Stros 2009 Season Review, Part Two

hunter pence The Stros (41-41) reached the halfway point of the 2009 season in an incongruous position.

Although they are performing only slightly better than predicted before the season and are in fifth place in the six team National League Central Division, the Stros are only two losses behind the first-place Cardinals (45-39). 

How could that be? Are the Stros better than expected? Do they really have a good chance of contending for a playoff spot? What is going on here?

The answers: (1) Baseball remains a funny game; (2) Only slightly; (3) Not much of a chance; and (4) Mediocre teams playing mostly other mediocre teams will generally split about even over the long haul of a season.

In coming to these answers, it’s helpful to review the aggregate RCAA and RSAA numbers of each club because that statistic provides a simple but revealing benchmark of how a team is performing during the long MLB season. Baseball remains a deceptively simple game. If your team’s hitters generate more runs than the opposition, and your team’s pitchers allow fewer runs from being scored than the opposition’s pitchers, then your team is going to be a winner.

A club’s RCAA reflects how many more (or fewer) runs that a club’s hitters generate than a National League-average club and RSAA measures how many more (or fewer) runs that a club’s pitching staff saves than a National League-average club (an exactly National League-average club’s score is zero). Accordingly, a club’s combined RCAA/RSAA number shows how many more (or fewer) runs the club’s hitters have generated and the club’s pitchers have saved (or given up) in comparison to a National League-average club.

A negative RCAA number reflects that a club’s hitters have generated fewer runs relative to what an average National League club would have generated using the same number of outs, and a negative RSAA number reflects that a pitching staff has saved its club fewer runs than an average National League pitching staff would have prevented in the same number of innings. Positive numbers in both cases are just the opposite — hitters are generating more runs than a National League average club and a pitching staff is saving more runs than a National League average staff.

miggy tejada Although the Stros’ record during the second quarter of the season was a bit above-average (23-19), the Stros remain a National League-average hitting team (2 RCAA) with a below National League-average pitching staff (-19 RSAA) at the halfway point of the season. Not surprisingly, that performance leaves the Stros smack dab in the middle (8th) of the 16 teams National League clubs from a hitting standpoint and the bottom 25% of the league (12th) in regard to pitching.

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There is no crying in baseball

With the passing of Memorial Day, it’s officially baseball season, even though the dang NBA Playoffs seem endless. Thus, it’s time for Tom Hanks as exasperated Manager Jimmy Dugan to remind us of the best baseball tirade in cinematic history. Enjoy.

Stros 2009 Season Review, Part One

lance-berkman While waiting in line to pick up a bottle of water at a Stros game earlier in the week, an old friend of mine and fellow longtime Stros season-ticket holder stopped by to say hello and chat.

Eventually, the conversation turned to the current Stros squad:

"This is a pretty bad baseball team," I observed.

"No," my friend countered. "This is a seriously bad baseball team."

Alas, the 2009 Stros have not done much during the first quarter of the season to contest my friend’s evaluation.

The Stros (18-22) are currently in last place in the NL Central, 7 games behind the division-leading Brewers (26-16). Only three of the other 15 National League clubs (Rockies, DBacks, and Nationals) have a worse record than the Stros.

The Stros as a team have created 7 fewer runs than an average National League team would have generated using the same number of outs ("RCAA", explained here), which is 8th among the 16 National League teams. That’s about the same rate that the Stros generated runs during the comparable part of both the 2007 and 2008 seasons, but better only than the Reds -27 RCAA among NL Central teams this season.

Meanwhile, the Stros pitching staff has saved 8 fewer runs than an average National League pitching staff would have saved in the same number of innings, which is 12th in the National League ("RSAA", explained here). Again, that’s about the same as the pitching staffs of the past two Stros clubs at the same stage of the season. However, every other pitching staff in the NL Central has a better RSAA than the Stros, including the division-leading Brewers’ 20 RSAA.

The 2008 Stros club finished fast to finish in second place in the NL Central with an 86-75 record, while the 2007 Stros faded to finish with a 73-89 record, the club’s worst record since the late 1980’s. So, given that the 2009 Stros have produced about the same statistically as those two prior clubs produced through a comparable part of the season, that raises an interesting question:

Is the 2009 club more likely over the balance of the season to progress similar to the 2008 club or deteriorate similar to the 2007 club?

On one hand, room for optimism exists. CF Michael Bourn (3 RCAA/.365 OBA/.401 SLG/.766 OPS) has finally shown signs of potential, although some of the mainstream media’s fawning over him is utterly premature because of the small sample size. RF Hunter Pence (13 RCAA/.414 OBA/.527 SLG/.941 OPS) has picked up from his hot finish to last season, and SS Miguel Tejada (3 RCAA/.353 OBA/.485 SLG/.837 OPS) — who finished last season as one of the poorest-producing regular players in MLB — is off to a good start to this season. Even archaic C Ivan Rodriguez (-5 RCAA/.316 OBA/.468 SLG/.784 OPS) has been an improvement on Brad Ausmus.

Add to the foregoing that P Wandy Rodriguez is having an All-Star-type season (17 RSAA/1.83 ERA), and that dependable stars P Roy Oswalt (0 RSAA/4.47 ERA), 1B Lance Berkman (4 RCAA/.380 OBA/.478 SLG/.857), LF Carlos Lee (8 RCAA/.373 OBA/.549 SLG/.922 OPS and injured closer Jose Valverde (-1 RSAA/5.63 ERA) really have not hit their stride yet this season, one can make the case that the Stros are primed for improvement over the balance of the season.

Unfortunately, for a variety of reasons, my sense is that this club’s trajectory will be more along the lines of the 2007 club than last season’s.

The primary reason for my pessimism is that this Stros pitching staff is not performing as well as last season’s, which was the main reason for that club’s strong finish. Only four pitchers on the staff have a positive RSAA through the first quarter of the season –Rodriguez, Chris Sampson, LaTroy Hawkins and Tim Byrdak. The balance of the staff has already allowed 38 more runs than an average National League staff would have given up through the first quarter of the season.

Moreover, starters Mike Hampton (-4 RSAA/5.23 ERA), Russ Ortiz (-4 RSAA/5.81 ERA), Brian Moehler (-8 RSAA/7.71 ERA) and Felipe Paulino (-7 RSAA/6.93 ERA) have been awful so far and there is very little reason to believe that any of those other than Paulino could improve much. Inasmuch as 60% of the starting rotation is getting bashed regularly, that is putting too much pressure on the bullpen, which is already depleted due to injuries to Valverde, Doug Brocail and Geoff Geary, who were the three best relief pitchers on the 2008 club.

Add in the fact that Tejada and Rodriguez will probably fade as the season wears on, that team management inexplicably continues to trot out 3B Geoff Blum (-6 RCAA/.336 OBA/.308 SLG/.642 OPS) regularly, and that oft-injured 2B Kaz Matsui is having a terrible season (-9 RCAA/.291 OBA/.314 SLG/.605 OPS), there simply is not much of a chance that the Stros will be equal to or above National League-average in either creating runs or saving runs for the remainder of this season.

Finally, that apparently no one much likes overmatched Manager Cecil Cooper doesn’t help things, either.

So, what should Stros management do for the rest of the season?

Well, the first thing is to keep this club’s mediocrity in perspective. This is only Year Two of the rebuilding of the Stros farm system that owner Drayton McLane started after cleaning house toward the end of the 2007 season. GM Ed Wade and his scouting staff did what appears to be a good job during the 2008 draft (evaluations of baseball drafts are iffy for the first few years after a particular draft) and the most important thing for the club is that management continues strong drafting for at least the next four seasons or so. That’s generally the minimum amount of time necessary to rebuild an MLB farm system.

Meanwhile, Stros management should be allowing what little talent the club has in its farm system develop at the MLB level
to determine whether a couple of diamonds in the rough might emerge. For example, it makes no sense to have slick-fielding Tommy Manzella at AAA Round Rock instead of playing in Houston when moving the immobile Tejada to 3B and dispensing with the unproductive Blum would strengthen the major league club. It’s not as if the light-hitting Manzella is likely to be any less productive at the plate than Blum. And the Stros pitchers would certainly be much more appreciative of Manzella’s fielding at short than Tejada’s.

Similarly, Rodriguez is not the answer at catcher, so the Stros should be preparing to bring J.R. Towles back up from AAA to get a fairer shot than he had last season at playing every day at the MLB level. Towles was effectively jumped from AA to MLB last season and he struggled as most prospects do who are forced to bypass AAA ball. However, Towles has excelled at AAA both at the end of last season and so far this season. Thus, it makes sense to develop that talent at the MLB level this season rather than wasting innings on the over-the-hill Rodriguez and his lackluster backup, Humberto Quintero.

Finally, Stros management should stay on their toes for potentially beneficial trade possibilities. Traditionally, trades are not the way in which to build a good MLB team — you tend to come out on the losing end of trades more often than the winning side. But the Stros do have some attractive assets for contending teams, particularly Oswalt and Berkman. Both are elite-level players, so the Stros should require multiple top prospects in return for trading either of them. That’s not likely to to be offered, but once the playoff races start heating up, you never know.

The bottom line is that the Stros are going to require patience from their fan base for the foreseeable future. Rebuilding in Major League Baseball simply does not happen quickly. So long as the Stros do a better job of drafting and signing prospects than they did in the decade from 1998-2007, and so long as Stros management looks for trades of valuable assets that could help re-stock the farm system, the club’s long track record of success during the Biggio-Bagwell era (only two seasons below .500 winning percentage in the past 17) justifies giving management a reasonable amount of time to right the ship.

By the way, Lisa Gray’s Stros blog remains a reliable source of day-to-day information on the Stros, as is the Chronicle’s Zac Levine’s blog and the Crawfish Boxes blog. However, a new Stros blog — Astros County — also does an excellent job of providing daily information on the Stros. Check it out.

The 2009 season statistics through for the Stros through the first 40 games are below, courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here. The Stros’ 40 man roster is here with links to each individual player’s statistics:

RCAA2

RSAA2

Checking in on J.R. Richard

RichardAccording to this interesting Bugs and Cranks interview of former Stros fireballer J.R. Richard, the 6′ 8" righthander is still holding some grudges against the local ballclub:

Five Astros pitchers have had their numbers retired, including two, Nolan Ryan and Don Wilson, who won fewer games with Houston than you did. Why isn’t your number 50 retired at Minute Maid Park?

That question I cannot answer. I do not have anything to do with that. Really, the same question has often been offered at me — why? But I cannot ask myself too many questions about that, I don’t try to seek the answers, because at this time, I really don’t know. And I have a lot of people, everywhere I go asking me the same question — why? And I have no answer.

Richard’s career was tragically cut short by the stroke he suffered at the age of 30, and it is well-chronicled that the Stros management at the time did a poor job of arranging for a proper diagnosis of Richard’s condition that might have prevented the stroke. That led Richard to undertake some questionable treatment on his own, including a trip to a chiropractor on the day he suffered the stroke.

However, as good as Richard was from the age of 26 to 30, he was not as good as current Stros ace, Roy Oswalt. In those five seasons, Richard saved a total of 73 more runs than an average National League pitcher would have saved pitching the same number of runs as Richard pitched (Runs Saved Against Average — "RSAA"). In his seasons from age 26-30, Roy O’s RSAA was almost 137, almost twice that of Richard’s.

Interestingly, Nolan Ryan, who was Richard’s teammate at the time of Richard’s stroke, had an RSAA for the same period in his career of 77, just slightly better than Richard’s.

The career statistics or Richard, Oswalt and Ryan are below, courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the pitching stats are here:

J.R. Richard Stats

Clear Thinking to begin the week

The Thinker Former Cardinals and Pirates outfielder Andy Van Slyke from this recent interview ($) in Baseball Prospectus:

"Well, [former Astros pitcher] Mike Scott, to me, is the best pitcher to ever pitch in the big leagues. I went 1-for-38 against him.  .  .  . Mike Scott, when he was at the apex of his career, was actually cheating very well. When he threw that forkball, and he scuffed it all up… he threw 97-98 mph, and then he’d throw a forkball that was in the 90s and I just couldn’t hit him."

Q: Were there a lot of guys "cheating very well" in your era?

"I think there was more of it going on back then than there is today. You don’t really see guys scuffing balls—you don’t see guys with sandpaper—but it was very prevalent when I came to the big leagues. The guys… everybody knew who was doing it. It was just hard to catch them."

Arnold Kling on an upcoming debate that he will be having with Robert Kuttner regarding health care finance:

The debate should be about how the cost-benefit trade-offs and rationing will take place. I will argue that most health care spending should be paid for out of pocket, with insurance reimbursement only for very large expenses over a multi-year period. With consumers paying out of pocket, they will take price into account in making their choices, and they will self-ration. The alternative is to have government officials make the choices about what treatments people are to obtain. I do not think that this is a one-sided debate, in which one position is clearly better than the other. But I hope that Kuttner and I can have this debate, rather than go off into red herrings like drug company profits.

The Financial Times’ Clive Cook chimes in on America’s intractable but nonsensical drug prohibition policy ($) (other posts on drug prohibition are here):

How much misery can a policy cause before it is acknowledged as a failure and reversed?

The US “war on drugs” suggests there is no upper limit. The country’s implacable blend of prohibition and punitive criminal justice is wrong-headed in every way: immoral in principle, since it prosecutes victimless crimes, and in practice a disaster of remarkable proportions. Yet for a US politician to suggest wholesale reform of this brainless regime is still seen as an act of reckless self-harm. [.  .  .]

Strict enforcement,  .   .   .  has reduced drug use only modestly – supposing for the moment that this is even a legitimate objective. The collateral damage is of a different order altogether. Violence related to drug crimes has surged in Mexico and in US cities close to the border, giving rise to renewed interest in the topic.  .  .  . [.  .  .]

Few policies manage to fail so comprehensively, and what makes it all the odder is that the US has seen it all before. Everybody understands that alcohol prohibition in the 1920s suffered from many of the same pathologies – albeit on a smaller scale – and was eventually abandoned. [.  .  .]

Is an outbreak of common sense on this subject likely? Unfortunately, no. Only the most daring politicians seem willing to think about it seriously.  .  .   . [.  .  .]

Somebody in the White House should take a look. This national calamity is no laughing matter.

And finally, Mark Steyn notes the insidious nature of encroaching government regulation over citizens:

The proper response of free men to the trivial but degrading impositions of the state is to answer as [gun owner] Pierre Lemieux did. But it requires a kind of 24/7 tenacity few can muster – and the machinery of bureaucracy barely pauses to scoff: In an age of mass communication and computer records, the screen blips for the merest nano-second, and your gun rights disappear. The remorseless, incremental annexation of "individual existence" by technologically all-pervasive micro-regulation is a profound threat to free peoples. But do we have the will to resist it?

Batter up! Stros 2009 Season Preview

minute maid park

Today is Opening Day for the Major League Baseball season and Houston, so it’s time for HCT’s annual preview of the Stros’ upcoming season (previous annual previews since 2004 are here). The Stros opening day roster is here over at Astros.com.

Despite an unlikely 42-24 run in the second half of last season that allowed the Stros to finish second with a 86-75 record behind the Cubs in the National League Central, there is really not much to be excited about in regard to the Stros this season. Last season’s club failed to make the playoffs for the third straight season since the Stros 2005 World Series appearance. This season’s club is substantially weaker than last season’s club and is even less likely to contend for a playoff spot.

As noted in previous previews, the Stros have been a team in decline for a long time even though generally superior pitching during the 2002-2006 seasons masked that downturn. Owner Drayton McLane cleaned house toward the end of the disastrous 2007 season and the club is now firmly in the process of rebuilding its farm system, which had deteriorated into one of MLB’s worst over the latter stages of the Biggio-Bagwell era.  Even though Stros management continues to promote the delusion that the Stros can contend for a National League playoff spot, this season’s club has virtually no chance of doing so absent highly unlikely circumstances.

The Stros’ problems are really fairly simple to explain. Due to the decline in the farm system, and the failure of farm prospects Chris Burke, Morgan Ensberg and Jason Lane to pan out into at least average National League players, the Stros are deficient in a core of good young players who are capable of sustaining successful seasons. The Stros essentially have two very good players — 1B Lance Berkman and SP Roy Oswalt — one above-National League average hitter — LF Carlos Lee — a decent, but not great, closer — RP Jose Valverde — and a player in his prime who has the potential to develop into an above-National League player — RF Hunter Pence. The rest of the club is an amalgamation of below-National League position players and a pitching staff taht will struggle to be National League-average overall this season. That’s not much of a prescription for a successful season.

Last season’s club was a poor hitting club that generated 46 fewer runs than an average National League club would have using the same number of outs ("RCAA"), which was 12th among the 16 National League teams. This season’s club is unlikely to hit as well as last season’s club and the way in which Stros management dealt with the situation reveals why.

In a cost-cutting move during these lean economic times (partly a consequence of over-paying for players during good times), Stros management allowed 3B Ty Wigginton to leave as a free agent after the best season of his career. Inasmuch as the club lacks any ready prospect at the position, the Stros will run a platoon of Geoff Blum and newly-acquired Reds castoff Jeff Keppinger out there every day.

A Blum platoon with over-the-hill Aaron Boone was the original plan, but Boone will miss the season after being diagnosed with a heart ailment and undergoing surgery. Beginning with the 2003 season in which former Stros manager Jimy Williams probably cost the Stros the National League Central title by insisting on platooning Blum with the clearly superior Ensberg, Blum has deteriorated to a point where he is not even close to being an adequate reserve, much less a starter. He has had under a .300 on-base average in five of the past six seasons, has batted .247 BA/.300 OBA/.371 SLG in about 2,000 plate appearances during that stretch, and has generated 100 fewer runs than a National League-average hitter during that period. Thus, the suggestion that Blum is likely to be even close to a National League-average 3B borders on the absurd.

In fact, the Stros would probably be better off moving over-the-hill SS Miguel Tejeda over to 3B and starting slick-fielding minor league SS Tommy Manzella at shortstop, which at least would provide a defensive upgrade. Good defense is going to be particularly important this season given that the Stros’ old and low-strikeout starting rotation. On the other hand, it will take a minor miracle for starters Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz — who have pitched a total of about 150 innings between them over the past three seasons — to pitch a total of 150 innings between them this season. One shudders to think who will make up the difference.

Thus, this is likely to be a brutal season for the Stros. The most likely result is a return to the 73 win-level of the 2007 season and there is a real chance that the improving Pirates may finally move ahead of the Stros and relegate the local club to the National League Central basement. The Cubs again are the class of the NL Central and my sense is that the Reds are the most likely club to make a jump up the standings this season. The good news for the Stros is that neither the Brewers nor the Cardinals have improved, either, so at least there is likely to be a muddle of mediocrity underneath the Cubs in the division. However, there is virtually no chance that the NL Wild-Card playoff team will come out of the NL Central.

As with prior seasons, I will continue my periodic reviews of the Stros during the season ("Stros 2009 Season Review, Part __"). This season I will post them after each quarter of the season, which works out to be after each 40 game segment of the season. So, look for my first season review this season after around mid-May, give or take a few days in the event of postponed games. The best sources for keeping up with the Stros on a day-to-day basis are Lisa Gray’s insightful Stros blog, the reliable Crawfish Boxes blog, and the Chronicle’s Zac Levine’s blog. Zac will also provide reports via Twitter this season.

It’s tough following sports in Houston

mike_hampton As noted earlier here, given all of the incredible disappointments over the years, there must be a special place in Heaven for folks who continue to follow Houston sports teams.

The latest example The Stros haven’t even held their first full team workout in Spring Training yet, but the news is already .  .  . well, .  . not so good.

First, Baseball Prospectus lists precisely one Stros farmhand — catcher Jason Castro — in its Top 100 baseball prospects, and Castro is no. 76 on that list. I guess that new "build from within" program is going to take some time.

Or course, this comes on the heels of an extremely quiet winter for the Stros, who didn’t make any major moves in a depressed free agent market. They aren’t admitting it, but Stros management apparently realizes that this club’s window for competing for a playoff spot is closed.

Although an improbable 36-18 second-half record allowed last season’s Stros to win 86 games and at least con some naive fans into thinking that they actually had a chance for the NL wild-card spot, Baseball ProspectusPECOTA prediction system projects this season’s Stros to contend for the league’s worst team. PECOTA has the Stros topping the woeful Pirates by only one win, 65 to 64.

In view of that, it probably makes sense that the Stros spent most of the off-season cutting costs. In one of their key moves, the Stros withdrew a $27 million three-year offer to reasonably effective pitcher Randy Wolf in favor of a relatively cheap, one-year, $2 million deal with 36 year-old lefty Mike Hampton, who has pitched a total of 147 innings over the past four seasons.

Granted, that’s not much production over that stretch. But that means chances are he’ll break out and be more productive this season, right?

Well, so much for that theory.

Battier Finally, to put a punctuation mark on another dismal day of following Houston sports teams, I flicked on the car radio to a local sports talk show Monday afternoon while driving between meetings.

The two hosts and a caller were addressing Michael LewisNY Sunday Times Magazine article about Rockets forward Shane Battier.

In the article, Lewis provides an in-depth analysis of how the Rockets are on the cutting-edge of modifying traditional statistical analysis to find undervalued players such as Battier. It is clearly one of the most interesting, erudite, well-researched and important articles written about sports so far this year.

Despite that, Here is how the conversation went between the two sports talk radio hosts and their caller:

Caller: "Have you guys read the Michael Lewis article in the New York Times about Shane Battier and the Rockets?"

Host One: "I’ve heard about it, but I haven’t gotten around to reading it yet."

Host Two: "Oh yeah, I also heard about it, but I haven’t read it yet, either. What’s it all about?"

Caller: "Well, I haven’t read the article, either. I was hoping you guys had read it and could tell me about it."

Mercifully, I turned off the radio.

Chalk it up to just another episode in the continuing sordid story of following Houston sports teams.

The real A-Rod tragedy

a-rod As predicted here last year, the names of the MLB players who tested positive for steroids or other performance-enhancing drug use in MLB’s 2003 survey test of 240 players are finally being leaked to the media (previous posts on PED use in sports are here).

That survey test was done under a deal between MLB and the MLB Players’ Association for the purpose of encouraging voluntary and confidential disclosure of PED use by players so that MLB and the Players’ Association could develop a productive program for helping the players get off the juice and monitor future use.

With the leaking of A-Rod’s name and the ensuing public outcry, so much for the notion of encouraging players to get help by assuring confidentiality.

Predictably, the mainstream media and much of the public are castigating Rodriguez, who is an easy target.

Of course, much of that same mainstream media and public contribute to the pathologically competitive MLB culture by regularly reveling in players who risk career-threatening disability by taking painkilling drugs so that they can play through injuries.

But players who used PED’s in in an effort to strengthen their bodies to avoid or minimize the inevitable injuries of the physically-brutal MLB season are pariahs. Go figure.

Meanwhile, the fact that MLB players have been using PED’s for at least the past two generations to enhance their performance is not even mentioned in the mind-numbingly superficial analysis of the PED issue that is being trotted out by most media outlets. Sure, Barry Bonds hit quite a few home runs during a time in which he was apparently using PED’s. But should Pete Rose be denied the record for breaking Ty Cobb’s total base hits standard simply because he used performance-enhancing amphetamines throughout his MLB career?

As noted here last year in connection with release of the Mitchell Commission report, witch hunts, investigations, criminal indictments, morality plays and public shaming episodes are not advancing a dispassionate debate regarding the complex issues that are at the heart of the use of PED’s in baseball and other sports. On a very basic level, it is not even clear that the controlled use of PED’s to enhance athletic performance is as dangerous to health as many of the sports in which the users compete.

A truly civilized society would find a better way to address these issues.

What’s worse?

world_series_trophy Although not many people care much, the 2008 World Series has turned into a first rate mess.

Game Five is currently suspended while the Phillies and Rays players sit around Philadelphia waiting for the inclement weather to end. This after they nearly injured themselves while inexplicably being forced to play 5.5 innings during a driving rainstorm on Monday night. The remainder of the Game Five might be played tonight.

Moreover, Game Four began at 10 p.m. EDT because of rain most of the day on Saturday. That game finished sometime after 2 a.m. Sunday on the east coast. Not exactly the way to keep the young fans interested in the game.

Meanwhile, the umpiring in the series has been atrocious, with multiple of MLB’s supposedly best umpires blowing easy calls and routinely calling strikes on pitches that are clearly out of the strike zone.

And just to make matters utterly unbearable, Fox Sports imposes senseless announcers Joe Buck and Tim McCarver on the few folks watching on television. These two babble on endlessly describing the utterly obvious without ever saying anything remotely insightful. Often, they say things that are simply flat wrong.

singletary1 But as bad as the World Series has been, it’s nothing compared to legendary Baylor and Chicago Bears linebacker Mike Singletary’s first game this past Sunday as interim coach of the San Francisco 49’ers. Coach Singletary’s post-game performance has already become an overnight YouTube sensation and is being touted as one of the all-time great coach tirades.

AP sportswriter Greg Beacham summed up Coach Singletary’s bad first day at the office well:

Mike Singletary ended his head coaching debut by apologizing to 49ers fans above the locker room tunnel. Tight end Vernon Davis got sent to the showers like a petulant teenager, QB J.T. O’Sullivan was benched after his 11th fumble of the season, and the San Francisco defense let a 242-pound fullback catch two long touchdown passes.

The Rays’ Houston connection

tampa-bay-rays In 2005, Forbes named the Tampa Bay Rays as the "most horrific" sports franchise of the modern era and the "worst-managed organization" in Major League Baseball.

A little over three years later, the Rays are in the World Series, which begins tonight in Tampa. This Tim Marchman article explains how the Rays did it, including how several Houstonians made key contributions to turning the club into a winner.

Rays General Manager Andrew Friedman, who orchestrated the turnaround over the past several seasons, is a native Houstonian and the son of long-time Houston attorney Kent Friedman. Rays’ P Scott Kazmir and LF Carl Crawford played their high school baseball in Houston, while P Dan Wheeler was a stalwart reliever on the Stros playoff teams in 2004-05. Finally, a couple of years ago, Friedman had the good sense to hire as an assistant GM Gerry Hunsicker, who remains the best general manager that the Stros have ever had.

Interestingly, it was the Rays’ years of futility that actually fueled their success this season. All those last-place finishes provided the Rays with numerous high draft choices and the club eventually started selecting good prospects.

Inasmuch as most of their key players are young and homegrown, the Rays are playing with Major League Baseball’s second lowest payroll and have given long-term contracts given to their core of talented young players. The deals will allow the team to keep its top players for several more seasons so that the Rays are quite likely to become a dominant force in the American League for years to come.

Finally, what is most remarkable about all this is that the Rays have been able to achieve all this while operating under the worst financial circumstances in MLB.

So, what are the Rays’ chances in the World Series against the Phillies?

Well, the Rays’ pitching staff had a salty runs-saved-against-average ("RSAA") of 89 for the 2008 season, which was 3rd in the American League, but behind the Red Sox RSAA of 92. Similarly, the Rays’ decent runs-created-against-average ("RCAA") of 37 for the season paled in comparison to the Red Sox 103 RCAA. How on earth did the Rays beat the Red Sox in the American League Championship Series?

Answer: A red hot pitching staff. Remember, in a relatively small series of games, good pitching is often enough for a club to win a series over an opponent that likely would be superior over a larger segment of games. Thus, don’t be surprised if the Rays ride that hot pitching staff to what would be the most improbable World Series championship of this generation.