In driving back to the office today, I was listening to Charlie Pallilo — who, like me, analyzes baseball using mostly objective criteria — and reminded me of a point that I meant to make in my most recent periodic review of the Stros season — that is, subjective perceptions about baseball are usually quite inaccurate (a point noted in this post from the midway point of the 2006 season).
A case in point this season is Stros LF Carlos Lee. The consensus among most of the media that covers the Stros is that Lee is having a great season and that 1B Lance Berkman is having a lousy season. Well, that latter part of that statement is certainly correct — Berkman, by his lofty standards (career 357 RCAA/.414 OBA/.556 SLG/.971 OPS), is having a bad season (2007 stats: 4 RCAA/.383/.381/.765).
However, the reality is that Lee has not been any more productive than Berkman. Going into last night’s game with the A’s, Lee has generated exactly the same number of runs as Berkman (i.e., 4) over what an average National League hitter would have created for the Stros using the same number of outs as Lee has used. Lee’s key stat line (4/.340/.496/.836) is a bit better than Berkman’s this season, but not all that great by league leader standards. Moreover, Lee’s high number of RBI’s (52) is largely the result of where he hits in the order, not any great hitting performance. Lee’s hitting is largely undermined by the fact that he leads the league in grounding into double plays (14) and his low walk rate (18, compared with Berkman’s 46).
As noted earlier here, Lee’s career numbers (82/.344/515/.859) are nowhere near as good as Berkman’s and really not all that much better than 3B Morgan Ensberg, who is mostly riding the bench these days. Even Luke Scott, who has a 3 RCAA for the season, is about as productive as Lee, while Mark Loretta — who most folks believe has been much more productive than Scott this seaon — has actually been slightly less productive (2 RCAA) than Scott. Meanwhile, Biggio — who has been one of the least productive hitters in the National League from June 12, 2006 through June 12, 2007 (-31 RCAA!) continues to leadoff regularly.
The point of all this is that baseball is not rocket science, but many folks still make it more complicated than it is. Over a long season, a club’s best hitters based on career performance are generally going to produce the most runs for the team. The Stros need to play Berkman, Lee, Ensberg, Scott, and Hunter Pence regularly, fill in the other spots with the most productive players available and and then let the chips fall where they may. It’s highly improbable that the Stros will score more runs taking any other approach.
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Longtime Houston attorney Tom Kirkendall's observations on developments in law, business, medicine, culture, sports, and other matters of general interest to the Houston business, professional, and academic communities.
He’s also a liability in the field and a pretty slow base-runner. But he does have a great fan base and appears to be this year’s token minority (the Astros are the whitest bread in the major leagues; do you have a statistic for that, Tom, or am I just being subjective?)
Lee’s two GIDP on Monday night in Wrigley subjectively took me in the opposite direction as most Houston fans, I guess. That was brutal.
Lee excels in the traditional stats people still love – average, HRs, and RBIs. His OBP has never been that great, and his slugging percentage is lower than most folks probably realize.
Moreover, Lee’s high number of RBI’s (52) is largely the result of where he hits in the order, not any great hitting performance.
For such an “objective” post, that’s a pretty “subjective” statement, Tom. 🙂
Since Lee’s leading the NL in RBIs and every other team in the league has a cleanup hitter, I don’t really think you can downplay his number of RBIs by simply saying he’s a cleanup hitter. Every team has one after all, and Lee still leads the NL in RBIs.
I get your point that yes, the cleanup hitter gets more chances to drive in runs, but there are a lot of cleanup hitters without Lee’s RBI total. Ask the White Sox!
I think you (and Gary) are on much firmer ground when you question the importance of the RBI stat itself, compared to some of the other stats you discuss.
I would submit that driving in 52 runs at this point in the season batting anywhere in this anemic Astro line-up is quite a feat indeed
Kevin, actually I think we are saying the same thing about the misleading nature of the RBI statistic, albeit in different ways.
Take your White Sox example. The Sox have the worst team OBP in the American League and have no one with an OBP remotely near that of Lance Berkman to hit in front of the Sox’s best hitter, Jim Thome. If you placed Thome, who is a demonstrably better hitter than Carlos Lee, in the Stros lineup for the same number of plate appearances as Lee, then Thome would have at least as many RBI’s as Lee and probably more (because of his superior SLG %). Similarly, Lee would not have 53 RBI’s at this stage of the season if he were plopped in the Sox lineup because he would not have Berkman getting on base in front of him.
Stated another way, if we were to assume that Luke Scott would hit at the same level for the entire season to date that he has so far this season in limited playing time (181 PA’s/3 RCAA/.331 OBA/.472 SLG/.804 OPS), then Scott’s RBI’s would not be much less than Lee’s to date. I don’t think anyone would suggest that Scott is having a great season. On the other hand, many in the media have suggested that Lee is having an All-Star caliber season based solely on his RBI statistic.
So, your point is well taken. RBI’s — like batting average, wins and losses, and saves, among others — is a misleading statistic that needs to be placed in context.
Lee does “look” pretty good as a hitter. By that I mean he does things a lot of fans like. He’s aggressive (doesn’t take a lot of pitches), and he doesn’t strikeout much for a slugger. A lot of fans love the combination of those two qualities. It’s really a triumph of style over substance, but that’s just how it is.
Gary, good point, although pounding those low pitches into the infield for easy double-play balls will get a bit old in time, don’t you think. ;^)
One would think they would get tired of the GIDPs, but taking called third strikes seems to rile ’em up even more and Lee rarely does that.