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June 9, 2006
Ford and that pesky "B" word
Although somewhat lower on the radar screen than General Motors' more well-publicized troubles, Ford Motor Co. is reeling today after Fitch Ratings downgraded the company's credit rating (see also here) two notches to the highly-speculative single-B-plus level while analyzing how creditors might fare in a corporate reorganization of Ford under chapter 11. Despite the downgrade, Ford's rating is still higher than GM's credit rating, which is B3 by Moody's Investors Service and single-B by Standard & Poor's and Fitch.
Inasmuch as Ford (as with GM) continues to have a strong liquidity position (about $24 billion in cash and securities as of the end of the first quarter), a bankruptcy filing is probably not imminent even though Ford estimates that it will burn through about $5-6 billion of that cash in 2006. At the close of yesterday's New York Stock Exchange composite trading, Ford shares were down 2% to $6.66 while on the debt side, Ford's 7.45% bonds due in 2031 fell 3.5% to about 70 cents on the dollar, which translates into a yield of 11% that is slightly below the yield on GM's 8.375% bonds that mature in 2033.
In its analysis, Fitch reminds investors that companies with a single-B-plus rating end up in bankruptcy about 24% of the time within five years. In a hypothetical Ford bankruptcy case, Fitch estimated debt holders would get back 50% to 70% of their investment from Ford and 70% to 90% of their investment in Ford Credit Company.
Posted by Tom at June 9, 2006 6:11 AM
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