous reaction of some UT students and faculty members is even more so. The United States is at war, and reasonable intrusions on U.S. citizens' civil liberties during war time are legal. Denouncing intelligence agents publicly simply because they are doing their job reflects a widespread attitude in current American society that it is unnecessary to sacrifice for the war effort. I am quite glad that the parents and grandparents of these UT students and faculty members did not have the same attitude during WWII.
Posted by Tom at 10:56 AM
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Interesting Death Penalty Analysis
The NY Times reports today on an interesting study in the Journal of Empirical Legal Studies that concludes that Texas, generally thought to be the death penalty capital of the U.S., actually sentences a smaller percentage of people convicted of murder to death than the national average because the conventional view fails to take into account the large number of murders in Texas.
"Texas' reputation as a death-prone state should rest on its many murders and on its willingness to execute death-sentenced inmates," wrote the authors of the study, "It should not rest on the false belief that Texas has a high rate of sentencing convicted murderers to death."
As a percentage of murders, Nevada and Oklahoma impose the most death sentences, at 6 and 5.1 percent. In Texas, the percentage is 2 percent. The rate in Virginia, another state noted for its commitment to capital punishment, is 1.3 percent. The national average is 2.5 percent; the median is 2 percent.
Using the same analysis, the study concluded that blacks are actually underrepresented on the nation's death row in that blacks commit 51.5 percent of all murders nationally, but only comprise 42 percent of death row inmates.
Posted by Tom at 10:28 AM
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February 12, 2004
LBJ and JFK
One of the most perplexing stories recently is this one pertaining to the documentary that The History Channel recently ran regarding conspiracy theories that link the late former President Lyndon Johnson to the assassination of the late President John F. Kennedy.
What is most perplexing about this story is that it appears that no one at The History Channel performed even the slightest amount of research on the subject of this documentary before allowing it to air. If they had, then they would have read Gerald Posner's 1994 classic "Case Closed," which is the definitive book on the Kennedy Assassination. In that book, Mr. Posner systematically and dispositively debunks each one of the conspiracy theories that have been promoted over the years regarding the Kennedy Assassination and describes in an equal amount of detail how Lee Harvey Oswald pulled off the assassination by himself. That The History Channel allowed the foregoing documentary to air without at least a rebuttal from someone of Mr. Posner's stature is a serious affront to President Johnson's legacy and the Johnson Family.
Posted by Tom at 5:21 PM
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February 11, 2004
Cheney-Scalia Hunting Trip
Jay Leno last night in his monologue on The Tonight Show:
"This is unbelievable to me. Vice President Dick Cheney went duck hunting with Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, private jet, you know, a hunting reserve up in the mountains.
And Scalia went with him while the Supreme Court is still deciding a case involving Dick Cheney's energy task force. Cheney said today there is no conflict of interest.
And just to be sure, he said as soon as Halliburton finishes construction of Justice Scalia's new home, he will look into it personally to make sure there is no problem."
Posted by Tom at 9:14 PM
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Wes Clark says goodbye
As noted in this earlier post, Ryan Lizza of the New Republic Online has been writing a terrific blog from the Democratic Party presidential campaign trail. Today's entry focuses on the demise of the Wes Clark Campaign, which one Democratic pundit characterized as "Michael Jordan playing baseball."
Posted by Tom at 7:16 PM
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February 10, 2004
Kerry writing to the Tehran Times?
In a time when our country is at war, this article is simply an excellent example of remarkably poor judgment. Thanks to Glenn Reynolds at Instapundit for the link.
Posted by Tom at 6:18 PM
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Gore goes over the top
Al Gore's increasing irrelevancy was noted in this earlier post. But is this his idea for being taken seriously again?
Word to serious Democratic presidential candidates: Steer clear of this loose cannon.
Posted by Tom at 9:35 AM
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February 9, 2004
By the way, remember that guy Gore?
It's a bit difficult to recall a figure of national stature falling as quickly as Al Gore. This article details how Gore's endorsement of Howard Dean ended up being the booby prize for Dean. My sense is that Gore's abysmal treatment of his 2000 running mate Joe Lieberman during this campaign season reflects Gore's true character.
Posted by Tom at 7:03 PM
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February 6, 2004
Bob Dole Speaks Up
Although Bob Dole's 1996 presidential campaign was one of the worst of the past quarter-century, he was an outstanding senator and is a great American. In today's Wall Street Journal, Mr. Dole weighs in insightfully on recent criticism of President Bush's military service:
On Fox News recently, my friend John Kerry stated: "I've never made any judgments about any choice somebody made about avoiding the draft, about going to Canada, going to jail, being a conscientious objector, going into the National Guard."Sen. Kerry did make a judgment, in 1992, when Bill Clinton -- who did not serve -- was running against Sen. Bob Kerrey, a Vietnam veteran. After Bob Kerrey criticized Gov. Clinton, John Kerry said, "We do not need to divide America over who served and how." He should stick to his previous position by acknowledging the honorable service of President Bush and the hundreds of thousands of other National Guard members defending America every day. The president piloted an F-102 in the National Guard and received an honorable discharge when his requirements were met.
Democratic Party Chairman Terry McAuliffe also said last Sunday that service in the National Guard wasn't service "in the military."
These attacks are offensive. Service in the National Guard is one of the finest things any citizen can do, and there are tens of thousands of guardsmen and women serving our country today all over the world. Thousands are serving in Iraq, and some of those have made the supreme sacrifice in the service of their country.
It should be incumbent upon presidential candidates to disavow accusations that have no proof or substance behind them. Gen. Wesley Clark learned the price of irresponsibility the hard way as thousands of voters deserted him in the weeks since he intimated President Bush might have been a deserter. Enough.
Sen. Kerry is a war hero, but if campaigns were about war records, I would have won easily in 1996. Campaigns are about issues, and the candidates of both parties owe the American people a compelling vision for the future of America.
In a related Seattle Times editorial, Collin Levey makes the accurate point that, among a political candidate's attributes, military service is generally overrated.
Posted by Tom at 7:24 AM
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February 5, 2004
Campaign Reporting on Steroids
The NY Times has put together a blog for the 2004 Presidential Campaign that is continuously updated. It is reported and edited from the Times' Washington bureau. The "Trail Mix" section highlights issues, candidates, and regions. In the meantime, The Daily Show is maintaining a clever website called "Indecision 2004", which is a humorous take on the 2004 Presidential campaign. As host comedian Jon Stewart puts it, "We're to the news what malt liquor is to reality." Good stuff for you political junkies.
Posted by Tom at 8:01 PM
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February 4, 2004
Good News for Downtown Houston
The Houston Chronicle is reporting that New Houston Mayor Bill White has announced a delay in the Smith Street rebuilding project in downtown Houston. The downtown street rebuilding project in Houston was begun early in former Mayor Lee Brown's administration, and it may have been the most badly botched public works project in the city's history. It's a good move for Mayor White to attempt to get this mess under control before tearing up Smith Street, one of the main arteries in downtown Houston.
Posted by Tom at 8:40 PM
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Another Auchwitz?
WaPo's Anne Applebaum writes a troubling report on an issue that the U.S. also avoided confronting--with disastrous results--in the late 1930's and early 1940's
Posted by Tom at 8:29 PM
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Sometimes They Do Get it Right
The U.S. intelligence community has endured much criticism since 9/11. For example, Gerald Posner's "Why America Slept" is an excellent account of the background and result of the intelligence failures that preceded the 9/11 attacks.
However, in this clever piece from the NY Times, William Safire tells an interesting story about an intelligence operation that was a resounding success and reminds us that intelligence agencies perform an essential service. Thanks to my old friend Don Looper for the tip on Safire's piece.
Posted by Tom at 11:12 AM
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The Clark Campaign
This Thomas Meaney piece is an interesting perspective on the Democratic candidates to date, particularly Wesley Clark.
Posted by Tom at 8:12 AM
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Great Quotes
From Ryan Lizza's campaign journal at The New Republic, on the difference between the Howard Dean and John Edwards' campaigns:
"If Dean's events sometimes look like the bar scene from Star Wars, Edwards's traveling show has the feel of an Abercrombie and Fitch fashion shoot."
And James T. Hamilton, describing his theory of rational ignorance in his new book, "All the News That's Fit to Sell":
"The logic of rational ignorance predicts that many viewers will not choose to learn about politics and government, a logic confirmed every day by the relatively low audience for The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer on PBS."
Posted by Tom at 7:38 AM
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