With the opening of Major League Baseballís season, this is the seventh (!) HCT preview (previous ones here) of the Strosí upcoming season. But with the continued development of the blogosphere over the past seven years, itís time to change the way in which HCT covers the Stros and MLB.
The reason for the change is simple. When this blog started in early 2004, coverage of the Stros was limited pretty much to the local mainstream mediaís coverage, which has been mostly bad. However, over the past 6+ years, the blogosphere has exploded and now a large number of bloggers and Twitterers cover the Stros on a daily basis better than either the mainstream media or this blog:
Astros County/http://twitter.com/Astroscounty
Crawfish Boxes/http://twitter.com/crawfishboxes
Zac Levineís Unofficial Scorer/http://twitter.com/thescorer
Alysonís Footnotes/https://twitter.com/alysonfooter
A Misplaced Astros Fan (quite good, but not updated recently)
Also, the following sites come in handy while following the Stros and MLB:
Coolstandings.com site (continually updated playoff odds)
With all this coverage, Iím no longer going to cover the Stros in the depth or regularity that I have in previous seasons. I will continue to post occasional observations about the Stros and baseball, particularly when the mainstream media passes along myths and misconceptions. But check out the resources above for really good and comprehensive coverage of the Stros.
With regard to the Stros, not much has changed since last yearís dismal 74-88 season. That club failed to make the playoffs for the fourth straight season since the Stros 2005 World Series appearance. This season’s club is arguably weaker than last season’s club, so it would appear that playoff contention remains a pipe dream.
As Iíve been saying for years now, the Stros have been a team in decline for a long time even though generally superior pitching during the 2002-2006 seasons masked that downturn. Owner Drayton McLane cleaned house toward the end of the disastrous 72-90 2007 season and the club is now firmly in the process of rebuilding its farm system, which had deteriorated into one of MLB’s worst over the latter stages of the Biggio-Bagwell era.
Last season, the Stros were muddling around with a .500 record based on slightly above-average hitting and slightly below-average pitching as of All-Star break when the pitching staff fell apart during third quarter, saving an astounding 43 fewer runs during that 40-game stretch than a National League-average pitching staff would have saved over those games. The pitching continued to go south during the final quarter of the season while the hitting fell apart completely down the stretch, which left the Stros with a 74-88 record, a ñ77 RSAA and a ñ34 RCAA.
Frankly, this performance level was easily predictable given what Baseball Prospectus has dubbed the "stars-and-scrubs" Stros roster. The Stros continue to play out a weak hand of a few above-average stars and below-average balance of the roster while attempting to deal with the long-overdue rebuilding program that has became necessary — but was generally ignored — during the final years of the Biggio-Bagwell era. GM Ed Wade and Scouting Director Bobby Heck have completed their third straight strong draft in terms of numbers, so the rebuilding program is in full swing. But it’s going to take another year or two before any appreciable amount of that investment begins to payoff at the MLB level.
This season, expect the Strosí pitching staff to improve somewhat (could it really get worse than last seasonís?), although itís not a good sign that Roy Oswalt (-1 RSAA/4.12 ERA/8-6 W-L) has already had to have a cortisone shot to treat a deteriorating disc condition that contributed to his worst MLB season last year. Moreover, itís quite probable that the hitting will be worse this season given that the Stros best hitter ñ 1B Lance Berkman ñ is coming off his least productive MLB season (31 RCAA/.399 OBA/.509 SLG/.907 OPS/25 HR/80 RBI in 136 games) since his 2000 rookie season and will start the season on the disabled list for a few games with a balky knee.
Thankfully, the rest of the National League Central is not overwhelming. The Cardinals and the Cubs appear to be the class of the division and my sense is that the Reds are the most likely club to make a jump up the standings this season. It appears that the Stros will be fighting it out to avoid the cellar with the Brewers and the Pirates. As a result, an over/under of 73 wins for the Stros seems about right.< /p>
Nevertheless, despite the Strosí woes, I continue to enjoy watching Major League Baseball. This will be the 25th straight season that Iíve had season tickets to the Stros games. Iíve seen some really good teams during that span and some really bad ones, too. But my curiosity about the game has never wavered. It wonít this season, either.
Play ball!
Thanks for the list of links – since I quit the Chronicle it’s tough to get even bad Astros info. Yardbarker was not making it, for me. But after all, it is a Chron…
I’ll check these out and see what I feel is worth a daily read. Thanks again.
jd