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May 06, 2005
Dr. Bart Smith updates Houston economic forecast
As noted earlier here and here, University of Houston economics professor Dr. Barton Smith is the leading expert on the regional economics of the Houston metropolitan area. Dr. Smith is also the director of the UH Institute for Regional Forecasting, and his report on the local real estate market that he gives a couple of times a year to the Houston real estate business community is always one of the most well-attended luncheons in the Houston business community.
All in all, Dr. Smith views the Houston economy to be in a small but steady growth mode that is largely dependent on what happens in the exploration and production sector of the oil and gas industry. While Houston's housing market is not overinflated, Dr. Smith believes that it is currently suffering from oversupply, although not close to the extent of the dreaded days in the Houston real estate market of the mid-to-late 1980's. Dr. Smith reminded the audience that high energy prices alone are not enough to create a booming economy in Houston anymore, and noted that, while upstream energy grew at nearly 5 percent last year, the overall regional economy grew only 0.9 percent. Dr. Smith pointed out that this is the result of such factors as slow growth in downstream energy (including refining and petrochemicals) and in non-energy sectors of the regional economy.
Posted by Tom at May 6, 2005 06:59 AM
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