June 30, 2008
Continuing to suspend reality on financing the soccer stadium
This earlier post addressed the economic absurdity of having financially-strapped Texas Southern University make an investment in the long-proposed Houston Dynamo downtown soccer stadium.
However, why is it that common sense seems to evaporate into thin air whenever either TSU or the soccer stadium is mentioned? Buried in this Chronicle article about TSU's failure to prepare its students adequately to pass state licensing examinations is the following gem of analysis on TSU's proposed investment in the Dynamo stadium:
TSU President John Rudley and athletic director Charles McClelland also gave an early report on negotiations to share a new stadium with the Dynamo, Houston's professional soccer team.
McClelland said the proposed $105 million stadium would seat 21,000. In exchange for a $2.5 million investment, TSU would get a 20-year lease, a locker room, 50 percent of concession sales and 100 percent of the profit on TSU merchandise sold there, he said.
The deal is preliminary, and regents won't vote for a while. The stadium won't be completed until 2010 or 2011, he said.
McClelland, on the job just a few months, said the deal would be a good investment for the university, whose football team plays mostly at the University of Houston's Robertson Stadium, at a cost of $40,000 a game.
The Tigers occasionally rent Reliant Stadium, which costs $115,000 a game, he said.
Investing in a new stadium would be cheaper in the long term, he said.
TSU has a stadium, but it seats only 4,500 — too small for the competitive football program McClelland has promised to build — and lacks the amenities people expect.
Let's see now. In return for pre-paid rent of $2.5 million (which TSU really doesn't have to throw around right now), TSU gets a 20-year lease, 50% of concession sales (on only its games or on all events of any type?), a locker room, 100% of TSU merchandise sales and a pink slip at the end of the 20-year lease term. I hope that locker room is really nice.
Meanwhile, without paying a dime up front, TSU can continue to lease Robertson Stadium on the University of Houston campus for about $200,000 per year (5 home games x $40,000) or $4 million over a 20-year term. While playing at Robertson, TSU could invest the $2.5 million that it wouldn't have to pay the Dynamo and easily generate at least another $2.5 million off that investment over the 20-year lease term. At the end of 20 years of playing at Robertson, TSU would have a net surplus of at least $1 million to play with.
So, in view of the foregoing, my question is this: How could any reasonably responsible TSU leader even consider using the scant existing financial resources of that institution to invest in the Dynamo soccer stadium?
Perhaps the answer is revealed in the last paragraph of the Chron article:
Regents cautioned Rudley and McClelland to make sure TSU has good representation in the negotiations. "They're sharks," Javier Loya said of the Dynamo's leadership.
Update: Some folks actually think this is a good deal for TSU!
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June 21, 2008
Comparing boondoggles
Warren Meyer has some fun commenting on the latest Phoenix-area urban boondoggle -- a three-quarter of a billion dollar state subsidy for an amusement park in the Arizona desert!
Of course, that subsidy is peanuts in comparison to the subsidy that Houston is gearing up to pay in connection with this local boondoggle (see also here and here). Why invest billions in an inflexible light rail system in a region that is not densely-populated, contains numerous and dispersed employment centers and possesses an excellent freeway system that would facilitate a far cheaper and more effective bus system?
In this recent post about the Miami transit system, Randal O'Toole sums up the common characteristics of light rail systems in areas without the density of population to generate the ridership necessary to make them economically viable:
1. Transit agencies might run excellent bus systems. But when they start building rail, they quickly get in over their heads by optimistic forecasts, unforeseen costs, and the sheer humongous expense of building dedicated transit lines.
2. Though all rail systems require periodic expensive maintenance, few transit agencies set aside any money for this because it is easier to spend the money now and let future managers worry about the future.
3. Though the rail systems are usually built to serve downtown white-collar workers, in the end it is the transit-dependent people who rely on buses who pay the cost.
4. There is only one thing rails can do that buses can’t do better, faster, and more flexibly, and that is spend a lot of your money.
The enormous cost relative to usage and inflexibility of most light rail systems reminds me of something that USC urban economist Peter Gordon observed a couple of years ago about the political forces that support these boondoggles. Some are disingenuous promoters seeking to profit from the rail lines, others pose as high-minded environmentalists and many are simply ignorant of the inefficiency and inflexibility of such systems. Professor Gordon wryly points out:
"It adds up to a winning coalition."
Professor Gordon provides more recent perspective here.
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June 4, 2008
Slugging Metro?
I'd bet that a program such as this (H/T Craig Newmark) would rival (if not exceed) the ridership on Houston Metro's light rail line.
Slugging is a term used to describe a unique form of commuting found in the Washington, DC area sometimes referred to as "Instant Carpooling" or "Casual Carpooling". It's unique because people commuting into the city stop to pickup other passengers even though they are total strangers! However, slugging is a very organized system with its own set of rules, proper etiquette, and specific pickup and drop-off locations. It has thousands of vehicles at its disposal, moves thousands of commuters daily, and the best part, it’s FREE! Not only is it free, but it gets people to and from work faster than the typical bus, metro, or train. I think you'll find that it is the most efficient, cost-effective form of commuting in the nation.
Here is the etiquette and rules of the process. Being a "slug" doesn't sound all that bad! ;^)
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June 1, 2008
The price of soccer keeps going up
Based on what's going on in Washington, D.C., my prediction on the eventual public subsidy of the proposed Dynamo soccer stadium in Houston may be a tad low. With D.C.'s proposed $150 million public subsidy for about 25,000 seats, that works out to $6,000 per seat for what amounts to minor league soccer. Is there any rational argument that such an outlay could possibly be worth it for D.C. citizens?
By the way, Dennis Coates, the professor of economics at the University of Maryland-Baltimore County whose recent op-ed on public subsidies for stadiums was featured here, narrates the short Reason.TV video below on the same subject, focusing on the Washington Nationals new stadium (H/T Skip Sauer) :
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May 27, 2008
Checking out Houston on the tour bus
Randal O'Toole went on a bus tours of different parts of Houston while he was in town for the Preserving the American Dream Conference a couple of weeks ago and he chronicles his impressions with observations here (neighborhoods between downtown and the Galleria area) and here (one of the Houston area's several master-planned communities, Sienna Plantation). Upon finishing the tour of Sienna, O'Toole commented on the trip back to his downtown hotel:
After finishing up our tour of Sienna, we took the Fort Bend Parkway, one of the region’s many toll roads, back to Houston. This 6.2-mile, four-lane highway required just over a year to build and opened in 2004 at a cost of $60 million. That’s less than $2.5 million per lane mile, including on- and off-ramps, over- and underpasses, and toll facilities. By comparison, $60 million would barely get you one mile of light rail and less than a mile of heavy rail. The toll for the 6.2 miles was $2, even for our full-sized buses.
And compare that to this!
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May 14, 2008
The Chron's continuing soccer stadium drumbeat
In this post from last week on the proposed downtown soccer stadium, I observed that the Chronicle should simply declare that it supports the public financing of the stadium and quit attempting to rationalize that such financing makes economic sense.
Well, based on this Glenn Davis/Chronicle column, it looks as if the Chronicle took me up on my suggestion.
Actually, Davis' column is about as good a rationalization for the public financing of the soccer stadium as you will come across. He eschews the economic-benefit ruse and instead contends that it's worth spending public money on the Dynamo because the club represents the city well internationally, particularly in Mexico and Central America. On the other hand, Davis stretches by suggesting that "the team deserves its own stadium [because it] would elevate the sport and city even more in the eyes of the world."
Just to be clear -- there is nothing inherently wrong with public financing of sports stadiums. Davis might even have a valid point that it's worth using public funds to invest in the Dynamo to bolster Houston's image internationally, although it would seem that at least some consideration should be given to alternative investments before coming to the conclusion that financing a soccer stadium is the best way to achieve that goal. But let's at least have truth in advertising during the remaining public discussion on this issue -- the marginal economic benefit of a soccer stadium to the community is simply not a good reason to finance it publicly.
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May 9, 2008
Suspending reality on financing the soccer stadium
Look, I realize that the reasoning in support of public financing for the proposed Houston Dynamo soccer stadium has not been particularly rational. But this Chronicle article takes the cake in terms of suspending reality. Chron reporters Bernando Fallas and Bill Murphy breathlessly suggest that financially-troubled Texas Southern University -- which is currently seeking $40 million in emergency legislative funding simply to keep the lights on -- is a serious player to make up at least a portion of the gap between the private and public financing on the deal:
Forget soccer-specific. The Dynamo would be thrilled to call their proposed stadium football-specific or even fútbol-specific.
Either way would be accurate — soccer is known as football almost everywhere else in the world — if the Dynamo can get Texas Southern University to join negotiations with the city of Houston toward the construction of a $105 million facility just east of downtown that would be home to the two-time defending MLS champions and TSU athletics, primarily the Tigers' football team.
By the looks of things, TSU is prepared to do just that.
Two weeks after he first expressed interest in the project and a couple of meetings and phone conversations later, newly appointed TSU athletic director Charles McClelland said the school is willing to invest in the construction of the 22,000-capacity stadium in exchange for the rights to use it. [. . .]
Of course, the article is utterly devoid of details, such as how TSU is going to find any money to throw at this deal, much less make a multi-million dollar investment in it. Heck, the TSU athletic director and the Dynamo's president haven't even met yet, so it doesn't even appear that Dynamo management takes TSU's involvement seriously. Why don't the Chronicle editors just come out and say that they really want the city to finance the downtown soccer stadium and spare us such vapid articles as this one? Gosh, it's gotten so bad that even normally common sense bloggers are giving in to this silliness.
Meanwhile, J.R. Taylor over at PoliSci@UST runs circles around the Chronicle's reporting on the soccer stadium financing with this well-reasoned post that actually addresses facts regarding public financing of stadiums. Yet another example of how the blogosphere is trumping the mainstream media in terms of providing coherent analysis of important issues.
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April 30, 2008
Examining stadium subsidies
As if on cue for the soccer stadium financing issues currently being discussed on the local scene, Dennis Coates provides this excellent op-ed in The American on the dubious nature of municipal stadium subsidies:
Clearly, stadiums built with public funds have evolved over time. No longer are they built to honor the sacrifices of American soldiers. No longer are they built to be flexible venues capable of hosting a great variety of events. And no longer does the public sector determine the appropriate price to charge private enterprise for use of this publicly supplied resource. Today, sports stadiums are largely the private domain of for-profit businesses that the public sector subsidizes, often with special taxes. [. . .]
Over time, both the purpose and the real cost of public support for stadiums and arenas have changed. It may be that the subsidies state and local governments provide for stadium and arena construction and operation are justified by the community benefits those facilities provide. But the evidence says otherwise. [. . .]
My own research, conducted with economist Brad Humphreys . . . finds that the professional sports environment—which includes the presence of franchises in multiple sports, the arrival or departure of teams, and stadium construction—may actually reduce local incomes. For example, we found that the overall sports environment reduced per capita personal income, a finding that was new in the economic literature at the time we published it (1999). We also found that, in many local economies, wages and employment in the retail and services sectors have dropped because of professional sports. [. . .]
Of course, even if the benefits of stadiums and arenas cover the subsidies, the subsidies still may not be sound policy. First, there may be enormous variation in the distribution of the consumption and public-good benefits. It is clear that not all citizens in a community benefit equally from the presence of professional sports franchises in their city. Indeed, because the tax revenues used for the subsidies are often generated from lotteries and sales taxes whose burden falls disproportionately on the poor, while the consumption benefits go mostly to relatively wealthy sports fans, the net benefits are distributed regressively. Second, we should consider the net benefits to the community of alternative uses of the funds spent subsidizing sports facilities. Good policy means using the money where the net benefit is greatest, not simply where the net benefit is positive. That’s something state and local governments should keep in mind before pledging millions of dollars to fund the next new stadium project. And it’s something Congress should remember when evaluating the future of U.S. tax policy.
Are you listening, Mayor White?
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April 22, 2008
Mayor White's management
Help me out here. I'm really trying to understand the basis of the perception among a large number of Houstonians that Mayor Bill White is an effective manager.
For example, this earlier post summarized Mayor White's dubious decision-making in regard to having the city buy expensive and not particularly well-located downtown land for the new Houston Dynamo soccer stadium. Not only did the city already own nearby property that is a better location for the stadium, Mayor White pushed through the land acquisition despite not having a binding commitment from the soccer club owners on the amount of their contribution to the cost of the stadium's construction.
Given the foregoing, who except Mayor White was surprised last week when Major League Soccer (which is really just a minor soccer league) sent a letter to the Dynamo owners that was (again, surprise!) passed along to Mayor White that threatens to relocate the Dynamo if a satisfactory stadium deal isn't reached? For good measure, MLS and Dynamo officials informed the city that the estimated price of the stadium has increased from $90 million to $105 million and that some MLS cities have contributed as much as 90% of the cost of similar stadiums.
So, what was Mayor White's reaction? Tell these minor leaguers to take a hike to Corpus Christi or Beaumont? Apologize to the citizens for having the city lay out $15-20 million for property that it doesn't need? Promise that he won't get taken to the cleaners again in negotiations with minor league sports club owners? No, Mayor White did his best tough guy imitation:
"I've gotten a little bit of a reputation, probably deserved, that I don't respond well to threats," he said. "I smiled."
If Mayor White is smiling, then imagine what the MLS and Dynamo officials are doing after the way in which those minor leaguers have had their way with Mayor Bill in these negotiations?
The only good news about all this is that the $50-75 million that the city will probably end up dropping over this soccer stadium boondoggle represents only about a couple of months of losses of this much larger boondoggle, which -- you guessed it -- Mayor White strongly supports. And those aren't the only questionable management decisions that the Mayor has made during his tenure (for example, see here, here, here and here).
How much longer can Houston afford Bill White?
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April 11, 2008
Remember Kelo?
Check out this recent Second Circuit decision (H/T to Robert Loblaw) as an example of how the appellate courts are applying the U.S. Supreme Court's controversial 2006 decision in Kelo v. New London. Kelo allows the state to seize private property to facilitate private re-development as a legitimate form of "public use" under the U.S. Constitution.
Kelo has been widely criticized for creating perverse incentives for politically well-connected real estate developers to exercise their political clout where negotiation with private property owners didn't generate the developers' desired result. The Second Circuit case involves the huge redevelopment plan in downtown Brooklyn that will primarily benefit Bruce Ratner, a wealthy New York real estate developer. In addition to the ubiquitous office buildings and high-rise condos involved in such deals, the redevelopment will include a new arena for the New Jersey (soon to be Brooklyn) Nets NBA basketball club. Although most of the property to be contributed to the development is public land, the redevelopment plan also requires the state to seize several tracts of private property through exercise of its eminent domain power.
The private property owners sued and argued that the state's claim of public benefit is a facade, as the Second Circuit puts it, "to benefit Bruce Ratner, the man whose company first proposed it and who serves as the Project’s primary developer. Ratner is also the principal owner of the New Jersey Nets. In short, the plaintiffs argue that all of the 'public uses' the defendants have advanced for the Project are pretexts for a private taking that violates the Fifth Amendment."
The Second Circuit upheld U.S. District Court dismissal of the property owners' claims, explaining that the massive private benefits to Ratner do not trump the state's judgment that the project will also benefit the public. Moreover, even though the costs to the property owners may far outweigh the public benefits, the Second Circuit concludes that type of cost/benefit analysis is irrelevant under Kelo:
At the end of the day, we are left with the distinct impression that the lawsuit is animated by concerns about the wisdom of the Atlantic Yards Project and its effect on the community. While we can well understand why the affected property owners would take this opportunity to air their complaints, such matters of policy are the province of the elected branches, not this Court.
Given such dubious "public" ventures as this, the implications of the foregoing interpretation of Kelo are downright frightening.
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February 29, 2008
The "leadership" of Bill White
Let me see if I've got this straight.
On one hand, private businessmen invest millions in buying a run-down property and following the city's existing laws and regulations in preparing to build the Ashby high-rise, a large-scale residential redevelopment similar to dozens of others that dot Houston's landscape. When neighbors of the development object to the scale of the development relative to the surrounding neighborhood, Mayor White orders one of the city's approvals relating to traffic ingress and egress to be revised to delay or undermine the development altogether.
On the other hand, Mayor White proposes that the city spend at least $15-20 million to buy six blocks of downtown Chinatown property at a premium price for a soccer stadium that will block more east-west thoroughfares in a part of downtown where Minute Maid Park, the George R. Brown Convention Center and the Toyota Center already block a large number of such thoroughfares. Moreover, Mayor White is pushing this deal through City Council even though the city already owns six blocks nearby that is a better location for the soccer stadium (it wouldn't block any additional east-west thoroughfares and wouldn't require a major modification to another boondoggle). Meanwhile, the city has no financial commitment from the local soccer team even to build the stadium.
This is making the Harris County Commissioners' dithering over the Astrodome hotel project look downright prudent in comparison.
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February 27, 2008
The Hollywood Dome?
It is a reflection of how low my expectations have sunk for rational decisions from Harris County officials. I actually felt a sense of relief that officials do not appear to be taking this seriously:
Lights, camera, action: Dome needs a makeover
The Astrodome was a stage for baseball and football prima donnas to strut their stuff, but it could become a forum for Hollywood stars.
At least that's what would happen if the Houston Association of Entertainment Professionals gets its way.
The association, a new, non-profit group representing film industry workers, has heard that not all county officials support the Astrodome convention hotel plan and has come up with an alternate proposal -- turning the Dome into a film production studio.
"It would bring an entire new economy to Houston," said association president Elise Hendrix. "We should make a home for the film-making industry."
Astroturf and stadium seating would give way to studio space where sets could be built, a film-processing operation that could produce dailies, a 100,000-square-foot, underground sound stage and offices.
Hendrix pitched her idea to the Houston Film Commission, an arm of the Greater Houston Convention and Visitors Bureau, last week.
But she and other association members may appear light on the gravitas needed to have their plan taken seriously. Hendrix, 25, is a professional makeup artist who left the University of Louisiana at Lafayette before graduating. She was a fashion design and merchandising major.
The association doesn't have a web site, only a page on MySpace.
But Hendrix said the association is courting investors who would put up the estimated $50 million to $200 million needed to gut the Dome and turn it into Astrodome Production Facilities. She declined to name investment groups that she is courting.
Willie Loston, director of the Harris County Sports and Convention Corp., which oversees Reliant Park, said the association hasn't contacted him about the proposal.
"Great," he said after learning of it. "They got some money?" [. . .]
Given the speculative nature of the Astrodome Hotel boondoggle project, and assuming that the County powers have decided that razing the Dome is political suicide, why aren't County and Texas Medical Center officials figuring out a way to renovate the Dome into the premiere medical training and education facility in the world? Just a thought.
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February 18, 2008
An interesting headline choice
Kevin Whited and Cory Crow continue to express amazement at the delusional nature of county officials and the Houston Chronicle over the proposed Astrodome hotel project that is now in its fourth year of being bandied about. The latest Chronicle effort to breath life into this boondoggle is this weekend article that carries the following headline:
"Dome plan could bring in millions""Report also says hotel would have 72 percent occupancy rate"
More realistically, the headline could have read as follows:
"Dome plan could cost County millions""Report says that hotel would have only 72 percent occupancy rate"
All depends on one's point of view, eh?
Given my extensive blogging on this boondoggle, I won't go into all the reasons why converting the Astrodome to a destination hotel is unlikely to happen without a large public subsidy. Suffice it to say that if private financing for Astrodome hotel could not be arranged over the past several years when the market for such financing was quite good, then it's not going to happen in the foreseeable future now that credit and equity markets have pulled back from such speculative investments. So, if this deal is going to proceed, then get ready to provide a bountiful public subsidy for it.
However, one name mentioned in the Chron story reminded me of an instructive legal matter I handled back in the mid-1980's. The matter involved an Astrodome-area hotel that had been promoted to investors and built immediately before the bottom fell out of the local commercial real estate market when the price of oil and gas tumbled to record lows at the end of 1985. I ended up representing the promoters, who had guaranteed a large portion of the construction financing on the hotel.
During the year or so that my clients owned the hotel, it never came close in any month to generating enough revenue to cover the operating expenses of the hotel, much less generating anything for my clients to use to pay debt service on the construction financing. Not surprisingly, the bank eventually foreclosed on the hotel. The promoters and investors lost their entire investment in the hotel.
Guess who the consultant was who prepared the glowing feasibility study that helped persuade my clients to promote and finance that boondoggle?
Yup. John Keeling.
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February 12, 2008
Bill King's "Let'em ride free plan"
Longtime Houstonian Bill King is a common sense fellow who serves on the Transportation Council, a group of elected officials and agency staffers that sets priorities for transportation spending in the 13-county Gulf Coast region. In this Chronicle op-ed from over the weekend, he reviews the Metro light rail system's horrific ridership numbers (previous posts here) and concludes that -- given the massive sunk costs invested in the light rail system -- the ridership numbers are so bad that it makes economic sense to attempt to increase ridership by simply allowing riders to use the system free-of-charge:
Today, the Metropolitan Transit Authority reports slightly under 300,000 daily "boardings." Because of transfers, it is a little bit of guesswork to determine how many commuters are actually using transit. But it is probably something in the 120,000-130,000 range. For every commuter we can convince to take a train or bus to work, we get one car off our roads. That means less congestion and fewer emissions and collisions. Clearly a good thing.Metro has developed a far-ranging, multibillion-dollar plan dubbed Metro Solutions that it hopes will increase transit ridership. Phase 2 of that plan consists of five light rail lines and will cost about $2.2 billion. The ultimate cost will undoubtedly be higher. Metro projects that its Phase 2 lines will have about 140,000 daily boardings. However, these lines will replace existing bus service along the same routes, so not all of the boardings will represent an increase in transit ridership. The net increase on the Main Street line from switching to light rail has been about 19 percent.
If this ratio holds on the Phase 2 lines, we should pick up an increase in daily boardings of about 20,000 to 30,000 or something like 10,000 to 12,000 new transit riders. This is a very small increase compared to well over 1 million daily commuters in Houston.
The traffic models indicate that this relatively small increase will be about offset by the lost street lanes the rail lines will use and the scores of new street level crossings. As a result, there will be no meaningful reduction in traffic congestion from the Phase 2 lines. [. . .]
. . . Metro recovers a very small percentage of its costs through fares. In fiscal year 2006, Metro only collected about $54 million in fares compared to $435 million in operating expenses, or only about 12 percent. That is because Metro gets the overwhelming majority of its funds from a 1 percent sales tax. And Metro is currently enjoying a boom in its sales tax revenues. In the past two years, sale tax receipts have increased by approximately $84 million and are on track this year to increase almost another $40 million. Metro currently is sitting on nearly $400 million in cash, receivables and short term investments.
Also, Metro spends about $5 million a year collecting its fares and advertising, expenses that could be dramatically reduced if fares were eliminated. So eliminating fares would probably only cost us around $50 million annually. [. . .]
Elimination of fares is not an end game solution. There is still a pressing need for expanded transit service throughout the region. But going to a fare free system may be a way to jump-start a new transit paradigm. With a larger transit constituency, public support for new programs may grow.
The nice thing about the idea is that it is not irrevocable. If it does not result in the hoped for benefits, we can always reverse course and try something else. Houston's transit program has been log-jammed for years with no end in sight. Personally, I am ready to try something different, even if it is a little "out of the box."
Bill King is a good sport and I give him credit for attempting to make the best of a terrible investment. He is not attempting to justify the construction of Phase 2 of the light rail system by eliminating fares (that would be impossible); he simply references Phase 2 to make the point that eliminating fares would have a bigger impact on ridership at a much lower cost. Most of the benefit of his proposal would probably come from eliminating fares on the Park & Ride system and using the system's unused bus capacity.
However, thinking "outside the box" in the face of these numbers (10-12,000 more daily light rail transit riders in return for a $2.5 billion investment?) calls for something far more than just "let'em ride free." Indeed, you could quadruple that increase in daily ridership and it would still be an extremely poor return on investment of public funds.
A more appropriate response in the face of such a poor cost/benefit ratio is to cut the losses altogether, halt the light rail project where it stands and either return the public capital at Metro to the taxpayers or use the funds on something that will truly benefit a substantial portion of the area citizens (flood control or more flexible area-wide bus transit, maybe?). Just how much money will Houston's political leaders allow Houston-area residents to blow before exhibiting true leadership on the colossal light rail boondoggle?
Update: The Chronicle's transit columnist, Rad Sadlee, comments here on King's op-ed.
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February 5, 2008
Pro Dome? Or just anti-Emmett?
I understand that Ed Emmett is not the Chronicle's favored candidate for Harris County Judge. But isn't it a bit odd for the Chron to be fanning criticism of Emmett for showing rare leadership over the pie-in-the-sky Astrodome hotel redevelopment deal (previous posts here)?
Look, this is really very simple. No equity investor or financial institution in their right mind is going to invest upwards of half a billion dollars to redevelop the Dome into a convention hotel. If there were such investors, they would have stepped up in the over three years that this proposal has been floating about town and the financial markets. The fact that the Astrodome hotel would not even have the primary right to use the Reliant Park space that it sits upon for over a month out of the year (roughly 22 days for the Houston Live Stock Show & Rodeo and another dozen or so days for the Texans) only makes the hotel proposal more speculative in nature. That several County Commissioners continue to think that it's a good idea to pursue the Astrodome hotel project does not make it one. Rather, it simply shows why they are County Commissioners and not businesspeople responsible for creating jobs and turning a profit.
And reliance on a poll of Houstonians to keep the Astrodome hotel dream alive is just plain silly. Sure, most Houstonians would like to preserve the Dome. It's a landmark and an architectural treasure. But I doubt that poll revealed to its participants that mothballing the Dome over the past three years has already cost the County $12-15 million that could have been spent on improving roads, flood control or park improvements. Similarly, that poll almost certainly did not disclose to its participants the financial risk that the County would be taking if an Astrodome convention hotel craters, as many such hotels tend to do. If a poll is taken with such information supplied to its participants, then my bet is that the number of Houstonians wanting to preserve this financial black hole would diminish rapidly.
Emmett is showing leadership in moving the decision-making process on the Dome along. The Chronicle is playing politics in criticizing him for it. Set a reasonable deadline for proposals, consider them and then either move forward with one that makes financial sense or raze the Dome and build a parking ramp for Reliant Park that would generate revenue to pay off the bonded indebtedness that remains on the Dome. That may not be the sexist thing alternative, but it's the responsible thing to do.
Posted by Tom at 12:10 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
January 24, 2008
The latest boondoggle?
Anne Linehan, Kevin Whited and Cory Crow note this week's "are you kidding me?" moment from City Hall -- two Nancy Sarnoff/Chronicle articles reporting on the trial balloon that Mayor White floated about building a second large convention hotel in downtown Houston next to the George R. Brown Convention Center and the existing 1,200 room, city-owned Hilton Americas Hotel.
Another large downtown convention center hotel is surprising to anyone who has been following the Harris County government's fits and starts in regard to the proposed Astrodome hotel redevelopment project. However, Mayor White recently engineered the hiring of a new leader (Greg Ortale) for the local convention bureau and it looks as if the prospect of elevating Houston to the small tier of U.S. cities with adequate facilities to handle the largest conventions was part of the pitch in that hire.
Does building another big downtown hotel make sense? In and of itself, the answer is clearly no. Private equity interests have no interest in risking their money on such a project, just as they have no interest in doing the same in regard to the Astrodome hotel redevelopment. Thus, the deal only begins to make sense because of the prospect of public financing, which is how the City financed the first downtown convention center hotel.
Despite the lack of any meaningful analysis in the Sarnoff/Chronicle articles, the first hotel has been anything but an unqualified success. The Mayor suggests that the City spent $300 million on it (that seems way low to me) and that its presently worth "at least $350 million" (yeah, but who's buying?). There are a bunch of less risky investments that the City could have made with that $300 million that would have generated more than the speculative $50 million equity that Mayor White thinks the City has in the Hilton Americas.
But the larger question is whether the City ought to be in the business of building convention center hotels in the first place? As Cory points out, the rationale for the investment is that, with the larger number of convention center hotel rooms, Houston could compete with the small number of cities (Las Vegas, Orlando and San Antonio) for the really big conventions that need the concentrated mass of hotel rooms that only those cities offer. Although transit is an issue in getting from the downtown convention area to Houston's cultural areas and attractions, I can see how Houston would be a viable alternative to those other cities. For example, Houston's restaurants, theater district and museum district are better and more diverse than any of the other three alternatives. And Vegas is not every large convention's cup of tea.
But given the alternatives, is another large investment in a second convention center hotel really a prudent allocation of the City of Houston's financial resources? Here is where I have my doubts. As I've noted many times in regard to Houston's light rail boondoggle, allocating $300-$500 million on another downtown convention center hotel has real consequences, such as leaving inadequate resources to make improvements to Houston's infrastructure (flood control and fixing of traffic hotspots, to name just two) that would dramatically decrease the risk of death and property damage. Stated simply, does it make sense for the City to be investing that kind of money in a downtown convention hotel when convention attendees won't be able to get to it from Hobby Airport? The main drag to the Gulf Freeway and downtown from Hobby Airport -- Broadway Street -- is already virtually impassable during even moderate rainstorms.
Maybe taking a flyer on a second downtown convention center hotel would make more sense but for the billions blown on the light rail system. But the size of that boondoggle leaves a very small margin for error in regard to allocation of the City's remaining resources. At this point, a large investment in a second convention center hotel appears to fall well outside that small margin.
By the way, speaking of the Astrodome hotel project, it appears now that even Harris County officials believe that the deal is dead. However, the proposed alternative is to turn it into a horse barn?:
Meanwhile, there could be three or four groups prepared to present plans to transform the Dome.The Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo may be one contender, said Leroy Shafer, the rodeo's chief operating officer. The rodeo and partners are looking into whether the Dome could serve as a replacement facility for aging Reliant Arena.
Astroturf and tiered stadium seats would give way to more than 1,000 horse stalls and an arena with a capacity of at least 6,000. The vast open area where former Astros stars Jimmy Wynn and Jeff Bagwell hit towering drives would be turned into a three-story exhibition and stalling space, Shafer said.
Posted by Tom at 12:10 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
January 15, 2008
Re-evaluating boondoggles
Let me get this straight. Mayor White started out with a proposal several months ago to allow the local MLS soccer team to build a stadium at their own expense on downtown land that the City of Houston owned but was not using except for extra parking (previous posts here).
So, how did we get to the point where the City is now willing to pony up at least $20 million and exercise its eminent domain power to acquire land for the private owners of the team to build their stadium? Heck, we haven't even started to talk about who's going to pick up the tab for the cost of the necessary infrastructure improvements or how much "Central Planning Chief" Peter Brown's "mixed used development" ideas are going to cost (for the folly of such ventures, see here). By the way, Mr. Brown, what are the names of the other cities that are lining up to provide financing for a soccer stadium that makes you so sure that the Dynamo will leave if Houston doesn't provide it?
And to top it off, the proposed location of the proposed new stadium figures to increase the cost of an even larger boondoggle.
Granted, we're talking about throwing away "only" $20-30 million on this deal at this point. That's peanuts in comparison to what the City wastes annually on the light rail system. But the way this deal has developed leads one to question whether there is any adult supervision whatsoever down at City Hall? If it's acceptable to throw $20-30 million at a minor league soccer team, then what's next? $20-30 million for the Aeros?
Posted by Tom at 12:10 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
A real train wreck
This LA Times op-ed by transit experts Jim Moore and Tom Rubin examining the LA area's MTA transit system over the past 20 years. They provide a daunting warning for those who rationalize the massive deficits of Houston's light rail system by contending that the system will become cost-efficient in the long run:
. . . the MTA has spent more than $11 billion since 1986 to build its rail network, and the effect has been to reduce total transit ridership on the system by more than 3 billion boardings. That's a bizarre result.
Shouldn't investments in transit infrastructure encourage, not discourage, transit use? So, why is Houston continuing to barrel down a path that LA has already shown is a poor way to invest in mass transit?
Posted by Tom at 12:07 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
December 12, 2007
It could happen here
This earlier post noted that a not very flattering analysis of the economic debacle that is the San Jose, California light rail system might very well describe Houston's light rail system in a few years if we don't come to our senses. Following up on those thoughts, this Randal O'Toole post reviews a San Jose Mercury News newspaper article that reports on the state of the San Jose transit system on the 20-year anniversary of light rail there. It's not a pretty picture:
Santa Clara County taxpayers pay as much or more for transit, yet their transit system carries fewer riders, than almost any system with light rail in the country. “The heavy tax commitment to transit,” the article notes, “means fewer dollars for road upgrades.” Especially since a half-cent sales tax that voters approved of for roads was hijacked by the transit agency in 2000. [. . .]“The light-rail system should be considered a 100-year investment,” says San Jose’s director of transportation planning. That shows how shallow planners are: within another 20 years, that investment will be completely worn out and San Jose will have to decide whether to scrap it or spend another few billion replacing it.
. . . [the] Silicon Valley, with its jobs spread out more thinly than almost anywhere else in the country, was unsuited for large-bus transit service. So to go from buses to light rail, which requires even more job concentration to work, was a mistake. Having made that mistake, VTA now wants to build BART, which requires even more job concentration. . .
Light rail was the wrong solution for San Jose in 1987, it is the wrong solution today, and it still will be the wrong solution in 2027. We can only hope that San Jose’s leaders and opinion makers, including the Mercury-News, come to their senses by then and decide to junk the whole thing.
Meanwhile, in Houston, as our local "leaders" continue planning to spend upwards of $4 billion on expansion of a light rail system that relatively few citizens of the area will use, alternative transit projects that make much more sense are relegated to discussion in the blogosphere.
The Houston area is a big place with a vibrant and resilient economy. But Metro's light rail system is the one urban boondoggle going right now that has the potential to become a serious economic drag on the local economy in the not-to-distant future. It's far past time that our local leadership noticed and started taking actions to hedge this risk.
Posted by Tom at 12:10 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
November 21, 2007
The Chronicle continues to defy reality
As noted in this earlier post on the improbable Astrodome hotel redevelopment project (previous posts here), the Chronicle continues to beat the drum in support of the deal without any meaningful financial or economic analysis. The intro to the editorial reveals the depth of the Chron editorial board's analysis -- "The public favors preserving the world's first indoor stadium; all parties should cooperate to do that."
Here are just a few of the questions that the Chronicle editorial board should be asking:
If the Astrodome were not in Reliant Park, would anyone in their right mind even be thinking of investing over a half billion dollars to build a 1,300 room resort hotel in the middle of Reliant Park?If the answer to the prior question is "no," then why should anyone in their right mind even be thinking of investing over a half billion dollars to build a 1,300 room resort hotel in the middle of Reliant Park simply because the decrepit hulk of the Dome is there?
In one of the tightest credit and equity markets in years, and with many economic forecasters predicting a U.S. recession over the next 12-18 months, who realistically is going to fund the half billion dollars that the promoters claim is necessary to convert the Dome into a resort hotel?
If the promoters have not been able to put together a viable plan for redevelopment of the Dome in over three years of trying, then why are we still talking about this?
Posted by Tom at 12:10 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
November 19, 2007
Transit survey raises more questions than it answers
Isn't it interesting the different reactions that Anne Linehan, Charles Kuffner and Tory Gattis had to the 2007 Houston Area Survey regarding transit options? The Chronicle and other light rail enthusiasts immediately seized upon the survey as evidence that Houston-area residents want to dump more money into the light rail money pit.
But the problem with such surveys is that they generally ask people questions in a vacuum and do not address Peter Gordon's three elegantly simple questions regarding economic choices:
1) At what cost?
2) Compared to what? and
3) How do you know?
For example, assume for a moment that the persons surveyed were informed of the fact that the average urban freeway lane costs about $10 million per mile and that the average light rail line costs about $50 million per mile while carrying only one-fifth as many people as the freeway lane. And these are only average figures -- as Randal O'Toole recently pointed out, Seattle's recently rejected light rail expansion was projected to cost $250 million per mile, a whopping 125 times more expensive at moving people than a freeway.
Moreover, let's also assume that the persons surveyed are informed that the expenditure of a billion or so of public money on expanding a poorly-used light rail system has real consequences, such as leaving inadequate funds to make improvements to Houston's infrastructure that would dramatically decrease the risk of death and property damage from flooding. Or whether the billion or so being flushed down the light rail drain would be better used to fix various area traffic "hotspots" where accidents or bottlenecks occur with high frequency.
No one knows for sure, but my bet is that the survey results would be dramatically different if the foregoing costs and alternatives were included as a part of the survey. It's a shame that neither the City's current leaders nor the mainstream media are asking the simple questions set forth above that would generate a meaningful cost-benefit analysis and ensuing well-informed debate regarding continued investment in expensive public works projects such as Metro's light rail system.
Instead, we get this:
Metro executive vice president John Sedlak led off [a presentation to the Transportation Policy Council, a group of elected officials and agency staffers that sets priorities for transportation spending in the 13-county Gulf Coast planning region] with a slide show describing the [proposed Metro University light rail line] project and told the panel its approval was needed so Metro could get federal funding and start engineering work.If there was a short delay, Holm asked, "What would be the consequence?"
Sedlak replied that the project is on "an aggressive schedule" and that a delay "would send a message to Washington that there are issues with our overall program."
Holm asked why Washington would think there were issues and not just loose ends to tie up.
"They watch every activity that takes place very carefully," Sedlak said. "The federal government is aware we are having this meeting today."
Holm asked what the application deadline was. Sedlak said it was "in the month of December."
"If the delay was just a few days, would it jeopardize the funding of the entire program?" Holm asked.
"I truly believe it could," Sedlak replied.
Kemah Mayor Bill King had questions, too.
How many more passengers would the rail carry than the buses on Richmond do now?
Sedlak said he did not know, but Metro could get him the answer.
King asked how the line would impact traffic on Richmond.
Sedlak said there would be some negative effects, but the finished line should "take vehicles off the street." Numerical estimates are in the line's environmental impact document, he said.
Holm spoke again, her voice a little shaky.
"There are cities," she said, "that have never been turned down for a funding request. It's not because they agree on everything they want. It's because they do their due diligence and they do their battles at home.
"We need to still build consensus in this community. We need to be able to walk hand-in-hand in supporting a project," she said.
Update: As usual, Tory Gattis has additional insightful thoughts.
Posted by Tom at 12:05 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
November 16, 2007
The nation's worst-managed transit system
Tom Rubin is an accountant who has audited many transit agencies and is an expert in transit system accounting. Randal O'Toole channels a Rubin presentation in describing the nation's worst-managed transit system:
Participants in the Preserving the American Dream conference were encouraged to ride [the] light-rail line to one of the conference events. What they saw was not a pretty picture. Trains were infrequent (one of the supposed advantages of rail is that they run so frequently that riders don’t need to consult schedules), the in-street tracks are dangerous (one conference goer slipped on a rail and fell into a curb), and the fellow patrons are not always people you want to be around (several conference goers were treated to the scene of someone becoming violently ill on board, leading one of our members to say, “So that’s what they mean by ‘vibrant streets’”).Beyond these impressions, Rubin observes that [the light-rail system] has “the worst operating statistics of any American transit operator.” The reason for this, he says, is that [the area] — being built mostly after World War II — is one of the most spread-out urban areas in the country. Not only are people spread out, but jobs are spread out, with no job concentrations anywhere.
This makes large buses particularly unsuitable for transit because there is no place where large numbers of people want to go. So what was [the transit system's] solution when its bus numbers were low relative to other transit agencies? Build light rail — in other words, use an expensive technology that requires even more job concentrations.
Now it has one of the, if not the, poorest-patronized light-rail systems in America. So what is its solution? Build heavy rail, a technology that requires even more job concentrations.
What transit system are O'Toole and Rubin describing? Well, it sure sounds like it could be Houston's, but it's not. They are talking about San Jose, California's system.
But how long do you think it will be until Houston's light rail system is in similar shape?
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
November 12, 2007
Why is the Chronicle beating this dead horse?
The Chronicle continues its apparent campaign to breath life into the second largest local urban boondoggle (second only to the Metro light rail system) -- the proposed Astrodome hotel project (previous posts here). Rice professor and local political pundit Bob Stein comments about the apparent dilemma:
"For public officials, it's like being in a maze," Stein said. "You don't know which turn you make is going to help you. You have the rodeo and the Texans — the stakeholders — and then you have the public."
In reality, there is no dilemma at all. As USC economics professor Peter Gordon observes with regard to such issues, three simple questions need to be addressed: 1) At what cost? 2) Compared to what? and 3) How do you know? Despite the public's fondness for the Dome, it is an obsolescent hulk that serves no useful purpose and costs a considerable amount each year just to mothball. The cost of the renovation is enormous and will almost certainly require some type of public contribution, particularly given the currently spooked credit and equity markets. Even if the deal could be financed without a large public contribution (I doubt it can), the county still has to face the prospect that the project will fail (many new hotels do) and that large operating subsidies will be necessary in the future. To make matters worse, there is inadequate demand for the city's existing supply of hotel rooms, much less a supply that is increased by 1,300 rooms that the Astrodome hotel project would contribute. Finally, the current tenants of Reliant Park object to the hotel project.
So, in the face of all of the foregoing, why does the Chronicle continue to beat the drum for the project? Inquiring minds would like to know.
Posted by Tom at 12:05 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 31, 2007
"A rusted-out battleship in a spruced up port"
Amazingly, the silly notion that it might be economically feasible to convert the Astrodome into a Gaylord Texan-type convention hotel has been making the local rounds for over three years now.
Maybe the combination of the Texans and the Rodeo coming out against the proposal will finally put the nonsense to rest. As the Chron article notes, even County Judge Ed Emmett is skeptical about the merits of the proposal:
County Judge Ed Emmett signaled in September that he isn't convinced the project is viable. While attending the Texans' home opener in September, he said the Astrodome struck him as an aging, rusted-out battleship that remains in a spruced-up port.
It occurs to me that the Astrodome hotel promoters decision to obtain a financing commitment for the project before getting the consent of the Reliant Park tenants to the project put a very large cart before the horse. Sort of like Oilers' owner Bud Adams unveiling a model of a proposed new downtown football/basketball stadium back in the mid-1990's without telling Rockets owner Les Alexander and Mayor Bob Lanier about it first. And we all know what happened after that imbroglio.
All of these machinations over what to do with the Dome would be relatively harmless except for the fact that the Dome continues to "eat" -- that is, it costs Harris County a hefty sum (probably at least $3 million or so annually) just to mothball the Dome. Hopefully, the opposition of the main tenants at Reliant Park to the hotel redevelopment plan will finally lead to the Dome property being used for the best land use, which is probably parking. That's not as sexy as a big hotel, but it provides something that is actually needed and will generate some revenue.
By the way, a good sign that a project is almost kaput is that its supporters become delusional. According to the Chron article, that's already happening to certain promoters of the Astrodome hotel project:
Willie Loston, director of the Harris County Sports & Convention Corp., said the county attorney's office is researching whether the county could approve the project over the objections of the Texans and the rodeo if the sports corporation determined the development would not hurt their operations.
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 22, 2007
Continuing to rationalize a boondoggle
The big transit news in these parts last week was the announcement that the Metropolitan Transit Authority's board Metro's board approved the final route for the east-west University line and decided to deploy the much more expensive light rail rather than bus rapid transit in four other transit corridors. Kevin Whited, Lou Minatti and Tory Gattis were among the local bloggers commenting on this development.
What is perhaps most galling about all of this is the sheer lack of any perspective from the local mainstream media regarding the dubious nature of Metro's urban economics. The Chronicle article on Metro's announcement is typical of the vacuity of media coverage of Metro -- the fact that light rail systems are notoriously uneconomic and underused relative to cost is not even mentioned. Meanwhile, Metro continues to insist upon investing billions of tax proceeds in an inflexible light rail system that will cost millions in additional annual tax proceeds to subsidize. To make matters worse, the money that Metro is throwing away on what will be a underutilized and expensive light rail system would go a long ways toward dramatically ameliorating the Houston area's flood control problems and traffic hotspots, two public works projects that would provide far more benefit for far more Houston area residents than the light rail project. In short, wasting huge amounts of public funds on a boondoggle simply does not occur in a vacuum. Such waste will negatively impact more pressing public works projects in Houston for decades.
Transit expert Randall O'Toole recently published this Cato Insitute policy analysis, Debunking Portland (related blog posts here and here), on the failures of Portland’s light rail system, which was built in a far more densely-populated area than Houston and is often touted by light rail advocates as an example of one of the rare successful systems. As O'Toole points out, the Portland system has not been a success. 9.8% of Portland-area commuters took transit to work before the region built its light rail system, while today, just just 7.6% of the area commuters use the system. The fact that Portland’s light rail system led to billions of dollars in economic development is largely a ruse -- such development received billions of dollars in subsidies and, before the city started offering those subsidies, not a single transit-oriented development was built along the Portland light rail line. Finally, light rail cost overruns forced Portland to raise bus fares and reduce bus service.
As O'Toole observes, that’s considered a success?
Posted by Tom at 12:05 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
September 12, 2007
A billion dollar boondoggle?
Kevin Whited reports that downtown Houston's night life continues to dissipate from lack of demand. This despite the fact that various local governmental entities have invested at least $1 billion in the downtown area by building a baseball stadium, a basketball arena, a convention center hotel, a light rail system and assorted other goodies.
Sort of makes you wonder what would happen if even a portion of that $1 billion were invested in something that Houston really needs, such as improvements to flood control and traffic hotspots? My sense is that such an investment would dramatically lessen the risk that citizens would lose their lives or suffer property loss in the event of heavy rains (which occur with some regularity around here) or a traffic accident. Thus, we aren't as safe as we could be, but our local governmental officials have seen to it that we are as comfortable as reasonably possible while being entertained. Gotta love those priorities.
Posted by Tom at 12:05 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
September 10, 2007
What to do with the Dome?
There has been an interesting disparity in media reports about the Astrodome over the past couple of weeks. First, this one from Channel 13 investigative reporter, Wayne Dolcefino:
The county judge warns the aging Houston Astrodome may soon become too dangerous for people to even go inside.What do you do about an important piece of Houston history? Do you tear it down? The Eighth Wonder of the World has now become a legacy of how not to pay for a sports stadium. Long after the Oilers left and seven seasons after the Astros stopped playing here it sits.
When we went to the dome this week, it was warm inside and didn't smell too pretty. It's home to a few offices but the floor of the Dome floor is now just concrete.
"The dome is old and it's falling apart," said Harris County Judge Ed Emmett. "It's time as they say to fish or cut bait."
"Now we've got a situation where we have what was the Eighth Wonder of the World sitting there effectively unoccupied," said Harris Co Tax Assessor-Collector Paul Bettencourt.
And you are still paying. They are numbers many public officials probably had a hard time figuring out themselves. You still owe $38 million on the Astrodome. It's property tax money and every year it's costing millions just to keep it operating. In the last five years it cost $18 million. The tax assessor calls it a money hole.
"We've got to decide what to do with the domed stadium," said Emmett. "It's time to put up or shut up frankly."
Hurricanes have nearly doubled insurance on the dome. The bill has been $894,000 just this year. And you think your utility bills are high? Look at this. The bill was $1.1 million. Operating expenses this year alone were $2.75 million.
The biggest money maker at the Dome is The Hideout. That's the bar the Rodeo operates on the floor of the Dome. We get no money for that. The rest of the year the Dome was used just 13 days, making just $100,000.
"Frankly we can't let people use it much longer, it will become a dangerous place," Emmett said.
"The question we have to decide is if we can't find something for the Dome to become, then they have to think seriously about tearing it down," said Bettencourt.
Then, this one on the interminable Astrodome hotel redevelopment project:
Entrepreneurs looking to turn the iconic Astrodome into an upscale convention hotel have scrapped a "best of historic Texas" theme for a more modern, streamlined look.A faux Texas courthouse and other features that played on the state's past are out. Plans now call for including a section of the Dome's seats, part of the diamond and an overall contemporary design that plays up the building's cutting-edge nature when it opened in 1965.
"We're going to have rides. There could be air rides that take you off the ground and make you say, 'Wow,' " said Scott Hanson, president of Astrodome Redevelopment Co., the firm hoping to transform the Dome. "We're going to have a few of those. They would be easy-going rides that would show off the venue."
Astrodome Redevelopment still has hurdles to clear before it begins work. Willie Loston, director of the Harris County Sports and Convention Corp., which oversees Reliant Park, will update the Commissioners Court on the company's progress in executive session Tuesday.
The court's approval is needed before work could begin. And Astrodome Redevelopment needs to work out revenue sharing and parking deals with the Houston Texans and the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, the major tenants of Reliant Park.
But Hanson and Astrodome Redevelopment's chief executive, John Clanton, said the company is making progress and hopes to begin work on the interior as early as next April.
Hanson previously said the company had obtained financing for the $450 million project. But he and Clanton publicly announced the lender, Deutsche Bank, for the first time Thursday.
The article goes on to claim that the "entreprenuers" of the project have a new Atlanta-based partner who will supposedly add equity to the deal and make it more viable.
Frankly, this silly notion that entreprenuers can arrange private financing for the conversion of the Astrodome into a hotel has been going on for three years. Now, the Chronicle would have us believe Deutsche Bank has approved a $450 million financing commitment on a highly-speculative covention hotel project in during the tightest credit market in years? I'm willing to bet that any such commitment has more outs than the Stros lineup this season.
All of this imagery about the proposed Astrodome hotel would be all fun and games except that it is costing the County real money to maintain the Dome, probably around $10 million just since the dome hotel project was first floated. Given that we are three years into this and the entreprenuers are not even at the stage of cutting deals with the Texans and the Rodeo over use of the Reliant Park property during times of mixed use, just how long is the County going to dawdle over the Dome before moving on to more realistic uses of the property?
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
August 9, 2007
An easy prediction
Buried in the Chronicle's article on the Metropolitan Transit Authority's latest propaganda release regarding the proposed University light rail line is the following snippet:
The study estimates say the Cummins-Wheeler-Elgin combination is the least expensive of the routes considered, at $715 million, compared with $836 million for the Southwest Freeway-Alabama combination.
Prediction: Both routes will cost substantially more than the estimates and the revenue generated from the ridership will not come close to meeting the operating expenses of the line.
Posted by Tom at 12:00 AM | Comments (0) |